TED2016
Al Gore: The case for optimism on climate change
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Why is Al Gore optimistic about climate change? In this spirited talk, Gore asks three powerful questions about the man-made forces threatening to destroy our planet -- and the solutions we're designing to combat them. (Featuring Q&A with TED curator Chris Anderson)
Al Gore - Climate advocate
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I was excited to be a part
of the "Dream" theme,
of the "Dream" theme,
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and then I found out I'm leading off
the "Nightmare?" section of it.
the "Nightmare?" section of it.
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(Laughter)
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And certainly there are things
about the climate crisis that qualify.
about the climate crisis that qualify.
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And I have some bad news,
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but I have a lot more good news.
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I'm going to propose three questions
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and the answer to the first one
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necessarily involves a little bad news.
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But -- hang on, because the answers
to the second and third questions
to the second and third questions
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really are very positive.
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So the first question is,
"Do we really have to change?"
"Do we really have to change?"
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And of course, the Apollo Mission,
among other things
among other things
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changed the environmental movement,
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really launched the modern
environmental movement
environmental movement
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18 months after this Earthrise picture
was first seen on earth,
was first seen on earth,
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the first Earth Day was organized.
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And we learned a lot about ourselves
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looking back at our planet from space.
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And one of the things that we learned
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confirmed what the scientists
have long told us.
have long told us.
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One of the most essential facts
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about the climate crisis
has to do with the sky.
has to do with the sky.
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As this picture illustrates,
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the sky is not the vast
and limitless expanse
and limitless expanse
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that appears when we look up
from the ground.
from the ground.
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It is a very thin shell of atmosphere
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surrounding the planet.
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That right now is the open sewer
for our industrial civilization
for our industrial civilization
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as it's currently organized.
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We are spewing 110 million tons
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of heat-trapping global warming pollution
into it every 24 hours,
into it every 24 hours,
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free of charge, go ahead.
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And there are many sources
of the greenhouse gases,
of the greenhouse gases,
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I'm certainly not going
to go through them all.
to go through them all.
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I'm going to focus on the main one,
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but agriculture is involved,
diet is involved, population is involved.
diet is involved, population is involved.
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Management of forests, transportation,
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the oceans, the melting of the permafrost.
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But I'm going to focus
on the heart of the problem,
on the heart of the problem,
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which is the fact that we still rely
on dirty, carbon-based fuels
on dirty, carbon-based fuels
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for 85 percent of all the energy
that our world burns every year.
that our world burns every year.
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And you can see from this image
that after World War II,
that after World War II,
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the emission rates
started really accelerating.
started really accelerating.
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And the accumulated amount
of man-made, global warming pollution
of man-made, global warming pollution
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that is up in the atmosphere now
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traps as much extra heat energy
as would be released
as would be released
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by 400,000 Hiroshima-class
atomic bombs exploding
atomic bombs exploding
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every 24 hours, 365 days a year.
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Fact-checked over and over again,
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conservative, it's the truth.
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Now it's a big planet, but --
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(Explosion sound)
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that is a lot of energy,
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particularly when you multiply it
400,000 times per day.
400,000 times per day.
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And all that extra heat energy
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is heating up the atmosphere,
the whole earth system.
the whole earth system.
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Let's look at the atmosphere.
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This is a depiction
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of what we used to think of as
the normal distribution of temperatures.
the normal distribution of temperatures.
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The white represents
normal temperature days;
normal temperature days;
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1951-1980 are arbitrarily chosen.
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The blue are cooler than average days,
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the red are warmer than average days.
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But the entire curve has moved
to the right in the 1980s.
to the right in the 1980s.
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And you'll see
in the lower right-hand corner
in the lower right-hand corner
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the appearance of statistically
significant numbers
significant numbers
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of extremely hot days.
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In the 90s, the curve shifted further.
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And in the last 10 years,
you see the extremely hot days
you see the extremely hot days
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are now more numerous
than the cooler than average days.
than the cooler than average days.
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In fact, they are 150 times more common
on the surface of the earth
on the surface of the earth
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than they were just 30 years ago.
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So we're having
record-breaking temperatures.
record-breaking temperatures.
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Fourteen of the 15 of the hottest years
ever measured with instruments
ever measured with instruments
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have been in this young century.
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The hottest of all was last year.
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Last month was the 371st month in a row
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warmer than the 20th-century average.
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And for the first time,
not only the warmest January,
not only the warmest January,
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but for the first time, it was more
than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer
than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer
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than the average.
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These higher temperatures
are having an effect on animals,
are having an effect on animals,
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plants, people, ecosystems.
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But on a global basis, 93 percent
of all the extra heat energy
of all the extra heat energy
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is trapped in the oceans.
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And the scientists can measure
the heat buildup
the heat buildup
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much more precisely now
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at all depths: deep, mid-ocean,
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the first few hundred meters.
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And this, too, is accelerating.
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It goes back more than a century.
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And more than half of the increase
has been in the last 19 years.
has been in the last 19 years.
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This has consequences.
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The first order of consequence:
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the ocean-based storms get stronger.
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Super Typhoon Haiyan
went over areas of the Pacific
went over areas of the Pacific
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five and a half degrees Fahrenheit
warmer than normal
warmer than normal
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before it slammed into Tacloban,
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as the most destructive storm
ever to make landfall.
ever to make landfall.
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Pope Francis, who has made
such a difference to this whole issue,
such a difference to this whole issue,
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visited Tacloban right after that.
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Superstorm Sandy went over
areas of the Atlantic
areas of the Atlantic
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nine degrees warmer than normal
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before slamming into
New York and New Jersey.
New York and New Jersey.
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The second order of consequences
are affecting all of us right now.
are affecting all of us right now.
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The warmer oceans are evaporating
much more water vapor into the skies.
much more water vapor into the skies.
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Average humidity worldwide
has gone up four percent.
has gone up four percent.
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And it creates these atmospheric rivers.
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The Brazilian scientists
call them "flying rivers."
call them "flying rivers."
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And they funnel all of that
extra water vapor over the land
extra water vapor over the land
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where storm conditions trigger
these massive record-breaking downpours.
these massive record-breaking downpours.
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This is from Montana.
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Take a look at this storm last August.
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As it moves over Tucson, Arizona.
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It literally splashes off the city.
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These downpours are really unusual.
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Last July in Houston, Texas,
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it rained for two days,
162 billion gallons.
162 billion gallons.
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That represents more than two days
of the full flow of Niagara Falls
of the full flow of Niagara Falls
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in the middle of the city,
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which was, of course, paralyzed.
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These record downpours are creating
historic floods and mudslides.
historic floods and mudslides.
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This one is from Chile last year.
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And you'll see that warehouse going by.
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There are oil tankers cars going by.
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This is from Spain last September,
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you could call this the running
of the cars and trucks, I guess.
of the cars and trucks, I guess.
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Every night on the TV news now
is like a nature hike
is like a nature hike
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through the Book of Revelation.
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(Laughter)
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I mean, really.
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The insurance industry
has certainly noticed,
has certainly noticed,
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the losses have been mounting up.
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They're not under any illusions
about what's happening.
about what's happening.
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And the causality requires
a moment of discussion.
a moment of discussion.
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We're used to thinking of linear cause
and linear effect --
and linear effect --
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one cause, one effect.
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This is systemic causation.
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As the great Kevin Trenberth says,
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"All storms are different now.
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There's so much extra energy
in the atmosphere,
in the atmosphere,
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there's so much extra water vapor.
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Every storm is different now."
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So, the same extra heat pulls
the soil moisture out of the ground
the soil moisture out of the ground
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and causes these deeper, longer,
more pervasive droughts
more pervasive droughts
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and many of them are underway right now.
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It dries out the vegetation
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and causes more fires
in the western part of North America.
in the western part of North America.
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There's certainly been evidence
of that, a lot of them.
of that, a lot of them.
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More lightning,
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as the heat energy builds up,
a considerable amount
a considerable amount
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of additional lightning also.
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These climate-related disasters also have
geopolitical consequences
geopolitical consequences
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and create instability.
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The climate-related historic drought
that started in Syria in 2006
that started in Syria in 2006
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destroyed 60 percent
of the farms in Syria,
of the farms in Syria,
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killed 80 percent of the livestock,
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and drove 1.5 million climate refugees
into the cities of Syria,
into the cities of Syria,
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where they collided with another
1.5 million refugees
1.5 million refugees
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from the Iraq War.
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And along with other factors,
that opened the gates of Hell
that opened the gates of Hell
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that people are trying to close now.
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The US Defense Department has long warned
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of consequences from the climate crisis,
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including refugees,
food and water shortages
food and water shortages
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and pandemic disease.
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Right now we're seeing microbial diseases
from the tropics spread
from the tropics spread
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to the higher latitudes;
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the transportation revolution has had
a lot to do with this.
a lot to do with this.
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But the changing conditions
change the latitudes in the areas
change the latitudes in the areas
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where these microbial diseases
can become endemic
can become endemic
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and change the range of the vectors,
like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.
like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.
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The Zika epidemic now --
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we're better positioned in North America
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because it's still a little too cool
and we have a better public health system.
and we have a better public health system.
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But when women in some regions
of South and Central America
of South and Central America
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are advised not to get pregnant
for two years --
for two years --
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that's something new,
that ought to get our attention.
that ought to get our attention.
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The Lancet, one of the two greatest
medical journals in the world,
medical journals in the world,
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last summer labeled this
a medical emergency now.
a medical emergency now.
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And there are many factors because of it.
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This is also connected
to the extinction crisis.
to the extinction crisis.
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We're in danger of losing 50 percent
of all the living species on earth
of all the living species on earth
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by the end of this century.
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And already, land-based plants and animals
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are now moving towards the poles
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at an average rate of 15 feet per day.
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Speaking of the North Pole,
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last December 29, the same storm
that caused historic flooding
that caused historic flooding
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in the American Midwest,
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raised temperatures at the North Pole
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50 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal,
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causing the thawing of the North Pole
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in the middle of the long,
dark, winter, polar night.
dark, winter, polar night.
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And when the land-based ice
of the Arctic melts,
of the Arctic melts,
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it raises sea level.
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Paul Nicklen's beautiful photograph
from Svalbard illustrates this.
from Svalbard illustrates this.
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It's more dangerous coming off Greenland
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and particularly, Antarctica.
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The 10 largest risk cities
for sea-level rise by population
for sea-level rise by population
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are mostly in South and Southeast Asia.
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When you measure it by assets at risk,
number one is Miami:
number one is Miami:
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three and a half trillion dollars at risk.
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Number three: New York and Newark.
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I was in Miami last fall
during the supermoon,
during the supermoon,
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one of the highest high-tide days.
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And there were fish from the ocean
swimming in some of the streets
swimming in some of the streets
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of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale
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and Del Rey.
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And this happens regularly
during the highest-tide tides now.
during the highest-tide tides now.
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Not with rain -- they call it
"sunny-day flooding."
"sunny-day flooding."
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It comes up through the storm sewers.
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And the Mayor of Miami
speaks for many when he says
speaks for many when he says
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it is long past time this can be viewed
through a partisan lens.
through a partisan lens.
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This is a crisis
that's getting worse day by day.
that's getting worse day by day.
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We have to move beyond partisanship.
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And I want to take a moment
to honor these House Republicans --
to honor these House Republicans --
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(Applause)
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who had the courage last fall
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to step out and take a political risk,
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by telling the truth
about the climate crisis.
about the climate crisis.
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So the cost of the climate
crisis is mounting up,
crisis is mounting up,
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there are many of these aspects
I haven't even mentioned.
I haven't even mentioned.
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It's an enormous burden.
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I'll mention just one more,
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because the World Economic Forum
last month in Davos,
last month in Davos,
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after their annual survey
of 750 economists,
of 750 economists,
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said the climate crisis is now
the number one risk
the number one risk
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to the global economy.
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So you get central bankers
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like Mark Carney, the head
of the UK Central Bank,
of the UK Central Bank,
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saying the vast majority
of the carbon reserves are unburnable.
of the carbon reserves are unburnable.
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Subprime carbon.
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I'm not going to remind you what happened
with subprime mortgages,
with subprime mortgages,
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but it's the same thing.
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If you look at all of the carbon fuels
that were burned
that were burned
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since the beginning
of the industrial revolution,
of the industrial revolution,
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this is the quantity burned
in the last 16 years.
in the last 16 years.
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Here are all the ones that are proven
and left on the books,
and left on the books,
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28 trillion dollars.
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The International Energy Agency
says only this amount can be burned.
says only this amount can be burned.
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So the rest, 22 trillion dollars --
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unburnable.
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Risk to the global economy.
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12:41
That's why divestment movement
makes practical sense
makes practical sense
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12:44
and is not just a moral imperative.
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12:47
So the answer to the first question,
"Must we change?"
"Must we change?"
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12:51
is yes, we have to change.
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12:53
Second question, "Can we change?"
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12:55
This is the exciting news!
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12:57
The best projections
in the world 16 years ago
in the world 16 years ago
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13:01
were that by 2010, the world
would be able to install
would be able to install
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13:05
30 gigawatts of wind capacity.
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13:07
We beat that mark
by 14 and a half times over.
by 14 and a half times over.
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13:12
We see an exponential curve
for wind installations now.
for wind installations now.
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13:16
We see the cost coming down dramatically.
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13:19
Some countries -- take Germany,
an industrial powerhouse
an industrial powerhouse
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13:22
with a climate not that different
from Vancouver's, by the way --
from Vancouver's, by the way --
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13:26
one day last December,
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13:28
got 81 percent of all its energy
from renewable resources,
from renewable resources,
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13:31
mainly solar and wind.
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13:33
A lot of countries are getting
more than half on an average basis.
more than half on an average basis.
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13:36
More good news:
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13:37
energy storage,
from batteries particularly,
from batteries particularly,
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13:40
is now beginning to take off
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13:42
because the cost has been
coming down very dramatically
coming down very dramatically
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3793
13:46
to solve the intermittency problem.
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13:47
With solar, the news is even
more exciting!
more exciting!
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13:50
The best projections 14 years ago
were that we would install
were that we would install
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13:53
one gigawatt per year by 2010.
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13:56
When 2010 came around,
we beat that mark by 17 times over.
we beat that mark by 17 times over.
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14:01
Last year, we beat it by 58 times over.
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14:04
This year, we're on track
to beat it 68 times over.
to beat it 68 times over.
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14:07
We're going to win this.
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1190
14:09
We are going to prevail.
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14:10
The exponential curve on solar
is even steeper and more dramatic.
is even steeper and more dramatic.
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4083
14:14
When I came to this stage 10 years ago,
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1929
14:16
this is where it was.
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14:18
We have seen a revolutionary breakthrough
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14:22
in the emergence
of these exponential curves.
of these exponential curves.
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14:25
(Applause)
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14:28
And the cost has come down
10 percent per year
10 percent per year
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14:32
for 30 years.
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14:33
And it's continuing to come down.
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14:36
Now, the business community
has certainly noticed this,
has certainly noticed this,
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2646
14:38
because it's crossing
the grid parity point.
the grid parity point.
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2809
14:41
Cheaper solar penetration rates
are beginning to rise.
are beginning to rise.
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3252
14:44
Grid parity is understood
as that line, that threshold,
as that line, that threshold,
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3516
14:48
below which renewable electricity
is cheaper than electricity
is cheaper than electricity
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3874
14:52
from burning fossil fuels.
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2218
14:54
That threshold is a little bit
like the difference
like the difference
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2693
14:57
between 32 degrees Fahrenheit
and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,
and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,
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4110
15:01
or zero and one Celsius.
293
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1586
15:03
It's a difference of more than one degree,
294
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2024
15:05
it's the difference between ice and water.
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2701
15:07
And it's the difference between markets
that are frozen up,
that are frozen up,
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3944
15:11
and liquid flows of capital
into new opportunities for investment.
into new opportunities for investment.
297
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4532
15:16
This is the biggest
new business opportunity
new business opportunity
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3605
15:19
in the history of the world,
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1532
15:21
and two-thirds of it
is in the private sector.
is in the private sector.
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3148
15:24
We are seeing an explosion
of new investment.
of new investment.
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3436
15:28
Starting in 2010, investments globally
in renewable electricity generation
in renewable electricity generation
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5568
15:33
surpassed fossils.
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1533
15:35
The gap has been growing ever since.
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2416
15:37
The projections for the future
are even more dramatic,
are even more dramatic,
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2948
15:40
even though fossil energy
is now still subsidized
is now still subsidized
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3599
15:44
at a rate 40 times larger than renewables.
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3227
15:47
And by the way, if you add
the projections for nuclear on here,
the projections for nuclear on here,
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4090
15:51
particularly if you assume
that the work many are doing
that the work many are doing
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2621
15:54
to try to break through to safer
and more acceptable,
and more acceptable,
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2714
15:57
more affordable forms of nuclear,
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1839
15:58
this could change even more dramatically.
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2443
16:01
So is there any precedent
for such a rapid adoption
for such a rapid adoption
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2956
16:04
of a new technology?
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1729
16:06
Well, there are many,
but let's look at cell phones.
but let's look at cell phones.
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2460
16:09
In 1980, AT&T, then Ma Bell,
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3373
16:12
commissioned McKinsey to do
a global market survey
a global market survey
317
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2393
16:14
of those clunky new mobile phones
that appeared then.
that appeared then.
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3616
16:18
"How many can we sell
by the year 2000?" they asked.
by the year 2000?" they asked.
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3163
16:21
McKinsey came back and said, "900,000."
320
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2568
16:24
And sure enough,
when the year 2000 arrived,
when the year 2000 arrived,
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2072
16:26
they did sell 900,000 --
in the first three days.
in the first three days.
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2578
16:29
And for the balance of the year,
they sold 120 times more.
they sold 120 times more.
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3912
16:33
And now there are more cell connections
than there are people in the world.
than there are people in the world.
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4376
16:37
So, why were they not only wrong,
but way wrong?
but way wrong?
325
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4469
16:41
I've asked that question myself, "Why?"
326
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2400
16:44
(Laughter)
327
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1003
16:45
And I think the answer is in three parts.
328
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2233
16:48
First, the cost came down much faster
than anybody expected,
than anybody expected,
329
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3389
16:51
even as the quality went up.
330
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2507
16:54
And low-income countries, places
that did not have a landline grid --
that did not have a landline grid --
331
1002066
4272
16:58
they leap-frogged to the new technology.
332
1006362
2228
17:00
The big expansion has been
in the developing counties.
in the developing counties.
333
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3064
17:03
So what about the electricity grids
in the developing world?
in the developing world?
334
1011702
3748
17:07
Well, not so hot.
335
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1730
17:09
And in many areas, they don't exist.
336
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2298
17:11
There are more people
without any electricity at all in India
without any electricity at all in India
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3146
17:14
than the entire population
of the United States of America.
of the United States of America.
338
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3122
17:17
So now we're getting this:
339
1025866
1504
17:19
solar panels on grass huts
340
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1838
17:21
and new business models
that make it affordable.
that make it affordable.
341
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2938
17:24
Muhammad Yunus financed
this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.
this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.
342
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4885
17:29
This is a village market.
343
1037127
1708
17:30
Bangladesh is now the fastest-deploying
country in the world:
country in the world:
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1038859
2890
17:33
two systems per minute
on average, night and day.
on average, night and day.
345
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2412
17:36
And we have all we need:
346
1044209
1189
17:37
enough energy from the Sun
comes to the Earth
comes to the Earth
347
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2292
17:39
every hour to supply the full world's
energy needs for an entire year.
energy needs for an entire year.
348
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5363
17:45
It's actually a little bit
less than an hour.
less than an hour.
349
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2173
17:47
So the answer to the second question,
"Can we change?"
"Can we change?"
350
1055322
3332
17:50
is clearly "Yes."
351
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1923
17:52
And it's an ever-firmer "yes."
352
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2772
17:55
Last question, "Will we change?"
353
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2608
17:58
Paris really was a breakthrough,
354
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1992
18:00
some of the provisions are binding
355
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1663
18:01
and the regular reviews will matter a lot.
356
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2038
18:03
But nations aren't waiting,
they're going ahead.
they're going ahead.
357
1071818
2251
18:06
China has already announced
that starting next year,
that starting next year,
358
1074093
2515
18:08
they're adopting a nationwide
cap and trade system.
cap and trade system.
359
1076632
2983
18:11
They will likely link up
with the European Union.
with the European Union.
360
1079639
3143
18:14
The United States
has already been changing.
has already been changing.
361
1082806
2492
18:17
All of these coal plants were proposed
362
1085322
2050
18:19
in the next 10 years and canceled.
363
1087396
2530
18:21
All of these existing
coal plants were retired.
coal plants were retired.
364
1089950
2919
18:24
All of these coal plants have had
their retirement announced.
their retirement announced.
365
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3017
18:27
All of them -- canceled.
366
1095934
2328
18:30
We are moving forward.
367
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1490
18:31
Last year -- if you look at
all of the investment
all of the investment
368
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2468
18:34
in new electricity generation
in the United States,
in the United States,
369
1102292
2943
18:37
almost three-quarters
was from renewable energy,
was from renewable energy,
370
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2666
18:39
mostly wind and solar.
371
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2512
18:42
We are solving this crisis.
372
1110485
3147
18:45
The only question is:
how long will it take to get there?
how long will it take to get there?
373
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4899
18:50
So, it matters that a lot
of people are organizing
of people are organizing
374
1118579
4617
18:55
to insist on this change.
375
1123220
2138
18:57
Almost 400,000 people
marched in New York City
marched in New York City
376
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3784
19:01
before the UN special session on this.
377
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2847
19:04
Many thousands, tens of thousands,
378
1132061
2004
19:06
marched in cities around the world.
379
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2873
19:08
And so, I am extremely optimistic.
380
1136986
4143
19:13
As I said before,
we are going to win this.
we are going to win this.
381
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2555
19:15
I'll finish with this story.
382
1143732
1967
19:18
When I was 13 years old,
383
1146218
2592
19:20
I heard that proposal by President Kennedy
384
1148834
3431
19:24
to land a person on the Moon
and bring him back safely
and bring him back safely
385
1152289
2551
19:26
in 10 years.
386
1154864
1165
19:28
And I heard adults
of that day and time say,
of that day and time say,
387
1156053
2984
19:31
"That's reckless, expensive,
may well fail."
may well fail."
388
1159061
3517
19:34
But eight years and two months later,
389
1162602
2177
19:36
in the moment that Neil Armstrong
set foot on the Moon,
set foot on the Moon,
390
1164803
3262
19:40
there was great cheer that went up
in NASA's mission control in Houston.
in NASA's mission control in Houston.
391
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4590
19:44
Here's a little-known fact about that:
392
1172703
2460
19:47
the average age of the systems engineers,
393
1175187
2205
19:49
the controllers in the room
that day, was 26,
that day, was 26,
394
1177416
3176
19:52
which means, among other things,
395
1180616
1559
19:54
their age, when they heard
that challenge, was 18.
that challenge, was 18.
396
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3250
19:57
We now have a moral challenge
397
1185473
3202
20:00
that is in the tradition of others
that we have faced.
that we have faced.
398
1188699
3530
20:04
One of the greatest poets
of the last century in the US,
of the last century in the US,
399
1192253
3654
20:07
Wallace Stevens,
400
1195931
1349
20:09
wrote a line that has stayed with me:
401
1197304
1818
20:11
"After the final 'no,'
there comes a 'yes,'
there comes a 'yes,'
402
1199146
2483
20:13
and on that 'yes',
the future world depends."
the future world depends."
403
1201653
2981
20:16
When the abolitionists
started their movement,
started their movement,
404
1204658
2285
20:18
they met with no after no after no.
405
1206967
2207
20:21
And then came a yes.
406
1209198
1276
20:22
The Women's Suffrage
and Women's Rights Movement
and Women's Rights Movement
407
1210498
2389
20:24
met endless no's, until finally,
there was a yes.
there was a yes.
408
1212911
3595
20:28
The Civil Rights Movement,
the movement against apartheid,
the movement against apartheid,
409
1216530
2771
20:31
and more recently, the movement
for gay and lesbian rights
for gay and lesbian rights
410
1219325
3591
20:34
here in the United States and elsewhere.
411
1222940
2405
20:37
After the final "no" comes a "yes."
412
1225369
2176
20:39
When any great moral challenge
is ultimately resolved
is ultimately resolved
413
1227569
5133
20:44
into a binary choice
between what is right and what is wrong,
between what is right and what is wrong,
414
1232726
3855
20:48
the outcome is fore-ordained
because of who we are as human beings.
because of who we are as human beings.
415
1236605
4129
20:52
Ninety-nine percent of us,
that is where we are now
that is where we are now
416
1240758
3853
20:56
and it is why we're going to win this.
417
1244635
2492
20:59
We have everything we need.
418
1247151
1938
21:01
Some still doubt that we have
the will to act,
the will to act,
419
1249113
3415
21:04
but I say the will to act is itself
a renewable resource.
a renewable resource.
420
1252552
4690
21:09
Thank you very much.
421
1257266
1207
21:10
(Applause)
422
1258497
3471
21:47
Chris Anderson: You've got this incredible
combination of skills.
combination of skills.
423
1295319
3183
21:50
You've got this scientist mind
that can understand
that can understand
424
1298526
2961
21:53
the full range of issues,
425
1301511
2301
21:55
and the ability to turn it
into the most vivid language.
into the most vivid language.
426
1303836
3652
21:59
No one else can do that,
that's why you led this thing.
that's why you led this thing.
427
1307512
2883
22:02
It was amazing to see it 10 years ago,
it was amazing to see it now.
it was amazing to see it now.
428
1310419
3411
22:05
Al Gore: Well, you're nice
to say that, Chris.
to say that, Chris.
429
1313854
2175
22:08
But honestly, I have a lot
of really good friends
of really good friends
430
1316053
3161
22:11
in the scientific community
who are incredibly patient
who are incredibly patient
431
1319238
3719
22:14
and who will sit there
and explain this stuff to me
and explain this stuff to me
432
1322981
2771
22:17
over and over and over again
433
1325776
1334
22:19
until I can get it
into simple enough language
into simple enough language
434
1327134
3596
22:22
that I can understand it.
435
1330754
1212
22:23
And that's the key to trying
to communicate.
to communicate.
436
1331990
2928
22:27
CA: So, your talk. First part: terrifying,
437
1335497
3685
22:31
second part: incredibly hopeful.
438
1339206
1937
22:33
How do we know that all those graphs,
all that progress, is enough
all that progress, is enough
439
1341810
5301
22:39
to solve what you showed
in the first part?
in the first part?
440
1347135
2728
22:41
AG: I think that the crossing --
441
1349887
3528
22:45
you know, I've only been
in the business world for 15 years.
in the business world for 15 years.
442
1353439
3013
22:48
But one of the things I've learned
is that apparently it matters
is that apparently it matters
443
1356476
3278
22:51
if a new product or service
is more expensive
is more expensive
444
1359778
3164
22:54
than the incumbent, or cheaper than.
445
1362966
2154
22:57
Turns out, it makes a difference
if it's cheaper than.
if it's cheaper than.
446
1365144
2555
22:59
(Laughter)
447
1367723
1095
23:00
And when it crosses that line,
448
1368842
2694
23:03
then a lot of things really change.
449
1371560
1896
23:05
We are regularly surprised
by these developments.
by these developments.
450
1373480
2945
23:08
The late Rudi Dornbusch,
the great economist said,
the great economist said,
451
1376449
2547
23:11
"Things take longer to happen
then you think they will,
then you think they will,
452
1379020
2796
23:13
and then they happen much faster
than you thought they could."
than you thought they could."
453
1381840
2958
23:16
I really think that's where we are.
454
1384822
1698
23:18
Some people are using the phrase
"The Solar Singularity" now,
"The Solar Singularity" now,
455
1386544
3677
23:22
meaning when it gets
below the grid parity,
below the grid parity,
456
1390245
3293
23:25
unsubsidized in most places,
457
1393562
2048
23:27
then it's the default choice.
458
1395634
1642
23:29
Now, in one of the presentations
yesterday, the jitney thing,
yesterday, the jitney thing,
459
1397300
5990
23:35
there is an effort to use
regulations to slow this down.
regulations to slow this down.
460
1403314
5107
23:40
And I just don't think it's going to work.
461
1408445
3139
23:44
There's a woman in Atlanta, Debbie Dooley,
462
1412608
2396
23:47
who's the Chairman
of the Atlanta Tea Party.
of the Atlanta Tea Party.
463
1415028
2081
23:49
They enlisted her
in this effort to put a tax
in this effort to put a tax
464
1417133
2177
23:51
on solar panels and regulations.
465
1419334
2123
23:53
And she had just put
solar panels on her roof
solar panels on her roof
466
1421481
2119
23:55
and she didn't understand the request.
467
1423624
1866
23:57
(Laughter)
468
1425514
1765
23:59
And so she went and formed
an alliance with the Sierra Club
an alliance with the Sierra Club
469
1427303
3478
24:02
and they formed a new organization
called the Green Tea Party.
called the Green Tea Party.
470
1430805
4053
24:06
(Laughter)
471
1434882
1002
24:07
(Applause)
472
1435908
1001
24:08
And they defeated the proposal.
473
1436933
1488
24:10
So, finally, the answer
to your question is,
to your question is,
474
1438445
3226
24:13
this sounds a little corny
and maybe it's a cliché,
and maybe it's a cliché,
475
1441695
3033
24:16
but 10 years ago -- and Christiana
referred to this --
referred to this --
476
1444752
3516
24:20
there are people in this audience
who played an incredibly significant role
who played an incredibly significant role
477
1448292
5907
24:26
in generating those exponential curves.
478
1454223
2801
24:29
And it didn't work out economically
for some of them,
for some of them,
479
1457048
2524
24:31
but it kick-started
this global revolution.
this global revolution.
480
1459596
3054
24:34
And what people in this audience do now
481
1462674
3779
24:38
with the knowledge
that we are going to win this.
that we are going to win this.
482
1466477
2505
24:41
But it matters a lot how fast we win it.
483
1469006
4230
24:45
CA: Al Gore, that was incredibly powerful.
484
1473260
2357
24:47
If this turns out to be the year,
485
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that the partisan thing changes,
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as you said, it's no longer
a partisan issue,
a partisan issue,
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but you bring along people
from the other side together,
from the other side together,
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backed by science, backed by these kinds
of investment opportunities,
of investment opportunities,
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backed my reason that you win the day --
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boy, that's really exciting.
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Thank you so much.
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AG: Thank you so much
for bringing me back to TED.
for bringing me back to TED.
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Thank you!
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(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Al Gore - Climate advocateNobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions.
Why you should listen
Former Vice President Al Gore is co-founder and chairman of Generation Investment Management. While he’s is a senior partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and a member of Apple, Inc.’s board of directors, Gore spends the majority of his time as chair of The Climate Reality Project, a nonprofit devoted to solving the climate crisis.
He is the author of the bestsellers Earth in the Balance, An Inconvenient Truth, The Assault on Reason, Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis, and most recently, The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change. He is the subject of the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth and is the co-recipient, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 for “informing the world of the dangers posed by climate change.”
Gore was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1976, 1978, 1980 and 1982 and the U.S. Senate in 1984 and 1990. He was inaugurated as the 45th Vice President of the United States on January 20, 1993, and served eight years.
Al Gore | Speaker | TED.com