TED2011
Bill Gates: How state budgets are breaking US schools
Bill Gates: Hvordan delstats budgetter ødelægger amerikanske skoler
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Amerikas skolesystem bliver finansieret af de 50 delstater. I dette intense foredrag, siger Bill Gates at delstaters budgetter er gennemhullet med regnskabs tricks der skjuler den sande udgift til sundhedssystemet og pensioner og belastet af forværrede underskud -- med finansiering af uddannelse i den tabende ende.
Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Well, this is about state budgets.
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Jamen, dette handler om delstatens budgetter.
00:17
This is probably the most boring topic
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Dette er nok det kedeligste emne
00:20
of the whole morning.
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hele denne morgen.
00:22
But I want to tell you, I think it's an important topic
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Men jeg vil gerne fortælle jer, at jeg mener det er et vigtigt emne
00:25
that we need to care about.
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som vi skal bekymre os om.
00:28
State budgets
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Delstatens budgetter
00:30
are big, big money --
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er store, store penge --
00:33
I'll show you the numbers --
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jeg vil vise jer tallene --
00:35
and they get very little scrutiny.
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og de bliver gransket meget lidt.
00:38
The understanding is very low.
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Forståelsen er meget lille.
00:41
Many of the people involved
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Mange af de involverede mennesker
00:43
have special interests or short-term interests
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har egeninteresser eller korttids interesser
00:45
that get them not thinking
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som ikke får dem til at tænke
00:47
about what the implications of the trends are.
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på hvad konsekvenserne af trendsene er.
00:51
And these budgets
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Og disse budgetter
00:53
are the key for our future;
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er nøglen til vores fremtid;
00:55
they're the key for our kids.
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de er nøglen til vores børn.
00:57
Most education funding --
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Det meste finansiering til uddannelse --
00:59
whether it's K through 12,
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hvad enten det er grundskolen,
01:01
or the great universities or community colleges --
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eller de største universiteter, eller community college --
01:04
most of the money for those things
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de fleste penge til den slags ting
01:06
is coming out of these state budgets.
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kommer fra delstatens budgetter.
01:09
But we have a problem.
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Men vi har et problem.
01:11
Here's the overall picture.
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Her er det overordnede billede.
01:13
U.S. economy is big --
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Den amerikanske økonomi er stor --
01:16
14.7 trillion.
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14.7 billioner.
01:18
Now out of that pie,
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Og ud af den kage,
01:20
the government spends 36 percent.
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bruger regeringen 36 procent.
01:23
So this is combining the federal level,
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Så dette kombinerer det føderale niveau,
01:25
which is the largest,
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hvilket er det største,
01:27
the state level and the local level.
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med delstat niveau og lokalt niveau.
01:29
And it's really in this combined way
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Og det er virkelig på denne kombinerede måde
01:31
that you get an overall sense of what's going on,
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at man får en overordnet fornemmelse af hvad der sker,
01:33
because there's a lot of complex things
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fordi der er mange komplekse ting
01:35
like Medicaid and research money
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ligesom Medicaid og forskningspenge
01:37
that flow across those boundaries.
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som flyder over grænserne.
01:40
But we're spending 36 percent.
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Men vi bruger 36 procent.
01:42
Well what are we taking in?
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Jamen hvad får vi ind?
01:44
Simple business question.
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Simple forretnings spørgsmål.
01:46
Answer is 26 percent.
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Svaret er 26 procent.
01:50
Now this leaves 10 percent deficit,
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Det efterlader et underskud på 10 procent,
01:55
sort of a mind-blowing number.
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nok et overvældende nummer.
01:58
And some of that, in fact, is due to the fact
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Og noget af det, er faktisk på grund af det faktum,
02:01
that we've had an economic recession.
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at vi har haft en økonomisk recession.
02:03
Receipts go down,
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Indtægter falder,
02:05
some spending programs go up,
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nogle finansieringsprogrammer stiger,
02:07
but most of it is not because of that.
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men det meste er ikke på grund af det.
02:10
Most of it is because of ways
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Det meste er på grund af måderne
02:12
that the liabilities are building up
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hvorpå gælden vokser sig større
02:14
and the trends,
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og de udviklinger,
02:16
and that creates a huge challenge.
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og det skaber en kæmpe udfordring.
02:19
In fact, this is the forecast picture.
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Faktisk, er dette er forudsigelsen.
02:22
There are various things in here:
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Der er forskellige ting i det:
02:24
I could say we might raise more revenue,
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jeg kunne sige, at vi kunne skaffe flere indtægter,
02:26
or medical innovation will make the spending even higher.
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eller at medicinske innovationer vil få forbruget til at stige endnu mere.
02:30
It is an increasingly difficult picture,
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Det er et stigende svært billede,
02:33
even assuming the economy does quite well --
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selv at antage at økonomien klarer sig ganske godt --
02:36
probably better than it will do.
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sikkert bedre end den vil komme til.
02:39
This is what you see
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Dette er hvad man ser
02:41
at this overall level.
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på dette overordnede niveau.
02:43
Now how did we get here?
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Men hvordan nåede vi dertil?
02:45
How could you have a problem like this?
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Hvordan kan man have sådan et problem?
02:48
After all, at least on paper,
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Der er alligevel, i hvert fald på papiret,
02:51
there's this notion that these state budgets are balanced.
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denne tanke at disse delstats budgetter er afstemte.
02:54
Only one state says
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Kun én delstat siger
02:56
they don't have to balance the budget.
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at de ikke behøver at afstemme budgettet.
02:58
But what this means actually
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Men hvad dette egentlig betyder
03:00
is that there's a pretense.
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er at der er et påskud.
03:02
There's no real, true balancing going on,
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Der sker ikke nogen virkelig, sand afstemning,
03:05
and in a sense, the games they play to hide that
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og på en måde tilslører de spil de spiller for at skjule det
03:09
actually obscure the topic so much
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faktisk emnet så meget,
03:11
that people don't see things
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at mennesker ikke ser ting
03:13
that are actually pretty straight-forward challenges.
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der faktisk er ret ukomplicerede udfordringer.
03:17
When Jerry Brown was elected,
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Da Jerry Brown blev valgt,
03:19
this was the challenge that was put to him.
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var dette udfordringen han blev pålagt.
03:21
That is, through various gimmicks and things,
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Det er, gennem forskellige gimmicks og andre ting,
03:24
a so-called balanced budget
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havde et såkaldt afstemt budget
03:27
had led him to have 25 billion missing
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fået ham til at tro, at der manglede 25 milliarder
03:31
out of the 76 billion in proposed spending.
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af de 76 milliarder i foreslåede udgifter.
03:34
Now he's put together some thoughts:
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Nu har han samlet nogle tanker:
03:36
About half of that he'll cut,
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Omkring halvdelen af det vil han spare,
03:39
another half,
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en anden halvdel,
03:41
perhaps in a very complex set of steps,
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måske på en række indviklede trin,
03:43
taxes will be approved.
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vil skatter blive godkendt.
03:45
But even so,
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Men alligevel,
03:47
as you go out into those future years,
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som man går ind i de fremtidige år,
03:50
various pension costs, health costs go up enough,
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forskellige pensionsudgifter, sundhedsvæsnets udgifter stiger,
03:53
and the revenue does not go up enough.
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og indtægter stiger ikke nok.
03:56
So you get a big squeeze.
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Så man får en stor flaskehals.
03:58
What were those things that allowed us to hide this?
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Hvad var de ting der gav os lov til at skjule dette?
04:01
Well, some really nice little tricks.
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Jamen, nogle ret smarte små tricks.
04:04
And these were somewhat noticed.
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Og dem blev der lagt noget mærke til.
04:06
The paper said, "It's not really balanced.
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Avisen sagde, "Det er i virkeligheden ikke afstemt.
04:08
It's got holes.
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Der er huller.
04:10
It perpetuates deficit spending.
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Det sikrer varigt underskuds forbrug.
04:12
It's riddled with gimmicks."
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Det er fyldt med gimmicks."
04:15
And really when you get down to it,
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Og når man virkelig fordyber sig i det.
04:18
the guys at Enron never would have done this.
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ville gutterne ved Enron aldrig have gjort dette.
04:21
This is so blatant,
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Dette er så groft,
04:23
so extreme.
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så ekstremt.
04:26
Is anyone paying attention
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Lægger nogen mærke
04:28
to some of the things these guys do?
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til nogle af de ting som disse gutter gør?
04:31
They borrow money.
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De låner penge.
04:33
They're not supposed to, but they figure out a way.
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Det er ikke meningen de gør det, men de finder på en måde.
04:35
They make you pay more in withholding
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De får en til at betale mere i unddragelse
04:37
just to help their cash flow out.
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bare for at hjælpe deres cash flow.
04:39
They sell off the assets.
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De sælger aktiverne.
04:41
They defer the payments.
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De udskyder betalingerne.
04:44
They sell off the revenues from tobacco.
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De frasælger indtægterne fra tobak.
04:46
And California's not unique.
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Og det sker ikke kun i Californien.
04:48
In fact, there's about five states that are worse
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Faktisk, er der omkring fem delstater der er værre
04:50
and only really four states
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og kun fire delstater
04:52
that don't face this big challenge.
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der ikke har denne store udfordring.
04:54
So it's systemic across the entire country.
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Så det er systematisk over hele landet.
04:57
It really comes from the fact
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Det stammer egentlig fra det faktum
04:59
that certain long-term obligations --
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at bestemte langtidssigtede forpligtelser --
05:01
health care, where innovation makes it more expensive,
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sundhedsvæsnet, hvor innovation gør det dyrere,
05:04
early retirement and pension, where the age structure gets worse for you,
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tidlig pensionering og pension, hvor alders sammensætningen bliver værre,
05:07
and just generosity --
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og bare generøsitet --
05:09
that these mis-accounting things
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som disse ikke-regnskabs ting
05:11
allow to develop over time,
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tillader at udvikle over tid,
05:13
that you've got a problem.
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der gør at man har et problem.
05:16
This is the retiree health care benefits.
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Dette er sundhedsomkostningerne for pensionister.
05:18
Three million set aside, 62 billion dollar liability --
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Tre millioner sat til side, 62 milliarder dollars i gældsforhold --
05:21
much worse than the car companies.
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meget værre end bilindustrien.
05:23
And everybody looked at that
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Og alle kiggede på det
05:25
and knew that that was headed toward a huge problem.
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og vidste at det var på vej til at blive et kæmpe problem.
05:28
The forecast for the medical piece alone
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Forudsigelsen, udelukkende for sundhedsvæsnet,
05:30
is to go from 26 percent of the budget
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er at gå fra 26 procent af budgettet
05:32
to 42 percent.
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til 42 procent.
05:34
Well what's going to give?
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Jamen hvad kommer til at give sig?
05:36
Well in order to accommodate that,
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Jamen for at imødekomme det,
05:38
you would have to cut education spending in half.
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skulle man halvere udgiften til uddannelse.
05:42
It really is this young versus the old
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Det er virkelig denne ung versus de gamle
05:44
to some degree.
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i nogen grad.
05:46
If you don't change that revenue picture,
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Hvis man ikke ændrer det indtægtsbillede,
05:49
if you don't solve what you're doing in health care,
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hvis man ikke løser det man gør i sundhedsvæsnet,
05:51
you're going to be deinvesting in the young.
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vil man ikke investere i de unge.
05:54
The great University of California university system,
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Det fantastiske University of California universitetssystem,
05:57
the great things that have gone on,
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de fantastiske ting som det har gjort,
05:59
won't happen.
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vil ikke ske.
06:01
So far it's meant layoffs,
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Indtil videre har det betydet fyringer,
06:03
increased class sizes.
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større klasser.
06:05
Within the education community there's this discussion of,
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I uddannelses fællesskabet er der en diskussion om,
06:08
"Should it just be the young teachers who get laid off,
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"Skulle det kun være de unge lærere der bliver fyret,
06:10
or the less good teachers who get laid off?"
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eller de mindre gode lærere der bliver fyret?"
06:12
And there's a discussion: if you're going to increase class sizes,
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Og der er en diskussion: hvis man vil lave klasserne større,
06:15
where do you do that? How much effect does that have?
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hvor vil man gøre det? Hvor stor effekt har det?
06:18
And unfortunately, as you get into that, people get confused and think,
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Og uheldigvis, som man bevæger sig ind i det, bliver folk forvirrede og tænker,
06:21
well maybe you think that's okay.
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jamen måske tænker man at det er i orden.
06:23
In fact, no, education spending should not be cut.
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Faktisk, nej, bør der ikke skæres i uddannelses udgifter.
06:26
There's ways, if it's temporary,
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Der er måder, hvis det er midlertidigt,
06:28
to minimize the impact,
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til at minimere påvirkningen,
06:30
but it's a problem.
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men det er et problem.
06:32
It's also really a problem for where we need to go.
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Det er virkelig også et problem for hvor vi skal hen.
06:34
Technology has a role to play.
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Teknologi har en rolle at spille.
06:36
Well we need money to experiment with that,
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Men vi har brug for penge til at eksperimentere med det,
06:39
to get those tools in there.
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for at få de værktøjer derind.
06:41
There's the idea of paying teachers for effectiveness,
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Der er ideen om at betale lærere for effektivitet,
06:43
measuring them, giving them feedback,
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måle dem, give dem feedback,
06:45
taking videos in the classroom.
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optage video i klasselokalet.
06:47
That's something I think is very, very important.
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Det er noget jeg mener er meget, meget vigtigt.
06:49
Well you have to allocate dollars
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Men man skal bevillige dollars
06:51
for that system
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til det system
06:53
and for that incentive pay.
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og for den opmuntrende betaling.
06:55
In a situation where you have growth,
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I en situation hvor man har vækst,
06:57
you put the new money into this.
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sætter man de nye penge i dette.
06:59
Or even if you're flat, you might shift money into it.
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Eller selv når man er fattig, kunne man skifte pengene over til det.
07:01
But with the type of cuts we're talking about,
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Men med de besparelser vi snakker om,
07:03
it will be far, far harder
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vil det blive meget, meget sværere
07:05
to get these incentives for excellence,
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at få disse tilskyndelser til dygtighed,
07:07
or to move over
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eller til at flytte sig
07:09
to use technology in the new way.
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til at bruge teknologi på den nye måde.
07:12
So what's going on?
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Så hvad sker der?
07:14
Where's the brain trust
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Hvor er hjerne forvaltningen
07:16
that's in error here?
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som laver fejlen her?
07:18
Well there really is no brain trust.
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Jamen, der er egentlig ikke nogen hjerne forvaltning.
07:21
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
07:23
It's sort of the voters. It's sort of us showing up.
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Det er ligesom vælgerne. Det er ligesom os der skal komme.
07:27
Just look at this spending.
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Bare se på disse udgifter.
07:29
California will spend over 100 billion,
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California vil bruge over 100 milliarder,
07:31
Microsoft, 38,
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Microsoft, 38,
07:33
Google, about 19.
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Google, cirka 19.
07:35
The amount of IQ in good numeric analysis,
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Den mængde IQ i gode numeriske analyser,
07:38
both inside Google and Microsoft
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både i Google og Microsoft
07:40
and outside, with analysts and people of various opinions --
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og udenfor, men analytikere og mennesker med forskellige meninger --
07:43
should they have spent on that?
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skulle de have givet ud til det?
07:45
No, they wasted their money on this. What about this thing? --
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Nej, de spildte deres penge på dette. Hvad med denne ting? --
07:47
it really is quite phenomenal.
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det er virkelig ret fænomenalt.
07:50
Everybody has an opinion.
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Alle har en mening.
07:52
There's great feedback.
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Der er fantastisk feedback.
07:55
And the numbers are used to make decisions.
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Og tallene bliver brugt til at tage beslutninger.
07:58
If you go over the education spending and the health care spending --
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Hvis man kigger på udgifterne til sundhedsvæsnet og til uddannelsessystemet --
08:01
particularly these long-term trends --
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især disse langtidstendenser --
08:04
you don't have that type of involvement
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har man ikke den type involvering
08:06
on a number that's more important
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på et tal der er så vigtigt
08:08
in terms of equity, in terms of learning.
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set i forhold til rimelighed, set i forhold til læring.
08:11
So what do we need to do?
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Så hvad skal vi gøre?
08:13
We need better tools.
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Vi har brug for bedre redskaber.
08:15
We can get some things out on the Internet.
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Vi kan få nogle ting ud på internettet.
08:17
I'm going to use my website
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Jeg vil bruge min hjemmeside
08:19
to put up some things that will give the basic picture.
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til at sætte nogle ting på, som vil give det grundlæggende billede.
08:21
We need lots more.
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Vi har brug for meget mere.
08:23
There's a few good books,
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Der er få gode bøger,
08:25
one about school spending and where the money comes from --
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en om udgifter til uddannelsessystemet og hvor pengene kommer fra --
08:27
how that's changed over time, and the challenge.
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hvordan det har ændret sig over tid, og den udfordring.
08:30
We need better accounting.
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Vi har brug for bedre revisionsarbejde.
08:32
We need to take the fact
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Vi skal tænke på det faktum
08:34
that the current employees, the future liabilities they create,
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at de nuværende arbejdere, den fremtidige gæld de skaber,
08:36
that should come out of the current budget.
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det bør komme fra det nuværende budget.
08:39
We need to understand why they've done the pension accounting
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Vi har brug for at forstå hvorfor de har lavet pensions revisionsarbejde
08:41
the way they have.
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på den måde de har.
08:43
It should be more like private accounting.
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Det bør være mere ligesom privat revisionsarbejde.
08:45
It's the gold standard.
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Det er målestokken.
08:47
And finally, we need to really reward politicians.
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Og til slut, skal vi virkelig belønne politikere.
08:50
Whenever they say there's these long-term problems,
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Når de siger der er problemer på lang sigt,
08:52
we can't say, "Oh, you're the messenger with bad news?
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kan vi ikke sige, "Nå, du er budbringeren med dårligt nyt?
08:54
We just shot you."
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Vi har lige skudt dig."
08:57
In fact, there are some like these:
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Faktisk, er der nogle som disse:
08:59
Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson and others,
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Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson og andre,
09:01
who have gone through and given proposals
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der har givet nogle forslag
09:04
for this overall federal health-spending state-level problem.
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til dette overordnende føderale sundhedsvæsen, delstatsniveau udgiftsproblem.
09:08
But in fact, their work was sort of pushed off.
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Men faktisk, blev deres arbejde på en måde skubbet væk.
09:10
In fact, the week afterwards,
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Faktisk, ugen derpå,
09:13
some tax cuts were done
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blev der lavet nogle skattenedsættelser
09:15
that made the situation even worse
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der forværrede situationen mere
09:17
than their assumptions.
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end deres forventninger.
09:19
So we need these pieces.
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Så vi har brug for disse dele.
09:21
Now I think this is a solvable problem.
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Nu mener jeg at dette er et problem der kan løses.
09:24
It's a great country with lots of people.
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Det er et fantastisk land med mange mennesker.
09:27
But we have to draw those people in,
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Men vi skal tiltrække de mennesker,
09:31
because this is about education.
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fordi dette handler om uddannelse.
09:33
And just look at what happened with the tuitions
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Og se bare på hvad der skete med undervisningsgebyret
09:35
with the University of California
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ved University of California
09:37
and project that out for another three, four, five years --
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og forestil hvordan det ser ud om tre, fire, fem år --
09:40
it's unaffordable.
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det er ikke til at betale.
09:43
And that's the kind of thing --
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Og det er den slags ting --
09:45
the investment in the young --
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investering i de unge --
09:47
that makes us great, allows us to contribute.
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det gør os fantastiske, tillader os at bidrage.
09:49
It allows us to do the art,
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Det tillader os at lave kunst,
09:51
the biotechnology, the software
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bioteknologi, software
09:54
and all those magic things.
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og alle de magiske ting.
09:57
And so the bottom line is
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Så sagens kerne er, at
09:59
we need to care about state budgets
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vi skal bekymre os om delstats budgetter
10:02
because they're critical for our kids and our future.
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fordi de er kritiske for vores børn og vores fremtid.
10:04
Thank you.
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Tak.
10:06
(Applause)
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(Bifald)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gates - PhilanthropistA passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.
Why you should listen
Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.
In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.
Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com