TED@BCG Paris
Olivier Scalabre: The next manufacturing revolution is here
Olivier Scalabre: Nova proizvodna revolucija je ovdje
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Ekonomski rast je bio usporen tijekom zadnjih 50 godina, ali olakšanje bi moglo stići iz neočekivanog mjesta -- novog oblika proizvodnje koji niti je ono što ste mislili da je, niti je tamo gdje ste mislili da će biti. Promišljaoc industrijskih sustava Olivier Scalabre iznosi u detalje kako će četvrta revolucija u proizvodnji iznjedriti makroekonomski pomak i povećati zaposlenost, proizvodnost i rast.
Olivier Scalabre - Industrial systems thinker
BCG's Olivier Scalabre analyzes the evolution of large industrial companies' manufacturing footprint and operations. Full bio
BCG's Olivier Scalabre analyzes the evolution of large industrial companies' manufacturing footprint and operations. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Guys, we have an issue.
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Ljudi, imamo problem.
00:16
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:17
Growth is fading away,
and it's a big deal.
and it's a big deal.
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Razvoj usporava, i to je bitno.
00:21
Our global economy stops growing.
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Naša globalna ekonomija prestaje rasti.
00:24
And it's not new.
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I to nije novost.
00:25
Growth has actually declined
for the last 50 years.
for the last 50 years.
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Razvoj zapravo opada zadnjih 50 godina.
00:29
If we continue like this, we need to learn
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Ako nastavimo ovako, moramo naučiti
00:31
how to live in a world
with no growth in the next decade.
with no growth in the next decade.
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kako živjeti u svijetu bez razvoja
tijekom sljedećeg desetljeća.
tijekom sljedećeg desetljeća.
00:36
This is scary because
when the economy doesn't grow,
when the economy doesn't grow,
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Ovo je zastrašujuće jer,
kada ekonomija ne raste,
kada ekonomija ne raste,
00:39
our children don't get better lives.
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naša djeca nemaju bolji život.
00:42
What's even scarier is that
when the pie does not grow,
when the pie does not grow,
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Još je strašnije to što, ukoliko kolač
ne raste,
ne raste,
00:45
each of us get a smaller piece.
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svatko od nas dobija manji komad
00:47
We're then ready to fight
for a bigger one.
for a bigger one.
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Tada smo se spremni boriti za veći.
00:50
This creates tensions
and serious conflicts.
and serious conflicts.
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To uzrokuje napetosti i ozbiljne sukobe.
00:53
Growth matters a lot.
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Rast je jako bitan.
00:57
If we look at the history of growth,
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Ako pogledamo povijest rasta,
00:59
times of big growth
have always been fueled
have always been fueled
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razdoblja velikog rasta su uvijek
bila potaknuta
bila potaknuta
01:02
by big manufacturing revolutions.
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velikim proizvodnim revolucijama.
01:04
It happened three times,
every 50-60 years.
every 50-60 years.
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Dogodilo se tri puta, svakih
50-60 godina.
50-60 godina.
01:08
The steam engine
in the middle of the 19th century,
in the middle of the 19th century,
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Parni stroj sredinom 19. stoljeća,
01:12
the mass-production model
in the beginning of the 20th century --
in the beginning of the 20th century --
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model masovne proizvodnje
početkom 20. stoljeća --
početkom 20. stoljeća --
01:16
thanks, Mr. Ford.
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hvala, gospodine Ford,
01:18
And the first automation
wave in the 1970s.
wave in the 1970s.
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I prvi automatizacijski val
u 1970-ima.
u 1970-ima.
01:22
Why did these manufacturing revolutions
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Zašto su ove revolucije
u proizvodnji
u proizvodnji
01:24
create huge growth in our economies?
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uzrokovale ogroman rast
naših ekonomija?
naših ekonomija?
01:27
Because they have injected
huge productivity improvement.
huge productivity improvement.
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Zato što su ubacile
ogromno poboljšanje proizvodnosti.
ogromno poboljšanje proizvodnosti.
01:31
It's rather simple:
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Prilično je jednostavno:
01:33
in order to grow,
you need to be producing more,
you need to be producing more,
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da bi došlo do rasta,
mora se više proizvoditi,
mora se više proizvoditi,
01:36
putting more into our economy.
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dodavati više u ekonomiju.
01:39
This means either more labor
or more capital or more productivity.
or more capital or more productivity.
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To znači ili više rada
ili više kapitala ili više proizvodnosti.
ili više kapitala ili više proizvodnosti.
01:44
Each time, productivity
has been the growth lever.
has been the growth lever.
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Svaki puta, proizvodnost
je bila poluga rasta.
je bila poluga rasta.
01:49
I'm here today to tell you
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Ja sam ovdje danas
da vam kažem
da vam kažem
01:52
that we are on the verge
of another huge change,
of another huge change,
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da smo na rubu još jedne
velike promjene,
velike promjene,
01:56
and that this change, surprisingly enough,
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koja, za čudo,
01:59
is going to come
from manufacturing, again.
from manufacturing, again.
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opet dolazi iz proizvodnje.
02:03
It will get us out of our growth slump
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Ona će nas izvesti iz
krize rasta
krize rasta
02:06
and it will change radically
the way globalization has been shaped
the way globalization has been shaped
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i radikalno promijeniti način
na koji je globalizacija oblikovana.
na koji je globalizacija oblikovana.
02:10
over the last decade.
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tijekom zadnjeg desetljeća.
02:11
I'm here to tell you about the amazing
fourth manufacturing revolution
fourth manufacturing revolution
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Ovdje sam da vam ispričam o zapanjujućoj
četvrtoj proizvodnoj revoluciji
četvrtoj proizvodnoj revoluciji
02:17
that is currently underway.
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koja je u tijeku.
02:19
It's not as if we've done nothing
with manufacturing
with manufacturing
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Nije da smo završili
sa proizvodnjom
sa proizvodnjom
02:21
since the last revolution.
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od zadnje revolucije.
02:23
Actually, we've made
some pretty lame attempts
some pretty lame attempts
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Zapravo, već smo imali
neke jadne pokušaje
neke jadne pokušaje
02:25
to try to revitalize it.
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da ju oživimo.
02:27
But none of them
have been the big overhaul
have been the big overhaul
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Ali niti jedan nije bio
veliki remont
veliki remont
02:30
we really need to get us growing again.
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potreban da bi opet rasli.
02:32
For example, we've tried
to relocate our factories offshore
to relocate our factories offshore
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Npr., pokušali smo
ih premjestiti offshore
ih premjestiti offshore
02:37
in order to reduce cost
and take advantage of cheap labor.
and take advantage of cheap labor.
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kako bi smanjili troškove
i iskoristili jeftini rad
i iskoristili jeftini rad
02:41
Not only did this not
inspire productivity,
inspire productivity,
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Ne samo da ovo nije
dovelo do proizvodnosti.
dovelo do proizvodnosti.
02:44
but it only saved money
for a short period of time,
for a short period of time,
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već je samo kratkoročno
uštedjelo novac,
uštedjelo novac,
02:47
because cheap labor
didn't stay cheap for long.
didn't stay cheap for long.
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jer jeftini rad nije ostao
jeftinim za dugo.
jeftinim za dugo.
02:50
Then, we've tried to make
our factories larger
our factories larger
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Nakon toga, pokušali smo
sa većim tvornicama
sa većim tvornicama
02:54
and we specialized them by product.
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I specijalizacijom proizvoda.
02:57
The idea was that we can
make a lot of one product
make a lot of one product
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Ideja je bila da možemo dobiti
puno jedne vrste prozvoda
puno jedne vrste prozvoda
03:00
and stockpile it to be sold with demand.
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i imati zalihu za
prodati sa potražnjom.
prodati sa potražnjom.
03:04
This did help productivity for a while.
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To je pomoglo proizvodnosti,
neko vrijeme.
neko vrijeme.
03:06
But it introduced a lot of rigidities
in our supply chain.
in our supply chain.
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Ali je uvelo puno rigidnosti
u opskrbni lanac.
u opskrbni lanac.
03:11
Let's take fashion retail.
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Uznimo modnu maloprodaju
kao primjer.
kao primjer.
03:13
Traditional clothing companies
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Tradicionalne tvrtke koje se bave
odjećom
odjećom
03:15
have built offshore,
global, rigid supply chains.
global, rigid supply chains.
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su izgradile offshore, globalne,
rigidne lance opskrbe.
rigidne lance opskrbe.
03:20
When fast-fashion competitors like Zara
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Kada su tvrtke brze mode,
poput Zare
poput Zare
03:23
started replenishing their stocks faster
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počele nadomjestati svoje
zalihe brže
zalihe brže
03:26
from two collections a year
to one collection a month,
to one collection a month,
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od dvije kolekcije u godini do
jedne u mjesecu,
jedne u mjesecu,
03:29
none of them have been able
to keep up with the pace.
to keep up with the pace.
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nitko nije mogao držati taj tempo.
03:32
Most of them are
in great difficulties today.
in great difficulties today.
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Većina njih danas su u
velikim problemima.
velikim problemima.
03:36
Yet, with all of their shortcomings,
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No, unatoč svim nedostatcima,
03:39
those are the factories we know today.
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to su tvornice kakve znamo danas.
03:41
When you open the doors,
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Kada se otvore vrata,
03:43
they look the same
as they did 50 years ago.
as they did 50 years ago.
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izgledaju isto kao prije
50 godina.
50 godina.
03:46
We've just changed the location,
the size, the way they operate.
the size, the way they operate.
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Samo smo promijenili položaj,
veličinu i način poslovanja.
veličinu i način poslovanja.
03:52
Can you name anything else
that looks the same
that looks the same
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Možete li navesti još nešto
što izgleda isto
što izgleda isto
03:54
as it did 50 years ago?
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kao i prije 50 godina?
03:56
It's crazy.
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To je suludo.
03:57
We've made all the tweaks
to the model that we could,
to the model that we could,
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Prilagodili smo model koliko
smo mogli,
smo mogli,
04:00
and now we hit its limits.
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ali sada smo došli do
granice.
granice.
04:05
After all of our attempts to fix
the manufacturing model failed,
the manufacturing model failed,
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Nakon svih propalih pokušaja
popravka proizvodnog modela,
popravka proizvodnog modela,
04:09
we thought growth could come
from elsewhere.
from elsewhere.
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misilili smo da će razvoj doći
od negdje drugdje.
od negdje drugdje.
04:12
We turned to the tech sector --
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Okrenuli smo se
tehnološkom području --
tehnološkom području --
04:14
there's been quite a lot
of innovations there.
of innovations there.
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tamo je bilo poprilično
puno inovacija.
puno inovacija.
04:17
Just to name one: the Internet.
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Samo da imenujem jednu:
internet.
internet.
04:19
We hoped it could produce growth.
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Nadali smo se da će
dovesta do rasta.
dovesta do rasta.
04:21
And indeed, it changed our lives.
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I stvarno, promijenio nam je živote.
04:24
It made big waves in the media,
the service, the entertainment spaces.
the service, the entertainment spaces.
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Napravio je velike valove
u medijima, usluzi, zabavi
u medijima, usluzi, zabavi
04:29
But it hasn't done much for productivity.
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Ali nije napravio puno za
proizvodnost.
proizvodnost.
04:32
Actually, what's surprising
is that productivity is on the decline
is that productivity is on the decline
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Zapravo, iznenađujuće je da
proizvodnost pada
proizvodnost pada
04:36
despite all of those innovation efforts.
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unatoč svim ovim
inovacijskim naporima.
inovacijskim naporima.
04:39
Imagine that -- sitting at work,
scrolling through Facebook,
scrolling through Facebook,
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Zamislite, pregledavanje Facebooka
na poslu,
na poslu,
04:43
watching videos on YouTube
has made us less productive.
has made us less productive.
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gledanje Youtube videa nas je
napravilo manje produktivnim.
napravilo manje produktivnim.
04:47
Weird.
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Čudno.
04:48
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:49
This is why we are not growing.
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Ovo je zašto nema rasta.
04:52
We failed at reinventing
the manufacturing space,
the manufacturing space,
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Nismo uspjeli obnoviti
prostor proizvodnje,
prostor proizvodnje,
04:55
and large technological innovations
have played away from it.
have played away from it.
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i velike tehnološke inovacije su se
odigrale mimo njega.
odigrale mimo njega.
05:01
But what if we could combine those forces?
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Ali što ako možemo
ujediniti te sile?
ujediniti te sile?
05:03
What if the existing manufacturing
and large technological innovation
and large technological innovation
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Što ako se postojeća proizvodnja
i velika tehnološka inovacija
i velika tehnološka inovacija
05:08
came together to create
the next big manufacturing reinvention.
the next big manufacturing reinvention.
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spoje kako bi stvorile novu proizvodnju?
05:13
Bingo!
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Pogodak!
05:14
This is the fourth
manufacturing revolution,
manufacturing revolution,
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Ovo je četvrta revolucija
u proizvodnji
u proizvodnji
05:17
and it's happening right now.
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i događa se sada.
05:19
Major technologies are entering
the manufacturing space,
the manufacturing space,
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Značajne tehnologije ulaze u
proizvodni prostor,
proizvodni prostor,
05:22
big time.
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i to naveliko.
05:24
They will boost industrial productivity
by more than a third.
by more than a third.
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To će unaprijediti industrijsku
proizvodnost za više od trećine
proizvodnost za više od trećine
05:28
This is massive, and it will do
a lot in creating growth.
a lot in creating growth.
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Ovo je značajno, i dovesti će
do rasta.
do rasta.
05:33
Let me tell you about some of them.
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Dopustite da vam spomenem
nekoliko.
nekoliko.
05:36
Have you already met advanced
manufacturing robots?
manufacturing robots?
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Jeste li se već susreli sa naprednim
robotima u proizvodnji?
robotima u proizvodnji?
05:39
They are the size of humans,
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Veliki su kao ljudi,
05:41
they actually collaborate with them,
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zapravo surađuju sa njma.
05:43
and they can be programmed
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mogu se programirati
05:45
in order to perform
complex, non-repetitive tasks.
complex, non-repetitive tasks.
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kako bi izveli složene zadatke
koje se ne ponavljaju.
koje se ne ponavljaju.
05:49
Today in our factories, only
8 percent of the tasks are automated.
8 percent of the tasks are automated.
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U današnjim tvornicama, samo 8%
zadataka je automatizirano.
zadataka je automatizirano.
05:54
The less complex,
the more repetitive ones.
the more repetitive ones.
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Manje složeni i oni
koji se više ponavljaju.
koji se više ponavljaju.
05:58
It will be 25 percent in 10 years.
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To će biti 25% za 10 godina.
06:01
It means that by 2025,
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Znači, do 2025.,
06:04
advanced robots will complement workers
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napredni roboti će
nadopunjavati radnike
nadopunjavati radnike
06:06
to be, together,
20 percent more productive,
20 percent more productive,
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da bi, zajedno, bili 20%
produktivniji,
produktivniji,
06:09
to manufacture 20 percent more outputs,
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da bi imali 20% veći
proizvodni output,
proizvodni output,
06:11
to achieve 20 percent additional growth.
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da bi postigli 20-postotni dodatni rast.
06:15
This isn't some fancy, futuristic idea.
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Ovo nije neka zamišljena
ideja iz budućnosti.
ideja iz budućnosti.
06:18
These robots are working for us right now.
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Ti roboti rade za nas upravo sada.
06:21
Last year in the US, they helped
Amazon prepare and ship all the products
Amazon prepare and ship all the products
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Prošle godine u SAD-u, pomogli su Amazonu
da pripremi i pošalje sve proizvode
da pripremi i pošalje sve proizvode
06:27
required for Cyber Monday,
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za Cyber Monday,
06:29
the annual peak of online retail.
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godišnji vrhunac online prodaje.
06:32
Last year in the US,
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Prošle godine u SAD-u
06:34
it was the biggest online shopping day
of the year and of history.
of the year and of history.
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to je bio najveći dan u godini
i povijesti za online kupovinu
i povijesti za online kupovinu
06:40
Consumers spent 3 billion dollars
on electronics that day.
on electronics that day.
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Potrošači su potrošili 3 milijarde dolara
na elektroniku.
na elektroniku.
06:44
That's real economic growth.
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To je stvarni ekonomski rast.
06:47
Then there's additive
manufacturing, 3D printing.
manufacturing, 3D printing.
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A tu je i aditivna proizvodnja,
3D printanje.
3D printanje.
06:51
3D printing has already improved
plastic manufacturing
plastic manufacturing
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3D printanje je već unaprijedilo
proizvodnju plastike.
proizvodnju plastike.
06:55
and it's now making its way through metal.
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A sada to isto radi sa metalom.
06:58
Those are not small industries.
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To nisu zanemarive industrije.
07:00
Plastic and metals represent 25 percent
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Plastika i metal
predstavljaju 25 posto
predstavljaju 25 posto
07:03
of global manufacturing production.
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svjetskog procesa proizvodnje.
07:06
Let's take a real example.
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Uzmimo primjer iz života.
07:09
In the aerospace industry,
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Unutar zračne industrije,
07:11
fuel nozzles are some of the most
complex parts to manufacture,
complex parts to manufacture,
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mlaznice za gorivo su među
složenijim dijelovima za proizvesti
složenijim dijelovima za proizvesti
07:16
for one reason:
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iz jednog razloga:
07:17
they are made up of 20 different parts
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sastoje se od dvadeset
različitih dijelova
različitih dijelova
07:21
that need to be separately produced
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koji se moraju
odvojeno proizvesti
odvojeno proizvesti
07:23
and then painstakingly assembled.
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a onda pomno sastaviti.
07:27
Aerospace companies
are now using 3D printing,
are now using 3D printing,
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Zračne kompanije sada koriste
3D printanje
3D printanje
07:30
which allows them to turn
those 20 different parts
those 20 different parts
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pomoću kojega mogu tih 20
različitih dijelova
različitih dijelova
07:33
into just one.
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zamijeniti za samo jedan.
07:35
The results?
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Rezultati?
07:36
40 percent more productivity,
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Produktivnost je viša za 40 posto.
07:39
40 percent more output produced,
40 percent more growth
40 percent more growth
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40 posto više outputa,
40 posto viša stopa rasta
40 posto viša stopa rasta
07:42
for this specific industry.
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za ovu industriju.
07:45
But actually, the most exciting part
of this new manufacturing revolution
of this new manufacturing revolution
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Ali, najuzbudljiviji dio ove nove
proizvodne revolucije
proizvodne revolucije
07:51
goes much beyond productivity.
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leži izvan same proizvodnosti.
07:54
It's about producing better,
smarter products.
smarter products.
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Riječ je o proizvodnji
boljih, pametnijih proizvoda.
boljih, pametnijih proizvoda.
07:58
It's about scale customization.
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Riječ je o mogućnosti prilagodbe.
08:01
Imagine a world where you can buy
the exact products you want
the exact products you want
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Zamislite svijet u kojem možete kupiti
proizvod kakkvog baš želite
proizvod kakkvog baš želite
08:05
with the functionalities you need,
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sa funkcionalnostima koje
vam trebaju,
vam trebaju,
08:08
with the design you want,
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dizajnom kakvog želite
08:10
with the same cost and lead time
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sa istom cijenom i rokom
08:11
as a product that's been mass produced,
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koji ima proizvod koji je
masovno proizveden.
masovno proizveden.
08:13
like your car, or your clothes
or your cell phone.
or your cell phone.
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kao što je vaš auto, odjeća
ili mobilni telefon.
ili mobilni telefon.
08:17
The new manufacturing revolution
makes it possible.
makes it possible.
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Nova revolucija u proizvodnji
to čini mogućim.
to čini mogućim.
08:20
Advanced robots can be programmed
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Napredni roboti mogu biti
programirani
programirani
08:23
in order to perform
any product configuration
any product configuration
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kako bi izveli bilo koju
konfiguraciju proizvoda
konfiguraciju proizvoda
08:26
without any setup time or ramp up.
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bez čekanja na pripremu ili početak rada.
08:29
3D printers instantaneously produce
any customized design.
any customized design.
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3D printeri odmah proizvode
svaki dizajn prilagođen korisniku.
svaki dizajn prilagođen korisniku.
08:35
We are now able to produce
a batch of one product, your product,
a batch of one product, your product,
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Sada možemo proizvesti jednu grupu
proizvoda, vašeg proizvoda
proizvoda, vašeg proizvoda
08:41
at the same cost and lead time
as a batch of many.
as a batch of many.
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po istoj cijeni i unutar istog intervala
kao grupu različitih.
kao grupu različitih.
08:45
Those are only a few examples
of the manufacturing revolution at play.
of the manufacturing revolution at play.
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To je samo par primjera
revolucije u proizvodnji koja je na djelu.
revolucije u proizvodnji koja je na djelu.
08:50
Not only will manufacturing
become more productive,
become more productive,
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Ne samo da će prozivodnja
postati produktivnija,
postati produktivnija,
08:54
it will also become more flexible,
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nego i fleksibilnija,
08:57
and those were exactly the elements
of growth that we are missing.
of growth that we are missing.
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a upravo to su elementi rasta
koji su nedostajali.
koji su nedostajali.
09:03
But actually, there are even
some bigger implications
some bigger implications
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Ali postoje i značajnije
posljedice.
posljedice.
09:06
for all of us when manufacturing
will find its way back into the limelight.
will find its way back into the limelight.
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za sve nas,
kada se proizvodnja vrati u centar pažnje
kada se proizvodnja vrati u centar pažnje
09:12
It will create a huge macroeconomic shift.
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to će stvoriti veliki
makroekonomski pomak.
makroekonomski pomak.
09:16
First, our factories will be relocated
into our home markets.
into our home markets.
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Prvo, tvornice će biti premještene
na domaća tržišta.
na domaća tržišta.
09:21
In the world of scale customization,
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U svijetu prilagođenosti korisniku
09:24
consumer proximity is the new norm.
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blizina potrošača je novo pravilo.
09:27
Then, our factories
will be smaller, agile.
will be smaller, agile.
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Nakon toga, naše tvornice će biti
manje, agilne.
manje, agilne.
09:31
Scale does not matter anymore,
flexibility does.
flexibility does.
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Opseg više nije bitan,
bitna je fleksibilnost.
bitna je fleksibilnost.
09:35
They will be operating on a multi-product,
made-to-order basis.
made-to-order basis.
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Raditi će na bazi izrađenog
po mjeri multi proizvoda.
po mjeri multi proizvoda.
09:39
The change will be drastic.
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Promjena će biti korjenita.
09:42
Globalization will enter a new era.
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Globalizacija će ući u novo doba.
09:47
The East-to-West trade flows
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Istok prema Zapadu tijek trgovine
09:50
will be replaced by regional trade flows.
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biti će zamijenjen regionalnim
tijekom trgovine.
tijekom trgovine.
09:52
East for East, West for West.
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Istok za Istok, Zapad za Zapad.
09:55
When you think about that,
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Kada malo razmislite,
09:57
the old model was pretty much insane.
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stari model je sulud.
10:01
Piling up stocks, making products
travel the whole world
travel the whole world
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Gomilanje zaliha, izrada proizvoda
koji putuju preko cijelog svijeta
koji putuju preko cijelog svijeta
10:04
before they reach their end consumers.
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prije nego dosegnu
krajnjeg korisnika
krajnjeg korisnika
10:06
The new model, producing
just next to the consumer market,
just next to the consumer market,
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U novom modelu, proizvodnja
odmah pored potrošačkog tržišta
odmah pored potrošačkog tržišta
10:11
will be much cleaner,
much better for our environment.
much better for our environment.
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biti će puno čišća,
puno bolja za naš okoliš.
puno bolja za naš okoliš.
10:16
In mature economies,
manufacturing will be back home,
manufacturing will be back home,
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U zrelim ekonomijama,
proizvodnja će se vratiti kući,
proizvodnja će se vratiti kući,
10:20
creating more employment,
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stvarajući nova zaposlenja,
10:22
more productivity and more growth.
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više proizvodnosti i više rasta.
10:25
Good news, isn't it?
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Dobre vijesti, zar ne?
10:28
But here's the thing with growth --
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Ali ima jedna kvaka sa rastom - -
10:30
it does not come automatically.
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ne dolazi sam po sebi.
10:32
Mature economies will have to seize it.
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Zrele ekonomije ga moraju dosegnuti.
10:35
We'll have to massively
re-train our workforce.
re-train our workforce.
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Morati ćemo znatno
preškolovati svoju radnu snagu.
preškolovati svoju radnu snagu.
10:38
In most countries,
like in my country, France,
like in my country, France,
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U većini zemalja,
kao u mojoj zemlji, Francuskoj,
kao u mojoj zemlji, Francuskoj,
10:41
we've told our children
that manufacturing had no future.
that manufacturing had no future.
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rekli smo svojoj djeci
da proizvodnja nema budućnosti.
da proizvodnja nema budućnosti.
10:44
That it was something happening far away.
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Da je to nešto što se događa daleko.
10:46
We need to reverse that
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Sada to moramo ispraviti
10:48
and teach manufacturing again
at university.
at university.
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i opet podučavati proizvodnju na
sveučilištima.
sveučilištima.
10:51
Only the countries
that will boldly transform
that will boldly transform
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Samo će zemlje koje se hrabro
preoblikuju
preoblikuju
10:54
will be able to seize this growth.
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moći uhvatiti ovaj rast.
10:58
It's also a chance
for developing economies.
for developing economies.
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To je ujedno i šansa
za nerazvijene zemlje.
za nerazvijene zemlje.
11:02
Of course China
and other emerging economies
and other emerging economies
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Naravno da Kina i druge
ekonomije u nastajanju
ekonomije u nastajanju
11:06
won't be the factory of the world anymore.
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više neće biti tvornicom svijeta.
11:09
Actually, it was not a sustainable
model in the long term,
model in the long term,
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Dugoročno, to nije bio
održiv model,
održiv model,
11:14
as those countries are becoming richer.
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kako te zemlje postaju sve bogatije.
11:17
Last year, it was already
as expensive to produce in Brazil
as expensive to produce in Brazil
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Prošle godine, bilo je skoro
jednako skupo proizvoditi u Brazilu
jednako skupo proizvoditi u Brazilu
11:22
as to produce in France.
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kao u Francuskoj.
11:26
By 2018, manufacturing costs in China
will be on par with the US.
will be on par with the US.
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Do 2018, troškovi proizvodnje u Kini
bit će jednaki onima u SAD-u.
bit će jednaki onima u SAD-u.
11:33
The new manufacturing revolution
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Nova revolucija proizvodnje
11:35
will accelerate the transition
of those emerging economies
of those emerging economies
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će ubrzati prijelaz tih
ekonomija u nastajanju
ekonomija u nastajanju
11:40
towards a model driven
by domestic consumption.
by domestic consumption.
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prema modelu domaće potrošnje.
11:43
And this is good,
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I to je dobro,
11:44
because this is where growth
will be created.
will be created.
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jer će stvoriti rast.
11:47
In the next five years,
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U sljedećih pet godina,
11:49
the next billion consumers in China
will inject more growth in our economies
will inject more growth in our economies
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sljedećih milijarda potrošača u Kini
će ubrizgati više rasta u naše ekonomije
će ubrizgati više rasta u naše ekonomije
11:54
than the top five
European markets together.
European markets together.
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nego top 5 euro-tržišta zajedno.
11:59
This fourth manufacturing revolution
is a chance for all of us.
is a chance for all of us.
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Četvrta proizvodna revolucija
je prilika za sve nas.
je prilika za sve nas.
12:05
If we play it right,
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Ako to odigramo kako treba,
12:07
we'll see sustainable growth
in all of our economies.
in all of our economies.
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vidjeti ćemo održiv rast
u svim našim ekonomijama.
u svim našim ekonomijama.
12:10
This means more wealth
distributed to all of us
distributed to all of us
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To znači više blagostanja,
razdijeljenog među nama
razdijeljenog među nama
12:14
and a better future for our children.
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i bolju budućnost za našu djecu.
12:17
Thank you.
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Hvala.
12:18
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Olivier Scalabre - Industrial systems thinkerBCG's Olivier Scalabre analyzes the evolution of large industrial companies' manufacturing footprint and operations.
Why you should listen
Olivier Scalabre heads BCG's Operations Practice for Western Europe, North Africa and South America. In the last three years, he launched BCG Ops Centers serving regions out of Paris, London, and Sao Paolo via 100 experts dedicated to manufacturing, supply chain, procurement and services operations across industries. As part of his career at BCG, Scalabre has worked both in mature and emerging markets, most notably out of the BCG New Delhi and BCG Paris offices.
As a senior partner, Scalabre supports large operations programs for industrial goods clients in multiple sectors. He is also responsible for the overall BCG relationship with clients focused on large-scale engineered products and projects.
Scalabre is a member of the management team of the BCG Paris Office. He is an engineer and studied at École Centrale Paris.
Olivier Scalabre | Speaker | TED.com