TEDGlobal 2010
Steven Johnson: Where good ideas come from
史蒂芬·约翰逊：好想法从哪来
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人们经常把他们的想法归功于“灵感”片刻。但史蒂芬·约翰逊给我们展示出历史上的反例。他讲述了16世纪英国伦敦咖啡馆所体现的“液态网络”，达尔文发现进化论之前的长期酝酿以及当今高速互联的网络的故事，皆十分引人入胜。
Steven Johnson - Writer
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio
Steven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Just a few minutes ago, I took this picture
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就在几分钟前，我在离这里大约十条街的地方
00:18
about 10 blocks from here.
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拍了这张照片。
00:20
This is the Grand Cafe here in Oxford.
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这是牛津这里的大咖啡馆。
00:23
I took this picture because this turns out to be
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我拍这张照片是因为它年代久远
00:26
the first coffeehouse to open
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始建于1650年，是英国第一个
00:28
in England in 1650.
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咖啡馆
00:30
That's its great claim to fame,
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相当有名。
00:32
and I wanted to show it to you,
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我想展示给你照片，
00:34
not because I want to give you the kind of Starbucks tour
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不是因为我想给你星巴克式的
00:36
of historic England,
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英国历史回顾，
00:38
but rather because
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而是因为
00:40
the English coffeehouse was crucial
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在过去500年间， 英国咖啡馆对
00:42
to the development and spread
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所谓的启蒙运动
00:45
of one of the great intellectual flowerings of the last 500 years,
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发展和传播
00:48
what we now call the Enlightenment.
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起到至关
00:51
And the coffeehouse played such a big role
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重要的
00:53
in the birth of the Enlightenment,
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作用。
00:55
in part, because of what people were drinking there.
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究其原因，部分是因为人在那里喝的东西。
00:57
Because, before the spread
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因为，在咖啡和茶在英国文化中
01:00
of coffee and tea through British culture,
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广泛传播前，
01:03
what people drank -- both elite and mass folks drank --
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无论是精英与大众
01:06
day-in and day-out, from dawn until dusk
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每天从黎明到黄昏
01:08
was alcohol.
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人们喝的是酒
01:10
Alcohol was the daytime beverage of choice.
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酒是白天的首选饮料。
01:12
You would drink a little beer with breakfast and have a little wine at lunch,
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在1650年左右，早餐你会喝一点啤酒，午餐喝一点葡萄酒，
01:15
a little gin -- particularly around 1650 --
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晚上来一点杜松子酒，
01:18
and top it off with a little beer and wine at the end of the day.
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并在这一天结束时喝啤酒和葡萄酒。
01:20
That was the healthy choice -- right --
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那时水是不能饮用的，
01:22
because the water wasn't safe to drink.
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因此酒是健康的选择。
01:24
And so, effectively until the rise of the coffeehouse,
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基本上，在咖啡馆的兴起前，
01:27
you had an entire population
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所有人整天
01:29
that was effectively drunk all day.
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都醉醺醺的。
01:32
And you can imagine what that would be like, right, in your own life --
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而你能想象你的生活会是什么样子，
01:34
and I know this is true of some of you --
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我知道对于你们中的一些是真的 -
01:36
if you were drinking all day,
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如果你喝了一整天，
01:39
and then you switched from a depressant to a stimulant in your life,
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然后放下这个抑制剂，改成别的使你兴奋的饮料
01:42
you would have better ideas.
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你会更好的想法。
01:44
You would be sharper and more alert.
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你会更清晰，更警觉。
01:46
And so it's not an accident that a great flowering of innovation happened
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所以当英格兰人改喝茶和咖啡后
01:49
as England switched to tea and coffee.
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创新的兴起就不是一个意外了
01:52
But the other thing that makes the coffeehouse important
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但是，其他的东西如咖啡馆
01:55
is the architecture of the space.
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空间结构也很重要。
01:57
It was a space where people would get together
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在这里，来自不同背景
01:59
from different backgrounds,
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不同专业领域的人们
02:01
different fields of expertise, and share.
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分享想法。
02:03
It was a space, as Matt Ridley talked about, where ideas could have sex.
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如马特雷德利谈到， 在这里，想法交织在一起。
02:06
This was their conjugal bed, in a sense --
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在一定意义上，这是它们的夫妻床。
02:08
ideas would get together there.
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想法将聚在一起。
02:10
And an astonishing number of innovations from this period
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而这一时期的数量惊人的创新
02:13
have a coffeehouse somewhere in their story.
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发源于咖啡馆。
02:16
I've been spending a lot of time thinking about coffeehouses
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在过去的五年我花了很多
02:19
for the last five years,
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时间思考咖啡馆，
02:21
because I've been kind of on this quest
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因为我一直
02:23
to investigate this question
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试图
02:25
of where good ideas come from.
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找到好点子的来源。
02:27
What are the environments
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哪些环境因素
02:29
that lead to unusual levels of innovation,
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导致不寻常水平的创新，
02:32
unusual levels of creativity?
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不寻常水平的创造？
02:35
What's the kind of environmental --
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有什么样的环境
02:37
what is the space of creativity?
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什么是创造力的空间？
02:39
And what I've done is
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而我所做的就是
02:41
I've looked at both environments like the coffeehouse;
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我观察环境，如咖啡馆;
02:43
I've looked at media environments, like the world wide web,
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媒体环境，如万维网
02:45
that have been extraordinarily innovative;
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已经非常有创新性;
02:47
I've gone back to the history of the first cities;
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我又回过头来看早期城市的历史;
02:50
I've even gone to biological environments,
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我还观察了生物环境
02:52
like coral reefs and rainforests,
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如珊瑚礁和热带雨林，
02:54
that involve unusual levels of biological innovation;
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那里有超凡的生物创新;
02:57
and what I've been looking for is shared patterns,
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我一直在寻找的是它们共通的模式
03:00
kind of signature behavior that shows up
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一种标志性的行为
03:02
again and again in all of these environments.
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一次又一次显示在这些环境中。
03:05
Are there recurring patterns that we can learn from,
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是否我们可以从这些不断重复的模式中学到东西
03:08
that we can take and kind of apply to our own lives,
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进而可以应用于我们自己的生活，
03:10
or our own organizations,
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或组织，
03:12
or our own environments to make them more creative and innovative?
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或环境，使他们更具有创造力和创新力？
03:14
And I think I've found a few.
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我想我已经找到了一些。
03:16
But what you have to do to make sense of this
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但是你为了
03:19
and to really understand these principles
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真正理解这些原则，
03:21
is you have to do away
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你必须做的是远离
03:23
with a lot of the way in which our conventional metaphors and language
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我们传统的方式的隐喻和语言
03:26
steers us towards
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引导我们
03:28
certain concepts of idea-creation.
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到某些想法产生的概念。
03:30
We have this very rich vocabulary
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我们已有非常丰富的词汇
03:32
to describe moments of inspiration.
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来形容的灵感瞬间。
03:34
We have the kind of the flash of insight,
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比如我们有闪光
03:37
the stroke of insight,
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洞悉，
03:39
we have epiphanies, we have "eureka!" moments,
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顿悟，“我发现了！”瞬间，
03:42
we have the lightbulb moments, right?
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我们有灯泡时刻，对吗？
03:44
All of these concepts,
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所有这些概念，
03:46
as kind of rhetorically florid as they are,
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作为一种华丽修辞，
03:49
share this basic assumption,
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分享一个基本假设，
03:51
which is that an idea is a single thing,
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那就是一想法是一个单一的事情，
03:54
it's something that happens often
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灵感经常发生在
03:56
in a wonderful illuminating moment.
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一个美妙的照亮时刻。
03:59
But in fact, what I would argue and what you really need to kind of begin with
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但事实上，我会说，首先你得理解
04:02
is this idea that an idea is a network
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想法是一个网络
04:05
on the most elemental level.
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最基本的就是一个网络
04:07
I mean, this is what is happening inside your brain.
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它就是在你的大脑里发生的事情。
04:09
An idea -- a new idea -- is a new network of neurons
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一个想法，一个新的想法，是一种新的大脑神经元
04:12
firing in sync with each other inside your brain.
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互相同步放电的网络
04:15
It's a new configuration that has never formed before.
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一个从来没有形成过的新的配置。
04:18
And the question is: how do you get your brain into environments
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而问题是：你如何将要你的大脑进入环境中，
04:21
where these new networks are going to be more likely to form?
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更可能的形成这些新的网络？
04:24
And it turns out that, in fact, the kind of network patterns of the outside world
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而事实证明，对外部世界的网络模式，
04:27
mimic a lot of the network patterns
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模仿了很多人脑的
04:29
of the internal world of the human brain.
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内部世界的网络。
04:32
So the metaphor I'd like the use
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所以，我想用一个伟大想法的
04:34
I can take
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故事举例，
04:36
from a story of a great idea that's quite recent --
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是相当近期的-
04:39
a lot more recent than the 1650s.
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比1650年代近得多。
04:43
A wonderful guy named Timothy Prestero,
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有个人叫提摩太·普莱斯泰罗的人
04:45
who has a company called ... an organization called Design That Matters.
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他拥有一家名为设计关键的公司。
04:48
They decided to tackle this really pressing problem
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他们有一个非常迫切的问题来解决，
04:53
of, you know, the terrible problems we have with infant mortality rates
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即发展中世界的婴儿死亡率
04:55
in the developing world.
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较高的问题。
04:57
One of the things that's very frustrating about this is that we know,
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其中令人沮丧的东西是，
05:00
by getting modern neonatal incubators
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我们知道在任何情况下，
05:03
into any context,
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现代新生儿恒温箱
05:05
if we can keep premature babies warm, basically -- it's very simple --
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保持早产儿温暖，基本上 - 非常简单地，
05:08
we can halve infant mortality rates in those environments.
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我们可以在这些环境里使婴儿死亡率减半。
05:11
So, the technology is there.
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因此，技术上是可行的。
05:13
These are standard in all the industrialized worlds.
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这些是所有工业化世界的标准。
05:16
The problem is, if you buy a $40,000 incubator,
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问题是，如果你买了4万美元的保温箱，
05:19
and you send it off
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你把它送到
05:21
to a mid-sized village in Africa,
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非洲的中型村庄，
05:23
it will work great for a year or two years,
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它能正常工作一年，或两年，
05:25
and then something will go wrong and it will break,
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然后某件东西会出问题，机器将破损，
05:28
and it will remain broken forever,
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因为你没有整个系统的备件，
05:30
because you don't have a whole system of spare parts,
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它将永久破损，
05:33
and you don't have the on-the-ground expertise
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并且你没有当地专业人员来维修
05:35
to fix this $40,000 piece of equipment.
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这种4万美元的设备。
05:37
And so you end up having this problem where you spend all this money
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所以你最终有这个问题，你把所有钱
05:39
getting aid and all these advanced electronics to these countries,
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用于获得援助和运送这些先进的电子设备的钱到这些国家，
05:42
and then it ends up being useless.
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而它最终失去使用价值。
05:44
So what Prestero and his team decided to do
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那么莱斯泰罗和他的团队决定做的是研究：
05:46
is to look around and see: what are the abundant resources
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在这些发展中世界的背景下，什么资源
05:49
in these developing world contexts?
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是丰富的？
05:51
And what they noticed was they don't have a lot of DVRs,
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他们注意到的是那里没有很多的数字录像机
05:54
they don't have a lot of microwaves,
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没有很多的微波炉，
05:56
but they seem to do a pretty good job of keeping their cars on the road.
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但似乎他们的汽车保养得很好。
05:59
There's a Toyota Forerunner
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在这些地方，到处都有丰田的
06:01
on the street in all these places.
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越野车。
06:03
They seem to have the expertise to keep cars working.
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他们有养汽车的专业技能。
06:06
So they started to think,
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于是他们开始思考，
06:08
"Could we build a neonatal incubator
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“我们能不能做一个完全
06:10
that's built entirely out of automobile parts?"
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是用汽车零部件组装的新生儿恒温箱？”
06:13
And this is what they ended up coming with.
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而这是他们最后想出的。
06:15
It's called a "neonurture device."
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这就是霓虹育儿设备。
06:17
From the outside, it looks like a normal little thing
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从外面看，它就像一个会在一个
06:19
you'd find in a modern, Western hospital.
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现代化西方医院找到的普通小东西。
06:21
In the inside, it's all car parts.
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在它里面，全由汽车零部件组成。
06:23
It's got a fan, it's got headlights for warmth,
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它有一个风扇，有取暖灯，
06:25
it's got door chimes for alarm --
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有门报警钟。
06:27
it runs off a car battery.
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它靠一个汽车电池运行。
06:29
And so all you need is the spare parts from your Toyota
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因此只要你有丰田汽车的零部件，
06:31
and the ability to fix a headlight,
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和修复大灯的技术，
06:33
and you can repair this thing.
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你就可以修复它。
06:35
Now, that's a great idea, but what I'd like to say is that, in fact,
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现在，这是一个好主意，但我想说的是，事实上，
06:38
this is a great metaphor for the way that ideas happen.
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它很好地隐喻了想法发生的方式。
06:40
We like to think our breakthrough ideas, you know,
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我们喜欢认为我们突破性的想法，你知道，
06:42
are like that $40,000, brand new incubator,
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就是这样的4万美元，全新的育儿箱，
06:44
state-of-the-art technology,
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有最先进的技术，
06:46
but more often than not, they're cobbled together
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但往往不是，它们是由周围
06:48
from whatever parts that happen to be around nearby.
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随便什么地方的零件拼凑起来的。
06:50
We take ideas from other people,
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我们从别人获取想法，
06:52
from people we've learned from, from people we run into in the coffee shop,
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从我们所研究的人身上，从我们在咖啡厅里碰到的人
06:55
and we stitch them together into new forms and we create something new.
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然后我们把它们融合成新的形式，来创造新的东西。
06:58
That's really where innovation happens.
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这才是创新发生的地方。
07:01
And that means that we have to change some of our models
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这意味着我们必须改变目前的真正的创新
07:03
of what innovation and deep thinking really looks like, right.
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和深入思考某些机制，是的。
07:06
I mean, this is one vision of it.
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我的意思是，这是一种观念。
07:08
Another is Newton and the apple, when Newton was at Cambridge.
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另一例子是在剑桥的牛顿和苹果的故事。
07:11
This is a statue from Oxford.
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这是在牛津的一座雕像。
07:13
You know, you're sitting there thinking a deep thought,
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你知道，当你坐在那里深刻地思考，
07:15
and the apple falls from the tree, and you have the theory of gravity.
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这时苹果从树上坠落，于是你发现了重力理论。
07:18
In fact, the spaces that have historically led to innovation
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事实上，曾经在历史上产生创新发展的空间
07:21
tend to look like this, right.
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往往是这样的，没错。
07:23
This is Hogarth's famous painting of a kind of political dinner at a tavern,
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这是荷加斯的一张酒馆吃饭那种政治名画，
07:26
but this is what the coffee shops looked like back then.
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但是这就是当时的咖啡馆的样子
07:29
This is the kind of chaotic environment
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在混乱的环境中，
07:31
where ideas were likely to come together,
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想法有可能走到一起
07:33
where people were likely to have
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来自不同背景的人很可能有
07:35
new, interesting, unpredictable collisions -- people from different backgrounds.
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新的，有趣的，不可预测的碰撞。
07:38
So, if we're trying to build organizations that are more innovative,
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因此，如果我们试图建立更具有创意的组织，
07:40
we have to build spaces that -- strangely enough -- look a little bit more like this.
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我们要建设的空间，奇怪的是，看起来有点像这一点。
07:43
This is what your office should look like,
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你的办公室应是这样子
07:45
is part of my message here.
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这是我想表达的。
07:47
And one of the problems with this is that
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当你研究这个领域，
07:49
people are actually -- when you research this field --
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而与此的问题之一是，
07:52
people are notoriously unreliable,
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人们实际上是 众所周知的不可靠，
07:54
when they actually kind of self-report
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他们有自己的好想法，
07:56
on where they have their own good ideas,
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或者其历史上的最好的想法，他们真正的
07:58
or their history of their best ideas.
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自我报告。
08:00
And a few years ago, a wonderful researcher named Kevin Dunbar
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而在几年前，一个研究员叫凯文·邓巴
08:03
decided to go around
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决定去
08:05
and basically do the Big Brother approach
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用大兄弟的方法找寻出
08:07
to figuring out where good ideas come from.
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好主意的来源
08:09
He went to a bunch of science labs around the world
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他去了世界各地的科学实验室，
08:12
and videotaped everyone
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给工作人员的
08:14
as they were doing every little bit of their job.
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日常工作录像。
08:16
So when they were sitting in front of the microscope,
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当他们坐在显微镜前，
08:18
when they were talking to their colleague at the water cooler, and all these things.
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当他们和同事谈论水冷却器，以及其他东西。
08:20
And he recorded all of these conversations
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他记录了所有这些谈话，
08:22
and tried to figure out where the most important ideas,
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试图找出在哪里产生
08:24
where they happened.
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最重要的想法。
08:26
And when we think about the classic image of the scientist in the lab,
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在实验室的科学家经典形象是，
08:29
we have this image -- you know, they're pouring over the microscope,
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他们是专注于显微镜，
08:32
and they see something in the tissue sample.
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观察一些组织样本。
08:34
And "oh, eureka," they've got the idea.
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“噢，我发现了！”他们有这个想法。
08:37
What happened actually when Dunbar kind of looked at the tape
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实际上，邓巴在磁带观察到，
08:40
is that, in fact, almost all of the important breakthrough ideas
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几乎所有的重要突破性的想法
08:43
did not happen alone in the lab, in front of the microscope.
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并不仅仅发生在实验室的显微镜的前面。
08:46
They happened at the conference table
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它们发生在每周的实验室
08:48
at the weekly lab meeting,
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会议桌上，
08:50
when everybody got together and shared their kind of latest data and findings,
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当大家聚在一起，分享他们的最新的数据和调查结果，
08:53
oftentimes when people shared the mistakes they were having,
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分享他们的错误，
08:55
the error, the noise in the signal they were discovering.
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偏差，他们发现信号的噪音。
08:58
And something about that environment --
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还有环境的一些因素
09:01
and I've started calling it the "liquid network,"
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我已经开始将其称为“液态网络”
09:03
where you have lots of different ideas that are together,
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当很多不同的想法在一起的时候
09:06
different backgrounds, different interests,
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不同背景，不同的利益，
09:08
jostling with each other, bouncing off each other --
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互相冲撞，互相反弹
09:10
that environment is, in fact,
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其实，
09:12
the environment that leads to innovation.
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是环境导致创新。
09:14
The other problem that people have
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另外一个问题是，
09:16
is they like to condense their stories of innovation down
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人们喜欢把他们的创新故事浓缩到
09:18
to kind of shorter time frames.
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较短的时间框架。
09:20
So they want to tell the story of the "eureka!" moment.
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因此，他们想告诉这个故事的“发现了！”时刻。
09:23
They want to say, "There I was, I was standing there
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他们想说的是：“我站在那里，
09:25
and I had it all suddenly clear in my head."
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在我的脑子里突然清楚有了它。”
09:27
But in fact, if you go back and look at the historical record,
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但事实上，如果你回去看看历史纪录
09:30
it turns out that a lot of important ideas
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事实证明，大量的重要思想
09:33
have very long incubation periods --
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有很长的孕育期。
09:36
I call this the "slow hunch."
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我称它为“慢的预感”。
09:38
We've heard a lot recently
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我们已经听到了
09:40
about hunch and instinct
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很多关于最近预感和本能
09:42
and blink-like sudden moments of clarity,
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明晰闪烁，像突然的时刻，
09:45
but in fact, a lot of great ideas
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但事实上，有许多伟大的想法
09:47
linger on, sometimes for decades,
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挥之不去，有时在人们的心中
09:49
in the back of people's minds.
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长达几十年。
09:51
They have a feeling that there's an interesting problem,
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他们花这么长的时间对某些问题的工作，
09:53
but they don't quite have the tools yet to discover them.
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但还有另一个
09:56
They spend all this time working on certain problems,
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挥之不去
09:59
but there's another thing lingering there
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的东西，
10:01
that they're interested in, but they can't quite solve.
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他们感兴趣，但他们不能完全解决。
10:03
Darwin is a great example of this.
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达尔文是一个很好的例子。
10:05
Darwin himself, in his autobiography,
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在他的自传里，
10:07
tells the story of coming up with the idea
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达尔文讲述了
10:09
for natural selection
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自然选择的产生，
10:11
as a classic "eureka!" moment.
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作为一个典型的“发现！”时刻。
10:13
He's in his study,
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1838年十月份的，
10:15
it's October of 1838,
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他在他的书房里，
10:17
and he's reading Malthus, actually, on population.
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阅读马尔萨斯的人口论。
10:19
And all of a sudden,
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突然间，
10:21
the basic algorithm of natural selection kind of pops into his head
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自然选择的基本算法在他脑海里浮现，
10:24
and he says, "Ah, at last, I had a theory with which to work."
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他说：“哦，我终于有一个合理的理论了“。
10:27
That's in his autobiography.
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这就是他的自传中描述的。
10:29
About a decade or two ago,
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大约十年或二十年前，
10:31
a wonderful scholar named Howard Gruber went back
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有个学者叫霍华德·格鲁伯
10:33
and looked at Darwin's notebooks from this period.
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他在流览达尔文这一时期的笔记本
10:36
And Darwin kept these copious notebooks
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达尔文保留下丰富的笔记，
10:38
where he wrote down every little idea he had, every little hunch.
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他写下了他的每一点想法，每个小预感。
10:41
And what Gruber found was
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格鲁伯发现，1838年10月
10:43
that Darwin had the full theory of natural selection
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达尔文在阅读马尔萨斯著作
10:46
for months and months and months
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并顿悟数月之前，
10:48
before he had his alleged epiphany,
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已有了自然选择的
10:50
reading Malthus in October of 1838.
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充分理论。
10:53
There are passages where you can read it,
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你可以阅读段落，
10:55
and you think you're reading from a Darwin textbook,
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你以为你是从达尔文教科书阅读，
10:58
from the period before he has this epiphany.
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从他有这个顿悟之前的一段期间。
11:01
And so what you realize is that Darwin, in a sense,
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你了解到，在某种意义上说，
11:03
had the idea, he had the concept,
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达尔文有了想法，他有了概念，
11:05
but was unable of fully thinking it yet.
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但尚未完全思考透澈。
11:08
And that is actually how great ideas often happen;
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这实际上是伟大的思想经常发生，
11:11
they fade into view over long periods of time.
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它们进入视野消失了很长一段时间。
11:13
Now the challenge for all of us is:
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现在我们所有人面临的挑战是：
11:15
how do you create environments
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你怎么创造环境
11:17
that allow these ideas to have this kind of long half-life, right?
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允许这些想法有这样长的半衰期，是吧？
11:19
It's hard to go to your boss and say,
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很难去跟你的老板说，
11:21
"I have an excellent idea for our organization.
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“我有一个好主意给我们机构。
11:23
It will be useful in 2020.
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它在2020年将见效益。
11:26
Could you just give me some time to do that?"
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你能不能给我一些时间做它呢？“
11:28
Now a couple of companies -- like Google --
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现在，有几家公司，如谷歌，
11:30
they have innovation time off, 20 percent time,
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们有创新的休息时间，百分之二十的时间，
11:32
where, in a sense, those are hunch-cultivating mechanisms in an organization.
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其中，在某种意义上，这些都是直觉的培养机制。
11:35
But that's a key thing.
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但是，这里有一个关键环节。
11:38
And the other thing is to allow those hunches
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而其他的是让那些预感
11:40
to connect with other people's hunches; that's what often happens.
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可以与其他人的预感联系，这是经常发生的事情。
11:43
You have half of an idea, somebody else has the other half,
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你有一个想法的一半，别人有另一半，
11:45
and if you're in the right environment,
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如果你们在合适的环境，
11:47
they turn into something larger than the sum of their parts.
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它们变成自己的东西比部分的总和更大。
11:49
So, in a sense,
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因此，从某种意义上说，
11:51
we often talk about the value
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我们经常谈论
11:53
of protecting intellectual property,
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知识产权的保护，
11:55
you know, building barricades,
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我们去设置障碍
11:57
having secretive R&D labs, patenting everything that we have,
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搞秘密的
12:00
so that those ideas will remain valuable,
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研发实验室
12:03
and people will be incentivized to come up with more ideas,
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并且去申请专利，保存这些想法的价值，
12:05
and the culture will be more innovative.
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我们认为这样做人们会更有动力去创新
12:08
But I think there's a case to be made
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不过，我觉得我们应该至少
12:10
that we should spend at least as much time, if not more,
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花相同多时间，甚至是更多时间
12:13
valuing the premise of connecting ideas
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去将一些人们已有的想法连接起来
12:15
and not just protecting them.
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而不仅仅是保护它们，但它们相互不得个沟通。
12:17
And I'll leave you with this story,
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我给你们讲个故事
12:19
which I think captures a lot of these values,
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我认为它体现了很多个我要表达的理念
12:22
and it's just wonderful kind of tale of innovation
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并且它是一个美妙创新的故事
12:24
and how it happens in unlikely ways.
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还有它是以不可能的方式发生的。
12:27
It's October of 1957,
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1957年10月
12:30
and Sputnik has just launched,
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人造卫星刚刚上天，
12:32
and we're in Laurel Maryland,
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在马里兰州劳雷尔的
12:34
at the applied physics lab
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应用物理实验室(APL)，
12:36
associated with Johns Hopkins University.
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约翰霍普金斯大学参予其中。
12:38
And it's Monday morning,
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一个星期一早上，
12:40
and the news has just broken about this satellite
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卫星环绕地球飞行的
12:42
that's now orbiting the planet.
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消息刚传开。
12:45
And of course, this is nerd heaven, right?
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当然，这是书呆子的天堂，对不对？
12:47
There are all these physics geeks who are there thinking,
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所有这些物理怪才在那里想：
12:49
"Oh my gosh! This is incredible. I can't believe this has happened."
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“噢，我的天哪！这是难以置信的。我无法相信这真发生了。“
12:52
And two of them,
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他们中的两个
12:54
two 20-something researchers at the APL
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二十多岁的
12:56
are there at the cafeteria table
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研究人员
12:58
having an informal conversation with a bunch of their colleagues.
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在食堂闲聊。
13:01
And these two guys are named Guier and Weiffenbach.
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他们是圭尔和维芬巴赫。
13:04
And they start talking, and one of them says,
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他们开始交谈，其中一个人说，
13:06
"Hey, has anybody tried to listen for this thing?
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“嘿，有谁试图监听这个东西吗？
13:08
There's this, you know, man-made satellite up there in outer space
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你知道，人造地球卫星在太空，
13:11
that's obviously broadcasting some kind of signal.
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显然在广播某种信号。
13:13
We could probably hear it, if we tune in."
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如果我们调对频率，我们也许可以听到它 “
13:16
And so they ask around to a couple of their colleagues,
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于是，他们四处向他们的同事打听，
13:18
and everybody's like, "No, I hadn't thought of doing that.
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大家都说，“不，我没想到这样做。
13:20
That's an interesting idea."
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这是一个有趣的想法。“
13:22
And it turns out Weiffenbach is kind of an expert
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恰巧，维芬巴赫是一个
13:25
in microwave reception,
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微波接收专家，
13:27
and he's got a little antennae set up
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在他的办公室设了
13:29
with an amplifier in his office.
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小天线与放大器。
13:31
And so Guier and Weiffenbach go back to Weiffenbach's office,
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因此圭尔和维芬巴赫回到维芬巴赫的办公室，
13:33
and they start kind of noodling around -- hacking, as we might call it now.
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开始试着与卫星联接 - 像我们现在称作黑客。
13:36
And after a couple of hours, they actually start picking up the signal,
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过了几个小时，他们真的开始找到信号
13:39
because the Soviets made Sputnik
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因为苏联的人造卫星
13:41
very easy to track.
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很容易被追踪。
13:43
It was right at 20 MHz, so you could pick it up really easily,
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就是在20兆赫，你可以真的很容易把它接受到，
13:46
because they were afraid that people would think it was a hoax, basically.
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因为他们害怕人们会觉得基本上是一个骗局。
13:48
So they made it really easy to find it.
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因此，他们把它真的很容易找到它
13:50
So these two guys are sitting there listening to this signal,
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当这两个家伙正坐在那里听来这个信号，
13:53
and people start kind of coming into the office and saying,
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人们开始到他们的办公室参观，
13:55
"Wow, that's pretty cool. Can I hear? Wow, that's great."
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说， “哇，这很酷。我能听听吗？哇，太好了。”
13:58
And before long, they think, "Well jeez, this is kind of historic.
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不久之后，他们认为，“嗯呀，这是历史性的一刻。
14:01
We may be the first people in the United States to be listening to this.
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我们可能会是在美国的听到它的第一批人。
14:03
We should record it."
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我们应该记录下来。“
14:05
And so they bring in this big, clunky analog tape recorder
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于是他们用一个大而笨重的模拟磁带录音机，
14:07
and they start recording these little bleep, bleeps.
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开始录制这些讯号。
14:10
And they start writing the kind of date stamp, time stamps
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他们开始写下每个小信号的
14:13
for each little bleep that they record.
352
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日期和时间。
14:16
And they they start thinking, "Well gosh, you know, we're noticing
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他们便开始想，“好吧天哪，你知道，我们注意到
14:18
small little frequency variations here.
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频率变化很小。
14:21
We could probably calculate the speed
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如果我们利用多普勒效应，
14:24
that the satellite is traveling,
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做一些基本的数学计算，
14:26
if we do a little basic math here
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我们也许可以计算出
14:28
using the Doppler effect."
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卫星的旅行速度。
14:30
And then they played around with it a little bit more,
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然后他们还做了别的一些尝试
14:32
and they talked to a couple of their colleagues
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而且和有其他专长的
14:34
who had other kind of specialties.
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同事交谈。
14:36
And they said, "Jeez, you know,
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他们说：“哎呀，你知道，
14:38
we think we could actually take a look at the slope of the Doppler effect
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我们觉得我们其实可以用多普勒效应的斜率，
14:40
to figure out the points at which
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算出卫星离我们的天线
14:42
the satellite is closest to our antennae
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最接近和
14:44
and the points at which it's farthest away.
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最远的位置。
14:46
That's pretty cool."
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这是非常酷的想法。
14:48
And eventually, they get permission --
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“最终，他们得到许可
14:50
this is all a little side project that hadn't been officially part of their job description.
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这是一个小的副业项目，不是正式工作的一部分。
14:53
They get permission to use the new, you know, UNIVAC computer
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他们得到使用新UNIVAC计算机的许可，
14:56
that takes up an entire room that they'd just gotten at the APL.
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它占用整个房间，APL刚刚引进。
14:59
They run some more of the numbers, and at the end of about three or four weeks,
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他们进行更多的运算，并在大约三，四个星期后，
15:02
turns out they have mapped the exact trajectory
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基于在午餐时的
15:05
of this satellite around the Earth,
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启发，
15:07
just from listening to this one little signal,
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仅凭监听卫星信号，
15:09
going off on this little side hunch that they'd been inspired to do
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他们已制订了卫星的
15:12
over lunch one morning.
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精确轨迹。
15:15
A couple weeks later their boss, Frank McClure,
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几个星期后他们的老板，弗兰克麦克卢尔，
15:18
pulls them into the room and says,
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把他们拉进了房间，说：
15:20
"Hey, you guys, I have to ask you something
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“嘿，你们这些家伙，
15:22
about that project you were working on.
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关于该项目我有些东西要问你们。
15:24
You've figured out an unknown location
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你们已经从地面上的已知位置
15:26
of a satellite orbiting the planet
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找到了卫星
15:29
from a known location on the ground.
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未知地点。
15:31
Could you go the other way?
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你们能反方向去做吗？
15:33
Could you figure out an unknown location on the ground,
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如果你知道卫星的位置，
15:35
if you knew the location of the satellite?"
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能找出一地面上不明地点吗？“
15:38
And they thought about it and they said,
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他们想了想，说，
15:40
"Well, I guess maybe you could. Let's run the numbers here."
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“嗯，我想也许可以。让我们算一下。”
15:43
So they went back, and they thought about it.
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所以他们回去，他们研究此事。
15:45
And they came back and said, "Actually, it'll be easier."
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他们回来说，“其实，它会更简单些。”
15:47
And he said, "Oh, that's great.
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弗兰克说，“哦，太棒了。
15:49
Because see, I have these new nuclear submarines
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因为，这些新建造的
15:52
that I'm building.
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核潜艇。
15:54
And it's really hard to figure out how to get your missile
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如果你不知道潜艇在太平洋中部的位置，
15:57
so that it will land right on top of Moscow,
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真的很难找出如何让你的导弹
15:59
if you don't know where the submarine is in the middle of the Pacific Ocean.
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准确降落在莫斯科的上方。
16:02
So we're thinking, we could throw up a bunch of satellites
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因此，我们在想，我们可以发射一些的卫星，
16:05
and use it to track our submarines
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并用它来跟踪我们的潜艇并找出
16:08
and figure out their location in the middle of the ocean.
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它们在海洋中的位置。
16:10
Could you work on that problem?"
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请问你们能解决这个问题吗？“
16:12
And that's how GPS was born.
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这就是全球定位系统是如何诞生的。
16:15
30 years later,
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30年后
16:17
Ronald Reagan actually opened it up and made it an open platform
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罗纳德。里根把它公开，并使其成为一个开放式平台，
16:20
that anybody could kind of build upon
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任何人借此都创造和革新，
16:22
and anybody could come along and build new technology
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建立新的技术，
16:25
that would create and innovate
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并向任何人
16:27
on top of this open platform,
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开放，
16:29
left it open for anyone to do
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做他们
16:31
pretty much anything they wanted with it.
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想要的。
16:33
And now, I guarantee you
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而现在，我保证
16:35
certainly half of this room, if not more,
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这个房间的有一半人，如果不是更多，
16:37
has a device sitting in their pocket right now
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在他们的口袋里有一个设备现在
16:39
that is talking to one of these satellites in outer space.
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正和外层空间这些卫星中的一个在联络。
16:42
And I bet you one of you, if not more,
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我敢打赌，你们中的一个，如果不是更多，
16:45
has used said device and said satellite system
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在昨天或上周使用了那些设备和卫星，
16:48
to locate a nearby coffeehouse somewhere in the last --
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以找出附近的咖啡馆
16:51
(Laughter)
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（众笑）
16:53
in the last day or last week, right?
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对不对？
16:56
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
16:59
And that, I think,
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我想
17:01
is a great case study, a great lesson
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这是极好的一个案例
17:04
in the power, the marvelous, kind of unplanned
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它显示出了开放的创新体系
17:06
emergent, unpredictable power
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所蕴含的潜在的
17:09
of open innovative systems.
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非常惊人同时又不可预测的力量
17:11
When you build them right, they will be led to completely new directions
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当你把这些系统完善，它们将把创造者指引到
17:13
that the creators never even dreamed of.
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甚至从未梦想的崭新的方向。
17:15
I mean, here you have these guys
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我的意思是，这些家伙基本上
17:17
who basically thought they were just following this hunch,
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只是跟着这个预感，
17:19
this little passion that had developed,
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这个小激情，
17:21
then they thought they were fighting the Cold War,
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那时候他们在想他们是在打冷战，
17:23
and then it turns out they're just helping somebody
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到今天，他们的发明就被用来
17:25
find a soy latte.
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帮助你们找到一杯大豆拿铁
17:27
(Laughter)
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（众笑）
17:29
That is how innovation happens.
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创新就是这么发生的！
17:31
Chance favors the connected mind.
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机会垂青相互联系的脑袋
17:33
Thank you very much.
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非常感谢。
17:35
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Johnson - WriterSteven Berlin Johnson examines the intersection of science, technology and personal experience.
Why you should listen
Steven Johnson is a leading light of today's interdisciplinary and collaborative approach to innovation. His writings have influenced everything from cutting-edge ideas in urban planning to the battle against 21st-century terrorism. Johnson was chosen by Prospect magazine as one of the top ten brains of the digital future, and The Wall Street Journal calls him "one of the most persuasive advocates for the role of collaboration in innovation."
Johnson's work on the history of innovation inspired the Emmy-nominated six-part series on PBS, "How We Got To Now with Steven Johnson," which aired in the fall of 2014. The book version of How We Got To Now was a finalist for the PEN/E.O. Wilson Literary Science Writing Award. His new book, Wonderland: How Play Made the Modern World, revolves around the creative power of play and delight: ideas and innovations that set into motion many momentous changes in science, technology, politics and society.
Johnson is also the author of the bestselling Where Good Ideas Come From: The Natural History of Innovation, one of his many books celebrating progress and innovation. Others include The Invention of Air and The Ghost Map. Everything Bad Is Good For You, one of the most discussed books of 2005, argued that the increasing complexity of modern media is training us to think in more complex ways. Emergence and Future Perfect explore the power of bottom-up intelligence in both nature and contemporary society.
An innovator himself, Johnson has co-created three influential sites: the pioneering online magazine FEED, the Webby-Award-winning community site, Plastic.com, and the hyperlocal media site outside.in, which was acquired by AOL in 2011.
Johnson is a regular contributor to WIRED magazine, as well as the New York Times, The Wall Street Journal and many other periodicals. He has appeared on many high-profile television programs, including "The Charlie Rose Show," "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart" and "The NewsHour with Jim Lehrer."
Steven Johnson | Speaker | TED.com