TED2011
David Christian: The history of our world in 18 minutes
Dejvid Kristijan: Velika istorija
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Uz zapanjujuće ilustracije, Dejvid Kristijan govori o kompletnoj istoriji univerzuma, od Velikog praska do interneta, u svega 18 minuta. Ovo je "Velika Istorija": prosvetljujuća, širokog pogleda na kompleksnost, život i ljudsku vrstu, postavljena nasuprot našem kratkom trajanju u kosmičkom vremenu.
David Christian - Historian
David Christian teaches an ambitious world history course that tells the tale of the entire universe -- from the Big Bang 13 billion years ago to present day. Full bio
David Christian teaches an ambitious world history course that tells the tale of the entire universe -- from the Big Bang 13 billion years ago to present day. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
First, a video.
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Prvo, video.
00:24
(Video) Yes, it is a scrambled egg.
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Da, ovo je umućeno jaje.
00:28
But as you look at it,
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Ali kako ga gledate,
00:30
I hope you'll begin to feel
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nadam se da ćete početi da osećate
00:32
just slightly uneasy.
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sasvim malu nelagodu.
00:36
Because you may notice that what's actually happening
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Jer možda ćete primetiti šta se zaista dešava,
00:39
is that the egg is unscrambling itself.
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a to je da se jaje samo razumućuje.
00:42
And you'll now see the yolk and the white have separated.
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I sada ćete videti žumance i belance kako se razdvajaju.
00:44
And now they're going to be poured back into the egg.
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I kako se vraćaju natrag u jaje.
00:47
And we all know in our heart of hearts
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Svi znamo, intuitivno,
00:50
that this is not the way the universe works.
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da ovo nije način na koji univerzum funkcioniše.
00:54
A scrambled egg is mush -- tasty mush -- but it's mush.
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Umućeno jaje je smeša, ukusna smeša, ali ipak smeša.
00:57
An egg is a beautiful, sophisticated thing
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Jaje je prelepa, prefinjena stvar
01:00
that can create even more sophisticated things,
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koja može da stvara još prefinjenije stvari,
01:02
such as chickens.
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kao što su kokoške.
01:04
And we know in our heart of hearts
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I duboko u sebi znamo
01:06
that the universe does not travel
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da univerzum ne putuje
01:08
from mush to complexity.
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od smeše u komplekosnost.
01:10
In fact, this gut instinct
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Zapravo, ovaj instinkt
01:12
is reflected in one of the most fundamental laws of physics,
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odražava jedan od najosnovnijih zakona fizike,
01:15
the second law of thermodynamics, or the law of entropy.
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drugi zakon termodinamike, ili zakon entropije.
01:18
What that says basically
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Ono što nam taj zakon govori u osnovi je
01:20
is that the general tendency of the universe
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da je opšta tendencija univerzuma
01:23
is to move from order
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da se kreće od uređenosti
01:25
and structure
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i strukture
01:27
to lack of order, lack of structure --
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do manjka uređenosti, manjka strukture --
01:29
in fact, to mush.
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do smeše, zapravo.
01:31
And that's why that video
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I zbog toga ovaj video
01:33
feels a bit strange.
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deluje malo čudno.
01:35
And yet,
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Pa ipak,
01:37
look around us.
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pogledajte unaokolo.
01:39
What we see around us
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Ono što vidimo oko nas
01:41
is staggering complexity.
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jeste zapanjujuća kompleksnost.
01:43
Eric Beinhocker estimates that in New York City alone,
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Erik Bajnhoker procenjuje da samo na tržištu Nju Jorka
01:46
there are some 10 billion SKUs, or distinct commodities, being traded.
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postoji preko 10 milijardi različite robe kojom se trguje,
01:50
That's hundreds of times as many species
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što je hiljadu puta više od vrsta
01:53
as there are on Earth.
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koje postoje na Zemlji.
01:55
And they're being traded by a species
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I njima trguje vrsta
01:57
of almost seven billion individuals,
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od oko sedam milijardi pojedinaca
01:59
who are linked by trade, travel, and the Internet
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koji su povezani kroz trgovinu, putovanja i Internet
02:02
into a global system
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u celovit sistem
02:04
of stupendous complexity.
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čudesne kompleksnosti.
02:07
So here's a great puzzle:
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I eto sjajne zagonetke:
02:09
in a universe
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U univerzumu
02:11
ruled by the second law of thermodynamics,
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u kome važi drugi zakon termodinamike,
02:14
how is it possible
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kako je moguće
02:16
to generate the sort of complexity I've described,
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proizvesti takvu složenost kakvu sam opisao --
02:19
the sort of complexity represented by you and me
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vrstu složenosti koju predstavljamo vi i ja
02:22
and the convention center?
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i kongresni centar?
02:25
Well, the answer seems to be,
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Pa, odgovor je izgleda
02:28
the universe can create complexity,
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da univerzum može stvoriti kompleksnost,
02:31
but with great difficulty.
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ali sa velikim poteškoćama.
02:33
In pockets,
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U suštini,
02:35
there appear what my colleague, Fred Spier,
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dešava se ono što moj kolega, Fred Spir,
02:37
calls "Goldilocks conditions" --
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zove "Goldilokovi uslovi" --
02:39
not too hot, not too cold,
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ni prevruće, ni prehladno;
02:41
just right for the creation of complexity.
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sasvim dovoljno za stvaranje kompleksnosti.
02:44
And slightly more complex things appear.
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I nešto kompleksnija stvar se dešava.
02:46
And where you have slightly more complex things,
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A gde imate kompleksne stvari,
02:48
you can get slightly more complex things.
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možete dobiti još složenije stvari.
02:50
And in this way, complexity builds
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I na ovaj način, kompleksnost se gradi
02:53
stage by stage.
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stepenicu po stepenicu.
02:55
Each stage is magical
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Svaka faza je magična
02:58
because it creates the impression of something utterly new
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jer stvara utisak da se nešto suštinski novo
03:01
appearing almost out of nowhere in the universe.
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pojavljuje niotkuda u univerzumu.
03:04
We refer in big history to these moments
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Mi se u velikoj istoriji odnosimo na ove momente
03:06
as threshold moments.
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kao na "nivoe".
03:08
And at each threshold,
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I na svakom nivou
03:10
the going gets tougher.
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stvari postaju teže.
03:12
The complex things get more fragile,
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Kompleksne stvari postaju krhkije,
03:15
more vulnerable;
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ranjivije,
03:17
the Goldilocks conditions get more stringent,
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Goldilokovi uslovi postaju zahtevniji,
03:20
and it's more difficult
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i postaje teže
03:22
to create complexity.
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stvoriti kompleksnost.
03:24
Now, we, as extremely complex creatures,
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E sada, mi kao ekstremno složena bića
03:27
desperately need to know this story
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očajnički želimo da razumemo priču o tome
03:30
of how the universe creates complexity
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kako univerzum stvara kompleksnost,
03:32
despite the second law,
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uprkos drugom zakonu,
03:34
and why complexity
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i zašto kompleksnost
03:36
means vulnerability
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znači ranjivost
03:38
and fragility.
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i krhkost.
03:40
And that's the story that we tell in big history.
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I to je priča koju pričamo u velikoj istoriji.
03:43
But to do it, you have do something
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Ali kako bi to uradili, prvo mora da se uradi nešto
03:45
that may, at first sight, seem completely impossible.
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što na prvi pogled može delovati potpuno nemoguće.
03:47
You have to survey the whole history of the universe.
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Mora da se premeri čitava istorija univerzuma.
03:52
So let's do it.
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Pa hajde da to učinimo.
03:54
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
03:56
Let's begin by winding the timeline back
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Počnimo tako što ćemo vratiti sat
03:59
13.7 billion years,
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13.7 milijardi godina unazad
04:02
to the beginning of time.
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do početka vremena.
04:12
Around us, there's nothing.
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Oko nas nema ničega.
04:14
There's not even time or space.
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Nema ni prostora ni vremena.
04:18
Imagine the darkest, emptiest thing you can
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Zamislite najmračniju, najprazniju stvar koju možete
04:21
and cube it a gazillion times
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i sažmite je milijardu milijardi puta
04:23
and that's where we are.
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i eto tu se nalazimo.
04:25
And then suddenly,
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A onda iznenada,
04:28
bang! A universe appears, an entire universe.
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tras! Pojavljuje se univerzum, čitav univerzum.
04:31
And we've crossed our first threshold.
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I prošli smo kroz prvi nivo.
04:33
The universe is tiny; it's smaller than an atom.
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Univerzum je mali; manji od atoma.
04:35
It's incredibly hot.
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I neverovatno je vruć.
04:37
It contains everything that's in today's universe,
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Sadrži sve što je danas u univerzumu,
04:39
so you can imagine, it's busting.
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tako da možete zamisliti, da se razbija,
04:41
And it's expanding at incredible speed.
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i da se širi neverovatnom brzinom.
04:44
And at first, it's just a blur,
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I najpre je sve vrlo mutno,
04:46
but very quickly distinct things begin to appear in that blur.
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ali veoma brzo počinju da se izdvajaju stvari u toj maglini.
04:49
Within the first second,
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U prvoj sekundi,
04:51
energy itself shatters into distinct forces
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sama energija se razbija u različite sile,
04:54
including electromagnetism and gravity.
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uključujući elektromagnetizam i gravitaciju.
04:56
And energy does something else quite magical:
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Energija čini još nešto prilično čudesno
04:59
it congeals to form matter --
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uobličava se u materiju --
05:02
quarks that will create protons
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kvarkove koji formiraju protone
05:04
and leptons that include electrons.
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i leptone koji uključuju elektrone.
05:07
And all of that happens in the first second.
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I sve se to dešava u prvoj sekundi.
05:09
Now we move forward 380,000 years.
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Sada idemo 380.000 godina unapred.
05:14
That's twice as long as humans have been on this planet.
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To je duplo duže nego što ljudi postoje na planeti.
05:17
And now simple atoms appear
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I tada se pojavljuje jednostavan atom
05:20
of hydrogen and helium.
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vodonika i helijuma.
05:23
Now I want to pause for a moment,
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Sada bih zastao na momenat,
05:25
380,000 years after the origins of the universe,
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380,000 godina nakon nastanka univerzuma,
05:28
because we actually know quite a lot
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jer znamo prilično mnogo
05:30
about the universe at this stage.
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o ovoj fazi razvitka univerzuma.
05:32
We know above all that it was extremely simple.
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Pre svega znamo da je bio jako jednostavan.
05:35
It consisted of huge clouds
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Sastojao se od ogromnih oblaka
05:37
of hydrogen and helium atoms,
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sačinjenih od atoma vodonika i helijuma,
05:39
and they have no structure.
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a oni nisu imali strukturu.
05:41
They're really a sort of cosmic mush.
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Bili su vrsta kosmičke smeše.
05:44
But that's not completely true.
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Ali to nije baš potpuno tačno.
05:46
Recent studies
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Skorije studije
05:48
by satellites such as the WMAP satellite
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urađene pomoću satelita kao što je WMAP satelit
05:51
have shown that, in fact, there are just tiny differences in that background.
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pokazale su da, zapravo, postoje samo male razlike u pozadini.
05:55
What you see here,
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Ono što vidite ovde,
05:57
the blue areas are about a thousandth of a degree cooler
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je da su plave zone oko hiljadu stepeni hladnije
06:00
than the red areas.
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od crvenih zona.
06:02
These are tiny differences,
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To su male razlike,
06:04
but it was enough for the universe to move on
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ali dovoljne da univerzum nastavi
06:06
to the next stage of building complexity.
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do sledeće faze kompleksnosti.
06:08
And this is how it works.
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I evo kako to funkcioniše.
06:10
Gravity is more powerful
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Gravitacija je moćnija
06:13
where there's more stuff.
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tamo gde ima više stvari.
06:15
So where you get slightly denser areas,
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Tako da gde imate gušće zone,
06:17
gravity starts compacting clouds
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gravitacija počinje da sažima oblake
06:19
of hydrogen and helium atoms.
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vodonikovih i helijumovih atoma.
06:21
So we can imagine the early universe breaking up
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Možemo zamisliti rani univerzum kako se raspada
06:23
into a billion clouds.
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na milijarde oblaka.
06:25
And each cloud is compacted,
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I svaki oblak je sabijen,
06:27
gravity gets more powerful as density increases,
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gravitacija postaje moćnija kako se gustina povećava,
06:30
the temperature begins to rise at the center of each cloud,
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temperatura počinje da raste u centru svakog oblaka,
06:32
and then, at the center of each cloud,
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a potom u svakom oblaku,
06:34
the temperature crosses the threshold temperature
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temperatura prelazi graničnu temperaturu novog nivoa
06:37
of 10 million degrees,
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od 10 miliona stepeni,
06:39
protons start to fuse,
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protoni počinju da se spajaju,
06:41
there's a huge release of energy,
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ogromna količina energije se oslobađa,
06:44
and, bam!
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i, tras!
06:46
We have our first stars.
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Imamo prvu zvezdu.
06:48
From about 200 million years after the Big Bang,
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Otprilike 200 miliona godina nakon Velikog praska,
06:52
stars begin to appear all through the universe,
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zvezde počinju da se pojavljuju širom čitavog univerzuma,
06:55
billions of them.
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na milijarde njih.
06:57
And the universe is now significantly more interesting
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I univerzum je sada znatno zanimljiviji
07:00
and more complex.
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i mnogo kompleksniji.
07:03
Stars will create the Goldilocks conditions
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Zvezde će formirati Goldilakove uslove
07:05
for crossing two new thresholds.
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za prolazak kroz još dva nova nivoa
07:08
When very large stars die,
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Kada veoma velike zvezde umru,
07:10
they create temperatures so high
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one stvaraju temperature toliko visoke
07:13
that protons begin to fuse in all sorts of exotic combinations,
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da protoni počinju da se spajaju u sve vrste egzotičnih kombinacija,
07:16
to form all the elements of the periodic table.
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i formiraju sve elemente periodnog sistema.
07:19
If, like me, you're wearing a gold ring,
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Ako, kao ja, nosite zlatan prsten,
07:22
it was forged in a supernova explosion.
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on je nastao u eksploziji supernove.
07:25
So now the universe is chemically more complex.
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Sada je univerzum hemijski mnogo kompleksniji.
07:28
And in a chemically more complex universe,
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A u hemijski kompleksnijem univerzumu,
07:31
it's possible to make more things.
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moguće je mnogo više stvari.
07:33
And what starts happening
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I ono što počinje da se dešava
07:35
is that, around young suns,
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oko mladih sunaca,
07:37
young stars,
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mladih zvezda,
07:39
all these elements combine, they swirl around,
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je to da se ovi elementi kombinuju, kovitlaju se,
07:41
the energy of the star stirs them around,
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energija oko zvezda ih vrti,
07:43
they form particles, they form snowflakes,
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formiraju čestice, formiraju pahuljice,
07:46
they form little dust motes,
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male čestice prašine,
07:48
they form rocks, they form asteroids,
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koje formiraju stene, asteroide,
07:50
and eventually, they form planets and moons.
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i konačno formiraju planete i mesece.
07:53
And that is how our solar system was formed,
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Eto kako je nastao naš sunčev sistem,
07:56
four and a half billion years ago.
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pre četiri i po milijarde godina.
07:59
Rocky planets like our Earth
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Stenovite planete kao što je naša Zemlja
08:02
are significantly more complex than stars
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značajno su kompleksnije od zvezda
08:05
because they contain a much greater diversity of materials.
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jer sadrže veću raznolikost materijala.
08:08
So we've crossed a fourth threshold of complexity.
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I tako smo zakoračili kroz četvrti nivo kompleksnosti.
08:12
Now, the going gets tougher.
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Sada stvari postaju teže.
08:16
The next stage introduces entities
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Sledeća faza nas upoznaje sa stvarima
08:18
that are significantly more fragile,
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koje su značajno krhkije,
08:20
significantly more vulnerable,
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značajno ranjivije,
08:22
but they're also much more creative
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ali su i mnogo kreativnije
08:25
and much more capable of generating further complexity.
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i sposobnije da stvaraju kompleksnost u budućnosti.
08:28
I'm talking, of course,
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Govorim, naravno,
08:30
about living organisms.
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o živim organizmima.
08:32
Living organisms are created by chemistry.
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Žive organizme je stvorila hemija.
08:34
We are huge packages of chemicals.
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Mi smo veliki hemijski paketi.
08:38
So, chemistry is dominated by the electromagnetic force.
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A hemijom upravlja elektromagnetna sila.
08:41
That operates over smaller scales than gravity,
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Ona radi na nižim nivoima od gravitacije,
08:43
which explains why you and I
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što objašnjava činjenicu zašto smo vi i ja
08:45
are smaller than stars or planets.
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manji od zvezda i planeta.
08:47
Now, what are the ideal conditions for chemistry?
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E sad, koji su idealni uslovi za hemijske procese?
08:50
What are the Goldilocks conditions?
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Koji su Goldilokovi uslovi?
08:52
Well, first, you need energy,
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Prvo, potrebna je energija,
08:54
but not too much.
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ali ne previše.
08:56
In the center of a star, there's so much energy
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U središtu zvezde, postoji previše energije,
08:58
that any atoms that combine will just get busted apart again.
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tako da, ako se bilo koji atomi spoje, jednostavno će sagoreti i ponovo se razdvojiti.
09:01
But not too little.
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Ali ne ni premalo.
09:03
In intergalactic space, there's so little energy
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U intergalaktičkom prostoru, toliko je malo energije
09:05
that atoms can't combine.
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da se atomi ne mogu spajati.
09:08
What you want is just the right amount,
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Ono što je potrebno je prava količina,
09:10
and planets, it turns out, are just right,
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a planete, ispostavilo se, su upravo idealne,
09:12
because they're close to stars, but not too close.
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jer su blizu, ali ne ni preblizu zvezda.
09:15
You also need a great diversity of chemical elements,
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Takođe je potrebna i raznolikost hemijskih elemenata,
09:18
and you need liquid such as water.
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i potrebna je tečnost kao što je voda.
09:21
Why?
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Zašto?
09:23
Well, in gasses, atoms move past each other so fast
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Pa u gasovima, atomi prolaze jedni pored drugih toliko brzo
09:26
that they can't hitch up.
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da se ne mogu spojiti.
09:28
In solids,
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U čvrstim stanjima,
09:30
atoms are stuck together, they can't move.
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atomi ne mogu da se pomeraju, zaglavljeni su.
09:33
In liquids,
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U tečnostima,
09:35
they can cruise and cuddle
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oni mogu da plutaju
09:37
and link up to form molecules.
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i da se povezuju u molekule.
09:40
Now, where do you find such Goldilocks conditions?
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E sad, gde se pronalaze ovakvi Goldilokovi uslovi_
09:43
Well, planets are great,
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Planete su sjajne,
09:45
and our early Earth
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i naša rana Zemlja
09:47
was almost perfect.
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je bila skoro savršena.
09:49
It was just the right distance from its star
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Bila je na idealnoj udaljenosti od njene zvezde
09:51
to contain huge oceans of open water.
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da bi razvila velike okeane otvorenih voda.
09:54
And deep beneath those oceans,
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I duboko ispod tih okeana
09:56
at cracks in the Earth's crust,
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u pukotinama kore,
09:58
you've got heat seeping up from inside the Earth,
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imali ste toplotu koja je prodirala iz središta Zemlje,
10:01
and you've got a great diversity of elements.
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i imali ste veliku raznolikost elemenata.
10:03
So at those deep oceanic vents,
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Tako su se na tim dubokim okeanskim ventilima,
10:05
fantastic chemistry began to happen,
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počeli dešavati fantastični hemijski procesi,
10:08
and atoms combined in all sorts of exotic combinations.
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i atomi su se kombinovali u sve vrste egzotičnih kombinacija.
10:12
But of course, life is more
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Ali, naravno, život je više
10:14
than just exotic chemistry.
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od egzotičnih hemijskih procesa.
10:16
How do you stabilize
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Kako se stabilizuju
10:18
those huge molecules
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ti ogromni molekuli
10:20
that seem to be viable?
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koji deluju kao sposobni za život?
10:23
Well, it's here that life introduces
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Tu nam život predstavlja
10:25
an entirely new trick.
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jedan potpuno novi trik.
10:28
You don't stabilize the individual;
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Ne stabilizuje se pojedinac;
10:30
you stabilize the template,
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stabilizuje se šablon,
10:32
the thing that carries information,
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deo koji nosi podatke,
10:34
and you allow the template to copy itself.
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a šablon ima mogućnost ponavljanja.
10:36
And DNA, of course,
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A DNK je, naravno,
10:38
is the beautiful molecule
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prelep molekul
10:40
that contains that information.
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koji sadrži te podatke.
10:42
You'll be familiar with the double helix of DNA.
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Bićete upoznati sa dvostrukim lancem DNK.
10:45
Each rung contains information.
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Svaka prečka sadrži informacije.
10:47
So, DNA contains information
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Tako, DNK sadrži podatke o tome
10:49
about how to make living organisms.
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kako se stvaraju živi organizmi.
10:52
And DNA also copies itself.
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I takođe kopira samu sebe.
10:54
So, it copies itself
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Stvara sopstvene kopije
10:56
and scatters the templates through the ocean.
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i širi šablone okeanom.
10:58
So the information spreads.
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Tako se informacije šire.
11:00
Notice that information has become part of our story.
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Primetili ste da je informacija postala deo naše priče.
11:03
The real beauty of DNA though
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Pa ipak, prava lepota DNK molekula
11:05
is in its imperfections.
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leži u njegovoj nesavršenosti.
11:07
As it copies itself,
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Kako stvara svoje kopije,
11:09
once in every billion rungs,
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jednom na svakih milijardu prečki,
11:11
there tends to be an error.
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dođe do greške.
11:13
And what that means
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I to znači
11:15
is that DNA is, in effect, learning.
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da DNK, zapravo, uči.
11:18
It's accumulating new ways of making living organisms
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Prikuplja nove načine stvaranja živih organizama
11:20
because some of those errors work.
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jer neke od tih grešaka funkcionišu.
11:22
So DNA's learning
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Znači DNK uči
11:24
and it's building greater diversity and greater complexity.
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i stvara veću raznolikost i veću kompleksnost.
11:27
And we can see this happening over the last four billion years.
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I vidimo da se ovo dešava proteklih četiri milijarde godina.
11:30
For most of that time of life on Earth,
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Većinu tog vremena život na Zemlji
11:32
living organisms have been relatively simple --
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su činili relativno jednostavni organizmi --
11:34
single cells.
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jednoćelijski organizmi.
11:36
But they had great diversity,
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Ali oni su bili jako raznovrsni,
11:38
and, inside, great complexity.
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i jako složene unutrašnjosti.
11:40
Then from about 600 to 800 million years ago,
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Potom, pre oko 600 do 800 miliona godina,
11:43
multi-celled organisms appear.
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pojavili su se višećelijski organizmi.
11:45
You get fungi, you get fish,
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Gljive, ribe,
11:47
you get plants,
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došle su biljke,
11:49
you get amphibia, you get reptiles,
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potom vodozemci, zatim gmizavci,
11:52
and then, of course, you get the dinosaurs.
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i naravno, dinosaurusi.
11:55
And occasionally, there are disasters.
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I povremeno, dešavale su se katastrofe.
11:59
Sixty-five million years ago,
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Pre 65 miliona godina,
12:01
an asteroid landed on Earth
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asteroid je udario u Zemlju
12:03
near the Yucatan Peninsula,
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blizu poluostrva Jukatan,
12:05
creating conditions equivalent to those of a nuclear war,
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stvarajući uslove identične onima u nuklearnom ratu,
12:08
and the dinosaurs were wiped out.
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i dinosaurusi su bili zbrisani.
12:10
Terrible news for the dinosaurs,
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Užasne vesti za dinosauruse.
12:14
but great news for our mammalian ancestors,
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Ali sjajne za naše pretke sisare
12:17
who flourished
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koji su procvetali
12:19
in the niches left empty by the dinosaurs.
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u staništima koja su ostala pusta.
12:22
And we human beings
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A ljudska bića
12:24
are part of that creative evolutionary pulse
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su deo kreativnog evolutivnog procesa
12:27
that began 65 million years ago
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koji je započeo pre 65 miliona godina
12:30
with the landing of an asteroid.
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sa udarom asteroida.
12:33
Humans appeared about 200,000 years ago.
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Ljudi su se pojavili pre oko 200,000 godina.
12:36
And I believe we count
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I verujem da se računamo
12:38
as a threshold in this great story.
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kao sledeći nivo u ovoj priči.
12:40
Let me explain why.
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Dozvolite da objasnim zašto.
12:42
We've seen that DNA learns in a sense,
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Videli smo da DNK uči
12:45
it accumulates information.
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sakupljajući podatke.
12:47
But it is so slow.
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Ali proces je jako spor.
12:49
DNA accumulates information
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DNK skladišti podatke
12:51
through random errors,
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putem nasumičnih grešaka
12:53
some of which just happen to work.
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od kojih se samo za neke ispostavi da funkcionišu.
12:56
But DNA had actually generated a faster way of learning:
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Ali DNK je razvio brži način učenja;
12:58
it had produced organisms with brains,
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stvorio je organizme sa mozgovima,
13:01
and those organisms can learn in real time.
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i ti organizmi mogu učiti u stvarnom vremenu.
13:04
They accumulate information, they learn.
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Oni prikupljaju informacije, oni uče.
13:07
The sad thing is,
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Tužna stvar je to što
13:09
when they die, the information dies with them.
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kad umru, informacije umiru sa njima.
13:12
Now what makes humans different
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Ono što ljude čini drugačijima
13:14
is human language.
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je ljudski jezik.
13:16
We are blessed with a language, a system of communication,
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Blagosloveni smo jezikom, sistemom komunikacije,
13:18
so powerful and so precise
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toliko moćnim i toliko preciznim
13:21
that we can share what we've learned with such precision
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da možemo da delimo ono što smo naučili sa tolikom tačnošću
13:24
that it can accumulate in the collective memory.
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da se to može sakupljati u kolektivno pamćenje.
13:27
And that means
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A to znači
13:29
it can outlast the individuals who learned that information,
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da može da nadživi pojedince koji su naučili taj podatak
13:32
and it can accumulate from generation to generation.
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i može se sakupljati iz generacije u generaciju.
13:36
And that's why, as a species, we're so creative
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I to je razlog zbog kog smo, kao vrsta, toliko kreativni
13:38
and so powerful,
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i toliko moćni
13:40
and that's why we have a history.
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i zbog toga imamo istoriju.
13:42
We seem to be the only species in four billion years
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Izgleda da smo jedina vrsta tokom ove četiri milijarde godina
13:45
to have this gift.
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koja ima ovaj dar.
13:47
I call this ability
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Ja zovem ovu sposobnost
13:49
collective learning.
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kolektivnim učenjem.
13:51
It's what makes us different.
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To je ono što nas čini drugačijim.
13:53
We can see it at work
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Možemo videti to na poslu
13:55
in the earliest stages of human history.
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u najranijim periodima ljudske istorije.
13:57
We evolved as a species
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Evoluirali smo kao vrsta
13:59
in the savanna lands of Africa,
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u savanama Afrike,
14:01
but then you see humans migrating into new environments,
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ali smo onda kao vrsta migrirali u nova okuženja --
14:04
into desert lands, into jungles,
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u pustinje, džungle,
14:06
into the ice age tundra of Siberia --
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u ledene tundre Sibira --
14:08
tough, tough environment --
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teška, teška okruženja --
14:10
into the Americas, into Australasia.
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u Ameriku, Australaziju.
14:12
Each migration involved learning --
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Svaka migracija razvijala je učenje --
14:14
learning new ways of exploiting the environment,
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učenje novih načina korišćenja sredine,
14:17
new ways of dealing with their surroundings.
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novih načina odnosa sa sredinom.
14:19
Then 10,000 years ago,
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Potom, pre 10,000 godina,
14:21
exploiting a sudden change in global climate
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koristeći nagle globalne klimatske promene
14:23
with the end of the last ice age,
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sa krajem poslednjeg ledenog doba,
14:25
humans learned to farm.
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ljudi su naučili da se bave agrikulturom.
14:28
Farming was an energy bonanza.
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Agrikultura je bila energetsko bogatstvo.
14:30
And exploiting that energy,
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Koristeći tu energiju,
14:32
human populations multiplied.
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ljudska populacija se uvećavala.
14:34
Human societies got larger, denser,
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Ljudska društva su postajala veća, gušće naseljena,
14:36
more interconnected.
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više povezana.
14:38
And then from about 500 years ago,
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I otprilike pre 500 godina,
14:42
humans began to link up globally
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ljudi su počeli da se globalno povezuju
14:44
through shipping, through trains,
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preko brodova, vozova,
14:46
through telegraph, through the Internet,
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preko telegrafa, interneta,
14:49
until now we seem to form
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do sada kada možemo videti kako se stvara
14:51
a single global brain
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jedinstven globalni mozak
14:53
of almost seven billion individuals.
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od skoro sedam milijardi pojedinaca.
14:55
And that brain is learning at warp speed.
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I taj mozak uči ogromnom brzinom.
15:00
And in the last 200 years, something else has happened.
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I u poslednjih 200 godina, još nešto se desilo:
15:02
We've stumbled on another energy bonanza
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naišli smo na još jedno energetsko bogatstvo
15:04
in fossil fuels.
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fosilna goriva.
15:06
So fossil fuels and collective learning together
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Fosilna goriva i kolektivno učenje zajedno
15:09
explain the staggering complexity
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objašnjavaju zapanjujuću kompleksnost
15:11
we see around us.
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koja nas okružuje.
15:16
So, here we are,
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I tako, eto nas ovde
15:19
back at the convention center.
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natrag u kongresni centar.
15:21
We've been on a journey, a return journey,
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Bili smo na putovanju, putovanju u prošlost,
15:23
of 13.7 billion years.
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unazad 13.7 milijardi godina.
15:26
I hope you agree that this is a powerful story.
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Nadam se da ćete se složiti da je ovo jedna moćna priča.
15:29
And it's a story in which humans
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I to je priča u kojoj ljudi
15:31
play an astonishing and creative role.
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igraju zapanjujuću i kreativnu ulogu.
15:34
But it also contains warnings.
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Ali ona sadrži i upozorenja.
15:37
Collective learning is a very, very powerful force,
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Kolektivno učenje je vrlo, vrlo moćna sila,
15:41
and it's not clear
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I nije jasno
15:43
that we humans are in charge of it.
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da je mi, ljudi, u potpunosti kontrolišemo.
15:46
I remember very vividly as a child growing up in England,
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Sećam se vrlo živo da sam kao dete odrastao u Engleskoj,
15:49
living through the Cuban Missile Crisis.
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za vreme Kubanske raketne krize.
15:52
For a few days,
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U roku od nekoliko dana,
15:54
the entire biosphere
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čitava biosfera
15:56
seemed to be on the verge of destruction.
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delovala je kao da je na ivici uništenja.
15:59
And the same weapons are still here,
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A isto oružje i dalje je tu,
16:02
and they are still armed.
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oni su i dalje naoružani.
16:04
If we avoid that trap,
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I ako uspemo da zaobiđemo tu zamku,
16:06
others are waiting for us.
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druge i dalje čekaju na nas.
16:08
We're burning fossil fuels at such a rate
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Sagorevamo fosilna goriva u tolikoj količini
16:11
that we seem to be undermining the Goldilocks conditions
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da izgleda da podrivamo Goldilokove uslove
16:14
that made it possible for human civilizations
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koji omogućavaju ljudskoj civilizaciji
16:16
to flourish over the last 10,000 years.
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da cveta preko 10,000 godina.
16:20
So what big history can do
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Ono šta velika istorija može da uradi
16:22
is show us the nature of our complexity and fragility
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je da nam pokaže prirodu naše kompleksnosti i ranjivosti
16:25
and the dangers that face us,
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i opasnosti sa kojima se suočavamo,
16:27
but it can also show us
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ali takođe nam može pokazati
16:30
our power with collective learning.
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moć koju ima kolektivno učenje.
16:32
And now, finally,
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I sada, najzad,
16:35
this is what I want.
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ono što ja želim.
16:39
I want my grandson, Daniel,
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Ja želim da moj unuk Danijel
16:42
and his friends and his generation,
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i njegovi prijatelji i njegova generacija,
16:44
throughout the world,
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u čitavom svetu,
16:46
to know the story of big history,
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znaju priču velike istorije,
16:49
and to know it so well
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i da je znaju toliko dobro
16:51
that they understand
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da razumeju
16:53
both the challenges that face us
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i izazove sa kojima se suočavamo,
16:55
and the opportunities that face us.
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ali i mogućnosti koje su pred nama.
16:58
And that's why a group of us
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I zato grupa nas
17:00
are building a free, online syllabus
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gradi besplatan nastavni program na mreži
17:02
in big history
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o velikoj istoriji
17:04
for high school students throughout the world.
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za srednjoškolce u čitavom svetu.
17:06
We believe that big history
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Verujemo da će velika istorija
17:09
will be a vital intellectual tool for them,
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biti osnovno intelektualno sredstvo za njih,
17:12
as Daniel and his generation
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kako se Danijel i njegova generacija
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face the huge challenges
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budu suočavali sa velikim izazovima,
17:17
and also the huge opportunities
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a takođe i sa velikim mogućnostima
17:19
ahead of them at this threshold moment
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koje su pred njima u ovom novom trenutku
17:22
in the history of our beautiful planet.
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u istoriji ove prelepe planete.
17:26
I thank you for your attention.
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Zahvaljujem vam se na pažnji.
17:28
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Christian - HistorianDavid Christian teaches an ambitious world history course that tells the tale of the entire universe -- from the Big Bang 13 billion years ago to present day.
Why you should listen
David Christian is by training a historian of Russia and the Soviet Union, but since the 1980s he has become interested in world history on very large scales. He has written on the social and material history of the 19th-century Russian peasantry, in particular on aspects of diet and the role of alcohol. In 1989, he began teaching courses on "Big History," surveying the past on the largest possible scales, including those of biology and astronomy.
Christian is a member of the Australian Academy of the Humanities. Over the next few years he will also be working with the support of Bill Gates to create an online course in "Big History" for high school students.
Watch the Big History series on H2 >>
David Christian | Speaker | TED.com