TEDGlobal 2014
Robert Muggah: How to protect fast-growing cities from failing
罗巴特·木伽: 如何防止快速发展的城市衰退
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暴力在全球范围内不断下降，但是在南部地区人满为患的城市里——譬如阿勒颇、巴马科、加拉加斯——暴力在不断的上升，毒品交易、高失业率、民间不安这些因素催化暴力的发生。安全调查员罗巴特·木伽将我们的注意力引向“脆弱城市”——一些高速发展的城市，但是这些城市的基础设施不成熟，政府常常低效。他讲述我们现今所面临的四大危机，并提供改善方案。
Robert Muggah - Megacities expert
Robert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally. Full bio
Robert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
We can cut violent deaths
around the world
around the world
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我们可以在未来三十年内
00:17
by 50 percent in the next three decades.
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将全球暴力性死亡率减半。
00:22
All we have to do
is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,
is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,
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我们只需将谋杀犯罪率
每年降低2.3%，
每年降低2.3%，
00:27
and we'll hit that target.
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并且我们可以做到。
00:29
You don't believe me?
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你不信我？
00:31
Well, the leading epidemiologists
and criminologists around the world
and criminologists around the world
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世界各地顶尖的流行病学家和犯罪学家
00:34
seem to think we can, and so do I,
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似乎认为我们做得到，我也认为做得到，
00:37
but only if we focus on our cities,
especially the most fragile ones.
especially the most fragile ones.
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但前提是我们关注城市，
特别是最为脆弱的城市。
特别是最为脆弱的城市。
00:42
You see, I've been thinking
about this a lot.
about this a lot.
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这是我一直关注的问题。
00:46
For the last 20 years, I've been working
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二十年来，我工作所处的国家和城市
00:48
in countries and cities
ripped apart by conflict,
ripped apart by conflict,
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都充斥着冲突、暴力、
00:51
violence, terrorism, or some
insidious combination of all.
insidious combination of all.
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恐怖主义，或者样样皆由。
00:55
I've tracked gun smugglers
from Russia to Somalia,
from Russia to Somalia,
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我曾经跟踪枪械走私分子
从俄罗斯跟踪到索马里，
从俄罗斯跟踪到索马里，
00:59
I've worked with warlords
in Afghanistan and the Congo,
in Afghanistan and the Congo,
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我曾经与阿富汗和刚果的军阀合作，
01:02
I've counted cadavers in Colombia, in
Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.
Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.
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我曾在哥伦比亚、海地、斯里兰卡、
巴布亚新几内亚，清点尸体数量。
巴布亚新几内亚，清点尸体数量。
01:08
You don't need to be
on the front line, though,
on the front line, though,
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话虽如此，你不需要身处战争前线，
01:10
to get a sense that our planet
is spinning out of control, right?
is spinning out of control, right?
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才感觉到我们的星球正失去控制，是吧？
01:13
There's this feeling that international
instability is the new normal.
instability is the new normal.
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大家明显都感觉到，
国际动荡是新常态。
国际动荡是新常态。
01:18
But I want you to take a closer look,
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但我希望大家深入观察，
01:20
and I think you'll see that
the geography of violence is changing,
the geography of violence is changing,
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就会看到暴力的地理面貌正在改变，
01:23
because it's not so much our nation states
that are gripped by conflict and crime
that are gripped by conflict and crime
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因为被冲突和犯罪操控的，
不是我们的国家，
不是我们的国家，
01:27
as our cities: Aleppo, Bamako, Caracas,
Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
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而是城市：阿勒颇、巴马科、加拉加斯、
埃尔比勒、摩苏尔、的黎波里、萨尔瓦多。
埃尔比勒、摩苏尔、的黎波里、萨尔瓦多。
01:35
Violence is migrating to the metropole.
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暴力正向大都市迁移。
01:38
And maybe this is to be expected, right?
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也许这是预料之中的事，对吧？
01:40
After all, most people today,
they live in cities, not the countryside.
they live in cities, not the countryside.
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毕竟目前大部分人居住在城市，
而不是农村。
而不是农村。
01:44
Just 600 cities, including 30 megacities,
account for two thirds of global GDP.
account for two thirds of global GDP.
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600个城市，包括30个大城市，
就占了全球GDP的三分之二。
就占了全球GDP的三分之二。
01:50
But when it comes to cities,
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但说到城市，
01:52
the conversation is
dominated by the North,
dominated by the North,
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话题大都由北部地区主导，
01:55
that is, North America, Western Europe,
Australia and Japan,
Australia and Japan,
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所谓北部地区，
是指北美、西欧、澳洲和日本，
是指北美、西欧、澳洲和日本，
01:58
where violence is
actually at historic lows.
actually at historic lows.
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这些地区的暴力率
处于历史新低点。
处于历史新低点。
02:01
As a result, city enthusiasts, they talk
about the triumph of the city,
about the triumph of the city,
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因此，城市的热衷者聊的是
城市的胜利、
城市的胜利、
02:06
of the creative classes, and the mayors
that will rule the world.
that will rule the world.
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创新阶级的胜利、
说市长们会统治世界。
说市长们会统治世界。
02:10
Now, I hope that mayors
do one day rule the world,
do one day rule the world,
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我希望某天市长真会统治世界，
02:13
but, you know, the fact is,
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但是，事实是，
02:15
we don't hear any conversation, really,
about what is happening in the South.
about what is happening in the South.
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我们没有真正地听到
南部地区的声音和形势。
南部地区的声音和形势。
02:20
And by South, I mean
Latin America, Africa, Asia,
Latin America, Africa, Asia,
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所谓南部地区，我是指
拉丁美洲、非洲、亚洲
拉丁美洲、非洲、亚洲
02:24
where violence in some
cases is accelerating,
cases is accelerating,
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在这些地方，暴力不断加剧，
02:27
where infrastructure is overstretched,
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基础设施捉襟见肘，
02:29
and where governance is sometimes
an aspiration and not a reality.
an aspiration and not a reality.
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有时政府管理不过是理想，
难成现实。
难成现实。
02:34
Now, some diplomats
and development experts and specialists,
and development experts and specialists,
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目前，一些外交官、
发展专家、专业人士在关注
发展专家、专业人士在关注
02:38
they talk about 40 to 50 fragile states
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会决定21世纪安全的
四五十个脆弱城市。
四五十个脆弱城市。
02:41
that will shape security
in the 21st century.
in the 21st century.
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会决定21世纪安全的
四五十个脆弱城市。
四五十个脆弱城市。
02:44
I think it's fragile cities which will
define the future of order and disorder.
define the future of order and disorder.
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我认为，这些脆弱城市
会直接决定未来的秩序和稳定。
会直接决定未来的秩序和稳定。
02:50
That's because warfare
and humanitarian action
and humanitarian action
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因为战争和人道主义行动
02:53
are going to be
concentrated in our cities,
concentrated in our cities,
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将会集中发生在我们的城市，
02:55
and the fight for development,
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为发展而起的斗争，
02:57
whether you define that
as eradicating poverty,
as eradicating poverty,
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无论是消灭贫穷、
02:59
universal healthcare,
beating back climate change,
beating back climate change,
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普及医疗保健、还是击退气候变化，
03:02
will be won or lost in the shantytowns,
slums and favelas of our cities.
slums and favelas of our cities.
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成败关键都在于城市中的
破屋、残楼、贫民窟。
破屋、残楼、贫民窟。
03:07
I want to talk to you about four megarisks
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我想向大家介绍
03:10
that I think will define
fragility in our time,
fragility in our time,
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定义现时代脆弱性的四大危机，
03:13
and if we can get to grips with these,
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倘若我们能够处理这些危机，
03:16
I think we can do something
with that lethal violence problem.
with that lethal violence problem.
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我们就可以解决致命暴力问题。
03:18
So let me start with some good news.
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那么我们先由积极的谈起。
03:21
Fact is, we're living in the most
peaceful moment in human history.
peaceful moment in human history.
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事实是，我们现今生活在
人类历史上最和平的年代。
人类历史上最和平的年代。
03:26
Steven Pinker and others have shown how
the intensity and frequency of conflict
the intensity and frequency of conflict
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司提芬•朋克和其他人表明
现今冲突的强度和频率
现今冲突的强度和频率
03:30
is actually at an all-time low.
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是处于一个怎样的历史低点。
03:33
Now, Gaza, Syria, Sudan, Ukraine,
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目前，加沙、叙利亚、苏丹、乌克兰
03:37
as ghastly as these conflicts are,
and they are horrific,
and they are horrific,
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这些国家的冲突可怕恐怖，
03:41
they represent a relatively
small blip upwards
small blip upwards
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在暴力持续下降50年之后，
03:43
in a 50-year-long secular decline.
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这只是一个相对较小的往上攀升的点。
03:46
What's more, we're seeing
a dramatic reduction in homicide.
a dramatic reduction in homicide.
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此外，我们注意到凶杀案大大减少。
03:51
Manuel Eisner and others have shown
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曼纽尔•艾斯纳和其他人发现
03:53
that for centuries, we've seen
this incredible drop in murder,
this incredible drop in murder,
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凶杀案下降到令人难以置信的
数百年来的低点，
数百年来的低点，
03:57
especially in the West.
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特别是在西方地区。
03:59
Most Northern cities today are 100 times
safer than they were just 100 years ago.
safer than they were just 100 years ago.
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现今大部分的北部城市
比一百年前安全一百倍。
比一百年前安全一百倍。
04:04
These two facts -- the decline in armed
conflict and the decline in murder --
conflict and the decline in murder --
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武装冲突减少了，
谋杀犯罪减少了，
谋杀犯罪减少了，
04:08
are amongst the most extraordinary,
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这是最为了不起的事实，
04:09
if unheralded, accomplishments
of human history,
of human history,
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若是旷古未有，亦是人类历史的成就，
04:12
and we should be really excited, right?
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我们应该为此感到兴奋，对吧？
04:15
Well, yeah, we should.
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没错，我们应该。
04:17
There's just one problem:
These two scourges are still with us.
These two scourges are still with us.
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只是有一个问题：
这两个祸害还是跟着我们。
这两个祸害还是跟着我们。
04:22
You see, 525,000 people --
men, women, boys and girls --
men, women, boys and girls --
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大家看，每年有52.5万人，
04:28
die violently every single year.
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无论男女老少，死于暴力。
04:31
Research I've been doing
with Keith Krause and others
with Keith Krause and others
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我、基思•克劳斯和其他人
在做的一个研究表明
在做的一个研究表明
04:33
has shown that between 50,000 and 60,000
people are dying in war zones violently.
people are dying in war zones violently.
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5到6万人死于战区暴力。
04:39
The rest, almost 500,000 people,
are dying outside of conflict zones.
are dying outside of conflict zones.
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其余大约50万人死于冲突区域之外。
04:44
In other words, 10 times more people
are dying outside of war than inside war.
are dying outside of war than inside war.
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换而言之，非战争暴力致死的人数
是战争致死的十倍。
是战争致死的十倍。
04:50
What's more, violence is moving south,
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此外，暴力正往南部地区迁移，
04:53
to Latin America and the Caribbean,
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移往拉丁美洲、加勒比海地区，
04:56
to parts of Central and Southern Africa,
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移往部分中非和南非地区，
04:58
and to bits of the Middle East
and Central Asia.
and Central Asia.
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移往部分中东和中亚地区。
05:01
Forty of the 50 most dangerous
cities in the world
cities in the world
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世界上50个最危险的城市当中
05:04
are right here in Latin America,
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有40个就在拉丁美洲，
05:05
13 in Brazil,
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13个在巴西，
05:07
and the most dangerous of all, it's
San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,
San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,
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当中最最危险的，
是圣佩德罗苏拉，洪都拉斯第二大城市，
是圣佩德罗苏拉，洪都拉斯第二大城市，
05:12
with a staggering homicide rate
of 187 murders per 100,000 people.
of 187 murders per 100,000 people.
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每10万人中就有187人被谋杀，
凶杀率实为惊人，
凶杀率实为惊人，
05:17
That's 23 times the global average.
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是世界平均值的23倍。
05:20
Now, if violence is
re-concentrating geographically,
re-concentrating geographically,
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如果暴力正在重新定位，
05:23
it's also being reconfigured
to the world's new topography,
to the world's new topography,
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它亦正按世界新地形重新定形，
05:26
because when it comes to cities,
the world ain't flat,
the world ain't flat,
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因为对于城市来说，
地球不是平的，
地球不是平的，
05:28
like Thomas Friedman likes to say.
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像托马斯•弗里德曼常说，
05:31
It's spiky.
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世界尖锐棘手的很。
05:32
The dominance of the city
as the primary mode of urban living
as the primary mode of urban living
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城市主导城市生活主要方式
05:36
is one of the most extraordinary
demographic reversals in history,
demographic reversals in history,
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是历史上最不寻常的人口结构逆转之一，
05:40
and it all happened so fast.
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而发生得惊人之快。
05:43
You all know the figures, right?
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大家都知道这些数字，对吧？
05:45
There's 7.3 billion people
in the world today;
in the world today;
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现今世界人口73亿人；
05:47
there will be 9.6 billion by 2050.
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2050年将会有96亿人。
05:49
But consider this one fact:
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但大家想想这一个现实：
05:51
In the 1800s, one in 30
people lived in cities,
people lived in cities,
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在18世纪，每三十个人中
就有一个人住在城市，
就有一个人住在城市，
05:55
today it's one in two,
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今天是每两个人有一个人住城市，
05:57
and tomorrow virtually everyone
is going to be there.
is going to be there.
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将来基本每个人都住在城市。
06:00
And this expansion in urbanization
is going to be neither even nor equitable.
is going to be neither even nor equitable.
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城市化的扩张
既不会平坦，也不会公平。
既不会平坦，也不会公平。
06:04
The vast majority, 90 percent,
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90%的城市变迁扩张
06:06
will be happening in the South,
in cities of the South.
in cities of the South.
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会发生在南部地区，
在南部的城市。
在南部的城市。
06:10
So urban geographers and demographers,
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城市地理学家
和人口学家告诉我们
和人口学家告诉我们
06:13
they tell us that it's not necessarily
the size or even the density of cities
the size or even the density of cities
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一个城市的大小或密度
06:18
that predicts violence, no.
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不一定会造成暴力。
06:20
Tokyo, with 35 million people,
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东京有3千5百万人口，
06:22
is one of the largest, and some might say
safest, urban metropolises in the world.
safest, urban metropolises in the world.
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是世界上最大的大都市之一，
也被认为是最安全的大都市之一。
也被认为是最安全的大都市之一。
06:27
No, it's the speed of
urbanization that matters.
urbanization that matters.
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与暴力相关的不是大小或密度，
而是城市化的速度。
而是城市化的速度。
06:30
I call this turbo-urbanization, and it's
one of the key drivers of fragility.
one of the key drivers of fragility.
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我称之为涡轮城市化，
脆弱性的关键驱动因素之一。
脆弱性的关键驱动因素之一。
06:36
When you think about the incredible
expansion of these cities,
expansion of these cities,
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你想到这些城市的惊人扩张，
06:41
and you think about turbo-urbanization,
think about Karachi.
think about Karachi.
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你再想想涡轮城市化，
再想想卡拉奇。
再想想卡拉奇。
06:45
Karachi was about 500,000 people in 1947,
a hustling, bustling city.
a hustling, bustling city.
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卡拉奇在1947年有约50万人，
是一个繁忙的城市。
是一个繁忙的城市。
06:51
Today, it's 21 million people,
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今日，卡拉奇有2千1百万人，
06:54
and apart from accounting
for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,
for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,
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占有巴基斯坦GDP的三分之四，
06:58
it's also one of the most violent
cities in South Asia.
cities in South Asia.
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亦是南亚最暴力的城市之一。
07:01
Dhaka, Lagos, Kinshasa,
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达卡、拉各斯、金沙萨
07:04
these cities are now 40 times larger
than they were in the 1950s.
than they were in the 1950s.
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现在这些城市
比19世纪50年代时庞大40倍。
比19世纪50年代时庞大40倍。
07:09
Now take a look at New York.
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我们在看看纽约。
07:11
The Big Apple, it took 150 years
to get to eight million people.
to get to eight million people.
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纽约用了150年来收居八百万人。
07:16
São Paulo, Mexico City, took 15
to reach that same interval.
to reach that same interval.
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墨西哥城的圣保罗
用来15年时间就做到了。
用来15年时间就做到了。
07:21
Now, what do these medium,
large, mega-, and hypercities look like?
large, mega-, and hypercities look like?
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这些超大中小城市是怎样的城市？
07:25
What is their profile?
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这些城市的相貌如何？
07:27
Well, for one thing, they're young.
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首先，这些城市都很年轻。
07:29
What we're seeing in many of them
is the rise of the youth bulge.
is the rise of the youth bulge.
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许多城市都出现年轻人口膨胀。
07:32
Now, this is actually a good news story.
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这算是好消息。
07:34
It's a function of reductions
in child mortality rates.
in child mortality rates.
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因为这意味着幼儿死亡率下降了。
07:37
But the youth bulge is something
we've got to watch.
we've got to watch.
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但是年轻人口膨胀，我们得小心看待。
07:39
What it basically means
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简单来说，
07:41
is the proportion of young people
living in our fragile cities
living in our fragile cities
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生活在脆弱城市中的年轻人比例
07:44
is much larger than those living
in our healthier and wealthier ones.
in our healthier and wealthier ones.
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比其他更健康富裕的城市的比例要高得多。
07:47
In some fragile cities,
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在一些脆弱城市，
07:49
75 percent of the population
is under the age of 30.
is under the age of 30.
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75%人口年龄在30岁以下，
07:52
Think about that:
Three in four people are under 30.
Three in four people are under 30.
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想想：每四个人中就有三个在30岁以下。
07:57
It's like Palo Alto on steroids.
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就像让帕罗奥图服用类固醇。
08:00
Now, if you look at Mogadishu for example,
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看看索马里的首都摩加迪沙。
08:03
in Mogadishu the mean age is 16 years old.
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在摩加迪沙，平均年龄是16岁。
08:07
Ditto for Dhaka, Dili and Kabul.
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类似的有孟加拉的达卡、
东帝汶的帝力、阿富汗的喀布尔。
东帝汶的帝力、阿富汗的喀布尔。
08:10
And Tokyo? It's 46.
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东京呢？平均年龄46岁。
08:12
Same for most Western European cities.
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大部分西欧城市亦一样。
08:16
Now, it's not just youth
that necessarily predicts violence.
that necessarily predicts violence.
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不是年轻人就可以带来暴力。
08:19
That's one factor among many,
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那只是多个因素中的其中之一，
08:21
but youthfulness combined
with unemployment, lack of education,
with unemployment, lack of education,
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但如果青年，再加上失业、缺乏学历，
08:24
and -- this is the kicker --
being male, is a deadly proposition.
being male, is a deadly proposition.
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如果还是男性青年，那就是不得了了。
08:28
They're statistically correlated,
all those risk factors, with youth,
all those risk factors, with youth,
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这些因素都在统计学上的相关因素
08:32
and they tend to relate
to increases in violence.
to increases in violence.
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所有风险因素发生在青年身上，
会使暴力发生率上升。
会使暴力发生率上升。
08:36
Now, for those of you who are
parents of teenage sons,
parents of teenage sons,
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在座如果有儿子出于青年阶段，
08:39
you know what I'm talking about, right?
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就会懂我的意思。
08:41
Just imagine your boy
without any structure
without any structure
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想象一下您的儿子，
什么都没有，
什么都没有，
08:44
with those unruly friends of his,
out there cavorting about.
out there cavorting about.
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经常跟不守规矩的朋友在一起，
四处闯闹。
四处闯闹。
08:47
Now, take away the parents,
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现在，想象他们没有父母的教导，
08:50
take away the education,
limit the education possibilities,
limit the education possibilities,
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没有教育背景，
教育机会受到限制，
教育机会受到限制，
08:54
sprinkle in a little bit of drugs,
alcohol and guns,
alcohol and guns,
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在添点毒品、酒精、枪械，
08:57
and sit back and watch the fireworks.
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想想他们会变成怎样。
09:00
The implications are disconcerting.
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后果可能是不堪设想的。
09:03
Right here in Brazil,
the life expectancy is 73.6 years.
the life expectancy is 73.6 years.
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在巴西，
人均寿命是73.6岁。
人均寿命是73.6岁。
09:06
If you live in Rio, I'm sorry,
shave off two right there.
shave off two right there.
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如果你住里约热内卢，
抱歉，活少两岁。
抱歉，活少两岁。
09:10
But if you're young, you're uneducated,
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但要是你年轻、没受过教育、
09:12
you lack employment,
you're black, and you're male,
you're black, and you're male,
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没有工作、是黑人、还是男性黑人，
09:15
your life expectancy drops
to less than 60 years old.
to less than 60 years old.
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你的年均寿命只能直降到60岁以下。
09:18
There's a reason why youthfulness
and violence are the number one killers
and violence are the number one killers
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年轻和暴力是这个国家的头号杀手，
09:23
in this country.
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这是有原因的。
09:25
Okay, so it's not all doom
and gloom in our cities.
and gloom in our cities.
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城市不是那么不可救药。
09:28
After all, cities are hubs of innovation,
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毕竟城市是创新的温床，
09:31
dynamism, prosperity,
excitement, connectivity.
excitement, connectivity.
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充满活力、前景、刺激、人际关系。
09:34
They're where the smart people gather.
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城市里都聚满了聪明人。
09:36
And those young people I just mentioned,
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而我刚刚所说的年轻人，
09:38
they're more digitally savvy
and tech-aware than ever before.
and tech-aware than ever before.
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他们认识的数码技术和技术比谁都多。
09:42
And this explosion, the Internet,
and mobile technology,
and mobile technology,
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知识爆炸、因特网、移动通信技术
09:46
means that the digital divide
separating the North and the South
separating the North and the South
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使南北部地区国家之间的
数码技术差异逐步缩小，
数码技术差异逐步缩小，
09:49
between countries
and within them, is shrinking.
and within them, is shrinking.
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也使南北部地区国家内的
数码技术差异逐步缩小。
数码技术差异逐步缩小。
09:53
But as we've heard so many times,
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1615
但这些新技术是双刃剑，
09:54
these new technologies
are dual-edged, right?
are dual-edged, right?
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2732
这我们都耳熟能详。
09:57
Take the case of law enforcement.
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2143
拿法律实施来举例。
09:59
Police around the world are starting
to use remote sensing and big data
to use remote sensing and big data
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全球的警察开始使用
遥感技术和海量数据
遥感技术和海量数据
10:03
to anticipate crime.
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1595
来预测犯罪。
10:04
Some cops are able to predict
criminal violence before it even happens.
criminal violence before it even happens.
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一些警察能够在犯罪发生前
就预测到罪犯的暴力行为。
就预测到罪犯的暴力行为。
10:09
The future crime scenario,
it's here today,
it's here today,
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3405
将来犯罪的场景，
就在今天，
就在今天，
10:12
and we've got to be careful.
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我们需要小心提防。
10:14
We have to manage the issues
of the public safety
of the public safety
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我们必须协调好公共安全问题
10:16
against rights to individual privacy.
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防止个人隐私权利受到侵害。
10:18
But it's not just the cops
who are innovating.
who are innovating.
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2151
在创新的，不只是警察。
10:21
We've heard extraordinary activities
of civil society groups
of civil society groups
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我们听过坊间社会团体的
举办不少出众的活动，
举办不少出众的活动，
10:23
who are engaging in local
and global collective action,
and global collective action,
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3135
他们从事本地和全球的集体活动，
10:27
and this is leading to digital protest
and real revolution.
and real revolution.
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可以引起数字化抗议和真实革命。
10:31
But most worrying
of all are criminal gangs
of all are criminal gangs
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但最令人担忧的是
10:35
who are going online
and starting to colonize cyberspace.
and starting to colonize cyberspace.
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2909
犯罪团体利用网络
开始侵略网络空间。
开始侵略网络空间。
10:38
In Ciudad Juárez in Mexico,
where I've been working,
where I've been working,
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3132
我在墨西哥的华雷斯城工作，
10:41
groups like the Zetas
and the Sinaloa cartel
and the Sinaloa cartel
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2354
那里的塞塔斯暴力犯罪集团
和锡纳罗亚贩毒集团等集团，
和锡纳罗亚贩毒集团等集团，
10:43
are hijacking social media.
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1621
一直劫持社交媒体。
10:45
They're using it to recruit,
to sell their products,
to sell their products,
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2584
他们利用社交媒体来招兵买马，
贩卖他们的产品，
贩卖他们的产品，
10:47
to coerce, to intimidate and to kill.
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2230
胁迫、恐吓和杀害他人。
10:49
Violence is going virtual.
195
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3183
暴力在走向虚拟世界。
10:53
So this is just a partial sketch
196
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2133
现今形势多变复杂
10:55
of a fast-moving and dynamic
and complex situation.
and complex situation.
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2676
这不过是其中一面。
10:57
I mean, there are many other megarisks
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1849
超级风险还有许多，
10:59
that are going to define
fragility in our time,
fragility in our time,
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2435
并且会直接影响我们时代的脆弱性，
11:02
not least income inequality,
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也会影响当今的收入不均、
11:04
poverty, climate change, impunity.
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贫穷、气候变化、
罪犯逍遥法外等问题。
罪犯逍遥法外等问题。
11:07
But we're facing a stark dilemma
202
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2345
但我们面临着一个严峻的窘境：
11:10
where some cities are going to thrive
and drive global growth
and drive global growth
203
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4059
有些城市会繁荣发展
促进全球的进步，
促进全球的进步，
11:14
and others are going to stumble
and pull it backwards.
and pull it backwards.
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2936
但也有城市会跌跌绊绊
拉大家的后腿。
拉大家的后腿。
11:17
If we're going to change course,
we need to start a conversation.
we need to start a conversation.
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3226
如果要改变这种现象，
我们需要开展新对话。
我们需要开展新对话。
11:20
We can't only focus
on those cities that work,
on those cities that work,
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2991
我们不能只关注那些发展好的城市，
11:23
the Singapores, the Kuala Lumpurs,
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2508
像新加坡、吉隆坡、
11:25
the Dubais, the Shanghais.
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673944
1880
杜拜、上海；
11:27
We've got to bring those fragile cities
into the conversation.
into the conversation.
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4204
我们要与脆弱城市对话。
11:32
One way to do this might be
to start twinning
to start twinning
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2530
方法之一可以是
11:34
our fragile cities with our healthier
and wealthier ones,
and wealthier ones,
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2740
将我们较健康富有的城市
与较脆弱的城市结对，
与较脆弱的城市结对，
11:37
kickstarting a process of learning
and collaboration
and collaboration
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2513
开展相互学习合作的过程，
11:39
and sharing of practices,
of what works and what doesn't.
of what works and what doesn't.
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4239
分享经验，分享成功与失败。
11:44
A wonderful example of this is coming
from El Salvador and Los Angeles,
from El Salvador and Los Angeles,
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一个很好的例子是
萨尔瓦多和洛杉矶。
萨尔瓦多和洛杉矶。
11:47
where the mayors in San Salvador
and Los Angeles are collaborating
and Los Angeles are collaborating
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圣萨尔瓦多市长和洛杉矶市长携手合作
11:51
on getting ex-gang members
to work with current gang members,
to work with current gang members,
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3953
组织前犯罪团体成员
与目前的犯罪团体成员一起，
与目前的犯罪团体成员一起，
11:55
offering tutoring, education,
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2788
开放教育班、提供教育、
11:58
and in the process are helping
incubate cease-fires and truces,
incubate cease-fires and truces,
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3320
并且不断劝谕停火停战，
12:01
and we've seen homicide rates
go down in San Salvador,
go down in San Salvador,
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2547
圣萨尔瓦多的凶杀率显著下降了，
12:04
once the world's most violent city,
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1823
过去世界上最暴力的城市，
12:06
by 50 percent.
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1644
凶杀率下降五成。
12:07
We can also focus
on hot cities, but also hot spots.
on hot cities, but also hot spots.
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2549
我们也可以关注热门城市、热门地点。
12:10
Place and location matter fundamentally
in shaping violence in our cities.
in shaping violence in our cities.
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地点对城市暴力形成有着根本影响。
12:14
Did you know that between
one and two percent
one and two percent
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2555
在座是否知道
12:17
of street addresses in any fragile city
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2065
脆弱城市中1-2%的街道
12:19
can predict up to 99 percent
of violent crime?
of violent crime?
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3702
可以预测该城市99%的暴力犯罪。
12:23
Take the case of São Paulo,
where I've been working.
where I've been working.
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拿我生活的圣保罗为例。
12:25
It's gone from being Brazil's most
dangerous city to one of its safest,
dangerous city to one of its safest,
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733614
3753
过去这是巴西最危险的城市，
现在确实最安全的城市，
现在确实最安全的城市，
12:29
and it did this by doubling down
229
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1959
方法是将加大力量，
12:31
on information collection,
hot spot mapping, and police reform,
hot spot mapping, and police reform,
230
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3231
双倍增加信息收集、
热点绘图、警方改革，
热点绘图、警方改革，
12:34
and in the process, it dropped homicide
by 70 percent in just over 10 years.
by 70 percent in just over 10 years.
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5038
在十年内凶杀率因此下降70%。
12:39
We also got to focus on those hot people.
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2455
我们也需要关注热点人物。
12:42
It's tragic, but being young,
unemployed, uneducated, male,
unemployed, uneducated, male,
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4089
年轻、失业、无教育、男性
12:46
increases the risks
of being killed and killing.
of being killed and killing.
234
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3997
虽然不幸，
但却可增加凶杀机率。
但却可增加凶杀机率。
12:50
We have to break this cycle of violence
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2685
我们必须打破这条暴力链，
12:52
and get in there early with our children,
our youngest children,
our youngest children,
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3334
早期与儿童和青年相处，
12:56
and valorize them, not stigmatize them.
237
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2609
稳定他们，而不是侮辱他们。
12:59
There's wonderful work that's happening
that I've been involved with
that I've been involved with
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3370
最近我在致力的一项工作
13:02
in Kingston, Jamaica
and right here in Rio,
and right here in Rio,
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770584
2291
在牙买加的金斯敦、
在里约热内卢，
在里约热内卢，
13:04
which is putting education,
employment, recreation
employment, recreation
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3298
将教育、就业、娱乐
13:08
up front for these high-risk groups,
241
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2156
带给这些高风险人群，
13:10
and as a result, we're seeing violence
going down in their communities.
going down in their communities.
242
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3355
因此这些社区的暴力下降了。
13:13
We've also got to make our cities safer,
more inclusive, and livable for all.
more inclusive, and livable for all.
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3678
我们也发现城市变得
更加安全，更加包容，更加宜居。
更加安全，更加包容，更加宜居。
13:17
The fact is, social cohesion matters.
244
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3767
事实是，社会凝聚力相当重要。
13:21
Mobility matters in our cities.
245
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2480
流动性对城市相当重要。
13:23
We've got to get away from this model
of segregation, exclusion,
of segregation, exclusion,
246
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3070
我们必须要让我们的城市
13:26
and cities with walls.
247
794679
1416
远离种族隔离、排斥他人的模式。
13:28
My favorite example of how to do this
comes from Medellín.
comes from Medellín.
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796095
2810
一个很好的例子是麦德林。
13:30
When I lived in Colombia
in the late 1990s,
in the late 1990s,
249
798905
2005
九十年代末我住在哥伦比亚，
13:32
Medellín was the murder capital
of the world, but it changed course,
of the world, but it changed course,
250
800910
3631
麦德林是当时世界经典的凶杀城市，
但是这个城市后来改变了，
但是这个城市后来改变了，
13:36
and it did this by deliberately investing
in its low-income and most violent areas
in its low-income and most violent areas
251
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4259
这是因为刻意投资在低收入高暴力的地区
13:40
and integrating them
with the middle-class ones
with the middle-class ones
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与中产阶级社区相融合，
13:43
through a network of cable cars,
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通过缆车网络的接驳、
13:44
of public transport,
and first-class infrastructure,
and first-class infrastructure,
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公共交通的联系、
一流基础设施的投入，
一流基础设施的投入，
13:47
and in the process, it dropped homicide
by 79 percent in just under two decades.
by 79 percent in just under two decades.
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该城市在二十年内
凶杀率下降79%。
凶杀率下降79%。
13:52
And finally, there's technology.
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最后，还有技术。
13:55
Technology has enormous
promise but also peril.
promise but also peril.
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技术有巨大的好处，
也有巨大的危害。
也有巨大的危害。
13:57
We've seen examples here
of extraordinary innovation,
of extraordinary innovation,
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我们举了一些创新例子，
14:00
and much of it coming from this room,
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很多都是出自这个房间。
14:02
The police are engaging
in predictive analytics.
in predictive analytics.
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警察致力于预测分析。
14:04
Citizens are engaging
in new crowdsourcing solutions.
in new crowdsourcing solutions.
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市民致力于新的公众解决方案。
14:07
Even my own group is involved
in developing applications
in developing applications
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我自己的团队也在开发程序，
14:09
to provide more accountability over police
and increase safety among citizens.
and increase safety among citizens.
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提供更多可信破案资讯，
为市民带来更多安全。
为市民带来更多安全。
14:14
But we need to be careful.
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但是我们需要小心提防。
14:17
If I have one single
message for you, it's this:
message for you, it's this:
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如果我可以向您传达一个信息，
那会是：
那会是：
14:21
There is nothing inevitable
about lethal violence,
about lethal violence,
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暴力致死不是不可避免的，
14:24
and we can make our cities safer.
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我们可以将城市变得更安全。
14:29
Folks, we have the opportunity
of a lifetime to drop homicidal violence
of a lifetime to drop homicidal violence
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在座各位，我们现在有机会
14:35
in half within our lifetime.
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在我们有生之年
将凶杀率减少一半。
将凶杀率减少一半。
14:38
So I have just one question:
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所以我只有一个问题：
14:39
What are we waiting for?
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我们还在等什么？
14:41
Thank you.
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谢谢。
14:43
(Applause)
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（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Muggah - Megacities expertRobert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally.
Why you should listen
Robert Muggah drills down through shadowy data on arms trafficking, urban violence and resilience in search of answers for a rapidly urbanizing society’s most troubling questions: Why are cities so violent, and increasingly fragile? Why are conflicts within nations replacing conflicts between them? And what strategies can we implement to reduce violence?
Muggah's high-tech toolkit includes new ways for citizens to collect, collate and understand data, such as the mapping arms data (MAD) tool. As the research director of the Igarapé Institute and the SecDev Foundation, he developed the tool in collaboration with the Peace Research Institute Oslo and with Google Ideas, winning accolades for the transparency it brings to the debate.
Robert Muggah | Speaker | TED.com