TED@BCG Paris
Olivier Scalabre: The next manufacturing revolution is here
奧利維 斯加拉貝: 下一個工業上的紀元已經到來。
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經濟增速在過去的50年間持續放緩，但是解決辦法可能會使你意想不到－一種你想不到也猜不到新的生產方式。工業系統研發者 奧利維 斯加拉貝講述了第四次工業革命將怎樣製造下一個經濟增速伴隨著產能提升，促進就業，以及增長。
Olivier Scalabre - Industrial systems thinker
BCG's Olivier Scalabre analyzes the evolution of large industrial companies' manufacturing footprint and operations. Full bio
BCG's Olivier Scalabre analyzes the evolution of large industrial companies' manufacturing footprint and operations. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Guys, we have an issue.
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我們現在有一個問題。
00:16
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
00:17
Growth is fading away,
and it's a big deal.
and it's a big deal.
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增長正在放緩，這將是一個巨大的問題。
00:21
Our global economy stops growing.
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全球經濟已經停止增長。
00:24
And it's not new.
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這不是什麼新消息。
00:25
Growth has actually declined
for the last 50 years.
for the last 50 years.
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經濟增長其實在過去的五十年裡
就已經開始放緩。
就已經開始放緩。
00:29
If we continue like this, we need to learn
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如果我們繼續這樣下去，
我們需要來學習
我們需要來學習
00:31
how to live in a world
with no growth in the next decade.
with no growth in the next decade.
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如何在數十年的經濟停滯中生活。
00:36
This is scary because
when the economy doesn't grow,
when the economy doesn't grow,
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這很恐怖，因為當經濟停滯增長時，
00:39
our children don't get better lives.
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我們的孩子們就沒法有更好的生活。
00:42
What's even scarier is that
when the pie does not grow,
when the pie does not grow,
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更恐怖的是，當餡餅停止增長時
00:45
each of us get a smaller piece.
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每個人可以得到的餡餅也會減少。
00:47
We're then ready to fight
for a bigger one.
for a bigger one.
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屆時，我們就會有爭端。
00:50
This creates tensions
and serious conflicts.
and serious conflicts.
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這將會造成嚴重的分歧
以及緊張的局勢。
以及緊張的局勢。
00:53
Growth matters a lot.
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經濟增長意義重大。
00:57
If we look at the history of growth,
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如果我們回顧以前的增長，
00:59
times of big growth
have always been fueled
have always been fueled
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那些大型的增長總是
01:02
by big manufacturing revolutions.
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以大型的工業革命為動力推動的。
01:04
It happened three times,
every 50-60 years.
every 50-60 years.
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它發生過三次，
每次間隔五到六十年。
每次間隔五到六十年。
01:08
The steam engine
in the middle of the 19th century,
in the middle of the 19th century,
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十九世紀中的蒸汽機，
01:12
the mass-production model
in the beginning of the 20th century --
in the beginning of the 20th century --
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二十世紀初的量產化，
01:16
thanks, Mr. Ford.
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感謝福特先生的貢獻。
01:18
And the first automation
wave in the 1970s.
wave in the 1970s.
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另外還有1970年代的自動化進程。
01:22
Why did these manufacturing revolutions
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為什麼這些生產業的革命
01:24
create huge growth in our economies?
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製造了巨大的經濟增長？
01:27
Because they have injected
huge productivity improvement.
huge productivity improvement.
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因為它們令我們的
經濟増加了巨大的生產力。
經濟増加了巨大的生產力。
01:31
It's rather simple:
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簡單說就是，
01:33
in order to grow,
you need to be producing more,
you need to be producing more,
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要使經濟增長，就要製造更多，
01:36
putting more into our economy.
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投入更多東西進入我們的經濟。
01:39
This means either more labor
or more capital or more productivity.
or more capital or more productivity.
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這意味著更多工人，
更多資本，或者更多生產力。
更多資本，或者更多生產力。
01:44
Each time, productivity
has been the growth lever.
has been the growth lever.
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每一次，生產力都是經濟的推動者。
01:49
I'm here today to tell you
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今天，我要在這裡向你們講述
01:52
that we are on the verge
of another huge change,
of another huge change,
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我們現在站在下一個
巨大變革的邊緣
巨大變革的邊緣
01:56
and that this change, surprisingly enough,
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這個變革，
01:59
is going to come
from manufacturing, again.
from manufacturing, again.
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將再一次從工業生產發起。
02:03
It will get us out of our growth slump
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這將扭轉我們經濟的放緩
02:06
and it will change radically
the way globalization has been shaped
the way globalization has been shaped
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這次劇變會從根本上改變我們已有的全球化
02:10
over the last decade.
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經過過去十年
02:11
I'm here to tell you about the amazing
fourth manufacturing revolution
fourth manufacturing revolution
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現在我要講述目前正在發生的
02:17
that is currently underway.
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第四次工業革命
02:19
It's not as if we've done nothing
with manufacturing
with manufacturing
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這並不意味著自上次工業革命以來
02:21
since the last revolution.
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我們的工業毫無技術增長
02:23
Actually, we've made
some pretty lame attempts
some pretty lame attempts
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事實上 我們做了幾次嘗試
02:25
to try to revitalize it.
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企圖重振工業
02:27
But none of them
have been the big overhaul
have been the big overhaul
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但成效甚微
02:30
we really need to get us growing again.
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不足以讓經濟復甦。
02:32
For example, we've tried
to relocate our factories offshore
to relocate our factories offshore
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比方說 ，我們曾試圖將工廠遷至海外
02:37
in order to reduce cost
and take advantage of cheap labor.
and take advantage of cheap labor.
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利用當地廉價勞動力從而降低成本
02:41
Not only did this not
inspire productivity,
inspire productivity,
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但這卻沒有提高勞動力，
02:44
but it only saved money
for a short period of time,
for a short period of time,
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反而只在短期內節省了成本
02:47
because cheap labor
didn't stay cheap for long.
didn't stay cheap for long.
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因為廉價勞動力不會永遠廉價。
02:50
Then, we've tried to make
our factories larger
our factories larger
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此後，我們還企圖擴大產業鏈
02:54
and we specialized them by product.
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對每種產品進行專門化生產
02:57
The idea was that we can
make a lot of one product
make a lot of one product
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這個想法基於
我們可以只做一種產品
我們可以只做一種產品
03:00
and stockpile it to be sold with demand.
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囤積起來以滿足需求。
03:04
This did help productivity for a while.
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這個做法確實在
一段時間內提高了產能
一段時間內提高了產能
03:06
But it introduced a lot of rigidities
in our supply chain.
in our supply chain.
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但它讓我們的生產方式非常死板。
03:11
Let's take fashion retail.
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以服飾時尚零售業為例，
03:13
Traditional clothing companies
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傳統的服裝企業
03:15
have built offshore,
global, rigid supply chains.
global, rigid supply chains.
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在海外設立全球化工廠
生產鏈不易變通。
生產鏈不易變通。
03:20
When fast-fashion competitors like Zara
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當像Zara等快時尚品牌
03:23
started replenishing their stocks faster
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為加快存貨周轉率
03:26
from two collections a year
to one collection a month,
to one collection a month,
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從一年兩個時裝系列
提高到一個月一次。
提高到一個月一次。
03:29
none of them have been able
to keep up with the pace.
to keep up with the pace.
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傳統的服裝企業都跟不上其節奏
03:32
Most of them are
in great difficulties today.
in great difficulties today.
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致使它們中的絶大多數
如今都陷入危機
如今都陷入危機
03:36
Yet, with all of their shortcomings,
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但是儘管有這些缺點
03:39
those are the factories we know today.
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這些企業都依然很有名。
03:41
When you open the doors,
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當你去看這些品牌與其工廠時
03:43
they look the same
as they did 50 years ago.
as they did 50 years ago.
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你會發現它們和50
年前一模一樣，
年前一模一樣，
03:46
We've just changed the location,
the size, the way they operate.
the size, the way they operate.
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僅僅變換了工廠的位置，
大小和運作方式
大小和運作方式
03:52
Can you name anything else
that looks the same
that looks the same
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你們還能列舉出其它
03:54
as it did 50 years ago?
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和50年前一樣不變的例子嗎？
03:56
It's crazy.
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這很瘋狂。
03:57
We've made all the tweaks
to the model that we could,
to the model that we could,
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我們已盡我們所能對其模式進行調整
04:00
and now we hit its limits.
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目前已經達到了極限，
04:05
After all of our attempts to fix
the manufacturing model failed,
the manufacturing model failed,
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在對修補工業生產模式
做出的努力都失敗後，
做出的努力都失敗後，
04:09
we thought growth could come
from elsewhere.
from elsewhere.
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我們猜測經濟增長或許來自其他地方
04:12
We turned to the tech sector --
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我們轉向研究科技行業
04:14
there's been quite a lot
of innovations there.
of innovations there.
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那裡有大量的創新
04:17
Just to name one: the Internet.
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比如，互聯網
04:19
We hoped it could produce growth.
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我們希望網絡能夠帶來增長
04:21
And indeed, it changed our lives.
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事實上 它改變了我們的生活
04:24
It made big waves in the media,
the service, the entertainment spaces.
the service, the entertainment spaces.
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它對傳媒業，
服務業和娛樂產業都帶來了巨大影響
服務業和娛樂產業都帶來了巨大影響
04:29
But it hasn't done much for productivity.
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但是它並未對生產力本身帶來多大改變
04:32
Actually, what's surprising
is that productivity is on the decline
is that productivity is on the decline
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實際上，令人驚異的是生產力卻一直在下降
04:36
despite all of those innovation efforts.
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儘管有這麼多的努力去創新。
04:39
Imagine that -- sitting at work,
scrolling through Facebook,
scrolling through Facebook,
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想像一下，上班時候看看臉書
04:43
watching videos on YouTube
has made us less productive.
has made us less productive.
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在YouTube上看看視頻，這些都令生產力下降
04:47
Weird.
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奇怪吧？
04:48
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
04:49
This is why we are not growing.
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這就是為什麼經濟未能增長
04:52
We failed at reinventing
the manufacturing space,
the manufacturing space,
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我們未能重新定義工業領域
04:55
and large technological innovations
have played away from it.
have played away from it.
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與此同時大型技術創新卻與之相背
05:01
But what if we could combine those forces?
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但如果我們把這些力量結合起來，
會發生什麼？
會發生什麼？
05:03
What if the existing manufacturing
and large technological innovation
and large technological innovation
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將當下的工業與大型技術創新結合起來
05:08
came together to create
the next big manufacturing reinvention.
the next big manufacturing reinvention.
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會不會引發下一次大型工業革命？
05:13
Bingo!
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就是這樣！
05:14
This is the fourth
manufacturing revolution,
manufacturing revolution,
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這就是第四次工業革命
05:17
and it's happening right now.
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它正在發生
05:19
Major technologies are entering
the manufacturing space,
the manufacturing space,
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重大技術革新正在進入工業領域
05:22
big time.
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這是劃時代！
05:24
They will boost industrial productivity
by more than a third.
by more than a third.
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它將會使生產力提高超過三分之一
05:28
This is massive, and it will do
a lot in creating growth.
a lot in creating growth.
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這個增長相當大，
並且它將引發經濟的增長。
並且它將引發經濟的增長。
05:33
Let me tell you about some of them.
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舉幾個例子，
05:36
Have you already met advanced
manufacturing robots?
manufacturing robots?
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不知在座各位
知不知道高級工業機器人？
知不知道高級工業機器人？
05:39
They are the size of humans,
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它們和人類大小相仿
05:41
they actually collaborate with them,
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可以和人合作
05:43
and they can be programmed
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可以通過設定好的程序
05:45
in order to perform
complex, non-repetitive tasks.
complex, non-repetitive tasks.
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來執行複雜的，非重複性的任務
05:49
Today in our factories, only
8 percent of the tasks are automated.
8 percent of the tasks are automated.
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現在，在我們的工廠裡
只有百分之八的任務是自動化的
只有百分之八的任務是自動化的
05:54
The less complex,
the more repetitive ones.
the more repetitive ones.
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並且是那些不是很複雜，且重複性很強的任務
05:58
It will be 25 percent in 10 years.
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在未來十年內這一數字會增長百分之二十五。
06:01
It means that by 2025,
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這意味著到2025年
06:04
advanced robots will complement workers
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機器人將與工人互補
06:06
to be, together,
20 percent more productive,
20 percent more productive,
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生產效率將提升20%
06:09
to manufacture 20 percent more outputs,
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從而生產力也提升20%
06:11
to achieve 20 percent additional growth.
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經濟増長提高20%
06:15
This isn't some fancy, futuristic idea.
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這並不是假想。
06:18
These robots are working for us right now.
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這些機器人現在就在為我們工作。
06:21
Last year in the US, they helped
Amazon prepare and ship all the products
Amazon prepare and ship all the products
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去年，美國亞馬遜用機器人來發貨。
06:27
required for Cyber Monday,
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以應對賽博週一
06:29
the annual peak of online retail.
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線上零售消費高峰。
06:32
Last year in the US,
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那是去年在美國
06:34
it was the biggest online shopping day
of the year and of history.
of the year and of history.
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有史以來最大的線上購物日。
06:40
Consumers spent 3 billion dollars
on electronics that day.
on electronics that day.
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消費者那天在網絡上共支出30億美元
06:44
That's real economic growth.
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那是實實在在的經濟增長
06:47
Then there's additive
manufacturing, 3D printing.
manufacturing, 3D printing.
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此外，還有工業的3D打印技術
06:51
3D printing has already improved
plastic manufacturing
plastic manufacturing
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3D打印已經改善了塑料行業
06:55
and it's now making its way through metal.
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目前它正向鋼鐵行業進發。
06:58
Those are not small industries.
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塑料和鋼鐵都不是小型行業。
07:00
Plastic and metals represent 25 percent
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它們占全球
07:03
of global manufacturing production.
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工業生產的25%。
07:06
Let's take a real example.
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讓我們看一個
07:09
In the aerospace industry,
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航天領域的真實例子。
07:11
fuel nozzles are some of the most
complex parts to manufacture,
complex parts to manufacture,
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燃油噴嘴是最難生產的附件之一。
07:16
for one reason:
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因為，
07:17
they are made up of 20 different parts
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它由20種不同部件組成
07:21
that need to be separately produced
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並且它們需要獨立生產
07:23
and then painstakingly assembled.
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組裝時也很複雜費時
07:27
Aerospace companies
are now using 3D printing,
are now using 3D printing,
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航空公司現在採用3D打印技術
07:30
which allows them to turn
those 20 different parts
those 20 different parts
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這類技術可以讓它們
從需要生產20種不同部件
從需要生產20種不同部件
07:33
into just one.
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變為只生產一種。
07:35
The results?
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結果呢？
07:36
40 percent more productivity,
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生產力提高了百分之四十
07:39
40 percent more output produced,
40 percent more growth
40 percent more growth
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出產量提高了百分之四十
經濟增長加快了百分之四十
經濟增長加快了百分之四十
07:42
for this specific industry.
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僅僅是因為該工業內的一點改變
07:45
But actually, the most exciting part
of this new manufacturing revolution
of this new manufacturing revolution
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但事實上，
這次新工業革命最激動人心的地方
這次新工業革命最激動人心的地方
07:51
goes much beyond productivity.
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遠不止生產效率的提高
07:54
It's about producing better,
smarter products.
smarter products.
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還有生產質量更優，
更為精細的產品
更為精細的產品
07:58
It's about scale customization.
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還有批量定製
08:01
Imagine a world where you can buy
the exact products you want
the exact products you want
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想像一下 你可以買到
符合你所有需求的產品。
符合你所有需求的產品。
08:05
with the functionalities you need,
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它有著你所需的功能
08:08
with the design you want,
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有你想要的設計
08:10
with the same cost and lead time
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但卻和大規模生產出的產品
08:11
as a product that's been mass produced,
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在價位與訂貨交付時間上相差無幾
08:13
like your car, or your clothes
or your cell phone.
or your cell phone.
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你可以買到你所定製的車，
衣服，甚至是手機
衣服，甚至是手機
08:17
The new manufacturing revolution
makes it possible.
makes it possible.
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這次新工業革命讓這一切變得可能
08:20
Advanced robots can be programmed
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我們可以通過對高級機器人編程
08:23
in order to perform
any product configuration
any product configuration
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去完成任何產品配置
08:26
without any setup time or ramp up.
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並無安裝時間、緩衝
08:29
3D printers instantaneously produce
any customized design.
any customized design.
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3D打印機可以即刻
生產任何定做的設計品
生產任何定做的設計品
08:35
We are now able to produce
a batch of one product, your product,
a batch of one product, your product,
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現今 我們可以以大批手生產所需
的成本及訂貨交付時間
的成本及訂貨交付時間
08:41
at the same cost and lead time
as a batch of many.
as a batch of many.
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來生產一個僅屬於你的產品。
08:45
Those are only a few examples
of the manufacturing revolution at play.
of the manufacturing revolution at play.
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這些僅僅是當下工業革命的幾個例子
08:50
Not only will manufacturing
become more productive,
become more productive,
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不僅生產率更高
08:54
it will also become more flexible,
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同時製造業還變得更具彈性。
08:57
and those were exactly the elements
of growth that we are missing.
of growth that we are missing.
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而這些恰恰是我們缺少的增長要素
09:03
But actually, there are even
some bigger implications
some bigger implications
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但實際上，傳統製造業重回聚光燈下
09:06
for all of us when manufacturing
will find its way back into the limelight.
will find its way back into the limelight.
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對我們所有人而言還有更深層次的意義
09:12
It will create a huge macroeconomic shift.
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它會帶來大型的宏觀經濟轉變。
09:16
First, our factories will be relocated
into our home markets.
into our home markets.
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首先，我們的工廠將會遷入社區
09:21
In the world of scale customization,
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在大規模訂製的情況下
09:24
consumer proximity is the new norm.
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小微客戶將會變成新的模手式
09:27
Then, our factories
will be smaller, agile.
will be smaller, agile.
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第二，我們的工廠會變得更小、更靈活
09:31
Scale does not matter anymore,
flexibility does.
flexibility does.
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批量化不再重要，彈性將取而代之
09:35
They will be operating on a multi-product,
made-to-order basis.
made-to-order basis.
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工廠將會基於多產品及訂製的基礎上生產
09:39
The change will be drastic.
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這將是個劇變。
09:42
Globalization will enter a new era.
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全球化將進入一個新紀元
09:47
The East-to-West trade flows
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由東至西的貿易流動，
09:50
will be replaced by regional trade flows.
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將會被本土地區化的貿易往來取締。
09:52
East for East, West for West.
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東部供給東部 西部供給西部
09:55
When you think about that,
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再迴首看看過去的生產模式
09:57
the old model was pretty much insane.
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就會發現它有些瘋狂
10:01
Piling up stocks, making products
travel the whole world
travel the whole world
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囤積存貨 在產品達到客戶手上之前
10:04
before they reach their end consumers.
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讓它們經歷一次世界旅行。
10:06
The new model, producing
just next to the consumer market,
just next to the consumer market,
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這種在客戶市場附近
生產銷售的新生產模式，
生產銷售的新生產模式，
10:11
will be much cleaner,
much better for our environment.
much better for our environment.
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將會更為清潔 對環境影響更小
10:16
In mature economies,
manufacturing will be back home,
manufacturing will be back home,
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在成熟經濟裡 製造業將回歸家庭。
10:20
creating more employment,
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這將創造就業
10:22
more productivity and more growth.
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提高生產率，推動經濟發展。
10:25
Good news, isn't it?
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好消息 不是嗎？
10:28
But here's the thing with growth --
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但問題在於，
10:30
it does not come automatically.
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經濟發展並不是自然而然就有了的。
10:32
Mature economies will have to seize it.
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成熟經濟體需要抓住經濟發展機遇。
10:35
We'll have to massively
re-train our workforce.
re-train our workforce.
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我們必須對勞動力進行大規模的再培訓。
10:38
In most countries,
like in my country, France,
like in my country, France,
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在絶大多數國家
比如我的國家 法國
比如我的國家 法國
10:41
we've told our children
that manufacturing had no future.
that manufacturing had no future.
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我們這樣告訴孩子們，
製造業是沒有前途的。
製造業是沒有前途的。
10:44
That it was something happening far away.
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並且很早以前就是這樣了，
10:46
We need to reverse that
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我們必須改變這一觀念。
10:48
and teach manufacturing again
at university.
at university.
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在大學裡重新教授製造業課程，
10:51
Only the countries
that will boldly transform
that will boldly transform
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只有完成大膽創新的國家，
10:54
will be able to seize this growth.
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才能夠抓住這次經濟發展機會。
10:58
It's also a chance
for developing economies.
for developing economies.
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同時，這對發展中國家而言也是一個機遇。
11:02
Of course China
and other emerging economies
and other emerging economies
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中國和其他發展中國家，
11:06
won't be the factory of the world anymore.
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不再會是世界工廠。
11:09
Actually, it was not a sustainable
model in the long term,
model in the long term,
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實際上，隨著這些國家變得更為富有，
11:14
as those countries are becoming richer.
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這從長期來看也不是一個可持續發展模式。
11:17
Last year, it was already
as expensive to produce in Brazil
as expensive to produce in Brazil
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去年，巴西的生產成本
11:22
as to produce in France.
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已經與法國持平。
11:26
By 2018, manufacturing costs in China
will be on par with the US.
will be on par with the US.
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到2018年，中國的生產成本也將追上美國。
11:33
The new manufacturing revolution
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第四次工業革命
11:35
will accelerate the transition
of those emerging economies
of those emerging economies
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將會推動發展中國家，
11:40
towards a model driven
by domestic consumption.
by domestic consumption.
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向內生消費導向的經濟體轉變。
11:43
And this is good,
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這是個好消息，
11:44
because this is where growth
will be created.
will be created.
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因為這將是未來經濟增長的起點。
11:47
In the next five years,
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未來五年
11:49
the next billion consumers in China
will inject more growth in our economies
will inject more growth in our economies
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中國的十億人消費力市場
將會與歐洲五大市場加起來
將會與歐洲五大市場加起來
11:54
than the top five
European markets together.
European markets together.
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為我們的經濟發展注入更多動力。
11:59
This fourth manufacturing revolution
is a chance for all of us.
is a chance for all of us.
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對我們所有人而言，
第四次工業革命都是一次機遇。
第四次工業革命都是一次機遇。
12:05
If we play it right,
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如果我們正確運用它，
12:07
we'll see sustainable growth
in all of our economies.
in all of our economies.
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我們將會為我們的經濟帶來持續發展。
12:10
This means more wealth
distributed to all of us
distributed to all of us
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這意味著分給我們所有人的財富會增加
12:14
and a better future for our children.
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我們的孩子也將擁有一個更好的未來。
12:17
Thank you.
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謝謝！
12:18
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Olivier Scalabre - Industrial systems thinkerBCG's Olivier Scalabre analyzes the evolution of large industrial companies' manufacturing footprint and operations.
Why you should listen
Olivier Scalabre heads BCG's Operations Practice for Western Europe, North Africa and South America. In the last three years, he launched BCG Ops Centers serving regions out of Paris, London, and Sao Paolo via 100 experts dedicated to manufacturing, supply chain, procurement and services operations across industries. As part of his career at BCG, Scalabre has worked both in mature and emerging markets, most notably out of the BCG New Delhi and BCG Paris offices.
As a senior partner, Scalabre supports large operations programs for industrial goods clients in multiple sectors. He is also responsible for the overall BCG relationship with clients focused on large-scale engineered products and projects.
Scalabre is a member of the management team of the BCG Paris Office. He is an engineer and studied at École Centrale Paris.
Olivier Scalabre | Speaker | TED.com