TEDGlobal 2014
Robert Muggah: How to protect fast-growing cities from failing
羅勃特．穆加: 如何保護好高速發展的城市免於殞落？
Filmed:
Readability: 5.1
982,046 views
世界各地動亂在減少，但是人口密集的南部地區城市——像是阿勒坡、巴馬科、加拉加斯等地——受毒品交易、大規模失業、社會動盪等因素添擾，動亂實際上是更頻繁上演。安全專家羅勃特．穆加把我們的注意力轉到這些較為脆弱的城市上，這些城市發展超快，但基礎建設脆弱、治理效率不彰，他帶我們來看當下所面臨的四大風險，而且提供了一個改變格局的方法。
Robert Muggah - Megacities expert
Robert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally. Full bio
Robert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
We can cut violent deaths
around the world
around the world
0
640
5230
我們可在未來30年內
將世界各地暴亂的死亡人數
降低 50 %，
降低 50 %，
00:17
by 50 percent in the next three decades.
1
5870
3090
00:22
All we have to do
is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,
is drop killing by 2.3 percent a year,
2
10120
5071
我們要做的就是
讓他殺死亡率每年下降 2.3 %，
讓他殺死亡率每年下降 2.3 %，
00:27
and we'll hit that target.
3
15191
2453
然後我們就能達標了。
00:29
You don't believe me?
4
17644
1695
你不相信我嗎？
00:31
Well, the leading epidemiologists
and criminologists around the world
and criminologists around the world
5
19339
3274
世界上首屈一指的
流行病學和犯罪學專家們
流行病學和犯罪學專家們
00:34
seem to think we can, and so do I,
6
22613
2391
似乎認為我們行的，我也是一樣，
00:37
but only if we focus on our cities,
especially the most fragile ones.
especially the most fragile ones.
7
25004
5135
前提是假使我們看緊我們的城市，
尤其是最脆弱的這一些。
尤其是最脆弱的這一些。
00:42
You see, I've been thinking
about this a lot.
about this a lot.
8
30139
4269
我一直在關心這個問題，
00:46
For the last 20 years, I've been working
9
34408
1912
過去 20 年來，我工作的國家和城市
00:48
in countries and cities
ripped apart by conflict,
ripped apart by conflict,
10
36320
3568
充斥著衝突、動亂或恐怖主義，
00:51
violence, terrorism, or some
insidious combination of all.
insidious combination of all.
11
39888
4017
甚者樣樣皆有；
00:55
I've tracked gun smugglers
from Russia to Somalia,
from Russia to Somalia,
12
43905
3506
我曾經由俄羅斯到索馬利亞
追蹤過軍火走私者、
追蹤過軍火走私者、
00:59
I've worked with warlords
in Afghanistan and the Congo,
in Afghanistan and the Congo,
13
47411
3172
與阿富汗以及剛果的軍閥共事過、
01:02
I've counted cadavers in Colombia, in
Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.
Haiti, in Sri Lanka, in Papua New Guinea.
14
50583
5122
在哥倫比亞、海地、斯里蘭卡、
巴布亞紐幾內亞等地計算過屍體。
巴布亞紐幾內亞等地計算過屍體。
01:08
You don't need to be
on the front line, though,
on the front line, though,
15
56285
2250
縱使你不在第一線上
01:10
to get a sense that our planet
is spinning out of control, right?
is spinning out of control, right?
16
58535
3312
也會感覺到地球正迅速失控吧，
01:13
There's this feeling that international
instability is the new normal.
instability is the new normal.
17
61847
4549
感覺到國際動盪是新常態。
01:18
But I want you to take a closer look,
18
66396
2131
不過請大家仔細觀察，
01:20
and I think you'll see that
the geography of violence is changing,
the geography of violence is changing,
19
68527
3212
就會發現暴亂的地理位置正在改變，
01:23
because it's not so much our nation states
that are gripped by conflict and crime
that are gripped by conflict and crime
20
71739
3808
因為深陷衝突和犯罪的
並不是我們的國家，
並不是我們的國家，
01:27
as our cities: Aleppo, Bamako, Caracas,
Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
Erbil, Mosul, Tripoli, Salvador.
21
75547
7524
而是城市：阿勒坡、巴馬科、加拉加斯、
埃比爾、摩蘇爾、的黎波里、薩爾瓦多。
埃比爾、摩蘇爾、的黎波里、薩爾瓦多。
01:35
Violence is migrating to the metropole.
22
83071
3125
暴力正向大都市遷移。
01:38
And maybe this is to be expected, right?
23
86196
2725
也許這是預料中之事，對吧？
01:40
After all, most people today,
they live in cities, not the countryside.
they live in cities, not the countryside.
24
88921
3947
畢竟現今絕大多數人住在城市
而不是鄉間，
而不是鄉間，
01:44
Just 600 cities, including 30 megacities,
account for two thirds of global GDP.
account for two thirds of global GDP.
25
92868
5836
600個城市——包括30個巨型城市，
就佔了全球GDP的三分之二。
就佔了全球GDP的三分之二。
01:50
But when it comes to cities,
26
98704
1759
不過當說到城市的時候，
01:52
the conversation is
dominated by the North,
dominated by the North,
27
100463
2659
話題大都由北部地區主導，
01:55
that is, North America, Western Europe,
Australia and Japan,
Australia and Japan,
28
103122
3399
所謂北部地區，
是指北美、西歐、澳洲和日本，
是指北美、西歐、澳洲和日本，
01:58
where violence is
actually at historic lows.
actually at historic lows.
29
106521
3147
這些地方暴動確實是史上的低點；
02:01
As a result, city enthusiasts, they talk
about the triumph of the city,
about the triumph of the city,
30
109668
4701
因此，城市的熱衷者聊的是
城市的勝利、創新階級的勝利、
城市的勝利、創新階級的勝利、
02:06
of the creative classes, and the mayors
that will rule the world.
that will rule the world.
31
114369
3146
說市長們將會管治世界。
02:10
Now, I hope that mayors
do one day rule the world,
do one day rule the world,
32
118315
3486
我希望市長們有天真會管治這世界，
02:13
but, you know, the fact is,
33
121801
2037
不過事實是
02:15
we don't hear any conversation, really,
about what is happening in the South.
about what is happening in the South.
34
123838
4369
我們沒有真正地聽到
南部地區的聲音和形勢。
南部地區的聲音和形勢。
02:20
And by South, I mean
Latin America, Africa, Asia,
Latin America, Africa, Asia,
35
128207
4377
所謂南部地區，我是指
拉丁美洲、非洲、亞洲
拉丁美洲、非洲、亞洲
02:24
where violence in some
cases is accelerating,
cases is accelerating,
36
132584
2728
在這些地方，暴力不斷加劇，
02:27
where infrastructure is overstretched,
37
135312
2601
基礎建設過度匱乏、
02:29
and where governance is sometimes
an aspiration and not a reality.
an aspiration and not a reality.
38
137913
4355
治理有時候只是抱負而非實事。
02:34
Now, some diplomats
and development experts and specialists,
and development experts and specialists,
39
142268
4323
目前，一些外交官、
發展專家、專業人士在關注
發展專家、專業人士在關注
02:38
they talk about 40 to 50 fragile states
40
146591
2665
會決定21世紀安全的
四五十個脆弱城市。
四五十個脆弱城市。
02:41
that will shape security
in the 21st century.
in the 21st century.
41
149256
3622
會決定21世紀安全的
四五十個脆弱城市。
四五十個脆弱城市。
我認為：這些脆弱城市
會直接決定未來的秩序和穩定。
會直接決定未來的秩序和穩定。
02:44
I think it's fragile cities which will
define the future of order and disorder.
define the future of order and disorder.
42
152878
5185
02:50
That's because warfare
and humanitarian action
and humanitarian action
43
158063
3351
因為戰爭和人道救助行動
02:53
are going to be
concentrated in our cities,
concentrated in our cities,
44
161414
2214
即將要匯聚到我們的城市裡，
02:55
and the fight for development,
45
163628
1573
為發展而起的鬥爭，
02:57
whether you define that
as eradicating poverty,
as eradicating poverty,
46
165201
2691
無論是消滅貧窮、
02:59
universal healthcare,
beating back climate change,
beating back climate change,
47
167892
2433
普及醫療保健，還是擊退氣候變化，
03:02
will be won or lost in the shantytowns,
slums and favelas of our cities.
slums and favelas of our cities.
48
170325
5671
成敗關鍵都在城市中的破屋、殘樓、貧民窟。
03:07
I want to talk to you about four megarisks
49
175996
2556
我要跟你們講四項巨大風險，
03:10
that I think will define
fragility in our time,
fragility in our time,
50
178552
3249
我認為將會決定這時代的脆弱性，
03:13
and if we can get to grips with these,
51
181801
2229
倘若我們能夠處理這些風險，
03:16
I think we can do something
with that lethal violence problem.
with that lethal violence problem.
52
184030
2945
我們就可以解決致命暴力問題。
03:18
So let me start with some good news.
53
186975
2372
那麼我們先由好消息談起。
03:21
Fact is, we're living in the most
peaceful moment in human history.
peaceful moment in human history.
54
189347
5431
事實是我們正處在
人類歷史中最和平的時候，
人類歷史中最和平的時候，
03:26
Steven Pinker and others have shown how
the intensity and frequency of conflict
the intensity and frequency of conflict
55
194778
4181
「司提芬•朋克」等人表明
現今衝突的強度和頻率
現今衝突的強度和頻率
03:30
is actually at an all-time low.
56
198959
2740
實際上處於史上低點，
03:33
Now, Gaza, Syria, Sudan, Ukraine,
57
201699
3646
目前迦薩、敘利亞、蘇丹、烏克蘭
03:37
as ghastly as these conflicts are,
and they are horrific,
and they are horrific,
58
205345
3831
這些國家的衝突可怕恐怖，
03:41
they represent a relatively
small blip upwards
small blip upwards
59
209176
2740
在暴力持續下降50年之後，
03:43
in a 50-year-long secular decline.
60
211916
2995
現階段的暴力
只是一個相對較小的往上攀升的點。
只是一個相對較小的往上攀升的點。
03:46
What's more, we're seeing
a dramatic reduction in homicide.
a dramatic reduction in homicide.
61
214911
4307
再者是我們看到了謀殺大量的減少，
03:51
Manuel Eisner and others have shown
62
219218
2217
「曼紐沃‧艾斯納」等人證實了
03:53
that for centuries, we've seen
this incredible drop in murder,
this incredible drop in murder,
63
221435
3710
我們看到數世紀以來
謀殺令人無法置信般地減少，
謀殺令人無法置信般地減少，
03:57
especially in the West.
64
225145
1945
特別是在西方，
03:59
Most Northern cities today are 100 times
safer than they were just 100 years ago.
safer than they were just 100 years ago.
65
227090
5436
今天大多數的北方城市比 100 年前
還要更安全著 100 倍，
還要更安全著 100 倍，
04:04
These two facts -- the decline in armed
conflict and the decline in murder --
conflict and the decline in murder --
66
232526
3745
武裝衝突減少了，
謀殺犯罪減少了，
謀殺犯罪減少了，
04:08
are amongst the most extraordinary,
67
236271
1679
也許曠古未有，
04:09
if unheralded, accomplishments
of human history,
of human history,
68
237950
2577
是人類歷史最了不起的成就，
04:12
and we should be really excited, right?
69
240527
3300
我們應該為此感到興奮，對吧？
04:15
Well, yeah, we should.
70
243827
1828
沒錯是要的。
04:17
There's just one problem:
These two scourges are still with us.
These two scourges are still with us.
71
245655
4389
就只有一個問題：
這兩項災禍始終還不放過我們。
這兩項災禍始終還不放過我們。
04:22
You see, 525,000 people --
men, women, boys and girls --
men, women, boys and girls --
72
250044
6093
知道嗎，每年有52.5萬人，
不分男女老少，慘死於暴力，
04:28
die violently every single year.
73
256148
3181
04:31
Research I've been doing
with Keith Krause and others
with Keith Krause and others
74
259329
2600
我與凱斯‧克勞斯等人
做的研究指出
做的研究指出
04:33
has shown that between 50,000 and 60,000
people are dying in war zones violently.
people are dying in war zones violently.
75
261929
5457
介於五至六萬人慘死於戰爭區，
04:39
The rest, almost 500,000 people,
are dying outside of conflict zones.
are dying outside of conflict zones.
76
267386
5014
其餘大約50萬人死於衝突區域之外。
04:44
In other words, 10 times more people
are dying outside of war than inside war.
are dying outside of war than inside war.
77
272400
5993
換言之，十倍之多人死於戰爭外
而非其中，
而非其中，
04:50
What's more, violence is moving south,
78
278393
3095
更甚者是暴亂往南方移動，
04:53
to Latin America and the Caribbean,
79
281488
2708
來到拉丁美洲和加勒比海、
04:56
to parts of Central and Southern Africa,
80
284196
2281
非洲中部及南部的地方、
04:58
and to bits of the Middle East
and Central Asia.
and Central Asia.
81
286477
2874
又襲擊到中東和中亞。
05:01
Forty of the 50 most dangerous
cities in the world
cities in the world
82
289351
2769
世界上五十個最危險的城市，
05:04
are right here in Latin America,
83
292120
1538
有四十個正是在拉丁美洲這邊；
05:05
13 in Brazil,
84
293658
1870
十三個在巴西，
05:07
and the most dangerous of all, it's
San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,
San Pedro Sula, Honduras' second city,
85
295528
5237
當中最危險的是宏都拉斯的
第二大城市「聖佩德羅蘇拉」，
第二大城市「聖佩德羅蘇拉」，
05:12
with a staggering homicide rate
of 187 murders per 100,000 people.
of 187 murders per 100,000 people.
86
300765
4816
有著非常駭人的謀殺率，
每一萬人就有 187 人死於他殺，
每一萬人就有 187 人死於他殺，
05:17
That's 23 times the global average.
87
305581
3139
是世界平均值的23倍。
05:20
Now, if violence is
re-concentrating geographically,
re-concentrating geographically,
88
308720
2727
如果暴力正在重新地理定位，
05:23
it's also being reconfigured
to the world's new topography,
to the world's new topography,
89
311447
2813
它亦正按世界新地形
重新定形，
重新定形，
05:26
because when it comes to cities,
the world ain't flat,
the world ain't flat,
90
314260
2539
因為對於城市來說，
地球不是平的，
地球不是平的，
05:28
like Thomas Friedman likes to say.
91
316799
2278
就像湯瑪士‧佛烈曼常說。
05:31
It's spiky.
92
319077
1336
世界是尖的。
05:32
The dominance of the city
as the primary mode of urban living
as the primary mode of urban living
93
320413
3914
城市至上
成為了城市生活主要方式，
成為了城市生活主要方式，
05:36
is one of the most extraordinary
demographic reversals in history,
demographic reversals in history,
94
324327
4287
這是歷史上最不尋常的人口結構逆轉之一，
05:40
and it all happened so fast.
95
328614
3088
而且這全都發生得太快，
05:43
You all know the figures, right?
96
331702
1525
大家都知道這些數字，對吧？
05:45
There's 7.3 billion people
in the world today;
in the world today;
97
333227
2242
今天世界上有73億人，
05:47
there will be 9.6 billion by 2050.
98
335469
2389
到2050年世界將有96億人。
05:49
But consider this one fact:
99
337858
2064
不過請考量這個事實，
05:51
In the 1800s, one in 30
people lived in cities,
people lived in cities,
100
339922
3192
在十九世紀，30個人當中
有1個人是住在城市裡，
有1個人是住在城市裡，
05:55
today it's one in two,
101
343114
2520
在今天每兩人中會有一個是住在都市裡，
05:57
and tomorrow virtually everyone
is going to be there.
is going to be there.
102
345634
3158
未來肯定是每個人都會住在都市裡；
06:00
And this expansion in urbanization
is going to be neither even nor equitable.
is going to be neither even nor equitable.
103
348792
4086
城市化的擴張
既不會均等，也不會公平。
既不會均等，也不會公平。
90%的城市變遷擴張
06:04
The vast majority, 90 percent,
104
352878
1643
06:06
will be happening in the South,
in cities of the South.
in cities of the South.
105
354521
4212
會發生在南部地區，
在南部的城市。
在南部的城市。
06:10
So urban geographers and demographers,
106
358737
3127
所以都市地理學和人口統計學的學者們
06:13
they tell us that it's not necessarily
the size or even the density of cities
the size or even the density of cities
107
361864
4295
告訴我們：一個城市的大小或密度
06:18
that predicts violence, no.
108
366159
2090
不一定會造成暴力，不一定。
06:20
Tokyo, with 35 million people,
109
368249
2252
東京有三千五百萬人口，
06:22
is one of the largest, and some might say
safest, urban metropolises in the world.
safest, urban metropolises in the world.
110
370501
4728
是最大的、有些人還可能會說是
最安全的都會型城市之一。
最安全的都會型城市之一。
06:27
No, it's the speed of
urbanization that matters.
urbanization that matters.
111
375229
3747
都市化的速度才是關鍵，
06:30
I call this turbo-urbanization, and it's
one of the key drivers of fragility.
one of the key drivers of fragility.
112
378976
5847
我叫它「渦輪式都市化」，
這是脆弱的關鍵導因之一，
這是脆弱的關鍵導因之一，
06:36
When you think about the incredible
expansion of these cities,
expansion of these cities,
113
384823
4788
當你在想這些城市不合理的擴張、
06:41
and you think about turbo-urbanization,
think about Karachi.
think about Karachi.
114
389611
3607
想想看「渦輪都市化」，
想一下喀拉蚩吧，
想一下喀拉蚩吧，
06:45
Karachi was about 500,000 people in 1947,
a hustling, bustling city.
a hustling, bustling city.
115
393218
5909
喀拉蚩在1947年約有50萬人，
是一個繁忙的城市。
是一個繁忙的城市。
06:51
Today, it's 21 million people,
116
399127
3697
今天它有兩千一百萬人口，
06:54
and apart from accounting
for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,
for three quarters of Pakistan's GDP,
117
402824
3945
佔有巴基斯坦GDP的三分之四，
06:58
it's also one of the most violent
cities in South Asia.
cities in South Asia.
118
406769
3094
它還是南亞最暴亂的城市之一。
07:01
Dhaka, Lagos, Kinshasa,
119
409863
2804
達卡、拉哥斯、金夏沙等，
07:04
these cities are now 40 times larger
than they were in the 1950s.
than they were in the 1950s.
120
412667
4045
這些城市比起 1950 年時要大40倍；
07:09
Now take a look at New York.
121
417542
1898
現在來看看紐約，
07:11
The Big Apple, it took 150 years
to get to eight million people.
to get to eight million people.
122
419440
5196
「大蘋果」用了150 年才有八百萬人，
07:16
São Paulo, Mexico City, took 15
to reach that same interval.
to reach that same interval.
123
424636
4441
墨西哥的聖保羅市花了
15 年達到一樣的人口級距，
15 年達到一樣的人口級距，
07:21
Now, what do these medium,
large, mega-, and hypercities look like?
large, mega-, and hypercities look like?
124
429947
3893
如今這些中型、大型、巨型，
以及超級城市是怎麼樣貌呢?
以及超級城市是怎麼樣貌呢?
07:25
What is their profile?
125
433840
1539
這些城市是什麼樣子？
07:27
Well, for one thing, they're young.
126
435379
1835
首先，這些城市都很年輕。
07:29
What we're seeing in many of them
is the rise of the youth bulge.
is the rise of the youth bulge.
127
437214
3622
許多這些城市都出現年輕人口膨脹。
07:32
Now, this is actually a good news story.
128
440836
1912
這算是好消息。
07:34
It's a function of reductions
in child mortality rates.
in child mortality rates.
129
442748
2590
因為這意味著幼兒死亡率下降了。
07:37
But the youth bulge is something
we've got to watch.
we've got to watch.
130
445338
2457
但是年輕人口膨脹，我們得小心看待。
07:39
What it basically means
131
447795
1431
它基本上代表麼呢?
07:41
is the proportion of young people
living in our fragile cities
living in our fragile cities
132
449226
2899
生活在脆弱城市中的年輕人比例
07:44
is much larger than those living
in our healthier and wealthier ones.
in our healthier and wealthier ones.
133
452125
3502
比其他更健康富裕的城市的比例要高得多。
07:47
In some fragile cities,
134
455627
1519
在某些脆弱的城市裡，
07:49
75 percent of the population
is under the age of 30.
is under the age of 30.
135
457146
3581
75%人口年齡在30歲以下，
07:52
Think about that:
Three in four people are under 30.
Three in four people are under 30.
136
460727
4752
想想看每 4 個人就有 3 個人不到 30 歲，
07:57
It's like Palo Alto on steroids.
137
465479
2845
那就像是打了類固醇的「帕羅奧圖」市
(美國加州之城市)
(美國加州之城市)
08:00
Now, if you look at Mogadishu for example,
138
468324
2740
看看摩加迪休——東非索馬利首都
08:03
in Mogadishu the mean age is 16 years old.
139
471064
4110
在摩加迪休，平均年齡是16歲，
08:07
Ditto for Dhaka, Dili and Kabul.
140
475174
2902
達卡、帝力、喀布爾等也是如此，
08:10
And Tokyo? It's 46.
141
478076
2752
東京呢？平均年齡46歲！
08:12
Same for most Western European cities.
142
480828
3401
大部分西歐城市亦一樣。
08:16
Now, it's not just youth
that necessarily predicts violence.
that necessarily predicts violence.
143
484229
3180
不是年輕人多就會帶來暴力。
08:19
That's one factor among many,
144
487409
2044
那是許多因素的其中一項，
08:21
but youthfulness combined
with unemployment, lack of education,
with unemployment, lack of education,
145
489453
2976
但如果年輕，再加上失業、缺乏教育，
08:24
and -- this is the kicker --
being male, is a deadly proposition.
being male, is a deadly proposition.
146
492429
4106
最要不得的是作為男性，
這是一個最致命的前提，
這是一個最致命的前提，
08:28
They're statistically correlated,
all those risk factors, with youth,
all those risk factors, with youth,
147
496535
3501
這些因素都是統計學上的相關因素
08:32
and they tend to relate
to increases in violence.
to increases in violence.
148
500036
3127
這些風險因素發生在青年身上，
會使暴力發生率上升。
會使暴力發生率上升。
08:36
Now, for those of you who are
parents of teenage sons,
parents of teenage sons,
149
504033
3325
在座如果有兒子處於青少年階段，
08:39
you know what I'm talking about, right?
150
507358
1946
就會懂我的意思。
08:41
Just imagine your boy
without any structure
without any structure
151
509304
2910
想像你的男孩一點規矩也沒有，
08:44
with those unruly friends of his,
out there cavorting about.
out there cavorting about.
152
512214
3701
與那些不受管束的朋友一起，
四處闖鬧。
四處闖鬧。
08:47
Now, take away the parents,
153
515915
2191
再想像他們沒有了父母，
08:50
take away the education,
limit the education possibilities,
limit the education possibilities,
154
518106
4370
沒有受到教育，
教育機會受到限制，
教育機會受到限制，
08:54
sprinkle in a little bit of drugs,
alcohol and guns,
alcohol and guns,
155
522476
3245
加一點毒品、酒水、槍械進來，
08:57
and sit back and watch the fireworks.
156
525721
3203
想想他們會變成什麼樣子。
09:00
The implications are disconcerting.
157
528924
2097
後果可能是不堪設想的。
09:03
Right here in Brazil,
the life expectancy is 73.6 years.
the life expectancy is 73.6 years.
158
531021
3515
在巴西這邊
預期壽命是73.6歲，
預期壽命是73.6歲，
09:06
If you live in Rio, I'm sorry,
shave off two right there.
shave off two right there.
159
534536
3675
如果你住在里約熱內盧的話
抱歉，減兩歲。
抱歉，減兩歲。
09:10
But if you're young, you're uneducated,
160
538211
2287
但是如果你是年輕人、沒唸過書、
09:12
you lack employment,
you're black, and you're male,
you're black, and you're male,
161
540498
2514
找不到工作、黑人、又是男性，
09:15
your life expectancy drops
to less than 60 years old.
to less than 60 years old.
162
543012
3212
你的預期壽命要下降到60歲以下，
09:18
There's a reason why youthfulness
and violence are the number one killers
and violence are the number one killers
163
546224
4857
年輕和暴力是這個國家的頭號殺手，
09:23
in this country.
164
551081
2341
這是有原因的。
09:25
Okay, so it's not all doom
and gloom in our cities.
and gloom in our cities.
165
553422
3274
我們的城市並不全然都是厄運和絕望，
09:28
After all, cities are hubs of innovation,
166
556696
2368
畢竟城市是創新的溫床，
09:31
dynamism, prosperity,
excitement, connectivity.
excitement, connectivity.
167
559064
3589
充滿活力、前景、刺激、人際關係。
09:34
They're where the smart people gather.
168
562653
2252
它們是有腦筋的人的聚集之地，
09:36
And those young people I just mentioned,
169
564905
1941
還有那些我剛提到的年輕人，
09:38
they're more digitally savvy
and tech-aware than ever before.
and tech-aware than ever before.
170
566846
3644
他們比以前所有的人還要
更精通數位、瞭解科技，
更精通數位、瞭解科技，
09:42
And this explosion, the Internet,
and mobile technology,
and mobile technology,
171
570490
3574
科技爆炸、網路、移動通信技術
09:46
means that the digital divide
separating the North and the South
separating the North and the South
172
574064
3715
使南北部地區國家之間的
數位技術差異逐步縮小，
數位技術差異逐步縮小，
也使國內的數碼技術差異
逐步縮小。
逐步縮小。
09:49
between countries
and within them, is shrinking.
and within them, is shrinking.
173
577779
3244
09:53
But as we've heard so many times,
174
581029
1615
不過就如同我們常聽到的，
09:54
these new technologies
are dual-edged, right?
are dual-edged, right?
175
582644
2732
這些新科技是雙面刃，
09:57
Take the case of law enforcement.
176
585376
2143
拿執法來舉例。
09:59
Police around the world are starting
to use remote sensing and big data
to use remote sensing and big data
177
587519
3587
全球的警察開始使用
遙感技術和海量數據來預測犯罪。
遙感技術和海量數據來預測犯罪。
10:03
to anticipate crime.
178
591106
1595
一些警察能夠在犯罪發生前
就預測到罪犯的暴力行為。
就預測到罪犯的暴力行為。
10:04
Some cops are able to predict
criminal violence before it even happens.
criminal violence before it even happens.
179
592701
4420
10:09
The future crime scenario,
it's here today,
it's here today,
180
597121
3405
將來犯罪的場景，
今天可以預見，
今天可以預見，
10:12
and we've got to be careful.
181
600526
1500
我們得要小心注意，
10:14
We have to manage the issues
of the public safety
of the public safety
182
602026
2295
我們必須協調好公共安全問題
10:16
against rights to individual privacy.
183
604321
2666
防止個人隱私權利受到侵害。
10:18
But it's not just the cops
who are innovating.
who are innovating.
184
606987
2151
不過不只是警察們在革新，
10:21
We've heard extraordinary activities
of civil society groups
of civil society groups
185
609138
2844
我們也聽過社會公民團體卓越的行動，
10:23
who are engaging in local
and global collective action,
and global collective action,
186
611982
3135
參與了當地和國際串聯行動，
10:27
and this is leading to digital protest
and real revolution.
and real revolution.
187
615117
3833
那帶來了數位化的抗議和真實的革命。
10:31
But most worrying
of all are criminal gangs
of all are criminal gangs
188
619740
3396
不過最令人擔憂的是
犯罪團體利用網絡
開始侵略網絡空間。
開始侵略網絡空間。
10:35
who are going online
and starting to colonize cyberspace.
and starting to colonize cyberspace.
189
623136
2909
10:38
In Ciudad Juárez in Mexico,
where I've been working,
where I've been working,
190
626045
3132
在我工作的墨西哥華雷斯城，
10:41
groups like the Zetas
and the Sinaloa cartel
and the Sinaloa cartel
191
629177
2354
像是「賽塔斯」和「錫那羅亞」
這些卡特爾組織團體
這些卡特爾組織團體
10:43
are hijacking social media.
192
631531
1621
正控制著社群媒體，
10:45
They're using it to recruit,
to sell their products,
to sell their products,
193
633152
2584
他們利用社交媒體來招兵買馬，
販賣他們的產品，
販賣他們的產品，
10:47
to coerce, to intimidate and to kill.
194
635736
2230
脅迫、恐嚇和殺害他人。
10:49
Violence is going virtual.
195
637966
3183
暴亂正要進入虛擬化，
10:53
So this is just a partial sketch
196
641149
2133
現今形勢多變複雜
10:55
of a fast-moving and dynamic
and complex situation.
and complex situation.
197
643282
2676
這不過是其中一面。
10:57
I mean, there are many other megarisks
198
645958
1849
巨大風險還有許多，
10:59
that are going to define
fragility in our time,
fragility in our time,
199
647807
2435
並且會直接影響我們時代的脆弱性，
11:02
not least income inequality,
200
650242
1899
也會影響當今的收入不均、
11:04
poverty, climate change, impunity.
201
652141
3738
貧窮、氣候變化、
罪犯逍遙法外等問題。
罪犯逍遙法外等問題。
11:07
But we're facing a stark dilemma
202
655879
2345
但我們面臨著一個嚴峻的窘境：
11:10
where some cities are going to thrive
and drive global growth
and drive global growth
203
658224
4059
有些城市會繁榮發展
促進全球的進步，
促進全球的進步，
11:14
and others are going to stumble
and pull it backwards.
and pull it backwards.
204
662283
2936
但也有城市會障礙重重
拉大家的後腿。
拉大家的後腿。
11:17
If we're going to change course,
we need to start a conversation.
we need to start a conversation.
205
665219
3226
想要改變結局，
我們就必需開始新對話，
我們就必需開始新對話，
11:20
We can't only focus
on those cities that work,
on those cities that work,
206
668445
2991
我們不能只注重那些成功的城市：
11:23
the Singapores, the Kuala Lumpurs,
207
671436
2508
像新加坡、吉隆坡、
11:25
the Dubais, the Shanghais.
208
673944
1880
杜拜、上海等等，
11:27
We've got to bring those fragile cities
into the conversation.
into the conversation.
209
675824
4204
我們要與脆弱城市對話。
11:32
One way to do this might be
to start twinning
to start twinning
210
680028
2530
方法之一可以是
將我們較健康富有的城市
與較脆弱的城市配對，
與較脆弱的城市配對，
11:34
our fragile cities with our healthier
and wealthier ones,
and wealthier ones,
211
682558
2740
11:37
kickstarting a process of learning
and collaboration
and collaboration
212
685298
2513
展開學習與合作的過程，
11:39
and sharing of practices,
of what works and what doesn't.
of what works and what doesn't.
213
687811
4239
分享經驗，成功與失敗的經驗。
11:44
A wonderful example of this is coming
from El Salvador and Los Angeles,
from El Salvador and Los Angeles,
214
692050
3592
一個很好的例子是
薩爾瓦多和洛杉磯。
薩爾瓦多和洛杉磯。
11:47
where the mayors in San Salvador
and Los Angeles are collaborating
and Los Angeles are collaborating
215
695642
4160
聖薩爾瓦多市長和洛杉磯市長攜手合作
11:51
on getting ex-gang members
to work with current gang members,
to work with current gang members,
216
699802
3953
讓從前的幫派份子與
現在的幫派份子協力合作，
現在的幫派份子協力合作，
11:55
offering tutoring, education,
217
703755
2788
給予他們引導與教育，
11:58
and in the process are helping
incubate cease-fires and truces,
incubate cease-fires and truces,
218
706543
3320
在這個過程中幫助催生了
停火和休戰協定，
停火和休戰協定，
12:01
and we've seen homicide rates
go down in San Salvador,
go down in San Salvador,
219
709863
2547
聖薩爾瓦多的兇殺率顯著下降了，
12:04
once the world's most violent city,
220
712410
1823
過去世界上最暴力的城市，
兇殺率下降五成。
兇殺率下降五成。
12:06
by 50 percent.
221
714233
1644
12:07
We can also focus
on hot cities, but also hot spots.
on hot cities, but also hot spots.
222
715877
2549
我們也可以關注熱門城市、熱門地點。
12:10
Place and location matter fundamentally
in shaping violence in our cities.
in shaping violence in our cities.
223
718426
4302
地點對城市暴力形成有著根本影響。
12:14
Did you know that between
one and two percent
one and two percent
224
722728
2555
你是否知道在任一脆弱城市裡
12:17
of street addresses in any fragile city
225
725283
2065
1 - 2%的街道地址
12:19
can predict up to 99 percent
of violent crime?
of violent crime?
226
727348
3702
可以預知到 99 %的暴力違法，
12:23
Take the case of São Paulo,
where I've been working.
where I've been working.
227
731050
2564
以我工作過的聖保羅市為例，
12:25
It's gone from being Brazil's most
dangerous city to one of its safest,
dangerous city to one of its safest,
228
733614
3753
它從巴西最危險的城市變成最安全的，
12:29
and it did this by doubling down
229
737367
1959
它做到如此是透過加倍於
12:31
on information collection,
hot spot mapping, and police reform,
hot spot mapping, and police reform,
230
739326
3231
資訊蒐集、熱點標誌、警政改革等，
12:34
and in the process, it dropped homicide
by 70 percent in just over 10 years.
by 70 percent in just over 10 years.
231
742557
5038
僅 10 年過程中
降低了70 %的謀殺率，
降低了70 %的謀殺率，
12:39
We also got to focus on those hot people.
232
747595
2455
我們也鎖定了那些鋒頭人物。
12:42
It's tragic, but being young,
unemployed, uneducated, male,
unemployed, uneducated, male,
233
750050
4089
年輕、失業、無教育、男性
12:46
increases the risks
of being killed and killing.
of being killed and killing.
234
754139
3997
雖然不幸，但卻可增加
被人殺害或殺害他人的機率。
被人殺害或殺害他人的機率。
12:50
We have to break this cycle of violence
235
758136
2685
我們必須打斷這個暴力的循環，
12:52
and get in there early with our children,
our youngest children,
our youngest children,
236
760821
3334
盡早與兒童和青年相處，
12:56
and valorize them, not stigmatize them.
237
764155
2609
給予認可
而非將他們冠上惡名。
而非將他們冠上惡名。
12:59
There's wonderful work that's happening
that I've been involved with
that I've been involved with
238
767214
3370
最近我在致力的一項工作
13:02
in Kingston, Jamaica
and right here in Rio,
and right here in Rio,
239
770584
2291
在牙買加的金士頓市，
還有里約這裡，
還有里約這裡，
13:04
which is putting education,
employment, recreation
employment, recreation
240
772875
3298
把教育、工作、娛樂
帶給這些高風險人群，
帶給這些高風險人群，
13:08
up front for these high-risk groups,
241
776173
2156
13:10
and as a result, we're seeing violence
going down in their communities.
going down in their communities.
242
778329
3355
因此這些社區的暴力下降了。
13:13
We've also got to make our cities safer,
more inclusive, and livable for all.
more inclusive, and livable for all.
243
781684
3678
我們也發現城市變得
更加安全，更加包容，更加宜居。
更加安全，更加包容，更加宜居。
13:17
The fact is, social cohesion matters.
244
785362
3767
事實是社會的團結很關鍵，
13:21
Mobility matters in our cities.
245
789129
2480
流動性在我們的城市很關鍵，
13:23
We've got to get away from this model
of segregation, exclusion,
of segregation, exclusion,
246
791609
3070
我們必須要讓我們的城市
遠離種族隔離、排斥他人的模式。
遠離種族隔離、排斥他人的模式。
13:26
and cities with walls.
247
794679
1416
13:28
My favorite example of how to do this
comes from Medellín.
comes from Medellín.
248
796095
2810
一個很好的例子是麥德林。
13:30
When I lived in Colombia
in the late 1990s,
in the late 1990s,
249
798905
2005
90 年代末期時我住在哥倫比亞，
13:32
Medellín was the murder capital
of the world, but it changed course,
of the world, but it changed course,
250
800910
3631
麥德林是當時世界經典的兇殺城市，
但是這個城市後來改變了，
但是這個城市後來改變了，
13:36
and it did this by deliberately investing
in its low-income and most violent areas
in its low-income and most violent areas
251
804541
4259
因為刻意投資在低收入高暴力的地區
13:40
and integrating them
with the middle-class ones
with the middle-class ones
252
808800
2408
與中等區域相整合，
13:43
through a network of cable cars,
253
811208
1672
通過纜車網絡的接駁、
13:44
of public transport,
and first-class infrastructure,
and first-class infrastructure,
254
812880
2647
大眾交通的聯繫、
一流基礎設施的投入，
一流基礎設施的投入，
13:47
and in the process, it dropped homicide
by 79 percent in just under two decades.
by 79 percent in just under two decades.
255
815527
4822
該城市在此二十年內
兇殺率下降79%。
兇殺率下降79%。
13:52
And finally, there's technology.
256
820349
2040
最後還有科技，
13:55
Technology has enormous
promise but also peril.
promise but also peril.
257
823119
2782
科技具有絕佳的榮景，
也有巨大的危害。
也有巨大的危害。
13:57
We've seen examples here
of extraordinary innovation,
of extraordinary innovation,
258
825901
2548
我們在此見過不少了不起的創新例子，
14:00
and much of it coming from this room,
259
828449
1793
絕大部分是出自於這裡；
14:02
The police are engaging
in predictive analytics.
in predictive analytics.
260
830242
2368
警察參與了預測分析、
14:04
Citizens are engaging
in new crowdsourcing solutions.
in new crowdsourcing solutions.
261
832610
2590
市民致力於新的公眾解決方案。
14:07
Even my own group is involved
in developing applications
in developing applications
262
835200
2647
我自己的隊伍也在開發程序，
14:09
to provide more accountability over police
and increase safety among citizens.
and increase safety among citizens.
263
837847
4352
提供更多可信破案資訊，
為市民帶來更多安全。
為市民帶來更多安全。
14:14
But we need to be careful.
264
842199
2408
可是我們得謹慎小心，
14:17
If I have one single
message for you, it's this:
message for you, it's this:
265
845687
3389
如果我可以向您傳達一個訊息，那會是：
14:21
There is nothing inevitable
about lethal violence,
about lethal violence,
266
849076
3485
致命的暴亂沒有說是不可避免的，
14:24
and we can make our cities safer.
267
852561
4751
我們可以讓我們的城市更安全，
14:29
Folks, we have the opportunity
of a lifetime to drop homicidal violence
of a lifetime to drop homicidal violence
268
857312
6046
在座各位，我們現在有機會
在我們有生之年
將兇殺率減少一半。
將兇殺率減少一半。
14:35
in half within our lifetime.
269
863358
2647
14:38
So I have just one question:
270
866005
1733
所以我只有一個問題：
14:39
What are we waiting for?
271
867738
1545
我們還在等什麼?
14:41
Thank you.
272
869283
1784
謝謝你們！
14:43
(Applause)
273
871067
4253
(掌聲)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Robert Muggah - Megacities expertRobert Muggah creates tools to understand cycles of violence in urban environments and opens dialogues on ways to confront them globally.
Why you should listen
Robert Muggah drills down through shadowy data on arms trafficking, urban violence and resilience in search of answers for a rapidly urbanizing society’s most troubling questions: Why are cities so violent, and increasingly fragile? Why are conflicts within nations replacing conflicts between them? And what strategies can we implement to reduce violence?
Muggah's high-tech toolkit includes new ways for citizens to collect, collate and understand data, such as the mapping arms data (MAD) tool. As the research director of the Igarapé Institute and the SecDev Foundation, he developed the tool in collaboration with the Peace Research Institute Oslo and with Google Ideas, winning accolades for the transparency it brings to the debate.
Robert Muggah | Speaker | TED.com