TEDxAthens
Rory Sutherland: Perspective is everything
Rori Saderland (Rory Sutherland): Perspektiva je sve
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Okolnosti u našim životima možda su manje značajne od načina na koji ih shvatamo, kaže Rori Saderland. Na TEDxAthens, on prezentuje izazovnu priču o tome kako je promena referentnog okvira ključ za sreću.
Rory Sutherland - Advertising guru
Rory Sutherland stands at the center of an advertising revolution in brand identities, designing cutting-edge, interactive campaigns that blur the line between ad and entertainment. Full bio
Rory Sutherland stands at the center of an advertising revolution in brand identities, designing cutting-edge, interactive campaigns that blur the line between ad and entertainment. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
What you have here
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Ovo ovde
00:18
is an electronic cigarette.
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je elektronska cigareta.
00:21
It's something that's, since it was invented a year or two ago,
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To je meni, od pre godinu, dve kad je izmišljeno,
00:25
has given me untold happiness.
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pružilo neverovatno zadovoljstvo.
00:27
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
00:28
A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine,
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Mali deo tog zadovoljstva je nikotin,
00:30
but there's something much bigger than that.
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ali tu ima nešto mnogo važnije od nikotina.
00:32
Which is ever since, in the U.K., they banned smoking in public places,
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Od momenta kad su u Velikoj Britaniji zabranili pušenje na javnim mestima
00:37
I've never enjoyed a drinks party ever again.
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nisam više uživao u zabavama sa pićem.
00:41
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
00:42
And the reason, I only worked out just the other day,
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Zaključio sam zašto pre neki dan,
00:46
which is when you go to a drinks party
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a to je da kad odeš na zabavu gde se pije,
00:48
and you stand up and you hold a glass of red wine
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stojiš i držiš čašu crvenog vina,
00:50
and you talk endlessly to people,
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vodiš beskrajne razgovore,
00:51
you don't actually want to spend all the time talking.
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koje zapravo ne želiš da vodiš.
00:54
It's really, really tiring.
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To je zaista zamorno.
00:56
Sometimes you just want to stand there silently, alone with your thoughts.
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Ponekad želiš da samo mirno stojiš sam sa svojim mislima.
01:00
Sometimes you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window.
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Ponekad želiš samo da stojiš u ćošku i gledaš kroz prozor.
01:04
Now the problem is, when you can't smoke,
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Problem je, što kad ne možeš da pušiš,
01:07
if you stand and stare out of the window on your own,
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ako stojiš sam i gledaš kroz prozor,
01:11
you're an antisocial, friendless idiot.
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onda ispadaš nedruštven, usamljeni idiot.
01:14
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
01:15
If you stand and stare out of the window on your own with a cigarette,
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Ako stojiš sam i gledaš kroz prozor sa cigaretom,
01:19
you're a fucking philosopher.
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ti si jebeni filozof.
01:22
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
01:24
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
01:29
So the power of reframing things
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Snaga promene na;ina posmatranja
01:34
cannot be overstated.
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ne može biti prenaglašena.
01:37
What we have is exactly the same thing, the same activity,
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Ovo što imamo je potpuno ista stvar, ista aktivnost,
01:41
but one of them makes you feel great
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jedna čini da se osetiš velikim,
01:43
and the other one, with just a small change of posture,
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a druga, sa malom izmenom stava
01:46
makes you feel terrible.
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čini da se osećaš grozno.
01:49
And I think one of the problems with classical economics
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Mislim da je jedan od problema klasične ekonomije
01:51
is it's absolutely preoccupied with reality.
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njena potpuna preokupiranost realnošću.
01:54
And reality isn't a particularly good guide to human happiness.
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Realnost nije posebno dobar put za ljudsku sreću.
01:59
Why, for example,
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Zbog čega su, na primer,
02:01
are pensioners much happier
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penzioneri mnogo srećniji
02:04
than the young unemployed?
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od mladih koji su nezaposleni?
02:06
Both of them, after all, are in exactly the same stage of life.
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Obe kategorije su u istoj životnoj fazi.
02:10
You both have too much time on your hands and not much money.
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Obe imaju previše vremena i ne mnogo novca.
02:13
But pensioners are reportedly very, very happy,
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Ali penzioneri su izgleda jako srećni,
02:16
whereas the unemployed are extraordinarily unhappy and depressed.
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dok su nezaposleni izuzetno nesrećni i depresivni.
02:20
The reason, I think, is that the pensioners believe they've chosen to be pensioners,
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Mislim da penzioneri misle da su izabrani da budu penzioneri,
02:24
whereas the young unemployed
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dok mladi nezaposleni
02:26
feel it's been thrust upon them.
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misle da im je to nametnuto.
02:29
In England the upper middle classes have actually solved this problem perfectly,
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Viša srednja klasa u Engleskoj je izvrsno rešila ovaj problem,
02:33
because they've re-branded unemployment.
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jer su rebrendirali nezaposlenost.
02:36
If you're an upper-middle-class English person,
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Ako ste Englez iz više srednje klase,
02:38
you call unemployment "a year off."
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nazivate nezaposlenost "slobodna godina".
02:41
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
02:43
And that's because having a son who's unemployed in Manchester
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To je zato što je sramota imati
02:47
is really quite embarrassing,
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nezaposlenog sina u Mančesteru,
02:49
but having a son who's unemployed in Thailand
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dok je imati nezaposlenog sina na Tajlandu
02:52
is really viewed as quite an accomplishment.
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u stvari priznanje.
02:54
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
02:56
But actually the power to re-brand things --
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Moć da se stvari rebrendiraju --
02:58
to understand that actually our experiences, costs, things
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da shvatimo da u stvari naša iskustva, cene, stvari
03:03
don't actually much depend on what they really are,
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ne zavise mnogo od toga šta su zaista,
03:06
but on how we view them --
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već od toga kako ih vidimo --
03:08
I genuinely think can't be overstated.
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zaista mislim da ne može biti precenjena.
03:10
There's an experiment I think Daniel Pink refers to
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Ima jedan eksperiment Danijela Pinka
03:13
where you put two dogs in a box
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sa dva psa u kutiji
03:16
and the box has an electric floor.
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koja ima električni pod.
03:20
Every now and then an electric shock is applied to the floor,
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Povremeno se propusti struja kroz pod
03:25
which pains the dogs.
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i to ih boli.
03:27
The only difference is one of the dogs has a small button in its half of the box.
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Jedina razlika je da jedan pas ima malo dugme na svojoj polovini kutije.
03:32
And when it nuzzles the button, the electric shock stops.
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Kad pritisne dugme, šok prestaje.
03:36
The other dog doesn't have the button.
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Drugi pas nema dugme.
03:39
It's exposed to exactly the same level of pain as the dog in the first box,
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On je izložen potpuno istoj boli kao i pas u prvoj kutiji,
03:43
but it has no control over the circumstances.
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ali on ne može da kontroliše situaciju.
03:46
Generally the first dog can be relatively content.
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Prvi pas može biti relativno zadovoljan.
03:50
The second dog lapses into complete depression.
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Drugi pas pada u potpunu depresiju.
03:54
The circumstances of our lives may actually matter less to our happiness
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Okolnosti u našim životima možda manje doprinose našoj sreći,
03:59
than the sense of control we feel over our lives.
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od osećaja kontrole koji imamo nad svojim životima.
04:03
It's an interesting question.
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To je jedno zanimljivo pitanje.
04:06
We ask the question -- the whole debate in the Western world
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Postavljamo pitanje -- debatu u zapadnom svetu,
04:09
is about the level of taxation.
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pitanje o visini poreza.
04:11
But I think there's another debate to be asked,
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Ja mislim da bi trebalo diskutovati o drugoj stvari,
04:13
which is the level of control we have over our tax money.
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koji je nivo kontrole koji imamo nad našim novcem za porez.
04:17
That what costs us 10 pounds in one context can be a curse.
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Nešto čija je cena 10 funti u jednoj priči, u drugoj može biti prokletstvo.
04:21
What costs us 10 pounds in a different context we may actually welcome.
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Ono što nas košta 10 funti mi možemo da pozdravimo u drugom kontekstu.
04:27
You know, pay 20,000 pounds in tax toward health
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Plati 20 000 funti za porez u zdravstvu
04:31
and you're merely feeling a mug.
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i osećaš se jadno.
04:33
Pay 20,000 pounds to endow a hospital ward
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Plati 20 000 funti kao donaciju odeljenju
04:37
and you're called a philanthropist.
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i već si filantrop.
04:39
I'm probably in the wrong country to talk about willingness to pay tax.
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Verovatno sam u pogrešnoj državi da bih govorio o spremnosti za plaćanjem poreza.
04:43
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
04:45
So I'll give you one in return. How you frame things really matters.
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Daću vam jedan primer. Zaista je važno kako se stvari posmatraju.
04:50
Do you call it the bailout of Greece
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Da li se kaže spasavanje Grčke
04:53
or the bailout of a load of stupid banks which lent to Greece?
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ili spasavanje glupih banaka koje su pozajmile novac Grčkoj?
04:56
Because they are actually the same thing.
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Jer to je u stvari ista stvar.
04:59
What you call them actually affects
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Kako nazivate te stvari, utiče na
05:01
how you react to them, viscerally and morally.
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vašu reakciju na njih, intuitivno i moralno.
05:05
I think psychological value is great to be absolutely honest.
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Po meni je, ako ćemo iskreno, psihološka vrednost sjajna.
05:08
One of my great friends, a professor called Nick Chater,
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Moj veliki prijatelj, profesor Nik Čater,
05:11
who's the Professor of Decision Sciences in London,
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profesor nauka o odlukama u Londonu,
05:14
believes that we should spend far less time
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veruje da bi trebalo da provodimo mnogo manje vremena
05:17
looking into humanity's hidden depths
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u proučavanju skrivenih dubina čovečanstva,
05:19
and spend much more time exploring the hidden shallows.
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a mnogo više u proučavanju skrivenih plićaka.
05:22
I think that's true actually.
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Mislim da je to tačno.
05:23
I think impressions have an insane effect
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Utisci imaju neverovatan uticaj
05:26
on what we think and what we do.
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na to šta mislimo i radimo.
05:28
But what we don't have is a really good model of human psychology.
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Ono što nemamo je zaista dobar model ljudske psihologije.
05:33
At least pre-Kahneman perhaps,
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Do pre Kanemana,
05:35
we didn't have a really good model of human psychology
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nismo imali stvarno dobar model ljudske psihologije
05:38
to put alongside models of engineering, of neoclassical economics.
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paralelan sa inženjerstvom, neoklasičnom ekonomijom.
05:42
So people who believed in psychological solutions didn't have a model.
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Tako da oni koji su verovali u psihološka rešenja, nisu imali model.
05:46
We didn't have a framework.
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Nismo imali obrazac.
05:48
This is what Warren Buffett's business partner Charlie Munger calls
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Ovo je prema Čarliju Mangeru, poslovnom partneru Vorena Bafeta,
05:51
"a latticework on which to hang your ideas."
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"mreža za oslanjanje ideja."
05:53
Engineers, economists, classical economists
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Inženjeri, ekonomisti, klasični ekonomisti,
05:57
all had a very, very robust existing latticework
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svi su imali vrlo čvrstu mrežu,
06:00
on which practically every idea could be hung.
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na koju se mogla okačiti svaka ideja.
06:03
We merely have a collection of random individual insights
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Mi jedva da imamo neku kolekciju raznih individualnih saznanja
06:06
without an overall model.
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bez nekog opšteg modela.
06:09
And what that means is that in looking at solutions,
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To znači da smo gledajući kakva su rešenja,
06:13
we've probably given too much priority
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verovatno previše važnosti davali
06:16
to what I call technical engineering solutions, Newtonian solutions,
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inženjersko-tehničkim rešenjima, njutnovskim rešenjima,
06:20
and not nearly enough to the psychological ones.
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a ni izbliza dovoljno psihološkim.
06:23
You know my example of the Eurostar.
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Znate za moj primer Eurostara.
06:25
Six million pounds spent to reduce the journey time
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Šest miliona funti je potrošeno da bi se skratilo vreme putovanja
06:27
between Paris and London by about 40 minutes.
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između Pariza i Londona za oko 40 min.
06:31
For 0.01 percent of this money you could have put WiFi on the trains,
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Sa 0,01 posto ovog novca mogao se uvesti bežični internet u vozovima,
06:36
which wouldn't have reduced the duration of the journey,
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što ne bi skratilo vreme putovanja,
06:38
but would have improved its enjoyment and its usefullness far more.
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ali bi značajno popravilo uživanje i korist.
06:42
For maybe 10 percent of the money,
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Sa možda 10 posto novca,
06:44
you could have paid all of the world's top male and female supermodels
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mogli su se platiti svi najbolji svetski muški i ženski supermodeli
06:48
to walk up and down the train handing out free Chateau Petrus to all the passengers.
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koji bi išli kroz voz i nudili besplatan Šato Petrus (crno vino) svim putnicima.
06:53
You'd still have five [million] pounds in change,
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Još bi preostalo pet milijardi funti
06:56
and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down.
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i ljudi bi tražili da vozovi idu sporije.
06:59
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
07:02
Why were we not given the chance
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Zbog čega nam nije omogućeno
07:05
to solve that problem psychologically?
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da rešimo ovaj problem psihološki?
07:07
I think it's because there's an imbalance, an asymmetry,
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Mislim da je to zbog toga što postoji disbalans, asimetrija
07:10
in the way we treat creative, emotionally-driven psychological ideas
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u načinu na koji tretiramo kreativne, emotivno podstaknute psihološke ideje
07:14
versus the way we treat rational, numerical, spreadsheet-driven ideas.
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spram načina na koji tretiramo racionalne, numeričke, tabelarne ideje.
07:20
If you're a creative person, I think quite rightly,
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Ako ste kreativna osoba,
07:22
you have to share all your ideas for approval
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morate da dajete ideje na odobrenje
07:24
with people much more rational than you.
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mnogo racionalnijim ljudima od sebe.
07:26
You have to go in and you have to have a cost-benefit analysis,
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Treba da se prijavite i da imate analizu troškova,
07:30
a feasibility study, an ROI study and so forth.
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studiju izvodljivosti, detaljna istraživanja "ROI" (povrata ulaganja).
07:33
And I think that's probably right.
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Mislim da je to verovatno ispravno.
07:35
But this does not apply the other way around.
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Ali ne važi u suprotnom smeru.
07:38
People who have an existing framework,
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Ljudi koji imaju postojeći
07:40
an economic framework, an engineering framework,
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ekonomski, inženjerski okvir,
07:43
feel that actually logic is its own answer.
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osećaju da je logika u stvari odgovor.
07:46
What they don't say is, "Well the numbers all seem to add up,
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Ono što oni ne kažu je "Izgleda da se svi brojevi sabiraju,
07:49
but before I present this idea, I'll go and show it to some really crazy people
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ali pre nego što predstavim ovu ideju, pokazaću je nekim zaista otkačenim ljudima
07:52
to see if they can come up with something better."
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da vidim da li će oni smisliti nešto bolje."
07:55
And so we, artificially I think, prioritize
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Tako dajemo, po meni pogrešno, veću važnost
07:58
what I'd call mechanistic ideas over psychological ideas.
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mehaničkim nad psihološkim idejama.
08:02
An example of a great psychological idea:
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Jedan primer odlične psihološke ideje:
08:05
The single best improvement in passenger satisfaction on the London Underground per pound spent
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jedinstveno poboljšanje zadovoljstva putnika u londonskoj podzemnoj železnici
08:10
came when they didn't add any extra trains nor change the frequency of the trains,
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nije došlo jer je povećan broj vozova i njihova učestalost,
08:15
they put dot matrix display board on the platforms.
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već zato što su postavili matrični displej na platformama.
08:18
Because the nature of a wait
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Priroda čekanja je takva
08:21
is not just dependent on its numerical quality, its duration,
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da ne zavisi samo od svoje brojčane vrednosti, trajanja
08:24
but on the level of uncertainty you experience during that wait.
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već od nivoa nesigurnosti koji doživljavamo dok čekamo.
08:27
Waiting seven minutes for a train with a countdown clock
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Čekati voz sedam minuta sa satom koji odbrojava
08:30
is less frustrating and irritating
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je manje frustrirajuće i iritirajuće
08:32
than waiting four minutes, knuckle-biting
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nego čekanje četiri minuta sa nerviranjem
08:34
going, "When's this train going to damn well arrive?"
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u razmišljanju: "Kad će ovaj prokleti voz stići?"
08:38
Here's a beautiful example of a psychological solution deployed in Korea.
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Evo lep primer psihološkog rešenja sprovedenog u Koreji.
08:41
Red traffic lights have a countdown delay.
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Crvena svetla na semaforu imaju odbrojavanje.
08:44
It's proven to reduce the accident rate in experiments.
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Eksperimentalno je potvrđeno da je smanjena stopa nesreća.
08:47
Why? Because road rage, impatience and general irritation
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Zašto? Zato što su bes, nestrpljenje i iritacija
08:50
are massively reduced when you can actually see the time you have to wait.
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drastično smanjeni kad zaista vidite vreme čekanja.
08:55
In China, not really understanding the principle behind this,
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U Kini su, ne razumem zašto, isti ovaj princip
08:58
they applied the same principle to green traffic lights.
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primenili i na zelena svetla na semaforima.
09:01
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
09:04
Which isn't a great idea.
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To nije dobra ideja.
09:07
You're 200 yards away, you realize you've got five seconds to go, you floor it.
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Na 200 metara ste, shvatite da imate pet sekundi da prođete, dodate gas.
09:11
(Laughter)
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(smeh)
09:13
The Koreans, very assiduously, did test both.
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Koreanci su vrlo temeljno, testirali oba.
09:17
The accident rate goes down when you apply this to red traffic lights;
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Stopa nesreća se smanjuje kad se ovo primeni na crvena svetla,
09:20
it goes up when you apply it to green traffic lights.
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a povećava kod primene na zelenim svetlima.
09:23
This is all I'm asking for really in human decision making,
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To je sve što tražim u odlukama ljudi
09:26
is the consideration of these three things.
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uzimanje u obzir sve tri stvari (tehnologija, psihologija, ekonomija).
09:28
I'm not asking for the complete primacy of one over the other.
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Ne tražim potpuni primat jedne stvari nad drugom.
09:31
I'm merely saying that when you solve problems,
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Jednostavno kažem da kad rešavate problem,
09:33
you should look at all three of these equally
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sve tri stvari treba da jednako posmatrate,
09:35
and you should seek as far as possible
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treba da što dublje tražite
09:38
to find solutions which sit in the sweet spot in the middle.
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rešenja koja su u sredini.
09:41
If you actually look at a great business,
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Zapravo, ako pogledate uspešan biznis
09:43
you'll nearly always see all of these three things coming into play.
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skoro uvek su sve tri stvari u igri.
09:46
Really, really successful businesses --
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Zaista uspešni biznisi --
09:49
Google is great, great technological success,
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Google je fantastičan tehnološki uspeh,
09:51
but it's also based on a very good psychological insight:
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ali je baziran na odličnom psihološkom uvidu:
09:54
People believe something that only does one thing
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ljudi veruju da je nešto što radi samo jednu stvar,
09:58
is better at that thing than something that does that thing and something else.
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bolje od nečeg drugog što radi još nešto.
10:02
It's an innate thing called goal dilution.
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To je urođeno i zove se razblaživanje ciljeva.
10:05
Ayelet Fishbach has written a paper about this.
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Ejlet Fišbah je napisala članak o tome.
10:07
Everybody else at the time of Google, more or less,
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Svi drugi su u vremenu Googla manje-više,
10:10
was trying to be a portal.
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pokušavali da budu portal.
10:11
Yes, there's a search function,
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Da, tu je opcija pretrage,
10:12
but you also have weather, sports scores, bits of news.
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takođe imate vreme, sportske rezultate, malo vesti.
10:16
Google understood that if you're just a search engine,
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Google je razumeo da ako si samo pretraživač,
10:19
people assume you're a very, very good search engine.
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ljudi podrazumevaju da si onda veoma dobar pretraživač.
10:22
All of you know this actually
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Svi znamo da
10:24
from when you go in to buy a television.
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kad idemo da kupimo televizor.
10:26
And in the shabbier end of the row of flat screen TVs
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Na samom kraju niza televizora sa ravnim ekranom
10:29
you can see are these rather despised things called combined TV and DVD players.
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mogu se videti one neomiljene stvari koje zovu kombinovani televizori sa DVD plejerom.
10:34
And we have no knowledge whatsoever of the quality of those things,
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Mi nemamo nikakvo saznanje o kvalitetu tih stvari,
10:37
but we look at a combined TV and DVD player and we go, "Uck.
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ali pri pogledu na kombinovani televizor sa DVD-ejm: "Uh.
10:41
It's probably a bit of a crap telly and a bit rubbish as a DVD player."
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To je verovatno đubre i od televizora i DVD plejera."
10:46
So we walk out of the shops with one of each.
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Tako da izađemo iz prodavnice sa oba.
10:48
Google is as much a psychological success as it is a technological one.
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Google je podjednako i psihološki i tehnološki uspeh.
10:53
I propose that we can use psychology to solve problems
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Predlažem da koristimo psihologiju za rešavanje problema
10:56
that we didn't even realize were problems at all.
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za koje nismo ni znali da postoje.
10:59
This is my suggestion for getting people to finish their course of antibiotics.
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Ovo je moj predlog da se ljudi nateraju da završe kuru antibiotika.
11:02
Don't give them 24 white pills.
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Nemojte im dati 24 bele pilule.
11:05
Give them 18 white pills and six blue ones
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Dajte im 18 belih i 6 plavih
11:07
and tell them to take the white pills first and then take the blue ones.
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i recite im da prvo troše bele, a zatim plave.
11:11
It's called chunking.
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To se zove seckanje.
11:13
The likelihood that people will get to the end is much greater
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Mnogo je veća verovatnoća da će ljudi stići do cilja
11:16
when there is a milestone somewhere in the middle.
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ako negde u sredini postoji značajan događaj.
11:19
One of the great mistakes, I think, of economics
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Po meni je velika greška u ekonomiji ta
11:22
is it fails to understand that what something is,
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što nema razumevanja da nešto,
11:24
whether it's retirement, unemployment, cost,
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kao što su odlazak u penziju, nezaposlenost, trošak,
11:28
is a function, not only of its amount, but also its meaning.
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ne zavisi samo od količine, već i od značenja.
11:33
This is a toll crossing in Britain.
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Ovo je naplatna rampa u Britaniji.
11:36
Quite often queues happen at the tolls.
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Vrlo često se stvaraju redovi na rampama.
11:39
Sometimes you get very, very severe queues.
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Nekad su to jako dugi redovi.
11:41
You could apply the same principle actually, if you like,
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1998
Isti princip se može primeniti ako želite,
11:43
to the security lanes in airports.
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na sigurnosne trake na aerodromima.
11:45
What would happen if you could actually pay twice as much money to cross the bridge,
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3825
Šta bi bilo ako biste mogli da platite duplo da biste prešli preko mosta,
11:49
but go through a lane that's an express lane?
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2384
ali kroz ekspres traku?
11:51
It's not an unreasonable thing to do. It's an economically efficient thing to do.
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To nije nerazumno. To je ekonomski isplativo.
11:55
Time means more to some people than others.
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Vreme nekim ljudima znači više.
11:57
If you're waiting trying to get to a job interview,
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Ako čekate da biste otišli na razgovor za posao,
12:00
you'd patently pay a couple of pounds more to go through the fast lane.
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3967
sigurno biste platili da prođete kroz brzu traku.
12:04
If you're on the way to visit your mother in-law,
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Ako idete da posetite taštu,
12:07
you'd probably prefer to stay on the left.
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verovatno biste pre ostali levo.
12:11
The only problem is if you introduce this economically efficient solution,
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Jedini problem je ako izložite ovo ekonomski isplativo rešenje,
12:15
people hate it.
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ljudi ga ne vole.
12:17
Because they think you're deliberately creating delays at the bridge
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Oni misle da namerno stvaraš zastoj na mostu
12:20
in order to maximize your revenue,
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da bi povećao svoj prihod:
12:21
and "Why on earth should I pay to subsidize your imcompetence?"
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3973
"Zaboga, zašto da subvencionišem tvoju nekompetentnost?"
12:25
On the other hand, change the frame slightly
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Ali ako malo preoblikuješ stvari,
12:27
and create charitable yield management,
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napraviš menadžment za upravljanje dobrovoljnim davanjima,
12:30
so the extra money you get goes not to the bridge company, it goes to charity,
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tako da dodatni novac ne ide kompaniji čiji je most, već u dobrotvorne svrhe,
12:35
and the mental willingness to pay completely changes.
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3216
spremnost da se plati se potpuno menja.
12:38
You have a relatively economically efficient solution,
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Imaš ekonomski isplativo rešenje,
12:42
but one that actually meets with public approval
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koje ima javno odobravanje,
12:44
and even a small degree of affection,
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2189
čak malu dozu naklonosti,
12:46
rather than being seen as bastardy.
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umesto bezobrazluka.
12:49
So where economists make the fundamental mistake
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3233
Ono gde ekonomisti prave osnovnu grešku
12:52
is they think that money is money.
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je što misle da je novac novac.
12:55
Actually my pain experienced in paying five pounds
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Moj bol kad plaćam pet funti
13:00
is not just proportionate to the amount,
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2100
nije samo proporcionalan sumi,
13:02
but where I think that money is going.
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već i mestu gde ja mislim da taj novac ide.
13:04
And I think understanding that could revolutionize tax policy.
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Mislim da razumevanje ovoga može izazvati revoluciju u poreskoj politici.
13:07
It could revolutionize the public services.
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Može promeniti javne usluge.
13:10
It could really change things quite significantly.
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Može značajno promeniti stvari.
13:12
Here's a guy you all need to study.
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Ovde je čovek kog svi treba da proučimo.
13:15
He's an Austrian school economist
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779175
1904
On je đak austrijske škole ekonomije
13:16
who was first active in the first half of the 20th century in Vienna.
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5211
koji bio je aktivan u prvoj polovini dvadesetog veka u Beču.
13:22
What was interesting about the Austrian school
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1845
Austrijska škola je zanimljiva jer je
13:24
is they actually grew up alongside Freud.
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rasla paralelno sa Frojdovom školom.
13:27
And so they're predominantly interested in psychology.
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Uglavnom ih je interesovala psihologija.
13:29
They believed that there was a discipline called praxeology,
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Verovali su u disciplinu nazvanu prakseologija,
13:34
which is a prior discipline to the study of economics.
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koja je bila disciplina pre ekonomskih nauka.
13:36
Praxeology is the study of human choice, action and decision making.
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Prakseologija je nauka o ljudskom izboru, delovanju i procesu odlučivanja.
13:41
I think they're right.
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Mislim da su u pravu.
13:43
I think the danger we have in today's world
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2084
Mislim da je opasnost u današnjem svetu
13:45
is we have the study of economics
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1869
to što studija ekonomije
13:47
considers itself to be a prior discipline to the study of human psychology.
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smatra sebe prethodnikom studije ljudske psihologije.
13:51
But as Charlie Munger says, "If economics isn't behavioral,
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Čarli Manger kaže: "Ako ekonomija nije bihevioralna,
13:54
I don't know what the hell is."
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2245
onda dođavola ne znam šta jeste."
13:56
Von Mises, interestingly, believes economics is just a subset of psychology.
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6538
Zanimljivo je da Fon Mizes veruje da je ekonomija samo deo psihologije.
14:03
I think he just refers to economics as
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1824
On za ekonomiju kaže da je
14:05
"the study of human praxeology under conditions of scarcity."
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"nauka o ljudskoj prakseologiji pod uslovima oskudice."
14:08
But von Mises, among many other things,
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Među mnogim stvarima Fon Mizes
14:11
I think uses an analogy which is probably the best justification and explanation
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uzima analogiju koja je najbolje opravdanje i objašnjenje
14:17
for the value of marketing, the value of perceived value
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3180
za marketinšku vrednost, vrednost doživljene vrednosti
14:20
and the fact that we should actually treat it as being absolutely equivalent
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4089
i činjenicu da bi trebalo da je tretiramo kao potpuno jednaku
14:24
to any other kind of value.
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1623
sa bilo kojom drugom vrednošću.
14:26
We tend to, all of us -- even those of us who work in marketing --
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2534
Svi mi nastojimo -- čak i oni koji rade u prodaji --
14:28
to think of value in two ways.
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1516
da vidimo vrednost na dva načina.
14:30
There's the real value,
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1152
Postoji stvarna vrednost,
14:31
which is when you make something in a factory and provide a service,
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1860
koja nastaje u fabrici ili kad pružite uslugu,
14:33
and then there's a kind of dubious value,
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2163
i postoji takoreći diskutabilna vrednost,
14:35
which you create by changing the way people look at things.
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2521
koju napravite promenom načina na koji ljudi gledaju na stvar.
14:38
Von Mises completely rejected this distinction.
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Fon Mizes potpuno odbacuje ovu razliku.
14:41
And he used this following analogy.
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1716
On koristi sledeću analogiju.
14:42
He referred actually to strange economists called the French Physiocrats,
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5215
On se oslanja na čudne ekonomiste tzv. francuske fiziokrate,
14:48
who believed that the only true value was what you extracted from the land.
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4327
koji su verovali da je jedina prava vrednost ona koja se dobije iz zemlje.
14:52
So if you're a shepherd or a quarryman or a farmer,
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2596
Tako da ako ste pastir, rudar ili zemljoradnik,
14:54
you created true value.
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1765
vi stvarate pravu vrednost.
14:56
If however, you bought some wool from the shepherd
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2468
Ako ste kupili vunu od pastira
14:59
and charged a premium for converting it into a hat,
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3139
i naplatili zaradu pravljenjem šešira,
15:02
you weren't actually creating value,
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2334
vi u stvari ne pravite novu vrednost,
15:04
you were exploiting the shepherd.
292
888792
1967
vi eksploatišete pastira.
15:06
Now von Mises said that modern economists make exactly the same mistake
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3866
Fon Mizes kaže da savremeni ekonomisti prave upravo istu grešku
15:10
with regard to advertising and marketing.
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2152
u odnosu na reklame i marketing.
15:12
He says, if you run a restaurant,
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2390
On kaže da ako vodiš restoran,
15:15
there is no healthy distinction to be made
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2208
nema jasne razlike
15:17
between the value you create by cooking the food
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2458
između vrednosti koju stvaraš kuvajući
15:19
and the value you create by sweeping the floor.
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2167
i vrednosti koju stvaraš brišući pod.
15:21
One of them creates, perhaps, the primary product --
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3212
Jedna od njih možda stvara glavni proizvod --
15:25
the thing we think we're paying for --
300
909212
1469
ono šta plaćamo --
15:26
the other one creates a context
301
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1654
druga stvara kontekst
15:28
within which we can enjoy and appreciate that product.
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3317
u kom možemo da uživamo u proizvodu.
15:31
And the idea that one of them should actually have priority over the other
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3015
Ideja da je jedna od tih stvari važnija je
15:34
is fundamentally wrong.
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2166
suštinski pogrešna.
15:36
Try this quick thought experiment.
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1260
Pokušajte ovaj brzi eksperiment.
15:37
Imagine a restaurant that serves Michelin-starred food,
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2607
Zamislite restoran koji služi hranu sa Mišelin zvezdom,
15:40
but actually where the restaurant smells of sewage
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2658
a u stvari restoran smrdi na kanalizaciju
15:43
and there's human feces on the floor.
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4076
i ljudski izmet je na podu.
15:47
The best thing you can do there to create value
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2300
Da biste napravili vrednost, nije najbolje
15:49
is not actually to improve the food still further,
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3191
još popravljati hranu,
15:52
it's to get rid of the smell and clean up the floor.
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3994
već rešiti se smrada i očistiti pod.
15:56
And it's vital we understand this.
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3179
Veoma je važno shvatiti ovo.
15:59
If that seems like some strange, abstruse thing,
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2223
Deluje kao čudna, nejasna stvar, ali
16:02
in the U.K., the post office had a 98 percent success rate
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4466
u Velikoj Britaniji, pošta je imala 98 posto uspešnosti
16:06
at delivering first-class mail the next day.
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2338
u dostavljanju pošte prve klase sutradan.
16:09
They decided this wasn't good enough
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953125
2367
Odlučeno je da to nije dovoljno dobro
16:11
and they wanted to get it up to 99.
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955492
1962
i hteli su da podignu ovaj nivo na 99 posto.
16:13
The effort to do that almost broke the organization.
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4314
Da bi ovo uradili skoro su uništili organizaciju.
16:17
If at the same time you'd gone and asked people,
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3065
Da ste u isto vreme pitali ljude:
16:20
"What percentage of first-class mail arrives the next day?"
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3292
"Koji procenat pošte prve klase stiže sutradan?"
16:24
the average answer, or the modal answer would have been 50 to 60 percent.
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4505
prosečan odgovor bi bio 50 do 60 posto.
16:28
Now if your perception is much worse than your reality,
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2603
Ako je vaša percepcija mnogo gora od realnosti,
16:31
what on earth are you doing trying to change the reality?
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3500
zbog čega zaboga pokušavate da promenite realnost?
16:34
That's like trying to improve the food in a restaurant that stinks.
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4202
To je isto kao popravljanje hrane u restoranu koji smrdi.
16:38
What you need to do
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2065
Ono što treba da uradite
16:40
is first of all tell people
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1660
je da prvo kažete ljudima
16:42
that 98 percent of mail gets there the next day, first-class mail.
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4175
da 98 posto pošte prve klase stiže sutradan.
16:46
That's pretty good.
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1707
To je dosta dobro.
16:48
I would argue, in Britain there's a much better frame of reference,
329
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2625
Reći ću vam, u Britaniji postoji mnogo bolji okvir,
16:51
which is to tell people
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1598
a to je reći ljudima
16:52
that more first-class mail arrives the next day
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2025
da više pošte prve klase stiže sutradan
16:54
in the U.K. than in Germany.
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2058
u Britaniji nego u Nemačkoj.
16:56
Because generally in Britain if you want to make us happy about something,
333
1000848
2527
Ako hoćete da nas u Britaniji napravite srećnim zbog nečega,
16:59
just tell us we do it better than the Germans.
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1003375
2396
samo recite da to radimo bolje od Nemaca.
17:01
(Laughter)
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1005771
1575
(smeh)
17:03
(Applause)
336
1007346
2275
(aplauz)
17:05
Choose your frame of reference and the perceived value
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4629
Izaberite svoj referentni okvir i percepciju
17:10
and therefore the actual value is completely tranformed.
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i samim tim stvarna vrednost je potpuno transformisana.
17:13
It has to be said of the Germans
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U vezi sa Nemcima, mora se reći da
17:15
that the Germans and the French are doing a brilliant job
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Nemci i Francuzi rade briljantan posao
17:17
of creating a united Europe.
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u stvaranju ujedinjene Evrope.
17:19
The only thing they don't expect is they're uniting Europe
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Jedina stvar koju oni ne očekuju je da ujedinjuju Evropu
17:21
through a shared mild hatred of the French and Germans.
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kroz blagu mržnju Francuza i Nemaca.
17:24
But I'm British, that's the way we like it.
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Ali ja sam Britanac, mi to tako volimo.
17:27
What you also notice is that in any case our perception is leaky.
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Primećujete da je u svakom slučaju naša percepija loša.
17:32
We can't tell the difference between the quality of the food
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Ne možemo navesti razliku između kvaliteta hrane
17:35
and the environment in which we consume it.
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i sredine u kojoj je konzumiramo.
17:37
All of you will have seen this phenomenon
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Svi ste videli ovaj fenomen
17:39
if you have your car washed or valeted.
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ako ste oprali ili servisirali auto.
17:41
When you drive away, your car feels as if it drives better.
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Posle odlaska, osećate kao da vaš auto ide bolje.
17:45
And the reason for this,
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Razlog je,
17:47
unless my car valet mysteriously is changing the oil
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osim ako su mi u servisu misteriozno promenili ulje
17:50
and performing work which I'm not paying him for and I'm unaware of,
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ili uradili nešto što nisam platio ili ne znam,
17:53
is because perception is in any case leaky.
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to što percepcija u svakom slučaju nije dobra.
17:55
Analgesics that are branded are more effective at reducing pain
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Brendirani analgetici su mnogo bolji u efektima smanjivanja bola
17:59
than analgesics that are not branded.
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od analgetika koji nisu brenidrani.
18:02
I don't just mean through reported pain reduction,
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Ne mislim samo na prijavljeno smanjenje bola,
18:04
actual measured pain reduction.
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već na izmereno smanjenje bola.
18:06
And so perception actually is leaky in any case.
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Tako da je percepcija u stvari slaba u svakom slučaju.
18:10
So if you do something that's perceptually bad in one respect,
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Ako uradite nešto što je pogrešno iz jedne perspektive,
18:14
you can damage the other.
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možete da oštetite drugu.
18:16
Thank you very much.
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Puno vam hvala.
18:17
(Applause)
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(aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rory Sutherland - Advertising guruRory Sutherland stands at the center of an advertising revolution in brand identities, designing cutting-edge, interactive campaigns that blur the line between ad and entertainment.
Why you should listen
From unlikely beginnings as a classics teacher to his current job as Vice Chairman of Ogilvy Group, Rory Sutherland has created his own brand of the Cinderella story. He joined Ogilvy & Mather's planning department in 1988, and became a junior copywriter, working on Microsoft's account in its pre-Windows days. An early fan of the Internet, he was among the first in the traditional ad world to see the potential in these relatively unknown technologies.
An immediate understanding of the possibilities of digital technology and the Internet powered Sutherland's meteoric rise. He continues to provide insight into advertising in the age of the Internet and social media through his blog at Campaign's Brand Republic site, his column "The Wiki Man" at The Spectator and his busy Twitter account.
Rory Sutherland | Speaker | TED.com