TEDSummit
Joe Lassiter: We need nuclear power to solve climate change
Joe Lassiter: Trebamo nuklearnu energiju kako bi riješili problem klimatskih promijena
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Joe Lassiter je mislilac i otvoreni govornik fokusiran na razvoj čiste, sigurne i ugljen-neutralne zalihe pouzdane, jeftine energije. Njegova analiza svjetske energetske realnosti stavlja snažan objektiv na škakljiva pitanja nuklearne energije, uključujući modele za fabrike koje se mogu ekonomski natjecati sa fosilnim gorivom. Imamo potencijal napraviti nuklearnu energiju sigurnijom i jefitinijom nego što je bila u prošlosti, kaže Lassiter. Sada moramo napraviti izbor kojeg ćemo slijediti.
Joe Lassiter - Energy scholar
Joe Lassiter focuses on one of the world’s most pressing problems: developing clean, secure and carbon-neutral supplies of reliable, low-cost energy all around the world. Full bio
Joe Lassiter focuses on one of the world’s most pressing problems: developing clean, secure and carbon-neutral supplies of reliable, low-cost energy all around the world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
It's easy to forget that last night,
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Lahko je zaboraviti da je prošle noći,
00:16
one billion people went to sleep
without access to electricity.
without access to electricity.
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milijarda ljudi otišla na spavanje
bez električne energije.
bez električne energije.
00:20
One billion people.
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Jedna milijarda ljudi.
00:22
Two and a half billion people
did not have access to clean cooking fuels
did not have access to clean cooking fuels
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2,5 milijarde ljudi nisu imale pristup
izvorima čistog goriva za kuhanje
izvorima čistog goriva za kuhanje
00:27
or clean heating fuels.
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ili čistog goriva za grijanje.
00:30
Those are the problems
in the developing world.
in the developing world.
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To su problem svijeta koji je u razvoju.
00:32
And it's easy for us not to be empathetic
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I nama je jednostavno
da ne budemo empatični
da ne budemo empatični
00:35
with those people
who seem so distanced from us.
who seem so distanced from us.
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sa tim ljudim, koji
su čini se daleko od nas.
su čini se daleko od nas.
00:38
But even in our own world,
the developed world,
the developed world,
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Ali i u našem svijetu, razvijenom svijetu
00:41
we see the tension of stagnant economies
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vidimo tenzije stagnirajuće ekonomije
00:45
impacting the lives of people around us.
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kako utječe na živote ljudi oko nas.
00:48
We see it in whole pieces of the economy,
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Vidimo u cjelini komadiće ekonomije
00:51
where the people involved
have lost hope about the future
have lost hope about the future
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gdje ljudi koji su uključeni
izgubili nadu u budućnost
izgubili nadu u budućnost
00:55
and despair about the present.
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i očajavaju oko sadašnjosti.
00:57
We see that in the Brexit vote.
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Vidimo to u Brexitu.
00:59
We see that in the Sanders/Trump
campaigns in my own country.
campaigns in my own country.
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Vidimo to u Sanders/Trump kampanji
u mojoj državi.
u mojoj državi.
01:03
But even in countries as recently
turning the corner
turning the corner
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Ali i u državama koje su nedavno
počele napredovati
počele napredovati
01:08
towards being in the developed world,
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prema razvijenom svijetu,
01:10
in China,
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u Kini,
01:11
we see the difficulty
that President Xi has
that President Xi has
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vidimo poteškoće koje Predsjednik Xi ima
01:14
as he begins to un-employ so many people
in his coal and mining industries
in his coal and mining industries
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kada je počeo da ne zapošljava
toliko ljudi u rudnicima
toliko ljudi u rudnicima
01:20
who see no future for themselves.
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koji za sebe ne vide budućnost.
01:23
As we as a society
figure out how to manage
figure out how to manage
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Dok mi kao društvo ne shvatimo
kako upravljati
kako upravljati
01:26
the problems of the developed world
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problemom razvijenog svijeta
01:28
and the problems of the developing world,
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i problemima svijeta u razvoju,
01:30
we have to look at how we move forward
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moramo gledati kako napredujemo
01:33
and manage the environmental impact
of those decisions.
of those decisions.
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i kontrolisati ekološki utjecaj
na te odluke.
na te odluke.
01:37
We've been working on this problem
for 25 years, since Rio,
for 25 years, since Rio,
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Radili smo na ovome problemu 25 godina,
od Rija
od Rija
01:40
the Kyoto Protocols.
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do Kyoto Protokola.
01:43
Our most recent move is the Paris treaty,
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Naš zadnji korak je Pariški sporazum,
01:46
and the resulting climate agreements
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i rezultirajući klimatski sporazumi
01:49
that are being ratified
by nations around the world.
by nations around the world.
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koji su bili ovjereni od nacija
širom svijeta.
širom svijeta.
01:52
I think we can be very hopeful
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Mislim da možemo biti puni nade
01:54
that those agreements,
which are bottom-up agreements,
which are bottom-up agreements,
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da ti dogovori,
koji su razmatrani odozdo prema gore,
koji su razmatrani odozdo prema gore,
01:57
where nations have said
what they think they can do,
what they think they can do,
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gdje nacija su rekle
šta misle da mogu uraditi,
šta misle da mogu uraditi,
02:00
are genuine and forthcoming
for the vast majority of the parties.
for the vast majority of the parties.
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su orginalni i predstojeći za
veliku većinu stranaka.
veliku većinu stranaka.
02:04
The unfortunate thing
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Nesretna stvar
02:07
is that now, as we look
at the independent analyses
at the independent analyses
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jeste da sad, dok gledamo
nezavisnu analizu
nezavisnu analizu
02:10
of what those climate treaties
are liable to yield,
are liable to yield,
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šta ti sporazumi o klimi
mogu da daju,
mogu da daju,
02:15
the magnitude of the problem
before us becomes clear.
before us becomes clear.
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veličina problema koji je pred nama
postaje jasna.
postaje jasna.
02:18
This is the United States
Energy Information Agency's assessment
Energy Information Agency's assessment
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Ovo su procjene Energetske Informacione
Agencije Sjedinjenih Država
Agencije Sjedinjenih Država
02:23
of what will happen if the countries
implement the climate commitments
implement the climate commitments
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šta bi se desilo kada bi države
implementirale klimatske obaveze
implementirale klimatske obaveze
02:28
that they've made in Paris
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koje su napravile u Parizu
02:30
between now and 2040.
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između danas i 2040-te.
02:33
It shows basically CO2 emissions
around the world
around the world
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U suštini pokazuje emisiju CO2
širom svijeta
širom svijeta
02:37
over the next 30 years.
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sljedećih 30 godina.
02:40
There are three things that you need
to look at and appreciate.
to look at and appreciate.
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Postoje tri stvari koje trebate
gledati i cijeniti
gledati i cijeniti
02:44
One, CO2 emissions are expected
to continue to grow
to continue to grow
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Prva, očekuje se da će rasti emisija CO2
02:48
for the next 30 years.
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sljedećih 30 godina.
02:51
In order to control climate,
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Da bi kontrolisali klimu,
02:54
CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero
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emisija CO2 mora bukvalno ići na nulu
02:57
because it's the cumulative emissions
that drive heating on the planet.
that drive heating on the planet.
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zato što je cjelokupna emisija ta koja
pokreće zagrijavanje planete.
pokreće zagrijavanje planete.
03:02
This should tell you that we are losing
the race to fossil fuels.
the race to fossil fuels.
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Ovo bi vam trebalo reći da gubimo utrku
sa fosilnim gorivima.
sa fosilnim gorivima.
03:07
The second thing you should notice
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Druga stvar koju trebate primjetiti
03:09
is that the bulk of the growth
comes from the developing countries,
comes from the developing countries,
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jeste da glavni dio rasta dolazi od
država u razvoju
država u razvoju
03:13
from China, from India,
from the rest of the world,
from the rest of the world,
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od Kine, Indije, I ostatka svijeta,
03:16
which includes South Africa
and Indonesia and Brazil,
and Indonesia and Brazil,
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što uključuje Južnu Afriku, Indoneziju
i Brazil,
i Brazil,
03:21
as most of these countries
move their people
move their people
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dok većina ovih država
seli stanovništvo
seli stanovništvo
03:24
into the lower range of lifestyles
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u siromašniji način života
03:27
that we literally take for granted
in the developed world.
in the developed world.
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što smo uzeli zdravo za gotovo u
razvijenom svijetu.
razvijenom svijetu.
03:32
The final thing that you should notice
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Posljednja stvar koju trebate primjetiti
03:34
is that each year,
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jeste da svake godine
03:37
about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting
added to the planet's atmosphere,
added to the planet's atmosphere,
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oko 10 gigatona ugljena je dodato u
planetinu atmosferu
planetinu atmosferu
03:44
and then diffusing into the ocean
and into the land.
and into the land.
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i onda pušteno u okean i na kopno.
03:48
That's on top of the 550 gigatons
that are in place today.
that are in place today.
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To je na vrhu od 550 gigatona
koje su danas na snazi.
koje su danas na snazi.
03:54
At the end of 30 years,
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Do kraja 30 godina,
03:55
we will have put 850 gigatons
of carbon into the air,
of carbon into the air,
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imati ćemo 850 gigatona
ugljena u zraku
ugljena u zraku
04:01
and that probably goes a long way
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i da vjerovatno ide dug put
04:03
towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase
in global mean surface temperatures,
in global mean surface temperatures,
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prema zatvaranju 2 - 4 °C povećanja u
globalnom smislu površinske temperature,
globalnom smislu površinske temperature,
04:10
locking in ocean acidification
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zatvaranje acidifikacije okeana
04:13
and locking in sea level rise.
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i zatvaranje porasta nivoa mora.
04:16
Now, this is a projection made by men
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Sada, ovu projekciju je napravio čovjek
04:20
by the actions of society,
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postupcima društva,
04:22
and it's ours to change, not to accept.
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i naše je da mijenjano,
a ne da prihvatamo.
a ne da prihvatamo.
04:25
But the magnitude of the problem
is something we need to appreciate.
is something we need to appreciate.
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Ali dimenzija problema je
nešto što moramo cijeniti.
nešto što moramo cijeniti.
04:30
Different nations make
different energy choices.
different energy choices.
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Različite nacije prave
različite energetske odabire.
različite energetske odabire.
04:33
It's a function
of their natural resources.
of their natural resources.
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To je funkcija,
njihovih prirodnih resursa.
njihovih prirodnih resursa.
04:35
It's a function of their climate.
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To je funkcija njihove klime.
04:37
It's a function of the development path
that they've followed as a society.
that they've followed as a society.
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To je funkcija puta razvoja koji
oni prate kao društvo.
oni prate kao društvo.
04:42
It's a function of where
on the surface of the planet they are.
on the surface of the planet they are.
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To je funkcija u kojoj
na površini planete se nalaze
na površini planete se nalaze
04:46
Are they where it's dark
a lot of the time,
a lot of the time,
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Jesu li tamo gdje je tamno
većinom vremena
većinom vremena
04:48
or are they at the mid-latitudes?
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ili su u srednjim geografskim širinama?
04:50
Many, many, many things
go into the choices of countries,
go into the choices of countries,
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Mnogo,mnogo,mnogo stvari
prolazi kroz izbor država,
prolazi kroz izbor država,
04:55
and they each make a different choice.
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i svaka pravi različite odluke.
04:58
The overwhelming thing
that we need to appreciate
that we need to appreciate
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Ogromna stvar koju moramo cijeniti
05:02
is the choice that China has made.
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jeste izbor koji je Kina napravila.
05:04
China has made the choice,
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Kina je napravila odabir,
05:07
and will make the choice, to run on coal.
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a i mi ćemo napraviti,
koristiti ćemo ugalj.
koristiti ćemo ugalj.
05:10
The United States has an alternative.
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Sjedinjene Države imaju alternativu.
05:12
It can run on natural gas
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Može se koristiti prirodni gas
05:14
as a result of the inventions
of fracking and shale gas,
of fracking and shale gas,
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kao rezultat izuma
frakturiranja i plina iz škriljaca,
frakturiranja i plina iz škriljaca,
05:18
which we have here.
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kojeg ovdje imamo.
05:19
They provide an alternative.
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Obezbjedili su alternativu.
05:22
The OECD Europe has a choice.
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OECD Europe ima izbor.
05:25
It has renewables that it can afford
to deploy in Germany
to deploy in Germany
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Posjeduje obnovljive izvore koje može
rasporediti po Njemačkoj
rasporediti po Njemačkoj
05:28
because it's rich enough
to afford to do it.
to afford to do it.
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zato što je dovoljno bogat
da priušti to.
da priušti to.
05:31
The French and the British
show interest in nuclear power.
show interest in nuclear power.
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Francuzi i Britanci su pokazali interes
za nuklearnu energiju.
za nuklearnu energiju.
05:37
Eastern Europe, still very heavily
committed to natural gas and to coal,
committed to natural gas and to coal,
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Istočna Europa, još uvijek je teško
odana prirodnom gasu i uglju,
odana prirodnom gasu i uglju,
05:42
and with natural gas
that comes from Russia,
that comes from Russia,
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i sa prirodnim gasom
koji dolazi iz Rusije,
koji dolazi iz Rusije,
05:45
with all of its entanglements.
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sa svim njegovim zapletima.
05:47
China has many fewer choices
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Kina ima mnogo manje izbora
05:50
and a much harder row to hoe.
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i mnogo težu rupu iskopati.
05:53
If you look at China, and you ask yourself
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Ako posmatrate Kinu, i zapitate sebe
05:56
why has coal been important to it,
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zašto je ugalj važan
05:58
you have to remember what China's done.
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morate se sjetiti šta je Kina uradila.
06:01
China brought people to power,
not power to people.
not power to people.
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Kina je donijela ljude do energije, a ne
energiju do ljudi.
energiju do ljudi.
06:05
It didn't do rural electrification.
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Nije urađena ruralna elektrifikacija.
06:08
It urbanized.
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Urbanizovana je.
06:09
It urbanized by taking low-cost labor
and low-cost energy,
and low-cost energy,
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Urbanizovana je koristeći jeftinu
radnu snagu i jeftinu cijenu energije,
radnu snagu i jeftinu cijenu energije,
06:14
creating export industries
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praveći izvozne industrije
06:16
that could fund a tremendous
amount of growth.
amount of growth.
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koje bi mogle finansirati ogroman
iznos rasta.
iznos rasta.
06:19
If we look at China's path,
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Ako pogledamo put Kine,
06:21
all of us know that prosperity in China
has dramatically increased.
has dramatically increased.
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svi znamo da se razvoj u Kini
dramatično povečao.
dramatično povečao.
06:26
In 1980, 80 percent of China's population
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U 1980toj, 80% kineske populacije
06:31
lived below the extreme poverty level,
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živjelo ispod granice siromaštva,
06:34
below the level of having
$1.90 per person per day.
$1.90 per person per day.
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ispod granice da imaju 1.90$ po osobi
po danu
po danu
06:38
By the year 2000, only 20 percent
of China's population
of China's population
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2000-te godine, samo 20%
populacije u Kini
populacije u Kini
06:44
lived below the extreme poverty level --
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živjelo je ispod granice siromaštva --
06:47
a remarkable feat,
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izuzetan podvig,
06:49
admittedly, with some costs
in civil liberties
in civil liberties
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doduše, sa nekim cijenama
civilne slobode
civilne slobode
06:52
that would be tough to accept
in the Western world.
in the Western world.
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koje bi bile teško prihvaćene
u zapadnom svijetu.
u zapadnom svijetu.
06:56
But the impact of all that wealth
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Ali utjecaj svog tog bogastva
06:59
allowed people to get
massively better nutrition.
massively better nutrition.
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omogućio je ljudima da dobiju
mnogo bolju ishranu.
mnogo bolju ishranu.
07:03
It allowed water pipes to be placed.
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Omogućio je vodu sa česme.
07:06
It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,
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Omogućio je kanalizaciju,
07:08
dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,
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nagli pad dijareje,
07:12
at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.
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za cijenu određenog zagađenja zraka.
07:16
But in 1980, and even today,
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Ali 1980-te, pa i danas,
07:18
the number one killer in China
is indoor air pollution,
is indoor air pollution,
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broj jedan ubica u Kini je
zagađenje zraka u zatvorenom prostoru
zagađenje zraka u zatvorenom prostoru
07:22
because people do not have access
to clean cooking and heating fuels.
to clean cooking and heating fuels.
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zato što ljudi nemaju pristup
čistom gorivu za kuhanje i grijanje
čistom gorivu za kuhanje i grijanje
07:28
In fact, in 2040,
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Zapravo, 2040-te
07:31
it's still estimated
that 200 million people in China
that 200 million people in China
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još uvijek je procijenjeno,
da 200 miliona ljudi u Kini
da 200 miliona ljudi u Kini
07:36
will not have access
to clean cooking fuels.
to clean cooking fuels.
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neće imati pristup čistom
gorivu za kuhanje.
gorivu za kuhanje.
07:41
They have a remarkable path to follow.
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Oni su izuzetan primjer.
07:44
India also needs to meet the needs
of its own people,
of its own people,
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Indija također treba slušati potrebe
svoga naroda
svoga naroda
07:49
and it's going to do that by burning coal.
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i uraditi će to, spaljivanjem ugljena.
07:52
When we look at the EIA's projections
of coal burning in India,
of coal burning in India,
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Kada pogledamo projekcije od EIA
o spaljivanju ugljena u Indiji,
o spaljivanju ugljena u Indiji,
07:58
India will supply nearly four times
as much of its energy from coal
as much of its energy from coal
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Indija će snabdjeti skoro četiri puta
više energije od uglja
više energije od uglja
08:03
as it will from renewables.
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nego što bi iz obnovljivih izvora.
08:06
It's not because they don't know
the alternatives;
the alternatives;
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To nije zato što oni ne znaju alternativu;
08:09
it's because rich countries
can do what they choose,
can do what they choose,
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to je zato što bogate države
mogu raditi šta hoće,
mogu raditi šta hoće,
08:14
poor countries do what they must.
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siromašne rade šta moraju.
08:18
So what can we do to stop
coal's emissions in time?
coal's emissions in time?
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Pa šta možemo učiniti da na vrijeme
zaustavimo emisiju ugljena?
zaustavimo emisiju ugljena?
08:22
What can we do that changes
this forecast that's in front of us?
this forecast that's in front of us?
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Šta učiniti da promjenimo predviđanje
koje je pred nama?
koje je pred nama?
08:27
Because it's a forecast that we can change
if we have the will to do it.
if we have the will to do it.
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Zato što je predviđanje to koje možemo
promjeniti ako imam volju.
promjeniti ako imam volju.
08:33
First of all, we have to think
about the magnitude of the problem.
about the magnitude of the problem.
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Prvo, moramo razmisliti o
veličini problema
veličini problema
08:36
Between now and 2040,
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Između danas i 2040-te,
08:39
800 to 1,600 new coal plants
are going to be built around the world.
are going to be built around the world.
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800 do 1600 novih fabrika ugljena će
biti izgrađeno širom svijeta
biti izgrađeno širom svijeta
08:46
This week, between one and three
one-gigawatt coal plants
one-gigawatt coal plants
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Ove sedmice, između jedne i tri
jedno-gigavatne fabrike ugljena
jedno-gigavatne fabrike ugljena
08:50
are being turned on around the world.
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otvore se širom svijeta.
08:53
That's happening regardless
of what we want,
of what we want,
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To se dešava bez obzira
šta mi želimo,
šta mi želimo,
08:57
because the people
that rule their countries,
that rule their countries,
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zato što ljudi
koji vladaju svojim državama
koji vladaju svojim državama
09:00
assessing the interests of their citizens,
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procjenjivajući interes svojih građana
09:02
have decided it's in the interest
of their citizens to do that.
of their citizens to do that.
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su odlučili da je u interesu građana
tako da urade.
tako da urade.
09:07
And that's going to happen
unless they have a better alternative.
unless they have a better alternative.
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I to će se dogoditi
osim ako imaju bolju alternativu.
osim ako imaju bolju alternativu.
09:11
And every 100 of those plants will use up
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I svaka 100-ta od tih fabrika će koristiti
09:15
between one percent and three percent
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između jedan i tri posto
09:18
of the Earth's climate budget.
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Zemljinog klimatskog budžeta.
09:21
So every day that you go home
thinking that you should do something
thinking that you should do something
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Pa svaki dan kad ideš kući
misleći da si trebao učiniti nešto
misleći da si trebao učiniti nešto
09:24
about global warming,
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oko globalnog zagrijavanja
09:26
at the end of that week, remember:
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na kraju sedmice, zapamti:
09:28
somebody fired up a coal plant
that's going to run for 50 years
that's going to run for 50 years
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neko je potpalio fabriku ugljena
koja će raditi sljedećih 50 godina
koja će raditi sljedećih 50 godina
09:32
and take away your ability to change it.
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i odnijeti tvoju mogućnost za promjenom
09:37
What we've forgotten is something
that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,
that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,
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Šta smo zaboravili je nešto što
Vinod Khosla je znao govoriti
Vinod Khosla je znao govoriti
09:41
a man of Indian ethnicity
but an American venture capitalist.
but an American venture capitalist.
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čovjek indijskog porijekla
ali američki kapitalista.
ali američki kapitalista.
09:45
And he said, back in the early 2000s,
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Rekao je, rane 2000-te
09:48
that if you needed to get
China and India off of fossil fuels,
China and India off of fossil fuels,
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da ako želiš skinuti Kinu i Indiju
sa fosilnih goriva,
sa fosilnih goriva,
09:52
you had to create a technology
that passed the "Chindia test,"
that passed the "Chindia test,"
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trebaš napraviti tehnologiju koja je
položila "Kinindija test"
položila "Kinindija test"
09:56
"Chindia" being the appending
of the two words.
of the two words.
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"Kinindija" sa dodavanjem dvije riječi.
09:59
It had to be first of all viable,
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Kako prvo mora biti sposobna za život,
10:02
meaning that technically, they could
implement it in their country,
implement it in their country,
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znači tehnički, da to mogu
implementirati u državi,
implementirati u državi,
10:05
and that it would be accepted
by the people in the country.
by the people in the country.
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i da će biti prihvaćeno od strane
ljudi u državi.
ljudi u državi.
10:10
Two, it had to be a technology
that was scalable,
that was scalable,
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Drugo, mora biti tehnologija koja
je mjerljiva,
je mjerljiva,
10:16
that it could deliver the same benefits
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da može dostaviti iste pogodnosti
10:19
on the same timetable as fossil fuels,
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na istoj vremenskoj ljestvici kao fosilna
goriva,
goriva,
10:23
so that they can enjoy the kind of life,
again, that we take for granted.
again, that we take for granted.
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tako da mogu ponovo uživati u životu,
kojeg smo uzeli zdravo za gotovo.
kojeg smo uzeli zdravo za gotovo.
10:27
And third, it had to be cost-effective
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I treće, mora biti isplativo
10:30
without subsidy or without mandate.
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bez subvencija ili mandata.
10:33
It had to stand on its own two feet;
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Mora stajati na vlastitim nogama;
10:36
it could not be maintained
for that many people
for that many people
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ne može se održavati za tako mnogo ljudi
10:40
if in fact, those countries
had to go begging
had to go begging
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zapravo, te države moraju moliti
10:43
or had some foreign country say,
"I won't trade with you,"
"I won't trade with you,"
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ili imati stranu državu koja će reći,
" Neću trgovati s tobom,"
" Neću trgovati s tobom,"
10:47
in order to get
the technology shift to occur.
the technology shift to occur.
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da bi tehnologija napravila pomak.
10:52
If you look at the Chindia test,
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Ako pogledamo Chindia test,
10:53
we simply have not come up
with alternatives that meet that test.
with alternatives that meet that test.
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jednostavno nismo došli do alternativa
koje zadovoljavaju taj test.
koje zadovoljavaju taj test.
10:58
That's what the EIA forecast tells us.
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To je ono šta EIA predviđanja kažu nam.
11:02
China's building 800 gigawatts of coal,
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Kina gradi 800 gigavatnu fabriku ugljena,
11:06
400 gigawatts of hydro,
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400 gigavatnu hidrocentralu,
11:09
about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,
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oko 200 gigavatnu nuklearnu,
11:12
and on an energy-equivalent basis,
adjusting for intermittency,
adjusting for intermittency,
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i na energetski ekvivalentnoj osnovi,
prilagođena izostajanju,
prilagođena izostajanju,
11:16
about 100 gigawatts of renewables.
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oko 100 gigavata iz obnovljvih izvora.
11:19
800 gigawatts of coal.
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800 gigavata ugljena.
11:21
They're doing that, knowing the costs
better than any other country,
better than any other country,
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Oni rade to, znajući troškove
bolje nego i jedna druga država
bolje nego i jedna druga država
11:25
knowing the need better
than any other country.
than any other country.
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znajući potrebe bolje
nego i jedna druga država.
nego i jedna druga država.
11:28
But that's what they're aiming for in 2040
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Ali to je na šta ciljaju 2040-te
11:31
unless we give them a better choice.
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osim ako im ne dadnemo bolji izbor.
11:34
To give them a better choice,
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Da bi im dali bolji izbor,
11:35
it's going to have to meet
the Chindia test.
the Chindia test.
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morati će zadovoljiti Chindia test.
11:38
If you look at all the alternatives
that are out there,
that are out there,
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Ako pogledaš sve alternative
koje se tamo nalaze,
koje se tamo nalaze,
11:40
there are really two
that come near to meeting it.
that come near to meeting it.
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tu su dvije
koje su blizu zadovoljenja.
koje su blizu zadovoljenja.
11:43
First is this area of new nuclear
that I'll talk about in just a second.
that I'll talk about in just a second.
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Prvo je li ovo novi nuklearni prostor
o kojem sam maloprije govorio
o kojem sam maloprije govorio
11:48
It's a new generation of nuclear plants
that are on the drawing boards
that are on the drawing boards
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To je nova generacija nuklearnih fabrika
koje su na tabli za crtanje
koje su na tabli za crtanje
11:51
around the world,
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oko svijeta,
11:52
and the people who are
developing these say
developing these say
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i ljudi koji ovo razvijaju kažu
11:55
we can get them
in position to demo by 2025
in position to demo by 2025
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možemo ih imati u poziciji
za probu 2025-te
za probu 2025-te
11:59
and to scale by 2030,
if you will just let us.
if you will just let us.
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i za ocjenu 2030-te,
ako nam dopustite.
ako nam dopustite.
12:03
The second alternative
that could be there in time
that could be there in time
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Druga alternativa koja bi mogla biti tu
na vrijeme
na vrijeme
12:06
is utility-scale solar
backed up with natural gas,
backed up with natural gas,
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je komunalnih razmjera solarna
dodatna pohrana prirodnog gasa
dodatna pohrana prirodnog gasa
12:10
which we can use today,
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koju možemo danas koristiti,
12:12
versus the batteries
which are still under development.
which are still under development.
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naspram baterija koje su
još uvijek u razvoju.
još uvijek u razvoju.
12:16
So what's holding new nuclear back?
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Pa šta koči novu nuklearnu
12:19
Outdated regulations
and yesterday's mindsets.
and yesterday's mindsets.
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Zastarjeli propisi i
jučerašnji mentalitet
jučerašnji mentalitet
12:23
We have not used our latest
scientific thinking on radiological health
scientific thinking on radiological health
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Nismo iskoristili naše zadnje naučno
promišljanje o radiološkom zdravlju
promišljanje o radiološkom zdravlju
12:28
to think how we communicate
with the public
with the public
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da razmislimo kako komuniciramo
sa javnosti
sa javnosti
12:30
and govern the testing
of new nuclear reactors.
of new nuclear reactors.
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i vladamo testiranjem novih
nuklearnih reaktora.
nuklearnih reaktora.
12:33
We have new scientific knowledge
that we need to use
that we need to use
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Imamo novo naučno saznanje
koje moramo iskoristiti
koje moramo iskoristiti
12:37
in order to improve the way
we regulate nuclear industry.
we regulate nuclear industry.
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kako bi poboljšali put
kojim regulišemo nuklearnu industriju
kojim regulišemo nuklearnu industriju
12:42
The second thing is we've got a mindset
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Druga stvar je da imamo razmišljane
12:45
that it takes 25 years
and 2 to 5 billion dollars
and 2 to 5 billion dollars
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kojem je potrebno 25 godina
i 2 do 5 milijarde dolara
i 2 do 5 milijarde dolara
12:48
to develop a nuclear power plant.
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kako bi razvili nuklearnu fabriku.
12:49
That comes from the historical,
military mindset
military mindset
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To dolazi od historijskog, vojnog
razmišljanja
razmišljanja
12:54
of the places nuclear power came from.
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od mjesta sa kojeg je nuklearna snaga
stigla.
stigla.
12:57
These new nuclear ventures are saying
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Ova nova nuklearnih ulaganja kažu
12:59
that they can deliver power
for 5 cents a kilowatt hour;
for 5 cents a kilowatt hour;
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da mogu dostaviti energiju za 5 centi
po kilovat satu;
po kilovat satu;
13:03
they can deliver it
for 100 gigawatts a year;
for 100 gigawatts a year;
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mogu dostaviti 100 gigavata
za godinu
za godinu
13:06
they can demo it by 2025;
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mogu testirati ih 2025-te;
13:09
and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,
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i isporučiti na mjerenje 2030-te,
13:12
if only we give them a chance.
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ako ćemo im dati šansu.
13:16
Right now, we're basically
waiting for a miracle.
waiting for a miracle.
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Upravo sada, mi u suštini čekamo čudo.
13:19
What we need is a choice.
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Šta mi trebamo
jeste izbor.
jeste izbor.
13:21
If they can't make it safe,
if they can't make it cheap,
if they can't make it cheap,
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Ako ne mogu napraviti ih sigurne,
ako ne mogu napraviti ih jeftine,
ako ne mogu napraviti ih jeftine,
13:24
it should not be deployed.
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ne bi trebale biti razvijene.
13:26
But what I want you to do
is not carry an idea forward,
is not carry an idea forward,
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Ali šta ja želim od tebe, nije da nosiš
ideju naprijed,
ideju naprijed,
13:30
but write your leaders,
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ali piši vođama,
13:32
write the head of the NGOs you support,
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piši glavnom NVO kojeg podržavaš,
13:34
and tell them to give you the choice,
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i reci im da ti daju izbor,
13:38
not the past.
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ne prošlost.
13:39
Thank you very much.
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Mnogo vam hvala.
13:40
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Joe Lassiter - Energy scholarJoe Lassiter focuses on one of the world’s most pressing problems: developing clean, secure and carbon-neutral supplies of reliable, low-cost energy all around the world.
Why you should listen
As the Senator John Heinz Professor of Management Practice in Environmental Management, Retired and current Senior Fellow at Harvard Business School, Joe Lassiter studies how high-potential ventures attacking the energy problem are being financed and how their innovations are being brought to market in different parts of the world. In the MBA and executive education programs, he teaches about the lessons learned from these ventures as well as potential improvements in business practices, regulation and government policy. Lassiter also supports University-wide efforts as a faculty fellow of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program and a faculty associate of the Harvard University Center for the Environment.
Following a 20-year career leading technology businesses, Lassiter joined HBS in 1996. He has taught courses in entrepreneurial finance, entrepreneurial marketing and innovation in business, energy & environment. For Harvard University, he taught courses in innovation & entrepreneurship to undergraduates, graduate students and post-doctoral fellows across the University and its affiliated hospitals. From its founding in 2010 until 2015, Lassuter was Faculty Chair of the University-wide Harvard Innovation Lab (Harvard i-lab).
Lassiter received his BS, MS, and PhD from MIT and was awarded National Science, Adams and McDermott Fellowships. He was elected to Sigma Xi.
Joe Lassiter | Speaker | TED.com