Kevin Rudd: Are China and the US doomed to conflict?
Kevin Rudd - International relations expert
While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming. Full bio
a tale of two cities.
and the other is called Beijing.
shape their future
and the future of China
the quality of our oceans,
the political systems we choose,
of war and peace.
and when she awakes,
not just woken up,
and China is on the march,
this giant of the 21st century?
they start to confront you in a big way.
PPP, market exchange rates --
the largest trading nation,
emitters of carbon in the world.
the world's largest economy,
the throne of England --
of Napoleon's --
as the largest economy
that's going to affect
happens in the future,
you've been smoking something,
we have tonight is,
for the first half of the 21st century?
It's happening persistently.
under the radar,
what's going on in the Middle East,
what's going on with ISIL,
the future of our economies.
comes also a mega-challenge,
means "the beautiful country."
that China has given this country
these two great countries,
to work through war or peace,
called "War and Peace."
growing up in rural Australia
of a herd of dairy cattle
in rural Australia.
These are not built for farming.
that in fact, working in a farm
and China was a very safe remove
to what their mom told them to do?
their mom told them to do?
here we have a huge change.
entering the United Nations.
for me to do was, in fact,
gives you a new name.
for literature or the arts.
to be called Conqueror of the Classics.
Conqueror of the Classics?
and joined the Australian Foreign Service,
there always comes a fall.
to interpret for his first meeting
it's a giant horseshoe.
are the really serious pooh-bahs,
are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs,
began with this inelegant phrase.
are currently enjoying a relationship
a little more classical,
on the other side of the room.
at the head of the horseshoe,
from their faces,
at the other end of the horseshoe
enjoying a relationship
Australia and China
I was asked to interpret.
there's a wisdom, which is,
about this extraordinary civilization
of the Peloponnesian Wars.
and the fear that this inspired in Sparta
something called the Thucydides Trap.
and he's not Greek. He's Chinese.
He wrote "The Art of War,"
it's along these lines:
appear where you are not expected."
for China and the United States.
His name's Graham Allison.
at the Kennedy School
at the moment, which is,
about the inevitably of war
and established great powers
of China-U.S. relations?
is explore 15 cases in history
of interdependence and globalization.
tell us that in fact,
the greatest point
in this great question
towards the United States,
and the rest of the West.
as if it's been humiliated
through a hundred years of history,
carved China up into little pieces,
it got to the '20s and '30s,
on the streets of Shanghai.
if you saw that sign appear?
at the Peace Conference in Paris,
around in the world,
to what would happen to China.
the Chinese to this day believe
of their political system
from those of us who come
to this day is seeking
that it is being contained
with strategic partnerships with the U.S.
the Chinese have this feeling
and in their gut of guts
the problems in our own system,
to point the finger elsewhere,
we in the collective West
of one hand clapping.
and that's called the U.S.
respond to all of the above?
is the U.S. containing China,
the Soviet Union. That was containment."
in the U.S. and the West
into the global economy,
into the World Trade Organization.
of intellectual property rights,
on U.S. and global firms.
says that the Chinese political system
and rule of law that we enjoy
what does the United States say?
when it has sufficient power,
in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia,
the rules of the global order.
it's just fine and dandy,
is given those deep-rooted feelings,
and thought patterns,
ways of thinking,
for a common future between these two?
for a common purpose.
that we disagree on,
that doesn't enable
to break into war or conflict
the diplomatic skills to solve them.
bilateral, regional and global engagement
for all of humankind.
capable of cooperation in Asia,
at the end of last year
rather than fists apart.
if you've got a common mechanism
are they deliverable alone?
tells us we need to do,
in the question back home
together two peoples
a whole lot in common in the past.
to Australia's indigenous peoples.
in the Australian government,
and for the Australian people.
towards the first Australians,
said we were sorry.
is staring in the faces
of when they were five years old
from their parents,
to then be able to embrace
as they came into the parliament building,
had ever kissed her in her life,
this family saying to me,
from the far North down to Canberra
after the apology for a milkshake."
quietly, tentatively, gingerly,
every one of the white folks,
of these people in Australia.
brothers and sisters,
all these problems together,
there was a new beginning
in terms of the great question
to address this evening,
of U.S.-China relations?
there's a common narrative,
through regular summitry
and to make them better.
to reimagine the possibilities
future engagement in the world.
to take a leap of faith
the Chinese Dream.
with the term "the American Dream."
of something we might also call
That's my challenge to China.
and where there is imagination
Thanks so much for that.
have a role to play in this bridging.
to speak to both sides.
do best is organize the drinks,
and we suggest this and suggest that,
who are friends
America and China,
where they come from and what they think,
the Chinese folks
this TED Talk at some time
can actually make a huge difference.
we can make a small contribution.
my friend. Thank you.
About the speaker:Kevin Rudd - International relations expert
While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming.
Why you should listen
Drawing on a deep knowledge of Chinese culture, language and history (and as a Senior Fellow with Harvard’s Belfer Center), Kevin Rudd and his colleagues study alternate courses for US-China relations that guide us away from a seemingly inevitable confrontation. As Prime Minister during the global financial crisis (and as one of the founders of the G20), Rudd helped keep Australia out of recession with a stimulus strategy lauded by the IMF as exemplary among its member states. Rudd is also President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank specializing in Asian affairs.
In March 2015, Rudd published "China under Xi Jinping: Alternative Futures for U.S.-China Relations," a series of three addresses on American and Chinese values, perceptions, interests, and strategic intentions, and their impact on the possibility of developing a common narrative for U.S.-China relations for the future.
Kevin Rudd | Speaker | TED.com