TEDxCaltech
Colin Camerer: When you're making a deal, what's going on in your brain?
柯林．坎麥爾（Colin Camerer）：神經科學、賽局理論、猴子
Filmed:
Readability: 3.9
1,516,785 views
不論在合作或競爭的條件下，協商者的大腦產生了什麼變化？行為經濟學家柯林．坎麥爾（Colin Camerer）展示了一些可以讓我們預測別人思考方式的研究報告。並呈現出一個超乎預期的結果，顯示黑猩猩比人類優秀。（影片攝於 TEDxCalTech）
Colin Camerer - Behavioral economist
Colin Camerer is a leading behavioral economist who studies the psychological and neural bases of choice and strategic decision-making. Full bio
Colin Camerer is a leading behavioral economist who studies the psychological and neural bases of choice and strategic decision-making. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I'm going to talk about the strategizing brain.
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我要說說大腦決策
00:14
We're going to use an unusual combination of tools
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我們要用一些不尋常組合的工具
00:17
from game theory and neuroscience
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從賽局理論到神經科學
00:19
to understand how people interact socially when value is on the line.
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以瞭解利益糾葛時大眾的互動
00:22
So game theory is a branch of, originally, applied mathematics,
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賽局理論源自應用數學
00:26
used mostly in economics and political science, a little bit in biology,
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主要用在經濟和政治學
很少被應用在生物學上
很少被應用在生物學上
00:28
that gives us a mathematical taxonomy of social life
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它提供了關於社會行為的數學模型
00:32
and it predicts what people are likely to do
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當人的行為會互相影響時
00:34
and believe others will do
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它可以用來預測
當人類行為會互相影響時
當人類行為會互相影響時
00:35
in cases where everyone's actions affect everyone else.
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人可能會採取的行動
00:38
That's a lot of things: competition, cooperation, bargaining,
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這包含很多事：競爭、合作、議價
00:42
games like hide-and-seek, and poker.
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一些像是捉迷藏和撲克牌的遊戲
00:45
Here's a simple game to get us started.
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我們用一個簡單的遊戲開始吧
00:48
Everyone chooses a number from zero to 100,
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每個人從 0 到 100 間選一個數字
00:50
we're going to compute the average of those numbers,
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我們會計算這些數值的平均
00:52
and whoever's closest to two-thirds of the average wins a fixed prize.
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選擇最接近平均值 2/3 數值的人贏
00:56
So you want to be a little bit below the average number,
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所以你會需要比平均值低一點的數值
00:59
but not too far below, and everyone else wants to be
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但又不要太低
而且每個人都會想要
而且每個人都會想要
01:01
a little bit below the average number as well.
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選比平均值低一些的數值
01:03
Think about what you might pick.
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想想你會選什麼
01:05
As you're thinking, this is a toy model of something like
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你可能會想：
這就像是股價上揚時
這就像是股價上揚時
01:09
selling in the stock market during a rising market. Right?
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賣股票時機選擇的簡單模型
01:11
You don't want to sell too early, because you miss out on profits,
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你不想太早賣
因為你會減少獲利
因為你會減少獲利
01:14
but you don't want to wait too late
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但又不想太晚賣
01:16
to when everyone else sells, triggering a crash.
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因為大家都賣完後股價會崩盤
01:18
You want to be a little bit ahead of the competition, but not too far ahead.
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所以你會想超前大家一步，但別過頭
01:21
Okay, here's two theories about how people might think about this,
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好，對於大家的想法有兩種可能
01:25
and then we'll see some data.
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然後我們看看數據
01:26
Some of these will sound familiar because you probably are
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有些聽起來可能會很熟悉
01:28
thinking that way. I'm using my brain theory to see.
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因為你就是這麼想
因為我是用大腦理論分析出來
因為我是用大腦理論分析出來
01:32
A lot of people say, "I really don't know what people are going to pick,
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許多人會說：
「我不知道大家會怎麼選，
「我不知道大家會怎麼選，
01:35
so I think the average will be 50."
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但我知道平均值是 50。」
01:37
They're not being really strategic at all.
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這其中沒有策略思考成份
01:39
"And I'll pick two-thirds of 50. That's 33." That's a start.
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「我會選 50 的 2/3 ，也就是 33 。」這是個開始
01:42
Other people who are a little more sophisticated,
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其他人比較世故一些
01:44
using more working memory,
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消耗大腦多一點運算能力
01:46
say, "I think people will pick 33 because they're going to pick a response to 50,
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說：「別人會因 50 而選 33 ，
01:49
and so I'll pick 22, which is two-thirds of 33."
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所以我就選 22 ， 也就是 33 的 2/3 。」
01:52
They're doing one extra step of thinking, two steps.
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他們多想了一步，也就是兩步
01:55
That's better. And of course, in principle,
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這更好，當然理論上
01:57
you could do three, four or more,
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你可以多想三步、四步或更多
01:59
but it starts to get very difficult.
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但是想越多越困難
02:01
Just like in language and other domains, we know that it's hard for people to parse
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就像在語言或其他領域
02:04
very complex sentences with a kind of recursive structure.
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要組織層疊的句子結構很困難
02:07
This is called a cognitive hierarchy theory, by the way.
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順帶一題，這稱為認知層級理論
02:09
It's something that I've worked on and a few other people,
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這是我和一些人研究的東西
02:12
and it indicates a kind of hierarchy along with
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這研究用來驗證
02:14
some assumptions about how many people stop at different steps
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思考深度存在階層關係的假設
02:16
and how the steps of thinking are affected
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和哪些有趣變因會影響思考深度
02:18
by lots of interesting variables and variant people, as we'll see in a minute.
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這部份我們等下就會看到
02:22
A very different theory, a much more popular one, and an older one,
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另一個不同的理論
也是較為早期、為人熟知的
也是較為早期、為人熟知的
02:25
due largely to John Nash of "A Beautiful Mind" fame,
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大部份歸因於約翰．納許的《美麗境界》
02:29
is what's called equilibrium analysis.
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稱為均衡分析
02:31
So if you've ever taken a game theory course at any level,
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如果你曾修過賽局理論的課
02:33
you will have learned a little bit about this.
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你可能都學過一些
02:35
An equilibrium is a mathematical state in which everybody
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「均衡」是對每個人都知道
02:38
has figured out exactly what everyone else will do.
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其他人會怎麼做的數學狀態
02:40
It is a very useful concept, but behaviorally,
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這是一個有用的概念
02:42
it may not exactly explain what people do
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但是首次應用在經濟領域
02:44
the first time they play these types of economic games
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或是其他現實世界的問題時
02:47
or in situations in the outside world.
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它卻無法確切解釋人的行為
02:49
In this case, the equilibrium makes a very bold prediction,
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在這狀況下
「均衡」是一個大膽的假設：
「均衡」是一個大膽的假設：
02:52
which is everyone wants to be below everyone else,
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每個人都會想比
其他人選的數值低
其他人選的數值低
02:55
therefore they'll play zero.
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所以他們都會選 0
02:57
Let's see what happens. This experiment's been done many, many times.
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讓我們來看結果
這是一個被重複多次的實驗
這是一個被重複多次的實驗
03:00
Some of the earliest ones were done in the '90s
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我、羅斯瑪麗．納格爾及其它人
03:02
by me and Rosemarie Nagel and others.
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在 90 年代進行的早期實驗
03:04
This is a beautiful data set of 9,000 people who wrote in
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這是由 9 千人參加
公佈在 3 家報紙和雜誌的競賽後
公佈在 3 家報紙和雜誌的競賽後
03:07
to three newspapers and magazines that had a contest.
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所蒐集到的資料
03:10
The contest said, send in your numbers
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競賽問題說：
「回傳你所選的數字，
「回傳你所選的數字，
03:12
and whoever is close to two-thirds of the average will win a big prize.
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而任何最接近 2/3 平均值的人獲獎」
03:15
And as you can see, there's so much data here, you can see the spikes very visibly.
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如你所見，因為資料龐大
你可以清楚的看到一些高峰
你可以清楚的看到一些高峰
03:18
There's a spike at 33. Those are people doing one step.
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在 33 有一個高峰
這是只思考一步的人
這是只思考一步的人
03:22
There is another spike visible at 22.
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另外一個高峰是在 22
03:24
And notice, by the way, that most people pick numbers right around there.
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順帶一題
多數人選擇 33 和 22 附近的數值
多數人選擇 33 和 22 附近的數值
03:27
They don't necessarily pick exactly 33 and 22.
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他們不一定只選 33 或 22
03:29
There's something a little bit noisy around it.
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所以在附近會有一些雜訊
03:31
But you can see those spikes, and they're there.
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但是你可以看到這些高峰確實存在
03:33
There's another group of people who seem to have
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另外一些人
03:34
a firm grip on equilibrium analysis,
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對均衡理論有深入的瞭解
03:36
because they're picking zero or one.
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因為他們選擇 0 或 1
03:39
But they lose, right?
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但是他們輸了，對吧？
03:41
Because picking a number that low is actually a bad choice
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因為如果其他人不懂均衡理論
03:44
if other people aren't doing equilibrium analysis as well.
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選擇低數值就不是個好策略
03:47
So they're smart, but poor.
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所以他們聰明卻也貧窮
03:49
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:51
Where are these things happening in the brain?
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那大腦中發生了什麼事呢？
03:53
One study by Coricelli and Nagel gives a really sharp, interesting answer.
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柯里切利和納格爾
的一項研究給了明顯、有趣的答案
的一項研究給了明顯、有趣的答案
03:57
So they had people play this game
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他們讓一些人玩這遊戲時
03:58
while they were being scanned in an fMRI,
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同時接受功能型核磁共振（fMRI）
04:01
and two conditions: in some trials,
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包含兩種狀況：在其中一組
04:03
they're told you're playing another person
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受試者被告知他們是
04:04
who's playing right now and we're going to match up
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和遊戲中的人玩
而我們最後會比較你們的作為
而我們最後會比較你們的作為
04:06
your behavior at the end and pay you if you win.
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如果你贏了，就會得到獎勵
04:08
In the other trials, they're told, you're playing a computer.
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另外一組受試者
被告知他們是在電腦玩
被告知他們是在電腦玩
04:10
They're just choosing randomly.
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受試者隨機分組
04:12
So what you see here is a subtraction
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所以你們可以看到
04:14
of areas in which there's more brain activity
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當和對電腦玩的人比較時
04:17
when you're playing people compared to playing the computer.
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對手是人的受試者
腦部活化程度較高
腦部活化程度較高
04:20
And you see activity in some regions we've seen today,
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從圖上你可以看到
一些我們已知的區域
一些我們已知的區域
04:22
medial prefrontal cortex, dorsomedial, however, up here,
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內側額葉皮層，事實上
在這裡的是背內側額葉皮層
在這裡的是背內側額葉皮層
04:25
ventromedial prefrontal cortex,
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腹內前側額葉皮層
04:27
anterior cingulate, an area that's involved
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和像是你在玩「老師說」遊戲時
04:28
in lots of types of conflict resolution, like if you're playing "Simon Says,"
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處理大量衝突解決的前扣帶皮層
04:32
and also the right and left temporoparietal junction.
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以及左右邊的躡頂葉交界區
04:36
And these are all areas which are fairly reliably known
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而這皆我們所熟知的區域
04:38
to be part of what's called a "theory of mind" circuit,
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被納入一個名為「心靈原理」迴路
04:40
or "mentalizing circuit."
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或稱為「心靈迴路」的一部份
04:42
That is, it's a circuit that's used to imagine what other people might do.
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這迴路是用來想像別人可能的行動
04:46
So these were some of the first studies to see this
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所以這部份早期的研究
04:48
tied in to game theory.
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和賽局理論有關
04:50
What happens with these one- and two-step types?
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但那些「想一步」和
「想兩步」的玩家又是如何呢？
「想兩步」的玩家又是如何呢？
04:52
So we classify people by what they picked,
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所以我們將受試者依其選擇區分
04:54
and then we look at the difference between
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然後我們再看看
04:56
playing humans versus playing computers,
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對手是人或電腦
04:58
which brain areas are differentially active.
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在腦部活化區域層面的不同
05:00
On the top you see the one-step players.
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上方你可以看到「想一步」的玩家
05:01
There's almost no difference.
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它們幾乎沒有不同
05:03
The reason is, they're treating other people like a computer, and the brain is too.
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原因是他們將人視為電腦，
所以大腦也就如此反應
所以大腦也就如此反應
05:06
The bottom players, you see all the activity in dorsomedial PFC.
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你可從下方玩家中
看到背內側額葉皮層的活動
看到背內側額葉皮層的活動
05:10
So we know that those two-step players are doing something differently.
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所以我們知道這些
「想兩步」的玩家有些不同
「想兩步」的玩家有些不同
05:12
Now if you were to step back and say, "What can we do with this information?"
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你可能會停下來想想
「我們從這些資訊中得到什麼？」
「我們從這些資訊中得到什麼？」
05:15
you might be able to look at brain activity and say,
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你可能從大腦活動中判斷
05:17
"This person's going to be a good poker player,"
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「這人會成為撲克牌高手」
05:19
or, "This person's socially naive,"
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或「這人是交際新手」
05:20
and we might also be able to study things
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既然我們知道這個迴路的存在
05:22
like development of adolescent brains
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我們也可以研究一些
05:23
once we have an idea of where this circuitry exists.
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像是青少年腦部的發育
05:27
Okay. Get ready.
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準備好囉
05:29
I'm saving you some brain activity,
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我為你們準備了些腦力激盪
05:31
because you don't need to use your hair detector cells.
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你們不用擔心想太多會掉頭髮
05:34
You should use those cells to think carefully about this game.
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你們應該專注思考這個遊戲
05:37
This is a bargaining game.
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這是個協商遊戲
05:39
Two players who are being scanned using EEG electrodes
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兩位被接上腦電波圖（EEG） 電極的玩家
05:42
are going to bargain over one to six dollars.
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正在進行一項由 1 到 6 元的協商
05:45
If they can do it in 10 seconds, they're going to actually earn that money.
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如果在 10 秒內完成，
最後就會得到這份金錢
最後就會得到這份金錢
05:47
If 10 seconds goes by and they haven't made a deal, they get nothing.
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如果未在 10 秒內完成協商，就得不到錢
05:50
That's kind of a mistake together.
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這是種兩人一起造成的錯誤
05:52
The twist is that one player, on the left,
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不同的地方在於左邊玩家
05:55
is informed about how much on each trial there is.
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確實知道每場協商的底價
05:57
They play lots of trials with different amounts each time.
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而他們會重複多次、
所包含的金額不同的協商
所包含的金額不同的協商
06:00
In this case, they know there's four dollars.
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在這個例子中，他們知道是 4 元
06:02
The uninformed player doesn't know,
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而一邊玩家不知道底價
06:04
but they know that the informed player knows.
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只知到他們的對手知道
06:06
So the uninformed player's challenge is to say,
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所以不知道底價的玩家會質疑
06:08
"Is this guy really being fair
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「對方真的很公平
06:09
or are they giving me a very low offer
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或是他只給我很低的金額
06:11
in order to get me to think that there's only one or two dollars available to split?"
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讓我以為我們真的
只有 1、2 塊錢可以分 ？」
只有 1、2 塊錢可以分 ？」
06:14
in which case they might reject it and not come to a deal.
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如此他們可能會拒絕對方，
而讓協議流產
而讓協議流產
06:17
So there's some tension here between trying to get the most money
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所以這包含「想要的到最多的錢」
06:20
but trying to goad the other player into giving you more.
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和「如何促使對手給你更多錢」的衝突
06:23
And the way they bargain is to point on a number line
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他們議價方式是
06:25
that goes from zero to six dollars,
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是從 0 到 6 這條線上指出一點
06:27
and they're bargaining over how much the uninformed player gets,
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他們是在協商「不知情玩家」該得多少
06:30
and the informed player's going to get the rest.
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而「知情玩家」會得到剩下的
06:32
So this is like a management-labor negotiation
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這就好像顧主和勞工的協商
06:34
in which the workers don't know how much profits
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勞工不知道
06:37
the privately held company has, right,
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公司獲利經額的資訊
06:40
and they want to maybe hold out for more money,
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他們想要得到更多的錢
06:42
but the company might want to create the impression
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但是公司會想營造一個假象
06:44
that there's very little to split: "I'm giving you the most that I can."
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就是營收很少而且
「我已將能給的部份都給出去了」
「我已將能給的部份都給出去了」
06:47
First some behavior. So a bunch of the subject pairs, they play face to face.
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首先看看行為，
一部份玩家座在長桌上、面對面協商
一部份玩家座在長桌上、面對面協商
06:51
We have some other data where they play across computers.
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我們也有一些
他們透過電腦協商的數據
他們透過電腦協商的數據
06:53
That's an interesting difference, as you might imagine.
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你可以想像
兩者的差距十分有趣
兩者的差距十分有趣
06:55
But a bunch of the face-to-face pairs
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長桌上面對面的協商
06:57
agree to divide the money evenly every single time.
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會同意每次都均分金錢
07:00
Boring. It's just not interesting neurally.
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無聊死了！
平均分配並不有趣
平均分配並不有趣
07:03
It's good for them. They make a lot of money.
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這對他們很好，因為他們拿到很多錢
07:06
But we're interested in, can we say something about
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我們感興趣的是
07:09
when disagreements occur versus don't occur?
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如何解釋歧見是否發生
07:11
So this is the other group of subjects who often disagree.
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這是通常都達不成協議的一組
07:13
So they have a chance of -- they bicker and disagree
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他們有機會因歧見而爭執
07:16
and end up with less money.
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最後得到很少錢
07:18
They might be eligible to be on "Real Housewives," the TV show.
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他們協商情景
甚至可以改編成實境秀
甚至可以改編成實境秀
07:21
You see on the left,
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你看左側
07:23
when the amount to divide is one, two or three dollars,
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當配額為 1 到 3 元時
07:26
they disagree about half the time,
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他們約有 50% 會拒絕
07:28
and when the amount is four, five, six, they agree quite often.
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而當配額為 4 到 6 元則會接受
07:30
This turns out to be something that's predicted
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這就是我們所預期的
07:32
by a very complicated type of game theory
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非常複雜的賽局理論
07:34
you should come to graduate school at CalTech and learn about.
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你應該到加州理工的研究所來學學
07:37
It's a little too complicated to explain right now,
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現在要解釋這太困難了
07:39
but the theory tells you that this shape kind of should occur.
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但這理論預期會出現這種趨勢
07:42
Your intuition might tell you that too.
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而你的直覺或許也是這樣告訴你
07:45
Now I'm going to show you the results from the EEG recording.
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現在我要給你們
看腦電波圖（EEG）的紀錄
看腦電波圖（EEG）的紀錄
07:47
Very complicated. The right brain schematic
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這非常複雜
右邊的腦部模型
右邊的腦部模型
07:49
is the uninformed person, and the left is the informed.
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是代表「不知情玩家」
而左邊則是「知情玩家」
而左邊則是「知情玩家」
07:52
Remember that we scanned both brains at the same time,
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記得我們是同時監控兩個大腦
07:55
so we can ask about time-synced activity
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所以我們可以探討
在相同或相異大腦區域中
在相同或相異大腦區域中
07:57
in similar or different areas simultaneously,
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在一段時間內的活化狀況
08:00
just like if you wanted to study a conversation
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就像你想研究一段對話
08:03
and you were scanning two people talking to each other
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你就同時掃描兩個人的腦部活動
08:05
and you'd expect common activity in language regions
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而你會預期當他們正在對話時
08:07
when they're actually kind of listening and communicating.
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共同活化的是語言區
08:09
So the arrows connect regions that are active at the same time,
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所以這個箭頭連接了同時活化的區域
08:13
and the direction of the arrows flows
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而箭號方向從
08:15
from the region that's active first in time,
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最先活化的區位指出去
08:18
and the arrowhead goes to the region that's active later.
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箭頭部份表示較後期活化的區域
08:21
So in this case, if you look carefully,
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在這個例子中，如果你仔細看
08:24
most of the arrows flow from right to left.
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大部份的箭號是由右而左
08:25
That is, it looks as if the uninformed brain activity
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看起來「不知情玩家」的
08:29
is happening first,
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腦部較先活化
08:31
and then it's followed by activity in the informed brain.
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接著才是「知情玩家」
08:34
And by the way, these were trials where their deals were made.
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順帶一提，
這是在達成協議的測試中出現的
這是在達成協議的測試中出現的
08:38
This is from the first two seconds.
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這是最初兩秒鐘所得到的數據
08:40
We haven't finished analyzing this data,
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我們還沒完成這部份的分析
08:42
so we're still peeking in, but the hope is
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所以這只是大概觀察到的狀況
08:44
that we can say something in the first couple of seconds
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但我們希望從前 1、2 秒鐘
08:46
about whether they'll make a deal or not,
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就可以判斷他們是否能達成協議
08:48
which could be very useful in thinking about avoiding litigation
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這可以用在避免
協商破裂，而走向進訴訟程序
協商破裂，而走向進訴訟程序
08:50
and ugly divorces and things like that.
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例如：最後以不愉快的離婚收場
08:52
Those are all cases in which a lot of value is lost
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在很多案例中
08:55
by delay and strikes.
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是因為延誤和罷工而減損的價值
08:58
Here's the case where the disagreements occur.
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而這都是因為歧見
09:00
You can see it looks different than the one before.
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你會看到這和前一個例子不同
09:02
There's a lot more arrows.
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上面有很箭號
09:04
That means that the brains are synced up
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這表示大腦正在同步運作
09:06
more closely in terms of simultaneous activity,
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更確切的說是同時間的活動
09:08
and the arrows flow clearly from left to right.
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而箭號由左指向右
09:10
That is, the informed brain seems to be deciding,
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這好像是「知情玩家」的大腦開使思考
09:12
"We're probably not going to make a deal here."
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「這個可能是失敗的協商」的訊號
09:15
And then later there's activity in the uninformed brain.
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後來這個活化模式也出現在「不知情玩家」
09:18
Next I'm going to introduce you to some relatives.
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接著讓我來介紹我們的近親
09:20
They're hairy, smelly, fast and strong.
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牠們多毛、體味重、迅捷和強壯
09:23
You might be thinking back to your last Thanksgiving.
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你可能會想到你上個感恩節的裝扮
09:26
Maybe if you had a chimpanzee with you.
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如果你帶了知黑猩猩的話
09:29
Charles Darwin and I and you broke off from the family tree
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查理．達爾文、你和我在 50 萬年前
09:32
from chimpanzees about five million years ago.
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從演化樹上和黑猩猩分開
09:34
They're still our closest genetic kin.
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遺傳上，是牠們仍是最接近我們的親戚
09:36
We share 98.8 percent of the genes.
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我們之間有 98.8 % 相同的基因
09:38
We share more genes with them than zebras do with horses.
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我們之間的共同基因
比斑馬和野馬間多的多
比斑馬和野馬間多的多
09:41
And we're also their closest cousin.
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我們也是牠們最接近的親戚
09:43
They have more genetic relation to us than to gorillas.
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牠們和我們的基因相似度
比和大猩猩更接近
比和大猩猩更接近
09:46
So how humans and chimpanzees behave differently
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所以人類和黑猩猩行為的不同
09:48
might tell us a lot about brain evolution.
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可能提供我們瞭解腦部演化的線索
09:51
So this is an amazing memory test
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這是日本名古屋靈長類研究中心
09:53
from Nagoya, Japan, Primate Research Institute,
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一個令人驚歎的記憶測試
09:56
where they've done a lot of this research.
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他們在那裡做了很多類似的研究
09:58
This goes back quite a ways. They're interested in working memory.
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這已經是早期的研究，
他們對記憶形成很有興趣
他們對記憶形成很有興趣
10:00
The chimp is going to see, watch carefully,
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猩猩會有 200 毫秒的時間
10:02
they're going to see 200 milliseconds' exposure
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仔細去看
10:04
— that's fast, that's eight movie frames —
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—— 這是很快的 8 個字卡 ——
10:06
of numbers one, two, three, four, five.
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數字從 1 到 5
10:08
Then they disappear and they're replaced by squares,
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當字卡消失後會出現方塊
10:10
and they have to press the squares
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牠們必須依據數字大小順序
10:12
that correspond to the numbers from low to high
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按壓方塊
10:14
to get an apple reward.
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正確就能得到蘋果
10:15
Let's see how they can do it.
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讓我們看看牠們表現如何
10:28
This is a young chimp. The young ones
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這是隻年輕的黑猩猩
10:29
are better than the old ones, just like humans.
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像人類一樣
年輕的表現比年老的好
年輕的表現比年老的好
10:32
And they're highly experienced, so they've done this
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而且牠們已經做了幾千次了
10:34
thousands and thousands of time.
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可以說是駕輕就熟
10:35
Obviously there's a big training effect, as you can imagine.
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你可以想像有很大一部份歸於訓練
10:39
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:41
You can see they're very blasé and kind of effortless.
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你可以看到牠們
已經呈現玩膩時倦怠
已經呈現玩膩時倦怠
10:43
Not only can they do it very well, they do it in a sort of lazy way.
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他們不只做的很好
而且是用一種慵懶的方式完成
而且是用一種慵懶的方式完成
10:47
Right? Who thinks you could beat the chimps?
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對嗎？誰認為自己可以打敗這些猩猩呢？
10:50
Wrong. (Laughter)
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錯了 （笑聲）
10:52
We can try. We'll try. Maybe we'll try.
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我們可以嘗試
或許我們真的會試試
或許我們真的會試試
10:54
Okay, so the next part of this study
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好的，這研究的另一部份
10:57
I'm going to go quickly through
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我會很快的帶過
10:58
is based on an idea of Tetsuro Matsuzawa.
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這是基於松澤綱野的想法
11:01
He had a bold idea that -- what he called the cognitive trade-off hypothesis.
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他有一個想法
稱為認知妥協假說
稱為認知妥協假說
11:04
We know chimps are faster and stronger.
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我們知道猩猩迅捷且強壯
11:05
They're also very obsessed with status.
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牠們也對自身狀況非常執著
11:07
His thought was, maybe they've preserved brain activities
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他認為，或許黑猩猩保留了
11:10
and they practice them in development
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對牠們非常重要
11:12
that are really, really important to them
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用來協商條件和獲勝的腦部活動
11:14
to negotiate status and to win,
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並在成長過程中練習
11:16
which is something like strategic thinking during competition.
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這就像是在競爭中的策略思考
11:19
So we're going to check that out
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所以我們接著就去證實它
11:21
by having the chimps actually play a game
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藉由讓黑猩猩玩個遊戲
11:23
by touching two touch screens.
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藉由點擊兩個觸控螢幕
11:26
The chimps are actually interacting with each other through the computers.
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猩猩真的可以借由電腦互相交流
11:28
They're going to press left or right.
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他們可以選擇按「左」或「右」
11:30
One chimp is called a matcher.
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其中一隻猩猩作為「協調者」
11:32
They win if they press left, left,
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1983
在兩隻猩猩都選同一邊時獲勝
11:34
like a seeker finding someone in hide-and-seek, or right, right.
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有點像是在玩捉迷藏
11:37
The mismatcher wants to mismatch.
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「不諧調者」希望不一樣的組合
11:38
They want to press the opposite screen of the chimp.
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牠們希望選擇和對手不同的選項
11:41
And the rewards are apple cube rewards.
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而得到蘋果塊的獎賞
11:44
So here's how game theorists look at these data.
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賽局理論學家是這樣看待這些數據的
11:47
This is a graph of the percentage of times
282
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這圖的 X 軸表示
11:48
the matcher picked right on the x-axis,
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「協調者」選擇「右」的比率
11:51
and the percentage of times they predicted right
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而 Ｙ 軸表示
11:52
by the mismatcher on the y-axis.
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是牠們預測「不諧調者」會選「右」的比例
11:55
So a point here is the behavior by a pair of players,
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所以上面的一點是由
兩位玩家共同決定的
兩位玩家共同決定的
11:58
one trying to match, one trying to mismatch.
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一個試著選擇一樣，
另一個希望有不同組合
另一個希望有不同組合
12:01
The NE square in the middle -- actually NE, CH and QRE --
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這個中間標示 NE 的正方形，
事實上包含 NE 、 CH 、 QRE
事實上包含 NE 、 CH 、 QRE
12:04
those are three different theories of Nash equilibrium, and others,
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代表三種包含
納許均衡理論在內的三個理論
納許均衡理論在內的三個理論
12:06
tells you what the theory predicts,
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對於牠們選擇的預測
12:09
which is that they should match 50-50,
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牠們的選擇應該是 50 比 50
12:11
because if you play left too much, for example,
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因為如果你選了太多左邊
12:13
I can exploit that if I'm the mismatcher by then playing right.
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而我是「不諧調者」，
我就會傾向選右邊進行破壞
我就會傾向選右邊進行破壞
12:16
And as you can see, the chimps, each chimp is one triangle,
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如你們所見，
每隻黑猩猩都以三角形表示
每隻黑猩猩都以三角形表示
12:19
are circled around, hovering around that prediction.
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三角形都坐落在預測位置的附近
12:22
Now we move the payoffs.
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然後我們改變獎勵條件
12:24
We're actually going to make the left, left payoff for the matcher a little bit higher.
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我們要讓選擇「左」的
「協調者」獲得比較高的獎勵
「協調者」獲得比較高的獎勵
12:28
Now they get three apple cubes.
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現在牠們會得到三個蘋果塊
12:29
Game theoretically, that should actually make the mismatcher's behavior shift,
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依據賽局理論
這會讓「不諧調者」行為改變
這會讓「不諧調者」行為改變
12:32
because what happens is, the mismatcher will think,
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因為「不諧調者」會想
12:34
oh, this guy's going to go for the big reward,
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牠的對手會選則獲利大的地方
12:35
and so I'm going to go to the right, make sure he doesn't get it.
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所以我要選「右」，讓牠拿不到
12:38
And as you can see, their behavior moves up
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而你們可以看到牠們的行為
12:40
in the direction of this change in the Nash equilibrium.
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逐漸趨向納許均衡的預測
12:44
Finally, we changed the payoffs one more time.
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最後，我們再次改變獎勵條件
12:46
Now it's four apple cubes,
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現在是四個蘋果塊
12:47
and their behavior again moves towards the Nash equilibrium.
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他們的行為會更接近納許平衡
12:49
It's sprinkled around, but if you average the chimps out,
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如果將所有黑猩猩的選擇平均
會出現一個高峰
會出現一個高峰
12:51
they're really, really close, within .01.
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它們會非常接近，間距在 0.1 之內
12:53
They're actually closer than any species we've observed.
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結果會比我們觀察的
任何一種物種都接近
任何一種物種都接近
12:57
What about humans? You think you're smarter than a chimpanzee?
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那人類又會如何呢？
你們認為人類比黑猩猩聰明？
你們認為人類比黑猩猩聰明？
13:00
Here's two human groups in green and blue.
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這裡用藍、綠色表示兩組人類
13:03
They're closer to 50-50. They're not responding to payoffs as closely,
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他們選擇接近 50 比 50，
但對獎勵的反應和納許平衡相距較遠
但對獎勵的反應和納許平衡相距較遠
13:07
and also if you study their learning in the game,
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而且你如果研究
他們在遊戲中學習的能力
他們在遊戲中學習的能力
13:09
they aren't as sensitive to previous rewards.
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他們對之前獲得的獎勵較不敏感
13:11
The chimps are playing better than the humans,
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黑猩猩玩得比人類好
13:12
better in the sense of adhering to game theory.
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是以接近賽局理論而言的好
13:14
And these are two different groups of humans
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而這兩組分別來自日本和非洲的人
13:16
from Japan and Africa. They replicate quite nicely.
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他們的結果相互吻合
13:19
None of them are close to where the chimps are.
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但都不及黑猩猩
13:22
So here are some things we learned today.
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所以今天我們學到了一些事情
13:24
People seem to do a limited amount of strategic thinking
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從大腦理論的角度
13:26
using theory of mind.
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人類的策略思考似乎是有極限的
13:28
We have some preliminary evidence from bargaining
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我們有些從議價得到的初步證據
13:30
that early warning signs in the brain might be used to predict
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有些大腦活動可以作為
13:32
whether there will be a bad disagreement that costs money,
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可能造成協商破裂虧損的警訊
13:34
and chimps are better competitors than humans,
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從賽局理論看來
13:36
as judged by game theory.
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黑猩猩是比人類更好的競爭者
13:39
Thank you.
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謝謝大家
13:41
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Colin Camerer - Behavioral economistColin Camerer is a leading behavioral economist who studies the psychological and neural bases of choice and strategic decision-making.
Why you should listen
Colin Camerer focuses on brain behavior during decision making, strategizing and market trading. He is the Robert Kirby Professor of Behavioral Finance and Economics at the California Institute of Technology. A child prodigy in his youth, Camerer received a B.A. in quantitative studies from Johns Hopkins when he was just 17 and a PhD in decision theory from the University of Chicago Graduate School of Business when he was 22. Camerer's research departs from previous theory in that it does not assume the mind to be a rational and perfect system, but rather focuses on the limitations of everyday people when they play actual games, and seeks to predict how they will behave in situations that involve strategy. His studies focus on neurological findings from economic experiments in the lab (on humans -- and monkeys!) Camerer is the author of Behavioral Game Theory.
Colin Camerer | Speaker | TED.com