TEDSalon NY2013
Amy Webb: How I hacked online dating
艾咪·韦伯: 玩转婚恋网
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Readability: 3.7
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艾米·韦伯 (Amy Webb)在婚恋网运气不佳－－看上的人不回复，约她的人又谈不拢（还有更糟的）。所以，这位数据迷开始列表运算找幸福。来听听她如何玩转婚恋网，把烦人的遭遇化为改变命运的快乐机遇。
Amy Webb - Founder and CEO, Future Today Institute
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.” Full bio
Amy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.” Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So my name is Amy Webb,
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我的名字呢 叫艾米·韦伯
00:15
and a few years ago I found myself at the end
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几年前 我发现自己走到
00:17
of yet another fantastic relationship
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又一段美好恋情的尽头
00:20
that came burning down in a spectacular fashion.
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一切绚丽消逝
00:23
And I thought, you know, what's wrong with me?
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你说我 到底怎么了？
00:26
I don't understand why this keeps happening.
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真不懂 为什么每次都这样
00:28
So I asked everybody in my life
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我就去问 身边的人
00:30
what they thought.
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看他们 怎么想
00:32
I turned to my grandmother,
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我找到 姥姥
00:33
who always had plenty of advice,
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她总有 很多忠告
00:36
and she said, "Stop being so picky.
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她说 “别太挑剔了"
00:39
You've got to date around.
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“你得 多跟人谈谈"
00:40
And most importantly,
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“还有 最重要的是“
00:42
true love will find you when you least expect it."
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“顺其自然 缘分始终会来的“
00:46
Now as it turns out,
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而实际上
00:48
I'm somebody who thinks a lot about data,
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我这个人 总要找依据
00:50
as you'll soon find.
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这点相信你 很快会发现
00:52
I am constantly swimming in numbers
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我总是沉浸在 数字当中
00:55
and formulas and charts.
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长期和公式 图表打交道
00:56
I also have a very tight-knit family,
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同时 我的家庭 非常和睦
00:59
and I'm very, very close with my sister,
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我和姐姐 关系特别好
01:01
and as a result, I wanted to have
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所以 从小我就想
01:02
the same type of family when I grew up.
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长大以后 要有一个温暖的大家庭
01:04
So I'm at the end of this bad breakup,
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所以这次分手 很伤心
01:06
I'm 30 years old,
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我当时30岁
01:08
I figure I'm probably going to have
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想着 起码要和下一任
01:09
to date somebody for about six months
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交往6个月
01:11
before I'm ready to get monogamous
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才能真正 确定关系
01:13
and before we can sort of cohabitate,
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然后再考虑 搬一起住
01:15
and we have to have that happen for a while before we can get engaged.
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之后再过段时间 才考虑订婚
01:18
And if I want to start having children by the time I'm 35,
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所以 如果想在35岁之前 要孩子
01:21
that meant that I would have had to have been
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就意味着我必须
01:23
on my way to marriage five years ago.
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提前5年为结婚做准备
01:26
So that wasn't going to work.
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很明显 那行不通
01:27
If my strategy was to least-expect my way
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如果换个思路 “顺其自然”等缘分
01:30
into true love, then the variable that I had
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那么 我要面临的变数 是运气
01:32
to deal with was serendipity.
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那么 我要面临的变数 是运气
01:34
In short, I was trying to figure out, well,
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简单来说 我想探个究竟 看看
01:36
what's the probability of my finding Mr. Right?
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随缘偶遇真命天子 概率有多高
01:40
Well, at the time I was living in the city of Philadelphia,
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当时我呢 住在费城
01:42
and it's a big city, and I figured,
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这是个大城市 所以我判断
01:45
in this entire place, there are lots of possibilities.
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地方越大 机会越大
01:48
So again, I started doing some math.
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接着我又开始 算数了
01:50
Population of Philadelphia: It has 1.5 million people.
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费城人口：总共150万
01:54
I figure about half of that are men,
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估计 一半是男性
01:55
so that takes the number down to 750,000.
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有效人数 下降到75万
01:58
I'm looking for a guy between the ages of 30 and 36,
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我的目标是 30到36岁之间的男性
02:01
which was only four percent of the population,
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他们 占这部分人口的4%
02:04
so now I'm dealing with the possibility of 30,000 men.
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算起来 可能剩下3万人
02:07
I was looking for somebody who was Jewish,
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我要找 犹太人
02:08
because that's what I am and that was important to me.
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因为我本身也是 这点很重要
02:11
That's only 2.3 percent of the population.
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他们只占 这部分人口的2.3%
02:13
I figure I'm attracted to maybe one out of 10
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然后 估计10个人当中 有1个我喜欢
02:15
of those men,
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然后 估计10个人当中 有1个我喜欢
02:18
and there was no way I was going
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还有 我和爱打高尔夫的 完全合不来
02:20
to deal with somebody who was an avid golfer.
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还有 我和爱打高尔夫的 完全合不来
02:22
So that basically meant there were 35 men for me
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也就是说 对我而言
02:25
that I could possibly date
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费城总共有35位男士 适宜约会
02:28
in the entire city of Philadelphia.
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在整个费城！
02:32
In the meantime, my very large Jewish family
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与此同时 我们犹太大家族
02:35
was already all married and well on their way
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其他成员 全部都结了婚
02:38
to having lots and lots of children,
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而且还生了 很多很多孩子
02:40
and I felt like I was under tremendous peer pressure
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所以我总有 巨大的压力和紧迫感
02:42
to get my life going already.
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要尽快解决 人生大事
02:44
So if I have two possible strategies at this point
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这时候 我有两个办法
02:46
I'm sort of figuring out.
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我发现
02:47
One, I can take my grandmother's advice
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一是 可以听姥姥的话
02:50
and sort of least-expect my way
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尝试“顺其自然” 碰上那一位
02:52
into maybe bumping into the one
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尝试“顺其自然” 碰上那一位
02:55
out of 35 possible men in the entire
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在费城茫茫 150万人海中
02:57
1.5 million-person city of Philadelphia,
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偶遇那35位男士 其中的一位
03:01
or I could try online dating.
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又或者 我可以试试婚恋网
03:04
Now, I like the idea of online dating,
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其实我挺喜欢 这个概念
03:06
because it's predicated on an algorithm,
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因为我们可以 用运算规则推算结果
03:08
and that's really just a simple way of saying
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所谓运算规则 其实很简单
03:10
I've got a problem, I'm going to use some data,
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当我们遇到问题 只要收集数据
03:12
run it through a system
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放到系统里面 就能找到解决办法
03:13
and get to a solution.
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放到系统里面 就能找到解决办法
03:16
So online dating is the second most popular way
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婚恋网 现在已经成为大家
03:18
that people now meet each other,
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互相认识的 第二大途径
03:20
but as it turns out, algorithms have been around
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不过 网站的运算规则
03:22
for thousands of years in almost every culture.
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在几千年前 就可以找到
03:25
In fact, in Judaism, there were matchmakers
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例如犹太族 从很早以前就有媒人
03:28
a long time ago, and though
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例如犹太族 从很早以前就有媒人
03:29
they didn't have an explicit algorithm per se,
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虽然他们没有 列出公式
03:32
they definitely were running through formulas in their heads,
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但在脑子里 一定琢磨过这些问题
03:34
like, is the girl going to like the boy?
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比如 女孩会喜欢男孩吗？
03:36
Are the families going to get along?
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两家人能处得来吗？
03:38
What's the rabbi going to say?
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拉比(犹太教教师或法学导师)会怎么说？
03:39
Are they going to start having children right away?
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他们会不会马上生孩子？
03:42
And the matchmaker would sort of think through all of this,
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媒人们会 先想好这些问题
03:45
put two people together, and that would be the end of it.
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再把两个人凑到一起 就完事了
03:47
So in my case, I thought,
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而我呢 我想
03:49
well, will data and an algorithm
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能不能通过数据和公式
03:52
lead me to my Prince Charming?
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帮我找到白马王子？
03:54
So I decided to sign on.
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我决定注册
03:56
Now, there was one small catch.
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这里还有一个小插曲
03:57
As I'm signing on to the various dating websites,
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我开设了几个婚恋网帐户
04:00
as it happens, I was really, really busy.
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碰巧那段时间特别 特别忙
04:02
But that actually wasn't the biggest problem.
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不过那还不是 最大的问题
04:05
The biggest problem is that I hate
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最大的 问题是
04:07
filling out questionnaires of any kind,
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我讨厌填 问答表
04:09
and I certainly don't like questionnaires
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尤其不喜欢 时尚杂志小编爱问的题目
04:11
that are like Cosmo quizzes.
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尤其不喜欢 时尚杂志小编爱问的题目
04:13
So I just copied and pasted from my résumé.
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所以我直接把简历 复制粘贴上去
04:16
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
04:21
So in the descriptive part up top,
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上面 描述部分
04:24
I said that I was an award-winning journalist
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我说我是 获奖记者
04:26
and a future thinker.
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和未来思考者
04:28
When I was asked about fun activities and
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让我描述兴趣爱好和理想人选
04:30
my ideal date, I said monetization
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我填了 赚钱
04:33
and fluency in Japanese.
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和日语流利
04:36
I talked a lot about JavaScript.
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还写了很多关于 网页编码的内容
04:38
So obviously this was not the best way
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这一步 走得确实不太优雅
04:42
to put my most sexy foot forward.
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这一步 走得确实不太优雅
04:45
But the real failure was that
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最根本的问题是
04:47
there were plenty of men for me to date.
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还是有很多男士 和我约会
04:50
These algorithms had a sea full of men
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配对公式 为我找到一大批男士
04:52
that wanted to take me out on lots of dates --
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他们不断约我－－
04:55
what turned out to be truly awful dates.
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可结果却特别糟糕
04:59
There was this guy Steve, the I.T. guy.
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其中有一位 叫史蒂夫的技术男
05:01
The algorithm matched us up
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配对公式 发现我们都对小玩意着迷
05:03
because we share a love of gadgets,
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配对公式 发现我们都对小玩意着迷
05:05
we share a love of math and data and '80s music,
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我们是数学迷 数据迷 还是80年代歌迷
05:09
and so I agreed to go out with him.
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我同意见他
05:11
So Steve the I.T. guy invited me out
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然后这位技术男 带我到
05:13
to one of Philadelphia's white-table-cloth,
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费城一家 特别高消费的西餐厅
05:15
extremely expensive restaurants.
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费城一家 特别高消费的西餐厅
05:17
And we went in, and right off the bat,
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刚到 我们就发现
05:19
our conversation really wasn't taking flight,
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谈得 不太有意思
05:22
but he was ordering a lot of food.
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但他 点了很多吃的
05:24
In fact, he didn't even bother looking at the menu.
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他餐牌都 不用看
05:26
He was ordering multiple appetizers,
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就点了几份 开胃菜
05:28
multiple entrées, for me as well,
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几份主食 还帮我点了
05:31
and suddenly there are piles and piles of food on our table,
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忽然间 桌上堆满了大盘小盘吃的
05:33
also lots and lots of bottles of wine.
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还有 很多很多瓶酒
05:36
So we're nearing the end of our conversation
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在我们 谈得差不多
05:38
and the end of dinner, and I've decided
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晚餐也 接近尾声的时候
05:39
Steve the I.T. guy and I are really just not meant for each other,
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我确信和技术男 并非天生一对
05:42
but we'll part ways as friends,
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但再见 还可以是朋友
05:44
when he gets up to go to the bathroom,
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他去趟 洗手间
05:47
and in the meantime the bill comes to our table.
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帐单也来了
05:50
And listen, I'm a modern woman.
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看 我是现代女性
05:53
I am totally down with splitting the bill.
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平分帐单完全没问题
05:56
But then Steve the I.T. guy didn't come back. (Gasping)
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但 技术男却没回来（倒吸气）
06:00
And that was my entire month's rent.
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而那是我 整整一个月的房租
06:04
So needless to say, I was not having a good night.
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不用说 我那天晚上很不好受
06:08
So I run home, I call my mother, I call my sister,
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跑回家之后 我打电话找妈妈 找姐姐
06:11
and as I do, at the end of each one of these
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每一次经历这些 糟糕至极的约会之后
06:14
terrible, terrible dates,
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我都会 打给她们
06:16
I regale them with the details.
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我披露 每一个细节
06:18
And they say to me,
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之后 她们对我说
06:20
"Stop complaining."
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“别抱怨了”
06:22
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:23
"You're just being too picky."
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“你就是太挑”
06:26
So I said, fine, from here on out
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我说 好吧 那以后
06:28
I'm only going on dates where I know
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我只去 有无线网络的地方约会
06:29
that there's wi-fi, and I'm bringing my laptop.
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要带上 手提电脑
06:31
I'm going to shove it into my bag,
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把它 塞到袋子里
06:33
and I'm going to have this email template,
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然后做一个 邮件模版
06:35
and I'm going to fill it out and collect information
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把收集到的信息 填进去
06:37
on all these different data points during the date
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一边约会 一边填
06:40
to prove to everybody that empirically,
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用客观事实 向大家证实
06:42
these dates really are terrible. (Laughter)
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这些约会 究竟有多糟糕 （笑声）
06:44
So I started tracking things like
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我开始 记录那些
06:46
really stupid, awkward, sexual remarks;
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无聊又尴尬的 性暗示语言
06:49
bad vocabulary;
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不适当的用词
06:51
the number of times a man forced me to high-five him.
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还有对方 逼我与他击掌的次数
06:54
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:56
So I started to crunch some numbers,
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然后我开始 统计这些数据
07:00
and that allowed me to make some correlations.
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并且找到 一些关联
07:03
So as it turns out,
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我发现
07:06
for some reason, men who drink Scotch
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不知为什么 喝苏格兰威士忌的男性
07:09
reference kinky sex immediately.
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立马联想到 性怪癖
07:11
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:13
Well, it turns out that these
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当然 不是说
07:16
probably weren't bad guys.
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他们不好
07:17
There were just bad for me.
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只是 不适合我
07:19
And as it happens, the algorithms that were setting us up,
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同样 把我们凑到一起的 配对公式
07:23
they weren't bad either.
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也不差
07:24
These algorithms were doing exactly
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它们按预先设计好的 正常运行
07:26
what they were designed to do,
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它们按预先设计好的 正常运行
07:27
which was to take our user-generated information,
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用提取到的 用户信息
07:30
in my case, my résumé,
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比如 我的简历
07:32
and match it up with other people's information.
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再和其他人的信息 配对
07:35
See, the real problem here is that,
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可见 真正的问题是
07:36
while the algorithms work just fine,
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虽然公式会按部就班
07:38
you and I don't, when confronted
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我们却没有
07:40
with blank windows where we're supposed
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当我们面对 空白栏
07:42
to input our information online.
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填写 个人信息的地方
07:44
Very few of us have the ability
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没有多少人
07:46
to be totally and brutally honest with ourselves.
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可以赤裸裸地 描述完全真实的自己
07:50
The other problem is that these websites are asking us
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另一个问题是 网站总爱问
07:52
questions like, are you a dog person or a cat person?
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你喜欢猫还是喜欢狗？
07:55
Do you like horror films or romance films?
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爱看惊悚片还是爱情片？之类的问题
07:58
I'm not looking for a pen pal.
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我又不是来找笔友
08:00
I'm looking for a husband. Right?
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我在找丈夫 对吧？
08:02
So there's a certain amount of superficiality in that data.
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而这些数据 比较肤浅
08:05
So I said fine, I've got a new plan.
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所以 我有个新计划
08:08
I'm going to keep using these online dating sites,
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继续上 婚恋网
08:10
but I'm going to treat them as databases,
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但只把它们当作 资料库
08:12
and rather than waiting for an algorithm to set me up,
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而不是继续 被动地等公式配对
08:15
I think I'm going to try reverse-engineering this entire system.
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我要把整个系统反过来 重新定义
08:19
So knowing that there was superficial data
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既然公式配对 用的是肤浅信息
08:22
that was being used to match me up with other people,
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既然公式配对 用的是肤浅信息
08:24
I decided instead to ask my own questions.
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我决定 自己问问题
08:27
What was every single possible thing
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我要找的 另一半
08:28
that I could think of that I was looking for in a mate?
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需要具备 哪些条件呢？
08:31
So I started writing and writing and writing,
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我开始写 不停地写
08:36
and at the end, I had amassed
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到最后 我积攒了72个数据点
08:38
72 different data points.
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到最后 我积攒了72个数据点
08:41
I wanted somebody was Jew...ish,
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我想找 犹太人
08:43
so I was looking for somebody who had the same
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找一个与我有 共同文化背景和观点的人
08:45
background and thoughts on our culture,
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找一个与我有 共同文化背景和观点的人
08:47
but wasn't going to force me to go to shul
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但他又不会 强迫我
08:49
every Friday and Saturday.
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每周五六去 犹太集会
08:51
I wanted somebody who worked hard,
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我想找一个 勤奋的人
08:53
because work for me is extremely important,
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因为我觉得 工作特别重要
08:55
but not too hard.
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但不能 工作狂
08:56
For me, the hobbies that I have
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对我来说 我的兴趣
08:58
are really just new work projects that I've launched.
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无非是我的 一些新项目
09:01
I also wanted somebody who not only wanted two children,
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我还想找一个 打算生两个小孩
09:04
but was going to have the same attitude toward parenting that I do,
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2895
而且在育儿方面和我 观点一致的人
09:07
so somebody who was going to be totally okay
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也就是说 他完全不介意
09:09
with forcing our child to start taking piano lessons at age three,
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要孩子三岁学钢琴
09:12
and also maybe computer science classes
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可能还外加一些 电脑课
09:16
if we could wrangle it.
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如果 条件允许的话
09:18
So things like that, but I also wanted somebody
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除此之外 我还想找一个
09:20
who would go to far-flung, exotic places,
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愿意 远足异乡的人
09:22
like Petra, Jordan.
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一起去 约旦的彼得拉
09:23
I also wanted somebody who would weigh
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还有 我希望他
09:25
20 pounds more than me at all times,
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比我重20磅 不论时间
09:27
regardless of what I weighed.
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也不论我当时 体重是多少
09:28
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:31
So I now have these 72 different data points,
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有了这 72个数据点
09:34
which, to be fair, is a lot.
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说实话 还真不少了
09:36
So what I did was, I went through
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接下来着 我整理出
09:37
and I prioritized that list.
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优先次序
09:39
I broke it into a top tier and a second tier of points,
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分两层 排列这些数据点
09:43
and I ranked everything starting at 100
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然后从100
09:46
and going all the way down to 91,
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排到91？
09:48
and listing things like I was looking for somebody who was really smart,
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写的有 我希望找一个 很聪明的人
09:51
who would challenge and stimulate me,
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一个可以给我带来 挑战和刺激的人
09:53
and balancing that with a second tier
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然后在第二层
09:55
and a second set of points.
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放上 另外一组数据点
09:57
These things were also important to me
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这些对我 同样重要
09:59
but not necessarily deal-breakers.
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但不是 必不可少
10:04
So once I had all this done,
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列表完毕 之后
10:05
I then built a scoring system,
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我开始 建立计分系统
10:07
because what I wanted to do
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我想尝试 借助数学计算出
10:09
was to sort of mathematically calculate
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我想尝试 借助数学计算出
10:11
whether or not I thought the guy that I found online
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我和网站人选 是否匹配
10:14
would be a match with me.
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我和网站人选 是否匹配
10:15
I figured there would be a minimum of 700 points
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我想 对方至少要达到700分
10:18
before I would agree to email somebody
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才给他 发电子邮件
10:19
or respond to an email message.
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或者 回信
10:21
For 900 points, I'd agree to go out on a date,
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2002
达到900分 才答应约会
10:23
and I wouldn't even consider any kind of relationship
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我不会轻易 投入感情
10:26
before somebody had crossed the 1,500 point threshold.
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除非对方 超过1500分才可以考虑
10:30
Well, as it turns out, this worked pretty well.
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这个方法 还挺有效的
10:33
So I go back online now.
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我回到 婚恋网
10:35
I found Jewishdoc57
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发现了 Jewishdoc57
10:38
who's incredibly good-looking, incredibly well-spoken,
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2937
他出奇地帅 而且谈吐出众
10:41
he had hiked Mt. Fuji,
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1718
曾经登上 富士山
10:42
he had walked along the Great Wall.
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徒步长城
10:44
He likes to travel as long as it doesn't involve a cruise ship.
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而且他喜欢旅行 只要没有游船就好
10:47
And I thought, I've done it!
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我想 我成功了！
10:50
I've cracked the code.
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编码已被破解
10:52
I have just found the Jewish Prince Charming
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我终于发现了 犹太白马王子
10:56
of my family's dreams.
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正如 家人所愿
10:58
There was only one problem:
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问题 只有一个
11:00
He didn't like me back.
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他 并不喜欢我
11:03
And I guess the one variable that I haven't considered
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看来有一个变数 我还没考虑
11:06
is the competition.
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那就是 竞争对手
11:08
Who are all of the other women
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社交网站 都有哪些 其他的女性？
11:10
on these dating sites?
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社交网站 都有哪些 其他的女性？
11:12
I found SmileyGirl1978.
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我发现了 SmileyGirl1978
11:16
She said she was a "fun girl who is Happy and Outgoing."
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2829
她说她是 "快乐、活泼、有趣的女孩"
11:19
She listed her job as teacher.
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她填写的职业是 教师
11:20
She said she is "silly, nice and friendly."
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她说她 "很傻 很友善“
11:23
She likes to make people laugh "alot."
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“常常”爱逗大家笑
11:25
At this moment I knew, clicking after profile
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2442
就在那一刻 在点击完一个又一个
11:28
after profile after profile that looked like this,
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2051
类似的个人档案之后
11:30
that I needed to do some market research.
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我知道还需要 市场调研
11:32
So I created 10 fake male profiles.
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接着我建立了 10个虚拟的 男士档案
11:35
Now, before I lose all of you --
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2944
在人都 走光之前
11:38
(Laughter) --
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1753
（笑声）-
11:40
understand that I did this
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3588
我想请大家 谅解我的初衷
11:44
strictly to gather data
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2137
仅仅是 收集数据
11:46
about everybody else in the system.
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1748
去了解系统内的 其他人
11:47
I didn't carry on crazy Catfish-style relationships with anybody.
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4195
我并没有 借此进行任何不道德的交流
11:52
I really was just scraping their data.
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2013
确实只是 收集数据
11:54
But I didn't want everybody's data.
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1968
还不是 所有人的数据
11:56
I only wanted data on the women
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仅限女性 那些
11:58
who were going to be attracted
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我的理想伴侣 可能会喜欢的女性（笑声）
11:59
to the type of man that I really, really wanted to marry. (Laughter)
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我的理想伴侣 可能会喜欢的女性（笑声）
12:02
When I released these men into the wild,
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3595
我把虚拟男士 放出来之后
12:06
I did follow some rules.
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1302
还遵守了 一些规矩
12:07
So I didn't reach out to any woman first.
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首先我没有 主动联系女性
12:09
I just waited to see who these profiles were going to attract,
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只等着看 能吸引到谁
12:12
and mainly what I was looking at was two different data sets.
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主要关注点 有两方面
12:16
So I was looking at qualitative data,
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1538
首先是 定性数据
12:17
so what was the humor, the tone,
302
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1949
比如 幽默感 语调
12:19
the voice, the communication style
303
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1562
声音 沟通方式
12:21
that these women shared in common?
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1850
这些女性 的共通点是什么？
12:23
And also quantitative data,
305
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1283
还有 定量数据
12:24
so what was the average length of their profile,
306
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2338
比如 个人档案的平均长度
12:26
how much time was spent between messages?
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2235
两次通信之间 隔多久
12:28
What I was trying to get at here was
308
736889
1681
我想证明的是
12:30
that I figured in person,
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1925
如果有机会 面对面交流
12:32
I would be just as competitive
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1410
我的竞争力
12:33
as a SmileyGirl1978.
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2065
不比SmileyGirl1978差
12:35
I wanted to figure out how to maximize
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1900
所以 我想知道怎么调整 网上档案
12:37
my own profile online.
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2940
才能最好地 呈现自己
12:40
Well, one month later,
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1727
一个月 之后
12:42
I had a lot of data, and I was able to do another analysis.
315
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3753
我收集了大量数据 足够再分析一回
12:46
And as it turns out, content matters a lot.
316
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2880
结果发现 内容很重要
12:49
So smart people tend to write a lot --
317
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2706
聪明的人 往往写很多 — —
12:51
3,000, 4,000,
318
759876
1875
3、4千
12:53
5,000 words about themselves,
319
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1743
甚至5千字 自我介绍
12:55
which may all be very, very interesting.
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2146
也许真的 非常非常有意思
12:57
The challenge here, though, is that
321
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1352
但 很难匹敌
12:58
the popular men and women
322
766992
1182
最受欢迎男女
13:00
are sticking to 97 words on average
323
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3772
精选的97个字
13:03
that are written very, very well,
324
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1722
精选的97个字
13:05
even though it may not seem like it all the time.
325
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2890
虽然我们不一定 感觉得到
13:08
The other sort of hallmark of the people who do this well
326
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2149
高手们的另外一个杀手锏
13:10
is that they're using non-specific language.
327
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2153
是不特定语言
13:12
So in my case, you know,
328
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1290
以我为例 你看
13:14
"The English Patient" is my most favorite movie ever,
329
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3198
"英国病人" 是我 最喜欢的电影
13:17
but it doesn't work to use that in a profile,
330
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3809
但它不适合 放在个人档案里面
13:21
because that's a superficial data point,
331
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1741
因为这是一个 肤浅的数据点
13:22
and somebody may disagree with me
332
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1542
有人可能 会有不同意见
13:24
and decide they don't want to go out with me
333
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1215
并且 决定不和我约会
13:25
because they didn't like sitting through the three-hour movie.
334
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2699
仅仅因为他们不愿意 花三个小时看一场电影
13:28
Also, optimistic language matters a lot.
335
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2240
还有 积极正面的语言很重要
13:30
So this is a word cloud
336
798610
1436
看这些关键词
13:32
highlighting the most popular words that were used
337
800046
2460
里面是 最常用的词语
13:34
by the most popular women,
338
802506
1632
最受欢迎女性 都在用
13:36
words like "fun" and "girl" and "love."
339
804138
2575
比如 "有趣" “女孩” 还有 “爱”
13:38
And what I realized was not that I had
340
806713
2111
后来 我意识到
13:40
to dumb down my own profile.
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1568
没必要写一个 低智商简介
13:42
Remember, I'm somebody who said
342
810392
1532
还记得吗 我说
13:43
that I speak fluent Japanese and I know JavaScript
343
811924
3043
我能讲流利的日语 并且熟悉网页编码
13:46
and I was okay with that.
344
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1594
这些都 没问题
13:48
The difference is that it's about being more approachable
345
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2717
重点是 怎么写 让自己显得更亲切
13:51
and helping people understand
346
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2155
让别人知道 怎么采取主动
13:53
the best way to reach out to you.
347
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1612
让别人知道 怎么采取主动
13:55
And as it turns out, timing is also really, really important.
348
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2922
除此之外 时机也非常重要
13:57
Just because you have access
349
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1650
当我们拿到
13:59
to somebody's mobile phone number
350
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1744
别人的 手机号码
14:01
or their instant message account
351
829361
1756
或者 聊天帐号
14:03
and it's 2 o'clock in the morning and you happen to be awake,
352
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2407
碰巧凌晨2点还没睡
14:05
doesn't mean that that's a good time to communicate with those people.
353
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3189
也许不是 联系他们的好时机
14:08
The popular women on these online sites
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2649
最受欢迎的女性
14:11
spend an average of 23 hours
355
839362
1838
一般会等 23小时
14:13
in between each communication.
356
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2376
再进行 下一次沟通
14:15
And that's what we would normally do
357
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1931
这也是我们 约会时的常规
14:17
in the usual process of courtship.
358
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2064
这也是我们 约会时的常规
14:19
And finally, there were the photos.
359
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3405
最后 轮到照片了
14:22
All of the women who were popular
360
850976
1833
所有 受欢迎女性
14:24
showed some skin.
361
852809
1625
都会 露一些
14:26
They all looked really great,
362
854434
2012
她们 看起来很棒
14:28
which turned out to be in sharp contrast
363
856446
2778
形成 鲜明对比的
14:31
to what I had uploaded.
364
859224
3293
是我当时 上传的照片
14:34
Once I had all of this information,
365
862517
1640
掌握了 这些信息之后
14:36
I was able to create a super profile,
366
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2344
我建立了一个 超级档案
14:38
so it was still me,
367
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1874
我 还是我
14:40
but it was me optimized now for this ecosystem.
368
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3909
只是 在这个生态系统当中 更优化的我
14:44
And as it turns out, I did a really good job.
369
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4850
事实证明 我做得很不错
14:49
I was the most popular person online.
370
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3056
成了婚恋网 最受欢迎的人
14:52
(Laughter)
371
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2519
（笑声）
14:54
(Applause)
372
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4214
（掌声）
14:58
And as it turns out, lots and lots of men wanted to date me.
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后来 特别特别多男人想和我约会
15:02
So I call my mom, I call my sister, I call my grandmother.
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我又打电话给 妈妈 姐姐 和姥姥
15:04
I'm telling them about this fabulous news,
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告诉她们 这个好消息
15:06
and they say, "This is wonderful!
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她们说 "真棒 ！“
15:08
How soon are you going out?"
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“什么时候开始约会呀？"
15:10
And I said, "Well, actually, I'm not going to go out with anybody."
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然后我说 "嗯 我不会跟任何一个约会的"
15:13
Because remember, in my scoring system,
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因为 记得吧 要在计分系统
15:15
they have to reach a minimum threshold of 700 points,
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至少达到700分才行
15:17
and none of them have done that.
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这些男士们 都还不够
15:19
They said, "What? You're still being too damn picky."
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她们就说 "什么？你还是太挑剔了"
15:22
Well, not too long after that,
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然后 没过多久
15:24
I found this guy, Thevenin,
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我发现这个人 戴文宁（Thevenin）
15:26
and he said that he was culturally Jewish,
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他说他 接受犹太风俗
15:28
he said that his job was an arctic baby seal hunter,
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还说他的工作是 猎捕北极小海豹
15:31
which I thought was very clever.
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我觉得 这个说法很有意思
15:34
He talked in detail about travel.
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他详谈了很多 关于旅行的事
15:37
He made a lot of really interesting cultural references.
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引用了各种 有趣的文化
15:39
He looked and talked exactly like what I wanted,
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他外表和谈吐 都是我想要的
15:42
and immediately, he scored 850 points.
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当场就 拿下850分
15:45
It was enough for a date.
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够约会了
15:47
Three weeks later, we met up in person
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三个星期之后 我们见面
15:49
for what turned out to be a 14-hour-long conversation
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谈了足足 14小时
15:52
that went from coffee shop to restaurant
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从咖啡店 到餐厅
15:55
to another coffee shop to another restaurant,
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到另一家咖啡厅 再到下一家餐厅
15:57
and when he dropped me back off at my house that night
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那天晚上 他送我回家之后
15:59
I re-scored him --
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我重新评估
16:00
[1,050 points!] --
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[1,050分!]--
16:02
thought, you know what,
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看来
16:03
this entire time I haven't been picky enough.
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我一直还 不够挑剔
16:06
Well, a year and a half after that,
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一年半之后
16:08
we were non-cruise ship traveling
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我们去旅游 当然没有坐游船
16:11
through Petra, Jordan,
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在约旦的 佩特拉
16:13
when he got down on his knee and proposed.
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他单膝下跪 求婚
16:16
A year after that, we were married,
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一年之后 我们结婚
16:19
and about a year and a half after that, our daughter,
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又过了一年半 我们的女儿
16:21
Petra, was born.
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佩特拉 出生了
16:23
(Applause)
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（掌声）
16:30
Obviously, I'm having a fabulous life, so --
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可以看到 我很享受这段精彩人生 不过
16:33
(Laughter) --
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（笑声）-
16:34
the question is, what does all of this mean for you?
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问题是 这一切对你有什么意义？
16:37
Well, as it turns out, there is an algorithm for love.
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事实可以证明 爱有计算规则
16:40
It's just not the ones that we're being presented with online.
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但不是我们 在网上看到的那些
16:44
In fact, it's something that you write yourself.
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而是 你自己写出来的
16:46
So whether you're looking for a husband or a wife
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所以无论你要 寻觅另一半
16:49
or you're trying to find your passion
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还是 找回激情
16:51
or you're trying to start a business,
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又或者 要创业
16:52
all you have to really do is figure out your own framework
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只需要 真真切切地 找出自己的框架
16:55
and play by your own rules,
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按自己的规则 进行发挥
16:57
and feel free to be as picky as you want.
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爱多挑剔 就多挑剔
17:00
Well, on my wedding day,
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最后 在我的婚礼上
17:01
I had a conversation again with my grandmother,
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我和姥姥 又谈了一回
17:03
and she said, "All right, maybe I was wrong.
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她说 "好吧 也许是我错了“
17:06
It looks like you did come up with
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“看来 你确实做了”
17:07
a really, really great system.
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“一个 很棒很厉害的系统“
17:09
Now, your matzoh balls.
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“可是 你的玛索球”
17:12
They should be fluffy, not hard."
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“该松软些 不能太硬了”
17:15
And I'll take her advice on that.
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这个意见 我赞成
17:17
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Amy Webb - Founder and CEO, Future Today InstituteAmy Webb is a futurist and founder of the Future Today Institute, and is the award-winning author of three books, including “Data: A Love Story” and “The Signals Are Talking: Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream.”
Why you should listen
Amy Webb uses data to understand the present and future of humanity, a practice she first developed as a journalist for the Wall Street Journal and Newsweek and has continued as a futurist. She is the head of the Future Today Institute, which researches collisions between technology, society and business — and maps scenarios that are on the horizon. She was named to the Thinkers50 Radar list of the 30 management thinkers most likely to shape the future of how organizations are managed and led.
Webb is on the adjunct faculty at the NYU Stern School of Business, where she teaches a popular MBA-level course on futures forecasting. She is the author of The Signals Are Talking, Why Today’s Fringe Is Tomorrow’s Mainstream, which has become the standard text on futures forecasting and explains how to predict and manage technological change. Her book Data: A Love Story tells the tale of how she gamed the online dating system to figure out how to find the love of her life.
Amy Webb | Speaker | TED.com