TEDSummit
Joe Lassiter: We need nuclear power to solve climate change
乔 莱斯特: 利用核能源解决气候变化问题
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
1,192,799 views
乔 莱斯特是一名在开发清洁、安全和碳平衡的能源方面的思考者和直言者。他深入地研究了长久以来被人们认为是敏感话题的核能源，包括对核电站的重新设计，使得核电站的经济性能够和传统能源相媲美。莱斯特认为，在核能源的安全性和经济性上， 我们还有很多潜力可以发掘。现在我们必须下定决心实现它。
Joe Lassiter - Energy scholar
Joe Lassiter focuses on one of the world’s most pressing problems: developing clean, secure and carbon-neutral supplies of reliable, low-cost energy all around the world. Full bio
Joe Lassiter focuses on one of the world’s most pressing problems: developing clean, secure and carbon-neutral supplies of reliable, low-cost energy all around the world. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
It's easy to forget that last night,
0
980
2472
我们很难意识到昨天晚上
00:16
one billion people went to sleep
without access to electricity.
without access to electricity.
1
4203
3479
十亿人在没有电的条件下进入梦乡
00:20
One billion people.
2
8094
1330
十亿人
25亿人没有清洁的能源用来做饭
00:22
Two and a half billion people
did not have access to clean cooking fuels
did not have access to clean cooking fuels
3
10298
4739
00:27
or clean heating fuels.
4
15553
1332
以及供暖
00:30
Those are the problems
in the developing world.
in the developing world.
5
18234
2362
这些都是发展中国家存在的问题
00:32
And it's easy for us not to be empathetic
6
20982
2636
同时我们也容易忽视
00:35
with those people
who seem so distanced from us.
who seem so distanced from us.
7
23642
2313
距离我们十分遥远的人们所经历的痛苦
00:38
But even in our own world,
the developed world,
the developed world,
8
26331
2775
但是即使是在我们发达国家
00:41
we see the tension of stagnant economies
9
29725
2905
经济发展的停滞不前
00:45
impacting the lives of people around us.
10
33234
2615
也会对我们的生活产生影响
00:48
We see it in whole pieces of the economy,
11
36241
3104
在整个经济发展的进程中
00:51
where the people involved
have lost hope about the future
have lost hope about the future
12
39813
3099
许多时候人们会失去对未来的希望
00:55
and despair about the present.
13
43220
1722
甚至对现在感到绝望
00:57
We see that in the Brexit vote.
14
45457
1548
我们可以在英国脱欧公投中看到
00:59
We see that in the Sanders/Trump
campaigns in my own country.
campaigns in my own country.
15
47546
3439
在桑德斯和特朗普的辩论中看到
01:03
But even in countries as recently
turning the corner
turning the corner
16
51667
4528
即使是在最近正在转型
01:08
towards being in the developed world,
17
56619
1820
即将成为发达国家的
01:10
in China,
18
58463
1240
中国
01:11
we see the difficulty
that President Xi has
that President Xi has
19
59727
2576
习主席也处于同样的困境中
01:14
as he begins to un-employ so many people
in his coal and mining industries
in his coal and mining industries
20
62700
4966
开始解雇煤矿行业的大量工人
01:20
who see no future for themselves.
21
68214
1931
他们知道自己的未来希望渺茫
01:23
As we as a society
figure out how to manage
figure out how to manage
22
71183
3003
整个社会都在设法解决
01:26
the problems of the developed world
23
74210
1953
发达国家所存在的问题
01:28
and the problems of the developing world,
24
76187
2048
以及发展中国家存在的问题
01:30
we have to look at how we move forward
25
78259
2848
我们必须探寻一条出路
01:33
and manage the environmental impact
of those decisions.
of those decisions.
26
81131
3710
并且控制随之而来的环境上的影响
01:37
We've been working on this problem
for 25 years, since Rio,
for 25 years, since Rio,
27
85868
3099
我们已经开始处理这个问题25年了
从里约
从里约
01:40
the Kyoto Protocols.
28
88991
1683
到京都议定
01:43
Our most recent move is the Paris treaty,
29
91223
2574
我们最近的一次倡导是巴黎协定
01:46
and the resulting climate agreements
30
94514
2574
各国之间就气候问题
01:49
that are being ratified
by nations around the world.
by nations around the world.
31
97112
2909
达成了一致
01:52
I think we can be very hopeful
32
100045
2187
我认为我们应该充满希望
01:54
that those agreements,
which are bottom-up agreements,
which are bottom-up agreements,
33
102256
3138
因为那些协定从实际出发
01:57
where nations have said
what they think they can do,
what they think they can do,
34
105418
2861
参与的国家指明了自己所能做的
02:00
are genuine and forthcoming
for the vast majority of the parties.
for the vast majority of the parties.
35
108303
4078
对于大多数国家来说
都是真诚而切实的
都是真诚而切实的
02:04
The unfortunate thing
36
112977
1568
不幸的是
02:07
is that now, as we look
at the independent analyses
at the independent analyses
37
115205
3527
当我们看那些条约中
02:10
of what those climate treaties
are liable to yield,
are liable to yield,
38
118756
3199
由独立研究机构提到的责任时
02:15
the magnitude of the problem
before us becomes clear.
before us becomes clear.
39
123083
2909
问题的严重性就变得明确了
02:18
This is the United States
Energy Information Agency's assessment
Energy Information Agency's assessment
40
126965
4073
美国能源信息局的调查显示出
02:23
of what will happen if the countries
implement the climate commitments
implement the climate commitments
41
131625
4688
如果各国遵守诺言
02:28
that they've made in Paris
42
136337
2036
那么实施条约中规定的结果如此
02:30
between now and 2040.
43
138397
1951
范围是从现在到2040年
02:33
It shows basically CO2 emissions
around the world
around the world
44
141221
4220
它显示了未来30年间
02:37
over the next 30 years.
45
145465
1681
全球二氧化碳的排放量
02:40
There are three things that you need
to look at and appreciate.
to look at and appreciate.
46
148236
3516
值得注意的有三点
02:44
One, CO2 emissions are expected
to continue to grow
to continue to grow
47
152177
4171
首先，在未来的三十年内
02:48
for the next 30 years.
48
156372
1459
二氧化碳的排放量将会不断增长
02:51
In order to control climate,
49
159265
2266
为了控制气候变暖
02:54
CO2 emissions have to literally go to zero
50
162054
2986
二氧化碳的排放量必须被消除
02:57
because it's the cumulative emissions
that drive heating on the planet.
that drive heating on the planet.
51
165564
4154
因为累积起来的二氧化碳
会不断加剧全球变暖
会不断加剧全球变暖
03:02
This should tell you that we are losing
the race to fossil fuels.
the race to fossil fuels.
52
170445
4115
这表明我们正失去与化石燃料的竞争
03:07
The second thing you should notice
53
175567
1863
值得注意的第二点是
03:09
is that the bulk of the growth
comes from the developing countries,
comes from the developing countries,
54
177454
4293
大部分碳排放的增长
来自于发展中国家
来自于发展中国家
03:13
from China, from India,
from the rest of the world,
from the rest of the world,
55
181771
3065
比如中国、印度
以及世界的其他地区
以及世界的其他地区
03:16
which includes South Africa
and Indonesia and Brazil,
and Indonesia and Brazil,
56
184860
3239
包括南非、印度尼西亚和巴西
03:21
as most of these countries
move their people
move their people
57
189024
2829
大多数的发展中国家试图改变
03:24
into the lower range of lifestyles
58
192353
2911
人民的生活方式来减少CO2 排放量
03:27
that we literally take for granted
in the developed world.
in the developed world.
59
195288
3766
我们这些发达国家的人
可能视之为理所当然
可能视之为理所当然
03:32
The final thing that you should notice
60
200495
2383
最后一点是
03:34
is that each year,
61
202902
1659
每年
03:37
about 10 gigatons of carbon are getting
added to the planet's atmosphere,
added to the planet's atmosphere,
62
205394
6960
大约有一百亿吨的碳
被排放到大气中
被排放到大气中
03:44
and then diffusing into the ocean
and into the land.
and into the land.
63
212994
2632
然后进入到海洋和土地中
03:48
That's on top of the 550 gigatons
that are in place today.
that are in place today.
64
216011
5310
到目前为止
已经有550千兆吨的碳被这样吸收
已经有550千兆吨的碳被这样吸收
03:54
At the end of 30 years,
65
222062
1834
在30年后
03:55
we will have put 850 gigatons
of carbon into the air,
of carbon into the air,
66
223920
4553
我们将向空气中排放850千兆吨的碳
04:01
and that probably goes a long way
67
229171
2251
也许我们距离
04:03
towards locking in a 2-4 degree C increase
in global mean surface temperatures,
in global mean surface temperatures,
68
231446
6161
全球平均气温上升2到4度
04:10
locking in ocean acidification
69
238140
2686
海水酸化
04:13
and locking in sea level rise.
70
241227
1977
海平面上升还有很远
04:16
Now, this is a projection made by men
71
244379
2826
这个预测是由人类自己
04:20
by the actions of society,
72
248197
1928
和整个社会做出的
04:22
and it's ours to change, not to accept.
73
250863
2476
我们应该改变，而不是接受
04:25
But the magnitude of the problem
is something we need to appreciate.
is something we need to appreciate.
74
253912
3878
但这个问题需要我们充分的理解
04:30
Different nations make
different energy choices.
different energy choices.
75
258648
2443
不同的国家在能源上
会做出不同的选择
会做出不同的选择
04:33
It's a function
of their natural resources.
of their natural resources.
76
261115
2327
这与各国的自然资源储量
04:35
It's a function of their climate.
77
263466
2009
气候状况
04:37
It's a function of the development path
that they've followed as a society.
that they've followed as a society.
78
265499
4482
社会发展的道路
04:42
It's a function of where
on the surface of the planet they are.
on the surface of the planet they are.
79
270664
3503
在全球的地理位置
都有着密切联系
都有着密切联系
04:46
Are they where it's dark
a lot of the time,
a lot of the time,
80
274191
2500
他们是处于长期黑夜的地区
04:48
or are they at the mid-latitudes?
81
276715
1861
或是中纬度地区
04:50
Many, many, many things
go into the choices of countries,
go into the choices of countries,
82
278989
3719
很多很多的因素
都会影响一个国家所作出的决定
都会影响一个国家所作出的决定
04:55
and they each make a different choice.
83
283185
2177
每一个国家就会有不同的选择
04:58
The overwhelming thing
that we need to appreciate
that we need to appreciate
84
286878
3162
我们还需要理解
一个十分重要的话题
一个十分重要的话题
05:02
is the choice that China has made.
85
290064
1917
就是中国所作出的选择
05:04
China has made the choice,
86
292695
2594
中国已经决定
05:07
and will make the choice, to run on coal.
87
295313
2505
而且会坚持依靠煤炭作为能源
05:10
The United States has an alternative.
88
298358
2019
美国有另一种选择
05:12
It can run on natural gas
89
300401
1757
可以依靠天然气作为能源
05:14
as a result of the inventions
of fracking and shale gas,
of fracking and shale gas,
90
302182
3825
由于水力压裂的发明
和页岩气的储备
和页岩气的储备
05:18
which we have here.
91
306031
1471
也就是目前所使用的方法
05:19
They provide an alternative.
92
307526
1565
它们提供了一种新的可能
05:22
The OECD Europe has a choice.
93
310662
2711
欧盟也有自己的选择
05:25
It has renewables that it can afford
to deploy in Germany
to deploy in Germany
94
313881
3069
他们可以承担得起
从德国运输的可再生能源
从德国运输的可再生能源
05:28
because it's rich enough
to afford to do it.
to afford to do it.
95
316974
2617
这是欧盟经济发展的结果
05:31
The French and the British
show interest in nuclear power.
show interest in nuclear power.
96
319615
5488
法国和英国对核能源产生兴趣
05:37
Eastern Europe, still very heavily
committed to natural gas and to coal,
committed to natural gas and to coal,
97
325702
4605
东欧国家依旧坚持
以天然气和煤炭作为能源
以天然气和煤炭作为能源
05:42
and with natural gas
that comes from Russia,
that comes from Russia,
98
330331
2728
使用从俄罗斯输送来的天然气
05:45
with all of its entanglements.
99
333083
1770
这其中有着十分复杂的联系
05:47
China has many fewer choices
100
335558
2457
中国的选择就少得多
05:50
and a much harder row to hoe.
101
338039
2250
而且举步维艰
05:53
If you look at China, and you ask yourself
102
341557
3032
试想中国
05:56
why has coal been important to it,
103
344613
2204
为什么煤炭对中国如此重要呢？
05:58
you have to remember what China's done.
104
346841
2212
你必须明白中国做了什么
06:01
China brought people to power,
not power to people.
not power to people.
105
349534
3307
中国使人们趋向财富
而不是授予人们权利
而不是授予人们权利
06:05
It didn't do rural electrification.
106
353380
2450
中国没有实行农村电气化
06:08
It urbanized.
107
356427
1174
而是采用了城市化
06:09
It urbanized by taking low-cost labor
and low-cost energy,
and low-cost energy,
108
357954
4204
通过更多廉价的劳动力和能源
来实现城市化
来实现城市化
06:14
creating export industries
109
362182
1917
带动出口产业的发展
06:16
that could fund a tremendous
amount of growth.
amount of growth.
110
364123
2507
这些使得中国经济飞速发展
06:19
If we look at China's path,
111
367535
2204
如果我们回顾中国的发展历程
06:21
all of us know that prosperity in China
has dramatically increased.
has dramatically increased.
112
369763
4133
我们都知道中国的经济水平
已经有了大幅度的提升
已经有了大幅度的提升
06:26
In 1980, 80 percent of China's population
113
374713
4546
1980年，中国80%的人口
06:31
lived below the extreme poverty level,
114
379283
2434
处于极度贫困的水平之下
06:34
below the level of having
$1.90 per person per day.
$1.90 per person per day.
115
382493
3760
低于每人每天1.9美元的水平
06:38
By the year 2000, only 20 percent
of China's population
of China's population
116
386658
5472
到了2000年， 中国只有20%的人口
06:44
lived below the extreme poverty level --
117
392154
2534
仍处于极度贫困的水平以下
06:47
a remarkable feat,
118
395498
1694
实在是一大壮举
06:49
admittedly, with some costs
in civil liberties
in civil liberties
119
397977
2367
不可否认，其中有失去公民自由的代价
06:52
that would be tough to accept
in the Western world.
in the Western world.
120
400368
2956
这也是许多西方国家难以接受的
06:56
But the impact of all that wealth
121
404548
2907
但是收入增长
06:59
allowed people to get
massively better nutrition.
massively better nutrition.
122
407479
3513
改善了人民的健康状况
07:03
It allowed water pipes to be placed.
123
411484
2715
修建了自来水管
07:06
It allowed sewage pipes to be placed,
124
414223
2459
修建了下水管道
07:08
dramatic decrease in diarrheal diseases,
125
416706
2972
大大降低了痢疾的发病率
07:12
at the cost of some outdoor air pollution.
126
420590
2623
这些进步以室外空气污染作为代价
07:16
But in 1980, and even today,
127
424070
2280
但在1980年，即使是现在
07:18
the number one killer in China
is indoor air pollution,
is indoor air pollution,
128
426374
4007
室内空气污染
才是中国健康的头号杀手
才是中国健康的头号杀手
07:22
because people do not have access
to clean cooking and heating fuels.
to clean cooking and heating fuels.
129
430833
4769
因为人们没有清洁的能源
可供做饭和取暖
可供做饭和取暖
07:28
In fact, in 2040,
130
436066
2108
事实上，直到2040年
07:31
it's still estimated
that 200 million people in China
that 200 million people in China
131
439794
4775
中国大约仍有2亿人
07:36
will not have access
to clean cooking fuels.
to clean cooking fuels.
132
444593
3551
无法使用清洁的能源做饭
07:41
They have a remarkable path to follow.
133
449133
2356
他们的发展道路十分特殊
07:44
India also needs to meet the needs
of its own people,
of its own people,
134
452854
4748
印度同样需要满足人民的需求
07:49
and it's going to do that by burning coal.
135
457626
2174
解决办法则是燃烧煤炭
07:52
When we look at the EIA's projections
of coal burning in India,
of coal burning in India,
136
460475
5478
当我们看到能源信息局
对印度煤炭燃烧的预测时
对印度煤炭燃烧的预测时
07:58
India will supply nearly four times
as much of its energy from coal
as much of its energy from coal
137
466591
4903
印度依靠煤炭产生的能量
08:03
as it will from renewables.
138
471518
2039
将会是可再生能源的四倍
08:06
It's not because they don't know
the alternatives;
the alternatives;
139
474962
2853
这并不是由于
他们不知道有其他选择
他们不知道有其他选择
08:09
it's because rich countries
can do what they choose,
can do what they choose,
140
477839
3745
而是因为只有富裕的国家
才能随意做出选择
才能随意做出选择
08:14
poor countries do what they must.
141
482162
2147
而贫困的国家只能尽其所能
08:18
So what can we do to stop
coal's emissions in time?
coal's emissions in time?
142
486198
3685
那么我们怎样才能
及时解决碳排放问题呢？
及时解决碳排放问题呢？
08:22
What can we do that changes
this forecast that's in front of us?
this forecast that's in front of us?
143
490899
4612
对于这样的预测
我们又有怎样的对策呢？
我们又有怎样的对策呢？
08:27
Because it's a forecast that we can change
if we have the will to do it.
if we have the will to do it.
144
495535
4067
因为只要我们有足够的意志
我们就能改变这种状况
我们就能改变这种状况
08:33
First of all, we have to think
about the magnitude of the problem.
about the magnitude of the problem.
145
501094
3419
首先 我们需要考虑问题的严重性
08:36
Between now and 2040,
146
504537
2044
从现在到2040年
08:39
800 to 1,600 new coal plants
are going to be built around the world.
are going to be built around the world.
147
507104
5743
全球将会建造800到1600个煤电厂
08:46
This week, between one and three
one-gigawatt coal plants
one-gigawatt coal plants
148
514085
4609
这个星期，世界范围内将会有
08:50
are being turned on around the world.
149
518718
2211
一到三个一千兆瓦的煤电厂投入使用
08:53
That's happening regardless
of what we want,
of what we want,
150
521817
4050
无论我们愿不愿意
这些都会发生
这些都会发生
08:57
because the people
that rule their countries,
that rule their countries,
151
525891
2508
因为那些管理自己国家的人
09:00
assessing the interests of their citizens,
152
528423
2370
通过评估公民的意愿
09:02
have decided it's in the interest
of their citizens to do that.
of their citizens to do that.
153
530817
3415
已经决定了
这就是符合公民意愿的做法
这就是符合公民意愿的做法
09:07
And that's going to happen
unless they have a better alternative.
unless they have a better alternative.
154
535335
3967
他们将不会做出改变
除非有更好的选择
除非有更好的选择
09:11
And every 100 of those plants will use up
155
539726
3757
这其中每100个煤电厂
09:15
between one percent and three percent
156
543507
3131
都会用掉1-3%的
09:18
of the Earth's climate budget.
157
546662
1618
对未来气候做出的预算
09:21
So every day that you go home
thinking that you should do something
thinking that you should do something
158
549264
3491
所以每天当你回家
09:24
about global warming,
159
552779
1276
想着自己应该为全球变暖
做些什么的时候
做些什么的时候
09:26
at the end of that week, remember:
160
554594
1932
过了一周，记住：
09:28
somebody fired up a coal plant
that's going to run for 50 years
that's going to run for 50 years
161
556550
4393
一座可以使用五十年的
煤电厂已经被建造
煤电厂已经被建造
09:32
and take away your ability to change it.
162
560967
3076
并且夺走了
你想要改善全球气候的能力
你想要改善全球气候的能力
09:37
What we've forgotten is something
that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,
that Vinod Khosla used to talk about,
163
565972
3594
我们忘记了维诺德·柯斯拉
09:41
a man of Indian ethnicity
but an American venture capitalist.
but an American venture capitalist.
164
569590
3122
一位印度裔美国风险投资家所说的
09:45
And he said, back in the early 2000s,
165
573339
2825
回溯到二十一世纪早期
09:48
that if you needed to get
China and India off of fossil fuels,
China and India off of fossil fuels,
166
576188
4007
如果你想让中国和印度摆脱化石燃料
09:52
you had to create a technology
that passed the "Chindia test,"
that passed the "Chindia test,"
167
580219
3596
你必须创造出一项科技
能够通过“中印测试”
能够通过“中印测试”
09:56
"Chindia" being the appending
of the two words.
of the two words.
168
584640
2459
“中印”是中国和印度的合称
09:59
It had to be first of all viable,
169
587900
2359
首先 它必须是可行的
10:02
meaning that technically, they could
implement it in their country,
implement it in their country,
170
590283
3594
严格意义上来说
这意味着它在两国是可实施的
这意味着它在两国是可实施的
10:05
and that it would be accepted
by the people in the country.
by the people in the country.
171
593901
3004
并且能被两国人民所接受
10:10
Two, it had to be a technology
that was scalable,
that was scalable,
172
598191
6573
其次 它必须是可扩展的
10:16
that it could deliver the same benefits
173
604788
3018
也就是和化石燃料相比
10:19
on the same timetable as fossil fuels,
174
607830
3077
在同一时间内能产生同等收益
10:23
so that they can enjoy the kind of life,
again, that we take for granted.
again, that we take for granted.
175
611387
3792
他们就能以此享受
我们认为是理所当然的生活
我们认为是理所当然的生活
10:27
And third, it had to be cost-effective
176
615766
2509
再次 它必须是合算的
10:30
without subsidy or without mandate.
177
618299
2686
不需要任何补助或是命令
10:33
It had to stand on its own two feet;
178
621432
2714
它必须能独立自主地存在
10:36
it could not be maintained
for that many people
for that many people
179
624170
3879
不能受限于一些人或国家
10:40
if in fact, those countries
had to go begging
had to go begging
180
628073
2456
比如那些国家必须通过乞求
10:43
or had some foreign country say,
"I won't trade with you,"
"I won't trade with you,"
181
631009
3819
或是其他的国家威胁与之断交
10:47
in order to get
the technology shift to occur.
the technology shift to occur.
182
635328
3283
来获得技术的转让
10:52
If you look at the Chindia test,
183
640168
1686
此时再回顾“中印测试”
10:53
we simply have not come up
with alternatives that meet that test.
with alternatives that meet that test.
184
641878
4625
我们还没有任何办法能通过它
10:58
That's what the EIA forecast tells us.
185
646984
2844
这就是能源信息局预测的真正含义
11:02
China's building 800 gigawatts of coal,
186
650765
3350
中国正在建造800千兆瓦的煤电站
11:06
400 gigawatts of hydro,
187
654866
2184
400千兆瓦的水电站
11:09
about 200 gigawatts of nuclear,
188
657772
2372
还有大约200千兆瓦的核电站
11:12
and on an energy-equivalent basis,
adjusting for intermittency,
adjusting for intermittency,
189
660501
4061
在调整期间
并且在能源等效的基础上
并且在能源等效的基础上
11:16
about 100 gigawatts of renewables.
190
664586
2291
大约100千兆瓦的可再生能源电站
11:19
800 gigawatts of coal.
191
667554
1908
800千兆瓦的煤电站
11:21
They're doing that, knowing the costs
better than any other country,
better than any other country,
192
669805
3552
他们这么做的同时
比其他任何一个国家都清楚自己的代价
比其他任何一个国家都清楚自己的代价
11:25
knowing the need better
than any other country.
than any other country.
193
673381
2552
也比其他任何一个国家
都清楚自己的需求
都清楚自己的需求
11:28
But that's what they're aiming for in 2040
194
676454
2627
但这就是他们对2040年定下的目标
11:31
unless we give them a better choice.
195
679105
2324
除非我们给予他们更好的选择
11:34
To give them a better choice,
196
682199
1440
为了给出这样的选择
11:35
it's going to have to meet
the Chindia test.
the Chindia test.
197
683663
2561
它必须通过“中印测试”
11:38
If you look at all the alternatives
that are out there,
that are out there,
198
686248
2658
如果你观察这里的每一种可能性
11:40
there are really two
that come near to meeting it.
that come near to meeting it.
199
688930
2500
有两项可能通过测试
11:43
First is this area of new nuclear
that I'll talk about in just a second.
that I'll talk about in just a second.
200
691865
3885
第一个是我即将要说的核能源
11:48
It's a new generation of nuclear plants
that are on the drawing boards
that are on the drawing boards
201
696107
3300
它来自新一代的核电站
11:51
around the world,
202
699431
1276
也是全球规划中的一部分
11:52
and the people who are
developing these say
developing these say
203
700731
2338
核电站的研究者称
11:55
we can get them
in position to demo by 2025
in position to demo by 2025
204
703093
3541
在2025年以前
这些核电站将会开始试用
这些核电站将会开始试用
11:59
and to scale by 2030,
if you will just let us.
if you will just let us.
205
707252
3273
如果条件允许
2030年将会大批量运行
2030年将会大批量运行
12:03
The second alternative
that could be there in time
that could be there in time
206
711246
2834
第二种可能
12:06
is utility-scale solar
backed up with natural gas,
backed up with natural gas,
207
714771
3705
公用事业规模太阳能
与天然气相结合
与天然气相结合
12:10
which we can use today,
208
718500
1724
也就是我们目前正在使用的
12:12
versus the batteries
which are still under development.
which are still under development.
209
720248
2934
相对于正在研发的太阳能电池
12:16
So what's holding new nuclear back?
210
724589
2335
又是什么延缓了
核能源的开发进度呢？
核能源的开发进度呢？
12:19
Outdated regulations
and yesterday's mindsets.
and yesterday's mindsets.
211
727686
3675
过时的管理和陈腐的观念
12:23
We have not used our latest
scientific thinking on radiological health
scientific thinking on radiological health
212
731972
4195
我们没有用最新的放射学思想
12:28
to think how we communicate
with the public
with the public
213
736191
2688
与公众进行交流
12:30
and govern the testing
of new nuclear reactors.
of new nuclear reactors.
214
738903
2378
并管理新的核反应堆实验
12:33
We have new scientific knowledge
that we need to use
that we need to use
215
741729
4197
我们有需要用到的新科学知识
12:37
in order to improve the way
we regulate nuclear industry.
we regulate nuclear industry.
216
745950
4539
来帮助我们治理好核工业
12:42
The second thing is we've got a mindset
217
750872
2449
第二点是我们还在用旧的观念
12:45
that it takes 25 years
and 2 to 5 billion dollars
and 2 to 5 billion dollars
218
753345
2809
认为建造一座核电站需要25年
12:48
to develop a nuclear power plant.
219
756178
1735
以及20至50亿美元
12:49
That comes from the historical,
military mindset
military mindset
220
757937
3929
这些都是老一套的东西
12:54
of the places nuclear power came from.
221
762443
2408
来自核能源的军事发源地
12:57
These new nuclear ventures are saying
222
765356
2211
这些新的核电企业称
12:59
that they can deliver power
for 5 cents a kilowatt hour;
for 5 cents a kilowatt hour;
223
767591
2905
他们能以每千瓦时5美分
的价格输送电力
的价格输送电力
13:03
they can deliver it
for 100 gigawatts a year;
for 100 gigawatts a year;
224
771212
2601
每年生产100千兆瓦的电力
13:06
they can demo it by 2025;
225
774543
2229
2025年开始试用
13:09
and they can deliver it in scale by 2030,
226
777168
3005
2030年开始大规模运行
13:12
if only we give them a chance.
227
780634
2199
只要我们给他们一个机会
13:16
Right now, we're basically
waiting for a miracle.
waiting for a miracle.
228
784064
2903
目前我们基本是在等待一个奇迹
13:19
What we need is a choice.
229
787888
1584
我们需要作出选择
13:21
If they can't make it safe,
if they can't make it cheap,
if they can't make it cheap,
230
789952
2804
如果他们不能做到安全和廉价
13:24
it should not be deployed.
231
792780
1817
核电站就不应该被建成
13:26
But what I want you to do
is not carry an idea forward,
is not carry an idea forward,
232
794621
4054
我想让你做的
不是只有这个想法
不是只有这个想法
13:30
but write your leaders,
233
798699
1651
而是向你的领导提议
13:32
write the head of the NGOs you support,
234
800374
2378
向你所支持的非政府组织写信
13:34
and tell them to give you the choice,
235
802776
2943
让他们给你这个选择
13:38
not the past.
236
806290
1151
而不是停留在过去
13:39
Thank you very much.
237
807465
1184
非常感谢
13:40
(Applause)
238
808673
4792
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Joe Lassiter - Energy scholarJoe Lassiter focuses on one of the world’s most pressing problems: developing clean, secure and carbon-neutral supplies of reliable, low-cost energy all around the world.
Why you should listen
As the Senator John Heinz Professor of Management Practice in Environmental Management, Retired and current Senior Fellow at Harvard Business School, Joe Lassiter studies how high-potential ventures attacking the energy problem are being financed and how their innovations are being brought to market in different parts of the world. In the MBA and executive education programs, he teaches about the lessons learned from these ventures as well as potential improvements in business practices, regulation and government policy. Lassiter also supports University-wide efforts as a faculty fellow of the Harvard Environmental Economics Program and a faculty associate of the Harvard University Center for the Environment.
Following a 20-year career leading technology businesses, Lassiter joined HBS in 1996. He has taught courses in entrepreneurial finance, entrepreneurial marketing and innovation in business, energy & environment. For Harvard University, he taught courses in innovation & entrepreneurship to undergraduates, graduate students and post-doctoral fellows across the University and its affiliated hospitals. From its founding in 2010 until 2015, Lassuter was Faculty Chair of the University-wide Harvard Innovation Lab (Harvard i-lab).
Lassiter received his BS, MS, and PhD from MIT and was awarded National Science, Adams and McDermott Fellowships. He was elected to Sigma Xi.
Joe Lassiter | Speaker | TED.com