TEDxAthens
Rory Sutherland: Perspective is everything
Rory Sutherland: 看法決定一切
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Rory Sutherland認為，人生中的各種境遇不如我們對此境遇的看法重要。在TEDxAthens，他令人信服地闡釋了轉變看法是獲得幸福的關鍵。
Rory Sutherland - Advertising guru
Rory Sutherland stands at the center of an advertising revolution in brand identities, designing cutting-edge, interactive campaigns that blur the line between ad and entertainment. Full bio
Rory Sutherland stands at the center of an advertising revolution in brand identities, designing cutting-edge, interactive campaigns that blur the line between ad and entertainment. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:16
What you have here
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我拿著的
00:18
is an electronic cigarette.
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是一根電子香煙
00:21
It's something that's, since it was invented a year or two ago,
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它自從一兩年前被發明後
00:25
has given me untold happiness.
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已帶給我不可言喻的快樂
00:27
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:28
A little bit of it, I think, is the nicotine,
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一小部分原因是尼古丁
00:30
but there's something much bigger than that.
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但還有更重要的原因
00:32
Which is ever since, in the U.K., they banned smoking in public places,
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自從英國禁止在公共場所吸煙
00:37
I've never enjoyed a drinks party ever again.
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我就再也沒有享受過酒會了
00:41
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:42
And the reason, I only worked out just the other day,
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我不久前才總結出個原因
00:46
which is when you go to a drinks party
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就是當你來到一場酒會
00:48
and you stand up and you hold a glass of red wine
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站在那裡，手拿一杯紅酒
00:50
and you talk endlessly to people,
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口若懸河
00:51
you don't actually want to spend all the time talking.
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你可不願意一直講話
00:54
It's really, really tiring.
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那太累了
00:56
Sometimes you just want to stand there silently, alone with your thoughts.
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有時候你只是想靜靜地站著想點事情
01:00
Sometimes you just want to stand in the corner and stare out of the window.
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有時候你只是想站在角落望著窗外
01:04
Now the problem is, when you can't smoke,
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問題來了——當你不能抽煙的時候
01:07
if you stand and stare out of the window on your own,
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如果你獨自一人站著並望著窗外
01:11
you're an antisocial, friendless idiot.
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你就是個沒朋友的社交白癡
01:14
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:15
If you stand and stare out of the window on your own with a cigarette,
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如果你獨自站著望向窗外，拿著一根煙
01:19
you're a fucking philosopher.
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你就是個深沉的哲學家
01:22
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
01:24
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
01:29
So the power of reframing things
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所以說重新定義事物的威力
01:34
cannot be overstated.
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怎麼講都不會太誇大
01:37
What we have is exactly the same thing, the same activity,
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兩個完全一樣的東西、行為
01:41
but one of them makes you feel great
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其中一種讓你感覺良好
01:43
and the other one, with just a small change of posture,
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而另一種，只要稍作改變
01:46
makes you feel terrible.
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就能讓你感覺極差
01:49
And I think one of the problems with classical economics
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我認為古典經濟學的一個問題
01:51
is it's absolutely preoccupied with reality.
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在於它過分關注現實
01:54
And reality isn't a particularly good guide to human happiness.
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但現實並非是通向人類幸福的好指南
01:59
Why, for example,
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比如說
02:01
are pensioners much happier
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為什麼領退休金的老人
02:04
than the young unemployed?
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比年輕失業者更快樂？
02:06
Both of them, after all, are in exactly the same stage of life.
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畢竟二者的生活型態完全相同
02:10
You both have too much time on your hands and not much money.
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手上有太多時間，卻沒有多少錢可花
02:13
But pensioners are reportedly very, very happy,
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但是退休老人據稱非常非常快樂
02:16
whereas the unemployed are extraordinarily unhappy and depressed.
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而失業者則極度消沉及絕望
02:20
The reason, I think, is that the pensioners believe they've chosen to be pensioners,
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我認為原因在於，退休老人相信
這身份是自己選擇成為的
這身份是自己選擇成為的
02:24
whereas the young unemployed
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而年輕失業者
02:26
feel it's been thrust upon them.
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卻感覺是被迫失業的
02:29
In England the upper middle classes have actually solved this problem perfectly,
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在英國，上層的中產階級
已完美地解決這個問題
已完美地解決這個問題
02:33
because they've re-branded unemployment.
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他們重新包裝了失業這回事
02:36
If you're an upper-middle-class English person,
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如果你屬於英國的上層中產階級
02:38
you call unemployment "a year off."
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你管失業叫「一年假期」
02:41
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:43
And that's because having a son who's unemployed in Manchester
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因為你兒子要是在曼徹斯特失了業
02:47
is really quite embarrassing,
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是一件蠻丟臉的事
02:49
but having a son who's unemployed in Thailand
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但如果你兒子是在泰國賦閒
02:52
is really viewed as quite an accomplishment.
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則是一項非凡的成就
02:54
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
02:56
But actually the power to re-brand things --
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事實上，重新包裝事物的威力是--
02:58
to understand that actually our experiences, costs, things
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瞭解到我們的經驗、花費、事物
03:03
don't actually much depend on what they really are,
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並不太取決於它們自身
03:06
but on how we view them --
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而是取決於我們如何看待它們
03:08
I genuinely think can't be overstated.
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我確實相信這威力不容小覷
03:10
There's an experiment I think Daniel Pink refers to
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我記得Daniel Pink提到過一個實驗
03:13
where you put two dogs in a box
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你把兩隻狗關在箱子裡
03:16
and the box has an electric floor.
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箱子底部通電
03:20
Every now and then an electric shock is applied to the floor,
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不定時的給予電擊
03:25
which pains the dogs.
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讓狗受到痛苦
03:27
The only difference is one of the dogs has a small button in its half of the box.
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唯一的不同是，其中一隻狗
在它那半箱子中有個小按鈕
在它那半箱子中有個小按鈕
03:32
And when it nuzzles the button, the electric shock stops.
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當它用鼻子按那個按鈕
電擊就停止了
電擊就停止了
03:36
The other dog doesn't have the button.
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另一隻狗沒有這個按鈕
03:39
It's exposed to exactly the same level of pain as the dog in the first box,
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它感受到的電擊痛苦與前一隻狗完全相同
03:43
but it has no control over the circumstances.
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但它對局面沒有任何掌控
03:46
Generally the first dog can be relatively content.
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基本上，第一隻狗相對地滿足
03:50
The second dog lapses into complete depression.
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第二隻狗則陷入深深的絕望
03:54
The circumstances of our lives may actually matter less to our happiness
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人生境遇對我們幸福的影響力
03:59
than the sense of control we feel over our lives.
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比不上我們對人生的控制感
04:03
It's an interesting question.
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這是個有趣的問題
04:06
We ask the question -- the whole debate in the Western world
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整個西方世界都在爭論
04:09
is about the level of taxation.
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稅收水準究竟該怎麼定
04:11
But I think there's another debate to be asked,
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但我認為另一個爭論應被提出
04:13
which is the level of control we have over our tax money.
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就是我們對稅款的控制程度
04:17
That what costs us 10 pounds in one context can be a curse.
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在某種情況下花的10英鎊可能是個詛咒
04:21
What costs us 10 pounds in a different context we may actually welcome.
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而在另一種情況下
花去的10英鎊可能倍受歡迎
花去的10英鎊可能倍受歡迎
04:27
You know, pay 20,000 pounds in tax toward health
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你知道，花費2萬英鎊稅金投資健康
04:31
and you're merely feeling a mug.
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你會感到自己是個冤大頭
04:33
Pay 20,000 pounds to endow a hospital ward
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但花費2萬英鎊去捐贈一間醫院病房
04:37
and you're called a philanthropist.
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你會被稱作慈善家
04:39
I'm probably in the wrong country to talk about willingness to pay tax.
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也許我在這個國家不適合談論納稅的意願
04:43
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:45
So I'll give you one in return. How you frame things really matters.
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所以作為補償
我要講如何對事物定調真的很重要
我要講如何對事物定調真的很重要
04:50
Do you call it the bailout of Greece
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到底要稱作對希臘的緊急金援
04:53
or the bailout of a load of stupid banks which lent to Greece?
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還是稱作一堆愚蠢的銀行
笨到貸款給希臘的緊急援助？
笨到貸款給希臘的緊急援助？
04:56
Because they are actually the same thing.
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因為這兩種說法實際上是同一回事
04:59
What you call them actually affects
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你如何定調一個問題
05:01
how you react to them, viscerally and morally.
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會影響到你心理以及倫理上的反應
05:05
I think psychological value is great to be absolutely honest.
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坦白說我認為心理價值非常重要
05:08
One of my great friends, a professor called Nick Chater,
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我有一位很好的朋友
Nick Chater教授
Nick Chater教授
05:11
who's the Professor of Decision Sciences in London,
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在倫敦研究決策科學
05:14
believes that we should spend far less time
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他認為我們應該大大減少
05:17
looking into humanity's hidden depths
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探討人性隱藏深度的時間
05:19
and spend much more time exploring the hidden shallows.
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而把更多時間用在探索人性隱藏的膚淺上
05:22
I think that's true actually.
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我深深以為
05:23
I think impressions have an insane effect
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印象能夠強烈地影響
05:26
on what we think and what we do.
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我們的所想所為
05:28
But what we don't have is a really good model of human psychology.
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但我們缺乏一個人類心理學的好模型
05:33
At least pre-Kahneman perhaps,
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至少可能在卡尼曼之前的年代
05:35
we didn't have a really good model of human psychology
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我們一直都沒有一個比較好的人類心理學模型
05:38
to put alongside models of engineering, of neoclassical economics.
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以與工程學模型和新古典經濟學模型比肩
05:42
So people who believed in psychological solutions didn't have a model.
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因此那些相信心理學解釋的人們
沒有可用的模型
沒有可用的模型
05:46
We didn't have a framework.
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沒有理論框架可用
05:48
This is what Warren Buffett's business partner Charlie Munger calls
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這就是巴菲特的生意夥伴查理‧孟格所稱
05:51
"a latticework on which to hang your ideas."
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“一個用來懸掛你想法的格子框架”
05:53
Engineers, economists, classical economists
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工程師、經濟學家、古典學派經濟學家
05:57
all had a very, very robust existing latticework
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都有一個非常強有力的現有理論框架
06:00
on which practically every idea could be hung.
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用來準確定位任何一個相關想法
06:03
We merely have a collection of random individual insights
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心理學卻只有一些隨機的個人見解
06:06
without an overall model.
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但缺乏整體的理論框架
06:09
And what that means is that in looking at solutions,
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這就意味當我們尋求解決方案時
06:13
we've probably given too much priority
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我們太過側重於
06:16
to what I call technical engineering solutions, Newtonian solutions,
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工程學方面的、牛頓思維的辦法
06:20
and not nearly enough to the psychological ones.
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而對心理學方向的關注遠遠不足
06:23
You know my example of the Eurostar.
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你們都知道我那個關於歐洲之星的例子
06:25
Six million pounds spent to reduce the journey time
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六百億英鎊花在將巴黎與倫敦
06:27
between Paris and London by about 40 minutes.
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之間的車程縮短40分鐘
06:31
For 0.01 percent of this money you could have put WiFi on the trains,
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但只要花這筆錢的1%
你可以讓列車有WiFi網路
你可以讓列車有WiFi網路
06:36
which wouldn't have reduced the duration of the journey,
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這雖然不會縮短旅程的時間
06:38
but would have improved its enjoyment and its usefullness far more.
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但會大大增加旅程的樂趣和用途
06:42
For maybe 10 percent of the money,
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用這筆錢的10分之1
06:44
you could have paid all of the world's top male and female supermodels
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你就能請到全世界的男女超級名模
06:48
to walk up and down the train handing out free Chateau Petrus to all the passengers.
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在走道上向所有旅客分發免費的波得路堡葡萄酒
06:53
You'd still have five [million] pounds in change,
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你還能剩下50億英鎊
06:56
and people would ask for the trains to be slowed down.
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旅客還可能會要求列車減速
06:59
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:02
Why were we not given the chance
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我們為什麼從未嘗試
07:05
to solve that problem psychologically?
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從心理學的角度來解決問題？
07:07
I think it's because there's an imbalance, an asymmetry,
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我想這是因為我們對待以下兩種思維方式
是不平衡、不對稱的
是不平衡、不對稱的
07:10
in the way we treat creative, emotionally-driven psychological ideas
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一種是創造性的、情緒引導的心理學思維方式
07:14
versus the way we treat rational, numerical, spreadsheet-driven ideas.
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另一種理性的、數據的、報表引導的思維方式
07:20
If you're a creative person, I think quite rightly,
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如果你是一個創造性的人
07:22
you have to share all your ideas for approval
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你必須將自己的想法分享給
07:24
with people much more rational than you.
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更理性的人，獲得他們的批准
07:26
You have to go in and you have to have a cost-benefit analysis,
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你必須給出一個成本收益分析
07:30
a feasibility study, an ROI study and so forth.
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一個可行性研究
投資回報率分析之類的東西
投資回報率分析之類的東西
07:33
And I think that's probably right.
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這也許沒有錯
07:35
But this does not apply the other way around.
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但當情況反過來時卻是行不通的
07:38
People who have an existing framework,
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那些已有理論框架
07:40
an economic framework, an engineering framework,
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經濟學框架、工程學框架
07:43
feel that actually logic is its own answer.
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認為邏輯是自身的答案
07:46
What they don't say is, "Well the numbers all seem to add up,
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他們不會說：“數字看來是沒錯
07:49
but before I present this idea, I'll go and show it to some really crazy people
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但我要在報告這個想法之前
我要去問問那些真正瘋狂的人
我要去問問那些真正瘋狂的人
07:52
to see if they can come up with something better."
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看他們能不能有更好的想法。”
07:55
And so we, artificially I think, prioritize
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所以我們人為地
07:58
what I'd call mechanistic ideas over psychological ideas.
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將機械化思維置於心理學思維之上
08:02
An example of a great psychological idea:
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這裡有個關於心理學解決方案的絕佳例子：
08:05
The single best improvement in passenger satisfaction on the London Underground per pound spent
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倫敦地鐵花錢在改善乘客滿意度上最好的措施
08:10
came when they didn't add any extra trains nor change the frequency of the trains,
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並不是增加列車數量
或者改變行班間距
或者改變行班間距
08:15
they put dot matrix display board on the platforms.
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而是在月臺上放置了顯示營幕
08:18
Because the nature of a wait
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由於等待的特性
08:21
is not just dependent on its numerical quality, its duration,
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並不完全取決於等待時間的長度
08:24
but on the level of uncertainty you experience during that wait.
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而是取決於你等待時所感受不確定性的程度
08:27
Waiting seven minutes for a train with a countdown clock
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在計時器的倒計時中等待7分鐘
08:30
is less frustrating and irritating
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其間的沮喪和煩躁遠低於
08:32
than waiting four minutes, knuckle-biting
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只等了四分鐘，但咬著手指不斷逼問
08:34
going, "When's this train going to damn well arrive?"
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這該死的車什麼時候才來？
08:38
Here's a beautiful example of a psychological solution deployed in Korea.
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韓國也有個很棒的心理學解決方案
08:41
Red traffic lights have a countdown delay.
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紅燈時有倒數計時
08:44
It's proven to reduce the accident rate in experiments.
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這在實驗中被證實能夠降低事故發生率
08:47
Why? Because road rage, impatience and general irritation
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為什麼？因為交通上的憤怒、不耐和焦躁
08:50
are massively reduced when you can actually see the time you have to wait.
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在你能清楚看到剩下的等待時間時
被大大降低
被大大降低
08:55
In China, not really understanding the principle behind this,
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在中國，不知為何
08:58
they applied the same principle to green traffic lights.
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他們在綠燈的時候運用同樣方法
09:01
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:04
Which isn't a great idea.
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這可不是個好主意
09:07
You're 200 yards away, you realize you've got five seconds to go, you floor it.
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你離路口還有200碼遠
看到綠燈還剩5秒，就直接衝過去
看到綠燈還剩5秒，就直接衝過去
09:11
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
09:13
The Koreans, very assiduously, did test both.
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韓國人很嚴謹的測試了兩種情況
09:17
The accident rate goes down when you apply this to red traffic lights;
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給紅燈倒計時，事故率降低
09:20
it goes up when you apply it to green traffic lights.
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而給綠燈倒計時，事故率則上升
09:23
This is all I'm asking for really in human decision making,
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我呼籲人們在做決策時
09:26
is the consideration of these three things.
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考慮這三個方面
（投影：技術、心理、經濟）
（投影：技術、心理、經濟）
09:28
I'm not asking for the complete primacy of one over the other.
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它們的重要性不分先後
09:31
I'm merely saying that when you solve problems,
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我只是希望當你解決問題時
09:33
you should look at all three of these equally
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同等重要地考慮以下這三個要素
09:35
and you should seek as far as possible
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你應盡可能地
09:38
to find solutions which sit in the sweet spot in the middle.
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去找尋匯聚三者的完美解決方案
09:41
If you actually look at a great business,
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如果你實際去評估一家好公司
09:43
you'll nearly always see all of these three things coming into play.
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你幾乎都會看到這三個方面的作為
09:46
Really, really successful businesses --
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貨真價實的成功企業
09:49
Google is great, great technological success,
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Google是成功的科技公司
09:51
but it's also based on a very good psychological insight:
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但它同時反映出非常好的心理學洞見
09:54
People believe something that only does one thing
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人們相信專注於一種業務的公司
09:58
is better at that thing than something that does that thing and something else.
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在此種業務上要比多樣化的公司做得更出色
10:02
It's an innate thing called goal dilution.
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這種固有的信念叫做目標稀釋
10:05
Ayelet Fishbach has written a paper about this.
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阿耶萊-費斯巴赫寫了一篇關於這件事的論文
10:07
Everybody else at the time of Google, more or less,
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Google出現時的其他同業公司
10:10
was trying to be a portal.
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都在努力成為入口網站
10:11
Yes, there's a search function,
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的確，他們有搜索功能
10:12
but you also have weather, sports scores, bits of news.
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但也有天氣預報、體育賽事比分、一點新聞報導
10:16
Google understood that if you're just a search engine,
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Google明白如果你僅僅是一個搜尋引擎
10:19
people assume you're a very, very good search engine.
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人們會假定你是非常好的搜尋引擎
10:22
All of you know this actually
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你們所有人
10:24
from when you go in to buy a television.
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在買電視的時候都深刻體會到這點
10:26
And in the shabbier end of the row of flat screen TVs
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在那排平板電視最後的破爛角落裡
10:29
you can see are these rather despised things called combined TV and DVD players.
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有一種備受冷落的機器叫電視與DVD組合播放機
10:34
And we have no knowledge whatsoever of the quality of those things,
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你對這種東西的品質一無所知
10:37
but we look at a combined TV and DVD player and we go, "Uck.
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但我們眼看這電視與DVD播放器的組合
就會觀感很差
就會觀感很差
10:41
It's probably a bit of a crap telly and a bit rubbish as a DVD player."
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覺得這可能是爛電視和爛DVD播放機的組合吧
10:46
So we walk out of the shops with one of each.
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所以我們走出商店時會分別買這兩種機器
10:48
Google is as much a psychological success as it is a technological one.
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Google在心理學方面的成功和
技術上的成功同樣重要
技術上的成功同樣重要
10:53
I propose that we can use psychology to solve problems
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我提議我們可以用心理學來解決
10:56
that we didn't even realize were problems at all.
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那些我們甚至不認為是問題的問題
10:59
This is my suggestion for getting people to finish their course of antibiotics.
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我有個幫助人們完成抗生素療程的建議
11:02
Don't give them 24 white pills.
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不要給他們24顆白色藥片
11:05
Give them 18 white pills and six blue ones
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給他們18顆白色藥片和6顆藍色藥片
11:07
and tell them to take the white pills first and then take the blue ones.
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告訴他們先吃白的，再吃藍的
11:11
It's called chunking.
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這叫做組塊化
11:13
The likelihood that people will get to the end is much greater
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人們堅持到最後的可能性大大增加
11:16
when there is a milestone somewhere in the middle.
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因為中途有個里程碑
11:19
One of the great mistakes, I think, of economics
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我想經濟學一個顯著的錯誤
11:22
is it fails to understand that what something is,
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就是沒有認知到某個事項
11:24
whether it's retirement, unemployment, cost,
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無論是退休、失業，還是花費
11:28
is a function, not only of its amount, but also its meaning.
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都不僅是作用或是數據
更具有心理意義
更具有心理意義
11:33
This is a toll crossing in Britain.
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在英國有個收費站
11:36
Quite often queues happen at the tolls.
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通常在收費站都要排隊
11:39
Sometimes you get very, very severe queues.
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有時候甚至大排長龍
11:41
You could apply the same principle actually, if you like,
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如果你願意，可以採取
11:43
to the security lanes in airports.
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與機場安檢同樣的方法
11:45
What would happen if you could actually pay twice as much money to cross the bridge,
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要是你要繳納兩倍的過橋費才能快速通過
11:49
but go through a lane that's an express lane?
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那會發生什麼情況？
11:51
It's not an unreasonable thing to do. It's an economically efficient thing to do.
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這可不是無理要求
而是一個經濟上高效率的做法
而是一個經濟上高效率的做法
11:55
Time means more to some people than others.
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時間的價值對某些人比其他人更高
11:57
If you're waiting trying to get to a job interview,
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2300
如果你要去參加求職面試
12:00
you'd patently pay a couple of pounds more to go through the fast lane.
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你顯然願意花多幾英鎊走快速通道
12:04
If you're on the way to visit your mother in-law,
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2971
如果你是要去見岳母
12:07
you'd probably prefer to stay on the left.
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你可能更願意走普通車道
12:11
The only problem is if you introduce this economically efficient solution,
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實施這項經濟高效措施的唯一麻煩就是
12:15
people hate it.
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人們厭惡它
12:17
Because they think you're deliberately creating delays at the bridge
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他們會以為你將故意製造橋上的擁堵
12:20
in order to maximize your revenue,
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來增加收入
12:21
and "Why on earth should I pay to subsidize your imcompetence?"
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他們會想“為什麼我要掏錢為你的無能買單？”
12:25
On the other hand, change the frame slightly
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然而，若稍稍改變做法
12:27
and create charitable yield management,
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增加所得的慈善管理
12:30
so the extra money you get goes not to the bridge company, it goes to charity,
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不讓增收的錢款歸入路橋公司
而作慈善用途
而作慈善用途
12:35
and the mental willingness to pay completely changes.
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人們的付款意願將會截然不同
12:38
You have a relatively economically efficient solution,
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你擁有了一個經濟上相對高效的解決方案
12:42
but one that actually meets with public approval
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同時也會被公眾接納
12:44
and even a small degree of affection,
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2189
甚至還受到一點點的喜愛
12:46
rather than being seen as bastardy.
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而不是被視為卑鄙無恥
12:49
So where economists make the fundamental mistake
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所以，經濟學家基本上的錯誤在於
12:52
is they think that money is money.
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他們認為錢就是錢
12:55
Actually my pain experienced in paying five pounds
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實際上我付5英鎊時的痛苦
13:00
is not just proportionate to the amount,
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與金額大小沒有直接關係
13:02
but where I think that money is going.
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而是在我所認定之錢的用途
13:04
And I think understanding that could revolutionize tax policy.
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我相信理解這點將會對稅收政策帶來革命
13:07
It could revolutionize the public services.
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它會對公共服務帶來革命
13:10
It could really change things quite significantly.
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它將會顯著的改變現狀
13:12
Here's a guy you all need to study.
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你們需要這個人研究一下
（投影：路德維希‧馮‧米塞斯是我的英雄）
（投影：路德維希‧馮‧米塞斯是我的英雄）
13:15
He's an Austrian school economist
255
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1904
他是奧地利學派的一位經濟學家
13:16
who was first active in the first half of the 20th century in Vienna.
256
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5211
20世紀上半葉在維也納嶄露頭角
13:22
What was interesting about the Austrian school
257
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1845
奧地利學派的特點在於
13:24
is they actually grew up alongside Freud.
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它是與佛洛伊德共同成長的
13:27
And so they're predominantly interested in psychology.
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所以他們十分仰賴心理學
13:29
They believed that there was a discipline called praxeology,
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他們認為有行為學這門學說
13:34
which is a prior discipline to the study of economics.
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要高於經濟學
13:36
Praxeology is the study of human choice, action and decision making.
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行為學研究人類如何選擇、行動和決策
13:41
I think they're right.
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我認為他們是對的
13:43
I think the danger we have in today's world
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2084
現今世界的危險在於
13:45
is we have the study of economics
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1869
我們現有的經濟學
13:47
considers itself to be a prior discipline to the study of human psychology.
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認為自身比人類心理學更重要
13:51
But as Charlie Munger says, "If economics isn't behavioral,
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但正如查理‧孟格所言：“如果經濟不具備行為學的特質
13:54
I don't know what the hell is."
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2245
我則不知道它是什麼東西。”
13:56
Von Mises, interestingly, believes economics is just a subset of psychology.
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有意思的是，馮‧米塞斯認為
經濟學只是心理學的分支
經濟學只是心理學的分支
14:03
I think he just refers to economics as
270
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1824
他認為經濟學只是
14:05
"the study of human praxeology under conditions of scarcity."
271
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“在稀有條件下的人類行為學研究”
14:08
But von Mises, among many other things,
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馮‧米塞斯在諸多貢獻中
14:11
I think uses an analogy which is probably the best justification and explanation
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5968
最重要的是他運用了最佳的類比來說明
14:17
for the value of marketing, the value of perceived value
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3180
行銷的價值和感知價值
14:20
and the fact that we should actually treat it as being absolutely equivalent
275
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4089
事實上我們應絕對平等的對待感知價值
14:24
to any other kind of value.
276
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1623
一如其他種類的價值
14:26
We tend to, all of us -- even those of us who work in marketing --
277
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2534
我們所有人，甚至是從事行銷的人
14:28
to think of value in two ways.
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1516
都傾向於把價值分為兩種
14:30
There's the real value,
279
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1152
一種是真實價值
14:31
which is when you make something in a factory and provide a service,
280
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1860
就是在工廠製造商品或提供服務
14:33
and then there's a kind of dubious value,
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2163
另一種是不確定的價值
14:35
which you create by changing the way people look at things.
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2521
來自於改變人們對事物的觀感
14:38
Von Mises completely rejected this distinction.
283
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2946
馮‧米塞斯完全反對這種分野
14:41
And he used this following analogy.
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1716
他用的是以下的類比
14:42
He referred actually to strange economists called the French Physiocrats,
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5215
他提到一個叫做法國重農主義的古怪經濟學派
14:48
who believed that the only true value was what you extracted from the land.
286
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4327
他們相信只有土地的產出物才有真正的價值
14:52
So if you're a shepherd or a quarryman or a farmer,
287
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2596
所以如果你是牧羊人、礦工或農民
14:54
you created true value.
288
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1765
你才創造真正的價值
14:56
If however, you bought some wool from the shepherd
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2468
但如果有人從牧羊人手中買下羊毛
14:59
and charged a premium for converting it into a hat,
290
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3139
做成帽子，賺取更高利潤
15:02
you weren't actually creating value,
291
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2334
就不是創造價值
15:04
you were exploiting the shepherd.
292
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1967
而是在剝削牧羊人
15:06
Now von Mises said that modern economists make exactly the same mistake
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3866
馮‧米塞斯提出現代經濟學（與重農主義者）
15:10
with regard to advertising and marketing.
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2152
在對待廣告和行銷上犯了一模一樣的錯誤
15:12
He says, if you run a restaurant,
295
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2390
他說，如果你經營一家餐館
15:15
there is no healthy distinction to be made
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2208
你沒辦法去嚴格區分
15:17
between the value you create by cooking the food
297
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2458
烹飪食物所創造的價值
15:19
and the value you create by sweeping the floor.
298
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2167
和打掃地板的價值
15:21
One of them creates, perhaps, the primary product --
299
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3212
前一項創造了主要產品
15:25
the thing we think we're paying for --
300
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1469
消費者認為花錢購買的是菜肴
15:26
the other one creates a context
301
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1654
另一項則創造了環境
15:28
within which we can enjoy and appreciate that product.
302
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3317
消費者在這個環境中享用產品
15:31
And the idea that one of them should actually have priority over the other
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3015
若認為一項比另一項更重要
15:34
is fundamentally wrong.
304
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2166
是個根本性的錯誤
15:36
Try this quick thought experiment.
305
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1260
讓我們來做個快速的思維實驗
15:37
Imagine a restaurant that serves Michelin-starred food,
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2607
想像一家餐廳
提供米其林星級水準的食物
提供米其林星級水準的食物
15:40
but actually where the restaurant smells of sewage
307
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2658
但餐廳裡惡臭彌漫
15:43
and there's human feces on the floor.
308
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4076
地板上屎尿橫流
15:47
The best thing you can do there to create value
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2300
你在這家餐廳創造價值的最好方法
15:49
is not actually to improve the food still further,
310
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3191
不是去更進一步提升菜餚品質
15:52
it's to get rid of the smell and clean up the floor.
311
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3994
而是去除異味，清潔地板
15:56
And it's vital we understand this.
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3179
理解這點至關重要
15:59
If that seems like some strange, abstruse thing,
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如果這看起來古怪、荒謬
16:02
in the U.K., the post office had a 98 percent success rate
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英國郵政有98%的成功投遞率
16:06
at delivering first-class mail the next day.
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讓平信隔天送達
16:09
They decided this wasn't good enough
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他們認為這還不夠好
16:11
and they wanted to get it up to 99.
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想要把結果提升到99%
16:13
The effort to do that almost broke the organization.
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為了做這樣的事差點毀了整個組織
16:17
If at the same time you'd gone and asked people,
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如果你同時去問民眾
16:20
"What percentage of first-class mail arrives the next day?"
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“平信隔天寄到的比率有多少？”
16:24
the average answer, or the modal answer would have been 50 to 60 percent.
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一般典型的回答是50%-60%
16:28
Now if your perception is much worse than your reality,
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如果公眾感知遠遠低於實際情況
16:31
what on earth are you doing trying to change the reality?
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你為什麼還要去改變實際情況？
16:34
That's like trying to improve the food in a restaurant that stinks.
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這就像試著在臭餐廳裡提升食物品質
16:38
What you need to do
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你需要做的
16:40
is first of all tell people
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首先是去告訴民眾
16:42
that 98 percent of mail gets there the next day, first-class mail.
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平信隔天到達的比率已達到98%
16:46
That's pretty good.
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這已經很不錯了
16:48
I would argue, in Britain there's a much better frame of reference,
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不過我認為
在英國還有更好用的說法
在英國還有更好用的說法
16:51
which is to tell people
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就是告訴民眾
16:52
that more first-class mail arrives the next day
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英國平信的隔日送達率
16:54
in the U.K. than in Germany.
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超過德國
16:56
Because generally in Britain if you want to make us happy about something,
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因為一般來說
你如果想要英國人高興
你如果想要英國人高興
16:59
just tell us we do it better than the Germans.
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就告訴他們我們做得比德國好
17:01
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
17:03
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
17:05
Choose your frame of reference and the perceived value
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選則你的說法和感知價值
17:10
and therefore the actual value is completely tranformed.
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事物的真實價值就會完全改變
17:13
It has to be said of the Germans
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我們得承認德國人
17:15
that the Germans and the French are doing a brilliant job
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與法國人一起讓歐洲團結
17:17
of creating a united Europe.
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非常了不起
17:19
The only thing they don't expect is they're uniting Europe
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他們唯一沒有料到的是
這個團結的歐洲
這個團結的歐洲
17:21
through a shared mild hatred of the French and Germans.
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都對法國人和德國人有些輕微憎恨
17:24
But I'm British, that's the way we like it.
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但我是英國人
我喜歡這樣的結果
我喜歡這樣的結果
17:27
What you also notice is that in any case our perception is leaky.
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你也要注意我們的感知是有漏洞的
17:32
We can't tell the difference between the quality of the food
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我們無法區分食物品質
17:35
and the environment in which we consume it.
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和相應的就餐環境
17:37
All of you will have seen this phenomenon
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你們應該都觀察到一個現象
17:39
if you have your car washed or valeted.
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只要洗過車或讓人泊過車
17:41
When you drive away, your car feels as if it drives better.
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當你開走時，會感覺車子更好開了
17:45
And the reason for this,
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而這個原因
17:47
unless my car valet mysteriously is changing the oil
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除非是洗車員偷偷地更換了機油
17:50
and performing work which I'm not paying him for and I'm unaware of,
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或者在我不知情的前提下免費為我的車做了什麼
17:53
is because perception is in any case leaky.
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是因為感知總是有漏洞的
17:55
Analgesics that are branded are more effective at reducing pain
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有品牌的止痛藥的止痛效果
17:59
than analgesics that are not branded.
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比沒品牌的要好
18:02
I don't just mean through reported pain reduction,
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我的論據並不是患者自己說疼痛減輕
18:04
actual measured pain reduction.
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而是實際測量的疼痛減輕
18:06
And so perception actually is leaky in any case.
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所以說，感知總是有漏洞的
18:10
So if you do something that's perceptually bad in one respect,
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如果你做了一件事
從某一方面會被感知是壞事
從某一方面會被感知是壞事
18:14
you can damage the other.
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另方面也會受到損害
18:16
Thank you very much.
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非常感謝
18:17
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Rory Sutherland - Advertising guruRory Sutherland stands at the center of an advertising revolution in brand identities, designing cutting-edge, interactive campaigns that blur the line between ad and entertainment.
Why you should listen
From unlikely beginnings as a classics teacher to his current job as Vice Chairman of Ogilvy Group, Rory Sutherland has created his own brand of the Cinderella story. He joined Ogilvy & Mather's planning department in 1988, and became a junior copywriter, working on Microsoft's account in its pre-Windows days. An early fan of the Internet, he was among the first in the traditional ad world to see the potential in these relatively unknown technologies.
An immediate understanding of the possibilities of digital technology and the Internet powered Sutherland's meteoric rise. He continues to provide insight into advertising in the age of the Internet and social media through his blog at Campaign's Brand Republic site, his column "The Wiki Man" at The Spectator and his busy Twitter account.
Rory Sutherland | Speaker | TED.com