TEDxHelvetia
Jonas Eliasson: How to solve traffic jams
Jonas Eliason (Jonas Eliasson): Kako rešiti saobraćajne gužve?
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To je žalosna stvarnost u skoro svakom većem gradu - zagušenje puteva, naročito u špicu. Jonas Eliason nam otkriva kako blagi podsticaj malog broja vozača da se klone glavnih puteva može zauvek sprečiti saobraćajne gužve. (Snimano na TEDxHelvetia.)
Jonas Eliasson - Transportation specialist
Jonas Eliasson is dedicated to researching transportation flow, analyzing how people think about their commutes and what can influence their travel decisions. Full bio
Jonas Eliasson is dedicated to researching transportation flow, analyzing how people think about their commutes and what can influence their travel decisions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:17
Hi. I'm here to talk about congestion,
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Zdravo. Došao sam da pričam o zagušenju,
00:20
namely road congestion.
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zagušenju puteva.
00:21
Road congestion is a pervasive phenomenon.
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Zagušenje puteva je sveprisutan fenomen.
00:24
It exists in basically all of the cities all around the world,
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Postoji u svim gradovima širom sveta,
00:27
which is a little bit surprising when you think about it.
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što je pomalo čudno,
ako razmislite o tome.
ako razmislite o tome.
00:28
I mean, think about how different cities are, actually.
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Razmislite samo koliko su
gradovi zapravo različiti.
gradovi zapravo različiti.
00:31
I mean, you have the typical European cities,
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Tu su tipični evropski gradovi,
00:33
with a dense urban core, good public transportation
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sa gustim urbanim jezgrom,
solidnim javnim prevozom
solidnim javnim prevozom
00:36
mostly, not a lot of road capacity.
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i malim kapacitetom puteva.
00:39
But then, on the other hand, you have the American cities.
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S druge strane imamo američke gradove.
00:41
It's moving by itself, okay.
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Ovo ide samo od sebe.
00:44
Anyway, the American cities:
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Dakle, američki gradovi:
00:47
lots of roads dispersed over large areas,
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dosta puteva rasprostranjenih
po velikim područjima,
po velikim područjima,
00:50
almost no public transportation.
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skoro nepostojeći javni prevoz.
00:51
And then you have the emerging world cities,
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A onda imamo mlade metropole,
00:53
with a mixed variety of vehicles,
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sa raznim vozilima,
00:55
mixed land-use patterns, also rather dispersed
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različitim šemama puteva,
kao i rasutim,
kao i rasutim,
00:58
but often with a very dense urban core.
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ali često i veoma gustim urbanim jezgrom.
01:00
And traffic planners all around the world have tried
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Saobraćajni planeri širom sveta su isprobavali
01:03
lots of different measures: dense cities or dispersed cities,
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različite mere: gusto ili rasuto
raspoređene gradove,
raspoređene gradove,
01:06
lots of roads or lots of public transport
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mnogo puteva ili dosta javnog prevoza
01:09
or lots of bike lanes or more information,
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ili dosta biciklističkih staza ili više informacija
01:12
or lots of different things, but nothing seems to work.
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ili više različitih stvari, ali ništa
od toga nije bilo odgovarajuće.
od toga nije bilo odgovarajuće.
01:15
But all of these attempts have one thing in common.
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Ali svi ovi pokušaji
su imali nešto zajedničko.
su imali nešto zajedničko.
01:18
They're basically attempts at figuring out
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Svi su u suštini pokušavali da otkriju
01:21
what people should do instead of rush hour car driving.
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šta bi ljudi trebalo da rade
umesto da voze u vreme špica.
umesto da voze u vreme špica.
01:24
They're essentially, to a point, attempts at planning
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To su, zapravo, pokušaji planiranja
01:27
what other people should do, planning their life for them.
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onoga što bi ljudi trebalo da rade,
planiranja njihovih života.
planiranja njihovih života.
01:30
Now, planning a complex social system
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Planiranje složenog društvenog sistema
01:33
is a very hard thing to do, and let me tell you a story.
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je veoma teško i dozvolite
da vam ispričam nešto.
da vam ispričam nešto.
01:36
Back in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell,
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Negde 1989., kada je pao Berlinski zid,
01:39
an urban planner in London got a phone call
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jedan urbani planer iz Londona
je dobio telefonski poziv.
je dobio telefonski poziv.
01:41
from a colleague in Moscow saying, basically,
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od kolege iz Moskve koji je rekao:
01:44
"Hi, this is Vladimir. I'd like to know,
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"Ćao, ovde Vladimir. Zanima me
01:46
who's in charge of London's bread supply?"
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ko je zadužen za snabdevanje
hlebom u Londonu?"
hlebom u Londonu?"
01:49
And the urban planner in London goes,
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A urbani planer ga pita:
01:51
"What do you mean, who's in charge of London's —
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"Kako to misliš, ko je zadužen -
01:53
I mean, no one is in charge."
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Mislim, niko nije zadužen."
01:54
"Oh, but surely someone must be in charge.
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"Ma sigurno je neko zadužen.
01:56
I mean, it's a very complicated system. Someone must control all of this."
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To je veoma komplikovan sistem.
Neko mora da ga kontroliše."
Neko mora da ga kontroliše."
02:00
"No. No. No one is in charge.
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"Ne. Ne. Niko nije zadužen.
02:03
I mean, it basically -- I haven't really thought of it.
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Zapravo, nikada nisam ni mislio o tome.
02:05
It basically organizes itself."
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Sistem se praktično sam organizuje."
02:08
It organizes itself.
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Sam se organizuje.
02:11
That's an example of a complex social system
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Ovo je primer složenog društvenog sistema
02:13
which has the ability of self-organizing,
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koji ima sposobnost samostalne organizacije
02:16
and this is a very deep insight.
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i ovo nam pruža značajan uvid.
02:19
When you try to solve really complex social problems,
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Kada pokušavate da rešite
veoma složene društvene probleme,
veoma složene društvene probleme,
02:22
the right thing to do is most of the time
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najčešće je najbolje da
02:24
to create the incentives.
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stvorite podsticaj.
02:25
You don't plan the details,
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Nemojte planirati detalje
02:27
and people will figure out what to do,
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i ljudi će shvatiti šta treba da rade,
02:30
how to adapt to this new framework.
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kako da se prilagode novom sistemu.
02:32
And let's now look at how we can use this insight
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Pogledajmo kako možemo koristiti ovaj uvid
02:35
to combat road congestion.
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u borbi protiv saobraćajnih zagušenja.
02:37
This is a map of Stockholm, my hometown.
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Ovo je mapa Stokholma,
mog rodnog grada.
mog rodnog grada.
02:39
Now, Stockholm is a medium-sized city, roughly two million people,
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Stokholm je grad srednje veličine
sa oko dva miliona stanovnika,
sa oko dva miliona stanovnika,
02:43
but Stockholm also has lots of water and lots of water
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ali Stokholm ima dosta vodenih
površina, a to znači
površina, a to znači
02:46
means lots of bridges -- narrow bridges, old bridges --
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mnogo mostova -
uskih mostova, starih mostova,
uskih mostova, starih mostova,
02:49
which means lots of road congestion.
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što podrazumeva veliko zagušenje puteva.
02:52
And these red dots show the most congested parts,
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Ove crvene tačke predstavljaju
najzagušenije delove,
najzagušenije delove,
02:56
which are the bridges that lead into the inner city.
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a to su putevi koji vode ka centru grada.
02:58
And then someone came up with the idea that,
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A onda se neko setio da,
03:01
apart from good public transport,
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osim dobrog javnog prevoza,
03:02
apart from spending money on roads,
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osim novca uloženog u puteve,
03:05
let's try to charge drivers one or two euros at these bottlenecks.
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pokuša da vozačima naplati evro ili dva
na ovim uskim grlima.
na ovim uskim grlima.
03:09
Now, one or two euros, that isn't really a lot of money,
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Jedan ili dva evra nije mnogo novca.
03:12
I mean compared to parking charges and running costs, etc.,
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U poređenju sa cenama parkinga
i tekućim troškovima i slično,
i tekućim troškovima i slično,
03:15
so you would probably expect that car drivers
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ne biste očekivali da će vozači
03:18
wouldn't really react to this fairly small charge.
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uopšte reagovati na ovako malu taksu.
03:20
You would be wrong.
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Ne biste bili u pravu.
03:21
One or two euros was enough to make 20 percent of cars
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Jedan ili dva evra je bilo dovoljno
da 20 procenata
da 20 procenata
03:25
disappear from rush hours.
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automobila nestane iz špica.
03:28
Now, 20 percent, well, that's a fairly huge figure, you might think,
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Možda vam se čini da je 20% velika cifra,
03:31
but you've still got 80 percent left of the problem, right?
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ali i dalje vam preostaje 80% problema,
zar ne?
zar ne?
03:34
Because you still have 80 percent of the traffic.
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Pošto vam preostaje ostalih 80% saobraćaja.
03:35
Now, that's also wrong, because traffic happens to be
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To je takođe pogrešno jer je saobraćaj
03:39
a nonlinear phenomenon, meaning that
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nelinearna pojava, što znači da
03:41
once you reach above a certain capacity threshold
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kada se jednom dostigne
određeni prag kapaciteta
određeni prag kapaciteta
03:44
then congestion starts to increase really, really rapidly.
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zagušenje počinje ubrzano da se pogoršava.
03:48
But fortunately, it also works the other way around.
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Srećom, ovo funkcioniše i s druge strane.
03:50
If you can reduce traffic even somewhat, then congestion
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Ako ikako možete da smanjite saobraćaj,
onda će se zagušenje
onda će se zagušenje
03:53
will go down much faster than you might think.
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smanjiti mnogo brže no što očekujete.
03:57
Now, congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm
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Naplata na mestima zagušenja
u Stokholmu je uvedena
u Stokholmu je uvedena
04:00
on January 3, 2006, and the first picture here is a picture
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3. januara 2006. i prva slika ovde je slika
04:05
of Stockholm, one of the typical streets, January 2.
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jedne od tipičnih stokholmskih ulica, 2. januara.
04:09
The first day with the congestion charges looked like this.
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Prvi dan nakon uvođenja naplate
je izgledao ovako.
je izgledao ovako.
04:12
This is what happens when you take away
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Ovako izgleda kada uklonite
04:15
20 percent of the cars from the streets.
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20 odsto automobila sa ulica.
04:17
You really reduce congestion quite substantially.
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Zagušenje se značajno smanji.
04:20
But, well, as I said, I mean, car drivers adapt, right?
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Ali, kao što sam rekao,
vozači se prilagođavaju, zar ne?
vozači se prilagođavaju, zar ne?
04:24
So after a while they would all come back because they
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Tako da se ubrzo svi vrate jer se
04:26
have sort of gotten used to charges.
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nekako naviknu na naplatu.
04:28
Wrong again. It's now six and a half years ago
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Opet pogrešno!
Prošlo je šest i po godina
Prošlo je šest i po godina
04:32
since the congestion charges were introduced in Stockholm,
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od uvođenja naplate
za zagušenje u Stokholmu,
za zagušenje u Stokholmu,
04:34
and we basically have the same low traffic levels still.
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a još uvek imamo
isti nizak nivo saobraćaja.
isti nizak nivo saobraćaja.
04:38
But you see, there's an interesting gap here in the time series
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Ali vidite, imamo zanimljivu prazninu
u vremenskoj seriji
u vremenskoj seriji
04:40
in 2007.
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u 2007.
04:42
Well, the thing is that, the congestion charges,
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Stvar je u tome što su naplate za zagušenje
04:44
they were introduced first as a trial, so they were introduced
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najpre bile probne, tako da su uvedene
04:47
in January and then abolished again at the end of July,
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u januaru, a onda ukinute krajem jula,
04:51
followed by a referendum, and then they were reintroduced
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nakon čega je bio referendum,
pa su ponovo uvedene
pa su ponovo uvedene
04:54
again in 2007, which of course was a wonderful scientific opportunity.
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u 2007. i to je stvorilo zlatnu priliku za naučnike.
04:58
I mean, this was a really fun experiment to start with,
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Ovo je ispočetka bio zabavan eksperiment
05:02
and we actually got to do it twice.
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i na kraju smo ga i ponovili.
05:04
And personally, I would like to do this every once a year or so,
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Lično bih voleo da ga ponavljam
barem jednom godišnje,
barem jednom godišnje,
05:06
but they won't let me do that.
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ali neće da mi daju.
05:07
But it was fun anyway.
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Ali je svejedno bilo zabavno.
05:09
So, we followed up. What happened?
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Tako smo to ispratili.
Šta se desilo?
Šta se desilo?
05:13
This is the last day with the congestion charges, July 31,
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Ovo je poslednji dan
naplate zagušenja - 31. juli
naplate zagušenja - 31. juli
05:17
and you see the same street but now it's summer,
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i ovo su iste ulice samo tokom leta,
05:19
and summer in Stockholm is a very nice
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a leto u Stokholmu je jako lepo
05:20
and light time of the year,
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i svetlo doba godine
05:23
and the first day without the congestion charges
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i prvi dan bez naplate zagušenja
05:25
looked like this.
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je izgledao ovako.
05:27
All the cars were back again, and you even have to admire
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Sva kola su se ponovo vratila
i prosto morate da se
i prosto morate da se
05:29
the car drivers. They adapt so extremely quickly.
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divite vozačima.
Tako su se brzo prilagodili.
Tako su se brzo prilagodili.
05:32
The first day they all came back.
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Već prvog dana su se svi vratili.
05:35
And this effect hanged on. So 2007 figures looked like this.
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I ovaj efekat se zadržao.
Tako da su brojke 2007. izgledale ovako.
Tako da su brojke 2007. izgledale ovako.
05:40
Now these traffic figures are really exciting
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Ove brojke su vrlo uzbudljive,
05:42
and a little bit surprising and very useful to know,
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pomalo iznenađujuće i korisne,
05:45
but I would say that the most surprising slide here
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ali čini se da najzanimljiviji slajd
05:48
I'm going to show you today is not this one. It's this one.
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koji ću danas pokazati nije ovaj.
Već ovaj.
Već ovaj.
05:52
This shows public support for congestion pricing of Stockholm,
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Ovo pokazuje podršku javnosti
naplati zagušenja u Stokholmu
naplati zagušenja u Stokholmu
05:55
and you see that when congestion pricing were introduced
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i možete videti da su ljudi
nakon uvođenja naplate
nakon uvođenja naplate
05:58
in the beginning of Spring 2006, people were fiercely against it.
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početkom proleća 2006. bili izrazito protiv.
06:02
Seventy percent of the population didn't want this.
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Sedamdeset odsto stanovništva je bilo protiv.
06:05
But what happened when the congestion charges
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Ali se nije desilo ono što biste očekivali nakon
06:07
were there is not what you would expect, that people hated it more and more.
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uvođenja naplate - da će ljudi to sve više mrzeti.
06:10
No, on the contrary, they changed, up to a point
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Ne, sasvim suprotno, sada je
06:13
where we now have 70 percent support for keeping the charges,
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70 odsto stanovnika podržavalo naplatu,
06:17
meaning that -- I mean, let me repeat that:
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što znači - dozvolite da ponovim to:
06:19
70 percent of the population in Stockholm
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70 odsto građana Stokholma
06:22
want to keep a price for something that used to be free.
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je želelo da zadrži plaćanje
za nešto što je bilo besplatno.
za nešto što je bilo besplatno.
06:26
Okay. So why can that be? Why is that?
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U redu. Ali kako to? Zašto to?
06:29
Well, think about it this way. Who changed?
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Razmislite o tome ovako.
Ko se promenio?
Ko se promenio?
06:32
I mean, the 20 percent of the car drivers that disappeared,
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Dvadeset odsto nestalih vozača
06:35
surely they must be discontent in a way.
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mora biti nezadovoljno na neki način.
06:37
And where did they go? If we can understand this,
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Gde su oni nestali?
Ako to shvatimo,
Ako to shvatimo,
06:39
then maybe we can figure out how people can be so happy with this.
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onda bismo mogli da otkrijemo
zašto ljudima ovo ne smeta.
zašto ljudima ovo ne smeta.
06:43
Well, so we did this huge interview survey
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Zbog toga smo uradili veliku anketu
06:46
with lots of travel services, and tried to figure out
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sa dosta putnih službi i pokušali da otkrijemo
06:48
who changed, and where did they go?
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ko se promenio i gde su oni nestali?
06:49
And it turned out that they don't know themselves. (Laughter)
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I ispostavilo se da ni oni nisu znali.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
06:54
For some reason, the car drivers are --
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Vozači su nekako sigurni u to
06:59
they are confident they actually drive the same way that they used to do.
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da voze isto koliko i ranije.
07:02
And why is that? It's because that travel patterns
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A zašto? Zato što su putne putanje
07:04
are much less stable than you might think.
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mnogo nestabilnije nego što biste mislili.
07:07
Each day, people make new decisions, and people change
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Ljudi svakoga dana donose
nove odluke i ljudi se menjaju
nove odluke i ljudi se menjaju
07:10
and the world changes around them, and each day
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i svet se menja oko njih i svakog dana
07:12
all of these decisions are sort of nudged ever so slightly
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te odluke se polako kreću dalje
07:15
away from rush hour car driving
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od vožnje kola u špicu
07:17
in a way that people don't even notice.
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tako da ljudi i ne primete.
07:20
They're not even aware of this themselves.
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Ni sami nisu svesni toga.
07:22
And the other question, who changed their mind?
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A drugo pitanje je -
ko im je promenio mišljenje?
ko im je promenio mišljenje?
07:25
Who changed their opinion, and why?
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Ko im je promenio mišljenje i zašto?
07:27
So we did another interview survey, tried to figure out
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Tako da smo uradili još jednu anketu,
u pokušaju da otkrijemo
u pokušaju da otkrijemo
07:29
why people changed their mind, and what type of group changed their minds?
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zašto su ljudi promenili mišljenje
i koja grupa je to učinila?
i koja grupa je to učinila?
07:33
And after analyzing the answers, it turned out that
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Nakon analize odgovora, ispostavilo se da
07:36
more than half of them believe that they haven't changed their minds.
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više od polovine veruje
da nisu ni promenili mišljenje.
da nisu ni promenili mišljenje.
07:40
They're actually confident that they have
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Oni veruju da im se od početka
07:43
liked congestion pricing all along.
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dopadala naplata zagušenja.
07:45
Which means that we are now in a position
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Što znači da sada imamo
07:47
where we have reduced traffic across this toll cordon
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smanjen saobraćaj na ovom delu puta za 20%
07:50
with 20 percent, and reduced congestion by enormous numbers,
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i uveliko smanjeno zagušenje,
07:53
and people aren't even aware that they have changed,
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a ljudi nisu svesni da su se promenili
07:57
and they honestly believe that they have liked this all along.
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i stvarno veruju da im se to
dopadalo od početka.
dopadalo od početka.
08:01
This is the power of nudges when trying to solve
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To je snaga sitnih podsticaja
kada pokušavate da rešite
kada pokušavate da rešite
08:04
complex social problems, and when you do that,
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složene društvene probleme,
a kada to učinite,
a kada to učinite,
08:07
you shouldn't try to tell people how to adapt.
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ne treba da govorite ljudima
kako da se prilagode.
kako da se prilagode.
08:10
You should just nudge them in the right direction.
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Samo treba da ih gurnete u pravom smeru.
08:13
And if you do it right,
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Ako to dobro uradite,
08:14
people will actually embrace the change,
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ljudi će prihvatiti promenu
08:16
and if you do it right, people will actually even like it.
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i ako to dobro uradite,
ljudi će tu promenu i voleti.
ljudi će tu promenu i voleti.
08:19
Thank you. (Applause)
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Hvala vam.
(Aplauz)
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Jonas Eliasson - Transportation specialistJonas Eliasson is dedicated to researching transportation flow, analyzing how people think about their commutes and what can influence their travel decisions.
Why you should listen
Jonas Eliasson studies how small charges on crowded bridges effect traffic, what makes a person opt to bike to work and how far people choose to live from public transportation. The Director of the Centre for Transport Studies at Sweden’s Royal Institute of Technology (KTH), Eliasson helped design, plan and evaluate Stockholm’s congestion tax, which was piloted in 2006 and made permanent in 2007. Eliasson is frequently brought on by other cities that are considering similar fees for rush hour use of crowded roads.
Eliasson has modeled and appraised several major infrastructure investments in Sweden, and chairs the committee for transport modeling of the country’s National Transport Investment Plan.
Jonas Eliasson | Speaker | TED.com