TED2011
Bill Gates: How state budgets are breaking US schools
Bill Gates: Kako državni proračuni slamaju škole SAD-a
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Američki školski sustavi financirani su od strane 50 država. U ovom vatrenom govoru, Bill Gates otkriva da su državni proračuni prepuni računovodstvenih trikova koji prikrivaju pravu cijenu zdravstvene skrbi i mirovina, i opterećeni sa sve većim deficitima -- s financiranjem školstva na gubitku.
Bill Gates - Philanthropist
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
A passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Well, this is about state budgets.
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Pa, ovo je o državnim proračunima.
00:17
This is probably the most boring topic
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To je vjerojatno najdosadnija tema
00:20
of the whole morning.
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cijelog jutra.
00:22
But I want to tell you, I think it's an important topic
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Ali želim vam reći, mislim da je to važna tema
00:25
that we need to care about.
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kojom se moramo pozabaviti.
00:28
State budgets
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Državni proračuni
00:30
are big, big money --
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su veliki, veliki novac
00:33
I'll show you the numbers --
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-- pokazat ću vam brojke --
00:35
and they get very little scrutiny.
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i podvrgnuti su jako slabom nadzoru.
00:38
The understanding is very low.
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Razumijevanje je veoma slabo.
00:41
Many of the people involved
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Mnogo uključenih ljudi
00:43
have special interests or short-term interests
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imaju posebne interese ili kratkoročne interese
00:45
that get them not thinking
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zbog kojih ne razmišljaju
00:47
about what the implications of the trends are.
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o tome koje su implikacije trendova.
00:51
And these budgets
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I ovi su proračuni
00:53
are the key for our future;
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ključni za našu budućnost:
00:55
they're the key for our kids.
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ključni su za našu djecu.
00:57
Most education funding --
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Većina financiranja obrazovanja --
00:59
whether it's K through 12,
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bilo onog od vrtića do osnovne škole,
01:01
or the great universities or community colleges --
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ili velikih sveučilišta ili centara za više obrazovanje --
01:04
most of the money for those things
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većina novca za te stvari
01:06
is coming out of these state budgets.
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dolazi od tih državnih proračuna.
01:09
But we have a problem.
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Ali imamo problem.
01:11
Here's the overall picture.
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Evo ukupne slike.
01:13
U.S. economy is big --
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Ekonomija SAD-a je velika --
01:16
14.7 trillion.
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14.7 trilijuna dolara.
01:18
Now out of that pie,
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Od te pite,
01:20
the government spends 36 percent.
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vlada troši 36 posto.
01:23
So this is combining the federal level,
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I to je kombinacija federalne razine,
01:25
which is the largest,
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koja je najveća,
01:27
the state level and the local level.
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državne razine i lokalne razine.
01:29
And it's really in this combined way
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I doista, tek tom kombiniranom metodom
01:31
that you get an overall sense of what's going on,
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možete potpuno shvatiti što se događa
01:33
because there's a lot of complex things
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jer je puno kompleksnih stvari
01:35
like Medicaid and research money
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poput Medicaida ili novca za istraživanje
01:37
that flow across those boundaries.
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koji protječu preko tih granica.
01:40
But we're spending 36 percent.
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Ali mi pričamo o 36 posto.
01:42
Well what are we taking in?
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A što mi unosimo?
01:44
Simple business question.
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Jednostavno poslovno pitanje.
01:46
Answer is 26 percent.
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Odgovor je 26 posto.
01:50
Now this leaves 10 percent deficit,
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Dakle, to ostavlja 10 posto deficita.
01:55
sort of a mind-blowing number.
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Donekle iznenađujući broj.
01:58
And some of that, in fact, is due to the fact
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I dio toga je zapravo razlog
02:01
that we've had an economic recession.
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što smo imali ekonomsku recesiju.
02:03
Receipts go down,
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Prihodi se smanjuju,
02:05
some spending programs go up,
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neki programi koji troše se povećavaju,
02:07
but most of it is not because of that.
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ali većina nije zbog toga.
02:10
Most of it is because of ways
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Većina je zbog načina
02:12
that the liabilities are building up
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na koji se obaveze
02:14
and the trends,
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i trendovi povećavaju,
02:16
and that creates a huge challenge.
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i to stvara veliki izazov.
02:19
In fact, this is the forecast picture.
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Zapravo, ovo je slika predviđanja.
02:22
There are various things in here:
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Ovdje su različite stvari,
02:24
I could say we might raise more revenue,
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mogao bih reći da bi mogli podići prihode
02:26
or medical innovation will make the spending even higher.
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i da će medicinske inovacije još više povećati trošenje.
02:30
It is an increasingly difficult picture,
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To je sve teža slika,
02:33
even assuming the economy does quite well --
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čak i ako pretpostavimo da će ekonomiji ići veoma dobro --
02:36
probably better than it will do.
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vjerojatno bolje nego što zaista hoće.
02:39
This is what you see
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To je ono što se vidi
02:41
at this overall level.
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na toj ukupnoj razini.
02:43
Now how did we get here?
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Kako smo došli ovdje?
02:45
How could you have a problem like this?
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Kako se stvori problem poput ovoga?
02:48
After all, at least on paper,
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Naposljetku, barem na papiru,
02:51
there's this notion that these state budgets are balanced.
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postoji ideja da su ti državni proračuni izbalansirani.
02:54
Only one state says
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Samo jedna država tvrdi
02:56
they don't have to balance the budget.
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da oni ne moraju balansirati proračun.
02:58
But what this means actually
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To zapravo znači
03:00
is that there's a pretense.
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da postoji prijevara.
03:02
There's no real, true balancing going on,
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Ne dolazi do pravog, ispravnog balansiranja.
03:05
and in a sense, the games they play to hide that
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I zapravo, igre koje igraju kako bi to prekrili,
03:09
actually obscure the topic so much
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zamračuju temu toliko
03:11
that people don't see things
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da ljudi ne vide stvari
03:13
that are actually pretty straight-forward challenges.
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koje su ustvari vrlo očiti problemi.
03:17
When Jerry Brown was elected,
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Kada je Jerry Brown bio izabran,
03:19
this was the challenge that was put to him.
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to je bio izazov koji je stavljen pred njega.
03:21
That is, through various gimmicks and things,
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To jest, kroz razne trikove i stvari,
03:24
a so-called balanced budget
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takozvani izbalansirani proračun
03:27
had led him to have 25 billion missing
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ga je doveo do toga da mu je 25 milijardi falilo
03:31
out of the 76 billion in proposed spending.
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iz 76 milijardi u predviđenom trošenju.
03:34
Now he's put together some thoughts:
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Sada je on spojio neke misli:
03:36
About half of that he'll cut,
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Otprilike pola toga će srezati,
03:39
another half,
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a drugu će polovicu,
03:41
perhaps in a very complex set of steps,
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možda u veoma kompleksnom setu koraka,
03:43
taxes will be approved.
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odobriti porezi.
03:45
But even so,
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Ali čak i tako,
03:47
as you go out into those future years,
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kako vrijeme odmiče,
03:50
various pension costs, health costs go up enough,
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razni troškovi mirovina, zdravstveni troškovi se dižu dovoljno,
03:53
and the revenue does not go up enough.
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a prihodi se ne dižu dovoljno.
03:56
So you get a big squeeze.
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I tako dobijete veliki škripac.
03:58
What were those things that allowed us to hide this?
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Koje su nam to stvari omogućile da to prikrijemo?
04:01
Well, some really nice little tricks.
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Pa, postoje veoma dobri mali trikovi.
04:04
And these were somewhat noticed.
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I oni su bili donekle primijećeni.
04:06
The paper said, "It's not really balanced.
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Novine bi rekle, „Nije zaista izbalansiran“.
04:08
It's got holes.
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„Postoje rupe“.
04:10
It perpetuates deficit spending.
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„Ovjekovječuje trošenje u deficitu“.
04:12
It's riddled with gimmicks."
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„Prepun je trikova“.
04:15
And really when you get down to it,
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I zaista, kada se upustite u to,
04:18
the guys at Enron never would have done this.
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dečki iz Enrona to ne bi nikada napravili.
04:21
This is so blatant,
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To je tako nesumnjivo,
04:23
so extreme.
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tako ekstremno.
04:26
Is anyone paying attention
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Obraća li itko pozornost
04:28
to some of the things these guys do?
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na neke od stvari koje ti ljudi čine?
04:31
They borrow money.
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Oni posuđuju novac.
04:33
They're not supposed to, but they figure out a way.
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Ne bi to trebali moći, ali oni nađu način.
04:35
They make you pay more in withholding
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Natjeraju tebe da platiš više u odbitku
04:37
just to help their cash flow out.
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samo kako bi pomogli protoku novca van.
04:39
They sell off the assets.
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Prodaju imovinu.
04:41
They defer the payments.
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Odgađaju otplate.
04:44
They sell off the revenues from tobacco.
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Rasprodaju poreze na duhan.
04:46
And California's not unique.
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I Kalifornija nije jedina.
04:48
In fact, there's about five states that are worse
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Zapravo, postoji pet država kojima je još gore
04:50
and only really four states
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i samo četiri države
04:52
that don't face this big challenge.
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koje nisu suočene s ovim velikim problemom.
04:54
So it's systemic across the entire country.
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Dakle sustavno je diljem cijele zemlje.
04:57
It really comes from the fact
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To zaista potječe od činjenice
04:59
that certain long-term obligations --
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da neke dugoročne obaveze --
05:01
health care, where innovation makes it more expensive,
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zdravstvena skrb koju inovacije čine skupljom,
05:04
early retirement and pension, where the age structure gets worse for you,
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rano umirovljenje i mirovina gdje dobna struktura postaje sve gora za vas,
05:07
and just generosity --
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i jednostavno darežljivost --
05:09
that these mis-accounting things
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da se tim protu-knjigovodstvenim stvarima
05:11
allow to develop over time,
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dopušta da se razvijaju preko vremena,
05:13
that you've got a problem.
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da imate problem.
05:16
This is the retiree health care benefits.
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Ovo su zdravstvene beneficije umirovljenika.
05:18
Three million set aside, 62 billion dollar liability --
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Tri milijuna ostavljena sa strane, 62 milijarde dugovanja --
05:21
much worse than the car companies.
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puno gore nego auto kompanije.
05:23
And everybody looked at that
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I svi su gledali to
05:25
and knew that that was headed toward a huge problem.
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i znali da to stvara golem problem.
05:28
The forecast for the medical piece alone
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Prognoza za samo medicinski dio
05:30
is to go from 26 percent of the budget
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je da se popne s 26 posto proračuna
05:32
to 42 percent.
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na 42 posto.
05:34
Well what's going to give?
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Što će se promijeniti?
05:36
Well in order to accommodate that,
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Pa, da bi se tome prilagodilo,
05:38
you would have to cut education spending in half.
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morali biste prerezati troškove obrazovanja na pola.
05:42
It really is this young versus the old
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To je zapravo mladost protiv starosti
05:44
to some degree.
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donekle.
05:46
If you don't change that revenue picture,
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Ako ne promijenite sliku prihoda,
05:49
if you don't solve what you're doing in health care,
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ako ne riješite što radite u zdravstvenoj skrbi,
05:51
you're going to be deinvesting in the young.
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manje ćete investirati u mlade.
05:54
The great University of California university system,
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Veliki sveučilišni sustav Sveučilišta Kalifornije,
05:57
the great things that have gone on,
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velike stvari koje su se događale,
05:59
won't happen.
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neće se dogoditi.
06:01
So far it's meant layoffs,
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Do sada je to značilo otpuštanja,
06:03
increased class sizes.
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povećanje veličine razreda.
06:05
Within the education community there's this discussion of,
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Unutar prosvjetnih krugova postoji rasprava:
06:08
"Should it just be the young teachers who get laid off,
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"Bi li otkaz trebali dobivati samo mladi učitelji
06:10
or the less good teachers who get laid off?"
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ili oni manje dobri učitelji?"
06:12
And there's a discussion: if you're going to increase class sizes,
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Također postoji i rasprava: Ako ćete povećati razrede,
06:15
where do you do that? How much effect does that have?
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gdje ćete to napraviti? Koliki efekt to ima?
06:18
And unfortunately, as you get into that, people get confused and think,
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I nažalost, kako se upuštate u to, ljudi postaju zbunjeni i pomisle
06:21
well maybe you think that's okay.
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„Možda, ako vi mislite da je to u redu“.
06:23
In fact, no, education spending should not be cut.
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Zapravo, ne, troškovi obrazovanja ne bi trebali biti srezani.
06:26
There's ways, if it's temporary,
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Postoje načini, ako je to privremeno,
06:28
to minimize the impact,
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da se smanji učinak,
06:30
but it's a problem.
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ali to je problem.
06:32
It's also really a problem for where we need to go.
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I također je to veliki problem za ono gdje želimo ići.
06:34
Technology has a role to play.
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Tehnologija ima ulogu za odigrati.
06:36
Well we need money to experiment with that,
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Pa mi trebamo novac da bi s tim eksperimentirali,
06:39
to get those tools in there.
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kako bi progurali ta pomagala.
06:41
There's the idea of paying teachers for effectiveness,
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Postoji zamisao da se učitelja plaća po učinkovitosti,
06:43
measuring them, giving them feedback,
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da ih se procjenjuje, daje povratne informacije,
06:45
taking videos in the classroom.
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snima učionice.
06:47
That's something I think is very, very important.
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To je nešto što ja smatram da je jako, jako važno.
06:49
Well you have to allocate dollars
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E, pa za to morate dodijeliti novac
06:51
for that system
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za taj sistem
06:53
and for that incentive pay.
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i za tu poticajnu plaću.
06:55
In a situation where you have growth,
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U situaciji gdje imate porast,
06:57
you put the new money into this.
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odvajate novi novac za to --
06:59
Or even if you're flat, you might shift money into it.
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čak iako ste na nuli, možete prenamijeniti novac u to.
07:01
But with the type of cuts we're talking about,
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Ali s tipovima rezanja o kojima mi govorimo,
07:03
it will be far, far harder
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bilo bi puno, puno teže
07:05
to get these incentives for excellence,
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dobiti ove poticaje za izvrsnost,
07:07
or to move over
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ili premjestiti se
07:09
to use technology in the new way.
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na korištenje tehnologije na novi način.
07:12
So what's going on?
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Dakle, što se događa?
07:14
Where's the brain trust
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Gdje je trust mozgova
07:16
that's in error here?
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koji ovdje griješi?
07:18
Well there really is no brain trust.
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Zapravo ne postoji trust mozgova.
07:21
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:23
It's sort of the voters. It's sort of us showing up.
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Pomalo su to glasači, pomalo smo to mi koji se pravimo važni.
07:27
Just look at this spending.
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Pogledajte ove troškove.
07:29
California will spend over 100 billion,
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Kalifornija će potrošiti preko 100 milijardi dolara,
07:31
Microsoft, 38,
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Microsoft 38,
07:33
Google, about 19.
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Google otprilike 19.
07:35
The amount of IQ in good numeric analysis,
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Količina IQ-a u dobroj numeričkoj analizi,
07:38
both inside Google and Microsoft
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i unutar i izvan Google-a i Microsofta,
07:40
and outside, with analysts and people of various opinions --
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s analitičarima i ljudima različitog mišljenja --
07:43
should they have spent on that?
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jesu li trebali trošiti na to?
07:45
No, they wasted their money on this. What about this thing? --
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Ne, bez veze su potrošili novac na ovo. A što s ovim? --
07:47
it really is quite phenomenal.
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zaista je fenomenalna.
07:50
Everybody has an opinion.
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Svi imaju mišljenje.
07:52
There's great feedback.
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Odlične su povratne informacije.
07:55
And the numbers are used to make decisions.
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I brojevi se koriste kako bi se donijele odluke.
07:58
If you go over the education spending and the health care spending --
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Ako prođete kroz troškove obrazovanja i troškove zdravstvene skrbi --
08:01
particularly these long-term trends --
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pogotovo ove dugoročne trendove -
08:04
you don't have that type of involvement
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nemate takav tip sudjelovanja
08:06
on a number that's more important
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na broju koji je puno važniji
08:08
in terms of equity, in terms of learning.
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u okvirima pravednosti, okvirima učenja.
08:11
So what do we need to do?
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Dakle što moramo napraviti?
08:13
We need better tools.
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Trebamo bolja pomagala.
08:15
We can get some things out on the Internet.
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Neke stvari možemo staviti na Internet.
08:17
I'm going to use my website
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Ja ću iskoristiti svoju web stranicu
08:19
to put up some things that will give the basic picture.
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kako bih pokazao neke stvari koje će dati osnovnu sliku.
08:21
We need lots more.
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Mi trebamo puno više.
08:23
There's a few good books,
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Postoji nekoliko dobrih knjiga,
08:25
one about school spending and where the money comes from --
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jedna o školskim troškovima i izvorima novca --
08:27
how that's changed over time, and the challenge.
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kako se to mijenjalo preko vremena i izazovu.
08:30
We need better accounting.
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Trebamo bolje knjigovodstvo.
08:32
We need to take the fact
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Trebamo imati na umu činjenicu
08:34
that the current employees, the future liabilities they create,
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da sadašnji zaposlenici, buduća dugovanja koja oni stvore,
08:36
that should come out of the current budget.
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to treba proizaći iz aktualnog proračuna.
08:39
We need to understand why they've done the pension accounting
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Moramo shvatiti zašto su oni uredili mirovinsko obračunavanje
08:41
the way they have.
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tako kako jesu.
08:43
It should be more like private accounting.
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Trebalo bi biti više kao privatno računovodstvo.
08:45
It's the gold standard.
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To je zlatni standard.
08:47
And finally, we need to really reward politicians.
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I na kraju, zaista trebamo nagraditi političare.
08:50
Whenever they say there's these long-term problems,
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Kada god oni ukažu na postojanje tih dugoročnih problema,
08:52
we can't say, "Oh, you're the messenger with bad news?
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ne smijemo reći: „O, ti si glasnik s lošim vijestima?
08:54
We just shot you."
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Upucat ćemo te“.
08:57
In fact, there are some like these:
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Zapravo postoje neki takvi poput
08:59
Erskine Bowles, Alan Simpson and others,
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Eskine Bowles, Alana Simpsona i ostalih,
09:01
who have gone through and given proposals
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koji su prošli kroz to i dali prijedloge
09:04
for this overall federal health-spending state-level problem.
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za ovaj problem općeg federalnog zdravstvenog trošenja na državnoj razini.
09:08
But in fact, their work was sort of pushed off.
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Ali njihov je rad zapravo odgurnut sa strane.
09:10
In fact, the week afterwards,
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Zapravo, tjedan poslije,
09:13
some tax cuts were done
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doneseni su neki porezi
09:15
that made the situation even worse
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koji su situaciju učinili još gorom
09:17
than their assumptions.
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od njihovih pretpostavki.
09:19
So we need these pieces.
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Dakle, trebamo te komade.
09:21
Now I think this is a solvable problem.
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Ja mislim da je ovo rješiv problem.
09:24
It's a great country with lots of people.
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Ovo je divna zemlja s puno ljudi.
09:27
But we have to draw those people in,
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Ali te ljude moramo privući,
09:31
because this is about education.
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jer se radi o obrazovanju.
09:33
And just look at what happened with the tuitions
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Pogledajte samo što se dogodilo sa školarinama
09:35
with the University of California
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Sveučilišta Kalifornije
09:37
and project that out for another three, four, five years --
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i projektom koji će trajati još tri, četiri, pet godina.
09:40
it's unaffordable.
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Ne možemo si ga priuštiti.
09:43
And that's the kind of thing --
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I to je nešto što --
09:45
the investment in the young --
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investicija u mlade --
09:47
that makes us great, allows us to contribute.
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što nas čini velikima, dozvoljava nam da doprinosimo.
09:49
It allows us to do the art,
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Dozvoljava nam da stvaramo umjetnost,
09:51
the biotechnology, the software
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biotehnologiju, softvere
09:54
and all those magic things.
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i sve te magične stvari.
09:57
And so the bottom line is
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Dakle, osnovna poruka je
09:59
we need to care about state budgets
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da nam treba biti stalo do državnih proračuna
10:02
because they're critical for our kids and our future.
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jer su oni ključni za našu djecu i našu budućnost.
10:04
Thank you.
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Hvala vam
10:06
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Bill Gates - PhilanthropistA passionate techie and a shrewd businessman, Bill Gates changed the world while leading Microsoft to dizzying success. Now he's doing it again with his own style of philanthropy and passion for innovation.
Why you should listen
Bill Gates is the founder and former CEO of Microsoft. A geek icon, tech visionary and business trailblazer, Gates' leadership -- fueled by his long-held dream that millions might realize their potential through great software -- made Microsoft a personal computing powerhouse and a trendsetter in the Internet dawn. Whether you're a suit, chef, quant, artist, media maven, nurse or gamer, you've probably used a Microsoft product today.
In summer of 2008, Gates left his day-to-day role with Microsoft to focus on philanthropy. Holding that all lives have equal value (no matter where they're being lived), the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation has now donated staggering sums to HIV/AIDS programs, libraries, agriculture research and disaster relief -- and offered vital guidance and creative funding to programs in global health and education. Gates believes his tech-centric strategy for giving will prove the killer app of planet Earth's next big upgrade.
Read a collection of Bill and Melinda Gates' annual letters, where they take stock of the Gates Foundation and the world. And follow his ongoing thinking on his personal website, The Gates Notes. His new paper, "The Next Epidemic," is published by the New England Journal of Medicine.
Bill Gates | Speaker | TED.com