TEDGlobal 2011
Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex
Tim Harford: Pokušaji, pogreške i kompleks boga
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Tim Harford, pisac iz područja ekonomije, proučava složene sustave i pronalazi iznenađujuću vezu među onima koji su uspješni: izgrađeni su kroz pokušaje i pogreške. U ovom divnom govoru s konferencije TEDGlobal 2011, traži od nas da prihvatimo vlastitu nasumičnost i počnemo bolje griješiti.
Tim Harford - Economist, journalist, broadcaster
Tim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences. Full bio
Tim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
It's the Second World War.
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Drugi je svjetski rat,
00:17
A German prison camp.
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njemački zarobljenički kamp,
00:20
And this man,
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a ovaj čovjek,
00:23
Archie Cochrane,
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Archie Cochrane,
00:26
is a prisoner of war and a doctor,
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ratni je zarobljenik i liječnik,
00:29
and he has a problem.
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i ima problem.
00:32
The problem is that the men under his care
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Problem je u tome što ljudi o kojima brine
00:35
are suffering
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pate
00:37
from an excruciating and debilitating condition
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u iznimno bolnom stanju koje ih je znatno oslabilo,
00:40
that Archie doesn't really understand.
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a koje Archie baš i ne razumije.
00:43
The symptoms
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Simptomi su
00:45
are this horrible swelling up of fluids under the skin.
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strašno nakupljanje tekućine ispod kože.
00:48
But he doesn't know whether it's an infection, whether it's to do with malnutrition.
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No, on ne zna radi li se o infekciji, ima li to veze s pothranjenošću...
00:51
He doesn't know how to cure it.
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Ne zna kako to liječiti.
00:53
And he's operating in a hostile environment.
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A radi u neprijateljskom okruženju.
00:56
And people do terrible things in wars.
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Ljudi u ratu rade grozne stvari.
00:58
The German camp guards, they've got bored.
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Čuvarima njemačkih kampova postalo je dosadno.
01:01
They've taken to just firing into the prison camp at random
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Počeli su nasumce pucati po zatvoreničkom kampu,
01:03
for fun.
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iz zabave.
01:05
On one particular occasion,
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U jednom konkretnom slučaju,
01:07
one of the guards threw a grenade into the prisoners' lavatory
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jedan od čuvara bacio je granatu u kupaonicu koju su koristili zatvorenici
01:10
while it was full of prisoners.
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i to dok je bila puna zatvorenika.
01:13
He said he heard suspicious laughter.
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Rekao je da je čuo sumnjiv smijeh.
01:15
And Archie Cochrane, as the camp doctor,
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Archie Cochrane, kao liječnik u kampu,
01:18
was one of the first men in
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bio je jedan od prvih koji su došli unutra
01:20
to clear up the mess.
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kako bi počistili nered.
01:22
And one more thing:
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I još jedna stvar:
01:24
Archie was suffering from this illness himself.
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Archie je i sam patio od spomenute bolesti.
01:27
So the situation seemed pretty desperate.
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Situacija se činila prilično očajnom.
01:30
But Archie Cochrane
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No, Archie Cochrane
01:32
was a resourceful person.
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se znao snaći.
01:35
He'd already smuggled vitamin C into the camp,
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Već je prokrijumčario vitamin C u kamp,
01:38
and now he managed
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a sad je uspio
01:40
to get hold of supplies of marmite
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doći do zalihe Marmitea
01:42
on the black market.
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na crnom tržištu.
01:44
Now some of you will be wondering what marmite is.
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Neki od vas pitat će se što je Marmite.
01:47
Marmite is a breakfast spread beloved of the British.
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Marmite je namaz za doručak koji Britanci obožavaju.
01:50
It looks like crude oil.
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Izgleda poput sirovog ulja.
01:52
It tastes ...
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Okus mu je...
01:54
zesty.
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žestok.
01:56
And importantly,
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Ono što je bitno
01:58
it's a rich source
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jest da je bogat
02:00
of vitamin B12.
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vitaminom B12.
02:02
So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can
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Archie je podijelio ljude za koje se brinuo
02:05
into two equal groups.
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u dvije jednake grupe, kako god je najbolje mogao.
02:07
He gives half of them vitamin C.
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Polovici je dao vitamin C,
02:09
He gives half of them vitamin B12.
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a polovici vitamin B12.
02:12
He very carefully and meticulously notes his results
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Pažljivo je i detaljno bilježio rezultate
02:15
in an exercise book.
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u bilježnicu.
02:17
And after just a few days,
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Nakon samo nekoliko dana,
02:19
it becomes clear
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postalo je jasno
02:21
that whatever is causing this illness,
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kako ono što uzrokuje tu bolest
02:24
marmite is the cure.
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Marmite može izliječiti.
02:27
So Cochrane then goes to the Germans who are running the prison camp.
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Zatim je Cochrane otišao Nijemcima koji su vodili zatvorenički kamp.
02:30
Now you've got to imagine at the moment --
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Morate zamisliti, u tom trenutku --
02:32
forget this photo, imagine this guy
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zaboravite ovu fotografiju, zamislite tog čovjeka
02:34
with this long ginger beard and this shock of red hair.
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s dugom crvenom bradom i čupavom crvenom kosom.
02:37
He hasn't been able to shave -- a sort of Billy Connolly figure.
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Nije se mogao obrijati -- nalikovao je na komičara Billyja Connolyja.
02:40
Cochrane, he starts ranting at these Germans
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Cochrane počinje govoriti tim Nijemcima
02:42
in this Scottish accent --
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sa škotskim naglaskom --
02:44
in fluent German, by the way, but in a Scottish accent --
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na tečnom njemačkom, ali sa škotskim naglaskom --
02:47
and explains to them how German culture was the culture
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i objašnjava im kako je njemačka kultura
02:50
that gave Schiller and Goethe to the world.
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svijetu dala Schillera i Goethea.
02:52
And he can't understand
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I ne shvaća
02:54
how this barbarism can be tolerated,
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kako se ovakav barbarizam može tolerirati.
02:56
and he vents his frustrations.
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Izbacio je svoje frustracije.
02:59
And then he goes back to his quarters,
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Zatim se vratio u svoje prostorije,
03:02
breaks down and weeps
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slomio se i zaplakao
03:05
because he's convinced that the situation is hopeless.
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jer je bio uvjeren kako je situacija beznadna.
03:10
But a young German doctor
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No, mladi njemački liječnik
03:13
picks up Archie Cochrane's exercise book
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pronašao je Archiejevu bilježnicu
03:16
and says to his colleagues,
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i rekao svojim kolegama:
03:20
"This evidence is incontrovertible.
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"Ovo su nepobitni dokazi.
03:25
If we don't supply vitamins to the prisoners,
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Ako zatvorenike ne opskrbimo vitaminina,
03:28
it's a war crime."
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činimo ratni zločin."
03:30
And the next morning,
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Sljedećeg su jutra
03:32
supplies of vitamin B12 are delivered to the camp,
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zalihe vitamina B12 dostavljene u kamp
03:35
and the prisoners begin to recover.
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i zatvorenici su se počeli oporavljati.
03:39
Now I'm not telling you this story
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Nisam vam ovu priču ispričao
03:41
because I think Archie Cochrane is a dude,
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jer mislim da je Archie Cochrane frajer,
03:43
although Archie Cochrane is a dude.
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iako Archie Cochrane jest frajer.
03:47
I'm not even telling you the story
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Ovo vam ne pričam
03:49
because I think we should be running
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čak ni zato što mislim da bismo trebali vršiti
03:51
more carefully controlled randomized trials
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pažljivije kontrolirane nasumične pokuse
03:53
in all aspects of public policy,
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u svim aspektima javne politike,
03:55
although I think that would also be completely awesome.
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iako mislim da bi i to bilo super.
03:59
I'm telling you this story
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Ovo vam pričam
04:01
because Archie Cochrane, all his life,
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jer se Archie Cochrane cijelog života
04:04
fought against a terrible affliction,
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borio protiv strašne boli.
04:08
and he realized it was debilitating to individuals
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Shvatio je da to oslabljuje pojedinca
04:12
and it was corrosive to societies.
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i uništava društva.
04:14
And he had a name for it.
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Imao je i ime za to.
04:16
He called it the God complex.
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Nazvao je to kompleksom boga.
04:19
Now I can describe the symptoms of the God complex very, very easily.
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Simptome kompleksa boga mogu vrlo jednostavno opisati.
04:23
So the symptoms of the complex
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Simptomi ovog kompleksa jesu
04:26
are, no matter how complicated the problem,
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da, bez obzira na složenost problema,
04:29
you have an absolutely overwhelming belief
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vi ste apsolutno uvjereni
04:32
that you are infallibly right in your solution.
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da je vaše rješenje savršeno ispravno.
04:36
Now Archie was a doctor,
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Archie je bio liječnik,
04:38
so he hung around with doctors a lot.
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tako da se mnogo družio s drugim liječnicima.
04:40
And doctors suffer from the God complex a lot.
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A liječnici često pate od kompleksa boga.
04:43
Now I'm an economist, I'm not a doctor,
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Ja sam ekonomist, a ne liječnik,
04:45
but I see the God complex around me all the time
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ali stalno primjećujem kompleks boga
04:47
in my fellow economists.
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kod svojih kolega ekonomista.
04:49
I see it in our business leaders.
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Vidim ga kod vodećih poslovnih ljudi.
04:51
I see it in the politicians we vote for --
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Vidim ga kod političara za koje glasamo --
04:53
people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world,
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kod ljudi koji su, suočeni s nevjerojatno složenim situacijama,
04:57
are nevertheless absolutely convinced
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ipak apsolutno uvjereni
05:00
that they understand the way that the world works.
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da razumiju način na koji svijet funkcionira.
05:03
And you know, with the future billions that we've been hearing about,
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A znate, sa svim budućim milijardama o kojima slušamo,
05:06
the world is simply far too complex
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svijet je jednostavno presložen
05:08
to understand in that way.
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da bi ga se moglo razumjeti na taj način.
05:10
Well let me give you an example.
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Dat ću vam primjer.
05:12
Imagine for a moment
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Zamislite na trenutak da,
05:14
that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you,
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umjesto Tima Harforda, pred vama stoji
05:16
there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs.
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Hans Rosling i predstavlja svoje grafove.
05:19
You know Hans:
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Znate Hansa,
05:21
the Mick Jagger of TED.
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on je Mick Jagger TED-a.
05:23
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
05:25
And he'd be showing you these amazing statistics,
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On bi vam pokazivao zadivljujuće statistike,
05:27
these amazing animations.
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fantastične animacije.
05:29
And they are brilliant; it's wonderful work.
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Sjajne su, to je zaista divan rad.
05:31
But a typical Hans Rosling graph:
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No, tipični graf Hansa Roslinga,
05:33
think for a moment, not what it shows,
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razmislite na trenutak, ne o onome što prikazuje,
05:36
but think instead about what it leaves out.
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već o onome što izostavlja.
05:39
So it'll show you GDP per capita,
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Prikazat će vam BDP po glavi stanovnika,
05:42
population, longevity,
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populaciju, životni vijek
05:44
that's about it.
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i to je više-manje to.
05:46
So three pieces of data for each country --
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Tri podatka za svaku državu --
05:48
three pieces of data.
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tri podatka.
05:50
Three pieces of data is nothing.
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Tri podatka je ništa.
05:52
I mean, have a look at this graph.
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Mislim, pogledajte ovaj graf.
05:54
This is produced by the physicist Cesar Hidalgo.
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Izradio ga je fizičar Cesar Hidalgo.
05:56
He's at MIT.
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On radi na MIT-u.
05:58
Now you won't be able to understand a word of it,
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Nećete razumjeti baš ništa,
06:00
but this is what it looks like.
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ali tako izgleda.
06:02
Cesar has trolled the database
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Cesar je pretražio bazu podataka
06:04
of over 5,000 different products,
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s oko 5000 različitih proizvoda
06:07
and he's used techniques of network analysis
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i koristio je tehnike analize mreža
06:12
to interrogate this database
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kako bi ispitao tu bazu
06:14
and to graph relationships between the different products.
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i na grafu prikazao veze između različitih proizvoda.
06:16
And it's wonderful, wonderful work.
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To je zaista prekrasan rad.
06:18
You show all these interconnections, all these interrelations.
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Prikazujete sve ove međusobne veze, sve ove međusobne odnose.
06:21
And I think it'll be profoundly useful
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Mislim da će biti zaista koristan
06:23
in understanding how it is that economies grow.
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za razumijevanje načina na koji se gospodarstva razvijaju.
06:26
Brilliant work.
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Sjajan rad.
06:28
Cesar and I tried to write a piece for The New York Times Magazine
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Cesar i ja pokušali smo napisati članak za časopis New York Times
06:30
explaining how this works.
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u kojem bismo objasnili kako to funkcionira.
06:32
And what we learned
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Ono što smo naučili
06:34
is Cesar's work is far too good to explain
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jest da je Cesarov rad predobar da bi se objasnio
06:36
in The New York Times Magazine.
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u časopisu New York Times.
06:40
Five thousand products --
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5000 proizvoda --
06:43
that's still nothing.
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to je još uvijek ništa.
06:45
Five thousand products --
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5000 proizvoda --
06:47
imagine counting every product category
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zamislite da uključite sve kategorije proizvoda
06:49
in Cesar Hidalgo's data.
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u podatke Cesara Hidalga.
06:51
Imagine you had one second
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Zamislite da imate po jednu sekundu
06:53
per product category.
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za svaku kategoriju proizvoda.
06:55
In about the length of this session,
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Otprilike za vrijeme trajanja ovog govora
06:58
you would have counted all 5,000.
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izbrojili biste svih 5000.
07:00
Now imagine doing the same thing
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A sada zamislite da učinite isto to
07:02
for every different type of product on sale in Walmart.
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za svaki pojedini proizvod na rasprodaji u supermarketu.
07:05
There are 100,000 there. It would take you all day.
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Ima ih više od 100.000. Trebao vi vam cijeli dan.
07:08
Now imagine trying to count
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A sad zamislite da pokušate izbrojiti
07:10
every different specific product and service
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svaki pojedini proizvod i uslugu
07:13
on sale in a major economy
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na rasprodaji u nekom velikom gospodarstvu,
07:15
such as Tokyo, London or New York.
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primjerice u Tokiju, Londonu ili New Yorku.
07:17
It's even more difficult in Edinburgh
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Još je i teže u Edinburghu
07:19
because you have to count all the whisky and the tartan.
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jer morate izbrojiti sav viski i tartan.
07:22
If you wanted to count every product and service
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Kad biste željeli izbrojiti svaki proizvod i uslugu
07:24
on offer in New York --
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koji se nude u New Yorku --
07:26
there are 10 billion of them --
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ima ih 10 milijardi --
07:28
it would take you 317 years.
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trebalo bi vam 317 godina.
07:31
This is how complex the economy we've created is.
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Toliko je složeno gospodarstvo koje smo stvorili.
07:34
And I'm just counting toasters here.
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A sada samo brojim tostere.
07:36
I'm not trying to solve the Middle East problem.
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Ne pokušavam riješiti problem Bliskog istoka.
07:39
The complexity here is unbelievable.
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Složenost je nevjerojatna.
07:42
And just a piece of context --
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Samo djelić konteksta --
07:44
the societies in which our brains evolved
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društva u kojima su naši mozgovi evoluirali
07:46
had about 300 products and services.
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imala su oko 300 proizvoda i usluga.
07:48
You could count them in five minutes.
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Možete ih nabrojiti u pet minuta.
07:51
So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us.
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Takva je složenost svijeta koji nas okružuje.
07:54
This perhaps is why
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Možda nam je zbog toga
07:56
we find the God complex so tempting.
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komples boga toliko privlačan.
07:59
We tend to retreat and say, "We can draw a picture,
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Skloni smo se povući i reći: "Možemo nacrtati sliku,
08:02
we can post some graphs,
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možemo objaviti nekoliko grafova,
08:04
we get it, we understand how this works."
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shvaćamo, razumijemo kako ovo funkcionira."
08:07
And we don't.
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A nije tako.
08:09
We never do.
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Nikad ne razumijemo.
08:11
Now I'm not trying to deliver a nihilistic message here.
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Ne pokušam poslati nihilističku poruku.
08:13
I'm not trying to say we can't solve
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Ne želim reći da ne možemo riješiti
08:15
complicated problems in a complicated world.
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složene probleme u složenom svijetu.
08:17
We clearly can.
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Očito možemo.
08:19
But the way we solve them
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Ali na koji ćemo ih riješiti
08:21
is with humility --
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jest poniznošću --
08:23
to abandon the God complex
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napuštanjem kompleksa boga
08:25
and to actually use a problem-solving technique that works.
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primjenjivanjem tehnike rješavanja problema koja zaista funkcionira.
08:28
And we have a problem-solving technique that works.
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A imamo tehniku rješavanja problema koja funkcionira.
08:31
Now you show me
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Pokažite mi
08:33
a successful complex system,
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uspješan složen sustav,
08:35
and I will show you a system
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a ja ću vam pokazati sustav
08:38
that has evolved through trial and error.
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koji je nastao kroz pokušaje i pogreške.
08:40
Here's an example.
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Evo primjera.
08:42
This baby was produced through trial and error.
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Ovo dijete nastalo je metodom pokušaja i pogreške.
08:46
I realize that's an ambiguous statement.
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Shvaćam da je to dvosmislena izjava.
08:49
Maybe I should clarify it.
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Možda bih je trebao pojasniti.
08:51
This baby is a human body: it evolved.
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Ovo je dijete ljudsko tijelo: evoluiralo je.
08:54
What is evolution?
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Što je evolucija?
08:56
Over millions of years, variation and selection,
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Milijunima godina, varijacija i selekcija,
08:59
variation and selection --
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varijacija i selekcija --
09:02
trial and error,
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pokušaji i pogreške,
09:04
trial and error.
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pokušaji i pogreške.
09:07
And it's not just biological systems
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Nije tako samo s biološkim sustavima
09:09
that produce miracles through trial and error.
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koji rade čuda kroz pokušaje i pogreške.
09:11
You could use it in an industrial context.
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Možete to primijeniti i u kontekstu industrije.
09:13
So let's say you wanted to make detergent.
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Recimo da želite proizvesti deterdžent.
09:15
Let's say you're Unilever
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Recimo da ste vi Unilever
09:17
and you want to make detergent in a factory near Liverpool.
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i želite proizvesti deterdžent u tvornici pokraj Liverpoola.
09:20
How do you do it?
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Kako ćete to učiniti?
09:22
Well you have this great big tank full of liquid detergent.
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Imate veliki spremnik pun tekućeg deterdženta.
09:25
You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle.
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Pumpate ga pod visokim pritiskom kroz štrcaljku.
09:27
You create a spray of detergent.
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Nastaje deterdžent u spreju.
09:30
Then the spray dries. It turns into powder.
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Zatim se sprej osuši i pretvara se u prah.
09:32
It falls to the floor.
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Pada na pod.
09:34
You scoop it up. You put it in cardboard boxes.
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Pokupite ga i stavite u kartonske kutije.
09:36
You sell it at a supermarket.
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Prodajete ga u supermarketima.
09:38
You make lots of money.
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Zaradite mnogo novca.
09:40
How do you design that nozzle?
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Kako dizajnirati tu štrcaljku?
09:43
It turns out to be very important.
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Ispada da je to vrlo bitno.
09:46
Now if you ascribe to the God complex,
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Ako to pripišete kompleksu boga,
09:48
what you do is you find yourself a little God.
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morate pronaći "malog Boga"
09:51
You find yourself a mathematician; you find yourself a physicist --
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Pronađete matematičara ili fizičara --
09:54
somebody who understands the dynamics of this fluid.
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nekoga tko razumije dinamiku te tekućine.
09:57
And he will, or she will,
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I tada će on, ili ona,
10:00
calculate the optimal design of the nozzle.
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odrediti optimalni dizajn štrcaljke.
10:03
Now Unilever did this and it didn't work --
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Unilever je to učinio i nije funkcioniralo --
10:05
too complicated.
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bilo je previše komplicirano.
10:07
Even this problem, too complicated.
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Čak je i taj problem previše kompliciran.
10:10
But the geneticist Professor Steve Jones
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No, profesor genetike Steve Jones
10:13
describes how Unilever actually did solve this problem --
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opisuje kako je Unilever zapravo riješio ovaj problem --
10:16
trial and error,
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metodom pokušaja i pogreške,
10:18
variation and selection.
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varijacijom i selekcijom.
10:20
You take a nozzle
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Uzmete štrcaljku
10:22
and you create 10 random variations on the nozzle.
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i izradite 10 nasumičnih varijanti štrcaljke.
10:26
You try out all 10; you keep the one that works best.
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Isprobate svih 10 i zadržite onu koja radi najbolje.
10:29
You create 10 variations on that one.
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Napravite 10 varijanti te jedne.
10:31
You try out all 10. You keep the one that works best.
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Isprobate svih 10 i zadržite onu koja radi najbolje.
10:34
You try out 10 variations on that one.
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Isprobate 10 varijanti te...
10:36
You see how this works, right?
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Vidite kako to ide, zar ne?
10:38
And after 45 generations,
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Nakon 45 generacija,
10:40
you have this incredible nozzle.
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dobijete ovu nevjerojatnu štrcaljku.
10:42
It looks a bit like a chess piece --
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Pomalo naliči šahovskoj figuri --
10:44
functions absolutely brilliantly.
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funkcionira apsolutno fantastično.
10:47
We have no idea
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Nemamo pojma
10:49
why it works,
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zašto radi,
10:51
no idea at all.
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uopće nemamo pojma.
10:53
And the moment you step back from the God complex --
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Onog trenutka kad se odmaknemo od kompleksa boga --
10:55
let's just try to have a bunch of stuff;
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pokušajmo samo skupiti hrpu stvari,
10:57
let's have a systematic way of determining what's working and what's not --
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odredimo na sustavan način što radi, a što ne --
11:00
you can solve your problem.
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možete riješiti svoj problem.
11:02
Now this process of trial and error
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Taj proces pokušaja i pogreške
11:04
is actually far more common in successful institutions
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zapravo je mnogo češći u uspješnim institucijama
11:07
than we care to recognize.
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nego što smo mi to voljni primijetiti.
11:09
And we've heard a lot about how economies function.
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Čuli smo mnogo toga o načinu na koji gospodarstva funkcioniraju.
11:12
The U.S. economy is still the world's greatest economy.
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Američko gospodarstvo još je uvijek najveće na svijetu.
11:16
How did it become the world's greatest economy?
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Kako je postalo najveće gospodarstvo na svijetu?
11:19
I could give you all kinds of facts and figures
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Mogao bih vam prestaviti razne podatke
11:21
about the U.S. economy,
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o američkom gospodarstvu,
11:23
but I think the most salient one is this:
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ali mislim da je ovaj najbitniji:
11:26
ten percent of American businesses
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deset posto američkih tvrtki
11:29
disappear every year.
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nestaje svake godine.
11:32
That is a huge failure rate.
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To je velik postotak neuspjeha.
11:35
It's far higher than the failure rate of, say, Americans.
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Mnogo je veći nego, recimo, postotak neuspjeha kod Amerikanaca.
11:37
Ten percent of Americans don't disappear every year.
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Svake godine ne nestaje deset posto Amerikanaca.
11:40
Which leads us to conclude
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Iz toga možemo zaključiti
11:42
American businesses fail faster than Americans,
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da američke tvrtke propadaju brže nego Amerikanci,
11:45
and therefore American businesses are evolving faster than Americans.
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dakle američke se tvrtke razvijaju brže nego Amerikanci.
11:48
And eventually, they'll have evolved to such a high peak of perfection
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Na kraju će se razviti do takvog stupnja savršenstva
11:51
that they will make us all their pets --
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da će nas sve učiniti svojim kućnim ljubimcima --
11:54
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
11:56
if, of course, they haven't already done so.
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ako, naravno, to već nisu učinile.
11:59
I sometimes wonder.
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Ponekad se pitam.
12:02
But it's this process of trial and error
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Ali upravo taj proces pokušaja i pogrešaka
12:04
that explains this great divergence,
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objašnjava tu veliku razliku,
12:08
this incredible performance of Western economies.
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tu nevjerojatno uspješnost zapadnjačkih gospodarstava.
12:11
It didn't come because you put some incredibly smart person in charge.
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Nije do toga došlo jer je netko strašno pametan bio šef.
12:14
It's come through trial and error.
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Do toga je došlo pokušajima i pogreškama.
12:16
Now I've been sort of banging on about this
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O ovome trubim
12:18
for the last couple of months,
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posljednjih nekoliko mjeseci
12:20
and people sometimes say to me,
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i ljudi mi ponekad kažu:
12:22
"Well Tim, it's kind of obvious.
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"Pa, Time, to je prilično očito.
12:24
Obviously trial and error is very important.
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Očito je da su pokušaji i pogreške vrlo bitni.
12:26
Obviously experimentation is very important.
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Očito je da su eksperimenti vrlo bitni.
12:28
Now why are you just wandering around saying this obvious thing?"
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Zašto lunjaš uokolo i govoriš očite stvari?"
12:31
So I say, okay, fine.
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Na to kažem, OK, u redu.
12:33
You think it's obvious?
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Mislite da je to očito?
12:35
I will admit it's obvious
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Priznat ću da je očito
12:37
when schools
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kad škole
12:39
start teaching children
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počnu učiti djecu
12:42
that there are some problems that don't have a correct answer.
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da postoje problemi za koje ne postoji točn odgovor.
12:45
Stop giving them lists of questions
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Prestanite im davati popise pitanja
12:48
every single one of which has an answer.
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od kojih svako ima odgovor.
12:50
And there's an authority figure in the corner
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A osoba s pozicijom autoriteta stoji u kutu
12:52
behind the teacher's desk who knows all the answers.
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ili za učiteljskim stolom i zna sve odgovore.
12:54
And if you can't find the answers,
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A ako ne možete pronaći odgovore,
12:56
you must be lazy or stupid.
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mora da ste lijeni ili glupi.
12:58
When schools stop doing that all the time,
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Kd škole to prestanu stalno raditi,
13:00
I will admit that, yes,
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priznat ću da, da,
13:02
it's obvious that trial and error is a good thing.
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očito je da su pokušaji i pogreške dobra stvar.
13:04
When a politician stands up
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Kad političar istupi
13:07
campaigning for elected office
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u kampanji za izbore
13:09
and says, "I want to fix our health system.
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i kaže: "Želim popraviti naš zdravsteni sustav.
13:11
I want to fix our education system.
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Želim popraviti naš obrazovni sustav.
13:13
I have no idea how to do it.
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Nemam pojma kako da to učinim.
13:16
I have half a dozen ideas.
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Imam 5-6 ideja.
13:18
We're going to test them out. They'll probably all fail.
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Isprobat ćemo ih. Ni jedna vjerojatno neće uspjeti.
13:21
Then we'll test some other ideas out.
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Zatim ćemo isprobati neke druge ideje.
13:23
We'll find some that work. We'll build on those.
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Pronaći ćemo neke koje funkcioniraju. Njih ćemo razvijati.
13:25
We'll get rid of the ones that don't." --
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Riješit ćemo se loših."
13:27
when a politician campaigns on that platform,
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Kad političar bude imao takvu kampanju,
13:30
and more importantly, when voters like you and me
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i, još bitnije, kad će glasači poput vas i mene
13:33
are willing to vote for that kind of politician,
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biti voljni glasati za takvog političara,
13:35
then I will admit
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tada ću priznati
13:37
that it is obvious that trial and error works, and that -- thank you.
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da je očito da pokušaji i pogreške funkcioniraju i da -- hvala.
13:40
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
13:44
Until then, until then
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Do tada, do tada ću
13:47
I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error
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i dalje trubiti o pokušajima i pogreškama
13:49
and why we should abandon the God complex.
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i o tome zašto bismo se trebali riješiti kompleksa boga.
13:52
Because it's so hard
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Jer tako je teško
13:55
to admit our own fallibility.
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priznati vlastitu pogrešivost.
13:57
It's so uncomfortable.
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To je tako neugodno.
13:59
And Archie Cochrane understood this as well as anybody.
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Archie Cochrane je to razumio jednako dobro kao i svi.
14:02
There's this one trial he ran
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Provodio je jedan pokus
14:04
many years after World War II.
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mnogo godina nakon Drugog svetskog rata.
14:06
He wanted to test out
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Želio je istražiti
14:09
the question of, where is it
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gdje bi se
14:11
that patients should recover
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pacijenti trebali oporavljati
14:13
from heart attacks?
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od srčanih udara?
14:15
Should they recover in a specialized cardiac unit in hospital,
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Bi li se trebali oporavljati na specijaliziranom odjelu u bolnici
14:18
or should they recover at home?
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ili bi se trebali oporavljati kod kuće?
14:21
All the cardiac doctors tried to shut him down.
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Svi kardiolozi htjeli su ga ušutkati.
14:24
They had the God complex in spades.
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Bili su naoružani kompleksom boga.
14:27
They knew that their hospitals were the right place for patients,
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Znali su da su njihove bolnice pravo mjesto za pacijente
14:30
and they knew it was very unethical
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i znali su da je vrlo neetički
14:32
to run any kind of trial or experiment.
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bilo što pokušavati ili provoditi pokuse.
14:35
Nevertheless, Archie managed to get permission to do this.
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Unatoč tome, Archie je uspio dobiti dopuštenje da to učini.
14:37
He ran his trial.
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Krenuo je s tim pokusom.
14:39
And after the trial had been running for a little while,
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Nakon što je pokus trajao neko vrijeme,
14:41
he gathered together all his colleagues
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okupio je sve svoje kolege
14:43
around his table,
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oko svojeg stola
14:45
and he said, "Well, gentlemen,
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i rekao: "Pa, gospodo,
14:47
we have some preliminary results.
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dobili smo preliminarne rezultate.
14:49
They're not statistically significant.
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Nisu statistički značajni.
14:51
But we have something.
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Ali imamo nešto.
14:54
And it turns out that you're right and I'm wrong.
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Ispada da ste vi u pravu, a ja u krivu.
14:57
It is dangerous for patients
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Opasno je da se pacijenti
14:59
to recover from heart attacks at home.
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od srčanog udara oporavljaju kod kuće.
15:01
They should be in hospital."
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Trebali bi biti u bolnici."
15:04
And there's this uproar, and all the doctors start pounding the table
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Počeo je negodovanje, svi su liječnici udarali o stol
15:06
and saying, "We always said you were unethical, Archie.
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i govorili: "Oduvijek smo znali da si neetičan, Archie.
15:09
You're killing people with your clinical trials. You need to shut it down now.
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Ubijš ljude svojim kliničkim pokusima. Moraš prekinuti s time.
15:12
Shut it down at once."
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Prestani odmah."
15:14
And there's this huge hubbub.
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Nastala je velika galama.
15:16
Archie lets it die down.
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Archie ih je pustio da utihnu.
15:18
And then he says, "Well that's very interesting, gentlemen,
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Zatim je rekao: "To je vrlo zanimljivo, gospodo,
15:20
because when I gave you the table of results,
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jer kad sam vam pokazao tablicu s rezultatima,
15:23
I swapped the two columns around.
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zamijenio sam stupce.
15:27
It turns out your hospitals are killing people,
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Pokazalo se da vaše bolnice ubijaju ljude
15:29
and they should be at home.
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i da bi trebali biti kod kuće.
15:31
Would you like to close down the trial now,
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Biste li željeli da sad prekinemo s pokusom
15:34
or should we wait until we have robust results?"
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ili da pričekamo konkretnije rezultate?)
15:38
Tumbleweed
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Ni muha se nije čula
15:40
rolls through the meeting room.
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u toj sobi za sastanke.
15:43
But Cochrane would do that kind of thing.
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Ali Cochraneu je i slično da učini nešto takvo.
15:46
And the reason he would do that kind of thing
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A razlog zašto je to učinio
15:48
is because he understood
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jest taj da je razumio
15:50
it feels so much better
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da je mnogo bolji osjećaj
15:52
to stand there and say,
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stajati ondje i reći:
15:54
"Here in my own little world,
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"Ovdje, u mojem malom svijetu,
15:56
I am a god, I understand everything.
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ja sam bog, ja razumijem sve.
15:58
I do not want to have my opinions challenged.
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Ne želim da se moje mišljenje dovodi u pitanje.
16:00
I do not want to have my conclusions tested."
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Ne želim da se moji zaključci preispituju."
16:03
It feels so much more comfortable
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Osjećam se mnogo ugodnije
16:05
simply to lay down the law.
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kad jednostavno odredim pravila.
16:08
Cochrane understood
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Cochrane je razumio
16:10
that uncertainty, that fallibility,
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da nesigurnost, pogrešivost,
16:12
that being challenged, they hurt.
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dovođenje u pitanje -- to boli.
16:14
And you sometimes need to be shocked out of that.
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Ponekad je potreban šok da se toga riješite.
16:18
Now I'm not going to pretend that this is easy.
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Neću vam reći da je to lako.
16:21
It isn't easy.
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Nije lako.
16:23
It's incredibly painful.
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To je nevjerojatno bolno.
16:25
And since I started talking about this subject
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Otkad sam počeo govoriti o ovoj temi
16:27
and researching this subject,
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i istraživati je,
16:29
I've been really haunted by something
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progoni me nešto
16:31
a Japanese mathematician said on the subject.
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što je jedan japanski matematičar rekao o tome.
16:33
So shortly after the war,
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Ubrzo nakon rata,
16:35
this young man, Yutaka Taniyama,
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taj mladi čovjek, Yutaka Taniyama,
16:38
developed this amazing conjecture
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razvio je izvanrednu pretpostavku,
16:40
called the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture.
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Taniyama-Shimurinu pretpostavku.
16:42
It turned out to be absolutely instrumental
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Ispalo je da je apsolutno nužna
16:45
many decades later
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mnogo desetljeća kasnije
16:47
in proving Fermat's Last Theorem.
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za dokazivanje Fermatovog Posljednjeg teorema.
16:49
In fact, it turns out it's equivalent
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Zapravo, pokazalo se da je ekvivalentan
16:51
to proving Fermat's Last Theorem.
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dokazivanju Fermatovog posljednjeg teorema.
16:53
You prove one, you prove the other.
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Ako dokažete jedno, dokazali ste i drugo.
16:57
But it was always a conjecture.
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Ali to je uvijek bila pretpostavka.
17:00
Taniyama tried and tried and tried
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Taniyama je pokušavao i pokušavao
17:03
and he could never prove that it was true.
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i nikad nije mogao dokazati da je istinita.
17:06
And shortly before his 30th birthday in 1958,
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Ubrzo nkon njegovog 30. rođendana 1958. godine,
17:09
Yutaka Taniyama killed himself.
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Yutaka Taniyama počinio je samoubojstvo.
17:13
His friend, Goro Shimura --
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Njegov prijatelj, Goro Shimura --
17:15
who worked on the mathematics with him --
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koji je s njim radio na toj matematici --
17:17
many decades later, reflected on Taniyama's life.
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mnogo desetljeća kasnije, razmišljao je o Taniyaminom životu.
17:22
He said,
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Rekao je:
17:25
"He was not a very careful person
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"Nije bio baš oprezna osoba
17:27
as a mathematician.
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kao matematičar.
17:29
He made a lot of mistakes.
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Činio je mnogo pogrešaka.
17:32
But he made mistakes in a good direction.
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Ali činio je pogreške u dobrom smjeru.
17:36
I tried to emulate him,
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Pokušavao sam ga kopirati,
17:39
but I realized
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ali shvatio sam
17:41
it is very difficult
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da je vrlo teško
17:43
to make good mistakes."
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činiti dobre pogreške."
17:46
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
17:48
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tim Harford - Economist, journalist, broadcasterTim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences.
Why you should listen
In the Undercover Economist column he writes for the Financial Times, Tim Harford looks at familiar situations in unfamiliar ways and explains the fundamental principles of the modern economy. He illuminates them with clear writing and a variety of examples borrowed from daily life.
His book, Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure, argues that the world has become far too unpredictable and complex for today's challenges to be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions. Instead, Harford suggests, we need to learn to embrace failure and to constantly adapt, to improvise rather than plan, to work from the bottom up rather than the top down. His next book, Messy: Thriving in a Tidy-Minded World will be published in September 2016.
Harford also presents the BBC radio series More or Less, a rare broadcast program devoted, as he says, to "the powerful, sometimes beautiful, often abused but ever ubiquitous world of numbers."
He says: "I’d like to see many more complex problems approached with a willingness to experiment."
Tim Harford | Speaker | TED.com