TEDGlobal 2011
Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex
提姆·哈福德: 试验，排除错误和万能神力
Filmed:
Readability: 4.3
2,044,503 views
经济作家提姆·哈福德研究复杂的系统，他在成功的事例中发现了意想不到的链接：它们都经历了试验和不断排除错误的过程。 在这个精彩的TEDGlobal 2011 演讲中，他呼吁我们接纳随机性并开始学会犯些有益的错误。
Tim Harford - Economist, journalist, broadcaster
Tim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences. Full bio
Tim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
It's the Second World War.
0
0
2000
这是二战期间，
00:17
A German prison camp.
1
2000
3000
一个德国集中营，
00:20
And this man,
2
5000
3000
这个人，
00:23
Archie Cochrane,
3
8000
3000
阿奇·卡克伦，
00:26
is a prisoner of war and a doctor,
4
11000
3000
是战俘也是一名医生，
00:29
and he has a problem.
5
14000
3000
他遇到了一个问题，
00:32
The problem is that the men under his care
6
17000
3000
这个问题是他看护的人们
00:35
are suffering
7
20000
2000
正在承受
00:37
from an excruciating and debilitating condition
8
22000
3000
病痛和衰弱的煎熬。
00:40
that Archie doesn't really understand.
9
25000
3000
阿奇不明白是怎么回事。
00:43
The symptoms
10
28000
2000
这种症状是
00:45
are this horrible swelling up of fluids under the skin.
11
30000
3000
皮肤下面有可怕水肿。
00:48
But he doesn't know whether it's an infection, whether it's to do with malnutrition.
12
33000
3000
他不知道这是一种感染，还是营养不良造成的。
00:51
He doesn't know how to cure it.
13
36000
2000
他不知道怎样提供治疗。
00:53
And he's operating in a hostile environment.
14
38000
3000
他是在一个充满敌意的环境里工作。
00:56
And people do terrible things in wars.
15
41000
2000
而人们常常在战争期间做可怕的事情。
00:58
The German camp guards, they've got bored.
16
43000
3000
德国集中营的守卫无聊的时候。
01:01
They've taken to just firing into the prison camp at random
17
46000
2000
他们会对着集中营随意扫射
01:03
for fun.
18
48000
2000
来寻开心。
01:05
On one particular occasion,
19
50000
2000
特别是有一次，
01:07
one of the guards threw a grenade into the prisoners' lavatory
20
52000
3000
一个守卫朝犯人的厕所里扔了枚手榴弹，
01:10
while it was full of prisoners.
21
55000
3000
里面满是犯人。
01:13
He said he heard suspicious laughter.
22
58000
2000
他说他听到了可疑的笑声。
01:15
And Archie Cochrane, as the camp doctor,
23
60000
3000
而阿奇·卡克伦，作为集中营的医生，
01:18
was one of the first men in
24
63000
2000
是第一个进去
01:20
to clear up the mess.
25
65000
2000
处理惨状的人。
01:22
And one more thing:
26
67000
2000
另外，
01:24
Archie was suffering from this illness himself.
27
69000
3000
阿奇自己也受着这个疾病的困扰，
01:27
So the situation seemed pretty desperate.
28
72000
3000
所以情况是非常危急。
01:30
But Archie Cochrane
29
75000
2000
但是阿奇·卡克伦
01:32
was a resourceful person.
30
77000
3000
是一个足智多谋的人。
01:35
He'd already smuggled vitamin C into the camp,
31
80000
3000
他已经将维生素C带到了集中营，
01:38
and now he managed
32
83000
2000
现在他又想办法
01:40
to get hold of supplies of marmite
33
85000
2000
从黑市上弄到了
01:42
on the black market.
34
87000
2000
一些马麦。
01:44
Now some of you will be wondering what marmite is.
35
89000
3000
你们中的一些人也许会问马麦是什么，
01:47
Marmite is a breakfast spread beloved of the British.
36
92000
3000
马麦英国人热爱的早餐面包酱，
01:50
It looks like crude oil.
37
95000
2000
它看上去象天然油。
01:52
It tastes ...
38
97000
2000
味道
01:54
zesty.
39
99000
2000
很浓
01:56
And importantly,
40
101000
2000
更重要的是，
01:58
it's a rich source
41
103000
2000
它含有丰富的
02:00
of vitamin B12.
42
105000
2000
维他命B12。
02:02
So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can
43
107000
3000
所以阿奇就把他的病人平分
02:05
into two equal groups.
44
110000
2000
成两组人。
02:07
He gives half of them vitamin C.
45
112000
2000
他给其中的一半维他命C。
02:09
He gives half of them vitamin B12.
46
114000
3000
他给另一半维他命B12。
02:12
He very carefully and meticulously notes his results
47
117000
3000
他非常小心谨慎把他的结果
02:15
in an exercise book.
48
120000
2000
记录在一个练习簿上。
02:17
And after just a few days,
49
122000
2000
几天以后
02:19
it becomes clear
50
124000
2000
结果显然表明
02:21
that whatever is causing this illness,
51
126000
3000
不管是病因是什么
02:24
marmite is the cure.
52
129000
3000
马麦能帮助治愈这个病。
02:27
So Cochrane then goes to the Germans who are running the prison camp.
53
132000
3000
所以卡克伦跑去跟管理集中营的德国人说。
02:30
Now you've got to imagine at the moment --
54
135000
2000
你想象一下那一刻，
02:32
forget this photo, imagine this guy
55
137000
2000
别看这张照片， 你想象一下这个家伙
02:34
with this long ginger beard and this shock of red hair.
56
139000
3000
一下巴淡黄色大胡子，一头刺眼的红发
02:37
He hasn't been able to shave -- a sort of Billy Connolly figure.
57
142000
3000
他好久没有修面，有点象比利·康诺利那个样子
02:40
Cochrane, he starts ranting at these Germans
58
145000
2000
卡克伦开始数落那些德国人，
02:42
in this Scottish accent --
59
147000
2000
带着苏格兰口音，
02:44
in fluent German, by the way, but in a Scottish accent --
60
149000
3000
其实他讲着一口流利的德语，只是带点苏格兰口音
02:47
and explains to them how German culture was the culture
61
152000
3000
他对他们说他无法理解
02:50
that gave Schiller and Goethe to the world.
62
155000
2000
能够为世界带来席勒和歌德的
02:52
And he can't understand
63
157000
2000
德国文化怎么可以容忍
02:54
how this barbarism can be tolerated,
64
159000
2000
如此的野蛮。
02:56
and he vents his frustrations.
65
161000
3000
他发了一通牢骚
02:59
And then he goes back to his quarters,
66
164000
3000
然后就回到了他的住处，
03:02
breaks down and weeps
67
167000
3000
倒头哭泣
03:05
because he's convinced that the situation is hopeless.
68
170000
3000
因为他认为这个状况无可救药。
03:10
But a young German doctor
69
175000
3000
但是另一个年轻的德国医生
03:13
picks up Archie Cochrane's exercise book
70
178000
3000
拿起了阿奇·卡克伦的练习簿
03:16
and says to his colleagues,
71
181000
4000
对他的同僚说
03:20
"This evidence is incontrovertible.
72
185000
5000
"这个证据是不用质疑的
03:25
If we don't supply vitamins to the prisoners,
73
190000
3000
“如果我们不给犯人提供维生素
03:28
it's a war crime."
74
193000
2000
这是战争犯罪”。
03:30
And the next morning,
75
195000
2000
第二天早上，
03:32
supplies of vitamin B12 are delivered to the camp,
76
197000
3000
含维他命B12的物资被送到了集中营，
03:35
and the prisoners begin to recover.
77
200000
3000
犯人开始恢复。
03:39
Now I'm not telling you this story
78
204000
2000
我现在跟你们讲这个故事，
03:41
because I think Archie Cochrane is a dude,
79
206000
2000
不是因为我认为阿奇·卡克伦是个人物，
03:43
although Archie Cochrane is a dude.
80
208000
4000
虽然阿奇·卡克伦本来就是个人物。
03:47
I'm not even telling you the story
81
212000
2000
我跟你说这个故事也不是
03:49
because I think we should be running
82
214000
2000
因为我认为我们应该更小心地
03:51
more carefully controlled randomized trials
83
216000
2000
随机抽样试验。
03:53
in all aspects of public policy,
84
218000
2000
在公共政策的各个方面
03:55
although I think that would also be completely awesome.
85
220000
4000
虽然我觉得这样做完全会很好。
03:59
I'm telling you this story
86
224000
2000
我告诉你这个故事
04:01
because Archie Cochrane, all his life,
87
226000
3000
是因为阿奇·卡克伦的一生，
04:04
fought against a terrible affliction,
88
229000
4000
都在与一种可怕的痛苦做斗争。
04:08
and he realized it was debilitating to individuals
89
233000
4000
而且他认识到这是一种削弱个人
04:12
and it was corrosive to societies.
90
237000
2000
和腐蚀社会的东西。
04:14
And he had a name for it.
91
239000
2000
他为它取了个名字，
04:16
He called it the God complex.
92
241000
3000
他把它称为：万能神力（自以为有能力解决复杂问题的本事）
04:19
Now I can describe the symptoms of the God complex very, very easily.
93
244000
4000
现在我可以来描述万能神力的症状
04:23
So the symptoms of the complex
94
248000
3000
它的症状是：
04:26
are, no matter how complicated the problem,
95
251000
3000
无论问题多么复杂
04:29
you have an absolutely overwhelming belief
96
254000
3000
你还是绝对彻底相信
04:32
that you are infallibly right in your solution.
97
257000
4000
你的解决方案是准确无误的
04:36
Now Archie was a doctor,
98
261000
2000
阿奇是个医生
04:38
so he hung around with doctors a lot.
99
263000
2000
他一直和医生们在一起
04:40
And doctors suffer from the God complex a lot.
100
265000
3000
医生就常常患有这种毛病
04:43
Now I'm an economist, I'm not a doctor,
101
268000
2000
我是个经济学家， 我不是医生
04:45
but I see the God complex around me all the time
102
270000
2000
我在我周围也一直看到这种“万能神力”的症状
04:47
in my fellow economists.
103
272000
2000
出现在我的经济学家伙伴中
04:49
I see it in our business leaders.
104
274000
2000
我看见它存在于我们的商业领袖身上
04:51
I see it in the politicians we vote for --
105
276000
2000
我们看见它存在于我们推选的政客身上。
04:53
people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world,
106
278000
4000
这些人面对这及其复杂的世界
04:57
are nevertheless absolutely convinced
107
282000
3000
仍然绝对坚信
05:00
that they understand the way that the world works.
108
285000
3000
他们知道这个世界是怎样运作的
05:03
And you know, with the future billions that we've been hearing about,
109
288000
3000
而你们知道，我们在这里听到的未来的数十亿人的种种
05:06
the world is simply far too complex
110
291000
2000
用那种方法来理解这个复杂
05:08
to understand in that way.
111
293000
2000
的世界显然是太简单化了
05:10
Well let me give you an example.
112
295000
2000
让我来给你们一个例子
05:12
Imagine for a moment
113
297000
2000
你们想象一下
05:14
that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you,
114
299000
2000
现在如果站在你们面前的不是我
05:16
there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs.
115
301000
3000
而是汉斯·罗斯林在展示他的图表
05:19
You know Hans:
116
304000
2000
你们知道汉斯：
05:21
the Mick Jagger of TED.
117
306000
2000
TED的米克·贾格尔
05:23
(Laughter)
118
308000
2000
（笑声）
05:25
And he'd be showing you these amazing statistics,
119
310000
2000
他给你们展示了这些神奇的数据
05:27
these amazing animations.
120
312000
2000
神奇的动画
05:29
And they are brilliant; it's wonderful work.
121
314000
2000
它们很出色，很棒的研究结果
05:31
But a typical Hans Rosling graph:
122
316000
2000
但是汉斯的图表：
05:33
think for a moment, not what it shows,
123
318000
3000
想一下，不是那些已经展示的
05:36
but think instead about what it leaves out.
124
321000
3000
而是想一下那些没有被展示的。
05:39
So it'll show you GDP per capita,
125
324000
3000
是，里面包括了人均国内生产总值
05:42
population, longevity,
126
327000
2000
人口，寿命
05:44
that's about it.
127
329000
2000
就这些
05:46
So three pieces of data for each country --
128
331000
2000
每个国家三个数据
05:48
three pieces of data.
129
333000
2000
三个数据
05:50
Three pieces of data is nothing.
130
335000
2000
三个数据什么都不是
05:52
I mean, have a look at this graph.
131
337000
2000
我是说，请看一下这张图
05:54
This is produced by the physicist Cesar Hidalgo.
132
339000
2000
这张图是物理学家塞萨尔·伊达尔戈制作的
05:56
He's at MIT.
133
341000
2000
他在麻省理工工作
05:58
Now you won't be able to understand a word of it,
134
343000
2000
你一个字也不懂
06:00
but this is what it looks like.
135
345000
2000
但是它看上去是这个样子的
06:02
Cesar has trolled the database
136
347000
2000
塞萨尔用数据库搜索
06:04
of over 5,000 different products,
137
349000
3000
5000个不同的产品，
06:07
and he's used techniques of network analysis
138
352000
5000
他用网络分析的技术
06:12
to interrogate this database
139
357000
2000
提取分析数据
06:14
and to graph relationships between the different products.
140
359000
2000
并用图表来表示不同产品间的关系
06:16
And it's wonderful, wonderful work.
141
361000
2000
那是非常非常好的工作
06:18
You show all these interconnections, all these interrelations.
142
363000
3000
展示了所有这些互相的关系和链接
06:21
And I think it'll be profoundly useful
143
366000
2000
我想这些对理解经济怎样增长
06:23
in understanding how it is that economies grow.
144
368000
3000
是极其有用的
06:26
Brilliant work.
145
371000
2000
是杰作
06:28
Cesar and I tried to write a piece for The New York Times Magazine
146
373000
2000
塞萨尔和我试着想要给纽约时代杂志
06:30
explaining how this works.
147
375000
2000
写一篇稿子描述这个工作
06:32
And what we learned
148
377000
2000
我们发现
06:34
is Cesar's work is far too good to explain
149
379000
2000
塞萨尔的研究成果远不是一篇
06:36
in The New York Times Magazine.
150
381000
2000
纽约时代杂志的文章可以描述得清楚的
06:40
Five thousand products --
151
385000
3000
5000个产品
06:43
that's still nothing.
152
388000
2000
这还没什么
06:45
Five thousand products --
153
390000
2000
5000个产品
06:47
imagine counting every product category
154
392000
2000
想象我们来数塞萨尔·伊达尔戈数据
06:49
in Cesar Hidalgo's data.
155
394000
2000
中的每个产品的目录
06:51
Imagine you had one second
156
396000
2000
想象你每一秒钟
06:53
per product category.
157
398000
2000
听到一个产品种类的名字
06:55
In about the length of this session,
158
400000
3000
大约用这段会议的时间
06:58
you would have counted all 5,000.
159
403000
2000
你可以数完5000个产品
07:00
Now imagine doing the same thing
160
405000
2000
现在你再想象去数各种
07:02
for every different type of product on sale in Walmart.
161
407000
3000
不同的在沃尔玛销售的产品
07:05
There are 100,000 there. It would take you all day.
162
410000
3000
那有10万种， 那大概需要一天才能数完
07:08
Now imagine trying to count
163
413000
2000
现在你想象去数
07:10
every different specific product and service
164
415000
3000
在主要经济体中销售的
07:13
on sale in a major economy
165
418000
2000
每种不同的特殊产品和服务
07:15
such as Tokyo, London or New York.
166
420000
2000
比如，东京， 伦敦，或者纽约
07:17
It's even more difficult in Edinburgh
167
422000
2000
在爱丁堡就更难了
07:19
because you have to count all the whisky and the tartan.
168
424000
3000
因为你得数所有的威士忌和格子呢绒
07:22
If you wanted to count every product and service
169
427000
2000
如果你要数在纽约提供的
07:24
on offer in New York --
170
429000
2000
产品和服务
07:26
there are 10 billion of them --
171
431000
2000
那就有100亿种
07:28
it would take you 317 years.
172
433000
3000
你得数317年
07:31
This is how complex the economy we've created is.
173
436000
3000
这就是我们创造的复杂的经济体
07:34
And I'm just counting toasters here.
174
439000
2000
而我这只是在这里数烤面包机而已
07:36
I'm not trying to solve the Middle East problem.
175
441000
2000
我没想去解决中东问题
07:39
The complexity here is unbelievable.
176
444000
3000
所以问题的复杂性是不可思议的
07:42
And just a piece of context --
177
447000
2000
我再提供一个背景数据
07:44
the societies in which our brains evolved
178
449000
2000
我们大脑演变的社会
07:46
had about 300 products and services.
179
451000
2000
具有300多种产品和服务
07:48
You could count them in five minutes.
180
453000
3000
你可以在5分钟里数完他们
07:51
So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us.
181
456000
3000
所以这就是我们所处的环境的复杂性
07:54
This perhaps is why
182
459000
2000
这也许也是为什么
07:56
we find the God complex so tempting.
183
461000
3000
我们发现“万能神力”很有吸引力
07:59
We tend to retreat and say, "We can draw a picture,
184
464000
3000
我们喜欢退一步说：“我们可以来画一个图，
08:02
we can post some graphs,
185
467000
2000
我们可以贴一些图表，
08:04
we get it, we understand how this works."
186
469000
3000
我们知道这是怎么运作的。”
08:07
And we don't.
187
472000
2000
但是我们不知道
08:09
We never do.
188
474000
2000
我们从来都不知道。
08:11
Now I'm not trying to deliver a nihilistic message here.
189
476000
2000
我不是要在这里传递一个虚无主义的信息
08:13
I'm not trying to say we can't solve
190
478000
2000
我不是想说我们不能在
08:15
complicated problems in a complicated world.
191
480000
2000
复杂的世界里解决复杂的问题
08:17
We clearly can.
192
482000
2000
我们显然是可以的
08:19
But the way we solve them
193
484000
2000
但是我们需要用一种
08:21
is with humility --
194
486000
2000
谦逊的态度来解决问题
08:23
to abandon the God complex
195
488000
2000
要抛弃“万能神力”的态度
08:25
and to actually use a problem-solving technique that works.
196
490000
3000
而是用一个实际可行的解决问题的手法。
08:28
And we have a problem-solving technique that works.
197
493000
3000
我们有一个实际可行的解决问题的手法
08:31
Now you show me
198
496000
2000
你给我举一个
08:33
a successful complex system,
199
498000
2000
成功的复杂系统
08:35
and I will show you a system
200
500000
3000
我就能显示给你看
08:38
that has evolved through trial and error.
201
503000
2000
这个系统是如何在试验和排除错误中不断演进的。
08:40
Here's an example.
202
505000
2000
这里有一个例子
08:42
This baby was produced through trial and error.
203
507000
3000
这个孩子是通过试验和排除错误而产生的
08:46
I realize that's an ambiguous statement.
204
511000
3000
我知道这是一个模糊的说法
08:49
Maybe I should clarify it.
205
514000
2000
也许我应该澄清
08:51
This baby is a human body: it evolved.
206
516000
3000
这个孩子是人类的身体：它进化了。
08:54
What is evolution?
207
519000
2000
什么是进化？
08:56
Over millions of years, variation and selection,
208
521000
3000
经历了几百万年的变种和选择
08:59
variation and selection --
209
524000
3000
变种和选择
09:02
trial and error,
210
527000
2000
试验和排除错误
09:04
trial and error.
211
529000
3000
试验和排除错误
09:07
And it's not just biological systems
212
532000
2000
这不只是生物系统
09:09
that produce miracles through trial and error.
213
534000
2000
在试验和排除错误中缔造神奇
09:11
You could use it in an industrial context.
214
536000
2000
你可以把它用于产业环境中
09:13
So let's say you wanted to make detergent.
215
538000
2000
比如你要生产清洁剂
09:15
Let's say you're Unilever
216
540000
2000
你是联合利华
09:17
and you want to make detergent in a factory near Liverpool.
217
542000
3000
你要在利物浦旁边的一家工厂生产清洁剂
09:20
How do you do it?
218
545000
2000
你怎么做呢？
09:22
Well you have this great big tank full of liquid detergent.
219
547000
3000
你有这么一大池子的液体清洁剂
09:25
You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle.
220
550000
2000
你用高压将它压过一个喷嘴
09:27
You create a spray of detergent.
221
552000
3000
你制造了清洁剂喷雾
09:30
Then the spray dries. It turns into powder.
222
555000
2000
喷雾干燥后就成了粉末
09:32
It falls to the floor.
223
557000
2000
掉在地板上，
09:34
You scoop it up. You put it in cardboard boxes.
224
559000
2000
你将它铲起，放入一个纸板盒子里。
09:36
You sell it at a supermarket.
225
561000
2000
你到超市去卖，
09:38
You make lots of money.
226
563000
2000
你可以赚好多钱。
09:40
How do you design that nozzle?
227
565000
3000
你怎么设计喷嘴
09:43
It turns out to be very important.
228
568000
3000
结果这个很重要
09:46
Now if you ascribe to the God complex,
229
571000
2000
如果你倾向于用万能神力来解决这个问题
09:48
what you do is you find yourself a little God.
230
573000
3000
你会觉得自己是个小上帝
09:51
You find yourself a mathematician; you find yourself a physicist --
231
576000
3000
你会发现自己是个数学家，物理学家
09:54
somebody who understands the dynamics of this fluid.
232
579000
3000
是一个懂得液体动态的专家
09:57
And he will, or she will,
233
582000
3000
他或者她会
10:00
calculate the optimal design of the nozzle.
234
585000
3000
计算管口的最佳设计方案
10:03
Now Unilever did this and it didn't work --
235
588000
2000
联合利华这么做了，但是失败了
10:05
too complicated.
236
590000
2000
太复杂了
10:07
Even this problem, too complicated.
237
592000
3000
即使是这样的问题，也太复杂了
10:10
But the geneticist Professor Steve Jones
238
595000
3000
但是遗传学家史蒂文琼斯教授
10:13
describes how Unilever actually did solve this problem --
239
598000
3000
讲述了联合利华其实是怎样解决这个问题的
10:16
trial and error,
240
601000
2000
试验和失败
10:18
variation and selection.
241
603000
2000
改变和选择
10:20
You take a nozzle
242
605000
2000
你拿一个管口
10:22
and you create 10 random variations on the nozzle.
243
607000
4000
你随机地做出10个不同的管口
10:26
You try out all 10; you keep the one that works best.
244
611000
3000
你测试这10个管口，你把最好的那个保留下来
10:29
You create 10 variations on that one.
245
614000
2000
你再拿这个做基础再做10个不同的管口
10:31
You try out all 10. You keep the one that works best.
246
616000
3000
你测试这10个，你把最好的保留下来
10:34
You try out 10 variations on that one.
247
619000
2000
你再这个基础上测试10个
10:36
You see how this works, right?
248
621000
2000
你知道这是怎么做出来的了吧？
10:38
And after 45 generations,
249
623000
2000
经过45轮测试后
10:40
you have this incredible nozzle.
250
625000
2000
你们就得到了这个很好的喷嘴管口
10:42
It looks a bit like a chess piece --
251
627000
2000
这个看上去有点象国际象棋棋子
10:44
functions absolutely brilliantly.
252
629000
3000
工作起来绝对高效
10:47
We have no idea
253
632000
2000
我们不知道
10:49
why it works,
254
634000
2000
为什么它那么高效
10:51
no idea at all.
255
636000
2000
根本不知道
10:53
And the moment you step back from the God complex --
256
638000
2000
当你不再认为自己有万能神力
10:55
let's just try to have a bunch of stuff;
257
640000
2000
而是开始尝试一些东西
10:57
let's have a systematic way of determining what's working and what's not --
258
642000
3000
用一个系统的办法来决定什么办法行什么办法不行
11:00
you can solve your problem.
259
645000
2000
你就能解决你的问题
11:02
Now this process of trial and error
260
647000
2000
这个过程就是试验和排除错误的过程
11:04
is actually far more common in successful institutions
261
649000
3000
事实上这是成功机构的一个很大的共性
11:07
than we care to recognize.
262
652000
2000
只是我们认识得很不够
11:09
And we've heard a lot about how economies function.
263
654000
3000
我们听过很多经济是如何运作的言论
11:12
The U.S. economy is still the world's greatest economy.
264
657000
4000
美国的经济仍然是世界上最好的经济体
11:16
How did it become the world's greatest economy?
265
661000
3000
它怎么变成世界上最好的经济体的呢？
11:19
I could give you all kinds of facts and figures
266
664000
2000
我可以给你很多事实和数字
11:21
about the U.S. economy,
267
666000
2000
关于美国经济的
11:23
but I think the most salient one is this:
268
668000
3000
但是我想最突出的是这点：
11:26
ten percent of American businesses
269
671000
3000
每年10%的美国企业
11:29
disappear every year.
270
674000
3000
会消失
11:32
That is a huge failure rate.
271
677000
3000
这是很高的失败率
11:35
It's far higher than the failure rate of, say, Americans.
272
680000
2000
这个失败率比美国人的失败率要高
11:37
Ten percent of Americans don't disappear every year.
273
682000
3000
美国人并没有以10%的比率每年消失
11:40
Which leads us to conclude
274
685000
2000
所以我们可以总结说
11:42
American businesses fail faster than Americans,
275
687000
3000
美国企业比美国人消失得更快
11:45
and therefore American businesses are evolving faster than Americans.
276
690000
3000
因此美国企业比美国人进化得要快
11:48
And eventually, they'll have evolved to such a high peak of perfection
277
693000
3000
而最终， 他们进化到了完美的顶端
11:51
that they will make us all their pets --
278
696000
3000
他们会把我们都变成他们的宠物
11:54
(Laughter)
279
699000
2000
（笑声）
11:56
if, of course, they haven't already done so.
280
701000
3000
如果，他们还没有这么做的话
11:59
I sometimes wonder.
281
704000
3000
我有时会想
12:02
But it's this process of trial and error
282
707000
2000
但是试验和排除错误的过程
12:04
that explains this great divergence,
283
709000
4000
解释了这巨大的差异
12:08
this incredible performance of Western economies.
284
713000
3000
西方经济的出色的表现。
12:11
It didn't come because you put some incredibly smart person in charge.
285
716000
3000
它的发生不是因为你让一些特别聪明的人掌管了一切
12:14
It's come through trial and error.
286
719000
2000
它是从试试验和排除错误中得来的
12:16
Now I've been sort of banging on about this
287
721000
2000
在过去的几个月里， 我反复
12:18
for the last couple of months,
288
723000
2000
在讨论这个问题
12:20
and people sometimes say to me,
289
725000
2000
有人有时跟我说
12:22
"Well Tim, it's kind of obvious.
290
727000
2000
“提姆，这不是很显然么
12:24
Obviously trial and error is very important.
291
729000
2000
很显然试验和排除错误很重要
12:26
Obviously experimentation is very important.
292
731000
2000
很显然尝试很重要
12:28
Now why are you just wandering around saying this obvious thing?"
293
733000
3000
你为什么到处讲这个显然的事情呢？”
12:31
So I say, okay, fine.
294
736000
2000
所以我说，好啊
12:33
You think it's obvious?
295
738000
2000
你认为这个很显然是吗？
12:35
I will admit it's obvious
296
740000
2000
我也会承认这个很显然
12:37
when schools
297
742000
2000
当学校
12:39
start teaching children
298
744000
3000
开始告诉孩子们
12:42
that there are some problems that don't have a correct answer.
299
747000
3000
有时问题不总是有正确答案的时候
12:45
Stop giving them lists of questions
300
750000
3000
不再给他们一系列问题
12:48
every single one of which has an answer.
301
753000
2000
每个问题都有一个答案
12:50
And there's an authority figure in the corner
302
755000
2000
而老师的桌子背后的角落里总是站着
12:52
behind the teacher's desk who knows all the answers.
303
757000
2000
一个知道所有答案的权威
12:54
And if you can't find the answers,
304
759000
2000
如果你找不到答案
12:56
you must be lazy or stupid.
305
761000
2000
你不是懒惰就是愚蠢
12:58
When schools stop doing that all the time,
306
763000
2000
当学习停止这么做时
13:00
I will admit that, yes,
307
765000
2000
我愿意承认
13:02
it's obvious that trial and error is a good thing.
308
767000
2000
试验和排除错误显然是好事
13:04
When a politician stands up
309
769000
3000
当政客们站出来
13:07
campaigning for elected office
310
772000
2000
竞选公职时
13:09
and says, "I want to fix our health system.
311
774000
2000
他们说：“我想治理我们的健康系统
13:11
I want to fix our education system.
312
776000
2000
我想治理我们的教育体系
13:13
I have no idea how to do it.
313
778000
3000
我还不知道怎么做
13:16
I have half a dozen ideas.
314
781000
2000
但是我又很多想法
13:18
We're going to test them out. They'll probably all fail.
315
783000
3000
我们会测试这些想法， 我们可能失败
13:21
Then we'll test some other ideas out.
316
786000
2000
然后我们会再测试其他想法
13:23
We'll find some that work. We'll build on those.
317
788000
2000
我们会发现有些有效的办法，然后在那个基础上继续建设
13:25
We'll get rid of the ones that don't." --
318
790000
2000
我们会抛弃那些无效的做法。“
13:27
when a politician campaigns on that platform,
319
792000
3000
当政治家在那样的平台上竞选
13:30
and more importantly, when voters like you and me
320
795000
3000
更重要的是，象你我这样的选举人
13:33
are willing to vote for that kind of politician,
321
798000
2000
愿意投票给这样的政治家
13:35
then I will admit
322
800000
2000
那我就承认
13:37
that it is obvious that trial and error works, and that -- thank you.
323
802000
3000
测试和排除错误显然是有效的，而那时， 我会对你们说：谢谢
13:40
(Applause)
324
805000
4000
（掌声）
13:44
Until then, until then
325
809000
3000
直到那个时候， 直到那个时候
13:47
I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error
326
812000
2000
我会继续讨论测试和排除错误这个话题
13:49
and why we should abandon the God complex.
327
814000
3000
和为什么我们需要抛弃“万能神力”态度
13:52
Because it's so hard
328
817000
3000
因为我们很难
13:55
to admit our own fallibility.
329
820000
2000
我们自己是很容易犯错的
13:57
It's so uncomfortable.
330
822000
2000
这令人感到很不舒服
13:59
And Archie Cochrane understood this as well as anybody.
331
824000
3000
阿奇·卡克伦和其他人一样理解这一点
14:02
There's this one trial he ran
332
827000
2000
这是他做的一个试验
14:04
many years after World War II.
333
829000
2000
那时在二战很多年后
14:06
He wanted to test out
334
831000
3000
他想要测试出
14:09
the question of, where is it
335
834000
2000
病人心脏病发作后
14:11
that patients should recover
336
836000
2000
应该在哪里
14:13
from heart attacks?
337
838000
2000
康复
14:15
Should they recover in a specialized cardiac unit in hospital,
338
840000
3000
他们是应该在医院的心脏科康复
14:18
or should they recover at home?
339
843000
3000
还是在家康复
14:21
All the cardiac doctors tried to shut him down.
340
846000
3000
所有心脏科医生都想要把他挡在门外
14:24
They had the God complex in spades.
341
849000
3000
他们完全摆出拥有万能的神力的样子
14:27
They knew that their hospitals were the right place for patients,
342
852000
3000
他们知道医院才是病人康复的地方
14:30
and they knew it was very unethical
343
855000
2000
他们觉得做任何试验都是
14:32
to run any kind of trial or experiment.
344
857000
3000
不道德的
14:35
Nevertheless, Archie managed to get permission to do this.
345
860000
2000
无论如何，阿奇得到了试验的许可
14:37
He ran his trial.
346
862000
2000
他进行了试验
14:39
And after the trial had been running for a little while,
347
864000
2000
试验进行了一阵后
14:41
he gathered together all his colleagues
348
866000
2000
他把他所有的同事召集起来
14:43
around his table,
349
868000
2000
在他的桌子旁，
14:45
and he said, "Well, gentlemen,
350
870000
2000
他说：“先生们，
14:47
we have some preliminary results.
351
872000
2000
我们已经有了初步的结果。
14:49
They're not statistically significant.
352
874000
2000
这些数据在统计学上并不可观
14:51
But we have something.
353
876000
3000
但是我们有了些数据
14:54
And it turns out that you're right and I'm wrong.
354
879000
3000
结果表明你们是正确的我是错的
14:57
It is dangerous for patients
355
882000
2000
让心脏病人在家
14:59
to recover from heart attacks at home.
356
884000
2000
康复是危险的
15:01
They should be in hospital."
357
886000
3000
他们应该留在医院里。 ”
15:04
And there's this uproar, and all the doctors start pounding the table
358
889000
2000
这引起了一片吵嚷， 医生们开始拍桌子
15:06
and saying, "We always said you were unethical, Archie.
359
891000
3000
说：“我们一直说阿奇你这样做是不道德的”
15:09
You're killing people with your clinical trials. You need to shut it down now.
360
894000
3000
你用你的临床试验在杀人，你应该现在就停止。
15:12
Shut it down at once."
361
897000
2000
马上停止。“
15:14
And there's this huge hubbub.
362
899000
2000
阿奇等这一阵大声的吵嚷
15:16
Archie lets it die down.
363
901000
2000
安静下来后
15:18
And then he says, "Well that's very interesting, gentlemen,
364
903000
2000
说：“先生们， 真是很有意思，
15:20
because when I gave you the table of results,
365
905000
3000
因为当我给你们看结果的时候，
15:23
I swapped the two columns around.
366
908000
4000
我互换了这两行资料
15:27
It turns out your hospitals are killing people,
367
912000
2000
其实结果证明你们的医院在杀人，
15:29
and they should be at home.
368
914000
2000
病人应该在家恢复。
15:31
Would you like to close down the trial now,
369
916000
3000
你们还想让我停止试验呢
15:34
or should we wait until we have robust results?"
370
919000
3000
还是希望等我们得到更确切的结果？”
15:38
Tumbleweed
371
923000
2000
会议室如风滚草
15:40
rolls through the meeting room.
372
925000
3000
卷过一般安静下来
15:43
But Cochrane would do that kind of thing.
373
928000
3000
阿奇喜欢做这样的事情
15:46
And the reason he would do that kind of thing
374
931000
2000
他喜欢这么做的原因是
15:48
is because he understood
375
933000
2000
他知道
15:50
it feels so much better
376
935000
2000
大家更喜欢
15:52
to stand there and say,
377
937000
2000
站在那里说：
15:54
"Here in my own little world,
378
939000
2000
“ 在我的小世界里，
15:56
I am a god, I understand everything.
379
941000
2000
我是上帝， 我懂得一切
15:58
I do not want to have my opinions challenged.
380
943000
2000
我不希望有人挑战我的观点。
16:00
I do not want to have my conclusions tested."
381
945000
3000
我不需要有人来测试我的结论。”
16:03
It feels so much more comfortable
382
948000
2000
简单地定下法则
16:05
simply to lay down the law.
383
950000
3000
然人感到很自在。
16:08
Cochrane understood
384
953000
2000
阿奇懂得
16:10
that uncertainty, that fallibility,
385
955000
2000
他们对那种不肯定的, 易错的
16:12
that being challenged, they hurt.
386
957000
2000
被挑战的感觉感到不爽
16:14
And you sometimes need to be shocked out of that.
387
959000
4000
而有的时候我们需要把这种感觉震落掉
16:18
Now I'm not going to pretend that this is easy.
388
963000
3000
我不想假装这是件容易的事情
16:21
It isn't easy.
389
966000
2000
这并不容易
16:23
It's incredibly painful.
390
968000
2000
它会是个痛苦的过程
16:25
And since I started talking about this subject
391
970000
2000
当我开始谈论这个话题
16:27
and researching this subject,
392
972000
2000
研究这个话题
16:29
I've been really haunted by something
393
974000
2000
我脑海里一直环绕着
16:31
a Japanese mathematician said on the subject.
394
976000
2000
一个日本数学家在这个话题上说的话
16:33
So shortly after the war,
395
978000
2000
战争一结束
16:35
this young man, Yutaka Taniyama,
396
980000
3000
这个年轻人，谷山丰
16:38
developed this amazing conjecture
397
983000
2000
提出了惊人的推测
16:40
called the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture.
398
985000
2000
谷山-志村猜想
16:42
It turned out to be absolutely instrumental
399
987000
3000
结果几十年后
16:45
many decades later
400
990000
2000
为证明费马最后定理
16:47
in proving Fermat's Last Theorem.
401
992000
2000
奠定了基础
16:49
In fact, it turns out it's equivalent
402
994000
2000
事实，它和费马最后定理是
16:51
to proving Fermat's Last Theorem.
403
996000
2000
同等的
16:53
You prove one, you prove the other.
404
998000
4000
你证明了一个，就证明了另一个
16:57
But it was always a conjecture.
405
1002000
3000
但是它只是一个猜想
17:00
Taniyama tried and tried and tried
406
1005000
3000
谷山丰试了一遍又一遍
17:03
and he could never prove that it was true.
407
1008000
3000
但是他不能证明它是正确的
17:06
And shortly before his 30th birthday in 1958,
408
1011000
3000
1958年他刚刚过了30岁后
17:09
Yutaka Taniyama killed himself.
409
1014000
4000
谷山丰结束了自己的生命
17:13
His friend, Goro Shimura --
410
1018000
2000
他的朋友，志村五郎
17:15
who worked on the mathematics with him --
411
1020000
2000
和他一起研究数学
17:17
many decades later, reflected on Taniyama's life.
412
1022000
3000
几十年后回顾谷山丰的生平时
17:22
He said,
413
1027000
3000
他说
17:25
"He was not a very careful person
414
1030000
2000
“他不是一个很仔细的人
17:27
as a mathematician.
415
1032000
2000
作为一个数学家
17:29
He made a lot of mistakes.
416
1034000
3000
他犯了很多错误
17:32
But he made mistakes in a good direction.
417
1037000
4000
但是他能朝好的方向犯错
17:36
I tried to emulate him,
418
1041000
3000
我想效仿他
17:39
but I realized
419
1044000
2000
但是我发现
17:41
it is very difficult
420
1046000
2000
能朝好的方向犯错
17:43
to make good mistakes."
421
1048000
3000
很难。”
17:46
Thank you.
422
1051000
2000
谢谢
17:48
(Applause)
423
1053000
12000
（掌声）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tim Harford - Economist, journalist, broadcasterTim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences.
Why you should listen
In the Undercover Economist column he writes for the Financial Times, Tim Harford looks at familiar situations in unfamiliar ways and explains the fundamental principles of the modern economy. He illuminates them with clear writing and a variety of examples borrowed from daily life.
His book, Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure, argues that the world has become far too unpredictable and complex for today's challenges to be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions. Instead, Harford suggests, we need to learn to embrace failure and to constantly adapt, to improvise rather than plan, to work from the bottom up rather than the top down. His next book, Messy: Thriving in a Tidy-Minded World will be published in September 2016.
Harford also presents the BBC radio series More or Less, a rare broadcast program devoted, as he says, to "the powerful, sometimes beautiful, often abused but ever ubiquitous world of numbers."
He says: "I’d like to see many more complex problems approached with a willingness to experiment."
Tim Harford | Speaker | TED.com