TED2015
Kevin Rudd: Are China and the US doomed to conflict?
陸克文: 中國和美國註定要發生衝突嗎 ?
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Readability: 3.8
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前澳洲總理，又是在中國求學多年的學生──陸克文──在過去數十年裡，以其獨特觀點來觀察中國力量的崛起。他問道：「中國日盛的野心是否將無可挽回地引發與其他主要強國產生衝突？」他給出了不同的故事來做建議。
Kevin Rudd - International relations expert
While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming. Full bio
While studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
G'day, my name's Kevin.
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大家好！我是凱文，
00:14
I'm from Australia. I'm here to help.
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我來自澳洲，我是來救你們的！
00:17
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
00:20
Tonight, I want to talk about
a tale of two cities.
a tale of two cities.
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今晚我想要談另一本雙城記，
00:24
One of those cities is called Washington,
and the other is called Beijing.
and the other is called Beijing.
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一個是華盛頓另一個則是北京。
00:30
Because how these two capitals
shape their future
shape their future
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因為這兩大首都
要如何打造它們共同的未來 ，
要如何打造它們共同的未來 ，
00:36
and the future of the United States
and the future of China
and the future of China
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美國的未來和中國的未來，
00:39
doesn't just affect those two countries,
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不只是影響這兩個國家，
00:41
it affects all of us
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還會影響到我們每一個人；
00:43
in ways, perhaps, we've never thought of:
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也許透過我們從沒想到過的方式，
00:46
the air we breathe, the water we drink,
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諸如我們呼吸的空氣、所喝的水、
00:51
the fish we eat,
the quality of our oceans,
the quality of our oceans,
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所吃的魚、海洋的品質、
00:54
the languages we speak in the future,
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未來所使用的語言、
00:57
the jobs we have,
the political systems we choose,
the political systems we choose,
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所擁有的工作、所選擇的政治制度，
01:00
and, of course, the great questions
of war and peace.
of war and peace.
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還有對戰爭及和平的大哉問等等。
01:06
You see that bloke? He's French.
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看見這個人沒 ? 他是法國人，
01:09
His name is Napoleon.
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他叫「拿破崙」，
01:11
A couple of hundred years ago,
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數百年前他做出這個
令人意想不到的預言：
令人意想不到的預言：
01:12
he made this extraordinary projection:
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「中國是沉睡中的獅子，
01:15
"China is a sleeping lion,
and when she awakes,
and when she awakes,
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當她醒來時，這個世界將會晃動！」
01:17
the world will shake."
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01:19
Napoleon got a few things wrong;
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拿破崙以前做錯過一些事，
01:22
he got this one absolutely right.
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他講這句話卻是一分不差的，
01:24
Because China is today
not just woken up,
not just woken up,
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因為今天中國不只醒來了，
01:29
China has stood up
and China is on the march,
and China is on the march,
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還站了起來，向前邁進。
01:32
and the question for us all
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對我們所有人來講，
01:34
is where will China go
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問題是中國會往那裡去 ?
01:36
and how do we engage
this giant of the 21st century?
this giant of the 21st century?
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還有我們該如何與這個
二十一世紀的巨頭打交道 ?
二十一世紀的巨頭打交道 ?
01:43
You start looking at the numbers,
they start to confront you in a big way.
they start to confront you in a big way.
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你們正看著的這些數據，
會極大地挑戰你的設想，
會極大地挑戰你的設想，
01:47
It's projected that China will become,
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數據預測中國
在任何計算方法之下 ，
在任何計算方法之下 ，
01:50
by whichever measure --
PPP, market exchange rates --
PPP, market exchange rates --
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例如購買力平價、市場匯率等，
01:53
the largest economy in the world
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在未來的十年內，
01:55
over the course of the decade ahead.
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將會成為世界上最大的經濟體。
01:58
They're already
the largest trading nation,
the largest trading nation,
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中國已經是最大的貿易國家、
02:00
already the largest exporting nation,
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最大的出口國、
02:02
already the largest manufacturing nation,
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最大的製造國家，
02:04
and they're also the biggest
emitters of carbon in the world.
emitters of carbon in the world.
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還是世界上最大的碳排放體，
02:08
America comes second.
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美國則是第二大的碳排放體。
02:11
So if China does become
the world's largest economy,
the world's largest economy,
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所以如果中國成為了
世界上最大的經濟體，
世界上最大的經濟體，
02:16
think about this:
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想一下這情景，
02:18
It'll be the first time
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這將會是第一次，
02:21
since this guy was on
the throne of England --
the throne of England --
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打從這位老兄 ─ 喬治三世
貴為英國國王以來 ，
貴為英國國王以來 ，
02:26
George III, not a good friend
of Napoleon's --
of Napoleon's --
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他跟破崙的交情不太好，
02:29
that in the world we will have
as the largest economy
as the largest economy
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我們即將有世界最大的一個經濟體
02:35
a non-English speaking country,
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既乃非英語系國家、
02:37
a non-Western country,
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非西方的國家、
02:39
a non-liberal democratic country.
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非自由民主制國家。
02:42
And if you don't think
that's going to affect
that's going to affect
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假使你不認為這會影響到
02:44
the way in which the world
happens in the future,
happens in the future,
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未來會發生在世界的事，
02:47
then personally, I think
you've been smoking something,
you've been smoking something,
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我單方面認為你可能抽過什麼煙了，
02:50
and it doesn't mean you're from Colorado.
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這不代表你是來自科羅拉多州啦。
02:54
So in short, the question
we have tonight is,
we have tonight is,
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簡言之今晚我們的問題就是
02:57
how do we understand this mega-change,
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我們要如何來認清這個巨大的變動？
03:00
which I believe to be the biggest change
for the first half of the 21st century?
for the first half of the 21st century?
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我認為這會是二十一世紀
上半世紀最大的變動。
上半世紀最大的變動。
03:05
It'll affect so many things.
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這會影響到很多事情，
03:08
It will go to the absolute core.
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這絕對會是關鍵，
03:10
It's happening quietly.
It's happening persistently.
It's happening persistently.
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變動正安靜、持續地在上演，
03:12
It's happening in some senses
under the radar,
under the radar,
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正在你掌握不到的地方上演，
03:15
as we are all preoccupied with
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當我們全心關注在烏克蘭會怎樣、
03:17
what's going in Ukraine,
what's going on in the Middle East,
what's going on in the Middle East,
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中東會怎樣、
03:19
what's going on with ISIS,
what's going on with ISIL,
what's going on with ISIL,
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伊斯蘭國會怎樣、
03:22
what's happening with
the future of our economies.
the future of our economies.
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我們經濟的未來又會怎樣？
03:25
This is a slow and quiet revolution.
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這是緩慢、安靜的變革。
03:29
And with a mega-change
comes also a mega-challenge,
comes also a mega-challenge,
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巨大的變動同時會帶來巨大的挑戰，
03:35
and the mega-challenge is this:
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而巨大的挑戰就是這兩個超級城市 ─
03:37
Can these two great countries,
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03:39
China and the United States --
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中國與美國，
03:41
China,
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中國 ─
03:47
the Middle Kingdom,
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天下中心的國度；
03:49
and the United States,
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還有，美國
03:54
Měiguó --
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其中文意思是美麗的國家，
03:57
which in Chinese, by the way,
means "the beautiful country."
means "the beautiful country."
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04:00
Think about that -- that's the name
that China has given this country
that China has given this country
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這個名字是早在一百年前
中國幫它取的。
中國幫它取的。
04:04
for more than a hundred years.
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04:06
Whether these two great civilizations,
these two great countries,
these two great countries,
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這兩個偉大的文明、國家，
04:09
can in fact carve out a common future
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是否可以在現實中
為他們自己以及這世界
為他們自己以及這世界
04:14
for themselves and for the world?
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開創出共同的未來？
04:16
In short, can we carve out a future
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簡言之我們能否開創出
04:19
which is peaceful and mutually prosperous,
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和平共榮的未來呢？
04:23
or are we looking at a great challenge
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還是我們即將要面臨
04:24
of war or peace?
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要戰爭或是和平的巨大挑戰？
04:27
And I have 15 minutes
to work through war or peace,
to work through war or peace,
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而我有15分鐘的時間
來講要戰爭或是和平，
來講要戰爭或是和平，
04:29
which is a little less time
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比起他們給這傢伙寫
「戰爭與和平」這本書的時間，
「戰爭與和平」這本書的時間，
04:33
than they gave this guy to write a book
called "War and Peace."
called "War and Peace."
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我們的時間有點緊湊！
04:38
People ask me, why is it that a kid
growing up in rural Australia
growing up in rural Australia
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人們問我為什麼一個
在澳洲鄉間長大的小孩
在澳洲鄉間長大的小孩
04:42
got interested in learning Chinese?
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會想要學習中文呢？
04:44
Well, there are two reasons for that.
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我有兩個理由，
04:46
Here's the first of them.
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這是其中第一個：貝蒂牛
04:47
That's Betsy the cow.
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04:49
Now, Betsy the cow was one
of a herd of dairy cattle
of a herd of dairy cattle
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貝蒂牛是一種乳牛，
04:53
that I grew up with on a farm
in rural Australia.
in rural Australia.
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我在澳洲鄉間與牠們一起長大，
04:57
See those hands there?
These are not built for farming.
These are not built for farming.
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看到這兩隻手了嗎？
它們並不是用來做農事的。
它們並不是用來做農事的。
05:00
So very early on, I discovered
that in fact, working in a farm
that in fact, working in a farm
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所以從很早開始我就發現了，
事實上在農場工作並不適合我，
05:04
was not designed for me,
and China was a very safe remove
and China was a very safe remove
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而中國是一個非常安全的地方
能遠離在澳洲農場工作的生活。
能遠離在澳洲農場工作的生活。
05:07
from any career in Australian farm life.
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05:10
Here's the second reason.
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這是第二個理由：我媽媽
05:12
That's my mom.
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05:12
Anyone here ever listen
to what their mom told them to do?
to what their mom told them to do?
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這裡有誰曾經認真聽過媽媽的話？
05:15
Everyone ever do what
their mom told them to do?
their mom told them to do?
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有誰曾經就照著去做呢？
05:18
I rarely did,
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我很少做到過。
05:20
but what my mom said to me was,
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但是我媽媽跟我說的話，
05:22
one day, she handed me a newspaper,
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有天她遞給了我一份報紙，
05:25
a headline which said,
here we have a huge change.
here we have a huge change.
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頭條告訴我們現在有了重大的變動，
05:30
And that change is China
entering the United Nations.
entering the United Nations.
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變動就是中國即將要加入聯合國，
05:36
1971, I had just turned 14 years of age,
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在 1971 年我剛滿14歲，
05:39
and she handed me this headline.
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她遞給了我這則頭條新聞，
05:41
And she said, "Understand this,
learn this,
learn this,
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她說看懂來、記起來，
05:43
because it's going to affect your future."
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因為這將會影響到你的未來！
05:46
So being a very good student of history,
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因此身為一個優秀的歷史系學生，
05:50
I decided that the best thing
for me to do was, in fact,
for me to do was, in fact,
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我決定好我最該做的事情，
05:53
to go off and learn Chinese.
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就是去學中文。
05:55
The great thing about learning Chinese
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學中文最棒的事情就是
中文老師會幫你取一個新名字，
中文老師會幫你取一個新名字，
05:57
is that your Chinese teacher
gives you a new name.
gives you a new name.
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06:00
And so they gave me this name:
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因此他們幫我取這個新名字，
06:03
Kè, which means to overcome or to conquer,
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「克」：代表克服或是征服，
06:08
and Wén, and that's the character
for literature or the arts.
for literature or the arts.
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「文」：就是代表文學或藝術的字，
06:13
Kè Wén, Conqueror of the Classics.
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「克文」：征服經典文學的人，
06:17
Any of you guys called "Kevin"?
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你們有誰叫「凱文」的嗎？
06:20
It's a major lift from being called Kevin
to be called Conqueror of the Classics.
to be called Conqueror of the Classics.
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這是個重大的升等，從「凱文」到
被叫成「征服經典文學的人」。
被叫成「征服經典文學的人」。
06:24
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:25
I've been called Kevin all my life.
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我已經被叫「凱文」一輩子了，
06:27
Have you been called Kevin all your life?
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你們是不是也已經被叫
「凱文」一輩子了呢？
「凱文」一輩子了呢？
06:29
Would you prefer to be called
Conqueror of the Classics?
Conqueror of the Classics?
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你會不會更喜歡被叫成
「征服經典文學的人」呢？
「征服經典文學的人」呢？
06:32
And so I went off after that
and joined the Australian Foreign Service,
and joined the Australian Foreign Service,
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所以後來我就飛去了中國，
進入了澳洲外事館工作，
進入了澳洲外事館工作，
06:36
but here is where pride -- before pride,
there always comes a fall.
there always comes a fall.
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但那裡人外有人、天外有天，
你總有踢到鐵板的時候。
你總有踢到鐵板的時候。
06:43
So there I am in the embassy in Beijing,
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我是在北京的澳洲外館，
06:45
off to the Great Hall of the People
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就在人民大會堂的旁邊，
06:47
with our ambassador, who had asked me
to interpret for his first meeting
to interpret for his first meeting
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陪著我們的大使，他讓我為他在
人民大會堂的第一場會議做翻譯。
人民大會堂的第一場會議做翻譯。
06:51
in the Great Hall of the People.
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06:53
And so there was I.
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所以我就在那裡，
06:54
If you've been to a Chinese meeting,
it's a giant horseshoe.
it's a giant horseshoe.
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假使你曾經參加過中國人的會議，
那是大型的U型桌，
那是大型的U型桌，
06:57
At the head of the horsehoe
are the really serious pooh-bahs,
are the really serious pooh-bahs,
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在 U 型桌頂部是非常顯赫的
高官領導人，
高官領導人，
07:00
and down the end of the horseshoe
are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs,
are the not-so-serious pooh-bahs,
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而在桌尾則是沒那麼顯赫的高官領導人、
07:03
the junior woodchucks like me.
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以及像我一般的小助理們。
07:05
And so the ambassador
began with this inelegant phrase.
began with this inelegant phrase.
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而大使先生一開頭就講了句粗俗的話，
07:08
He said, "China and Australia
are currently enjoying a relationship
are currently enjoying a relationship
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他說：「中國與澳洲最近正享受著
07:13
of unprecedented closeness."
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前所未見的親密關係！」
07:16
And I thought to myself,
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我自己想說
07:18
"That sounds clumsy. That sounds odd.
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這聽起來很不得體又奇怪，
07:22
I will improve it."
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我要給它修改一下。
07:24
Note to file: Never do that.
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記進你的筆記裡：「千萬別做這種事！」
07:27
It needed to be a little more elegant,
a little more classical,
a little more classical,
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這句話需要更優雅、更經典一些，
07:30
so I rendered it as follows.
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所以我翻譯如下：
07:32
[In Chinese]
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「 澳、中關係最近處於
高潮關係 [中語]」，
高潮關係 [中語]」，
07:37
There was a big pause
on the other side of the room.
on the other side of the room.
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整個房間的其他角落都停頓了，
07:40
You could see the giant pooh-bahs
at the head of the horseshoe,
at the head of the horseshoe,
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你可以看見巨型U形桌頂部的
高官領導人們整個臉色翻白，
高官領導人們整個臉色翻白，
07:44
the blood visibly draining
from their faces,
from their faces,
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07:47
and the junior woodchucks
at the other end of the horseshoe
at the other end of the horseshoe
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在 U 型桌尾端另一邊的小助理，
07:50
engaged in peals of
unrestrained laughter.
unrestrained laughter.
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發出了毫不節制的宏亮笑聲。
07:53
Because when I rendered his sentence,
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因為當我在翻譯大使的句子 ，
07:55
"Australia and China are
enjoying a relationship
enjoying a relationship
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「澳洲與中國正享受著
07:57
of unprecedented closeness,"
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前所未見的親密關係。」
07:59
in fact, what I said was that
Australia and China
Australia and China
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我實際上所說的卻是「澳洲與中國
08:02
were now experiencing fantastic orgasm.
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現在正體驗著絕妙的性高潮」，
08:05
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:11
That was the last time
I was asked to interpret.
I was asked to interpret.
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那是我最後一次被要求做翻譯。
08:15
But in that little story,
there's a wisdom, which is,
there's a wisdom, which is,
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但是在這個小故事裡
有讓人長智慧的事，
有讓人長智慧的事，
08:17
as soon as you think you know something
about this extraordinary civilization
about this extraordinary civilization
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就是當你認為你瞭解了這個
有連續五千年歷史之
不凡文化的某些東西，
不凡文化的某些東西，
08:21
of 5,000 years of continuing history,
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08:23
there's always something new to learn.
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總還是有新東西得學。
08:27
History is against us
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歷史是跟我們反向的，
08:29
when it comes to the U.S. and China
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當美國和中國
08:31
forging a common future together.
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要一起打造出一個共同的未來，
08:34
This guy up here?
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看到上頭這個人沒？
08:35
He's not Chinese and he's not American.
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他不是中國人、也不是美國人，
08:37
He's Greek. His name's Thucydides.
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他是希臘人名叫「修昔底德」，
08:39
He wrote the history
of the Peloponnesian Wars.
of the Peloponnesian Wars.
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他寫了「伯羅奔尼撒戰爭史」，
08:42
And he made this extraordinary observation
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就雅典與斯巴達的關係
他做出這個不凡的觀察 ：
他做出這個不凡的觀察 ：
08:45
about Athens and Sparta.
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08:47
"It was the rise of Athens
and the fear that this inspired in Sparta
and the fear that this inspired in Sparta
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「正是雅典的崛起以及斯巴達被引發之恐懼，
08:50
that made war inevitable."
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使得戰爭避無可避。」
08:52
And hence, a whole literature about
something called the Thucydides Trap.
something called the Thucydides Trap.
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因此整本書講的是
所謂的「修昔底德陷阱」。
所謂的「修昔底德陷阱」。
08:57
This guy here? He's not American
and he's not Greek. He's Chinese.
and he's not Greek. He's Chinese.
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這傢伙他不是美國人、不是希臘人，
他是個中國人，
他是個中國人，
09:01
His name is Sun Tzu.
He wrote "The Art of War,"
He wrote "The Art of War,"
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他的名字是「孫子」，
他寫了「孫子兵法」；
他寫了「孫子兵法」；
09:03
and if you see his statement underneath,
it's along these lines:
it's along these lines:
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如果大家看看下面的銘文，
就明白他文章的深意：
就明白他文章的深意：
09:07
"Attack him where he is unprepared,
appear where you are not expected."
appear where you are not expected."
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「攻其不備，出其不意」
09:12
Not looking good so far
for China and the United States.
for China and the United States.
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用在中國和美國之間
好像不太好。
好像不太好。
09:16
This guy is an American.
His name's Graham Allison.
His name's Graham Allison.
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這位老兄是美國人，
叫做「葛雷厄姆‧艾利森」，
叫做「葛雷厄姆‧艾利森」，
09:19
In fact, he's a teacher
at the Kennedy School
at the Kennedy School
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事實上他是哈佛大學
甘迺迪政府學院的老師，
甘迺迪政府學院的老師，
09:21
over there in Boston.
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就在波士頓那邊，
09:23
He's working on a single project
at the moment, which is,
at the moment, which is,
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他此時正在做單一計畫的研究：
09:26
does the Thucydides Trap
about the inevitably of war
about the inevitably of war
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「在崛起的力量與既有最大力量之間，
09:29
between rising powers
and established great powers
and established great powers
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有關戰爭避無可避的修昔底德陷阱，
09:32
apply to the future
of China-U.S. relations?
of China-U.S. relations?
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是否可適用於未來的中美關係？」
09:35
It's a core question.
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這是個關鍵的問題。
09:36
And what Graham has done
is explore 15 cases in history
is explore 15 cases in history
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葛雷厄姆所做的就是探究
自從西元1,500年以來
自從西元1,500年以來
09:40
since the 1500s
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歷史裡的15個案例，
09:43
to establish what the precedents are.
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來確定這些先例的本質；
09:45
And in 11 out of 15 of them,
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讓我來告訴你，
09:47
let me tell you,
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它們 15 個裡面有 11 個，
09:49
they've ended in catastrophic war.
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是完覆於災禍性之戰爭。
09:53
You may say, "But Kevin --
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你可能會說：「不過凱文
09:56
or Conqueror of the Classics --
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或是征服經典文學的人，
09:58
that was the past.
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那是往事了，
10:00
We live now in a world
of interdependence and globalization.
of interdependence and globalization.
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我們現在是活在一個
互相依靠和全球化的世界，
互相依靠和全球化的世界，
10:04
It could never happen again."
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不可能會再發生那種事的啦！」
10:05
Guess what?
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你猜怎麼著，
10:06
The economic historians
tell us that in fact,
tell us that in fact,
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經濟歷史學家告訴我們，
事實上我們達到經濟整合和
全球化之最高境界，
全球化之最高境界，
10:09
the time which we reached
the greatest point
the greatest point
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10:11
of economic integration and globalization
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10:14
was in 1914,
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時間是在 1914年，
10:17
just before that happened, World War I,
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剛好在「第一次世界大戰」發生前，
10:21
a sobering reflection from history.
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那是一個來自歷史發人深省的思辨。
10:24
So if we are engaged
in this great question
in this great question
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因此要是我們要探討
10:27
of how China thinks, feels,
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中國、美國是如何思考、感受、
以及定位自己與對方的關係，
以及定位自己與對方的關係，
10:30
and positions itself
towards the United States,
towards the United States,
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10:34
and the reverse,
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10:35
how do we get to the baseline
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我們如何營造出
10:37
of how these two countries
and civilizations
and civilizations
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讓這兩個國家合作之基礎。
10:40
can possibly work together?
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10:43
Let me first go to, in fact,
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讓我先來講
10:46
China's views of the U.S.
and the rest of the West.
and the rest of the West.
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在現實中，中國對美國
和其他西方國家的觀點，
和其他西方國家的觀點，
10:48
Number one: China feels
as if it's been humiliated
as if it's been humiliated
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第一點、中國覺得是讓人糟蹋了，
10:51
at the hands of the West
through a hundred years of history,
through a hundred years of history,
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在長達一百年歷史的西方折磨，
10:54
beginning with the Opium Wars.
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始於「鴉片戰爭」，
10:56
When after that, the Western powers
carved China up into little pieces,
carved China up into little pieces,
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其後西方列強分割中國使其破碎，
11:00
so that by the time
it got to the '20s and '30s,
it got to the '20s and '30s,
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這時候時間來到了20至30年代，
11:02
signs like this one appeared
on the streets of Shanghai.
on the streets of Shanghai.
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像這種的標語出現在上海的街頭上 ：
11:05
["No dogs and Chinese allowed"]
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[ 狗與中國人禁止進入！]
11:06
How would you feel if you were Chinese,
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要是在自己的國家看到了這標語，
11:08
in your own country,
if you saw that sign appear?
if you saw that sign appear?
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假若你是中國人會有什麼感受呢？
11:11
China also believes and feels
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中國也相信和感受到
11:15
as if, in the events of 1919,
at the Peace Conference in Paris,
at the Peace Conference in Paris,
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如同 1919 年在「巴黎和會」上的事項，
11:20
when Germany's colonies were given back
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當時德國的殖民地都被還給
世界上的所有國家，
世界上的所有國家，
11:21
to all sorts of countries
around in the world,
around in the world,
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11:24
what about German colonies in China?
225
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1858
而德國在中國的殖民地怎麼了？
11:25
They were, in fact, given to Japan.
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它們被還給了日本，
11:28
When Japan then invaded China in the 1930s
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當日本在1930 年代侵略中國，
11:32
the world looked away and was indifferent
to what would happen to China.
to what would happen to China.
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這世界當成眼不見為淨，
並且對中國的事和未來很冷淡，
並且對中國的事和未來很冷淡，
11:36
And then, on top of that,
the Chinese to this day believe
the Chinese to this day believe
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此外直到今天中國堅信
11:39
that the United States and the West
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美國和西方
11:40
do not accept the legitimacy
of their political system
of their political system
231
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並不承認其政治體系的正當性，
11:43
because it's so radically different
from those of us who come
from those of us who come
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2890
因為其大大有異於那些自由民主國家，
11:46
from liberal democracies,
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11:47
and believe that the United States
to this day is seeking
to this day is seeking
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2816
而且堅信美國直到今天
還試圖要破壞他們的政治體系，
還試圖要破壞他們的政治體系，
11:50
to undermine their political system.
235
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2438
11:52
China also believes
that it is being contained
that it is being contained
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中國也堅信它被美國的盟友，
11:55
by U.S. allies and by those
with strategic partnerships with the U.S.
with strategic partnerships with the U.S.
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4853
和那些中國周邊與美國
做策略同盟的國家給制約住。
做策略同盟的國家給制約住。
12:00
right around its periphery.
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2624
此外中國人在其內心深處、
骨子裡有這種感覺，
骨子裡有這種感覺，
12:03
And beyond all that,
the Chinese have this feeling
the Chinese have this feeling
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2484
12:05
in their heart of hearts
and in their gut of guts
and in their gut of guts
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3228
那些合稱西方的我們
12:08
that those of us in the collective West
241
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4202
12:13
are just too damned arrogant.
242
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3692
不過就是傲慢至極罷了，
12:16
That is, we don't recognize
the problems in our own system,
the problems in our own system,
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3947
我們並沒有找出自身體系上、
政治上和經濟上的問題
政治上和經濟上的問題
12:20
in our politics and our economics,
244
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1858
但卻很會來指責別人，
12:22
and are very quick
to point the finger elsewhere,
to point the finger elsewhere,
245
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2391
12:25
and believe that, in fact,
we in the collective West
we in the collective West
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3762
中國還認為合稱西方的我們
12:28
are guilty of a great bunch of hypocrisy.
247
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3808
在一大串的偽善行為裡是有過錯的。
12:32
Of course, in international relations,
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3413
當然了，
國際關係一個巴掌是拍不響的，
12:36
it's not just the sound
of one hand clapping.
of one hand clapping.
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3959
12:40
There's another country too,
and that's called the U.S.
and that's called the U.S.
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2682
也還有另一個的國家，
它就叫做「美國」。
它就叫做「美國」。
12:42
So how does the U.S.
respond to all of the above?
respond to all of the above?
251
750688
2554
那麼美國如何回應所有以上這些呢？
12:45
The U.S. has a response to each of those.
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2136
美國對以上每一點都做了回應；
12:47
On the question of
is the U.S. containing China,
is the U.S. containing China,
253
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2503
在美國是否制約著中國這問題上，
12:49
they say, "No, look at the history of
the Soviet Union. That was containment."
the Soviet Union. That was containment."
254
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3678
美國說：「才不是呢，
看看蘇聯的歷史，那才叫制約！
看看蘇聯的歷史，那才叫制約！
12:53
Instead, what we have done
in the U.S. and the West
in the U.S. and the West
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相反地我們美國和西方
12:55
is welcome China
into the global economy,
into the global economy,
256
763969
1974
歡迎中國進到全球經濟裡頭，
12:57
and on top of that, welcome them
into the World Trade Organization.
into the World Trade Organization.
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3436
除此之外還歡迎他們進入
世界貿易組織。」
世界貿易組織。」
13:01
The U.S. and the West say China cheats
258
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1873
美國和西方說中國在
智慧財產權的問題上作假，
智慧財產權的問題上作假，
13:03
on the question
of intellectual property rights,
of intellectual property rights,
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2306
13:05
and through cyberattacks
on U.S. and global firms.
on U.S. and global firms.
260
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4319
而且透由網路來打擊美國
和跨國的公司；
和跨國的公司；
13:09
Furthermore, the United States
says that the Chinese political system
says that the Chinese political system
261
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3576
更甚者美國說中國的政治體系
徹底就是個錯誤，
徹底就是個錯誤，
13:13
is fundamentally wrong
262
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2879
13:16
because it's at such fundamental variance
263
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3297
因為它在本質上是如此殊異於
13:19
to the human rights, democracy,
and rule of law that we enjoy
and rule of law that we enjoy
264
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3251
美國與合稱西方的我們所享有的
人權、民主、法制；
人權、民主、法制；
13:22
in the U.S. and the collective West.
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2624
13:25
And on top of all the above,
what does the United States say?
what does the United States say?
266
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3157
除此以外，美國還說了什麼？
13:28
That they fear that China will,
when it has sufficient power,
when it has sufficient power,
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5108
美國擔心當中國有了足夠力量
13:33
establish a sphere of influence
in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia,
in Southeast Asia and wider East Asia,
268
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4017
將會營造一個影響
東南亞和大東亞的氛圍
東南亞和大東亞的氛圍
13:37
boot the United States out,
269
805786
1904
要把美國趕走，
13:39
and in time, when it's powerful enough,
270
807690
2020
當中國夠強大了，
13:41
unilaterally seek to change
the rules of the global order.
the rules of the global order.
271
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4009
就會試圖單方面地來
改變全球秩序的常規。
改變全球秩序的常規。
13:45
So apart from all of that,
it's just fine and dandy,
it's just fine and dandy,
272
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2702
除了以上講的這些之外，
美中關係還是良好的，
13:48
the U.S.-China relationship.
273
816421
1394
13:49
No real problems there.
274
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2205
並沒有實質的問題存在。
13:52
The challenge, though,
is given those deep-rooted feelings,
is given those deep-rooted feelings,
275
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4922
然而，挑戰正是那些根深蒂固的感受，
13:56
those deep-rooted emotions
and thought patterns,
and thought patterns,
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2995
那些根深蒂固的情緒以及想法，
13:59
what the Chinese call "Sīwéi,"
ways of thinking,
ways of thinking,
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2810
也就是中國人所謂的「思維」，
亦即思考的方式，
亦即思考的方式，
14:02
how can we craft a basis
for a common future between these two?
for a common future between these two?
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我們可以如何打造出
兩者之間共同未來的基礎？
兩者之間共同未來的基礎？
14:07
I argue simply this:
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我只想講這個：
14:08
We can do it on the basis on a framework
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「為了共同目標，在有建設性之
務實基礎上，我們做得到。」
務實基礎上，我們做得到。」
14:10
of constructive realism
for a common purpose.
for a common purpose.
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14:15
What do I mean by that?
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什麼意思呢？
14:17
Be realistic about the things
that we disagree on,
that we disagree on,
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對我們不認同的事情上要務實，
14:19
and a management approach
that doesn't enable
that doesn't enable
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而且運用方法讓這些差異
14:21
any one of those differences
to break into war or conflict
to break into war or conflict
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無法引起戰事或衝突，
14:24
until we've acquired
the diplomatic skills to solve them.
the diplomatic skills to solve them.
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直到我們終於具備可解決
這些問題的外交技巧。
這些問題的外交技巧。
14:28
Be constructive in areas of the
bilateral, regional and global engagement
bilateral, regional and global engagement
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在這兩大國之間雙邊、區域、
14:32
between the two,
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全球參與的領域要有建設性，
14:33
which will make a difference
for all of humankind.
for all of humankind.
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那將會對所有人類有利；
14:36
Build a regional institution
capable of cooperation in Asia,
capable of cooperation in Asia,
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成立區域性的機構，一個亞太團體，
14:40
an Asia-Pacific community.
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讓亞太區域的合作可行。
14:42
And worldwide, act further,
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870034
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在全球有更大的動作，
14:44
like you've begun to do
at the end of last year
at the end of last year
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2624
就像你們去年年底開始那樣
14:47
by striking out against climate change
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攜手協力來抵制氣候變化，
14:49
with hands joined together
rather than fists apart.
rather than fists apart.
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而非以拳頭相對。
14:53
Of course, all that happens
if you've got a common mechanism
if you've got a common mechanism
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當然，這前提是
你們有一個共有的機制，
你們有一個共有的機制，
14:56
and political will to achieve the above.
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和政治意志來達成這一事業，
14:58
These things are deliverable.
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這些事是可以實現的。
15:01
But the question is,
are they deliverable alone?
are they deliverable alone?
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不過問題是：
單邊努力是否能實現這些？
單邊努力是否能實現這些？
15:05
This is what our head
tells us we need to do,
tells us we need to do,
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理智告訴我們應該要做這些事，
15:07
but what about our heart?
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但是我們的內心呢？
15:09
I have a little experience
in the question back home
in the question back home
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3042
我在國內對這問題有些許經驗，
15:12
of how you try to bring
together two peoples
together two peoples
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要是兩個民族在過去
不曾有過太多的共通處
不曾有過太多的共通處
15:16
who, frankly, haven't had
a whole lot in common in the past.
a whole lot in common in the past.
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3622
如何讓他們站在一起？
15:19
And that's when I apologized
to Australia's indigenous peoples.
to Australia's indigenous peoples.
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907857
3577
那時我向澳洲的原住民致歉，
15:23
This was a day of reckoning
in the Australian government,
in the Australian government,
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3785
這對澳洲政府、國會、澳洲的百姓來說
15:27
the Australian parliament,
and for the Australian people.
and for the Australian people.
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915219
2692
是個翻舊帳的日子，
15:29
After 200 years of unbridled abuse
towards the first Australians,
towards the first Australians,
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917911
4783
經過兩百年對澳洲原住民
無止境的折磨以來，
無止境的折磨以來，
15:34
it was high time that we white folks
said we were sorry.
said we were sorry.
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922694
5178
我們白人早就該說對不起了。
15:39
The important thing --
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927872
1370
很重要的一件事 ，
15:41
(Applause)
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929242
5046
(掌聲)
15:46
The important thing that I remember
is staring in the faces
is staring in the faces
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2922
我記得很重要的一件事是
當那些澳洲土著來聽這個道歉時，
15:49
of all those from Aboriginal Australia
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937210
2481
15:51
as they came to listen to this apology.
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2809
凝視著他們的臉；
15:54
It was extraordinary to see, for example,
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942500
3808
很難置信，比方說
15:58
old women telling me the stories
of when they were five years old
of when they were five years old
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946308
3924
年長女性們告訴我，當她們五歲大時，
16:02
and literally ripped away
from their parents,
from their parents,
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2996
硬生生從父母身邊被帶走了的故事，
16:05
like this lady here.
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953228
1601
像是這邊的這位女士。
16:06
It was extraordinary for me
to then be able to embrace
to then be able to embrace
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954829
4133
對我來說非凡的是，
澳洲土著長者來到國會大樓時
澳洲土著長者來到國會大樓時
16:10
and to kiss Aboriginal elders
as they came into the parliament building,
as they came into the parliament building,
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958962
3948
我能夠擁抱和親吻他們；
16:14
and one woman said to me,
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1256
一位女性跟我說
16:16
it's the first time a white fella
had ever kissed her in her life,
had ever kissed her in her life,
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964166
3155
在她生命裡這是第一次
被白人小哥親過，
被白人小哥親過，
16:19
and she was over 70.
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967321
1951
她當時已經70多歲了，
16:21
That's a terrible story.
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969272
2507
這是令人難過的事。
16:23
And then I remember
this family saying to me,
this family saying to me,
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2462
之後我記得有個家庭向我說道：
16:26
"You know, we drove all the way
from the far North down to Canberra
from the far North down to Canberra
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974241
4063
「我們從遙遠的北方
一路開車下殺到坎培拉，
一路開車下殺到坎培拉，
16:30
to come to this thing,
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978304
1370
為了這件事而來，
16:31
drove our way through redneck country.
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979674
2183
一路穿越鄉巴佬地區，
16:33
On the way back, stopped at a cafe
after the apology for a milkshake."
after the apology for a milkshake."
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981857
6617
接受道歉後回程路上
停在一間咖啡館買杯奶昔。」
停在一間咖啡館買杯奶昔。」
16:40
And they walked into this cafe
quietly, tentatively, gingerly,
quietly, tentatively, gingerly,
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5572
他們安靜地、試探性地、輕手輕腳地
16:46
a little anxious.
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1463
帶點焦慮地走進咖啡館。
16:47
I think you know what I'm talking about.
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995509
2554
我想你應該知道我在講什麼，
16:50
But the day after the apology,
what happened?
what happened?
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998063
3808
但是道歉後的那天發生了什麼事呢？
16:53
Everyone in that cafe,
every one of the white folks,
every one of the white folks,
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1001871
4110
咖啡館的每個人、每個白人，
16:57
stood up and applauded.
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1005981
2786
站了起來還鼓掌，
17:00
Something had happened in the hearts
of these people in Australia.
of these people in Australia.
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1008767
5136
在這些澳洲人的心中已經產生了變化，
17:05
The white folks, our Aboriginal
brothers and sisters,
brothers and sisters,
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1013903
2689
這些白人、澳洲土著同胞心中
發生了變化。
發生了變化。
17:08
and we haven't solved
all these problems together,
all these problems together,
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3228
雖然我們還沒把所有問題處理好，
17:11
but let me tell you,
there was a new beginning
there was a new beginning
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3668
但是讓我來告訴你，那是個新開始，
17:15
because we had gone not just to the head,
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1023488
2416
因為我們不只理智上接受了，
17:17
we'd gone also to the heart.
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1025904
2658
我們心裡也接受了。
17:20
So where does that conclude
in terms of the great question
in terms of the great question
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1028562
2871
所以這如何總結我們今晚
17:23
that we've been asked
to address this evening,
to address this evening,
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1031433
2187
所要處理的大問題？
17:25
which is the future
of U.S.-China relations?
of U.S.-China relations?
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1033620
2964
亦即美中關係的將來會怎樣？
17:28
The head says there's a way forward.
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1036584
2299
理智告訴我們有辦法前進，
17:30
The head says there is a policy framework,
there's a common narrative,
there's a common narrative,
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1038883
3691
理智告訴我們透過例行高峰會議
借助政策系統、共同的故事、機制，
17:34
there's a mechanism
through regular summitry
through regular summitry
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1042574
1927
17:36
to do these things
and to make them better.
and to make them better.
348
1044501
1904
來做這些事情使其更好。
17:38
But the heart must also find a way
to reimagine the possibilities
to reimagine the possibilities
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1046405
5573
不過內心也一定要找出個方法來重新想像
17:43
of the America-China relationship,
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1051978
1904
美中關係的可能性，
17:45
and the possibilities of China's
future engagement in the world.
future engagement in the world.
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1053882
3660
以及未來中國參與世界的可能性。
17:49
Sometimes, folks, we just need
to take a leap of faith
to take a leap of faith
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1057542
6083
有時候我們只是需要跳出深信的道理，
17:55
not quite knowing where we might land.
353
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3924
不必太清楚我們會掉落在那兒。
17:59
In China, they now talk about
the Chinese Dream.
the Chinese Dream.
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1067549
4273
在中國他們現在談著「中國夢」，
18:03
In America, we're all familiar
with the term "the American Dream."
with the term "the American Dream."
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1071822
5526
在美國的話我們都熟識
「美國夢」這個詞兒，
「美國夢」這個詞兒，
18:09
I think it's time, across the world,
356
1077348
3134
我認為對全世界來說是時候
18:12
that we're able to think also
of something we might also call
of something we might also call
357
1080482
5132
我們也能夠來思考我們所謂的
18:17
a dream for all humankind.
358
1085614
5142
「人類夢」，
因為假使我們這麼做了，
18:23
Because if we do that,
359
1091368
1959
18:25
we might just change the way
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1093327
2650
我們可能剛好改變了
18:27
that we think about each other.
361
1095977
4552
我們看待彼此的方式。
人類夢 [中語]，
18:35
[In Chinese]
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1103923
3111
18:39
That's my challenge to America.
That's my challenge to China.
That's my challenge to China.
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1107034
3367
那是我給美國的挑戰，
那是我給中國的挑戰，
那是我給中國的挑戰，
18:42
That's my challenge to all of us,
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1110401
2484
那是我給我們所有人的挑戰。
18:44
but I think where there's a will
and where there is imagination
and where there is imagination
365
1112885
3297
不過我認為只要有意願、有想像力，
18:48
we can turn this into a future
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1116182
2044
我們就可以把實現
18:50
driven by peace and prosperity
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2345
由和平共榮所帶動的未來，
18:52
and not once again repeat
368
1120571
2020
而不會再次重蹈戰爭的悲劇，
18:54
the tragedies of war.
369
1122591
2113
18:56
I thank you.
370
1124704
1858
謝謝大家！
18:58
(Applause)
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1126562
5435
(掌聲)
19:03
Chris Anderson: Thanks so much for that.
Thanks so much for that.
Thanks so much for that.
372
1131997
3179
克里斯‧安德森：「太感謝您了！」
19:07
It feels like you yourself
have a role to play in this bridging.
have a role to play in this bridging.
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1135176
4597
感覺就像你在橋介上
也扮演著一個角色，
也扮演著一個角色，
19:11
You, in a way, are uniquely placed
to speak to both sides.
to speak to both sides.
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1139773
4351
你找了一個獨特的位置
講給雙邊聽。
講給雙邊聽。
19:16
Kevin Rudd: Well, what we Australians
do best is organize the drinks,
do best is organize the drinks,
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1144124
3253
陸克文：我們澳洲人擅長於安排酒會，
19:19
so you get them together in one room,
and we suggest this and suggest that,
and we suggest this and suggest that,
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1147377
3527
所以你把人們聚在房間裡，
我們提這樣那樣的建議，
我們提這樣那樣的建議，
19:22
then we go and get the drinks.
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1150904
1433
接著我們一起去喝酒。
19:24
But no, look, for all of us
who are friends
who are friends
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1152337
2004
不過，我們當中
19:26
of these two great countries,
America and China,
America and China,
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1154341
2262
與美中這兩大國結交的朋友，
19:28
you can do something.
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1156603
1339
你可以來做些什麼事的，
19:29
You can make a practical contribution,
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1157942
2299
你可以產生實質的貢獻，
19:32
and for all you good folks here,
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1160241
1881
所有在場的有心人
19:34
next time you meet someone from China,
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1162122
1625
下次你碰上來自中國的人，
19:35
sit down and have a conversation.
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1163747
1612
坐下來一起聊個天，
19:37
See what you can find out about
where they come from and what they think,
where they come from and what they think,
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1165359
3455
看你可以從他們的出處和思維發現些什麼，
19:40
and my challenge for all
the Chinese folks
the Chinese folks
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2038
我也對看到這個TED 演說的
所有中國人下這個挑戰，
所有中國人下這個挑戰，
19:42
who are going to watch
this TED Talk at some time
this TED Talk at some time
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1170852
2329
19:45
is do the same.
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1173181
2361
也一起來這樣做。
19:47
Two of us seeking to change the world
can actually make a huge difference.
can actually make a huge difference.
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1175542
3901
只要雙方希望改變世界，
就可以真的做出一番成績，
就可以真的做出一番成績，
19:51
Those of us up the middle,
we can make a small contribution.
we can make a small contribution.
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1179443
2902
我們這些處於中間的人物
也可以做出一些小貢獻，
也可以做出一些小貢獻，
19:54
CA: Kevin, all power to you,
my friend. Thank you.
my friend. Thank you.
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2356
克里斯‧安德森：「我的朋友，
再接再勵！感謝你！」
再接再勵！感謝你！」
19:56
KR: Thank you. Thank you, folks.
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2126
陸克文：「謝謝！謝謝大家！」
19:58
(Applause)
393
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2043
(鼓掌)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kevin Rudd - International relations expertWhile studying future alternatives for China’s global relations, former Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has come to an ominous conclusion: conflict is looming.
Why you should listen
Drawing on a deep knowledge of Chinese culture, language and history (and as a Senior Fellow with Harvard’s Belfer Center), Kevin Rudd and his colleagues study alternate courses for US-China relations that guide us away from a seemingly inevitable confrontation. As Prime Minister during the global financial crisis (and as one of the founders of the G20), Rudd helped keep Australia out of recession with a stimulus strategy lauded by the IMF as exemplary among its member states. Rudd is also President of the Asia Society Policy Institute, a think tank specializing in Asian affairs.
In March 2015, Rudd published "China under Xi Jinping: Alternative Futures for U.S.-China Relations," a series of three addresses on American and Chinese values, perceptions, interests, and strategic intentions, and their impact on the possibility of developing a common narrative for U.S.-China relations for the future.
Kevin Rudd | Speaker | TED.com