TEDxPSU
Julia Galef: Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong
Džulija Gejlef (Julia Galef): Zašto mislite da ste u pravu čak i ako grešite
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Perspektiva je sve, posebno kada je reč o preispitivanju sopstvenih uverenja. Da li ste vojnik, sklon odbrani svog gledišta po svaku cenu, ili izviđač, podstaknut radoznalošću? Džulija Gejlef ispituje motive koji stoje iza ova dve mentalna sklopa i kako oni oblikuju način na koji tumačimo informacije, što je upleteno sa ubedljivom lekcijom iz istorije iz Francuske 19. veka. Kada se preispituju vaša čvrsta mišljenja, Gejlefova pita: „Za čim najviše žudite? Da li žudite da branite svoje uverenja ili žudite da vidite svet što je jasnije moguće?“
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
Htela bih da zamislite na trenutak
00:12
So I'd like you to imagine for a moment
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00:15
that you're a soldier
in the heat of battle.
in the heat of battle.
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da ste vojnik u žaru borbe.
Možda ste rimski pešak,
srednjovekovni strelac
srednjovekovni strelac
00:18
Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier
or a medieval archer
or a medieval archer
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00:22
or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.
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ili ste možda ratnik plemena Zulu.
00:24
Regardless of your time and place,
there are some things that are constant.
there are some things that are constant.
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Bez obzira na vreme i mesto u kome ste,
neke stvari su nepromenljive.
neke stvari su nepromenljive.
00:28
Your adrenaline is elevated,
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Nivo adrenalina vam je povišen
00:30
and your actions are stemming
from these deeply ingrained reflexes,
from these deeply ingrained reflexes,
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i vaši postupci proističu
iz tih duboko ukorenjenih refleksa,
iz tih duboko ukorenjenih refleksa,
refleksa koji imaju osnovu
u potrebi da se vi i vaša strana zaštitite
u potrebi da se vi i vaša strana zaštitite
00:35
reflexes rooted in a need
to protect yourself and your side
to protect yourself and your side
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i da se porazi neprijatelj.
00:39
and to defeat the enemy.
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Želim da sada zamislite
da igrate vrlo različitu ulogu,
da igrate vrlo različitu ulogu,
00:42
So now, I'd like you to imagine
playing a very different role,
playing a very different role,
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00:46
that of the scout.
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ulogu izviđača.
00:48
The scout's job is not
to attack or defend.
to attack or defend.
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Posao izviđača nije da napada ili brani.
00:51
The scout's job is to understand.
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Posao izviđača je da razume.
00:54
The scout is the one going out,
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Izviđač izlazi,
00:56
mapping the terrain,
identifying potential obstacles.
identifying potential obstacles.
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mapira teren, identifikuje
potencijalne smetnje.
potencijalne smetnje.
01:00
And the scout may hope to learn
that, say, there's a bridge
that, say, there's a bridge
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Izviđač se može nadati
saznanju da, recimo, postoji most
saznanju da, recimo, postoji most
01:04
in a convenient location across a river.
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na pogodnoj lokaciji preko reke.
01:06
But above all, the scout
wants to know what's really there,
wants to know what's really there,
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No, pre svega, izviđač hoće da zna
šta se zaista tamo nalazi,
šta se zaista tamo nalazi,
što je tačnije moguće.
01:09
as accurately as possible.
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01:12
And in a real, actual army, both
the soldier and the scout are essential.
the soldier and the scout are essential.
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U pravoj, stvarnoj vojsci,
vojnik i izviđač su suštinski značajni.
vojnik i izviđač su suštinski značajni.
01:17
But you can also think of each
of these roles as a mindset --
of these roles as a mindset --
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Takođe možete zamisliti
obe ove uloge kao mentalni sklop -
obe ove uloge kao mentalni sklop -
01:22
a metaphor for how all of us
process information and ideas
process information and ideas
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kao metaforu za način
na koji svi obrađujemo informacije i ideje
na koji svi obrađujemo informacije i ideje
01:26
in our daily lives.
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u našem svakodnevnom životu.
01:28
What I'm going to argue today
is that having good judgment,
is that having good judgment,
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Ono što ću obrazložiti danas
je da se posedovanje dobrog rasuđivanja,
je da se posedovanje dobrog rasuđivanja,
01:32
making accurate predictions,
making good decisions,
making good decisions,
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pravljenje tačnih prognoza,
donošenje dobrih odluka,
donošenje dobrih odluka,
01:35
is mostly about which mindset you're in.
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većim delom ima veze
sa mentalnim sklopom u kome ste.
sa mentalnim sklopom u kome ste.
01:38
To illustrate these mindsets in action,
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Da bih ilustrovala
te mentalne sklopove u akciji,
te mentalne sklopove u akciji,
01:41
I'm going to take you back
to 19th-century France,
to 19th-century France,
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odvešću vas u Francusku 19. veka,
01:45
where this innocuous-looking
piece of paper
piece of paper
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gde je ovaj naizgled bezazleni papir
01:48
launched one of the biggest
political scandals in history.
political scandals in history.
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pokrenuo jedan od najvećih
političkih skandala u istoriji.
političkih skandala u istoriji.
01:51
It was discovered in 1894
by officers in the French general staff.
by officers in the French general staff.
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Otkrili su ga 1894. godine
oficiri francuskog generalštaba.
oficiri francuskog generalštaba.
Bio je pocepan u kanti za otpatke,
01:56
It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,
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ali kada su ponovo sastavili delove,
01:59
but when they pieced it back together,
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02:01
they discovered
that someone in their ranks
that someone in their ranks
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otkrili su da je neko u njihovom rangu
02:03
had been selling
military secrets to Germany.
military secrets to Germany.
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prodavao vojne tajne Nemačkoj.
02:06
So they launched a big investigation,
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Stoga su pokrenuli veliku istragu
02:08
and their suspicions
quickly converged on this man,
quickly converged on this man,
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i njihova sumnja ubrzo je usmerena
na ovog čoveka,
na ovog čoveka,
02:12
Alfred Dreyfus.
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Alfreda Drajfusa.
Imao je čist dosije,
02:14
He had a sterling record,
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02:16
no past history of wrongdoing,
no motive as far as they could tell.
no motive as far as they could tell.
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nije imao istoriju prestupa,
nikakav motiv, koliko se moglo primetiti.
nikakav motiv, koliko se moglo primetiti.
Međutim, Drajfus je bio
jedini jevrejski oficir tog ranga u vojsci
jedini jevrejski oficir tog ranga u vojsci
02:20
But Dreyfus was the only
Jewish officer at that rank in the army,
Jewish officer at that rank in the army,
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02:25
and unfortunately at this time,
the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.
the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.
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i nažalost, u to vreme, francuska vojska
je bila veoma antisemitski nastrojena.
je bila veoma antisemitski nastrojena.
02:29
They compared Dreyfus's handwriting
to that on the memo
to that on the memo
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Uporedili su Drajfusov rukopis
sa onim na belešci
sa onim na belešci
02:32
and concluded that it was a match,
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i zaključili da se podudaraju,
02:34
even though outside
professional handwriting experts
professional handwriting experts
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iako su izvan vojske
profesionalni eksperti za rukopis
profesionalni eksperti za rukopis
02:37
were much less confident
in the similarity,
in the similarity,
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bili mnogo manje uvereni u sličnost,
02:40
but never mind that.
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ali nema veze.
02:41
They went and searched
Dreyfus's apartment,
Dreyfus's apartment,
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Krenuli su da pretražuju Drajfusov stan,
02:43
looking for any signs of espionage.
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tražeći bilo kakav znak špijunaže.
Prošli su kroz njegova dokumenta
i ništa nisu pronašli.
i ništa nisu pronašli.
02:45
They went through his files,
and they didn't find anything.
and they didn't find anything.
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02:48
This just convinced them more
that Dreyfus was not only guilty,
that Dreyfus was not only guilty,
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To ih je samo još više ubedilo
da ne samo da je Drajfus kriv,
da ne samo da je Drajfus kriv,
već je i podmukao,
jer je očigledno sakrio sve dokaze
jer je očigledno sakrio sve dokaze
02:51
but sneaky as well, because clearly
he had hidden all of the evidence
he had hidden all of the evidence
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pre nego što su uspeli da dođu do njih.
02:54
before they had managed to get to it.
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02:57
Next, they went and looked
through his personal history
through his personal history
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Zatim su razmotrili njegovu ličnu istoriju
radi bilo kakvih detalja
koji bi ga okrivili.
koji bi ga okrivili.
02:59
for any incriminating details.
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03:02
They talked to his teachers,
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Razgovarali su sa njegovim nastavnicima,
otkrili da je u školi učio strane jezike,
otkrili da je u školi učio strane jezike,
03:03
they found that he had studied
foreign languages in school,
foreign languages in school,
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što je jasno ukazalo na želju
da kuje zaveru sa stranim vladama
da kuje zaveru sa stranim vladama
03:06
which clearly showed a desire
to conspire with foreign governments
to conspire with foreign governments
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kasnije u životu.
03:10
later in life.
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03:11
His teachers also said that Dreyfus
was known for having a good memory,
was known for having a good memory,
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Njegovi nastavnici su takođe rekli
da je Drajfus bio poznat
po dobrom pamćenju,
po dobrom pamćenju,
03:18
which was highly suspicious, right?
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što je veoma sumnjivo, zar ne?
03:20
You know, because a spy
has to remember a lot of things.
has to remember a lot of things.
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Znate, jer špijun mora
da pamti mnogo stvari.
da pamti mnogo stvari.
03:24
So the case went to trial,
and Dreyfus was found guilty.
and Dreyfus was found guilty.
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Tako je slučaj dospeo na sud
i Drajfus je proglašen krivim.
i Drajfus je proglašen krivim.
03:28
Afterwards, they took him out
into this public square
into this public square
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Potom su ga odveli na javni trg
03:32
and ritualistically tore
his insignia from his uniform
his insignia from his uniform
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i ritualno pokidali oznake
sa njegove uniforme
sa njegove uniforme
03:35
and broke his sword in two.
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i polomili njegov mač na dva dela.
03:37
This was called
the Degradation of Dreyfus.
the Degradation of Dreyfus.
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To je nazvano degradacija Drajfusa.
03:40
And they sentenced him
to life imprisonment
to life imprisonment
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Osudili su ga na doživotnu kaznu zatvora
03:43
on the aptly named Devil's Island,
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na prikladno nazvanom Đavoljem ostrvu,
koje je pusta stena
pri obali Južne Amerike.
pri obali Južne Amerike.
03:46
which is this barren rock
off the coast of South America.
off the coast of South America.
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03:49
So there he went,
and there he spent his days alone,
and there he spent his days alone,
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Otišao je tamo i provodio dane sam,
03:53
writing letters and letters
to the French government
to the French government
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pišući pisma i pisma francuskoj vladi,
03:55
begging them to reopen his case
so they could discover his innocence.
so they could discover his innocence.
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moleći ih da ponovo otvore njegov sličaj
da bi mogli da otkriju da je nevin.
da bi mogli da otkriju da je nevin.
03:59
But for the most part,
France considered the matter closed.
France considered the matter closed.
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No, u većoj meri, Francuska je smatrala
njegovo pitanje završenim.
njegovo pitanje završenim.
04:03
One thing that's really interesting
to me about the Dreyfus Affair
to me about the Dreyfus Affair
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Ono što je meni zaista zanimljivo
u vezi sa „Aferom Drajfus“
u vezi sa „Aferom Drajfus“
04:07
is this question of why the officers
were so convinced
were so convinced
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je pitanje zašto su oficiri
bili tako ubeđeni
bili tako ubeđeni
04:11
that Dreyfus was guilty.
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da je Drajfus kriv.
Mislim, možete čak i pretpostaviti
da su mu podmetnuli,
da su mu podmetnuli,
04:13
I mean, you might even assume
that they were setting him up,
that they were setting him up,
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da su ga namerno optužili.
04:16
that they were intentionally framing him.
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Međutim, istoričari ne misle
da se to dogodilo.
da se to dogodilo.
04:18
But historians don't think
that's what happened.
that's what happened.
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Koliko možemo zaključiti,
04:20
As far as we can tell,
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oficiri su istinski verovali
da je slučaj protiv Drajfusa ubedljiv.
da je slučaj protiv Drajfusa ubedljiv.
04:21
the officers genuinely believed
that the case against Dreyfus was strong.
that the case against Dreyfus was strong.
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04:26
Which makes you wonder:
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To navodi da se zapitate
04:28
What does it say about the human mind
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šta govori o ljudskom umu
04:30
that we can find such paltry evidence
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to da takav tričav dokaz možemo smatrati
04:33
to be compelling enough to convict a man?
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dovoljno uverljivim da osudimo čoveka.
Pa, ovo je slučaj onoga što naučnici
zovu „motivisano rezonovanje“.
zovu „motivisano rezonovanje“.
04:36
Well, this is a case of what scientists
call "motivated reasoning."
call "motivated reasoning."
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04:40
It's this phenomenon in which
our unconscious motivations,
our unconscious motivations,
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To je pojava pri kojoj
naša nesvesna motivacija,
naša nesvesna motivacija,
04:43
our desires and fears,
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naše želje i strahovi
04:45
shape the way we interpret information.
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oblikuju način
na koji tumačimo informacije.
na koji tumačimo informacije.
04:48
Some information, some ideas,
feel like our allies.
feel like our allies.
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Neke informacije, neke ideje
se doživljavaju kao naši saveznici.
se doživljavaju kao naši saveznici.
04:51
We want them to win.
We want to defend them.
We want to defend them.
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Želimo da pobede. Želimo da ih branimo.
04:54
And other information
or ideas are the enemy,
or ideas are the enemy,
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Druge informacije
ili ideje su neprijatelji
ili ideje su neprijatelji
04:56
and we want to shoot them down.
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i želimo da ih oborimo.
04:59
So this is why I call
motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."
motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."
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Zato motivisano rezonovanje nazivam
„vojničkim mentalnim sklopom“.
„vojničkim mentalnim sklopom“.
05:03
Probably most of you have never persecuted
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Verovatno da većina vas
nikada nije progonila
nikada nije progonila
francusko-jevrejskog oficira
zbog veleizdaje,
zbog veleizdaje,
05:07
a French-Jewish officer for high treason,
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05:09
I assume,
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pretpostavljam,
05:10
but maybe you've followed sports
or politics, so you might have noticed
or politics, so you might have noticed
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ali možda ste pratili sport ili politiku,
tako da ste možda primetili da,
tako da ste možda primetili da,
05:15
that when the referee judges
that your team committed a foul,
that your team committed a foul,
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kada sudija presudi
da je vaš tim počinio faul,
da je vaš tim počinio faul,
05:19
for example,
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na primer,
05:21
you're highly motivated
to find reasons why he's wrong.
to find reasons why he's wrong.
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visoko ste motivisani
da nađete razloge zbog kojih nije u pravu.
da nađete razloge zbog kojih nije u pravu.
Međutim, ako presudi
da je drugi tim počinio faul - sjajno!
da je drugi tim počinio faul - sjajno!
05:24
But if he judges that the other team
committed a foul -- awesome!
committed a foul -- awesome!
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To je dobra odluka,
hajde da je ne preispitujemo previše.
hajde da je ne preispitujemo previše.
05:27
That's a good call,
let's not examine it too closely.
let's not examine it too closely.
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05:30
Or, maybe you've read
an article or a study
an article or a study
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Ili, možda ste čitali
članak ili istraživanje
članak ili istraživanje
05:32
that examined some controversial policy,
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koje ispituje neko kontroverzno pravilo,
kao što je smrtna kazna.
05:35
like capital punishment.
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Kao što su istraživači pokazali,
05:37
And, as researchers have demonstrated,
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05:39
if you support capital punishment
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ako podržavate smrtnu kaznu
05:41
and the study shows
that it's not effective,
that it's not effective,
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a istraživanja pokazuje
da nije delotvorna,
da nije delotvorna,
05:44
then you're highly motivated
to find all the reasons
to find all the reasons
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onda ste visoko motivisani
da pronađete sve razloge
da pronađete sve razloge
05:47
why the study was poorly designed.
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zbog kojih je istraživanje
loše osmišljeno.
loše osmišljeno.
05:49
But if it shows
that capital punishment works,
that capital punishment works,
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Međutim, ako pokazuje
da smrtna kazna deluje,
da smrtna kazna deluje,
to je dobro istraživanje,
05:51
it's a good study.
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i obrnuto, ako ne podržavate
smrtu kaznu, ista stvar.
smrtu kaznu, ista stvar.
05:53
And vice versa: if you don't
support capital punishment, same thing.
support capital punishment, same thing.
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Na naše rasuđivanje
snažno utiče, nesvesno,
snažno utiče, nesvesno,
05:56
Our judgment is strongly
influenced, unconsciously,
influenced, unconsciously,
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05:59
by which side we want to win.
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to koja strana želimo da pobedi.
06:02
And this is ubiquitous.
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To je prisutno svuda.
Oblikuje način na koji razmišljamo
o našem zdravlju, našim vezama,
o našem zdravlju, našim vezama,
06:03
This shapes how we think
about our health, our relationships,
about our health, our relationships,
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06:07
how we decide how to vote,
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kako odlučujemo kako ćemo glasati,
06:08
what we consider fair or ethical.
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šta smatramo pravednim ili etičkim.
Ono što je za mene najstrašnije
u vezi sa motivisanim rezonovanjem
u vezi sa motivisanim rezonovanjem
06:12
What's most scary to me
about motivated reasoning
about motivated reasoning
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ili vojničkim mentalnim sklopom
je to koliko je nesvesno.
je to koliko je nesvesno.
06:14
or soldier mindset,
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06:15
is how unconscious it is.
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06:17
We can think we're being
objective and fair-minded
objective and fair-minded
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Možemo misliti
da smo objektivni i pravični,
da smo objektivni i pravični,
06:20
and still wind up ruining the life
of an innocent man.
of an innocent man.
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a ipak na kraju uništimo život
nevinog čoveka.
nevinog čoveka.
Ipak, srećom po Drajfusa,
njegovoj priči nije kraj.
njegovoj priči nije kraj.
06:25
However, fortunately for Dreyfus,
his story is not over.
his story is not over.
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06:27
This is Colonel Picquart.
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Ovo je pukovnik Pikar.
06:29
He's another high-ranking officer
in the French Army,
in the French Army,
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On je drugi oficir visokog čina
u francuskoj vojsci
u francuskoj vojsci
06:31
and like most people,
he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.
he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.
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i, kao većina ljudi,
pretpostavljao je da je Drajfus kriv.
pretpostavljao je da je Drajfus kriv.
06:34
Also like most people in the army,
he was at least casually anti-Semitic.
he was at least casually anti-Semitic.
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Takođe, kao većina ljudi u vojsci,
bio je makar nezvanično antisemit.
bio je makar nezvanično antisemit.
06:39
But at a certain point,
Picquart began to suspect:
Picquart began to suspect:
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Ipak, u nekom trenutku,
Pikar je počeo da sumnja:
Pikar je počeo da sumnja:
06:43
"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"
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„Šta ako grešimo u vezi sa Drajfusom?“
06:46
What happened was,
he had discovered evidence
he had discovered evidence
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Desilo se da je on pronašao dokaz
06:48
that the spying for Germany had continued,
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da se špijuniranje za Nemačku nastavilo
čak i nakon što je Drajfus bio u zatvoru.
06:51
even after Dreyfus was in prison.
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06:53
And he had also discovered
that another officer in the army
that another officer in the army
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Takođe je otkrio
da drugi oficir u vojsci ima rukopis
da drugi oficir u vojsci ima rukopis
06:56
had handwriting that perfectly
matched the memo,
matched the memo,
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koji se savršeno slagao sa beleškom,
06:59
much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.
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mnogo bolje nego Drajfusov rukopis.
07:02
So he brought these discoveries
to his superiors,
to his superiors,
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Stoga je izneo ta otkrića
pred svoje nadređene,
pred svoje nadređene,
07:06
but to his dismay,
they either didn't care
they either didn't care
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ali, na njegovo zaprepašćenje,
njih ili nije bilo briga
njih ili nije bilo briga
07:09
or came up with elaborate rationalizations
to explain his findings,
to explain his findings,
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ili su pronašli podrobne racionalizacije
da bi objasnili njegove nalaze,
da bi objasnili njegove nalaze,
07:13
like, "Well, all you've really shown,
Picquart, is that there's another spy
Picquart, is that there's another spy
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poput: „Pa, sve što si zapravo pokazao,
Pikarte, jeste da postoji drugi špijun
Pikarte, jeste da postoji drugi špijun
07:18
who learned how to mimic
Dreyfus's handwriting,
Dreyfus's handwriting,
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koji je naučio kako da podražava
Drajfusov rukopis
Drajfusov rukopis
07:21
and he picked up the torch of spying
after Dreyfus left.
after Dreyfus left.
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i preuzeo je štafetu špijuniranja
nakon što je Drajfus otišao,
nakon što je Drajfus otišao,
07:25
But Dreyfus is still guilty."
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ali Drajfus je i dalje kriv.“
07:27
Eventually, Picquart managed
to get Dreyfus exonerated.
to get Dreyfus exonerated.
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Na kraju je Pikar uspeo
da oslobodi Drajfusa,
da oslobodi Drajfusa,
07:30
But it took him 10 years,
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ali mu je trebalo 10 godina,
07:32
and for part of that time,
he himself was in prison
he himself was in prison
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a delom tog vremena
je i on sam bio u zatvoru
je i on sam bio u zatvoru
07:35
for the crime of disloyalty to the army.
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zbog zločina nelojalnosti vojsci.
07:38
A lot of people feel like Picquart
can't really be the hero of this story
can't really be the hero of this story
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Mnogo ljudi smatra da Pikar
ne može stvarno biti heroj ove priče
ne može stvarno biti heroj ove priče
07:44
because he was an anti-Semite
and that's bad, which I agree with.
and that's bad, which I agree with.
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jer je bio antisemit i to je loše,
sa čime se slažem.
sa čime se slažem.
Ipak, za mene lično,
činjenica da je Pikar bio antisemit
činjenica da je Pikar bio antisemit
07:49
But personally, for me,
the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic
the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic
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07:53
actually makes his actions more admirable,
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zapravo čini njegov postupak
više vrednim divljenja,
više vrednim divljenja,
07:56
because he had the same prejudices,
the same reasons to be biased
the same reasons to be biased
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jer je imao iste predrasude,
iste razloge da bude pristrasan
iste razloge da bude pristrasan
kao i njegove kolege oficiri,
07:59
as his fellow officers,
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08:01
but his motivation to find the truth
and uphold it trumped all of that.
and uphold it trumped all of that.
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ali je sve to nadjačala njegova motivacija
da nađe istinu i podrži je.
da nađe istinu i podrži je.
08:07
So to me,
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Zato je, za mene,
08:08
Picquart is a poster child
for what I call "scout mindset."
for what I call "scout mindset."
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Pikar je ilustracija onoga što nazivam
„izviđački mentalni sklop“.
„izviđački mentalni sklop“.
08:12
It's the drive not to make
one idea win or another lose,
one idea win or another lose,
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To je poriv ne da se postigne
da jedna ideja pobedi ili druga izgubi,
da jedna ideja pobedi ili druga izgubi,
već samo da vidi
šta se zapravo tamo nalazi,
šta se zapravo tamo nalazi,
08:16
but just to see what's really there
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08:18
as honestly and accurately as you can,
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što je ispravnije i tačnije moguće,
08:21
even if it's not pretty
or convenient or pleasant.
or convenient or pleasant.
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čak i ako nije lepo,
povoljno ili prijatno.
povoljno ili prijatno.
08:25
This mindset is what
I'm personally passionate about.
I'm personally passionate about.
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Prema tom mentalnom sklopu
lično osećam strast.
lično osećam strast.
08:28
And I've spent the last few years
examining and trying to figure out
examining and trying to figure out
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Provela sam poslednjih nekoliko godina
proučavajući i pokušavajući da otkrijem
proučavajući i pokušavajući da otkrijem
08:33
what causes scout mindset.
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šta prouzrokuje izviđački mentalni sklop.
08:35
Why are some people, sometimes at least,
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Zašto su neki ljudi, bar ponekad,
08:39
able to cut through their own prejudices
and biases and motivations
and biases and motivations
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u stanju da prelome
preko svojih predrasuda,
preko svojih predrasuda,
naklonosti i motivacija
08:42
and just try to see the facts
and the evidence
and the evidence
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i samo pokušavaju da vide
činjenice i dokaze
činjenice i dokaze
što objektivnije mogu?
08:45
as objectively as they can?
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08:47
And the answer is emotional.
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Odgovor je emocionalan.
08:51
So, just as soldier mindset
is rooted in emotions
is rooted in emotions
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Dakle, baš kao što vojnički mentalni sklop
ima korene u emocijama
kao što su defanzivnost ili tribalizam,
kao što su defanzivnost ili tribalizam,
08:54
like defensiveness or tribalism,
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isto tako je i izviđački.
08:58
scout mindset is, too.
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Samo je ukorenjen u drugačijim emocijama.
09:00
It's just rooted in different emotions.
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09:02
For example, scouts are curious.
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Na primer, izviđači su radoznali.
09:05
They're more likely to say
they feel pleasure
they feel pleasure
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Više su skloni da kažu
da osećaju zadovoljstvo
da osećaju zadovoljstvo
09:09
when they learn new information
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kada nauče novu informaciju
ili osete želju da reše zagonetku.
09:10
or an itch to solve a puzzle.
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09:13
They're more likely to feel intrigued
when they encounter something
when they encounter something
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Imaju više sklonosti da ih zaintrigira
kada naiđu na nešto
kada naiđu na nešto
09:16
that contradicts their expectations.
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što se suprotstavlja
njihovim očekivanjima.
njihovim očekivanjima.
Izviđači takođe imaju drugačije vrednosti.
09:19
Scouts also have different values.
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09:21
They're more likely to say
they think it's virtuous
they think it's virtuous
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Veća je šansa da će reći
da smatraju za vrlinu
da smatraju za vrlinu
09:24
to test your own beliefs,
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ispitivanje svojih uverenja,
09:25
and they're less likely to say
that someone who changes his mind
that someone who changes his mind
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i manja je šansa da će reći
da neko ko se predomisli deluje slabo.
da neko ko se predomisli deluje slabo.
09:29
seems weak.
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09:30
And above all, scouts are grounded,
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Pre svega, izviđači su prizemni,
09:32
which means their self-worth as a person
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što znači da njihovo samovrednovanje
kao osobe nije vezano
kao osobe nije vezano
09:36
isn't tied to how right or wrong
they are about any particular topic.
they are about any particular topic.
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za to koliko su u pravu ili greše
u pogledu neke određene teme.
u pogledu neke određene teme.
09:42
So they can believe
that capital punishment works.
that capital punishment works.
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Tako mogu da veruju
da smrtna kazna deluje.
da smrtna kazna deluje.
Ako se pojave istraživanja koja pokazuju
da ne deluje, mogu da kažu:
da ne deluje, mogu da kažu:
09:45
If studies come out showing
that it doesn't, they can say,
that it doesn't, they can say,
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09:48
"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong.
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."
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„Izgleda da možda nisam u pravu.
To ne znači da sam loš ili glup.“
To ne znači da sam loš ili glup.“
09:53
This cluster of traits
is what researchers have found --
is what researchers have found --
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Za ovu grupu osobina
su istraživači pronašli -
su istraživači pronašli -
a i ja sam pronašla kroz anegdote -
09:58
and I've also found anecdotally --
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10:00
predicts good judgment.
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da predviđaju dobro prosuđivanje.
Glavna stvar u vezi sa tim osobinama,
sa kojom bih da vas napustim,
sa kojom bih da vas napustim,
10:02
And the key takeaway I want
to leave you with about those traits
to leave you with about those traits
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jeste da se prvenstveno ne odnose
na to koliko ste pametni
na to koliko ste pametni
10:05
is that they're primarily
not about how smart you are
not about how smart you are
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10:09
or about how much you know.
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ili koliko toga znate.
10:11
In fact, they don't correlate
very much with IQ at all.
very much with IQ at all.
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Zapravo, uopšte ne koreliraju
naročito sa IQ-om.
naročito sa IQ-om.
10:14
They're about how you feel.
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Odnose se na to kako osećate.
10:16
There's a quote that I keep
coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.
coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.
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Postoji citat na koji se uvek vraćam,
koji je napisao Sent Egziperi.
koji je napisao Sent Egziperi.
10:20
He's the author of "The Little Prince."
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On je autor „Malog princa“.
10:22
He said, "If you want to build a ship,
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Rekao je: „Ako hoćete da izgradite brod,
ne terajte svoje ljude
da skupljaju drva, da naređuju
da skupljaju drva, da naređuju
10:26
don't drum up your men
to collect wood and give orders
to collect wood and give orders
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i raspodeljuju posao.
10:30
and distribute the work.
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Umesto toga ih naučite da žude
za velikim i beskrajnim morem.“
za velikim i beskrajnim morem.“
10:32
Instead, teach them to yearn
for the vast and endless sea."
for the vast and endless sea."
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Drugim rečima, tvrdim,
10:38
In other words, I claim,
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ako zaista želimo da poboljšamo
naše rasuđivanje kao pojedinci
naše rasuđivanje kao pojedinci
10:40
if we really want to improve
our judgment as individuals
our judgment as individuals
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i kao društva,
10:44
and as societies,
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10:45
what we need most
is not more instruction in logic
is not more instruction in logic
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ono što nam je najviše potrebno
nisu dodatna uputstva iz oblasti logike,
nisu dodatna uputstva iz oblasti logike,
10:49
or rhetoric or probability or economics,
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retorike, verovatnoće ili ekonomije,
10:52
even though those things
are quite valuable.
are quite valuable.
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mada su te stvari prilično korisne.
10:54
But what we most need
to use those principles well
to use those principles well
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Ono što nam je najviše potrebno
da bismo dobro koristili te principe
da bismo dobro koristili te principe
10:58
is scout mindset.
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je izviđački mentalni sklop.
10:59
We need to change the way we feel.
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Treba da promenimo
način na koji se osećamo.
način na koji se osećamo.
11:01
We need to learn how to feel proud
instead of ashamed
instead of ashamed
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Potrebno je da naučimo
kako da se osećamo ponosno
kako da se osećamo ponosno
umesto posramljeno kada primetimo
da smo možda pogrešili u vezi sa nečim.
da smo možda pogrešili u vezi sa nečim.
11:05
when we notice we might
have been wrong about something.
have been wrong about something.
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Treba da naučimo kako da se osećamo
zaintrigirano umesto defanzivno
zaintrigirano umesto defanzivno
11:08
We need to learn how to feel intrigued
instead of defensive
instead of defensive
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11:11
when we encounter some information
that contradicts our beliefs.
that contradicts our beliefs.
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kada naiđemo na neku informaciju
koja protivreči našim uverenjima.
koja protivreči našim uverenjima.
11:16
So the question I want
to leave you with is:
to leave you with is:
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Dakle, pitanje sa kojim želim
da vas napustim je:
da vas napustim je:
11:19
What do you most yearn for?
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za čim najviše žudite?
11:22
Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?
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Da li žudite da odbranite svoja uverenja?
11:26
Or do you yearn to see the world
as clearly as you possibly can?
as clearly as you possibly can?
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Ili žudite da vidite svet
što je jasnije moguće?
što je jasnije moguće?
11:30
Thank you.
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Hvala.
(Aplauz)
11:31
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julia Galef - WriterJulia Galef investigates how and why people change their minds.
Why you should listen
Julia Galef co-founded the Center for Applied Rationality, a nonprofit organization devoted to helping people improve their reasoning and decision-making, particularly with the aim of addressing global problems. Julia’s background is originally in statistics, and she did social science research at Columbia and Harvard Business Schools for several years before becoming a writer for venues such as Slate, Science, Scientific American and more. For the last six years, Julia has hosted the Rationally Speaking podcast.
Julia Galef | Speaker | TED.com