TED2016
Al Gore: The case for optimism on climate change
Al Gore: Razlog za optimizam kod klimatskih promjena
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Al Gore postavlja tri pitanja o klimatskim promjenama i našoj budućnosti. Prvo: Moramo li se promijeniti? Svaki dan globalnim zatopljenjem zadržava se onoliko toplinske energije koliko bi iznosilo 400.000 hirošimskih atomskih bombi. Ta toplina prouzrokuje jače oluje i ekstemnije poplave. Kako kaže: "Svake večeri na vijestima čini nam se da gledamo prizore iz Otkrivenja." Drugo pitanje: Možemo li se promijeniti? Već smo počeli. Bitno pitanje glasi: Hoćemo li se promijeniti? U ovom inspirativnom govoru, Gore kaže - da. "Kada se svaki veliki moralni izazov svede na binarni izbor između onoga što je pravo, a što krivo, rezultat je već predodređen time kakvi smo mi kao ljudska bića," kaže. "Zato ćemo pobijediti."
Al Gore - Climate advocate
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I was excited to be a part
of the "Dream" theme,
of the "Dream" theme,
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Bio sam uzbuđen što sam
dio tima iz "snova",
dio tima iz "snova",
00:17
and then I found out I'm leading off
the "Nightmare?" section of it.
the "Nightmare?" section of it.
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a tada sam saznao da sam
započeo dio sna koji je noćna mora.
započeo dio sna koji je noćna mora.
00:20
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:23
And certainly there are things
about the climate crisis that qualify.
about the climate crisis that qualify.
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Zasigurno ima aspekata klimatske krize
koji ulaze u tu kategoriju.
koji ulaze u tu kategoriju.
00:28
And I have some bad news,
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Imam neke loše vijesti za vas,
00:30
but I have a lot more good news.
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ali još više je dobrih vijesti.
00:32
I'm going to propose three questions
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Predložit ću tri pitanja
00:36
and the answer to the first one
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i odgovor na prvo pitanje
00:39
necessarily involves a little bad news.
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nužno uključuje malo loših vijesti.
00:41
But -- hang on, because the answers
to the second and third questions
to the second and third questions
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No -- pričekajte, jer su odgovori
na drugo i treće pitanje
na drugo i treće pitanje
00:46
really are very positive.
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zaista pozitivni.
00:49
So the first question is,
"Do we really have to change?"
"Do we really have to change?"
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Prvo pitanje je, "Moramo li se
doista promijeniti?"
doista promijeniti?"
00:54
And of course, the Apollo Mission,
among other things
among other things
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Naravno, Misija Apollo je među ostalima,
00:59
changed the environmental movement,
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promijenila ekološki pokret,
01:01
really launched the modern
environmental movement
environmental movement
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zaista je pokrenula
moderni ekološki pokret.
moderni ekološki pokret.
01:04
18 months after this Earthrise picture
was first seen on earth,
was first seen on earth,
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18 mjeseci nakon što je ova slika
po prvi puta viđena na Zemlji,
po prvi puta viđena na Zemlji,
01:08
the first Earth Day was organized.
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organizirali smo prvi Dan Planeta Zemlje.
01:11
And we learned a lot about ourselves
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Naučili smo mnogo o sebi
01:14
looking back at our planet from space.
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promatrajući naš planet iz svemira.
01:17
And one of the things that we learned
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Jedna od stvari koje smo naučili
01:19
confirmed what the scientists
have long told us.
have long told us.
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potvrdila je to što su nam
znanstvenici dugo govorili.
znanstvenici dugo govorili.
01:21
One of the most essential facts
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Jedna od ključnih činjenica
01:23
about the climate crisis
has to do with the sky.
has to do with the sky.
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vezana uz klimatsku krizu tiče se neba.
01:26
As this picture illustrates,
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Kako ova slika prikazuje,
01:28
the sky is not the vast
and limitless expanse
and limitless expanse
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nebo nije nepregledan i beskrajan prostor
01:31
that appears when we look up
from the ground.
from the ground.
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koji vidimo kada dignemo pogled s tla.
01:34
It is a very thin shell of atmosphere
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Ono je vrlo tanki omotač atmosfere
01:38
surrounding the planet.
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koji okružuje planet.
01:40
That right now is the open sewer
for our industrial civilization
for our industrial civilization
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To je trenutno otvorena kanalizacija
naše industrijske civilizacije,
naše industrijske civilizacije,
01:45
as it's currently organized.
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tako je trenutno organizirana.
01:47
We are spewing 110 million tons
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Svakih 24 sata u nju
ubacimo 110 milijuna tona
ubacimo 110 milijuna tona
01:51
of heat-trapping global warming pollution
into it every 24 hours,
into it every 24 hours,
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zagađivača koji zadržavaju toplinu
i uzrokuju globalno zatopljenje,
i uzrokuju globalno zatopljenje,
01:56
free of charge, go ahead.
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bez naknade, samo izvolite.
01:58
And there are many sources
of the greenhouse gases,
of the greenhouse gases,
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Postoji mnogo izvora stakleničkih plinova,
02:01
I'm certainly not going
to go through them all.
to go through them all.
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i neću proći kroz sve njih.
02:03
I'm going to focus on the main one,
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Fokusirat ću se na glavni izvor,
02:05
but agriculture is involved,
diet is involved, population is involved.
diet is involved, population is involved.
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no uključuje poljoprivredu,
prehranu i populaciju.
prehranu i populaciju.
02:09
Management of forests, transportation,
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Održavanje šuma, prijevoz,
02:11
the oceans, the melting of the permafrost.
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oceane, otapanje područja vječnog leda.
02:14
But I'm going to focus
on the heart of the problem,
on the heart of the problem,
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No, fokusirat ću se na središte problema,
02:16
which is the fact that we still rely
on dirty, carbon-based fuels
on dirty, carbon-based fuels
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koje je činjenica da se još uvijek
oslanjamo na prljava ugljična goriva
oslanjamo na prljava ugljična goriva
02:21
for 85 percent of all the energy
that our world burns every year.
that our world burns every year.
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za 85 posto ukupne energije koju
naš svijet sagori svake godine.
naš svijet sagori svake godine.
02:27
And you can see from this image
that after World War II,
that after World War II,
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Ovdje možete vidjeti da se
nakon Drugog svjetskog rata
nakon Drugog svjetskog rata
02:31
the emission rates
started really accelerating.
started really accelerating.
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ispuštanje plinova počelo ubrzavati.
02:34
And the accumulated amount
of man-made, global warming pollution
of man-made, global warming pollution
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Akumulirana količina naših zagađivača
koji uzokuju globalno zatopljenje
koji uzokuju globalno zatopljenje
02:37
that is up in the atmosphere now
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sada se nalaze u atmosferi
02:39
traps as much extra heat energy
as would be released
as would be released
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i zadržava istu količinu dodatne toplinske
energije koja bi bila oslobođena
energije koja bi bila oslobođena
02:43
by 400,000 Hiroshima-class
atomic bombs exploding
atomic bombs exploding
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pri eksploziji četiristo tisuća
hirošimskih atomskih bombi
hirošimskih atomskih bombi
02:48
every 24 hours, 365 days a year.
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svakih 24 sata, 365 dana u godini.
02:52
Fact-checked over and over again,
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Taj podatak je opetovano
02:54
conservative, it's the truth.
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bio provjeravan i istinit je.
02:56
Now it's a big planet, but --
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Imamo veliki planet, ali --
02:59
(Explosion sound)
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(zvuk eksplozije)
03:01
that is a lot of energy,
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to je jako puno energije,
03:02
particularly when you multiply it
400,000 times per day.
400,000 times per day.
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pogotovo kada je pomnožite sa
četiristo tisuća puta po danu.
četiristo tisuća puta po danu.
03:08
And all that extra heat energy
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Sva ta dodatna toplinska energija
03:10
is heating up the atmosphere,
the whole earth system.
the whole earth system.
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zagrijava atmosferu, cijeli sustav Zemlje.
03:13
Let's look at the atmosphere.
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Pogledajmo atmosferu.
03:15
This is a depiction
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Ovo je opis
03:16
of what we used to think of as
the normal distribution of temperatures.
the normal distribution of temperatures.
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onoga što smo nekoć smatrali
normalnom raspodjelom temperatura.
normalnom raspodjelom temperatura.
03:22
The white represents
normal temperature days;
normal temperature days;
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Bijela boja predstavlja
normalne dnevne temperature;
normalne dnevne temperature;
03:25
1951-1980 are arbitrarily chosen.
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razdoblje od 1951. do 1980.
odabrano je proizvoljno.
odabrano je proizvoljno.
03:28
The blue are cooler than average days,
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Plava su ispodprosječno hladni dani,
03:30
the red are warmer than average days.
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crvena iznadprosječno topli dani.
03:32
But the entire curve has moved
to the right in the 1980s.
to the right in the 1980s.
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No cijela se krivulja premjestila
udesno u 1980-ima.
udesno u 1980-ima.
03:36
And you'll see
in the lower right-hand corner
in the lower right-hand corner
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Uočit ćete u donjem desnom kutu
03:38
the appearance of statistically
significant numbers
significant numbers
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pojavu statistički značajnog broja
03:41
of extremely hot days.
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ekstremno vrućih dana.
03:42
In the 90s, the curve shifted further.
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U 90-ima se krivulja pomaknula još dalje.
03:44
And in the last 10 years,
you see the extremely hot days
you see the extremely hot days
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U zadnjih 10 godina, vidite
da su ekstremno vrući dani
da su ekstremno vrući dani
03:48
are now more numerous
than the cooler than average days.
than the cooler than average days.
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brojniji nego ispodprosječno hladni dani.
03:52
In fact, they are 150 times more common
on the surface of the earth
on the surface of the earth
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Oni su zapravo 150 puta
češći na površini Zemlje
češći na površini Zemlje
03:57
than they were just 30 years ago.
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nego što su to bili samo 30 godina unazad.
04:01
So we're having
record-breaking temperatures.
record-breaking temperatures.
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Imamo rekordne temperature.
04:04
Fourteen of the 15 of the hottest years
ever measured with instruments
ever measured with instruments
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Četrnaest od petnaest najtoplijih godina
ikada zabilježenih instrumentima
ikada zabilježenih instrumentima
04:08
have been in this young century.
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pripadaju ovome stoljeću.
04:09
The hottest of all was last year.
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Prošla godina bila je najtoplija od svih.
04:12
Last month was the 371st month in a row
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Zadnji mjesec bio je
371. mjesec koji je razredom
371. mjesec koji je razredom
04:15
warmer than the 20th-century average.
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bio topliji od prosjeka u 20. stoljeću.
04:17
And for the first time,
not only the warmest January,
not only the warmest January,
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Po prvi puta, nismo imali
samo najtopliji siječanj,
samo najtopliji siječanj,
04:21
but for the first time, it was more
than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer
than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer
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već je bilo više od dva
stupnja Fahrenheita toplije
stupnja Fahrenheita toplije
04:26
than the average.
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od prosjeka.
04:28
These higher temperatures
are having an effect on animals,
are having an effect on animals,
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Ove visoke temperature
utječu na životinje,
utječu na životinje,
04:32
plants, people, ecosystems.
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biljke, ljude, ekosustave.
04:35
But on a global basis, 93 percent
of all the extra heat energy
of all the extra heat energy
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No na globalnoj osnovi, 93 posto
ukupne suvišne toplinske energije
ukupne suvišne toplinske energije
04:40
is trapped in the oceans.
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zatočeno je u oceanima.
04:42
And the scientists can measure
the heat buildup
the heat buildup
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Znanstvenici sada mogu
izmjeriti povisivanje topline
izmjeriti povisivanje topline
04:44
much more precisely now
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mnogo preciznije
04:45
at all depths: deep, mid-ocean,
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na svim dubinama: duboko,
na polovici dubine,
na polovici dubine,
04:47
the first few hundred meters.
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u prvih nekoliko stotina metara.
04:49
And this, too, is accelerating.
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Ovo se također ubrzava.
04:52
It goes back more than a century.
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Sve je počelo prije više
od jednog stoljeća.
od jednog stoljeća.
04:54
And more than half of the increase
has been in the last 19 years.
has been in the last 19 years.
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Više od polovice rasta temperature
odvilo se u zadnjih 19 godina.
odvilo se u zadnjih 19 godina.
04:58
This has consequences.
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Ovo dolazi s posljedicama.
04:59
The first order of consequence:
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Prva posljedica:
05:01
the ocean-based storms get stronger.
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oluje koje stvaraju oceani se pojačavaju.
05:03
Super Typhoon Haiyan
went over areas of the Pacific
went over areas of the Pacific
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Super tajfun Haiyan prošao je
pacifičkim područjima
pacifičkim područjima
05:06
five and a half degrees Fahrenheit
warmer than normal
warmer than normal
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topliji za pet i pol stupnjeva Fahrenheita
nego što je to normalno
nego što je to normalno
05:09
before it slammed into Tacloban,
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prije nego je pogodio Tacloban,
05:11
as the most destructive storm
ever to make landfall.
ever to make landfall.
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kao najrazornija oluja koja
je ikad pogodila kopno.
je ikad pogodila kopno.
05:15
Pope Francis, who has made
such a difference to this whole issue,
such a difference to this whole issue,
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Papa Franjo, koji je toliko
govorio o ovome problemu,
govorio o ovome problemu,
05:20
visited Tacloban right after that.
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posjetio je Tacloban odmah nakon oluje.
05:22
Superstorm Sandy went over
areas of the Atlantic
areas of the Atlantic
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Superoluja Sandy prešla je
područja Atlantika
područja Atlantika
05:25
nine degrees warmer than normal
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devet stupnjeva toplija
nego što je to normalno
nego što je to normalno
05:27
before slamming into
New York and New Jersey.
New York and New Jersey.
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prije nego je pogodila
New York i New Jersey.
New York i New Jersey.
05:31
The second order of consequences
are affecting all of us right now.
are affecting all of us right now.
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Druga posljedica trenutno nas sve pogađa.
05:35
The warmer oceans are evaporating
much more water vapor into the skies.
much more water vapor into the skies.
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Topliji oceani isparavaju
mnogo više vodene pare u nebo.
mnogo više vodene pare u nebo.
05:40
Average humidity worldwide
has gone up four percent.
has gone up four percent.
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Prosječna vlaga diljem svijeta
porasla je za četiri posto.
porasla je za četiri posto.
05:44
And it creates these atmospheric rivers.
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Ona stvara atmosferske rijeke.
05:47
The Brazilian scientists
call them "flying rivers."
call them "flying rivers."
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Brazilski znanstvenici
nazivaju ih "leteće rijeke."
nazivaju ih "leteće rijeke."
05:50
And they funnel all of that
extra water vapor over the land
extra water vapor over the land
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One slijevaju svu tu suvišnu
vodenu paru nad kopno
vodenu paru nad kopno
05:55
where storm conditions trigger
these massive record-breaking downpours.
these massive record-breaking downpours.
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gdje uvjeti za oluje uzrokuju
te obilne rekordne kiše.
te obilne rekordne kiše.
06:00
This is from Montana.
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Ovo je iz Montane.
06:03
Take a look at this storm last August.
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Pogledajte ovu oluju iz prošlog kolovoza.
06:05
As it moves over Tucson, Arizona.
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Kako prelazi preko Tucsona u Arizoni.
06:08
It literally splashes off the city.
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Doslovno je izbrisala cijeli grad.
06:11
These downpours are really unusual.
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Ovakve kiše zaista su neuobičajene.
06:15
Last July in Houston, Texas,
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Prošlog srpnja u Hustonu u Texasu,
06:18
it rained for two days,
162 billion gallons.
162 billion gallons.
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kiša je padala dva dana,
613 milijardi litara.
613 milijardi litara.
06:21
That represents more than two days
of the full flow of Niagara Falls
of the full flow of Niagara Falls
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To je više nego što u dva dana
prođe vode na Nijagarinim slapovima
prođe vode na Nijagarinim slapovima
06:25
in the middle of the city,
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u središtu grada,
06:26
which was, of course, paralyzed.
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koji je bio paraliziran.
06:28
These record downpours are creating
historic floods and mudslides.
historic floods and mudslides.
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Ove rekordne kiše stvaraju
povijesne poplave i klizišta.
povijesne poplave i klizišta.
06:32
This one is from Chile last year.
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Ovo je bilo prošle godine u Čile.
06:37
And you'll see that warehouse going by.
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Vidite kako nosi ono skladiše.
06:40
There are oil tankers cars going by.
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Nosi i cisterne s naftom.
06:42
This is from Spain last September,
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Ovo je bilo prošlog rujna u Španjolskoj,
06:44
you could call this the running
of the cars and trucks, I guess.
of the cars and trucks, I guess.
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možete ovo nazvati utrkom auta i kamiona.
06:49
Every night on the TV news now
is like a nature hike
is like a nature hike
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Svake večeri na vijestima čini
nam se da gledamo prizore
nam se da gledamo prizore
06:52
through the Book of Revelation.
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iz Otkrivenja.
06:54
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:56
I mean, really.
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Zaista.
06:59
The insurance industry
has certainly noticed,
has certainly noticed,
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Osiguravajuće tvrke nedavno su uočile,
07:01
the losses have been mounting up.
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porast gubitaka.
07:03
They're not under any illusions
about what's happening.
about what's happening.
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Nemaju nikakve sumnje u to što se događa.
07:07
And the causality requires
a moment of discussion.
a moment of discussion.
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Nesreće zahtijevaju diskusiju.
07:13
We're used to thinking of linear cause
and linear effect --
and linear effect --
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Navikli smo zamišljati linearnu
uzročno-posljedičnu vezu,
uzročno-posljedičnu vezu,
07:16
one cause, one effect.
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jedan uzrok, jedna posljedica.
07:17
This is systemic causation.
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Ovdje se radi o sistemskoj
prouzrokovanosti.
prouzrokovanosti.
07:21
As the great Kevin Trenberth says,
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Kako je veliki Kevin Trenberth rekao,
07:23
"All storms are different now.
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"Sve su oluje sada drukčije.
07:24
There's so much extra energy
in the atmosphere,
in the atmosphere,
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Toliko je dodatne energije u atmosferi,
07:27
there's so much extra water vapor.
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toliko dodatne vodene pare.
07:28
Every storm is different now."
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Svaka oluja je sada drukčija."
07:31
So, the same extra heat pulls
the soil moisture out of the ground
the soil moisture out of the ground
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Višak topline izvlači vlagu iz tla
07:36
and causes these deeper, longer,
more pervasive droughts
more pervasive droughts
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i uzrokuje ove dublje, dulje
i rasprostranjenije suše,
i rasprostranjenije suše,
07:40
and many of them are underway right now.
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i mnoge od njih događaju se upravo sada.
07:42
It dries out the vegetation
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To isušuje vegetaciju
07:44
and causes more fires
in the western part of North America.
in the western part of North America.
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i uzrokuje više požara na
zapadu Sjeverne Amerike.
zapadu Sjeverne Amerike.
07:47
There's certainly been evidence
of that, a lot of them.
of that, a lot of them.
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Nesumnjivo je mnogo dokaza o tome.
07:51
More lightning,
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Više munja,
07:52
as the heat energy builds up,
a considerable amount
a considerable amount
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kako toplinska energija raste,
postoji i značajniji broj
postoji i značajniji broj
07:55
of additional lightning also.
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dodatnih munja.
07:58
These climate-related disasters also have
geopolitical consequences
geopolitical consequences
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Ove klimatske katastrofe imaju
i geopolitičke posljedice
i geopolitičke posljedice
08:05
and create instability.
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i uzrokuju nestabilnost.
08:07
The climate-related historic drought
that started in Syria in 2006
that started in Syria in 2006
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Povijesna suša koju je uzrokovala klima
počela je u Siriji 2006. godine,
počela je u Siriji 2006. godine,
08:12
destroyed 60 percent
of the farms in Syria,
of the farms in Syria,
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uništila je 60 posto farmi u Siriji,
08:15
killed 80 percent of the livestock,
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ubila 80 posto stoke,
08:18
and drove 1.5 million climate refugees
into the cities of Syria,
into the cities of Syria,
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i potjerala 1.5 milijuna klimatskih
izbjeglica u gradove,
izbjeglica u gradove,
08:22
where they collided with another
1.5 million refugees
1.5 million refugees
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gdje su se suočili s drugih
1.5 milijuna izbjeglica
1.5 milijuna izbjeglica
08:25
from the Iraq War.
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iz Iračkog rata.
08:27
And along with other factors,
that opened the gates of Hell
that opened the gates of Hell
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Zajedno s ostalim faktorima,
to je otvorilo vrata pakla
to je otvorilo vrata pakla
08:32
that people are trying to close now.
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koja ljudi sada pokušavaju zatvoriti.
08:35
The US Defense Department has long warned
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Američko ministarstvo obrane
dugo je upozoravalo
dugo je upozoravalo
08:37
of consequences from the climate crisis,
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na posljedice klimatskih kriza,
08:40
including refugees,
food and water shortages
food and water shortages
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uključujući izbjeglice,
nestašicu hrane i vode
nestašicu hrane i vode
08:44
and pandemic disease.
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i pandemijske bolesti.
08:46
Right now we're seeing microbial diseases
from the tropics spread
from the tropics spread
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Upravo sada gledamo kako se bolesti
koje prenose mikrobi iz tropa šire
koje prenose mikrobi iz tropa šire
08:51
to the higher latitudes;
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u više geografske širine;
08:52
the transportation revolution has had
a lot to do with this.
a lot to do with this.
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prijevoz ima veliku ulogu u tome.
08:56
But the changing conditions
change the latitudes in the areas
change the latitudes in the areas
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No uvjeti koji se mijenjaju
uzrokuju širenje područja
uzrokuju širenje područja
09:00
where these microbial diseases
can become endemic
can become endemic
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gdje ove bolesti mogu postati endemske
09:03
and change the range of the vectors,
like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.
like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.
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i promijeniti vektorski opseg, poput
komaraca i krpelja koji ih prenose.
komaraca i krpelja koji ih prenose.
09:08
The Zika epidemic now --
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Trenutna epidemija Zike --
09:12
we're better positioned in North America
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bolje smo pozicionirani
u Sjevernoj Americi
u Sjevernoj Americi
09:14
because it's still a little too cool
and we have a better public health system.
and we have a better public health system.
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jer je ipak hladnije i
imamo bolje javno zdravstvo.
imamo bolje javno zdravstvo.
09:18
But when women in some regions
of South and Central America
of South and Central America
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No kada se preporuča nekim
ženama u Južnoj i Srednjoj Americi
ženama u Južnoj i Srednjoj Americi
09:23
are advised not to get pregnant
for two years --
for two years --
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da ne zatrudne u periodu od dvije godine,
09:25
that's something new,
that ought to get our attention.
that ought to get our attention.
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to je nešto novo i treba
privući našu pozornost.
privući našu pozornost.
09:29
The Lancet, one of the two greatest
medical journals in the world,
medical journals in the world,
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Lancet, jedan od dva najbolja
medicinska časopisa na svijetu,
medicinska časopisa na svijetu,
09:33
last summer labeled this
a medical emergency now.
a medical emergency now.
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prošlog ljeta nazvao je ovo sadašnjim
medicinskim izvanrednim stanjem.
medicinskim izvanrednim stanjem.
09:37
And there are many factors because of it.
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Mnogo je čimbenika zbog toga.
09:40
This is also connected
to the extinction crisis.
to the extinction crisis.
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Ovo je također povezano
s krizom izumiranja.
s krizom izumiranja.
09:42
We're in danger of losing 50 percent
of all the living species on earth
of all the living species on earth
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Prijeti nam gubitak 50 posto
svih živih bića na Zemlji
svih živih bića na Zemlji
09:46
by the end of this century.
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do kraja ovog stoljeća.
09:47
And already, land-based plants and animals
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Već sada se kopnene biljke i životinje
09:50
are now moving towards the poles
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primiču polovima
09:52
at an average rate of 15 feet per day.
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u prosjeku 15 stopa dnevno.
09:56
Speaking of the North Pole,
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Što se tiče Sjevernog pola,
09:57
last December 29, the same storm
that caused historic flooding
that caused historic flooding
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prošlog prosinca, ista oluja koja
je uzrokovala povijesne poplave
je uzrokovala povijesne poplave
10:03
in the American Midwest,
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na američkom Srednjem zapadu,
10:04
raised temperatures at the North Pole
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povisila je temperaturu na Sjevernom polu
10:07
50 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal,
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za 50 stupnjeva Fahrenheit
toplije nego normalno,
toplije nego normalno,
10:09
causing the thawing of the North Pole
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uzrokujući otapanje Sjevernog pola
10:12
in the middle of the long,
dark, winter, polar night.
dark, winter, polar night.
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usred duge, mračne, zimske, polarne noći.
10:16
And when the land-based ice
of the Arctic melts,
of the Arctic melts,
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Kada se arktički led otopi,
10:20
it raises sea level.
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povisuje razinu mora.
10:22
Paul Nicklen's beautiful photograph
from Svalbard illustrates this.
from Svalbard illustrates this.
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To pokazuje fotografija Paula Nicklena
iz Svalbarda.
iz Svalbarda.
10:26
It's more dangerous coming off Greenland
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Najopasnije je otapanje Grenlanda,
10:28
and particularly, Antarctica.
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a posebno Antarktike.
10:30
The 10 largest risk cities
for sea-level rise by population
for sea-level rise by population
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Deset najvećih gradova koje ugrožava
podizanje mora uglavnom su
podizanje mora uglavnom su
u Južnoj i Jugoistočnoj Aziji.
10:35
are mostly in South and Southeast Asia.
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Kada se mjeri ugroženost imovine,
broj jedan je Miami:
broj jedan je Miami:
10:37
When you measure it by assets at risk,
number one is Miami:
number one is Miami:
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10:42
three and a half trillion dollars at risk.
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tri i pol trilijuna dolara je ugroženo.
Broj tri su New York i Newark.
10:44
Number three: New York and Newark.
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10:46
I was in Miami last fall
during the supermoon,
during the supermoon,
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Bio sam u Miamiju prošle jeseni
tijekom pojave super mjeseca,
tijekom pojave super mjeseca,
10:49
one of the highest high-tide days.
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jednog od najjačih dana visoke plime.
10:52
And there were fish from the ocean
swimming in some of the streets
swimming in some of the streets
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Oceanske ribe plivale su ulicama
Miami Beacha i Fort Lauderdalea
10:56
of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale
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i Del Reya.
10:58
and Del Rey.
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To se sada redovito događa
tijekom visokih plima.
tijekom visokih plima.
10:59
And this happens regularly
during the highest-tide tides now.
during the highest-tide tides now.
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11:02
Not with rain -- they call it
"sunny-day flooding."
"sunny-day flooding."
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Ne zbog kiše već "poplava
sunčanog dana."
sunčanog dana."
Dolazi iz odvodnih kanala za oluje.
11:05
It comes up through the storm sewers.
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11:09
And the Mayor of Miami
speaks for many when he says
speaks for many when he says
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Gradonačelnik Miamija govori
u ime mnogih kada kaže
u ime mnogih kada kaže
11:14
it is long past time this can be viewed
through a partisan lens.
through a partisan lens.
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da je prošlo vrijeme kada se ovo
moglo promatrati kroz stranačke leće.
moglo promatrati kroz stranačke leće.
Ovo je kriza koja svakim
danom postaje sve gora.
danom postaje sve gora.
11:18
This is a crisis
that's getting worse day by day.
that's getting worse day by day.
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11:21
We have to move beyond partisanship.
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Moramo se udaljiti od
stranačkih preferencija.
stranačkih preferencija.
11:23
And I want to take a moment
to honor these House Republicans --
to honor these House Republicans --
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Htio bih iskazati poštovanje
prema ovim republikancima
prema ovim republikancima
(Pljesak)
11:27
(Applause)
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11:28
who had the courage last fall
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koji su prošle jeseni imali hrabrosti
iskoračiti i napraviti politički rizik,
11:30
to step out and take a political risk,
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govoreći istinu o klimatskoj krizi.
11:35
by telling the truth
about the climate crisis.
about the climate crisis.
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11:38
So the cost of the climate
crisis is mounting up,
crisis is mounting up,
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Cijena klimatske krize raste,
mnogo je aspekata koje
uopće nisam ni spomenuo.
uopće nisam ni spomenuo.
11:41
there are many of these aspects
I haven't even mentioned.
I haven't even mentioned.
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11:45
It's an enormous burden.
224
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1973
To je golemi teret.
Spomenut ću još samo jedan,
11:47
I'll mention just one more,
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11:48
because the World Economic Forum
last month in Davos,
last month in Davos,
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s obzirom da je Svjetski ekonomski forum
prošli mjesec u Davosu,
prošli mjesec u Davosu,
11:53
after their annual survey
of 750 economists,
of 750 economists,
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nakon njihovog godišnjeg pregleda
koji je vodilo 750 ekonomista,
koji je vodilo 750 ekonomista,
11:56
said the climate crisis is now
the number one risk
the number one risk
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izjavio da je klimatska kriza
sada primarni rizik
sada primarni rizik
11:59
to the global economy.
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globalnoj ekonomiji.
12:01
So you get central bankers
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Imate središnje bankare
12:02
like Mark Carney, the head
of the UK Central Bank,
of the UK Central Bank,
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poput Marka Carneyja, guvernera
britanske Središnje banke,
britanske Središnje banke,
12:05
saying the vast majority
of the carbon reserves are unburnable.
of the carbon reserves are unburnable.
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koji tvrdi da većina
zaliha ugljika nesagoriva.
zaliha ugljika nesagoriva.
Nelikvidan ugljik.
12:09
Subprime carbon.
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12:11
I'm not going to remind you what happened
with subprime mortgages,
with subprime mortgages,
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Neću vas podsjećati što se dogodilo
s nelikvidnim hipotekama,
s nelikvidnim hipotekama,
12:14
but it's the same thing.
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no situacija je ista.
Ako pogledate sva ugljična goriva
koja su sagorena
koja su sagorena
12:16
If you look at all of the carbon fuels
that were burned
that were burned
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12:18
since the beginning
of the industrial revolution,
of the industrial revolution,
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od početka industrijske revolucije
12:21
this is the quantity burned
in the last 16 years.
in the last 16 years.
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ovo je količina spaljena
u zadnjih 16 godina.
u zadnjih 16 godina.
12:25
Here are all the ones that are proven
and left on the books,
and left on the books,
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Evo svih koji su dokazani
i ostavljeni na knjigama,
i ostavljeni na knjigama,
12:28
28 trillion dollars.
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28 trilijuna dolara.
12:30
The International Energy Agency
says only this amount can be burned.
says only this amount can be burned.
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Međunarodna energetska agencija tvrdi
da se samo ova količina može sagoriti.
da se samo ova količina može sagoriti.
12:34
So the rest, 22 trillion dollars --
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Ostatak, 22 trilijuna dolara -
12:37
unburnable.
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nesagorivo.
12:39
Risk to the global economy.
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Rizik globalnoj ekonomiji.
12:41
That's why divestment movement
makes practical sense
makes practical sense
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Zato pokret lišavanja sredstava
ima praktičnog smisla
ima praktičnog smisla
12:44
and is not just a moral imperative.
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i nije samo moralni imperativ.
12:47
So the answer to the first question,
"Must we change?"
"Must we change?"
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Odgovor na prvo pitanje,
"Moramo li se promijeniti?"
"Moramo li se promijeniti?"
12:51
is yes, we have to change.
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je potvrdan - moramo se promijeniti.
12:53
Second question, "Can we change?"
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Drugo pitanje, "Možemo li se promijeniti?"
12:55
This is the exciting news!
250
763143
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Ovdje dolazi uzbudljiva vijest!
12:57
The best projections
in the world 16 years ago
in the world 16 years ago
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Najbolja predviđanja na
svijetu prije 16 godina
svijetu prije 16 godina
13:01
were that by 2010, the world
would be able to install
would be able to install
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bila su da će do 2010.
svijet moći postaviti
svijet moći postaviti
30 gigavata vjetroelektrana.
13:05
30 gigawatts of wind capacity.
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Prešli smo tu brojku 14 i pol puta.
13:07
We beat that mark
by 14 and a half times over.
by 14 and a half times over.
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13:12
We see an exponential curve
for wind installations now.
for wind installations now.
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Sada vidimo eksponencijalnu krivulju
za postavljenje vjetroelektrana.
za postavljenje vjetroelektrana.
13:16
We see the cost coming down dramatically.
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Vidimo da trošak dramatično pada.
13:19
Some countries -- take Germany,
an industrial powerhouse
an industrial powerhouse
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Neke zemlje, npr. Njemačka,
koja je industrijska sila
koja je industrijska sila
s klimom ne tako
drukčijom od vancouverske,
drukčijom od vancouverske,
13:22
with a climate not that different
from Vancouver's, by the way --
from Vancouver's, by the way --
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u jednom danu prošlog prosinca,
13:26
one day last December,
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13:28
got 81 percent of all its energy
from renewable resources,
from renewable resources,
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81 posto svoje ukupne energije
primila je iz obnovljivih izvora,
primila je iz obnovljivih izvora,
većinom solarnih i vjetroelektrana.
13:31
mainly solar and wind.
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Mnoge zemlje redovito tako dobivaju
više od polovice energije.
više od polovice energije.
13:33
A lot of countries are getting
more than half on an average basis.
more than half on an average basis.
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13:36
More good news:
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1158
Još dobrih vijesti:
13:37
energy storage,
from batteries particularly,
from batteries particularly,
264
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3023
pohrana energije, posebno u baterijama,
13:40
is now beginning to take off
265
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dobiva svoj uzlet
13:42
because the cost has been
coming down very dramatically
coming down very dramatically
266
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3793
jer potrošnja dramatično pada
13:46
to solve the intermittency problem.
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kako bi se riješio problem
intermitentnih izvora energije.
intermitentnih izvora energije.
13:47
With solar, the news is even
more exciting!
more exciting!
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Što se tiče solarnih izvora,
vijesti postaju uzbudljivije!
vijesti postaju uzbudljivije!
Prema najboljim predviđanjima unazad
14 godina trebali smo postaviti
14 godina trebali smo postaviti
13:50
The best projections 14 years ago
were that we would install
were that we would install
269
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3349
13:53
one gigawatt per year by 2010.
270
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2547
jedan gigavat godišnje do 2010. godine.
13:56
When 2010 came around,
we beat that mark by 17 times over.
we beat that mark by 17 times over.
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Kada je stigla 2010. godina,
prešli smo tu brojku 17 i pol puta.
prešli smo tu brojku 17 i pol puta.
14:01
Last year, we beat it by 58 times over.
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Prošle godine, prešli smo je 58 puta.
14:04
This year, we're on track
to beat it 68 times over.
to beat it 68 times over.
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Ove godine, na putu smo
da je prijeđemo 68 puta.
da je prijeđemo 68 puta.
Pobijedit ćemo ovo.
14:07
We're going to win this.
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Prevladat ćemo.
14:09
We are going to prevail.
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14:10
The exponential curve on solar
is even steeper and more dramatic.
is even steeper and more dramatic.
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4083
Eksponencijalna krivulja za solarne izvore
još je strmija i dramatičnija.
još je strmija i dramatičnija.
14:14
When I came to this stage 10 years ago,
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842990
1929
Kada sam kročio na
ovu pozornicu prije 10 godina,
ovu pozornicu prije 10 godina,
14:16
this is where it was.
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844943
1395
nalazila se ovdje.
14:18
We have seen a revolutionary breakthrough
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3554
Vidjeli smo revolucionarni napredak
ovih eksponencijalnih krivulja.
14:22
in the emergence
of these exponential curves.
of these exponential curves.
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3189
14:25
(Applause)
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3224
(Pljesak)
14:28
And the cost has come down
10 percent per year
10 percent per year
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856933
3497
Trošak se smanjio 10 posto godišnje
za 30 godina.
14:32
for 30 years.
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860454
1299
14:33
And it's continuing to come down.
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2298
I nastavlja se smanjivati.
14:36
Now, the business community
has certainly noticed this,
has certainly noticed this,
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2646
Poslovna zajednica je ovo svakako uočila,
jer prelazi točku pariteta mreže.
14:38
because it's crossing
the grid parity point.
the grid parity point.
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866769
2809
Počinju se javljati
jeftinije solarne stope.
jeftinije solarne stope.
14:41
Cheaper solar penetration rates
are beginning to rise.
are beginning to rise.
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869602
3252
Paritet mreža shvaćamo
kao liniju ili prag,
kao liniju ili prag,
14:44
Grid parity is understood
as that line, that threshold,
as that line, that threshold,
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872878
3516
ispog kojeg je obnovljiva struja
jeftinija od struje
jeftinija od struje
14:48
below which renewable electricity
is cheaper than electricity
is cheaper than electricity
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876418
3874
14:52
from burning fossil fuels.
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880316
2218
iz fosilnih goriva.
Taj prag pomalo nalikuje razlici
14:54
That threshold is a little bit
like the difference
like the difference
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882558
2693
14:57
between 32 degrees Fahrenheit
and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,
and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,
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885275
4110
između 32 stupnja Fahrenheita
i 33 stupnja Fahrenheita,
i 33 stupnja Fahrenheita,
15:01
or zero and one Celsius.
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889409
1586
ili nule i jednog Celzijusa.
15:03
It's a difference of more than one degree,
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891019
2024
Ta je razlika veća od jednog stupnja,
15:05
it's the difference between ice and water.
295
893067
2701
to je razlika između leda i vode.
15:07
And it's the difference between markets
that are frozen up,
that are frozen up,
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895792
3944
Razlika između tržišta koja su zamrznuta,
15:11
and liquid flows of capital
into new opportunities for investment.
into new opportunities for investment.
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899760
4532
i likvidnih protoka kapitala
u nove prilike za ulaganja.
u nove prilike za ulaganja.
Ovo je najveća nova poslovna prilika
15:16
This is the biggest
new business opportunity
new business opportunity
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904316
3605
15:19
in the history of the world,
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907945
1532
u povijesti svijeta,
15:21
and two-thirds of it
is in the private sector.
is in the private sector.
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909501
3148
a njene dvije trećine
su u privatnom sektoru.
su u privatnom sektoru.
Uočavamo eksploziju novih ulaganja.
15:24
We are seeing an explosion
of new investment.
of new investment.
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912673
3436
15:28
Starting in 2010, investments globally
in renewable electricity generation
in renewable electricity generation
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916133
5568
Počevši u 2010., globalna ulaganja
u obnovljive izvore struje
u obnovljive izvore struje
nadmašila su fosilna goriva.
15:33
surpassed fossils.
303
921725
1533
15:35
The gap has been growing ever since.
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923282
2416
Taj razmak otada neprekidno raste.
15:37
The projections for the future
are even more dramatic,
are even more dramatic,
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925722
2948
Predviđanja za budućnost
još su dramatičnija,
još su dramatičnija,
15:40
even though fossil energy
is now still subsidized
is now still subsidized
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928694
3599
iako se fosilna energija
još uvijek subvencionira
još uvijek subvencionira
15:44
at a rate 40 times larger than renewables.
307
932317
3227
u 40 puta većem omjeru
nego obnovljivi izvori.
nego obnovljivi izvori.
15:47
And by the way, if you add
the projections for nuclear on here,
the projections for nuclear on here,
308
935568
4090
Ako ovome dodamo predviđanja
za nuklearnu energiju,
za nuklearnu energiju,
15:51
particularly if you assume
that the work many are doing
that the work many are doing
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939682
2621
posebno ako pretpostavite
da posao koji mnogi rade
da posao koji mnogi rade
kako bi došli do
sigurnijih i prihvatljivijih,
sigurnijih i prihvatljivijih,
15:54
to try to break through to safer
and more acceptable,
and more acceptable,
310
942327
2714
15:57
more affordable forms of nuclear,
311
945065
1839
pristupačnijih oblika nuklearne energije,
ovo bi se moglo još
dramatičnije promijeniti.
dramatičnije promijeniti.
15:58
this could change even more dramatically.
312
946928
2443
16:01
So is there any precedent
for such a rapid adoption
for such a rapid adoption
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949934
2956
Postoji li kakav presedan
za takvo brzo usvajanje
za takvo brzo usvajanje
16:04
of a new technology?
314
952914
1729
nove tehnologije?
Postoji mnogo, no pogledajmo mobitele.
16:06
Well, there are many,
but let's look at cell phones.
but let's look at cell phones.
315
954667
2460
16:09
In 1980, AT&T, then Ma Bell,
316
957151
3373
Godine 1980. AT&T, potom Ma Bell,
platili su McKinseyju da provede
istraživanje golobanog tržišta
istraživanje golobanog tržišta
16:12
commissioned McKinsey to do
a global market survey
a global market survey
317
960548
2393
onih nezgrapnih novih mobitela
koji su se tada pojavili.
koji su se tada pojavili.
16:14
of those clunky new mobile phones
that appeared then.
that appeared then.
318
962965
3616
16:18
"How many can we sell
by the year 2000?" they asked.
by the year 2000?" they asked.
319
966605
3163
"Koliko možemo prodati
do 2000. godine?", pitali su.
do 2000. godine?", pitali su.
16:21
McKinsey came back and said, "900,000."
320
969792
2568
McKinsey im je odgovorio "900.000."
16:24
And sure enough,
when the year 2000 arrived,
when the year 2000 arrived,
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972384
2072
I zaista, do 2000. godine,
16:26
they did sell 900,000 --
in the first three days.
in the first three days.
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974480
2578
zaista su prodali 900.000 -
u prvih tri dana.
u prvih tri dana.
16:29
And for the balance of the year,
they sold 120 times more.
they sold 120 times more.
323
977082
3912
Do kraja godine prodali su 120 puta više.
Sada ima više mobitela
nego ljudi na svijetu.
nego ljudi na svijetu.
16:33
And now there are more cell connections
than there are people in the world.
than there are people in the world.
324
981018
4376
16:37
So, why were they not only wrong,
but way wrong?
but way wrong?
325
985418
4469
Kako to da su toliko
pogriješili u procjeni?
pogriješili u procjeni?
16:41
I've asked that question myself, "Why?"
326
989911
2400
Pitao sam samog sebe, "Zašto?"
16:44
(Laughter)
327
992335
1003
(Smijeh)
16:45
And I think the answer is in three parts.
328
993362
2233
Mislim da se odgovor
sastoji od tri dijela.
sastoji od tri dijela.
16:48
First, the cost came down much faster
than anybody expected,
than anybody expected,
329
996122
3389
Prvo, cijena je pala puno brže
nego je to itko očekivao,
nego je to itko očekivao,
16:51
even as the quality went up.
330
999535
2507
čak i kada je kvaliteta porasla.
16:54
And low-income countries, places
that did not have a landline grid --
that did not have a landline grid --
331
1002066
4272
Siromašne zemlje, u kojima
ne postoji fiksna linija,
ne postoji fiksna linija,
usvojile su novu tehnologiju.
16:58
they leap-frogged to the new technology.
332
1006362
2228
17:00
The big expansion has been
in the developing counties.
in the developing counties.
333
1008614
3064
Odvila se velika ekspanzija
u zemljama u razvoju.
u zemljama u razvoju.
17:03
So what about the electricity grids
in the developing world?
in the developing world?
334
1011702
3748
Što je onda s električnim mrežama
u tim zemljama?
u tim zemljama?
Nema ih baš puno.
17:07
Well, not so hot.
335
1015474
1730
U mnogim područjima ni ne postoje.
17:09
And in many areas, they don't exist.
336
1017228
2298
17:11
There are more people
without any electricity at all in India
without any electricity at all in India
337
1019550
3146
U Indiji ima više je ljudi
bez električne struje
bez električne struje
17:14
than the entire population
of the United States of America.
of the United States of America.
338
1022720
3122
nego što je ukupna populacija SAD-a.
17:17
So now we're getting this:
339
1025866
1504
Tako imamo ovo:
17:19
solar panels on grass huts
340
1027394
1838
solarne ploče na slamnatim kolibama
17:21
and new business models
that make it affordable.
that make it affordable.
341
1029256
2938
i novi poslovni modeli
koji ih čine prihvatljivima.
koji ih čine prihvatljivima.
17:24
Muhammad Yunus financed
this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.
this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.
342
1032218
4885
Ovu u Bangladešu financirao je
Muhammad Yunus pomoću mikrokredita.
Muhammad Yunus pomoću mikrokredita.
17:29
This is a village market.
343
1037127
1708
Ovo je seoska tržnica.
17:30
Bangladesh is now the fastest-deploying
country in the world:
country in the world:
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1038859
2890
Bangladeš je trenutno zemlja s
najbržom implementacijom na svijetu:
najbržom implementacijom na svijetu:
17:33
two systems per minute
on average, night and day.
on average, night and day.
345
1041773
2412
u prosjeku dva sustava
u minuti, danju i noću.
u minuti, danju i noću.
Imamo sve što trebamo:
17:36
And we have all we need:
346
1044209
1189
17:37
enough energy from the Sun
comes to the Earth
comes to the Earth
347
1045422
2292
dovoljno sunčeve energije dolazi do Zemlje
svakog sata da opskrbi energetske
potrebe čitavog svijeta za cijelu godinu.
potrebe čitavog svijeta za cijelu godinu.
17:39
every hour to supply the full world's
energy needs for an entire year.
energy needs for an entire year.
348
1047738
5363
17:45
It's actually a little bit
less than an hour.
less than an hour.
349
1053125
2173
Zapravo treba malo manje od jednog sata.
17:47
So the answer to the second question,
"Can we change?"
"Can we change?"
350
1055322
3332
Odgovor na drugo pitanje,
"Možemo li se promijeniti?"
"Možemo li se promijeniti?"
17:50
is clearly "Yes."
351
1058678
1923
očigledno je "Da."
17:52
And it's an ever-firmer "yes."
352
1060625
2772
I to "da" se sve više utvrđuje.
17:55
Last question, "Will we change?"
353
1063421
2608
Posljednje pitanje je
"Hoćemo li se promijeniti?"
"Hoćemo li se promijeniti?"
17:58
Paris really was a breakthrough,
354
1066053
1992
Pariz je zaista donio promjene,
18:00
some of the provisions are binding
355
1068069
1663
neke mjere su obvezujuće,
18:01
and the regular reviews will matter a lot.
356
1069756
2038
a redovne provjere bit će jako bitne.
18:03
But nations aren't waiting,
they're going ahead.
they're going ahead.
357
1071818
2251
No nacije ne čekaju već idu naprijed.
Kina je već najavila da će od iduće godine
18:06
China has already announced
that starting next year,
that starting next year,
358
1074093
2515
usvojiti sustav trgovanja
emisijskim jedinicama plinova.
emisijskim jedinicama plinova.
18:08
they're adopting a nationwide
cap and trade system.
cap and trade system.
359
1076632
2983
18:11
They will likely link up
with the European Union.
with the European Union.
360
1079639
3143
Vjerojatno će se povezati
s Europskom unijom.
s Europskom unijom.
SAD se već mijenja.
18:14
The United States
has already been changing.
has already been changing.
361
1082806
2492
18:17
All of these coal plants were proposed
362
1085322
2050
Sva ova uglična postrojenja
bila su predložena
bila su predložena
18:19
in the next 10 years and canceled.
363
1087396
2530
za sljedećih 10 godina i ukinuta.
18:21
All of these existing
coal plants were retired.
coal plants were retired.
364
1089950
2919
Sva ova postrojenja su zatvorena.
Sva su ova postrojenja
najavila svoje zatvaranje.
najavila svoje zatvaranje.
18:24
All of these coal plants have had
their retirement announced.
their retirement announced.
365
1092893
3017
18:27
All of them -- canceled.
366
1095934
2328
I sva su ukinuta.
18:30
We are moving forward.
367
1098286
1490
Idemo prema naprijed.
Prošle godine, ako gledate sva ulaganja
18:31
Last year -- if you look at
all of the investment
all of the investment
368
1099800
2468
18:34
in new electricity generation
in the United States,
in the United States,
369
1102292
2943
u novu proizvodnju struje u SAD-u,
skoro tri četvrtine je došlo
iz obnovljivih izvora,
iz obnovljivih izvora,
18:37
almost three-quarters
was from renewable energy,
was from renewable energy,
370
1105259
2666
18:39
mostly wind and solar.
371
1107949
2512
najviše vjetra i solarnih ploča.
18:42
We are solving this crisis.
372
1110485
3147
Rješavamo krizu.
Pitanje je samo koliko dugo
će nam trebati da uspijemo?
će nam trebati da uspijemo?
18:45
The only question is:
how long will it take to get there?
how long will it take to get there?
373
1113656
4899
18:50
So, it matters that a lot
of people are organizing
of people are organizing
374
1118579
4617
Bitno je da se mnogo ljudi organizira
18:55
to insist on this change.
375
1123220
2138
da vrše pritisak za ovu promjenu.
18:57
Almost 400,000 people
marched in New York City
marched in New York City
376
1125382
3784
Gotovo 400.000 ljudi
marširalo je u New Yorku
marširalo je u New Yorku
19:01
before the UN special session on this.
377
1129190
2847
prije posebne sjednice UN-a
o ovom problemu.
o ovom problemu.
19:04
Many thousands, tens of thousands,
378
1132061
2004
Deseci tisuća,
19:06
marched in cities around the world.
379
1134089
2873
marširalo je u gradovima diljem svijeta.
Zato sam iznimno optimističan.
19:08
And so, I am extremely optimistic.
380
1136986
4143
19:13
As I said before,
we are going to win this.
we are going to win this.
381
1141153
2555
Kao što sam već spomenuo, pobjedit ćemo.
Završit ću ovom pričom.
19:15
I'll finish with this story.
382
1143732
1967
19:18
When I was 13 years old,
383
1146218
2592
Kada mi je bilo 13 godina,
19:20
I heard that proposal by President Kennedy
384
1148834
3431
čuo sam onaj prijedlog
predsjednika Kennedyja
predsjednika Kennedyja
da se pošalje čovjeka na Mjesec
i vrati ga se sigurno nazad
i vrati ga se sigurno nazad
19:24
to land a person on the Moon
and bring him back safely
and bring him back safely
385
1152289
2551
u deset godina.
19:26
in 10 years.
386
1154864
1165
Čuo sam i kako su odrasli tada govorili,
19:28
And I heard adults
of that day and time say,
of that day and time say,
387
1156053
2984
"To je nepromišljeno, skupo,
može doživjeti neuspjeh."
može doživjeti neuspjeh."
19:31
"That's reckless, expensive,
may well fail."
may well fail."
388
1159061
3517
19:34
But eight years and two months later,
389
1162602
2177
No osam godina i dva mjeseca poslije,
19:36
in the moment that Neil Armstrong
set foot on the Moon,
set foot on the Moon,
390
1164803
3262
u trenutku kada je Neil Armstrong
zakoračio na Mjesec,
zakoračio na Mjesec,
19:40
there was great cheer that went up
in NASA's mission control in Houston.
in NASA's mission control in Houston.
391
1168089
4590
čulo se glasno klicanje u NASA-inoj
kontrolnoj sobi za misije u Houstonu.
kontrolnoj sobi za misije u Houstonu.
Evo slabo znane činjenive o tome:
19:44
Here's a little-known fact about that:
392
1172703
2460
19:47
the average age of the systems engineers,
393
1175187
2205
prosječna dob inženjera sustava,
19:49
the controllers in the room
that day, was 26,
that day, was 26,
394
1177416
3176
kontrolora u toj sobi tog dana,
bila je 26 godina,
bila je 26 godina,
19:52
which means, among other things,
395
1180616
1559
što, između ostalog, znači da
19:54
their age, when they heard
that challenge, was 18.
that challenge, was 18.
396
1182199
3250
im je bilo 18 kada su
čuli za taj izazov.
čuli za taj izazov.
Sada imamo moralni izazov
19:57
We now have a moral challenge
397
1185473
3202
koji pripada tradiciji izazova
s kojima smo se već suočili.
s kojima smo se već suočili.
20:00
that is in the tradition of others
that we have faced.
that we have faced.
398
1188699
3530
Jedan od najvećih američkih
pjesnika 20. stoljeća,
pjesnika 20. stoljeća,
20:04
One of the greatest poets
of the last century in the US,
of the last century in the US,
399
1192253
3654
20:07
Wallace Stevens,
400
1195931
1349
Wallace Stevens,
20:09
wrote a line that has stayed with me:
401
1197304
1818
napisao je stih koji sam zapamtio:
20:11
"After the final 'no,'
there comes a 'yes,'
there comes a 'yes,'
402
1199146
2483
"Nakon zadnjeg 'ne',
dolazi 'da',
dolazi 'da',
20:13
and on that 'yes',
the future world depends."
the future world depends."
403
1201653
2981
i o tome 'da' ovisi svijet budućnosti."
Kada su abolicionisti započeli svoj pokret
20:16
When the abolitionists
started their movement,
started their movement,
404
1204658
2285
suočavali su se s opetovanim odbijanjima.
20:18
they met with no after no after no.
405
1206967
2207
20:21
And then came a yes.
406
1209198
1276
A tada su naišli na "da".
20:22
The Women's Suffrage
and Women's Rights Movement
and Women's Rights Movement
407
1210498
2389
Pokret za ženska prava kao i
Pokret za pravo da glasuju
Pokret za pravo da glasuju
20:24
met endless no's, until finally,
there was a yes.
there was a yes.
408
1212911
3595
suočavali su se s odbijanjima opet i opet,
dok naposljetku nisu dobili "da."
dok naposljetku nisu dobili "da."
Pokret za građanska prava,
pokret protiv apartheida,
pokret protiv apartheida,
20:28
The Civil Rights Movement,
the movement against apartheid,
the movement against apartheid,
409
1216530
2771
20:31
and more recently, the movement
for gay and lesbian rights
for gay and lesbian rights
410
1219325
3591
i nešto aktualniji pokret za
prava homoseksualaca
prava homoseksualaca
ovdje u SAD-u i u drugim zemljama.
20:34
here in the United States and elsewhere.
411
1222940
2405
20:37
After the final "no" comes a "yes."
412
1225369
2176
Nakon posljednjeg "ne" dolazi "da".
20:39
When any great moral challenge
is ultimately resolved
is ultimately resolved
413
1227569
5133
Kada se bilo koji veliki moralni
izazov napokon svede
izazov napokon svede
20:44
into a binary choice
between what is right and what is wrong,
between what is right and what is wrong,
414
1232726
3855
na binarni odabir između onoga
što je pravo i što krivo,
što je pravo i što krivo,
20:48
the outcome is fore-ordained
because of who we are as human beings.
because of who we are as human beings.
415
1236605
4129
rezultat je predodređen zbog
naših ljudskih kvaliteta.
naših ljudskih kvaliteta.
20:52
Ninety-nine percent of us,
that is where we are now
that is where we are now
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Devedeset i devet posto svih nas,
dotle smo stigli
dotle smo stigli
20:56
and it is why we're going to win this.
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i zato ćemo ovo pobijediti.
20:59
We have everything we need.
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Imamo sve što nam treba.
Neki još sumnjaju da
imamo volju za djelovanje,
imamo volju za djelovanje,
21:01
Some still doubt that we have
the will to act,
the will to act,
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ja tvrdim da je volja za djelovanje
sama po sebi obnovljivi izvor.
sama po sebi obnovljivi izvor.
21:04
but I say the will to act is itself
a renewable resource.
a renewable resource.
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Hvala vam.
21:09
Thank you very much.
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(Pljesak)
21:10
(Applause)
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21:47
Chris Anderson: You've got this incredible
combination of skills.
combination of skills.
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Chris Anderson: Imate
nevjerojatan splet vještina.
nevjerojatan splet vještina.
21:50
You've got this scientist mind
that can understand
that can understand
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Imate um znanstvenika koju može razumijeti
21:53
the full range of issues,
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cijeli opseg problema,
21:55
and the ability to turn it
into the most vivid language.
into the most vivid language.
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i sposobnost da to pretočite
u vrlo živopisan jezik.
u vrlo živopisan jezik.
21:59
No one else can do that,
that's why you led this thing.
that's why you led this thing.
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1307512
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Nitko dugi to ne može, zato ovo vodite.
22:02
It was amazing to see it 10 years ago,
it was amazing to see it now.
it was amazing to see it now.
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1310419
3411
Bilo je nevjerojatno vidjeti to
prije 10 godina, kao i sada.
prije 10 godina, kao i sada.
22:05
Al Gore: Well, you're nice
to say that, Chris.
to say that, Chris.
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1313854
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Al Gore: Lijepo od tebe
da to kažeš, Chris.
da to kažeš, Chris.
Iskreno, imam mnogo jako dobrih prijatelja
22:08
But honestly, I have a lot
of really good friends
of really good friends
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1316053
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u znanstvenoj zajednici koji su
nevjerojatno strpljivi
nevjerojatno strpljivi
22:11
in the scientific community
who are incredibly patient
who are incredibly patient
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3719
i koji mi objašnjavanju ovaj problem
22:14
and who will sit there
and explain this stuff to me
and explain this stuff to me
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1322981
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22:17
over and over and over again
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opetovano
22:19
until I can get it
into simple enough language
into simple enough language
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1327134
3596
sve dok ga ja ne mogu pretočiti
u jednostavan jezik
u jednostavan jezik
22:22
that I can understand it.
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1330754
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koji mogu razumijem.
22:23
And that's the key to trying
to communicate.
to communicate.
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1331990
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To je ključ komunikacije.
22:27
CA: So, your talk. First part: terrifying,
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CA: Prvi dio govora je zastrašujuć,
22:31
second part: incredibly hopeful.
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1339206
1937
drugi dio je pun nade.
Kako možemo znati da su
svi ti grafovi i razvoj dovoljni
svi ti grafovi i razvoj dovoljni
22:33
How do we know that all those graphs,
all that progress, is enough
all that progress, is enough
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1341810
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da se riješi ono što ste nam
pokazali u prvome dijelu?
pokazali u prvome dijelu?
22:39
to solve what you showed
in the first part?
in the first part?
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2728
AG: Mislim da je je prijelaz --
22:41
AG: I think that the crossing --
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1349887
3528
22:45
you know, I've only been
in the business world for 15 years.
in the business world for 15 years.
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1353439
3013
znate, u poslovnom sam
svijetu tek 15 godina.
svijetu tek 15 godina.
22:48
But one of the things I've learned
is that apparently it matters
is that apparently it matters
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No jedna od stvari koje sam
naučio jest da je zaista bitno
naučio jest da je zaista bitno
22:51
if a new product or service
is more expensive
is more expensive
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1359778
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ako je novi proizvod ili usluga skuplja
22:54
than the incumbent, or cheaper than.
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1362966
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ili jeftinija od onoga
što je već na tržištu.
što je već na tržištu.
22:57
Turns out, it makes a difference
if it's cheaper than.
if it's cheaper than.
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1365144
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Ispostavilo se da je bitno
ako je jeftinije.
ako je jeftinije.
(Smijeh)
22:59
(Laughter)
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1367723
1095
Kad prijeđe tu granicu,
23:00
And when it crosses that line,
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2694
mnogo se stvari tada mijenja.
23:03
then a lot of things really change.
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1371560
1896
Redovito nas iznenađuju takve promjene.
23:05
We are regularly surprised
by these developments.
by these developments.
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2945
23:08
The late Rudi Dornbusch,
the great economist said,
the great economist said,
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2547
Pokojni Rudi Dornbusch,
veliki ekonomist, rekao je
veliki ekonomist, rekao je
23:11
"Things take longer to happen
then you think they will,
then you think they will,
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1379020
2796
"Stvarima treba više vremena
da se dogode nego što vi to mislite,
da se dogode nego što vi to mislite,
23:13
and then they happen much faster
than you thought they could."
than you thought they could."
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1381840
2958
a tada se dogode mnogo brže
nego što ste mislili da mogu."
nego što ste mislili da mogu."
Mislim da smo mi u istoj situaciji.
23:16
I really think that's where we are.
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1384822
1698
23:18
Some people are using the phrase
"The Solar Singularity" now,
"The Solar Singularity" now,
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1386544
3677
Neki sada koriste izraz
"Solarni singularitet"
"Solarni singularitet"
23:22
meaning when it gets
below the grid parity,
below the grid parity,
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1390245
3293
što znači da kada padne
ispod razine pariteta mreže,
ispod razine pariteta mreže,
23:25
unsubsidized in most places,
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1393562
2048
koja na većini mjesta
nije subvencionirana,
nije subvencionirana,
23:27
then it's the default choice.
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1395634
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onda je to postaje zadani izbor.
23:29
Now, in one of the presentations
yesterday, the jitney thing,
yesterday, the jitney thing,
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5990
U jednoj od jučerašnjih prezentacija,
o onoj "jitney" stvari,
o onoj "jitney" stvari,
23:35
there is an effort to use
regulations to slow this down.
regulations to slow this down.
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1403314
5107
vidjeli ste da se ulažu napori kako
bi se regulativama to usporilo.
bi se regulativama to usporilo.
Ja ne vjerujem da će to uspjeti.
23:40
And I just don't think it's going to work.
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1408445
3139
23:44
There's a woman in Atlanta, Debbie Dooley,
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1412608
2396
U Atlanti živi jedna žena,
Debbie Dooley,
Debbie Dooley,
23:47
who's the Chairman
of the Atlanta Tea Party.
of the Atlanta Tea Party.
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1415028
2081
koja je predsjednica
Tea Party pokreta u Atlanti.
Tea Party pokreta u Atlanti.
23:49
They enlisted her
in this effort to put a tax
in this effort to put a tax
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1417133
2177
Angažirali su je u nastojanju da oporezuju
23:51
on solar panels and regulations.
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1419334
2123
solarne ploče i regulacije.
23:53
And she had just put
solar panels on her roof
solar panels on her roof
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1421481
2119
Ona je netom prije toga postavila
solarne ploče na svoj kov
solarne ploče na svoj kov
23:55
and she didn't understand the request.
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1423624
1866
i nije razumjela što su htjeli od nje.
(Smijeh)
23:57
(Laughter)
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1425514
1765
Tako da se povezala sa Sierra Klubom
23:59
And so she went and formed
an alliance with the Sierra Club
an alliance with the Sierra Club
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1427303
3478
24:02
and they formed a new organization
called the Green Tea Party.
called the Green Tea Party.
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1430805
4053
i zajedno su osnovali novu organizaciju
nazvanu Green Tea Party.
nazvanu Green Tea Party.
(Smijeh)
24:06
(Laughter)
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1434882
1002
(Pljesak)
24:07
(Applause)
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1435908
1001
I osporili su taj zahtjev.
24:08
And they defeated the proposal.
473
1436933
1488
24:10
So, finally, the answer
to your question is,
to your question is,
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1438445
3226
Tako da je odgovor na Vaše pitanje,
24:13
this sounds a little corny
and maybe it's a cliché,
and maybe it's a cliché,
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1441695
3033
ovo zvuči malo otrcano i možda je klišej,
24:16
but 10 years ago -- and Christiana
referred to this --
referred to this --
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1444752
3516
no prije 10 godina - i Christiana
je to spomenula -
je to spomenula -
24:20
there are people in this audience
who played an incredibly significant role
who played an incredibly significant role
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1448292
5907
u ovoj publici su ljudi koji su imali
nevjerojatno značajnu ulogu u
nevjerojatno značajnu ulogu u
24:26
in generating those exponential curves.
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1454223
2801
stvaranju onih eksponencijalnih krivulja.
24:29
And it didn't work out economically
for some of them,
for some of them,
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1457048
2524
Za neke to nije bilo ekonomično isplativo,
24:31
but it kick-started
this global revolution.
this global revolution.
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1459596
3054
no pokrenulo je ovu globalnu revoluciju.
I ono što ljudi u publici sada rade
24:34
And what people in this audience do now
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1462674
3779
sa znanjem da ćemo pobijediti ovo.
24:38
with the knowledge
that we are going to win this.
that we are going to win this.
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1466477
2505
24:41
But it matters a lot how fast we win it.
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1469006
4230
Jako je bitno koliko brzo ćemo pobijediti.
CA: Al Gore, to je bilo
nevjerojatno snažno.
nevjerojatno snažno.
24:45
CA: Al Gore, that was incredibly powerful.
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1473260
2357
24:47
If this turns out to be the year,
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1475641
1675
Ako se ispostavi da je ovo godina
24:49
that the partisan thing changes,
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1477340
2828
u kojoj se stranačko
preferenciranje promijeni,
preferenciranje promijeni,
24:52
as you said, it's no longer
a partisan issue,
a partisan issue,
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1480192
3378
kako ste rekli, to više nije
pitanje uzimanja strana,
pitanje uzimanja strana,
nego se ujedini ljude sa suprotnih strana,
24:55
but you bring along people
from the other side together,
from the other side together,
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1483594
4166
24:59
backed by science, backed by these kinds
of investment opportunities,
of investment opportunities,
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1487784
3285
koje podupire znanost i
mogućnosti za ulaganja,
mogućnosti za ulaganja,
25:03
backed my reason that you win the day --
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2108
i misao da treba pobijediti --
25:05
boy, that's really exciting.
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2359
to je zaista uzbudljivo.
25:07
Thank you so much.
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1495608
1168
Hvala Vam puno.
25:08
AG: Thank you so much
for bringing me back to TED.
for bringing me back to TED.
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2507
AG: Hvala Vama što ste me
ponovo pozvali na TED.
ponovo pozvali na TED.
Hvala!
25:11
Thank you!
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(Pljesak)
25:12
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Al Gore - Climate advocateNobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions.
Why you should listen
Former Vice President Al Gore is co-founder and chairman of Generation Investment Management. While he’s is a senior partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and a member of Apple, Inc.’s board of directors, Gore spends the majority of his time as chair of The Climate Reality Project, a nonprofit devoted to solving the climate crisis.
He is the author of the bestsellers Earth in the Balance, An Inconvenient Truth, The Assault on Reason, Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis, and most recently, The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change. He is the subject of the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth and is the co-recipient, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 for “informing the world of the dangers posed by climate change.”
Gore was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1976, 1978, 1980 and 1982 and the U.S. Senate in 1984 and 1990. He was inaugurated as the 45th Vice President of the United States on January 20, 1993, and served eight years.
Al Gore | Speaker | TED.com