TEDSalon NY2013
Amy Webb: How I hacked online dating
Ejmi Veb (Amy Webb): Kako sam provalila onlajn sastanke
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Ejmi Veb nije imala sreće sa sastancima preko interneta. One osobe koje su joj se dopadale nisu joj uzvraćale, a njen profil privlačio je zrikavce (ili još gore od toga). I kako bi svaki ljubitelj podataka uradio, počela je da pravi tabelu. Poslušajte kako je provalila svoj onlajn život - sa frustrirajućim, zabavnim i sudbonosnim rezultatima.
Amy Webb - Founder and CEO, Future Today Institute
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.” Full bio
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.” Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So my name is Amy Webb,
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Zovem se Ejmi Veb,
00:15
and a few years ago I found myself at the end
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i pre nekoliko godina
sam se ponovo našla
sam se ponovo našla
00:17
of yet another fantastic relationship
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na kraju još jedne fenomenalne veze
00:20
that came burning down in a spectacular fashion.
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koja se završila na spektakularan način.
00:23
And I thought, you know, what's wrong with me?
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I pomislila sam,
šta nije u redu sa mnom?
šta nije u redu sa mnom?
00:26
I don't understand why this keeps happening.
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Ne razumem zašto mi se
ovo stalno dešava.
ovo stalno dešava.
00:28
So I asked everybody in my life
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Tako sam pitala svakoga
ko je deo mog života
ko je deo mog života
00:30
what they thought.
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šta misli o tome.
00:32
I turned to my grandmother,
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Pitala sam svoju baku,
00:33
who always had plenty of advice,
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koja je oduvek puna saveta,
00:36
and she said, "Stop being so picky.
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i ona je odgovorila:
"Ne budi toliko izbirljiva.
"Ne budi toliko izbirljiva.
00:39
You've got to date around.
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Moraš da se zabavljaš.
00:40
And most importantly,
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I što je najvažnije,
00:42
true love will find you when you least expect it."
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prava ljubav će naići
kad se najmanje nadaš."
kad se najmanje nadaš."
00:46
Now as it turns out,
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I kako se ispostavilo,
00:48
I'm somebody who thinks a lot about data,
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ja sam neko ko puno
razmišlja o podacima,
razmišlja o podacima,
00:50
as you'll soon find.
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što ćete uskoro i sami otkriti.
00:52
I am constantly swimming in numbers
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Stalno plivam u brojevima
00:55
and formulas and charts.
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i formulama i čartovima.
00:56
I also have a very tight-knit family,
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Takođe sam jako vezana za porodicu,
00:59
and I'm very, very close with my sister,
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veoma sam bliska sa sestrom,
01:01
and as a result, I wanted to have
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i kao rezultat toga,
želela sam da imam
želela sam da imam
01:02
the same type of family when I grew up.
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sličnu porodicu i kada odrastem.
01:04
So I'm at the end of this bad breakup,
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I tako sam na kraju
tog gadnog raskida,
tog gadnog raskida,
01:06
I'm 30 years old,
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imam 30 godina,
01:08
I figure I'm probably going to have
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shvatam da ću verovatno morati
01:09
to date somebody for about six months
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da se zabavljam sa nekim
oko 6 meseci
oko 6 meseci
01:11
before I'm ready to get monogamous
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pre nego što se odlučim
na monogamnost
na monogamnost
01:13
and before we can sort of cohabitate,
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i pre nego što ćemo moći
da funkcionišemo zajedno,
da funkcionišemo zajedno,
01:15
and we have to have that happen for a while before we can get engaged.
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to će trajati neko izvesno vreme
pre nego što se verimo.
pre nego što se verimo.
01:18
And if I want to start having children by the time I'm 35,
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I ako želim da imam decu pre 35.,
01:21
that meant that I would have had to have been
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to bi značilo da sam morala
01:23
on my way to marriage five years ago.
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da budem na putu da se udam
još pre pet godina.
još pre pet godina.
01:26
So that wasn't going to work.
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Pa to neće ići.
01:27
If my strategy was to least-expect my way
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Ako je moja strategija bila da
ću sresti pravu ljubav
ću sresti pravu ljubav
01:30
into true love, then the variable that I had
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kad se najmanje nadam,
onda je varijabla koju sam imala
onda je varijabla koju sam imala
01:32
to deal with was serendipity.
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bila suočavanje
sa srećnom okolnošću.
sa srećnom okolnošću.
01:34
In short, I was trying to figure out, well,
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Ukratko, pokušavala sam
da otkrijem
da otkrijem
01:36
what's the probability of my finding Mr. Right?
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koja je verovatnoća da ću pronaći
svog gospodina Pravog?
svog gospodina Pravog?
01:40
Well, at the time I was living in the city of Philadelphia,
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U to vreme sam živela u Filadelfiji,
01:42
and it's a big city, and I figured,
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to je veliki grad, i shvatila sam
01:45
in this entire place, there are lots of possibilities.
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da na tolikom prostoru
ima puno mogućnosti.
ima puno mogućnosti.
01:48
So again, I started doing some math.
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I ponovo sam počela
malo da računam.
malo da računam.
01:50
Population of Philadelphia: It has 1.5 million people.
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Populacija Filadelfije
je 1,5 miliona ljudi.
je 1,5 miliona ljudi.
01:54
I figure about half of that are men,
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Pretpostavila sam da su
pola od toga muškarci,
pola od toga muškarci,
01:55
so that takes the number down to 750,000.
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i to smanjuje broj na 750 000.
01:58
I'm looking for a guy between the ages of 30 and 36,
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Tragam za muškarcem
između 30 i 36 godina,
između 30 i 36 godina,
02:01
which was only four percent of the population,
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što čini svega 4% populacije,
02:04
so now I'm dealing with the possibility of 30,000 men.
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tako da se sada suočavam
sa mogućnošću od 30 000 muškaraca.
sa mogućnošću od 30 000 muškaraca.
02:07
I was looking for somebody who was Jewish,
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Tražila sam nekoga ko je Jevrejin,
02:08
because that's what I am and that was important to me.
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jer ja sam Jevrejka i to mi je važno.
02:11
That's only 2.3 percent of the population.
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To je svega 2,3 procenata populacije.
02:13
I figure I'm attracted to maybe one out of 10
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I pretpostavila sam da će me
privući jedan od 10
privući jedan od 10
02:15
of those men,
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od tih muškaraca,
02:18
and there was no way I was going
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i nije bilo šanse da ću
da budem sa nekim
da budem sa nekim
02:20
to deal with somebody who was an avid golfer.
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ko je strastveni igrač golfa.
02:22
So that basically meant there were 35 men for me
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I to je praktično značilo
da je bilo 35 muškaraca
da je bilo 35 muškaraca
02:25
that I could possibly date
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sa kojima bih možda mogla da izađem
02:28
in the entire city of Philadelphia.
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u čitavom gradu Filadelfiji.
02:32
In the meantime, my very large Jewish family
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U međuvremenu, u mojoj
velikoj jevrejskoj porodici
velikoj jevrejskoj porodici
02:35
was already all married and well on their way
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svi su već bili venčani i na putu
02:38
to having lots and lots of children,
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da imaju mnogo dece,
02:40
and I felt like I was under tremendous peer pressure
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i osećala sam da sam pod
neverovatnim pritiskom
neverovatnim pritiskom
02:42
to get my life going already.
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da se moj život pokrene.
02:44
So if I have two possible strategies at this point
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I ukoliko imam svega dve mogućnosti
u ovom trenutku
u ovom trenutku
02:46
I'm sort of figuring out.
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moram to rešiti.
02:47
One, I can take my grandmother's advice
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Jedna, mogu poslušati savet bake
02:50
and sort of least-expect my way
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da ću, kad se najmanje nadam,
02:52
into maybe bumping into the one
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da naletim na jednog
02:55
out of 35 possible men in the entire
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od 35 mogućih muškaraca u celom
02:57
1.5 million-person city of Philadelphia,
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gradu Filadelfiji koji ima
1,5 miliona stanovnika,
1,5 miliona stanovnika,
03:01
or I could try online dating.
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ili da pokušam
sastanak preko interneta.
sastanak preko interneta.
03:04
Now, I like the idea of online dating,
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Sviđa mi se ideja
sastanka preko interneta,
sastanka preko interneta,
03:06
because it's predicated on an algorithm,
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jer se zasniva na algoritmu,
03:08
and that's really just a simple way of saying
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i to je zaista jednostavan
način da se kaže
način da se kaže
03:10
I've got a problem, I'm going to use some data,
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imam problem,
upotrebiću neke podatke,
upotrebiću neke podatke,
03:12
run it through a system
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provući ih kroz sistem
03:13
and get to a solution.
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i dobiti rešenje.
03:16
So online dating is the second most popular way
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Internet upoznavanje je
drugi najpopularniji način
drugi najpopularniji način
03:18
that people now meet each other,
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kako se ljudi upoznaju,
03:20
but as it turns out, algorithms have been around
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ali se ispostavilo da
algoritmi postoje
algoritmi postoje
03:22
for thousands of years in almost every culture.
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hiljadama godina u svakoj kulturi.
03:25
In fact, in Judaism, there were matchmakers
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U judaizmu zapravo,
postojale su provodadžije,
postojale su provodadžije,
03:28
a long time ago, and though
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pre mnogo vremena, i iako
03:29
they didn't have an explicit algorithm per se,
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nisu imali nikakav algoritam
u pravom smislu,
u pravom smislu,
03:32
they definitely were running through formulas in their heads,
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sigurno je da su imali
formule u glavama,
formule u glavama,
03:34
like, is the girl going to like the boy?
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recimo, da li će se devojci
dopasti ovaj momak?
dopasti ovaj momak?
03:36
Are the families going to get along?
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Hoće li se porodice slagati?
03:38
What's the rabbi going to say?
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Šta će reći rabin?
03:39
Are they going to start having children right away?
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Hoće li odmah imati decu?
03:42
And the matchmaker would sort of think through all of this,
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I provodadžija bi razmislio
o svemu ovome,
o svemu ovome,
03:45
put two people together, and that would be the end of it.
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povezao dvoje ljudi i to bi bilo to.
03:47
So in my case, I thought,
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U mom slučaju, mislila sam,
03:49
well, will data and an algorithm
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da li će mi podaci i algoritam
03:52
lead me to my Prince Charming?
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pokazati put do princa
na belom konju?
na belom konju?
03:54
So I decided to sign on.
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Tako sam odlučila da se prijavim.
03:56
Now, there was one small catch.
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Ali, postojala je jedna začkoljica.
03:57
As I'm signing on to the various dating websites,
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Kako sam se prijavljivala
na razne sajtove za upoznavanje,
na razne sajtove za upoznavanje,
04:00
as it happens, I was really, really busy.
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dešavalo se da sam jako zauzeta.
04:02
But that actually wasn't the biggest problem.
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Ali to nije bio najveći problem.
04:05
The biggest problem is that I hate
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Najveći problem je to što mrzim
04:07
filling out questionnaires of any kind,
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da popunjavam upitnike
bilo kakve vrste,
bilo kakve vrste,
04:09
and I certainly don't like questionnaires
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i svakako da ne volim upitnike
04:11
that are like Cosmo quizzes.
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koji podsećaju na upitnike
iz časopisa Kosmopoliten.
iz časopisa Kosmopoliten.
04:13
So I just copied and pasted from my résumé.
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I tako sam samo kopirala
svoju biografiju.
svoju biografiju.
04:16
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
04:21
So in the descriptive part up top,
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Tako sam u gornjem delu za opis
04:24
I said that I was an award-winning journalist
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napisala da sam nagrađivani novinar
04:26
and a future thinker.
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i vizionar.
04:28
When I was asked about fun activities and
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Kada su me pitali
o zabavnim aktivnostima
o zabavnim aktivnostima
04:30
my ideal date, I said monetization
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koje želim kod svog partnera,
rekla sam zarada
rekla sam zarada
04:33
and fluency in Japanese.
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i tečno znanje japanskog.
04:36
I talked a lot about JavaScript.
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Puno sam pričala o Java skriptu.
04:38
So obviously this was not the best way
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I očigledno ovo nije bio najbolji način
04:42
to put my most sexy foot forward.
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da se prikažem u zavodljivom svetlu.
04:45
But the real failure was that
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Ali pravi neuspeh je bio
04:47
there were plenty of men for me to date.
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to što je tu bilo puno momaka
sa kojima bih izašla.
sa kojima bih izašla.
04:50
These algorithms had a sea full of men
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Ovi algoritmi su nudili
more muškaraca
more muškaraca
04:52
that wanted to take me out on lots of dates --
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koji su želeli da me
izvedu na sastanke -
izvedu na sastanke -
04:55
what turned out to be truly awful dates.
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koji su se ispostavili očajnim.
04:59
There was this guy Steve, the I.T. guy.
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Bio je ovaj lik Stiv, IT lik.
05:01
The algorithm matched us up
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Algoritam nas je povezao
05:03
because we share a love of gadgets,
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jer smo delili strast ka spravicama,
05:05
we share a love of math and data and '80s music,
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delili smo strast prema matematici
i muzici iz osamdesetih,
i muzici iz osamdesetih,
05:09
and so I agreed to go out with him.
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tako da sam pristala
da izađem sa njim.
da izađem sa njim.
05:11
So Steve the I.T. guy invited me out
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Tako me je Stiv, IT lik,
pozvao da izađemo
pozvao da izađemo
05:13
to one of Philadelphia's white-table-cloth,
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u jedan od prestižnih filadelfijskih,
05:15
extremely expensive restaurants.
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nenormalno skupih restorana.
05:17
And we went in, and right off the bat,
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Izašli smo, i istog trena,
05:19
our conversation really wasn't taking flight,
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pošto naš razgovor
stvarno nije vodio nikuda,
stvarno nije vodio nikuda,
05:22
but he was ordering a lot of food.
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on je počeo naručivati mnogo hrane.
05:24
In fact, he didn't even bother looking at the menu.
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Nije se ni trudio da pogleda jelovnik.
05:26
He was ordering multiple appetizers,
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Naručivao je po nekoliko predjela,
05:28
multiple entrées, for me as well,
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nekoliko glavnih jela,
i za mene takođe,
i za mene takođe,
05:31
and suddenly there are piles and piles of food on our table,
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i vrlo brzo se stvorila
gomila hrane na stolu,
gomila hrane na stolu,
05:33
also lots and lots of bottles of wine.
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kao i boca vina.
05:36
So we're nearing the end of our conversation
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Kako se bližio kraj našeg razgovora
05:38
and the end of dinner, and I've decided
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i večere, odlučila sam
05:39
Steve the I.T. guy and I are really just not meant for each other,
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da Stiv i ja nismo jedno za drugo,
05:42
but we'll part ways as friends,
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ali da možemo biti prijtelji,
05:44
when he gets up to go to the bathroom,
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kada je on ustao i otišao do toaleta,
05:47
and in the meantime the bill comes to our table.
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a u međuvremenu je stigao račun.
05:50
And listen, I'm a modern woman.
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Čujte, ja sam savremena žena.
05:53
I am totally down with splitting the bill.
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Skroz sam za to da se račun podeli.
05:56
But then Steve the I.T. guy didn't come back. (Gasping)
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Ali Stiv, IT lik, se nije vratio.
(Uzdah)
(Uzdah)
06:00
And that was my entire month's rent.
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A to je bila moja cela mesečna kirija.
06:04
So needless to say, I was not having a good night.
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I suvišno je i reći da nisam
imala baš prijatno veče.
imala baš prijatno veče.
06:08
So I run home, I call my mother, I call my sister,
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Otrčala sam kući,
pozvala sam majku, sestru,
pozvala sam majku, sestru,
06:11
and as I do, at the end of each one of these
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i kako sam im pričala o svakom
06:14
terrible, terrible dates,
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od ovih užasnih sastanaka,
06:16
I regale them with the details.
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tako sam ih počastila detaljima.
06:18
And they say to me,
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I rekle su mi:
06:20
"Stop complaining."
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"Prestani da se žališ".
06:22
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:23
"You're just being too picky."
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"Previše si izbirljiva."
06:26
So I said, fine, from here on out
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Rekla sam, u redu, od sada
06:28
I'm only going on dates where I know
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ići ću na sastanke tamo gde znam
06:29
that there's wi-fi, and I'm bringing my laptop.
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da postoji internet
i nosim svoj laptop.
i nosim svoj laptop.
06:31
I'm going to shove it into my bag,
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Gurnuću ga u torbu,
06:33
and I'm going to have this email template,
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imaću ovaj imejl šablon,
06:35
and I'm going to fill it out and collect information
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popuniću ga i sakupiti informacije
06:37
on all these different data points during the date
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o svim ovim raznim podacima
tokom sastanaka
tokom sastanaka
06:40
to prove to everybody that empirically,
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kako bih svima empirijski dokazala,
06:42
these dates really are terrible. (Laughter)
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da su ti sastanci očajni.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
06:44
So I started tracking things like
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Tako sam počela
da pratim stvari kao što su:
da pratim stvari kao što su:
06:46
really stupid, awkward, sexual remarks;
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2968
jako glupe, čudne, seksualne opaske;
06:49
bad vocabulary;
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loš rečnik;
06:51
the number of times a man forced me to high-five him.
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broj puta kada me je naterao
da mu bacim pet.
da mu bacim pet.
06:54
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
06:56
So I started to crunch some numbers,
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I tako sam počela
da se bavim brojkama,
da se bavim brojkama,
07:00
and that allowed me to make some correlations.
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i napravila neke korelacije.
07:03
So as it turns out,
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2624
Kako se ispostavilo,
07:06
for some reason, men who drink Scotch
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2909
iz nekog razloga,
muškarci koji piju viski
muškarci koji piju viski
07:09
reference kinky sex immediately.
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odmah ukazuju
da vole perverzan seks.
da vole perverzan seks.
07:11
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
07:13
Well, it turns out that these
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Mada, ispostavilo se
07:16
probably weren't bad guys.
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da ovo verovatno nisu bili loši momci.
07:17
There were just bad for me.
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Samo su bili loši za mene.
07:19
And as it happens, the algorithms that were setting us up,
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A i algoritmi koji su nas spajali
07:23
they weren't bad either.
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nisu bili loši.
07:24
These algorithms were doing exactly
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1940
Ovi algoritmi su radili upravo ono
07:26
what they were designed to do,
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1485
za šta su bili stvoreni,
07:27
which was to take our user-generated information,
182
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2794
a to je da preuzimaju
informacije o korisnicima,
informacije o korisnicima,
07:30
in my case, my résumé,
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u mom slučaju, moju biografiju
07:32
and match it up with other people's information.
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i da ih povežu sa informacijama
drugih korisnika.
drugih korisnika.
07:35
See, the real problem here is that,
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Pravi problem je ovde to što,
07:36
while the algorithms work just fine,
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dok algoritmi rade baš kako treba,
07:38
you and I don't, when confronted
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mi to ne uspevamo kada smo suočeni
07:40
with blank windows where we're supposed
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sa praznim prozorčićima gde treba
07:42
to input our information online.
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da ubacimo svoje informacije onlajn.
07:44
Very few of us have the ability
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Samo malo nas ima tu sposobnost
07:46
to be totally and brutally honest with ourselves.
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da bude potpuno i brutalno
iskren sa samim sobom.
iskren sa samim sobom.
07:50
The other problem is that these websites are asking us
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Drugi problem je i to što nam se
na ovim sajtovima postavljaju
na ovim sajtovima postavljaju
07:52
questions like, are you a dog person or a cat person?
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pitanja kao što su: jesi li osoba
koja voli pse ili mačke?
koja voli pse ili mačke?
07:55
Do you like horror films or romance films?
194
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Da li voliš horore
ili romantične filmove?
ili romantične filmove?
07:58
I'm not looking for a pen pal.
195
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1910
Ja ne tražim drugara za dopisivanje.
08:00
I'm looking for a husband. Right?
196
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Tražim muža. Je li tako?
08:02
So there's a certain amount of superficiality in that data.
197
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3139
Tako da postoji i neka doza površnosti
u ovim podacima.
u ovim podacima.
08:05
So I said fine, I've got a new plan.
198
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I pomislila sam, u redu,
imam novi plan.
imam novi plan.
08:08
I'm going to keep using these online dating sites,
199
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Nastaviću da koristim
ove sajtove za upoznavanje,
ove sajtove za upoznavanje,
08:10
but I'm going to treat them as databases,
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2711
ali ću ih koristiti kao bazu podataka,
08:12
and rather than waiting for an algorithm to set me up,
201
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2750
i umesto da čekam da mi
algoritam pronađe para,
algoritam pronađe para,
08:15
I think I'm going to try reverse-engineering this entire system.
202
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3667
pokušaću da preokrenem ovaj sistem.
08:19
So knowing that there was superficial data
203
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3145
Kako znam da ima površnih informacija
08:22
that was being used to match me up with other people,
204
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2352
koje se koriste da bi spojile ljude,
08:24
I decided instead to ask my own questions.
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odlučila sam da umesto toga
postavim svoja pitanja.
postavim svoja pitanja.
08:27
What was every single possible thing
206
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1638
Pokušala sam da se prisetim
svake moguće stvari
svake moguće stvari
08:28
that I could think of that I was looking for in a mate?
207
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2903
koje sam mogla,
koje tražim kod partnera.
koje tražim kod partnera.
08:31
So I started writing and writing and writing,
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499756
4534
Tako sam počela da pišem
i pišem i pišem,
i pišem i pišem,
08:36
and at the end, I had amassed
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2302
i na kraju sam sakupila
08:38
72 different data points.
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2581
72 različita podatka.
08:41
I wanted somebody was Jew...ish,
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509173
2406
Želela sam da je neko
umereni jevrejin,
umereni jevrejin,
08:43
so I was looking for somebody who had the same
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dakle tražila sam nekoga ko ima isto
08:45
background and thoughts on our culture,
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2561
poreklo i mišljenje o našoj kulturi,
08:47
but wasn't going to force me to go to shul
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1573
ali ko me neće forsirati
da idem u sinagogu
da idem u sinagogu
08:49
every Friday and Saturday.
215
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2333
svakog petka i subote.
08:51
I wanted somebody who worked hard,
216
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1590
Želela sam nekoga ko vredno radi,
08:53
because work for me is extremely important,
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1884
jer je rad za mene jako važan,
08:55
but not too hard.
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ali ne previše.
08:56
For me, the hobbies that I have
219
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1680
Za mene su hobiji koje imam
08:58
are really just new work projects that I've launched.
220
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zapravo samo novi projekti
koje pokrećem.
koje pokrećem.
09:01
I also wanted somebody who not only wanted two children,
221
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3165
Želela sam nekoga ko
ne samo da želi dvoje dece,
ne samo da želi dvoje dece,
09:04
but was going to have the same attitude toward parenting that I do,
222
532516
2895
već da ima iste stavove
po pitanju vaspitanja kao ja,
po pitanju vaspitanja kao ja,
09:07
so somebody who was going to be totally okay
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535411
1931
dakle nekoga kome bi bilo u redu
09:09
with forcing our child to start taking piano lessons at age three,
224
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3535
da nateramo decu da uzimaju
časove klavira sa tri godine,
časove klavira sa tri godine,
09:12
and also maybe computer science classes
225
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3656
možda čak i časove informatike
09:16
if we could wrangle it.
226
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1904
ako uspemo da to uklopimo.
09:18
So things like that, but I also wanted somebody
227
546437
1732
Takve stvari, ali sam takođe
htela nekoga
htela nekoga
09:20
who would go to far-flung, exotic places,
228
548169
2063
ko bi išao na daleka,
egzotična putovanja,
egzotična putovanja,
09:22
like Petra, Jordan.
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kao što je Petra u Jordanu.
09:23
I also wanted somebody who would weigh
230
551860
1505
Želela sam i nekoga
ko bi bio teži od mene
ko bi bio teži od mene
09:25
20 pounds more than me at all times,
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1928
oko 10 kilograma
u svakom trenutku,
u svakom trenutku,
09:27
regardless of what I weighed.
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1370
nezavisno od toga
koliko sam ja teška.
koliko sam ja teška.
09:28
(Laughter)
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2402
(Smeh)
09:31
So I now have these 72 different data points,
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559065
3074
I tako sam došla do 72 podatka,
09:34
which, to be fair, is a lot.
235
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2046
što je, budimo iskreni, mnogo.
09:36
So what I did was, I went through
236
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1382
Tako sam prošla kroz listu
09:37
and I prioritized that list.
237
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1822
i napravila prioritete.
09:39
I broke it into a top tier and a second tier of points,
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3953
Napravila sam rang listu
top poena i drugorazrednih poena,
top poena i drugorazrednih poena,
09:43
and I ranked everything starting at 100
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3225
i bodovala sam sve počevši od 100
09:46
and going all the way down to 91,
240
574567
1980
nadole do 91,
09:48
and listing things like I was looking for somebody who was really smart,
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576547
3240
i nabrajala stvari kao što su
da tražim nekoga ko je jako pametan,
da tražim nekoga ko je jako pametan,
09:51
who would challenge and stimulate me,
242
579787
1712
ko će mi biti izazov i stimulisati me,
09:53
and balancing that with a second tier
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2256
i potom balansirala to
sa drugim rangom
sa drugim rangom
09:55
and a second set of points.
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2025
i drugim nizom poena.
09:57
These things were also important to me
245
585780
1405
Ove stvari su mi takođe važne
09:59
but not necessarily deal-breakers.
246
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4816
ali ne presudne.
10:04
So once I had all this done,
247
592001
1421
I kada sam ovo uradila,
10:05
I then built a scoring system,
248
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1809
napravila sam bodovni sistem,
10:07
because what I wanted to do
249
595231
2623
jer sam želela
10:09
was to sort of mathematically calculate
250
597854
1850
da matematički proračunam
10:11
whether or not I thought the guy that I found online
251
599704
2506
da li će momak koga nađem onlajn
10:14
would be a match with me.
252
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1447
biti dobar par za mene.
10:15
I figured there would be a minimum of 700 points
253
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2443
Neko bi morao da ima
makar 700 poena
makar 700 poena
10:18
before I would agree to email somebody
254
606100
1546
da bih mu poslala
10:19
or respond to an email message.
255
607646
2166
ili odgovorila na mejl.
10:21
For 900 points, I'd agree to go out on a date,
256
609812
2002
Sa 900 poena,
pristala bih na sastanak,
pristala bih na sastanak,
10:23
and I wouldn't even consider any kind of relationship
257
611814
2681
a nikako ne bih ni razmatrala vezu
10:26
before somebody had crossed the 1,500 point threshold.
258
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4188
sa nekim ko ne prelazi 1500 poena.
10:30
Well, as it turns out, this worked pretty well.
259
618683
2872
Ispostavilo se da je ovo
radilo prilično dobro.
radilo prilično dobro.
10:33
So I go back online now.
260
621555
1809
Tako sam se vratila.
10:35
I found Jewishdoc57
261
623364
2755
Našla sam Jewishdoc57
10:38
who's incredibly good-looking, incredibly well-spoken,
262
626119
2937
ko je bio jako zgodan, vrlo naočit,
10:41
he had hiked Mt. Fuji,
263
629056
1718
ko je šetao planinom Fudži,
10:42
he had walked along the Great Wall.
264
630774
1742
a takođe i Velikim Zidom.
10:44
He likes to travel as long as it doesn't involve a cruise ship.
265
632516
3116
Voli da putuje
dok god ne ide kruzerom.
dok god ne ide kruzerom.
10:47
And I thought, I've done it!
266
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2738
I pomislila sam: uspelo mi je!
10:50
I've cracked the code.
267
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2064
Razbila sam šifru.
10:52
I have just found the Jewish Prince Charming
268
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3770
Pronašla sam jevrejskog princa
na konju
na konju
10:56
of my family's dreams.
269
644204
2218
iz snova moje porodice.
10:58
There was only one problem:
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2156
Ali postojao je samo jedan problem:
11:00
He didn't like me back.
271
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3309
ja se njemu nisam dopala.
11:03
And I guess the one variable that I haven't considered
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3086
I jedna varijabla
koju nisam uzela u obzir
koju nisam uzela u obzir
11:06
is the competition.
273
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1893
jeste konkurencija.
11:08
Who are all of the other women
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656866
1488
Ko su sve ostale žene
11:10
on these dating sites?
275
658354
2445
na ovim sajtovima?
11:12
I found SmileyGirl1978.
276
660799
3704
Našla sam SmileyGirl1978.
11:16
She said she was a "fun girl who is Happy and Outgoing."
277
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2829
Rekla je da je zabavna osoba
koja voli izlaske.
koja voli izlaske.
11:19
She listed her job as teacher.
278
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1442
Napisala je i da je nastavnica.
11:20
She said she is "silly, nice and friendly."
279
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2606
Još je dodala da je pomalo
luckasta, prijatna i druželjubiva.
luckasta, prijatna i druželjubiva.
11:23
She likes to make people laugh "alot."
280
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2449
Voli da zasmejava ljude "bašpuno".
11:25
At this moment I knew, clicking after profile
281
673829
2442
U ovom trenutku sam
saznala, gledajući profil
saznala, gledajući profil
11:28
after profile after profile that looked like this,
282
676271
2051
za profilom koji su bili poput ovog,
11:30
that I needed to do some market research.
283
678322
2176
da moram malo da ispitam tržište.
11:32
So I created 10 fake male profiles.
284
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3280
Napravila sam 10 lažnih
muških profila.
muških profila.
11:35
Now, before I lose all of you --
285
683778
2944
E sad, pre nego što vas sve izgubim -
11:38
(Laughter) --
286
686722
1753
(Smeh) -
11:40
understand that I did this
287
688475
3588
morate da razumete
da sam sve ovo uradila
da sam sve ovo uradila
11:44
strictly to gather data
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2137
samo da bih prikupila podatke
11:46
about everybody else in the system.
289
694200
1748
o svima ostalima u sistemu.
11:47
I didn't carry on crazy Catfish-style relationships with anybody.
290
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4195
Nisam nastavila
nikakvu ludu vezu ni sa kim.
nikakvu ludu vezu ni sa kim.
11:52
I really was just scraping their data.
291
700143
2013
Samo sam tragala za podacima.
11:54
But I didn't want everybody's data.
292
702156
1968
Ali nisam htela podatke od svakoga.
11:56
I only wanted data on the women
293
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1883
Samo sam htela podatke onih žena
11:58
who were going to be attracted
294
706007
1564
koje su privlačile
11:59
to the type of man that I really, really wanted to marry. (Laughter)
295
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3234
tip muškaraca za koje
sam želela da se udam. (Smeh)
sam želela da se udam. (Smeh)
12:02
When I released these men into the wild,
296
710805
3595
Kada sam pustila
ove muškarce u divljinu,
ove muškarce u divljinu,
12:06
I did follow some rules.
297
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1302
pratila sam neka pravila.
12:07
So I didn't reach out to any woman first.
298
715702
2140
Nisam prva posezala za ženama.
12:09
I just waited to see who these profiles were going to attract,
299
717842
2921
Čekala sam da vidim
koga će ovi profili privući,
koga će ovi profili privući,
12:12
and mainly what I was looking at was two different data sets.
300
720763
3371
i ono što sam tražila su bile
dve grupe podataka.
dve grupe podataka.
12:16
So I was looking at qualitative data,
301
724134
1538
Gledala sam kvalitativne podatke,
12:17
so what was the humor, the tone,
302
725672
1949
kakav humor, ton,
12:19
the voice, the communication style
303
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1562
glas, stil komunikacije
12:21
that these women shared in common?
304
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1850
je bio zajednički svim ovim ženama?
12:23
And also quantitative data,
305
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1283
Takođe i kvantitativne podatke,
12:24
so what was the average length of their profile,
306
732316
2338
prosečna dužina njihovih profila,
12:26
how much time was spent between messages?
307
734654
2235
koliko je vremena proticalo
između poruka?
između poruka?
12:28
What I was trying to get at here was
308
736889
1681
Ovako sam pokušavala
12:30
that I figured in person,
309
738570
1925
da provalim osobu,
12:32
I would be just as competitive
310
740495
1410
kako bih bila jednako kompetitivna
12:33
as a SmileyGirl1978.
311
741905
2065
kao i SmileyGirl1978.
12:35
I wanted to figure out how to maximize
312
743970
1900
Želela sam da otkrijem
kako da uvećam
kako da uvećam
12:37
my own profile online.
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745870
2940
šanse svog onlajn profila.
12:40
Well, one month later,
314
748810
1727
Mesec dana kasnije,
12:42
I had a lot of data, and I was able to do another analysis.
315
750537
3753
imala sam dovoljno podataka
da uradim još jednu analizu.
da uradim još jednu analizu.
12:46
And as it turns out, content matters a lot.
316
754290
2880
Kako se ispostavilo,
sadržaj je jako bitan.
sadržaj je jako bitan.
12:49
So smart people tend to write a lot --
317
757170
2706
Pametni ljudi teže da pišu puno -
12:51
3,000, 4,000,
318
759876
1875
3 000, 4 000,
12:53
5,000 words about themselves,
319
761751
1743
5 000 reči o sebi,
12:55
which may all be very, very interesting.
320
763494
2146
što može da bude jako zanimljivo.
12:57
The challenge here, though, is that
321
765640
1352
Izazov ovde je to što
12:58
the popular men and women
322
766992
1182
popularni muškarci i žene
13:00
are sticking to 97 words on average
323
768174
3772
u proseku imaju po 97 reči
13:03
that are written very, very well,
324
771946
1722
napisanih jako dobro,
13:05
even though it may not seem like it all the time.
325
773668
2890
čak iako ne mora
tako da deluje uvek.
tako da deluje uvek.
13:08
The other sort of hallmark of the people who do this well
326
776558
2149
Još jedan tipičan znak ljudi
koji ovo rade dobro
koji ovo rade dobro
13:10
is that they're using non-specific language.
327
778707
2153
jeste što koriste nespecifičan jezik.
13:12
So in my case, you know,
328
780860
1290
Tako da, u mom slučaju,
13:14
"The English Patient" is my most favorite movie ever,
329
782150
3198
"Engleski pacijent"
je moj omiljeni film,
je moj omiljeni film,
13:17
but it doesn't work to use that in a profile,
330
785348
3809
ali ne vredi upotrebiti to u profilu,
13:21
because that's a superficial data point,
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789157
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jer je to nebitan podatak,
13:22
and somebody may disagree with me
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790914
1542
a neko se možda
ne slaže sa mnom
ne slaže sa mnom
13:24
and decide they don't want to go out with me
333
792456
1215
i odluči da ne izađe
sa mnom na sastanak
sa mnom na sastanak
13:25
because they didn't like sitting through the three-hour movie.
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jer mu se ne sviđa ideja
da sedi i tri sata gleda film.
da sedi i tri sata gleda film.
13:28
Also, optimistic language matters a lot.
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Takođe, optimističan jezik
je jako bitan.
je jako bitan.
13:30
So this is a word cloud
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Ovo je oblak reči
13:32
highlighting the most popular words that were used
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i naglašeno je koje su
najpopularnije reči koje su korišćene
najpopularnije reči koje su korišćene
13:34
by the most popular women,
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kod najpopularnijih žena,
13:36
words like "fun" and "girl" and "love."
339
804138
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reči kao "zabavno"
i "devojka" i "ljubav".
i "devojka" i "ljubav".
13:38
And what I realized was not that I had
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2111
Shvatila sam da ne moram
13:40
to dumb down my own profile.
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1568
da zaglupljujem svoj profil.
13:42
Remember, I'm somebody who said
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1532
Setite se, ja sam osoba
13:43
that I speak fluent Japanese and I know JavaScript
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koja tečno govori japanski
i zna java skript
i zna java skript
13:46
and I was okay with that.
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i to je u redu.
13:48
The difference is that it's about being more approachable
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Razlika je u tome
da se bude pristupačniji
da se bude pristupačniji
13:51
and helping people understand
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2155
i da se pomogne
ljudima da razumeju
ljudima da razumeju
13:53
the best way to reach out to you.
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koji je najbolji način da dođu do vas.
13:55
And as it turns out, timing is also really, really important.
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I kako se pokazalo,
vreme je jako važno.
vreme je jako važno.
13:57
Just because you have access
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1650
Samo zato što imate pristup
13:59
to somebody's mobile phone number
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1744
nečijem mobilnom telefonu
14:01
or their instant message account
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1756
ili njihovom mejlu
14:03
and it's 2 o'clock in the morning and you happen to be awake,
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2407
i desi se da ste budni u dva ujutro,
14:05
doesn't mean that that's a good time to communicate with those people.
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3189
ne znači da je to dobro vreme
da pričate sa tim ljudima.
da pričate sa tim ljudima.
14:08
The popular women on these online sites
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Popularne žene na ovim sajtovima
14:11
spend an average of 23 hours
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1838
imaju u proseku 23 sata pauze
14:13
in between each communication.
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između dva razgovora.
14:15
And that's what we would normally do
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1931
I tako je i u normalnom
14:17
in the usual process of courtship.
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2064
procesu udvaranja.
14:19
And finally, there were the photos.
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847571
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I konačno, tu su i fotografije.
14:22
All of the women who were popular
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Sve popularne žene
14:24
showed some skin.
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852809
1625
pokazuju kožu.
14:26
They all looked really great,
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854434
2012
Sve izgledaju sjajno,
14:28
which turned out to be in sharp contrast
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2778
što je u direktnoj suprotnosti
14:31
to what I had uploaded.
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3293
sa onim što sam ja izbacila.
14:34
Once I had all of this information,
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862517
1640
Kada sam prikupila
sve ove informacije,
sve ove informacije,
14:36
I was able to create a super profile,
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2344
mogla sam da napravim
super profil,
super profil,
14:38
so it was still me,
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866501
1874
tako da sam to i dalje ja,
14:40
but it was me optimized now for this ecosystem.
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3909
ali prilagođena ovom ekosistemu.
14:44
And as it turns out, I did a really good job.
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4850
Ispostavilo se da sam
odradila jako dobar posao.
odradila jako dobar posao.
14:49
I was the most popular person online.
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877134
3056
Postala sam najpopularnija
osoba onlajn.
osoba onlajn.
14:52
(Laughter)
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2519
(Smeh)
14:54
(Applause)
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882709
4214
(Aplauz)
14:58
And as it turns out, lots and lots of men wanted to date me.
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3487
Ispostavilo se da je mnogo muškaraca
želelo da izađe sa mnom.
želelo da izađe sa mnom.
15:02
So I call my mom, I call my sister, I call my grandmother.
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2406
Pozvala sam majku, sestru, baku.
15:04
I'm telling them about this fabulous news,
375
892816
1831
Saopštila sam im
ove fenomenalne vesti,
ove fenomenalne vesti,
15:06
and they say, "This is wonderful!
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894647
1869
i rekle su: "Pa to je odlično!
15:08
How soon are you going out?"
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896516
2117
Kada izlaziš?"
15:10
And I said, "Well, actually, I'm not going to go out with anybody."
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2439
Rekla sam: "Pa, zapravo,
ne izlazim ni sa kim."
ne izlazim ni sa kim."
15:13
Because remember, in my scoring system,
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901072
1937
Jer, setite se,
u mom bodovnom sistemu,
u mom bodovnom sistemu,
15:15
they have to reach a minimum threshold of 700 points,
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903009
2334
bilo je potrebno da se pređe
minimum od 700 poena,
minimum od 700 poena,
15:17
and none of them have done that.
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2310
a niko od njih nije uspeo u tome.
15:19
They said, "What? You're still being too damn picky."
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2778
Rekle su mi: "Šta? I dalje si
toliko prokleto izbirljiva."
toliko prokleto izbirljiva."
15:22
Well, not too long after that,
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910431
1657
Međutim, nedugo nakon toga,
15:24
I found this guy, Thevenin,
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912088
2202
našla sam ovog momka, Tevenina,
15:26
and he said that he was culturally Jewish,
385
914290
2470
rekao je da je jevrejskog porekla,
15:28
he said that his job was an arctic baby seal hunter,
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3020
da je lovac na bebe arktičkih foka,
15:31
which I thought was very clever.
387
919780
2564
za šta mislim da je jako pametno.
15:34
He talked in detail about travel.
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922344
2877
Detaljno je pričao o putovanjima.
15:37
He made a lot of really interesting cultural references.
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925221
2313
Naveo je puno interesantnih
kulturoloških referenci.
kulturoloških referenci.
15:39
He looked and talked exactly like what I wanted,
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927534
3018
Izgledao je i pričao upravo
onako kako sam htela
onako kako sam htela
15:42
and immediately, he scored 850 points.
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930552
3211
i istog trena je zaradio 850 poena.
15:45
It was enough for a date.
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1761
To je bilo dovoljno za sastanak.
15:47
Three weeks later, we met up in person
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2116
Tri sedmice kasnije, sreli smo se
15:49
for what turned out to be a 14-hour-long conversation
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3358
što je dovelo
do četrnaestočasovnog razgovora
do četrnaestočasovnog razgovora
15:52
that went from coffee shop to restaurant
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2065
koji se od kafića preselio u restoran
15:55
to another coffee shop to another restaurant,
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943063
2333
do sledećeg kafića
i sledećeg restorana,
i sledećeg restorana,
15:57
and when he dropped me back off at my house that night
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1913
i kada me je vratio kući te večeri
15:59
I re-scored him --
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947309
1539
dala sam mu novi skor -
16:00
[1,050 points!] --
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948848
1253
1050 poena! -
16:02
thought, you know what,
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950101
1386
iako, znate šta,
16:03
this entire time I haven't been picky enough.
401
951487
3085
sve ovo vreme uopšte nisam
bila dovoljno izbirljiva.
bila dovoljno izbirljiva.
16:06
Well, a year and a half after that,
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954572
1632
Pa, godinu i po dana nakon toga,
16:08
we were non-cruise ship traveling
403
956204
2922
bili smo na putovanju bez kruzera
16:11
through Petra, Jordan,
404
959126
2085
kroz Petru u Jordanu,
16:13
when he got down on his knee and proposed.
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961211
3201
kada se spustio na koleno
i zaprosio me.
i zaprosio me.
16:16
A year after that, we were married,
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964412
2771
Godinu dana nakon toga
bili smo u braku,
bili smo u braku,
16:19
and about a year and a half after that, our daughter,
407
967183
2408
a godinu i po nakon toga,
naša kćerka,
naša kćerka,
16:21
Petra, was born.
408
969591
1800
Petra, je rođena.
16:23
(Applause)
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971391
7380
(Aplauz)
16:30
Obviously, I'm having a fabulous life, so --
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978771
2319
Očigledno je da imam
fenomenalan život, tako da -
fenomenalan život, tako da -
16:33
(Laughter) --
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1428
(Smeh) -
16:34
the question is, what does all of this mean for you?
412
982518
2628
je pitanje, šta ovo znači vama?
16:37
Well, as it turns out, there is an algorithm for love.
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985146
3848
Pa, ispostavilo se da postoji
algoritam za ljubav.
algoritam za ljubav.
16:40
It's just not the ones that we're being presented with online.
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988994
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Samo to nisu oni koji su nam
predstavljeni na internetu.
predstavljeni na internetu.
16:44
In fact, it's something that you write yourself.
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2236
To je nešto što sami pišete.
16:46
So whether you're looking for a husband or a wife
416
994926
2251
Pa bilo da tragate
za mužem ili ženom,
za mužem ili ženom,
16:49
or you're trying to find your passion
417
997177
2062
ili pokušavate da pronađete
svoju strast
svoju strast
16:51
or you're trying to start a business,
418
999239
1474
ili da pokrenete svoj biznis,
16:52
all you have to really do is figure out your own framework
419
1000713
3057
sve što treba da uradite je
da kreirate sopstveni okvir
da kreirate sopstveni okvir
16:55
and play by your own rules,
420
1003770
1917
i da igrate po svojim pravilima,
16:57
and feel free to be as picky as you want.
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1005687
2640
i imajte slobodu da budete
izbirljivi koliko god hoćete.
izbirljivi koliko god hoćete.
17:00
Well, on my wedding day,
422
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1460
Na dan mog venčanja,
17:01
I had a conversation again with my grandmother,
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1009787
1906
ponovo sam pričala sa bakom,
17:03
and she said, "All right, maybe I was wrong.
424
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2797
i rekla mi je: "Pa dobro,
možda nisam bila u pravu.
možda nisam bila u pravu.
17:06
It looks like you did come up with
425
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1283
izgleda da si došla
17:07
a really, really great system.
426
1015773
2016
do stvarno sjajnog sistema.
17:09
Now, your matzoh balls.
427
1017789
2935
A sad, tvoje maca knedle
17:12
They should be fluffy, not hard."
428
1020724
3131
Treba da su vazdušaste,
ne ovako tvrde."
ne ovako tvrde."
17:15
And I'll take her advice on that.
429
1023855
1552
I poslušaću taj njen savet.
17:17
(Applause)
430
1025407
4602
(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Amy Webb - Founder and CEO, Future Today InstituteAmy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.”
Why you should listen
Amy Webb uses data to understand the present and future of humanity, a practice she first developed as a journalist for the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek and has continued as a futurist. She is the head of the Future Today Institute, which researches collisions between technology, society and business — and maps scenarios that are on the horizon. She was named to the Thinkers50 Radar list of the 30 management thinkers most likely to shape the future of how organizations are managed and led.
Webb is on the adjunct faculty at the NYU Stern School of Business, where she teaches a popular MBA-level course on futures forecasting. She is the author of The Signals Are Talking, Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, which has become the standard text on futures forecasting and explains how to predict and manage technological change. Her book Data: A Love Story tells the tale of how she gamed the online dating system to figure out how to find the love of her life.
Amy Webb | Speaker | TED.com