TEDGlobal 2011
Tim Harford: Trial, error and the God complex
Tim Hartford: Pokušaj, greška i kompleks Boga
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Ekonomista Tim Hartford izučava kompleksne sisteme i pronalazi iznenađujuću vezu između onih uspešnih -- izgrađeni su pomoću metode pokušaja i greške. U ovom sjajnom govoru sa konferencije TEDGlobal 2011, on od nas traži da prihvatimo svoju nasumičnost i počnemo da pravimo bolje greške.
Tim Harford - Economist, journalist, broadcaster
Tim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences. Full bio
Tim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
It's the Second World War.
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U toku je Drugi svetski rat,
00:17
A German prison camp.
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u nemačkom koncentracionom logoru
00:20
And this man,
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i ovaj čovek,
00:23
Archie Cochrane,
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Arči Kokran,
00:26
is a prisoner of war and a doctor,
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je ratni zarobljenik i lekar,
00:29
and he has a problem.
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i on ima problem.
00:32
The problem is that the men under his care
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Njegov problem je što ljudi o kojima on brine
00:35
are suffering
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pate od
00:37
from an excruciating and debilitating condition
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nepodnošljive i iscrpljujuće bolesti
00:40
that Archie doesn't really understand.
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koju Arči ne razume.
00:43
The symptoms
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Simptomi su
00:45
are this horrible swelling up of fluids under the skin.
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užasno nagomilavanje tečnosti ispod kože.
00:48
But he doesn't know whether it's an infection, whether it's to do with malnutrition.
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On ne zna da li je u pitanju neka infekcija ili je to usled neuhranjenosti.
00:51
He doesn't know how to cure it.
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Ne zna kako da je izleči.
00:53
And he's operating in a hostile environment.
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A radi u neprijateljskom okruženju.
00:56
And people do terrible things in wars.
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Ljudi u ratu čine strahovite stvari.
00:58
The German camp guards, they've got bored.
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Nemačkim stražarima postalo je dosadno.
01:01
They've taken to just firing into the prison camp at random
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Počeli su nasumično da pucaju po logoru
01:03
for fun.
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iz zabave.
01:05
On one particular occasion,
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Jednom prilikom,
01:07
one of the guards threw a grenade into the prisoners' lavatory
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jedan od stražara ubacio je granatu u zatvorenički toalet
01:10
while it was full of prisoners.
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koji je bio pun zatvorenika.
01:13
He said he heard suspicious laughter.
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Kaže da je čuo sumnjiv smeh.
01:15
And Archie Cochrane, as the camp doctor,
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Arči Kokran, kao logorski lekar,
01:18
was one of the first men in
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našao se među prvima
01:20
to clear up the mess.
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da počisti nered.
01:22
And one more thing:
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I još jedna stvar --
01:24
Archie was suffering from this illness himself.
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Arči je i sam patio od iste bolesti.
01:27
So the situation seemed pretty desperate.
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Situacija je izgledala prilično beznadežno.
01:30
But Archie Cochrane
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Ali Arči Kokran
01:32
was a resourceful person.
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je bio dosetljiv.
01:35
He'd already smuggled vitamin C into the camp,
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Već je bio prokrijumčario vitamin C u logor,
01:38
and now he managed
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a sada je uspeo
01:40
to get hold of supplies of marmite
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i da se dokopa zaliha marmajta
01:42
on the black market.
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sa crnog tržišta.
01:44
Now some of you will be wondering what marmite is.
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Neki od vas će se pitati šta je to marmajt.
01:47
Marmite is a breakfast spread beloved of the British.
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Marmajt je hlebni namaz voljen u Britaniji.
01:50
It looks like crude oil.
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Izgleda kao sirova nafta.
01:52
It tastes ...
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Ukus mu je...
01:54
zesty.
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pikantan.
01:56
And importantly,
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I najvažnije,
01:58
it's a rich source
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bogat je izvor
02:00
of vitamin B12.
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vitamina B12.
02:02
So Archie splits the men under his care as best he can
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Arči je ljude pod svojim okriljem podelio najbolje što je umeo
02:05
into two equal groups.
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u dve jednake grupe.
02:07
He gives half of them vitamin C.
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Polovini je dao vitamin C,
02:09
He gives half of them vitamin B12.
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a polovini vitamin B12.
02:12
He very carefully and meticulously notes his results
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Detaljno i s velikom pažnjom je beležio rezultate
02:15
in an exercise book.
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u svojoj svesci.
02:17
And after just a few days,
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I nakon samo par dana,
02:19
it becomes clear
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bilo mu je jasno
02:21
that whatever is causing this illness,
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da ma koji bio uzrok bolesti,
02:24
marmite is the cure.
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marmajt joj je lek.
02:27
So Cochrane then goes to the Germans who are running the prison camp.
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Kokran tada odlazi Nemcima koji su upravljali logorom.
02:30
Now you've got to imagine at the moment --
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Sada morate zamisliti taj trenutak --
02:32
forget this photo, imagine this guy
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zaboravite ovu sliku, zamislite ovog čoveka
02:34
with this long ginger beard and this shock of red hair.
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sa tom dugom riđom bradom i gustom crvenom kosom.
02:37
He hasn't been able to shave -- a sort of Billy Connolly figure.
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Nije mogao da se brije -- figura nalik Bilu Konoliju.
02:40
Cochrane, he starts ranting at these Germans
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Kokran počinje da viče tim Nemcima
02:42
in this Scottish accent --
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svojim škotskim naglaskom --
02:44
in fluent German, by the way, but in a Scottish accent --
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na tečnom nemačkom, inače, ali sa škotskim naglaskom --
02:47
and explains to them how German culture was the culture
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i objašnjava kako je Nemačka bila kultura
02:50
that gave Schiller and Goethe to the world.
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koja je svetu podarila Šilera i Getea.
02:52
And he can't understand
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I on ne shvata kako
02:54
how this barbarism can be tolerated,
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se ovakvo varvarstvo može tolerisati.
02:56
and he vents his frustrations.
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Dao je oduška svojim frustracijama.
02:59
And then he goes back to his quarters,
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Onda se vratio u svoje prostorije,
03:02
breaks down and weeps
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podlegao emocijama i zaplakao,
03:05
because he's convinced that the situation is hopeless.
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jer je bio ubeđen da je situacija beznadežna.
03:10
But a young German doctor
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Međutim, jedan mladi nemački lekar
03:13
picks up Archie Cochrane's exercise book
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pronašao je svesku Arčija Kokrana
03:16
and says to his colleagues,
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i rekao svojim kolegama:
03:20
"This evidence is incontrovertible.
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"Dokazi su neosporni.
03:25
If we don't supply vitamins to the prisoners,
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Ako ne obezbedimo vitamine zatvorenicima,
03:28
it's a war crime."
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to će biti ratni zločin."
03:30
And the next morning,
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Sledećeg jutra,
03:32
supplies of vitamin B12 are delivered to the camp,
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zalihe vitamina B12 isporučene su u logor,
03:35
and the prisoners begin to recover.
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i zatvorenici su počeli da se oporavljaju.
03:39
Now I'm not telling you this story
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Ne pričam vam ovo
03:41
because I think Archie Cochrane is a dude,
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zato što mislim da je Arči Kokran likčina,
03:43
although Archie Cochrane is a dude.
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iako Arči Kokran jeste likčina.
03:47
I'm not even telling you the story
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Ne pričam vam ni zato što
03:49
because I think we should be running
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mislim da bi trebalo sprovoditi
03:51
more carefully controlled randomized trials
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pažljivije kontrolisana slučajna ispitivanja
03:53
in all aspects of public policy,
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u svim aspektima javne politike,
03:55
although I think that would also be completely awesome.
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iako mislim da bi i to bilo fenomenalno.
03:59
I'm telling you this story
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Ovo vam govorim
04:01
because Archie Cochrane, all his life,
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zato što se Arči Kokran celog života
04:04
fought against a terrible affliction,
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borio protiv užasne bolesti.
04:08
and he realized it was debilitating to individuals
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Uvideo je da oslabljujuće deluje na pojedince
04:12
and it was corrosive to societies.
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i nagrizajuće na društva.
04:14
And he had a name for it.
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Dao joj je ime.
04:16
He called it the God complex.
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Nazvao ju je kompleks Boga.
04:19
Now I can describe the symptoms of the God complex very, very easily.
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Simptomi kompleksa Boga mogu se opisati veoma, veoma lako.
04:23
So the symptoms of the complex
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Dakle, simptomi ovog kompleksa
04:26
are, no matter how complicated the problem,
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su da, koliko god bio komplikovan problem,
04:29
you have an absolutely overwhelming belief
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vi ćete biti apsolutno nepokolebljivog uverenja
04:32
that you are infallibly right in your solution.
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da je vaše rešenje nepogrešivo tačno.
04:36
Now Archie was a doctor,
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Arči je bio lekar.
04:38
so he hung around with doctors a lot.
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I prilično se družio sa ostalim lekarima.
04:40
And doctors suffer from the God complex a lot.
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A lekari često pate od kompleksa Boga.
04:43
Now I'm an economist, I'm not a doctor,
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Ja sam ekonomista, nisam lekar,
04:45
but I see the God complex around me all the time
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ali često nailazim na kompleks Boga
04:47
in my fellow economists.
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kod svojih kolega ekonomista.
04:49
I see it in our business leaders.
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Vidim ga u našim poslovnim liderima.
04:51
I see it in the politicians we vote for --
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Vidim ga u političarima za koje glasamo --
04:53
people who, in the face of an incredibly complicated world,
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ljudima koji su, suočeni sa neverovatno komplikovanim svetom,
04:57
are nevertheless absolutely convinced
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i dalje potpuno ubeđeni
05:00
that they understand the way that the world works.
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da savršeno razumeju kako taj svet funkcioniše.
05:03
And you know, with the future billions that we've been hearing about,
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I znate, pored budućih milijardi o kojima već dugo slušamo,
05:06
the world is simply far too complex
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svet je jednostavno suviše kompleksan
05:08
to understand in that way.
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da bi se shvatao na takav način.
05:10
Well let me give you an example.
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Evo, daću vam primer.
05:12
Imagine for a moment
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Zamislite na trenutak
05:14
that, instead of Tim Harford in front of you,
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da umesto Tima Hartforda pred vama ovde
05:16
there was Hans Rosling presenting his graphs.
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stoji Hans Rozling prezentujući svoje dijagrame.
05:19
You know Hans:
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Znate Hansa --
05:21
the Mick Jagger of TED.
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Mik Džegera TED-a.
05:23
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
05:25
And he'd be showing you these amazing statistics,
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Pokazivao bi vam neku zapanjujuću statistiku,
05:27
these amazing animations.
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neke zapanjujuće animacije.
05:29
And they are brilliant; it's wonderful work.
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A zaista jesu briljantne; to je izuzetan rad.
05:31
But a typical Hans Rosling graph:
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Jedan tipičan dijagram Hansa Rozlinga --
05:33
think for a moment, not what it shows,
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zamislite na trenutak, ne šta vam pokazuje,
05:36
but think instead about what it leaves out.
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već ono što je u njemu izostavljeno.
05:39
So it'll show you GDP per capita,
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Pokazaće vam BDP po glavi,
05:42
population, longevity,
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populaciju, životni vek,
05:44
that's about it.
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i to je to.
05:46
So three pieces of data for each country --
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Dakle, tri različita podatka za svaku državu --
05:48
three pieces of data.
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tri podatka.
05:50
Three pieces of data is nothing.
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Tri podatka nisu ništa.
05:52
I mean, have a look at this graph.
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Evo, pogledajte ovaj dijagram.
05:54
This is produced by the physicist Cesar Hidalgo.
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Ovaj je napravio fizičar Sesar Hidalgo.
05:56
He's at MIT.
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On radi u Institutu tehnologije u Masačusetsu.
05:58
Now you won't be able to understand a word of it,
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Nećete razumeti ni reč ovoga,
06:00
but this is what it looks like.
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ali ovako to izgleda.
06:02
Cesar has trolled the database
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Sesar je prikupio bazu podataka
06:04
of over 5,000 different products,
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od preko 5.000 različitih proizvoda,
06:07
and he's used techniques of network analysis
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i iskoristio tehnike analize mreže
06:12
to interrogate this database
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da testira tu bazu
06:14
and to graph relationships between the different products.
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i skicira veze između različitih proizvoda.
06:16
And it's wonderful, wonderful work.
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To je divan, zaista divan rad.
06:18
You show all these interconnections, all these interrelations.
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Da pokažeš sve te povezanosti, sve odnose.
06:21
And I think it'll be profoundly useful
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Mislim da bi bilo neizmerno korisno
06:23
in understanding how it is that economies grow.
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za razumevanje razvoja ekonomija.
06:26
Brilliant work.
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Briljantan rad.
06:28
Cesar and I tried to write a piece for The New York Times Magazine
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Sesar i ja smo pokušali da napišemo članak za Njujork Tajms
06:30
explaining how this works.
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da bi objasnili kako funkcioniše.
06:32
And what we learned
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I došli smo do zaključka
06:34
is Cesar's work is far too good to explain
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da je Sesarov rad previše dobar
06:36
in The New York Times Magazine.
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da bi se mogao objasniti u Njujork Tajmsu.
06:40
Five thousand products --
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5.000 proizvoda --
06:43
that's still nothing.
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to još uvek ne znači ništa.
06:45
Five thousand products --
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5.000 proizvoda --
06:47
imagine counting every product category
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zamislite prebrojavanje svake kategorije
06:49
in Cesar Hidalgo's data.
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iz baze podataka Sesara Hidalga.
06:51
Imagine you had one second
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Zamislite da svake sekunde čujete
06:53
per product category.
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po jednu kategoriju proizvoda.
06:55
In about the length of this session,
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Otprilike za ovo jedno izlaganje,
06:58
you would have counted all 5,000.
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izbrojali biste svih 5.000.
07:00
Now imagine doing the same thing
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Sada zamislite da radite istu stvar
07:02
for every different type of product on sale in Walmart.
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za svaki različiti proizvod u prodaji u Volmartu.
07:05
There are 100,000 there. It would take you all day.
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Tamo ih je 100.000. Trebao bi vam ceo dan.
07:08
Now imagine trying to count
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Sada zamislite da prebrojavate
07:10
every different specific product and service
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svaki različiti proizvod i uslugu
07:13
on sale in a major economy
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u ponudi u nekoj od vodećih ekonomija,
07:15
such as Tokyo, London or New York.
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kao što su Tokio, London ili Njujork.
07:17
It's even more difficult in Edinburgh
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U Edinburgu je još teže,
07:19
because you have to count all the whisky and the tartan.
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jer morate uračunati i sav viski i tartan.
07:22
If you wanted to count every product and service
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Ako biste hteli da prebrojite svaki proizvod i uslugu
07:24
on offer in New York --
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u ponudi u Njujorku --
07:26
there are 10 billion of them --
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ima ih 10 milijardi --
07:28
it would take you 317 years.
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trebalo bi vam 317 godina.
07:31
This is how complex the economy we've created is.
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Toliko je složena ekonomija koju smo stvorili.
07:34
And I'm just counting toasters here.
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A ja ovde samo brojim tostere.
07:36
I'm not trying to solve the Middle East problem.
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Ne pokušavam da rešim krizu na Bliskom Istoku.
07:39
The complexity here is unbelievable.
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Složenost je ovde neverovatna.
07:42
And just a piece of context --
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Samo jedan delić konteksta --
07:44
the societies in which our brains evolved
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društva u kojima su naši mozgovi evoluirali
07:46
had about 300 products and services.
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imala su oko 300 priozvoda i usluga.
07:48
You could count them in five minutes.
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Mogli biste ih prebrojati za 5 minuta.
07:51
So this is the complexity of the world that surrounds us.
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To je složenost sveta koji nas okružuje.
07:54
This perhaps is why
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To je možda razlog zašto
07:56
we find the God complex so tempting.
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nam kompleks Boga izgleda tako primamljivo.
07:59
We tend to retreat and say, "We can draw a picture,
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Često se povučemo i kažemo: "Možemo nacrtati sliku,
08:02
we can post some graphs,
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ubaciti nekoliko grafikona,
08:04
we get it, we understand how this works."
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dakle znamo šta je, razumemo kako funkcioniše."
08:07
And we don't.
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A zapravo ne razumemo.
08:09
We never do.
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Nikad ne razumemo.
08:11
Now I'm not trying to deliver a nihilistic message here.
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Ne pokušavam da vam ovde prenesem nihilističku poruku.
08:13
I'm not trying to say we can't solve
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Ne želim da kažem da nismo u stanju
08:15
complicated problems in a complicated world.
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da rešimo komplikovane probleme u komplikovanom svetu.
08:17
We clearly can.
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Očito je da možemo.
08:19
But the way we solve them
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Ali, način na koji ih rešavamo
08:21
is with humility --
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treba biti ponizan --
08:23
to abandon the God complex
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bez kompleksa Boga
08:25
and to actually use a problem-solving technique that works.
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koristeći tehniku koja zapravo funkcioniše.
08:28
And we have a problem-solving technique that works.
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A mi imamo tehniku koja funkcioniše.
08:31
Now you show me
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Pokažite mi
08:33
a successful complex system,
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uspešan kompleksni sistem,
08:35
and I will show you a system
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a ja ću vam pokazati sistem
08:38
that has evolved through trial and error.
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koji se razvio putem pokušaja i greške.
08:40
Here's an example.
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Evo primera.
08:42
This baby was produced through trial and error.
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Ova beba nastala je putem pokušaja i greške.
08:46
I realize that's an ambiguous statement.
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Shvatam da je ovo dvosmislena izjava.
08:49
Maybe I should clarify it.
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Možda treba da pojasnim.
08:51
This baby is a human body: it evolved.
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Ova beba je ljudsko telo: evoluirala je.
08:54
What is evolution?
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A šta je evolucija?
08:56
Over millions of years, variation and selection,
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Tokom miliona godina, varijacija i selekcija,
08:59
variation and selection --
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varijacija i selekcija --
09:02
trial and error,
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pokušaj i greška,
09:04
trial and error.
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pokušaj i greška.
09:07
And it's not just biological systems
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I nisu samo biološki sistemi ti
09:09
that produce miracles through trial and error.
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koji čine čuda putem pokušaja i greške.
09:11
You could use it in an industrial context.
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Mogu se primeniti i u industrijskom kontekstu.
09:13
So let's say you wanted to make detergent.
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Recimo da želite da napravite deterdžent.
09:15
Let's say you're Unilever
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Recimo da radite za Juniliver
09:17
and you want to make detergent in a factory near Liverpool.
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i želite da napravite deterdžent u fabrici nadomak Liverpula.
09:20
How do you do it?
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Kako ćete to izvesti?
09:22
Well you have this great big tank full of liquid detergent.
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Pa, imate neki ogroman rezervoar pun tečnog deterdženta.
09:25
You pump it at a high pressure through a nozzle.
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Ispumpate ga pod velikim pritiskom kroz štrcaljku.
09:27
You create a spray of detergent.
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I napravili ste deterdžent u spreju.
09:30
Then the spray dries. It turns into powder.
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Onda se sprej osuši. I pretvori se u prah.
09:32
It falls to the floor.
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Padne na pod.
09:34
You scoop it up. You put it in cardboard boxes.
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Vi ga podignete, upakujete u kartonske kutije,
09:36
You sell it at a supermarket.
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i prodate u supermarketu.
09:38
You make lots of money.
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Zaradite puno novca.
09:40
How do you design that nozzle?
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A kako ćete dizajnirati tu štrcaljku?
09:43
It turns out to be very important.
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I ona je vrlo bitna.
09:46
Now if you ascribe to the God complex,
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Ako se držite ovog kompleksa,
09:48
what you do is you find yourself a little God.
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naći ćete sebi malog Boga.
09:51
You find yourself a mathematician; you find yourself a physicist --
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Naći ćete sebi matematičara; naći fizičara --
09:54
somebody who understands the dynamics of this fluid.
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nekoga ko se razume u dinamiku ove tečnosti.
09:57
And he will, or she will,
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I on, ili ona, će vam
10:00
calculate the optimal design of the nozzle.
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izračunati optimalni dizajn štrcaljke.
10:03
Now Unilever did this and it didn't work --
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Juniliver je to pokušao i nije im uspelo --
10:05
too complicated.
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previše komplikovano.
10:07
Even this problem, too complicated.
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Čak je i ovaj problem previše komplikovan.
10:10
But the geneticist Professor Steve Jones
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Ali genetičar profesor Stiv Džons
10:13
describes how Unilever actually did solve this problem --
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opisao je kako je Juniliver ipak uspeo da reši problem --
10:16
trial and error,
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pokušajem i greškom,
10:18
variation and selection.
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varijacijom i selekcijom.
10:20
You take a nozzle
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Uzmete štrcaljku
10:22
and you create 10 random variations on the nozzle.
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i napravite 10 nasumičnih varijanti te štrcaljke.
10:26
You try out all 10; you keep the one that works best.
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Isprobate svih 10, zadržite onu koja najbolje radi.
10:29
You create 10 variations on that one.
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I napravite 10 varijanti nje.
10:31
You try out all 10. You keep the one that works best.
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Isprobate svih 10. Zadržite onu koja najbolje radi.
10:34
You try out 10 variations on that one.
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Onda isprobate 10 varijanti te.
10:36
You see how this works, right?
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Shvatate kako ovo funkcioniše, zar ne?
10:38
And after 45 generations,
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I nakon 45 generacija,
10:40
you have this incredible nozzle.
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dobićete tu neverovatno dobru štrcaljku.
10:42
It looks a bit like a chess piece --
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Liči pomalo na šahovsku figuru --
10:44
functions absolutely brilliantly.
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funkcioniše apsolutno savršeno.
10:47
We have no idea
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Mi nemamo pojma
10:49
why it works,
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zašto funkcioniše,
10:51
no idea at all.
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nemamo nikakvu predstavu.
10:53
And the moment you step back from the God complex --
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Onog trenutka kad se udaljite od kompleksa Boga --
10:55
let's just try to have a bunch of stuff;
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stavom: "Pokušajmo da napravimo gomilu stvari;
10:57
let's have a systematic way of determining what's working and what's not --
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hajde da na sistematski način utvrdimo šta funkcioniše, a šta ne" --
11:00
you can solve your problem.
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možete rešiti svoj problem.
11:02
Now this process of trial and error
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Ovaj proces pokušaja i greške je zapravo
11:04
is actually far more common in successful institutions
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mnogo prisutniji u uspešnim institucijama
11:07
than we care to recognize.
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nego što mi to sebi želimo da priznamo.
11:09
And we've heard a lot about how economies function.
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Čuli smo dosta o tome kako ekonomije funkcionišu.
11:12
The U.S. economy is still the world's greatest economy.
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Američka ekonomija je još uvek najveća u svetu.
11:16
How did it become the world's greatest economy?
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A kako je postala najveća ekonomija?
11:19
I could give you all kinds of facts and figures
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Mogao bih vam dati razne činjenice i cifre
11:21
about the U.S. economy,
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o američkoj ekonomiji,
11:23
but I think the most salient one is this:
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ali mislim da je ova najupadljivija:
11:26
ten percent of American businesses
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10 procenata američkih firmi
11:29
disappear every year.
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nestane svake godine.
11:32
That is a huge failure rate.
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To je velika stopa neuspeha.
11:35
It's far higher than the failure rate of, say, Americans.
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Dosta veća od stope neuspeha, recimo, Amerikanaca.
11:37
Ten percent of Americans don't disappear every year.
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10 procenata Amerikanaca ne nestaje svake godine.
11:40
Which leads us to conclude
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Što nas dovodi do zaključka da
11:42
American businesses fail faster than Americans,
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američke firme propadaju brže nego Amerikanci,
11:45
and therefore American businesses are evolving faster than Americans.
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iz čega sledi da američke firme evoluiraju brže od Amerikanaca.
11:48
And eventually, they'll have evolved to such a high peak of perfection
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I jednog dana, dostići će takav stepen savršenosti
11:51
that they will make us all their pets --
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da će nas sve pretvotiti u svoje kućne ljubimce --
11:54
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
11:56
if, of course, they haven't already done so.
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ukoliko, naravno, to već nisu i učinile.
11:59
I sometimes wonder.
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Ponekad se zapitam.
12:02
But it's this process of trial and error
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Ovaj proces pokušaja i greške
12:04
that explains this great divergence,
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objašnjava ovu ogromnu razliku,
12:08
this incredible performance of Western economies.
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ovaj neverovatan uspeh zapadnjačkih ekonomija.
12:11
It didn't come because you put some incredibly smart person in charge.
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On nije rezultat postavljanja nekog izuzetno pametnog rukovodioca.
12:14
It's come through trial and error.
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On je rezultat pokušaja i greške.
12:16
Now I've been sort of banging on about this
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Možda sam malo preterao sa tom pričom
12:18
for the last couple of months,
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poslednjih par meseci,
12:20
and people sometimes say to me,
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jer mi ljudi ponekad kažu:
12:22
"Well Tim, it's kind of obvious.
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"Dobro, Time, to je očigledno.
12:24
Obviously trial and error is very important.
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Pokušaj i greška su očigledno vrlo bitni.
12:26
Obviously experimentation is very important.
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Eksperimentisanje je očigledno vrlo bitno.
12:28
Now why are you just wandering around saying this obvious thing?"
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Zašto juriš okolo i svima pričaš nešto tako očigledno?"
12:31
So I say, okay, fine.
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I ja onda kažem, okej, u redu.
12:33
You think it's obvious?
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Mislite da je očigledno?
12:35
I will admit it's obvious
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Priznaću da je očigledno
12:37
when schools
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kada škole budu
12:39
start teaching children
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počele da uče decu
12:42
that there are some problems that don't have a correct answer.
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da postoje zadaci koji nemaju ispravno rešenje.
12:45
Stop giving them lists of questions
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Neka prestanu da im daju liste pitanja
12:48
every single one of which has an answer.
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od kojih svako ima odgovor.
12:50
And there's an authority figure in the corner
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U ćošku stoji osoba od autoriteta
12:52
behind the teacher's desk who knows all the answers.
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koja zna sve odgovore.
12:54
And if you can't find the answers,
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Ukoliko ne možeš pronaći odgovore,
12:56
you must be lazy or stupid.
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mora da si lenj ili glup.
12:58
When schools stop doing that all the time,
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Kada škole prestanu to da rade svakodnevno,
13:00
I will admit that, yes,
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ja ću priznati da
13:02
it's obvious that trial and error is a good thing.
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jeste očigledno da su pokušaj i greška dobri.
13:04
When a politician stands up
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Kada političar ustane
13:07
campaigning for elected office
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prilikom izborne kampanje
13:09
and says, "I want to fix our health system.
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i kaže: "Želim da popravim naš sistem zdravstveni sistem.
13:11
I want to fix our education system.
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Želim da popravim naš obrazovni sistem.
13:13
I have no idea how to do it.
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Nemam pojma kako to da uradim.
13:16
I have half a dozen ideas.
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Ali, imam gomilu ideja.
13:18
We're going to test them out. They'll probably all fail.
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Testiraćemo ih. I verovatno će sve biti neuspešne.
13:21
Then we'll test some other ideas out.
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Onda ćemo testitirati neke druge ideje.
13:23
We'll find some that work. We'll build on those.
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Naći ćemo neke koje funkcionišu. Nadogradićemo njih.
13:25
We'll get rid of the ones that don't." --
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Otarasićemo se onih koje ne funkcionišu."
13:27
when a politician campaigns on that platform,
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Kada političar bude vodio takvu kampanju,
13:30
and more importantly, when voters like you and me
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i još važnije, kada birači kao vi i ja
13:33
are willing to vote for that kind of politician,
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budu voljni da glasaju za njega,
13:35
then I will admit
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onda ću priznati
13:37
that it is obvious that trial and error works, and that -- thank you.
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da je očigledno da pokušaj i greška funkcionišu, i da -- hvala.
13:40
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
13:44
Until then, until then
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Za to vreme, za to vreme
13:47
I'm going to keep banging on about trial and error
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ću nastaviti da pričam o pokušaju i greški
13:49
and why we should abandon the God complex.
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i o tome zašto se treba ostaviti kompleksa Boga.
13:52
Because it's so hard
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Zato što je jako teško
13:55
to admit our own fallibility.
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priznati sopstvenu pogrešivost.
13:57
It's so uncomfortable.
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Tako je neprijatno.
13:59
And Archie Cochrane understood this as well as anybody.
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A Arči Kokran je znao to kao i svako drugi.
14:02
There's this one trial he ran
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Postojalo je jedno ispitivanje koji je on sproveo
14:04
many years after World War II.
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mnogo godina nakon Drugog svetskog rata.
14:06
He wanted to test out
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Hteo je da utvrdi
14:09
the question of, where is it
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na kom bi se mestu
14:11
that patients should recover
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pacijenti najbolje oporavili
14:13
from heart attacks?
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od srčanog napada.
14:15
Should they recover in a specialized cardiac unit in hospital,
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Da li bi trebalo da se oporavljaju na specijalizovanom
14:18
or should they recover at home?
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odeljenju za kardiologiju ili kod kuće?
14:21
All the cardiac doctors tried to shut him down.
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Svi kardiolozi su pokušali da ga zaustave.
14:24
They had the God complex in spades.
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Imali su pozamašno veliki kompleks Boga.
14:27
They knew that their hospitals were the right place for patients,
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Znali su da su njihove bolnice pravo mesto za pacijente.
14:30
and they knew it was very unethical
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I znali su da je vrlo neetički
14:32
to run any kind of trial or experiment.
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vršiti bilo kakva ispitivanja i eksperimente.
14:35
Nevertheless, Archie managed to get permission to do this.
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Uprkos tome, Arči je dobio dozvolu da to uradi.
14:37
He ran his trial.
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Sproveo je svoje ispitivanje.
14:39
And after the trial had been running for a little while,
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I dok je ispitivanje bilo u toku,
14:41
he gathered together all his colleagues
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sakupio je sve svoje kolege
14:43
around his table,
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oko svog stola,
14:45
and he said, "Well, gentlemen,
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i rekao: "Pa, gospodo,
14:47
we have some preliminary results.
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dobili smo neke preliminarne rezultate.
14:49
They're not statistically significant.
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Statistički nisu značajni.
14:51
But we have something.
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Ali ipak imamo nešto.
14:54
And it turns out that you're right and I'm wrong.
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I ispostavilo se da ste vi bili u pravu, a ja nisam.
14:57
It is dangerous for patients
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Jeste opasno po pacijente
14:59
to recover from heart attacks at home.
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da se od srčanih udara oporavljaju kući.
15:01
They should be in hospital."
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Treba da budu u bolnici."
15:04
And there's this uproar, and all the doctors start pounding the table
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I onda počinje galama, lekari udaraju u sto
15:06
and saying, "We always said you were unethical, Archie.
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i govore: "Uvek smo govorili da to nije etički, Arči.
15:09
You're killing people with your clinical trials. You need to shut it down now.
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Ubijaš pacijente svojim kliničkim ispitivanjima. Moraš prestati time da se baviš.
15:12
Shut it down at once."
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Prestani odmah."
15:14
And there's this huge hubbub.
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Nastaje ogroman metež.
15:16
Archie lets it die down.
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Arči sačeka dok se ne utiša.
15:18
And then he says, "Well that's very interesting, gentlemen,
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I onda kaže: "Dobro, sve je to jako zanimljivo, gospodo,
15:20
because when I gave you the table of results,
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jer kad sam vam pokazao tabelu sa rezultatima,
15:23
I swapped the two columns around.
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ja sam zamenio mesta dvema kolonama.
15:27
It turns out your hospitals are killing people,
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Ispostavilo se da vaše bolnice ubijaju ljude,
15:29
and they should be at home.
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i da treba da budu kući.
15:31
Would you like to close down the trial now,
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Da li odmah želite da prekinemo ispitivanje,
15:34
or should we wait until we have robust results?"
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ili želite da sačekamo još jače rezultate?
15:38
Tumbleweed
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Vetrovalj
15:40
rolls through the meeting room.
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prokotrlja kroz kancelariju za sastanke.
15:43
But Cochrane would do that kind of thing.
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Kokran je zaista bio spreman da uradi tako nešto.
15:46
And the reason he would do that kind of thing
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A bio je spreman zbog toga
15:48
is because he understood
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što je shvatio
15:50
it feels so much better
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da se mnogo bolje oseća
15:52
to stand there and say,
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dok stoji tu i govori:
15:54
"Here in my own little world,
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"Ovde u svom malom svetu,
15:56
I am a god, I understand everything.
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ja sam bog, ja razumem sve.
15:58
I do not want to have my opinions challenged.
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I ne želim da se moja mišljenja dovode u pitanje.
16:00
I do not want to have my conclusions tested."
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Ne želim da se moji zaključci osporavaju."
16:03
It feels so much more comfortable
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Mnogo je ugodniji osećaj
16:05
simply to lay down the law.
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da jednostavno naredite ljudima šta da rade.
16:08
Cochrane understood
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Kokran je svhatio
16:10
that uncertainty, that fallibility,
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da nesigurnost, pogrešivost,
16:12
that being challenged, they hurt.
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i osporavanje bole.
16:14
And you sometimes need to be shocked out of that.
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I ponekad je potrebno protresti nas iz toga.
16:18
Now I'm not going to pretend that this is easy.
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Neću se pretvarati da je to lako.
16:21
It isn't easy.
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Nije lako.
16:23
It's incredibly painful.
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Veoma je bolno.
16:25
And since I started talking about this subject
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I otkad sam počeo da govorim o tome
16:27
and researching this subject,
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i da istražujem tu temu,
16:29
I've been really haunted by something
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strašno me je proganjalo nešto
16:31
a Japanese mathematician said on the subject.
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što je jedan japanski matematičar izjavio o tome.
16:33
So shortly after the war,
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Ubrzo nakon rata,
16:35
this young man, Yutaka Taniyama,
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jedan mladi čovek, Jutaka Tanijama,
16:38
developed this amazing conjecture
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razvio je jednu zadivljujuću pretpostavku
16:40
called the Taniyama-Shimura Conjecture.
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zvanu: Pretpostavka Tanijama-Šimura.
16:42
It turned out to be absolutely instrumental
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Pokazala se vrlo korisnom,
16:45
many decades later
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mnogo decenija kasnije,
16:47
in proving Fermat's Last Theorem.
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za dokazivanje Fermatove poslednje teoreme.
16:49
In fact, it turns out it's equivalent
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Zapravo, pokazala se kao ekvivalent
16:51
to proving Fermat's Last Theorem.
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dokazivanju Fermatove poslednje teoreme.
16:53
You prove one, you prove the other.
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Dokažete jednu, dokazali ste i drugu.
16:57
But it was always a conjecture.
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Ali, oduvek je bila samo pretpostavka.
17:00
Taniyama tried and tried and tried
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Tanijama je pokušavao i pokušavao
17:03
and he could never prove that it was true.
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i nikad nije mogao da dokaže da je tačna.
17:06
And shortly before his 30th birthday in 1958,
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A onda je, malo pre svog 30. rođendana 1958.
17:09
Yutaka Taniyama killed himself.
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Jutaka Tanijama izvršio samoubistvo.
17:13
His friend, Goro Shimura --
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Njegov prijatelj, Goro Šimura --
17:15
who worked on the mathematics with him --
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koji je radio na matematici s njim --
17:17
many decades later, reflected on Taniyama's life.
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decenijama kasnije, govorio je o Tanijaminom životu.
17:22
He said,
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Rekao je:
17:25
"He was not a very careful person
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"Nije bio naročito pažljiv
17:27
as a mathematician.
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kao matematičar.
17:29
He made a lot of mistakes.
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Dosta je grešio.
17:32
But he made mistakes in a good direction.
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Ali, greške je činio u dobrom smeru.
17:36
I tried to emulate him,
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Pokušao sam da ga kopiram,
17:39
but I realized
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ali sam shvatio
17:41
it is very difficult
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da je vrlo teško
17:43
to make good mistakes."
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činiti dobre greške."
17:46
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
17:48
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Tim Harford - Economist, journalist, broadcasterTim Harford's writings reveal the economic ideas behind everyday experiences.
Why you should listen
In the Undercover Economist column he writes for the Financial Times, Tim Harford looks at familiar situations in unfamiliar ways and explains the fundamental principles of the modern economy. He illuminates them with clear writing and a variety of examples borrowed from daily life.
His book, Adapt: Why Success Always Starts With Failure, argues that the world has become far too unpredictable and complex for today's challenges to be tackled with ready-made solutions and expert opinions. Instead, Harford suggests, we need to learn to embrace failure and to constantly adapt, to improvise rather than plan, to work from the bottom up rather than the top down. His next book, Messy: Thriving in a Tidy-Minded World will be published in September 2016.
Harford also presents the BBC radio series More or Less, a rare broadcast program devoted, as he says, to "the powerful, sometimes beautiful, often abused but ever ubiquitous world of numbers."
He says: "I’d like to see many more complex problems approached with a willingness to experiment."
Tim Harford | Speaker | TED.com