TED2015
Dan Ariely: How equal do we want the world to be? You'd be surprised
Den Arijeli (Dan Ariely): Koliko jednakosti u svetu bismo želeli? Iznenadili biste se
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Vesti o rastućoj nejednakosti u društvu nas sve uznemiravaju. Ali zašto? Den Arijeli otkriva nova, iznenađujuća istraživanja o tome šta mislimo da je pošteno, po pitanju toga kako je bogatstvo raspoređeno u društvu... potom nam pokazuje kako to izgleda u poređenju sa stvarnom statistikom.
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
It would be nice to be
objective in life,
objective in life,
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Bilo bi lepo kad bismo
bili objektivni u životu,
bili objektivni u životu,
00:15
in many ways.
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iz mnogo razloga.
00:17
The problem is that we have
these color-tinted glasses
these color-tinted glasses
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Ali problem je što nosimo
šarene naočari
šarene naočari
00:20
as we look at all kinds of situations.
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dok posmatramo različite siuacije.
00:25
For example, think about
something as simple as beer.
something as simple as beer.
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Na primer, uzmite nešto
jednostavno, poput piva.
jednostavno, poput piva.
Kada bih vam ponudio
da probate nekoliko piva
da probate nekoliko piva
00:29
If I gave you a few beers to taste
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00:31
and I asked you to rate them
on intensity and bitterness,
on intensity and bitterness,
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i kada bih vam zatražio da ocenite
njihovu jačinu i gorčinu,
njihovu jačinu i gorčinu,
različita piva bi zauzela različita mesta.
00:35
different beers would occupy
different space.
different space.
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Ali šta ako bismo pokušali
da budemo objektivni o tome?
da budemo objektivni o tome?
00:39
But what if we tried
to be objective about it?
to be objective about it?
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00:41
In the case of beer,
it would be very simple.
it would be very simple.
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U slučaju piva, bilo bi veoma jednostavno.
Šta ako bismo vas testirali na slepo?
00:43
What if we did a blind taste?
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00:46
Well, if we did the same thing,
you tasted the same beer,
you tasted the same beer,
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Pa, ako bismo uradili isti test,
probali biste isto pivo,
probali biste isto pivo,
samo ovaj put na slepo,
stvari bi izgledale nešto drugačije.
stvari bi izgledale nešto drugačije.
00:48
now in the blind taste,
things would look slightly different.
things would look slightly different.
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Većinu piva bi smestili
na sličnu poziciju.
na sličnu poziciju.
00:52
Most of the beers will go into one place.
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U suštini, ne biste bili u stanju
da ih razlikujete,
da ih razlikujete,
00:55
You will basically not
be able to distinguish them,
be able to distinguish them,
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a izuzetak, naravno, bi bio Ginis.
00:57
and the exception, of course,
will be Guinness.
will be Guinness.
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01:00
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
01:02
Similarly, we can think about physiology.
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Slično, možemo
da razmišljamo o fiziologiji.
da razmišljamo o fiziologiji.
01:05
What happens when people expect
something from their physiology?
something from their physiology?
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Šta se desi kada ljudi očekuju
nešto od svoje fiziologije?
nešto od svoje fiziologije?
01:08
For example, we sold people
pain medications.
pain medications.
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Na primer, prodali smo ljudima
lekove za bol.
lekove za bol.
01:11
Some people, we told them
the medications were expensive.
the medications were expensive.
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Nekima smo rekli da su lekovi skupi.
01:13
Some people, we told them it was cheap.
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Nekima smo rekli da su jeftini.
01:15
And the expensive
pain medication worked better.
pain medication worked better.
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I skupi lekovi za bol
su bili učinkovitiji.
su bili učinkovitiji.
01:18
It relieved more pain from people,
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Ljudima su više olakšavali bol,
01:21
because expectations
do change our physiology.
do change our physiology.
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jer očekivanja utiču na našu fiziologiju.
01:24
And of course, we all know that in sports,
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I naravno, svi znamo da u sportu,
01:26
if you are a fan of a particular team,
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ako ste ljubitelj određene ekipe,
01:28
you can't help but see the game
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ne možete a da ne posmatrate razvoj igre
01:31
develop from the perspective of your team.
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iz perspektive svoje ekipe.
01:34
So all of those are cases in which
our preconceived notions
our preconceived notions
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Sve su ovo slučajevi
u kojima naše predrasude
i očekivanja, boje naš svet.
i očekivanja, boje naš svet.
01:38
and our expectations color our world.
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01:42
But what happened
in more important questions?
in more important questions?
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Ali šta bi se desilo kod važnijih pitanja?
01:45
What happened with questions
that had to do with social justice?
that had to do with social justice?
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Šta bi se desilo kod pitanja
vezanih za socijalnu pravdu?
vezanih za socijalnu pravdu?
01:49
So we wanted to think about
what is the blind tasting version
what is the blind tasting version
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Pa smo hteli da razmislimo o tome
kako bi izgledalo testiranje na slepo,
kako bi izgledalo testiranje na slepo,
01:52
for thinking about inequality?
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prilikom razmišljanja o nejednakosti?
01:55
So we started looking at inequality,
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Počeli smo da razmatramo nejednakost
01:57
and we did some large-scale surveys
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i odradili smo istraživanje većeg obima,
01:59
around the U.S. and other countries.
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širom SAD-a i u drugim zemljama.
02:02
So we asked two questions:
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Postavili smo dva pitanja:
da li ljudi znaju koliki je stepen
nejednakosti koji imamo?
nejednakosti koji imamo?
02:04
Do people know what kind of
level of inequality we have?
level of inequality we have?
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A potom i: koliki stepen nejednakosti
bismo voleli da imamo?
bismo voleli da imamo?
02:07
And then, what level of inequality
do we want to have?
do we want to have?
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Razmislimo o prvom pitanju.
02:11
So let's think about the first question.
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Zamislite da sam uzeo sve ljude iz SAD-a
02:14
Imagine I took all the people in the U.S.
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02:16
and I sorted them from
the poorest on the right
the poorest on the right
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i poređao ih od najsiromašnijih, s desna
do najbogatijih, s leva,
02:19
to the richest on the left,
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a potom sam ih podelio u pet kategorija:
02:21
and then I divided them into five buckets:
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02:24
the poorest 20 percent,
the next 20 percent,
the next 20 percent,
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20 procenata najsiromašnijih,
zatim sledećih 20%,
zatim sledećih 20%,
02:26
the next, the next,
and the richest 20 percent.
and the richest 20 percent.
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pa sledećih, pa sledećih
i 20 procenata najbogatijih.
i 20 procenata najbogatijih.
A potom sam vas upitao da mi kažete
koliko smatrate da je dobra
koliko smatrate da je dobra
02:29
And then I asked you to tell me
how much wealth do you think
how much wealth do you think
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02:32
is concentrated in each of those buckets.
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koncentrisano u svakoj od ovih kategorija.
02:35
So to make it simpler,
imagine I ask you to tell me,
imagine I ask you to tell me,
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Da bih to pojednostavio,
zamislite da sam vas pitao:
zamislite da sam vas pitao:
02:37
how much wealth do you think
is concentrated
is concentrated
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koliko smatrate da je bogatstva
koncentrisano
koncentrisano
02:40
in the bottom two buckets,
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u najsiromašnije dve kategorije,
02:42
the bottom 40 percent?
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donjih 40 procenata?
02:44
Take a second. Think about it
and have a number.
and have a number.
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Razmislite na sekund
i dođite do nekog broja.
i dođite do nekog broja.
02:47
Usually we don't think.
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Obično ne mislimo o tome.
02:49
Think for a second,
have a real number in your mind.
have a real number in your mind.
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Razmislite na sekund,
dođite do nekog realnog broja.
dođite do nekog realnog broja.
02:51
You have it?
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Imate li ga?
02:53
Okay, here's what lots
of Americans tell us.
of Americans tell us.
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U redu, evo šta nam
većina Amerikanaca kaže.
većina Amerikanaca kaže.
02:56
They think that the bottom 20 percent
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Smatraju da najsiromašnijih 20 procenata
02:58
has about 2.9 percent of the wealth,
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poseduje 2.9 procenata bogatstva,
03:00
the next group has 6.4,
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sledeća grupa ima 6.4,
03:02
so together it's slightly more than nine.
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dakle, zajedno imaju jedva preko devet.
03:05
The next group, they say, has 12 percent,
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Sledeća grupa, kažu, ima 12 procenata,
zatim 20,
03:08
20 percent,
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03:10
and the richest 20 percent, people think
has 58 percent of the wealth.
has 58 percent of the wealth.
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a najbogatijih 20 procenata, smatra se
da imaju 58 procenata bogatstva.
da imaju 58 procenata bogatstva.
03:15
You can see how this relates
to what you thought.
to what you thought.
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Možete da uporedite ovo
s vašim pretpostavkama.
s vašim pretpostavkama.
03:18
Now, what's reality?
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A sad, kako je u stvarnosti?
03:19
Reality is slightly different.
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U stvarnosti je nešto drugačije.
03:21
The bottom 20 percent
has 0.1 percent of the wealth.
has 0.1 percent of the wealth.
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Najsiromašnijih 20 procenata
ima 0.1 procenat bogatstva.
ima 0.1 procenat bogatstva.
03:25
The next 20 percent
has 0.2 percent of the wealth.
has 0.2 percent of the wealth.
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Sledećih 20 procenata
ima 0.2 procenta bogatstva.
ima 0.2 procenta bogatstva.
03:28
Together, it's 0.3.
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Zajedno, to je 0.3.
03:30
The next group has 3.9,
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Sledeća grupa ima 3.9,
03:34
11.3,
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pa 11.3,
03:36
and the richest group
has 84-85 percent of the wealth.
has 84-85 percent of the wealth.
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a najbogatija grupa
ima 84-85 procenata bogatstva.
ima 84-85 procenata bogatstva.
03:42
So what we actually have
and what we think we have
and what we think we have
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Dakle, ono što zaista imamo
i ono što mislimo da imamo
i ono što mislimo da imamo
03:45
are very different.
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su različite stvari.
03:47
What about what we want?
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Šta je sa onim šta želimo?
Kako bismo to uopšte ocenili?
03:49
How do we even figure this out?
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03:51
So to look at this,
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Kako bismo se osvrnuli na to,
03:52
to look at what we really want,
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osvrnuli na to šta zaista želimo,
03:54
we thought about
the philosopher John Rawls.
the philosopher John Rawls.
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setili smo se filozofa Džona Rolsa.
Ako se sećate, Džon Rols
03:57
If you remember John Rawls,
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je imao zamisao o tome
šta je pravedno društvo.
šta je pravedno društvo.
03:59
he had this notion
of what's a just society.
of what's a just society.
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Rekao je da je pravedno društvo
04:02
He said a just society
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04:04
is a society that if
you knew everything about it,
you knew everything about it,
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ono o kome kada biste znali sve,
bili biste spremni da budete
bilo koji njegov član.
bilo koji njegov član.
04:06
you would be willing
to enter it in a random place.
to enter it in a random place.
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04:09
And it's a beautiful definition,
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I to je prelepa definicija,
04:10
because if you're wealthy,
you might want the wealthy
you might want the wealthy
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jer ako ste bogati,
možda želite da bogati
možda želite da bogati
imaju više novca,
a da siromašni imaju manje.
a da siromašni imaju manje.
04:13
to have more money, the poor to have less.
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Ako ste siromašni, možda želite
više jednakosti.
više jednakosti.
04:15
If you're poor, you might
want more equality.
want more equality.
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04:17
But if you're going
to go into that society
to go into that society
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Ali ako ulazite u to društvo,
04:19
in every possible situation,
and you don't know,
and you don't know,
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a da vam nije poznato
na koju od svih mogućih pozicija,
na koju od svih mogućih pozicija,
04:22
you have to consider all the aspects.
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moraćete da razmislite o svim aspektima.
04:24
It's a little bit like blind tasting
in which you don't know
in which you don't know
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To je poput testiranja na slepo
u kojem ne znate
u kojem ne znate
04:27
what the outcome will be
when you make a decision,
when you make a decision,
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kakva će biti posledica vašeg izbora,
04:30
and Rawls called this
the "veil of ignorance."
the "veil of ignorance."
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a Rols je ovo nazvao "velom neznanja".
04:34
So, we took another group,
a large group of Americans,
a large group of Americans,
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Pa smo uzeli još jednu grupu,
veliku grupu Amerikanaca,
veliku grupu Amerikanaca,
04:37
and we asked them the question
in the veil of ignorance.
in the veil of ignorance.
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i postavili smo im pitanje
pod velom neznanja.
pod velom neznanja.
04:40
What are the characteristics of a country
that would make you want to join it,
that would make you want to join it,
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Koje su to osobine države
kojoj biste se priključili,
kojoj biste se priključili,
04:44
knowing that you could end
randomly at any place?
randomly at any place?
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znajući da biste mogli da završite
na bilo kojoj poziciji?
na bilo kojoj poziciji?
04:47
And here is what we got.
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A evo šta smo dobili.
04:49
What did people want to give
to the first group,
to the first group,
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Koliko bi ljudi dali prvoj grupi,
04:51
the bottom 20 percent?
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najsiromašnijih 20 procenata?
04:53
They wanted to give them
about 10 percent of the wealth.
about 10 percent of the wealth.
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Želeli su da im daju
10 procenata bogatstva.
10 procenata bogatstva.
04:56
The next group, 14 percent of the wealth,
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Sledećoj grupi bi dali
14 procenata bogatstva,
14 procenata bogatstva,
04:59
21, 22 and 32.
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zatim 21, 22 i 32.
05:04
Now, nobody in our sample
wanted full equality.
wanted full equality.
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Sad, niko u našem primeru
nije želeo potpunu jednakost.
nije želeo potpunu jednakost.
05:07
Nobody thought that socialism
is a fantastic idea in our sample.
is a fantastic idea in our sample.
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Niko u našem primeru nije smatrao
socijalizam za sjajnu ideju.
socijalizam za sjajnu ideju.
05:12
But what does it mean?
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Ali šta to znači?
05:13
It means that we have this knowledge gap
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To znači da postoji jaz u znanju,
05:15
between what we have
and what we think we have,
and what we think we have,
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između onoga što imamo
i onoga što mislimo da imamo,
i onoga što mislimo da imamo,
05:18
but we have at least as big a gap
between what we think is right
between what we think is right
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ali imamo, blago rečeno, veliki jaz
između onoga što smatramo pravednim
između onoga što smatramo pravednim
05:22
to what we think we have.
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i onoga što mislimo da imamo.
05:24
Now, we can ask these questions,
by the way, not just about wealth.
by the way, not just about wealth.
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Možemo da postavljamo ovakva pitanja,
usput, ne samo o bogatstvu.
usput, ne samo o bogatstvu.
05:28
We can ask it about other things as well.
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Možemo da pitamo i za druge stvari.
05:30
So for example, we asked people
from different parts of the world
from different parts of the world
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Pa smo, na primer, pitali ljude
iz različitih delova sveta
iz različitih delova sveta
05:34
about this question,
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ovo pitanje,
05:36
people who are liberals and conservatives,
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pitali smo i liberale i konzervativce,
05:38
and they gave us basically
the same answer.
the same answer.
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i svi su dali praktično isti odgovor.
05:40
We asked rich and poor,
they gave us the same answer,
they gave us the same answer,
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Pitali smo bogate i siromašne,
isto su odgovorili,
isto su odgovorili,
05:43
men and women,
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muškarci i žene,
05:44
NPR listeners and Forbes readers.
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Slušaoci NPR radija i čitaoci Forbsa.
05:47
We asked people in England,
Australia, the U.S. --
Australia, the U.S. --
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Pitali smo ljude u Engleskoj,
Australiji, SAD-u -
Australiji, SAD-u -
05:50
very similar answers.
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slični su odgovori.
05:52
We even asked different
departments of a university.
departments of a university.
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Čak smo pitali i različite odseke
istog univerziteta.
istog univerziteta.
05:54
We went to Harvard and we checked
almost every department,
almost every department,
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Otišli smo na Harvard i proverili
na skoro svim odsecima,
na skoro svim odsecima,
05:57
and in fact, from Harvard Business School,
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i zapravo na Harvardovoj Poslovnoj školi,
05:59
where a few people wanted the wealthy
to have more and the [poor] to have less,
to have more and the [poor] to have less,
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gde bi nekolicina želela
da bogati imaju više, siromašni manje,
da bogati imaju više, siromašni manje,
sličnost u odgovorima nas je zapanjila.
06:03
the similarity was astonishing.
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06:05
I know some of you went
to Harvard Business School.
to Harvard Business School.
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Znam da su neki od vas pohađali
Poslovnu školu na Harvardu.
Poslovnu školu na Harvardu.
06:08
We also asked this question
about something else.
about something else.
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Takođe smo ovo pitanje postavili
o nečem drugom.
o nečem drugom.
Pitali smo, kakav je odnos plate izvršnog
direktora i nekvalifikovanih radnika?
direktora i nekvalifikovanih radnika?
06:12
We asked, what about the ratio
of CEO pay to unskilled workers?
of CEO pay to unskilled workers?
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06:17
So you can see what
people think is the ratio,
people think is the ratio,
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Vidite šta ljudi smatraju da je odnos,
06:20
and then we can ask the question,
what do they think should be the ratio?
what do they think should be the ratio?
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a potom možemo da pitamo
šta misle da bi trebalo da bude odnos?
šta misle da bi trebalo da bude odnos?
06:24
And then we can ask, what is reality?
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A onda pitamo kako je u stvarnosti.
Kako je u stvarnosti? Možda ćete reći:
"I nije tako strašno, je l' da?"
"I nije tako strašno, je l' da?"
06:26
What is reality? And you could say,
well, it's not that bad, right?
well, it's not that bad, right?
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06:30
The red and the yellow
are not that different.
are not that different.
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Crveno i žuto i nisu toliko različiti.
06:32
But the fact is, it's because
I didn't draw them on the same scale.
I didn't draw them on the same scale.
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Ali činjenica je da ih nisam nacrtao
u istoj razmeri.
u istoj razmeri.
06:38
It's hard to see, there's yellow
and blue in there.
and blue in there.
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Teško je videti, žuto i plavo su tu negde.
06:42
So what about other outcomes of wealth?
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Kakvi su rezultati za druga bogatstva?
06:44
Wealth is not just about wealth.
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Bogatstvo nije samo u imućnosti.
06:46
We asked, what about things like health?
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Pitali smo: šta je sa zdravljem?
06:48
What about availability
of prescription medication?
of prescription medication?
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Šta je sa dostupnošću
lekova na recept?
lekova na recept?
06:52
What about life expectancy?
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Šta je sa očekivanim životnim vekom?
06:54
What about life expectancy of infants?
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Šta je sa životnim vekom
kod novorođenčadi?
kod novorođenčadi?
06:57
How do we want this to be distributed?
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Kako bismo to voleli da raspodelimo?
06:59
What about education for young people?
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Šta je sa obrazovanjem za mlade?
07:02
And for older people?
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A šta za one starije?
07:04
And across all of those things,
what we learned was that people
what we learned was that people
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I kroz sve ovo, shvatili smo da ljudi
07:07
don't like inequality of wealth,
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ne vole nejednakost u dobrima,
07:10
but there's other things where inequality,
which is an outcome of wealth,
which is an outcome of wealth,
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ali postoje druge stvari gde nejednakost,
koja je posledica bogatstva,
koja je posledica bogatstva,
07:13
is even more aversive to them:
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im je čak i neprijatnija:
07:15
for example, inequality
in health or education.
in health or education.
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na primer, nejednakost
kada su zdravlje i obrazovanje u pitanju.
kada su zdravlje i obrazovanje u pitanju.
07:19
We also learned that people
are particularly open
are particularly open
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Takođe smo saznali da su ljudi
naročito otvoreni
naročito otvoreni
07:22
to changes in equality
when it comes to people
when it comes to people
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za promene u jednakosti
kada se radi o ljudima
kada se radi o ljudima
07:24
who have less agency --
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koji imaju manju odgovornost -
07:26
basically, young kids and babies,
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u suštini, to su deca i bebe,
07:29
because we don't think of them
as responsible for their situation.
as responsible for their situation.
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jer ih ne smatramo odgovornim
za situaciju u kojoj su.
za situaciju u kojoj su.
07:34
So what are some lessons from this?
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Koje pouke smo izvukli iz ovoga?
Imamo dva jaza:
07:36
We have two gaps:
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Imamo jaz u znanju
i imamo jaz u onome šta želimo.
i imamo jaz u onome šta želimo.
07:37
We have a knowledge gap
and we have a desirability gap
and we have a desirability gap
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07:40
And the knowledge gap
is something that we think about,
is something that we think about,
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A jaz u znanju je nešto
o čemu razmišljamo,
o čemu razmišljamo,
kako da obrazujemo ljude?
07:42
how do we educate people?
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07:44
How do we get people to think
differently about inequality
differently about inequality
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Kako da navedemo ljude
da misle drugačije o nejednakosti
da misle drugačije o nejednakosti
07:46
and the consequences of inequality
in terms of health, education,
in terms of health, education,
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i o posledicama koje ostavlja
na zdravlje, obrazovanje,
na zdravlje, obrazovanje,
07:50
jealousy, crime rate, and so on?
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zavist, stopu kriminala itd?
07:52
Then we have the desirability gap.
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Potom, tu je jaz u onome šta želimo.
07:54
How do we get people to think differently
about what we really want?
about what we really want?
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Kako da navedemo ljude da razmišljaju
drugačije o tome šta stvarno žele?
drugačije o tome šta stvarno žele?
07:58
You see, the Rawls definition,
the Rawls way of looking at the world,
the Rawls way of looking at the world,
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Vidite, Rolsova definicija,
Rolsovo viđenje sveta,
Rolsovo viđenje sveta,
08:02
the blind tasting approach,
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pristup s testiranjem na slepo,
08:03
takes our selfish motivation
out of the picture.
out of the picture.
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uklanja naše sebične podsticaje iz vidika.
08:06
How do we implement that
to a higher degree
to a higher degree
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Kako da to primenimo na višem nivou,
08:09
on a more extensive scale?
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u obimnijoj razmeri?
08:11
And finally, we also have an action gap.
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I konačno, takođe imamo jaz u delanju.
08:14
How do we take these things
and actually do something about it?
and actually do something about it?
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Kako da prihvatimo sve ovo
i da zapravo uradimo nešto?
i da zapravo uradimo nešto?
08:17
I think part of the answer
is to think about people
is to think about people
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Mislim da je rešenje delom
u razmišljanju o ljudima,
u razmišljanju o ljudima,
08:20
like young kids and babies
that don't have much agency,
that don't have much agency,
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poput dece i beba,
koji nemaju mnogo odgovornosti,
koji nemaju mnogo odgovornosti,
08:23
because people seem to be
more willing to do this.
more willing to do this.
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jer su ljudi spremni da se
potrude u njihovom slučaju.
potrude u njihovom slučaju.
08:27
To summarize, I would say,
next time you go to drink beer or wine,
next time you go to drink beer or wine,
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Da sumiram, rekao bih, sledeći put
kada krenete da pijete pivo ili vino,
kada krenete da pijete pivo ili vino,
08:32
first of all, think about, what is it
in your experience that is real,
in your experience that is real,
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pre svega razmislite, koliko je
vaš doživljaj stvaran,
vaš doživljaj stvaran,
08:36
and what is it in your experience
that is a placebo effect
that is a placebo effect
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a koliko je to samo placebo efekat
proizašao iz vaših očekivanja?
08:40
coming from expectations?
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08:41
And then think about what it also means
for other decisions in your life,
for other decisions in your life,
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A zatim razmislite kako je u slučaju
drugih odluka u vašem životu
drugih odluka u vašem životu
i nadam se, takođe,
i kod političkih pitanja
i kod političkih pitanja
08:45
and hopefully also for policy questions
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koja utiču na sve nas.
08:47
that affect all of us.
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08:48
Thanks a lot.
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Mnogo vam hvala.
08:50
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com