TEDxPSU
Julia Galef: Why you think you're right -- even if you're wrong
Julia Galef: Zašto mislite da ste u pravu -- čak i kada niste
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Perspektiva je sve, posebno kada se radi o preispitivanju vaših uvjerenja. Jeste li vojnik, koji je sklon obrani svojeg stajališta pod svaku cijenu -- ili ste izviđač, koji je potaknut znatiželjom? Julia Galef istražuje motive koji stoje iza ta dva načina razmišljanja i kako oblikuju način na koji tumačimo informacije, a sve je to isprepleteno s lekcijom iz povijesti iz Francuske 19. stoljeća. Kada se preispituju vaši čvrsti stavovi, Galef upita "Za čim najviše čeznete? Čeznete li za obranom svojih uvjerenja ili čeznete vidjeti svijet što je jasnije moguće?"
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So I'd like you to imagine for a moment
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Željela bih da na trenutak zamislite
00:15
that you're a soldier
in the heat of battle.
in the heat of battle.
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da ste vojnik u žaru borbe.
00:18
Maybe you're a Roman foot soldier
or a medieval archer
or a medieval archer
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Možda ste rimski vojnik-pješak
ili srednjovjekovni strijelac
ili srednjovjekovni strijelac
00:22
or maybe you're a Zulu warrior.
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ili možda Zulu ratnik.
00:24
Regardless of your time and place,
there are some things that are constant.
there are some things that are constant.
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Bez obzira na vrijeme i mjesto,
ima nekih stvari koje su nepromjenjive.
ima nekih stvari koje su nepromjenjive.
00:28
Your adrenaline is elevated,
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Vaš adrenalin je povišen,
00:30
and your actions are stemming
from these deeply ingrained reflexes,
from these deeply ingrained reflexes,
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a vaši postupci proizlaze iz tih
duboko ukorijenjenih refleksa,
duboko ukorijenjenih refleksa,
00:35
reflexes rooted in a need
to protect yourself and your side
to protect yourself and your side
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refleksa koji su ukorijenjeni u potrebi
da zaštitite sebe i svoju stranu
da zaštitite sebe i svoju stranu
00:39
and to defeat the enemy.
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i da porazite neprijatelja.
00:42
So now, I'd like you to imagine
playing a very different role,
playing a very different role,
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Sada bih htjela da se zamislite
u vrlo drugačijoj ulozi,
u vrlo drugačijoj ulozi,
00:46
that of the scout.
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u ulozi izviđača.
00:48
The scout's job is not
to attack or defend.
to attack or defend.
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Posao izviđača nije napad ili obrana.
00:51
The scout's job is to understand.
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Posao izviđača je razumijevanje.
00:54
The scout is the one going out,
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Izviđač je onaj koji izlazi van,
00:56
mapping the terrain,
identifying potential obstacles.
identifying potential obstacles.
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mapira teren,
utvrđuje moguće prepreke.
utvrđuje moguće prepreke.
01:00
And the scout may hope to learn
that, say, there's a bridge
that, say, there's a bridge
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Izviđač se može nadati da će
saznati da, recimo, postoji most
saznati da, recimo, postoji most
01:04
in a convenient location across a river.
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na povoljnom mjestu preko rijeke.
01:06
But above all, the scout
wants to know what's really there,
wants to know what's really there,
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No, povrh svega, izviđač želi znati
čega tamo stvarno ima
čega tamo stvarno ima
01:09
as accurately as possible.
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što je točnije moguće.
01:12
And in a real, actual army, both
the soldier and the scout are essential.
the soldier and the scout are essential.
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I u stvarnoj, pravoj vojsci
i vojnik i izviđač su ključni.
i vojnik i izviđač su ključni.
01:17
But you can also think of each
of these roles as a mindset --
of these roles as a mindset --
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Ali također možete smatrati
svaku od uloga kao način razmišljanja --
svaku od uloga kao način razmišljanja --
01:22
a metaphor for how all of us
process information and ideas
process information and ideas
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metaforu za to kako mi svi
obrađujemo informacije i ideje
obrađujemo informacije i ideje
01:26
in our daily lives.
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u našim svakodnevnim životima.
01:28
What I'm going to argue today
is that having good judgment,
is that having good judgment,
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Ono što ću obrazložiti danas jest
da dobra prosudba,
da dobra prosudba,
01:32
making accurate predictions,
making good decisions,
making good decisions,
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točno predviđanje i
donošenje dobrih odluka
donošenje dobrih odluka
01:35
is mostly about which mindset you're in.
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ovisi o tome kakav
način razmišljanja imate.
način razmišljanja imate.
01:38
To illustrate these mindsets in action,
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Kako bih vam prikazala
te načine razmišljanja u praksi,
te načine razmišljanja u praksi,
01:41
I'm going to take you back
to 19th-century France,
to 19th-century France,
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odvest ću vas u Francusku 19. stoljeća
01:45
where this innocuous-looking
piece of paper
piece of paper
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gdje je ovaj komad papira
bezazlenog izgleda
bezazlenog izgleda
01:48
launched one of the biggest
political scandals in history.
political scandals in history.
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pokrenuo jedan od najvećih
političkih skandala u povijesti.
političkih skandala u povijesti.
01:51
It was discovered in 1894
by officers in the French general staff.
by officers in the French general staff.
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Otkrili su ga časnici u francuskom
generalnom stožeru u 1894.
generalnom stožeru u 1894.
01:56
It was torn up in a wastepaper basket,
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Bio je rastrgan u kanti za smeće,
01:59
but when they pieced it back together,
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ali kada su ga sastavili,
02:01
they discovered
that someone in their ranks
that someone in their ranks
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otkrili su da je netko iz njihovih redova
02:03
had been selling
military secrets to Germany.
military secrets to Germany.
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Njemačkoj prodavao vojne tajne.
02:06
So they launched a big investigation,
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Pa su pokrenuli veliku istragu,
02:08
and their suspicions
quickly converged on this man,
quickly converged on this man,
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a njihove sumnje su bile
brzo usmjerene na ovog čovjeka,
brzo usmjerene na ovog čovjeka,
02:12
Alfred Dreyfus.
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Alfreda Dreyfusa.
02:14
He had a sterling record,
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Imao je izvanredan dosje,
02:16
no past history of wrongdoing,
no motive as far as they could tell.
no motive as far as they could tell.
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nikakve prethodne prijestupe,
nikakav motiv, kako im se činilo.
nikakav motiv, kako im se činilo.
02:20
But Dreyfus was the only
Jewish officer at that rank in the army,
Jewish officer at that rank in the army,
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Ali je Dreyfus bio jedini židovski
časnik toga reda u vojsci,
časnik toga reda u vojsci,
02:25
and unfortunately at this time,
the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.
the French Army was highly anti-Semitic.
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a nažalost, u to je vrijeme francuska
vojska bila vrlo antisemitska.
vojska bila vrlo antisemitska.
02:29
They compared Dreyfus's handwriting
to that on the memo
to that on the memo
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Usporedili su Dreyfusov
rukopis s tim dopisom
rukopis s tim dopisom
02:32
and concluded that it was a match,
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i zaključili da se podudaraju
02:34
even though outside
professional handwriting experts
professional handwriting experts
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iako vanjski profesionalni
stručnjaci za rukopis
stručnjaci za rukopis
02:37
were much less confident
in the similarity,
in the similarity,
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nisu baš bili sigurni u sličnost,
02:40
but never mind that.
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ali to nije važno.
02:41
They went and searched
Dreyfus's apartment,
Dreyfus's apartment,
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Pretražili su Dreyfusov stan
02:43
looking for any signs of espionage.
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tražeći bilo kakve znakove špijunaže.
02:45
They went through his files,
and they didn't find anything.
and they didn't find anything.
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Pregledali su mu spise
i nisu ništa našli.
i nisu ništa našli.
02:48
This just convinced them more
that Dreyfus was not only guilty,
that Dreyfus was not only guilty,
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To ih je samo uvjerilo još više da
Dreyfus nije samo kriv,
Dreyfus nije samo kriv,
02:51
but sneaky as well, because clearly
he had hidden all of the evidence
he had hidden all of the evidence
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nego je i lukav jer je
očito sakrio sve dokaze
očito sakrio sve dokaze
02:54
before they had managed to get to it.
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prije nego što su ih oni uspjeli naći.
02:57
Next, they went and looked
through his personal history
through his personal history
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Nakon toga, pretražili su
njegovu osobnu povijest
njegovu osobnu povijest
02:59
for any incriminating details.
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zbog okrivljujućih detalja.
03:02
They talked to his teachers,
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Razgovarali su s učiteljima,
03:03
they found that he had studied
foreign languages in school,
foreign languages in school,
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i saznali su da je
učio strane jezike u školi
učio strane jezike u školi
03:06
which clearly showed a desire
to conspire with foreign governments
to conspire with foreign governments
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što očito pokazuje želju za
zavjerom sa stranim vladama
zavjerom sa stranim vladama
03:10
later in life.
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kasnije u životu.
03:11
His teachers also said that Dreyfus
was known for having a good memory,
was known for having a good memory,
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Njegovi učitelji su rekli da je
Dreyfus bio poznat po dobrom pamćenju,
Dreyfus bio poznat po dobrom pamćenju,
03:18
which was highly suspicious, right?
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što je vrlo sumnjivo, zar ne?
03:20
You know, because a spy
has to remember a lot of things.
has to remember a lot of things.
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Zato što špijun mora
zapamtiti mnogo stvari.
zapamtiti mnogo stvari.
03:24
So the case went to trial,
and Dreyfus was found guilty.
and Dreyfus was found guilty.
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Pa je slučaj završio na sudu
i Dreyfus je osuđen.
i Dreyfus je osuđen.
03:28
Afterwards, they took him out
into this public square
into this public square
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Nakon toga, izveli su ga na neki javni trg
03:32
and ritualistically tore
his insignia from his uniform
his insignia from his uniform
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i ritualno strgnuli znamenje s uniforme
03:35
and broke his sword in two.
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te razlomili mač na dva dijela.
03:37
This was called
the Degradation of Dreyfus.
the Degradation of Dreyfus.
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To se nazvalo Ponižavanje Drayfusa.
03:40
And they sentenced him
to life imprisonment
to life imprisonment
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Pa su ga osudili na doživotni zatvor
03:43
on the aptly named Devil's Island,
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na prikladno nazvanom Vražjem otoku,
03:46
which is this barren rock
off the coast of South America.
off the coast of South America.
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koji je gola stijena
blizu obale Južne Amerike.
blizu obale Južne Amerike.
03:49
So there he went,
and there he spent his days alone,
and there he spent his days alone,
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Tamo je otišao i
tamo je svoje dane proveo sam,
tamo je svoje dane proveo sam,
03:53
writing letters and letters
to the French government
to the French government
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pišući pisma i pisma
francuskoj vladi u kojima ih je
francuskoj vladi u kojima ih je
03:55
begging them to reopen his case
so they could discover his innocence.
so they could discover his innocence.
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molio da ponovno otvore
njegov slučaj kako bi otkrili da je nevin.
njegov slučaj kako bi otkrili da je nevin.
03:59
But for the most part,
France considered the matter closed.
France considered the matter closed.
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Ali uglavnom je Francuska
to smatrala završenim slučajem.
to smatrala završenim slučajem.
04:03
One thing that's really interesting
to me about the Dreyfus Affair
to me about the Dreyfus Affair
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Jedna stvar koja mi je
zaista zanimljiva o aferi Dreyfus
zaista zanimljiva o aferi Dreyfus
04:07
is this question of why the officers
were so convinced
were so convinced
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jest pitanje zašto su
časnici bili toliko uvjereni
časnici bili toliko uvjereni
04:11
that Dreyfus was guilty.
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da je Dreyfus bio kriv.
04:13
I mean, you might even assume
that they were setting him up,
that they were setting him up,
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Mogli biste čak pretpostaviti
da su mu smjestili,
da su mu smjestili,
04:16
that they were intentionally framing him.
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da su mu namjerno podmetnuli.
04:18
But historians don't think
that's what happened.
that's what happened.
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Ali povjesničari ne misle
da se to dogodilo
da se to dogodilo
04:20
As far as we can tell,
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Koliko znamo,
04:21
the officers genuinely believed
that the case against Dreyfus was strong.
that the case against Dreyfus was strong.
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časnici su stvarno mislili da
imaju jak slučaj protiv Dreyfusa.
imaju jak slučaj protiv Dreyfusa.
04:26
Which makes you wonder:
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Zbog čega vam dođe da se zapitate:
04:28
What does it say about the human mind
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Što to govori o ljudskom umu
04:30
that we can find such paltry evidence
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da možemo smatrati takav loš dokaz
04:33
to be compelling enough to convict a man?
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dovoljno uvjerljivim da se osudi čovjeka?
04:36
Well, this is a case of what scientists
call "motivated reasoning."
call "motivated reasoning."
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Dakle, ovo je primjer onoga što
znanstvenici zovu "motivirano rasuđivanje"
znanstvenici zovu "motivirano rasuđivanje"
04:40
It's this phenomenon in which
our unconscious motivations,
our unconscious motivations,
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To je pojava u kojoj
naši podsvjesni motivi,
naši podsvjesni motivi,
04:43
our desires and fears,
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naše želje i strahovi
04:45
shape the way we interpret information.
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oblikuju način na koji
tumačimo informacije.
tumačimo informacije.
04:48
Some information, some ideas,
feel like our allies.
feel like our allies.
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Neke informacije, neke ideje
čine se kao naši saveznici.
čine se kao naši saveznici.
04:51
We want them to win.
We want to defend them.
We want to defend them.
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Želimo da pobjede.
Želimo ih braniti.
Želimo ih braniti.
04:54
And other information
or ideas are the enemy,
or ideas are the enemy,
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A druge informacije
ili ideje su neprijatelj
ili ideje su neprijatelj
04:56
and we want to shoot them down.
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i želimo ih upucati.
04:59
So this is why I call
motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."
motivated reasoning, "soldier mindset."
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Zato "motivirano rasuđivanje"
nazivam vojničkim načinom razmišljanja.
nazivam vojničkim načinom razmišljanja.
05:03
Probably most of you have never persecuted
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Vjerojatno većina vas nikad nije progonila
05:07
a French-Jewish officer for high treason,
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francusko-židovskog časnika
zbog veleizdaje.
zbog veleizdaje.
05:09
I assume,
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Pretpostavljam,
05:10
but maybe you've followed sports
or politics, so you might have noticed
or politics, so you might have noticed
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ali možda pratite sportove ili
politiku pa ste mogli primijetiti
politiku pa ste mogli primijetiti
05:15
that when the referee judges
that your team committed a foul,
that your team committed a foul,
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da, kada sudac presudi da je
vaša ekipa napravila prekršaj,
vaša ekipa napravila prekršaj,
05:19
for example,
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na primjer,
05:21
you're highly motivated
to find reasons why he's wrong.
to find reasons why he's wrong.
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vrlo ste motivirani da nađete
razloge zašto je u krivu.
razloge zašto je u krivu.
05:24
But if he judges that the other team
committed a foul -- awesome!
committed a foul -- awesome!
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Ali ako presudi da je druga ekipa
napravila prekršaj -- odlično!
napravila prekršaj -- odlično!
05:27
That's a good call,
let's not examine it too closely.
let's not examine it too closely.
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To je dobra odluka,
nećemo je pobliže preispitivati.
nećemo je pobliže preispitivati.
05:30
Or, maybe you've read
an article or a study
an article or a study
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Ili možda ste čitali članak
ili istraživanje
ili istraživanje
05:32
that examined some controversial policy,
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koji proučavaju neku
kontroverznu politiku,
kontroverznu politiku,
05:35
like capital punishment.
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kao što je smrtna kazna.
05:37
And, as researchers have demonstrated,
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Kao što su istraživači prikazali,
05:39
if you support capital punishment
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ako podupirete smrtnu kaznu
05:41
and the study shows
that it's not effective,
that it's not effective,
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i istraživanje pokaže da
ona nije djelotvorna,
ona nije djelotvorna,
05:44
then you're highly motivated
to find all the reasons
to find all the reasons
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onda ste vrlo motivirani da nađete razloge
05:47
why the study was poorly designed.
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zbog kojih je istraživanje loše provedeno.
05:49
But if it shows
that capital punishment works,
that capital punishment works,
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Ali ako prikaže da smrtna kazna djeluje,
05:51
it's a good study.
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to je dobro istraživanje.
05:53
And vice versa: if you don't
support capital punishment, same thing.
support capital punishment, same thing.
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I obrnuto: ako ne podupirete smrtnu kaznu, ista stvar.
05:56
Our judgment is strongly
influenced, unconsciously,
influenced, unconsciously,
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Naše rasuđivanje je pod
jakim utjecajem, nesvjesno
jakim utjecajem, nesvjesno
05:59
by which side we want to win.
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ovisno o tome za koju stranu
želimo da pobijedi.
želimo da pobijedi.
06:02
And this is ubiquitous.
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I to je sveprisutno.
06:03
This shapes how we think
about our health, our relationships,
about our health, our relationships,
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Ono oblikuje kako razmišljamo
o svojem zdravlju, našim vezama,
o svojem zdravlju, našim vezama,
06:07
how we decide how to vote,
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kako odlučujemo glasovati,
06:08
what we consider fair or ethical.
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što smatramo da je pravedno ili etično.
06:12
What's most scary to me
about motivated reasoning
about motivated reasoning
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Što me najviše straši
u vezi s motiviranim rasuđivanjem
u vezi s motiviranim rasuđivanjem
06:14
or soldier mindset,
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ili vojničkim načinom rasuđivanja
06:15
is how unconscious it is.
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jest koliko je nesvjesno.
06:17
We can think we're being
objective and fair-minded
objective and fair-minded
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Možemo misliti da smo
objektivni ili pravedni
objektivni ili pravedni
06:20
and still wind up ruining the life
of an innocent man.
of an innocent man.
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i još uvijek uništiti
život nevinog čovjeka.
život nevinog čovjeka.
06:25
However, fortunately for Dreyfus,
his story is not over.
his story is not over.
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Međutim, na Dreyfusovu sreću,
njegova priča još nije gotova.
njegova priča još nije gotova.
06:27
This is Colonel Picquart.
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Ovo je pukovnik Picquart.
06:29
He's another high-ranking officer
in the French Army,
in the French Army,
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On je još jedan visoki
časnik u francuskoj vojsci.
časnik u francuskoj vojsci.
06:31
and like most people,
he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.
he assumed Dreyfus was guilty.
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I kao većina ljudi, pretpostavio
je da je Dreyfus kriv.
je da je Dreyfus kriv.
06:34
Also like most people in the army,
he was at least casually anti-Semitic.
he was at least casually anti-Semitic.
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Kao i većina ljudi u vojci,
bio je barem ležerno antisemitist.
bio je barem ležerno antisemitist.
06:39
But at a certain point,
Picquart began to suspect:
Picquart began to suspect:
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Ali u jednom trenutku
Picquart je počeo sumnjati:
Picquart je počeo sumnjati:
06:43
"What if we're all wrong about Dreyfus?"
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"Što ako smo svi u krivu
u vezi s Dreyfusom?"
u vezi s Dreyfusom?"
06:46
What happened was,
he had discovered evidence
he had discovered evidence
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Ono što se dogodilo
jest da je pronašao dokaze
jest da je pronašao dokaze
06:48
that the spying for Germany had continued,
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da se špijuniranje za Njemačku nastavilo,
06:51
even after Dreyfus was in prison.
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čak i nakon što je Dreyfus bio u zatvoru.
06:53
And he had also discovered
that another officer in the army
that another officer in the army
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Otkrio je i da je drugi časnik u vojsci
06:56
had handwriting that perfectly
matched the memo,
matched the memo,
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imao rukopis koji savršeno odgovara dopisu
06:59
much closer than Dreyfus's handwriting.
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bolje nego Dreyfusov rukopis.
07:02
So he brought these discoveries
to his superiors,
to his superiors,
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Pa je odnio svoja otkrića
svojim nadređenima,
svojim nadređenima,
07:06
but to his dismay,
they either didn't care
they either didn't care
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ali na njegovo zaprepaštenje,
oni ili nisu marili
oni ili nisu marili
07:09
or came up with elaborate rationalizations
to explain his findings,
to explain his findings,
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ili su izmislili razrađene racionalizacije
da bi objasnili njegova saznanja,
da bi objasnili njegova saznanja,
07:13
like, "Well, all you've really shown,
Picquart, is that there's another spy
Picquart, is that there's another spy
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poput, "Sve što si dokazao, Picquart,
jest da postoji još jedan špijun
jest da postoji još jedan špijun
07:18
who learned how to mimic
Dreyfus's handwriting,
Dreyfus's handwriting,
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koji je naučio oponašati Dreyfusov rukopis
07:21
and he picked up the torch of spying
after Dreyfus left.
after Dreyfus left.
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i on je nastavio špijunirati
nakon što je Dreyfus otišao.
nakon što je Dreyfus otišao.
07:25
But Dreyfus is still guilty."
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Ali Dreyfus je i dalje kriv."
07:27
Eventually, Picquart managed
to get Dreyfus exonerated.
to get Dreyfus exonerated.
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Na kraju, Picquartu je
uspjelo osloboditi Dreyfusa.
uspjelo osloboditi Dreyfusa.
07:30
But it took him 10 years,
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Ali trebalo mu je 10 godina
07:32
and for part of that time,
he himself was in prison
he himself was in prison
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i dio tog vremena on je sam bio u zatvoru
07:35
for the crime of disloyalty to the army.
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zbog nelojalnosti vojsci.
07:38
A lot of people feel like Picquart
can't really be the hero of this story
can't really be the hero of this story
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Mnogo ljudi smatra da Picquart
ne može stvarno biti junak ove priče
ne može stvarno biti junak ove priče
07:44
because he was an anti-Semite
and that's bad, which I agree with.
and that's bad, which I agree with.
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jer je bio antisemitist
i to je loše, s čime se slažem.
i to je loše, s čime se slažem.
07:49
But personally, for me,
the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic
the fact that Picquart was anti-Semitic
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Ali osobno, za mene, činjenica
da je Picquart bio antisemitist
da je Picquart bio antisemitist
07:53
actually makes his actions more admirable,
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zapravo njegova djela
čini zadivljujućima
čini zadivljujućima
07:56
because he had the same prejudices,
the same reasons to be biased
the same reasons to be biased
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jer je imao jednake predrasude,
jednake razloge da bude pristran
jednake razloge da bude pristran
07:59
as his fellow officers,
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kao njegovi kolege časnici,
08:01
but his motivation to find the truth
and uphold it trumped all of that.
and uphold it trumped all of that.
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ali je njegova motivacija da sazna istinu
i podrži je prevladala sve to
i podrži je prevladala sve to
08:07
So to me,
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Pa za mene,
08:08
Picquart is a poster child
for what I call "scout mindset."
for what I call "scout mindset."
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Picquart je primjer za ono što
nazivam "izviđačkim načinom razmišljanja".
nazivam "izviđačkim načinom razmišljanja".
08:12
It's the drive not to make
one idea win or another lose,
one idea win or another lose,
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To je poticaj da ideja
ne pobijedi niti izgubi,
ne pobijedi niti izgubi,
08:16
but just to see what's really there
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nego da vidite čega zaista ima
08:18
as honestly and accurately as you can,
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što je iskrenije i točnije moguće,
08:21
even if it's not pretty
or convenient or pleasant.
or convenient or pleasant.
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čak i ako nije lijepo
ili povoljno ili ugodno.
ili povoljno ili ugodno.
08:25
This mindset is what
I'm personally passionate about.
I'm personally passionate about.
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U pogledu ovog načina
razmišljanja sam vrlo strastvena.
razmišljanja sam vrlo strastvena.
08:28
And I've spent the last few years
examining and trying to figure out
examining and trying to figure out
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Provela sam posljednjih par godina
proučavajući i pokušavajući shvatiti što
proučavajući i pokušavajući shvatiti što
08:33
what causes scout mindset.
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uzrokuje izviđački način razmišljanja.
08:35
Why are some people, sometimes at least,
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Zašto su neki ljudi, barem ponekad
08:39
able to cut through their own prejudices
and biases and motivations
and biases and motivations
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sposobni prevladati svoje
predrasude, pristranost i motive
predrasude, pristranost i motive
08:42
and just try to see the facts
and the evidence
and the evidence
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i samo pokušati vidjeti činjenice i dokaze
08:45
as objectively as they can?
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što je objektivnije moguće?
08:47
And the answer is emotional.
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I odgovor je u emocijama.
08:51
So, just as soldier mindset
is rooted in emotions
is rooted in emotions
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Baš kao što je vojniči način
razmišljanja ukorijenjen u emocijama,
razmišljanja ukorijenjen u emocijama,
08:54
like defensiveness or tribalism,
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poput obrambenosti ili
plemenske pripadnosti, i
plemenske pripadnosti, i
08:58
scout mindset is, too.
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izviđački način razmišljanja
09:00
It's just rooted in different emotions.
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ukorijenjen je u različitim emocijama.
09:02
For example, scouts are curious.
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Na primjer, izviđači su znatiželjni
09:05
They're more likely to say
they feel pleasure
they feel pleasure
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Vjerojatnije će reći da osjećaju ugodu
09:09
when they learn new information
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kada nauče nove informacije
09:10
or an itch to solve a puzzle.
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ili potrebu da riješe zagonetku.
09:13
They're more likely to feel intrigued
when they encounter something
when they encounter something
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Vjerojatnije je da će biti
zainteresirani kada naiđu na nešto
zainteresirani kada naiđu na nešto
09:16
that contradicts their expectations.
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što je suprotno njihovim očekivanjima.
09:19
Scouts also have different values.
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Izviđači imaju i
različite vrijednosti.
različite vrijednosti.
09:21
They're more likely to say
they think it's virtuous
they think it's virtuous
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Vjerojatnije će reći da
misle da je kreposno
misle da je kreposno
09:24
to test your own beliefs,
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preispitivati svoja uvjerenja
09:25
and they're less likely to say
that someone who changes his mind
that someone who changes his mind
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i vjerojatno neće reći da se
netko tko promijeni mišljenje
netko tko promijeni mišljenje
09:29
seems weak.
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čini slabim.
09:30
And above all, scouts are grounded,
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Povrh svega, izviđači stoje na zemlji,
09:32
which means their self-worth as a person
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što znači da njihovo samopoštovanje
09:36
isn't tied to how right or wrong
they are about any particular topic.
they are about any particular topic.
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nije povezano s tim koliko su u pravu
ili u krivu u vezi s određenom temom.
ili u krivu u vezi s određenom temom.
09:42
So they can believe
that capital punishment works.
that capital punishment works.
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Pa mogu vjerovati da smrtna kazna djeluje.
09:45
If studies come out showing
that it doesn't, they can say,
that it doesn't, they can say,
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Ako istraživanja pokažu
da to nije tako, mogu reći,
da to nije tako, mogu reći,
09:48
"Huh. Looks like I might be wrong.
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."
Doesn't mean I'm bad or stupid."
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"Hm, izgleda da sam bio u krivu.
To ne znači da sam loš ili glup."
To ne znači da sam loš ili glup."
09:53
This cluster of traits
is what researchers have found --
is what researchers have found --
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Ovaj skup osobina je ono
što su istraživači otkrili --
što su istraživači otkrili --
09:58
and I've also found anecdotally --
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a i ja sam otkrila iz anegdota --
10:00
predicts good judgment.
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da predviđa dobro rasuđivanje.
10:02
And the key takeaway I want
to leave you with about those traits
to leave you with about those traits
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A ključna pouka koju vam želim
prenijeti o ovim osobinama
prenijeti o ovim osobinama
10:05
is that they're primarily
not about how smart you are
not about how smart you are
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jest da se ne odnose ponajprije
na to koliko ste pametni
na to koliko ste pametni
10:09
or about how much you know.
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ili koliko znate.
10:11
In fact, they don't correlate
very much with IQ at all.
very much with IQ at all.
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Zapravo, one nisu uopće
u korelaciji s IQ-om.
u korelaciji s IQ-om.
10:14
They're about how you feel.
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U vezi su s onim kako se osjećate.
10:16
There's a quote that I keep
coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.
coming back to, by Saint-Exupéry.
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Postoji citat Saint-Exupérya
kojem se stalno vraćam.
kojem se stalno vraćam.
10:20
He's the author of "The Little Prince."
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On je autor "Malog princa".
10:22
He said, "If you want to build a ship,
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Rekao je, "Ako želiš sagraditi brod,
10:26
don't drum up your men
to collect wood and give orders
to collect wood and give orders
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nemoj okupiti ljude da skupljaju
drvo i davati im naredbe
drvo i davati im naredbe
10:30
and distribute the work.
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i raspodijeliti posao.
10:32
Instead, teach them to yearn
for the vast and endless sea."
for the vast and endless sea."
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Umjesto toga, podučite ih da
žude za velikim i beskrajnim morem."
žude za velikim i beskrajnim morem."
10:38
In other words, I claim,
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Drugim riječima, smatram da,
10:40
if we really want to improve
our judgment as individuals
our judgment as individuals
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ako zaista želimo poboljšati
naše rasuđivanje kao pojedinaca
naše rasuđivanje kao pojedinaca
10:44
and as societies,
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i kao društva,
10:45
what we need most
is not more instruction in logic
is not more instruction in logic
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ono što najviše trebamo
nije poduka o logici
nije poduka o logici
10:49
or rhetoric or probability or economics,
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ili govorništvu ili
vjerojatnosti ili ekonomiji,
vjerojatnosti ili ekonomiji,
10:52
even though those things
are quite valuable.
are quite valuable.
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iako su te stvari vrlo vrijedne,
10:54
But what we most need
to use those principles well
to use those principles well
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Ali ono što nam najviše treba
da dobro iskoristimo ta načela je
da dobro iskoristimo ta načela je
10:58
is scout mindset.
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izviđački način razmišljanja.
10:59
We need to change the way we feel.
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Moramo promijeniti kako se osjećamo.
11:01
We need to learn how to feel proud
instead of ashamed
instead of ashamed
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Moramo naučiti kako da se osjećamo
ponosnima umjesto posramljenima
ponosnima umjesto posramljenima
11:05
when we notice we might
have been wrong about something.
have been wrong about something.
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kada primijetimo da smo
u vezi s nečime bili u krivu.
u vezi s nečime bili u krivu.
11:08
We need to learn how to feel intrigued
instead of defensive
instead of defensive
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Moramo naučiti kako da budemo
zainteresirani umjesto obrambeni
zainteresirani umjesto obrambeni
11:11
when we encounter some information
that contradicts our beliefs.
that contradicts our beliefs.
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kada naiđemo na informacije
koje su suprotne našim uvjerenjima.
koje su suprotne našim uvjerenjima.
11:16
So the question I want
to leave you with is:
to leave you with is:
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Pa je pitanje s kojim vas želim ostaviti:
11:19
What do you most yearn for?
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Za čime najviše čeznete?
11:22
Do you yearn to defend your own beliefs?
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Čeznete li za obranom svojih uvjerenja?
11:26
Or do you yearn to see the world
as clearly as you possibly can?
as clearly as you possibly can?
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Ili čeznete za tim da vidite
svijet što je jasnije moguće?
svijet što je jasnije moguće?
11:30
Thank you.
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Hvala.
11:31
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Julia Galef - WriterJulia Galef investigates how and why people change their minds.
Why you should listen
Julia Galef co-founded the Center for Applied Rationality, a nonprofit organization devoted to helping people improve their reasoning and decision-making, particularly with the aim of addressing global problems. Julia’s background is originally in statistics, and she did social science research at Columbia and Harvard Business Schools for several years before becoming a writer for venues such as Slate, Science, Scientific American and more. For the last six years, Julia has hosted the Rationally Speaking podcast.
Julia Galef | Speaker | TED.com