TED2016
Al Gore: The case for optimism on climate change
阿尔•戈尔: 气候变化的乐观情况
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阿尔·戈尔对于气候变化和我们的未来有三个问题。第一：我们必须得改变吗？每天，导致全球变暖的污染物吸收相当于40万颗广岛级别原子弹释放的热量。这些被吸收的热量导致更强烈的风暴和更极端的洪水，他说：“每晚的电视新闻上就像是在上演《启示录》”。第二个问题：我们可以改变吗？我们已经开始了。那么，最后的大问题：我们会改变吗？在这一挑战性的、鼓舞人心的演讲中，戈尔说，会的。当任何一个伟大的精神挑战最终被分解成什么是对什么是错的二元选择时，结果都是预先注定好的，因为我们是人类。百分之九十九的人，是站在我们这边。这就是为什么我们会赢得这场比赛。
Al Gore - Climate advocate
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Nobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
I was excited to be a part
of the "Dream" theme,
of the "Dream" theme,
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我之前很兴奋能成为“梦想”主题的一员，
00:17
and then I found out I'm leading off
the "Nightmare?" section of it.
the "Nightmare?" section of it.
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但后来我发现我正在带头发言
“噩梦?”这个章节．．．
“噩梦?”这个章节．．．
00:20
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
00:23
And certainly there are things
about the climate crisis that qualify.
about the climate crisis that qualify.
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当然也有关于气候危机的描述。
00:28
And I have some bad news,
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我有一些坏消息，
00:30
but I have a lot more good news.
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但是我有更多的好消息。
00:32
I'm going to propose three questions
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我会提出三个问题，
00:36
and the answer to the first one
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而第一个问题的答案
00:39
necessarily involves a little bad news.
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无可避免的会有一些坏消息。
00:41
But -- hang on, because the answers
to the second and third questions
to the second and third questions
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但，别气馁，因为第二和第三个问题的答案，
00:46
really are very positive.
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真的是非常正面的。
00:49
So the first question is,
"Do we really have to change?"
"Do we really have to change?"
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那么，第一个问题是：
＂我们必须得改变吗？＂
＂我们必须得改变吗？＂
当然，阿波罗任务，以及其他事情
00:54
And of course, the Apollo Mission,
among other things
among other things
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00:59
changed the environmental movement,
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改变了环境运动，
01:01
really launched the modern
environmental movement
environmental movement
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真正地发起了现代环境运动。
01:04
18 months after this Earthrise picture
was first seen on earth,
was first seen on earth,
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在第一次看到这张地球
升起的照片18个月后，
升起的照片18个月后，
01:08
the first Earth Day was organized.
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第一次的世界地球日被组织成立了
01:11
And we learned a lot about ourselves
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通过从太空中回顾我们的星球，
01:14
looking back at our planet from space.
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我们学到了很多
关于我们自己的事情。
关于我们自己的事情。
01:17
And one of the things that we learned
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而我们所学到的其中一件事，
01:19
confirmed what the scientists
have long told us.
have long told us.
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证实了科学家们很早
就告诉过我们的。
就告诉过我们的。
01:21
One of the most essential facts
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其中一项最重要的事实就是
01:23
about the climate crisis
has to do with the sky.
has to do with the sky.
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气候危机和天空息息相关。
01:26
As this picture illustrates,
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如这张图片所展示的，
01:28
the sky is not the vast
and limitless expanse
and limitless expanse
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天空并不是像我们从地上
仰望所看到的那么浩瀚无垠。
仰望所看到的那么浩瀚无垠。
01:31
that appears when we look up
from the ground.
from the ground.
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它是由大气所组成，
01:34
It is a very thin shell of atmosphere
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围绕着地球的一层薄薄的壳。
01:38
surrounding the planet.
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01:40
That right now is the open sewer
for our industrial civilization
for our industrial civilization
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按照当前的管理形式，
现在它是我们工业文明的
公共排污场。
01:45
as it's currently organized.
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01:47
We are spewing 110 million tons
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我们每24小时喷出1.1亿吨
01:51
of heat-trapping global warming pollution
into it every 24 hours,
into it every 24 hours,
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导致全球变暖的吸热污染物，
免费的，继续吧。
01:56
free of charge, go ahead.
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01:58
And there are many sources
of the greenhouse gases,
of the greenhouse gases,
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温室气体的来源很多，
02:01
I'm certainly not going
to go through them all.
to go through them all.
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我当然不会谈及到所有的。
02:03
I'm going to focus on the main one,
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我会把重点放在主要的上面，
02:05
but agriculture is involved,
diet is involved, population is involved.
diet is involved, population is involved.
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但这与农业有关，
饮食有关，人口有关。
饮食有关，人口有关。
02:09
Management of forests, transportation,
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与森林、运输
海洋，永久冻土层融化的管理有关。
02:11
the oceans, the melting of the permafrost.
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02:14
But I'm going to focus
on the heart of the problem,
on the heart of the problem,
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但是，我会聚焦在问题的核心。
02:16
which is the fact that we still rely
on dirty, carbon-based fuels
on dirty, carbon-based fuels
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也就是事实上,
全世界每年有百分之85的能源
全世界每年有百分之85的能源
02:21
for 85 percent of all the energy
that our world burns every year.
that our world burns every year.
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依然是靠燃烧肮脏的碳基燃料所产生。
02:27
And you can see from this image
that after World War II,
that after World War II,
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你们可以从这张图上看到，从二战后，
02:31
the emission rates
started really accelerating.
started really accelerating.
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碳排放率开始急剧窜升。
02:34
And the accumulated amount
of man-made, global warming pollution
of man-made, global warming pollution
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而人为累积的地球暖化汙染物
现正上升到大气层中。
02:37
that is up in the atmosphere now
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现在吸收的额外热量，
02:39
traps as much extra heat energy
as would be released
as would be released
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相当于40万颗广岛级别
02:43
by 400,000 Hiroshima-class
atomic bombs exploding
atomic bombs exploding
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原子弹爆炸所释放的热量，
而且是每24小时，一年365天的释放。
02:48
every 24 hours, 365 days a year.
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事实被查证了一遍又一遍，
02:52
Fact-checked over and over again,
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02:54
conservative, it's the truth.
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保守说，这就是事实。
02:56
Now it's a big planet, but --
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虽然它是个大星球，不过——
02:59
(Explosion sound)
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（爆炸声）
03:01
that is a lot of energy,
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那是很大的能量，
03:02
particularly when you multiply it
400,000 times per day.
400,000 times per day.
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特别是当你乘以40万倍后，
就是每天的量。
就是每天的量。
那些所有的额外热量
03:08
And all that extra heat energy
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03:10
is heating up the atmosphere,
the whole earth system.
the whole earth system.
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正在加热大气层，
加热整个地球系统。
加热整个地球系统。
03:13
Let's look at the atmosphere.
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让我们看看大气层。
03:15
This is a depiction
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这张图所描述的
03:16
of what we used to think of as
the normal distribution of temperatures.
the normal distribution of temperatures.
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是我们过去常用的气温常态分布图。
03:22
The white represents
normal temperature days;
normal temperature days;
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白色区域表示正常气温的天数，
03:25
1951-1980 are arbitrarily chosen.
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1951-1980年是随机选择的。
03:28
The blue are cooler than average days,
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蓝色是比一般气温凉快的天数，
03:30
the red are warmer than average days.
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红色是比一般气温暖和的天数。
03:32
But the entire curve has moved
to the right in the 1980s.
to the right in the 1980s.
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但是整条曲线在上世纪
80年代向右移动了。
80年代向右移动了。
03:36
And you'll see
in the lower right-hand corner
in the lower right-hand corner
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在右下角你们可以看到，
03:38
the appearance of statistically
significant numbers
significant numbers
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极端炎热的天数
03:41
of extremely hot days.
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在统计上出现显著的数字。
03:42
In the 90s, the curve shifted further.
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在90年代，曲线进一步移动。
03:44
And in the last 10 years,
you see the extremely hot days
you see the extremely hot days
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在过去10年，你们看到极端炎热的天数
03:48
are now more numerous
than the cooler than average days.
than the cooler than average days.
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大大的多于凉爽气温和
一般气温的天数。
一般气温的天数。
03:52
In fact, they are 150 times more common
on the surface of the earth
on the surface of the earth
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实际上，比起30年前，
炎热的日子在地球表面整整多出了150倍。
炎热的日子在地球表面整整多出了150倍。
03:57
than they were just 30 years ago.
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04:01
So we're having
record-breaking temperatures.
record-breaking temperatures.
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所以我们正拥有着破纪录的温度，
04:04
Fourteen of the 15 of the hottest years
ever measured with instruments
ever measured with instruments
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在有仪表测量以来的最热的15个年份中，
04:08
have been in this young century.
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有14个是在这个年轻的世纪。
04:09
The hottest of all was last year.
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其中最热的一年是去年。
04:12
Last month was the 371st month in a row
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上个月是连续较20世纪
平均气温暖和的第371个月。
04:15
warmer than the 20th-century average.
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04:17
And for the first time,
not only the warmest January,
not only the warmest January,
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这是第一次，不仅是最温暖的一月，
04:21
but for the first time, it was more
than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer
than two degrees Fahrenheit warmer
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也是第一次，比平均高了华氏2度。
04:26
than the average.
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04:28
These higher temperatures
are having an effect on animals,
are having an effect on animals,
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更高的气温正在影响动物，
04:32
plants, people, ecosystems.
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植物，人，生态系统。
04:35
But on a global basis, 93 percent
of all the extra heat energy
of all the extra heat energy
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但在全球基础上，93%的额外热量
是被困在海洋中。
04:40
is trapped in the oceans.
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04:42
And the scientists can measure
the heat buildup
the heat buildup
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如今科学家们可以
更精确地
04:44
much more precisely now
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在所有的深度测量热量的形成：
04:45
at all depths: deep, mid-ocean,
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深海，海洋中间，水下几百米。
04:47
the first few hundred meters.
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04:49
And this, too, is accelerating.
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同样显示，正在加速。
04:52
It goes back more than a century.
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这可以追溯到一个世纪以前，
04:54
And more than half of the increase
has been in the last 19 years.
has been in the last 19 years.
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有超过一半的上升，发生在过去的19年里。
04:58
This has consequences.
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这是有后果的。
04:59
The first order of consequence:
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第一个后果：
05:01
the ocean-based storms get stronger.
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源于海洋的风暴变得更加强烈。
05:03
Super Typhoon Haiyan
went over areas of the Pacific
went over areas of the Pacific
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超级台风海燕，
在它袭击塔克洛班之前，
05:06
five and a half degrees Fahrenheit
warmer than normal
warmer than normal
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所经过的太平洋区域
较正常温度高5.5华氏度。
05:09
before it slammed into Tacloban,
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05:11
as the most destructive storm
ever to make landfall.
ever to make landfall.
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它是有史以来最具破坏性的登陆型风暴。
05:15
Pope Francis, who has made
such a difference to this whole issue,
such a difference to this whole issue,
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教皇弗兰西斯，
使整个事件变得不同寻常，
使整个事件变得不同寻常，
05:20
visited Tacloban right after that.
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他在那之后拜访了塔克洛班。
05:22
Superstorm Sandy went over
areas of the Atlantic
areas of the Atlantic
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超级风暴桑迪，
在袭击纽约和新泽西之前，
05:25
nine degrees warmer than normal
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经过的大西洋区域
05:27
before slamming into
New York and New Jersey.
New York and New Jersey.
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较正常温度高出了九度。
05:31
The second order of consequences
are affecting all of us right now.
are affecting all of us right now.
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第二个后果正在影响我们所有人。
05:35
The warmer oceans are evaporating
much more water vapor into the skies.
much more water vapor into the skies.
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升温后的海洋正在蒸发
更多的水蒸汽到天空中。
05:40
Average humidity worldwide
has gone up four percent.
has gone up four percent.
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世界各地的平均湿度
已增加了百分之4，
已增加了百分之4，
05:44
And it creates these atmospheric rivers.
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它创造了这些大气河流。
05:47
The Brazilian scientists
call them "flying rivers."
call them "flying rivers."
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巴西科学家称他们为“飞行的河流”。
05:50
And they funnel all of that
extra water vapor over the land
extra water vapor over the land
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它们汇集所有的额外水蒸汽到陆地上方。
05:55
where storm conditions trigger
these massive record-breaking downpours.
these massive record-breaking downpours.
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触发了暴风雨的条件,
造成这些破纪录的倾盆大雨。
06:00
This is from Montana.
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这是来自蒙大那州的照片。
06:03
Take a look at this storm last August.
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看一下这个去年八月的暴风雨。
06:05
As it moves over Tucson, Arizona.
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当它经过亚利桑那州的图森时，
06:08
It literally splashes off the city.
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简直可以用倾泻了整座城市来形容。
06:11
These downpours are really unusual.
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这些倾盆大雨真的非常不寻常。
06:15
Last July in Houston, Texas,
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去年七月，在德克萨斯州的休斯敦，
06:18
it rained for two days,
162 billion gallons.
162 billion gallons.
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下了两天的雨,
雨量高达1620亿加仑，
雨量高达1620亿加仑，
06:21
That represents more than two days
of the full flow of Niagara Falls
of the full flow of Niagara Falls
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这表示降到城市中心的雨量
超过尼亚加拉大瀑布2天的流量。
06:25
in the middle of the city,
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06:26
which was, of course, paralyzed.
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这，当然，造成了城市的瘫痪。
06:28
These record downpours are creating
historic floods and mudslides.
historic floods and mudslides.
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这些空前的大雨造成了
历史性的洪水和泥石流。
06:32
This one is from Chile last year.
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这是来自去年智利的影片，
06:37
And you'll see that warehouse going by.
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你会看到那个仓库被冲走。
06:40
There are oil tankers cars going by.
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那边是油罐车被冲走。
06:42
This is from Spain last September,
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这个来自去年九月的西班牙，
06:44
you could call this the running
of the cars and trucks, I guess.
of the cars and trucks, I guess.
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我猜想，你们或许会称之为
轿车与卡车的「奔牛节」。
轿车与卡车的「奔牛节」。
现在每天晚上的电视新闻就像是在
06:49
Every night on the TV news now
is like a nature hike
is like a nature hike
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06:52
through the Book of Revelation.
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上演《启示录》。
06:54
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:56
I mean, really.
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我是认真的。
06:59
The insurance industry
has certainly noticed,
has certainly noticed,
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保险产业必然已经注意到 ，
07:01
the losses have been mounting up.
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亏损正在大幅增加。
07:03
They're not under any illusions
about what's happening.
about what's happening.
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他们对于正在发生的事
并没有任何的幻觉。
并没有任何的幻觉。
07:07
And the causality requires
a moment of discussion.
a moment of discussion.
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这中间的因果关系需要一段时间的讨论。
07:13
We're used to thinking of linear cause
and linear effect --
and linear effect --
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我们习惯于思考线性的因果——
07:16
one cause, one effect.
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一种原因，一种影响。
07:17
This is systemic causation.
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这是系统性的因果关系。
07:21
As the great Kevin Trenberth says,
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如伟大的凯文．特伦伯斯所说，
07:23
"All storms are different now.
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＂现在所有的风暴都不同。＂
07:24
There's so much extra energy
in the atmosphere,
in the atmosphere,
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在大气中有如此多的额外能量，
07:27
there's so much extra water vapor.
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有如此多的额外水蒸汽，
07:28
Every storm is different now."
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现在每个风暴都不同。
07:31
So, the same extra heat pulls
the soil moisture out of the ground
the soil moisture out of the ground
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因此，同样的额外热量从
地面将土壤中的水分吸走，
地面将土壤中的水分吸走，
07:36
and causes these deeper, longer,
more pervasive droughts
more pervasive droughts
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造成更深、更久、更常见的干旱。
07:40
and many of them are underway right now.
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现在有很多正在持续中。
07:42
It dries out the vegetation
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它使植被变干，
07:44
and causes more fires
in the western part of North America.
in the western part of North America.
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也在北美洲西部造成更多火灾。
07:47
There's certainly been evidence
of that, a lot of them.
of that, a lot of them.
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这当然有很多证据。
07:51
More lightning,
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更多闪电，
07:52
as the heat energy builds up,
a considerable amount
a considerable amount
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随着热量积聚，
也产生了相当数量的额外闪电。
也产生了相当数量的额外闪电。
07:55
of additional lightning also.
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07:58
These climate-related disasters also have
geopolitical consequences
geopolitical consequences
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这些与气候有关的灾难
也造成了地缘政治后果，
也造成了地缘政治后果，
和产生不稳定性。
08:05
and create instability.
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08:07
The climate-related historic drought
that started in Syria in 2006
that started in Syria in 2006
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2006年开始，在叙利亚发生的历史性干旱，
08:12
destroyed 60 percent
of the farms in Syria,
of the farms in Syria,
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摧毁了叙利亚60%的农场，
08:15
killed 80 percent of the livestock,
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造成80%的牲畜死亡，
08:18
and drove 1.5 million climate refugees
into the cities of Syria,
into the cities of Syria,
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使150万气候难民逃到叙利亚城。
08:22
where they collided with another
1.5 million refugees
1.5 million refugees
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在那儿他们遇到了另外150万
08:25
from the Iraq War.
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来自伊拉克战争的难民。
08:27
And along with other factors,
that opened the gates of Hell
that opened the gates of Hell
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加上其他因素，开启了地狱之门。
08:32
that people are trying to close now.
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现在人们正在努力去关上它。
08:35
The US Defense Department has long warned
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美国国防部很久以前就
08:37
of consequences from the climate crisis,
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针对气候危机的后果发出过警告，
08:40
including refugees,
food and water shortages
food and water shortages
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其中包括难民，食物及饮用水短缺，
08:44
and pandemic disease.
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和传染病。
08:46
Right now we're seeing microbial diseases
from the tropics spread
from the tropics spread
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现在我们看到微生物疾病从热带地区
向高纬度地区传播。
08:51
to the higher latitudes;
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08:52
the transportation revolution has had
a lot to do with this.
a lot to do with this.
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交通运输的革命跟这也有很大关系。
08:56
But the changing conditions
change the latitudes in the areas
change the latitudes in the areas
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但是，变化的条件改变了
微生物疾病在这些区域的活动范围，
09:00
where these microbial diseases
can become endemic
can become endemic
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使它们变成地方性的。
09:03
and change the range of the vectors,
like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.
like mosquitoes and ticks that carry them.
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还会改变带菌者的范围，
像蚊子和壁虱这样的携带者。
09:08
The Zika epidemic now --
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现在流行的寨卡病毒——
09:12
we're better positioned in North America
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我们位于北美要好一些，
09:14
because it's still a little too cool
and we have a better public health system.
and we have a better public health system.
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因为这儿仍然稍微冷一点，
还有我们有更好的公共卫生系统。
09:18
But when women in some regions
of South and Central America
of South and Central America
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但在南美和中美洲一些地区的妇女，
09:23
are advised not to get pregnant
for two years --
for two years --
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被建议在两年内不要怀孕——
09:25
that's something new,
that ought to get our attention.
that ought to get our attention.
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我们应当注意這些新的情况。
09:29
The Lancet, one of the two greatest
medical journals in the world,
medical journals in the world,
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《柳叶刀》，世界上最伟大的
两个医学期刊之一，
两个医学期刊之一，
09:33
last summer labeled this
a medical emergency now.
a medical emergency now.
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去年夏天将这事件
标记为医学紧急事件。
标记为医学紧急事件。
09:37
And there are many factors because of it.
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因为它有很多因素。
09:40
This is also connected
to the extinction crisis.
to the extinction crisis.
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这也和物种灭绝危机有关。
09:42
We're in danger of losing 50 percent
of all the living species on earth
of all the living species on earth
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到本世纪末我们有50%
地球物种消灭的风险。
地球物种消灭的风险。
09:46
by the end of this century.
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09:47
And already, land-based plants and animals
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现在，陆生植物和动物
09:50
are now moving towards the poles
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正以平均每天15英尺的
09:52
at an average rate of 15 feet per day.
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速度向地球两极移动。
09:56
Speaking of the North Pole,
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说到北极，
09:57
last December 29, the same storm
that caused historic flooding
that caused historic flooding
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去年12月29号，在美国中西部
造成历史性洪水的同样风暴，
10:03
in the American Midwest,
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10:04
raised temperatures at the North Pole
191
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使北极的气温较平常
10:07
50 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than normal,
192
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上升了50华氏度。
10:09
causing the thawing of the North Pole
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导致北极冰川
10:12
in the middle of the long,
dark, winter, polar night.
dark, winter, polar night.
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在漫长、黑暗、冬季的极夜中融化。
10:16
And when the land-based ice
of the Arctic melts,
of the Arctic melts,
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当北极陆地上的冰融化时，
10:20
it raises sea level.
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它会使海平面上升。
10:22
Paul Nicklen's beautiful photograph
from Svalbard illustrates this.
from Svalbard illustrates this.
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保罗•尼克伦在斯瓦尔巴特群岛
拍的漂亮照片说明了一切。
拍的漂亮照片说明了一切。
更危险的是格陵兰岛和南极洲，
10:26
It's more dangerous coming off Greenland
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10:28
and particularly, Antarctica.
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2006
尤其是南极洲。
10:30
The 10 largest risk cities
for sea-level rise by population
for sea-level rise by population
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针对海平面上升风险，
以人口数量排序，风险最大的10个城市，
10:35
are mostly in South and Southeast Asia.
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大多数在南亚和东南亚。
10:37
When you measure it by assets at risk,
number one is Miami:
number one is Miami:
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当你用财产损失的风险来衡量时，
排第一个是迈阿密：
10:42
three and a half trillion dollars at risk.
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3.5万亿美元的财产面临风险。
10:44
Number three: New York and Newark.
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1671
第三：纽约和纽瓦克。
10:46
I was in Miami last fall
during the supermoon,
during the supermoon,
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去年秋天，超级满月的期间，我在迈阿密，
10:49
one of the highest high-tide days.
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那几天是潮汐最大的时候。
10:52
And there were fish from the ocean
swimming in some of the streets
swimming in some of the streets
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有一些鱼从海里
游到迈阿密海滩、劳德代尔堡
10:56
of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale
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2151
和玛丽安德尔湾的一些街道上。
10:58
and Del Rey.
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1174
10:59
And this happens regularly
during the highest-tide tides now.
during the highest-tide tides now.
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在大潮汐期间，这经常发生。
11:02
Not with rain -- they call it
"sunny-day flooding."
"sunny-day flooding."
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没有下雨——
他们称之为“晴天洪水”。
他们称之为“晴天洪水”。
11:05
It comes up through the storm sewers.
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它是通过雨水管道过来的。
11:09
And the Mayor of Miami
speaks for many when he says
speaks for many when he says
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迈阿密市长替很多人发言：
过去有一段很长时间，
11:14
it is long past time this can be viewed
through a partisan lens.
through a partisan lens.
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这件事是透过党派的镜头来看待，
11:18
This is a crisis
that's getting worse day by day.
that's getting worse day by day.
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这是灾难，它一天比一天糟。
11:21
We have to move beyond partisanship.
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我们必须超越党派。
11:23
And I want to take a moment
to honor these House Republicans --
to honor these House Republicans --
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我想花一点时间来感谢这些
众议院的共和党人——
众议院的共和党人——
11:27
(Applause)
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1054
（鼓掌）
11:28
who had the courage last fall
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2833
那些在去年秋天有勇气，
11:30
to step out and take a political risk,
220
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4434
冒着政治风险站出来，
11:35
by telling the truth
about the climate crisis.
about the climate crisis.
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2739
讲述关于气候危机的真相的人。
11:38
So the cost of the climate
crisis is mounting up,
crisis is mounting up,
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因此气候危机的成本正在增加。
11:41
there are many of these aspects
I haven't even mentioned.
I haven't even mentioned.
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有很多方面我还没有提到。
11:45
It's an enormous burden.
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1973
这是巨大的负担。
11:47
I'll mention just one more,
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1564
我要再提一项，
11:48
because the World Economic Forum
last month in Davos,
last month in Davos,
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4727
因为上个月在达沃斯举行
的世界经济论坛，
的世界经济论坛，
11:53
after their annual survey
of 750 economists,
of 750 economists,
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3017
在对750名经济学家进行了年度调查后，
11:56
said the climate crisis is now
the number one risk
the number one risk
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2860
说现在气候危机是
全球经济的头号风险。
11:59
to the global economy.
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1829
12:01
So you get central bankers
230
709205
1318
因此听到央行行长们，
12:02
like Mark Carney, the head
of the UK Central Bank,
of the UK Central Bank,
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2770
如马克•卡尼，英国中央银行的头，
12:05
saying the vast majority
of the carbon reserves are unburnable.
of the carbon reserves are unburnable.
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4036
说绝大多数的碳储量是不可燃烧的。
12:09
Subprime carbon.
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1746
次级碳。
12:11
I'm not going to remind you what happened
with subprime mortgages,
with subprime mortgages,
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3291
我不会提醒你们次级抵押贷款导致的后果，
12:14
but it's the same thing.
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1602
但这是同样的事。
12:16
If you look at all of the carbon fuels
that were burned
that were burned
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2715
如果你看自从工业革命以来，
12:18
since the beginning
of the industrial revolution,
of the industrial revolution,
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燃烧的所有碳燃料。
12:21
this is the quantity burned
in the last 16 years.
in the last 16 years.
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3516
是过去16年燃烧的总量。
12:25
Here are all the ones that are proven
and left on the books,
and left on the books,
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3579
这是书上证明并记载下来的，
12:28
28 trillion dollars.
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1788
28万亿美元。
12:30
The International Energy Agency
says only this amount can be burned.
says only this amount can be burned.
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4209
国际能源局说只有这部份能被燃烧。
12:34
So the rest, 22 trillion dollars --
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2889
因此，剩余的22万亿美元——
12:37
unburnable.
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1197
不能燃烧。
12:39
Risk to the global economy.
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2233
全球经济的风险。
12:41
That's why divestment movement
makes practical sense
makes practical sense
245
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3037
这也是为什么撤资运动这么有实质意义。
12:44
and is not just a moral imperative.
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不仅仅是一项道德律令。
12:47
So the answer to the first question,
"Must we change?"
"Must we change?"
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因此第一个题，
“我们必须得改变吗？”的答案是
“我们必须得改变吗？”的答案是
12:51
is yes, we have to change.
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1924
“是的”，我们必须得改变。
12:53
Second question, "Can we change?"
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第二个问题，“我们能改变吗？”
12:55
This is the exciting news!
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763143
2321
这是令人振奋的消息！
12:57
The best projections
in the world 16 years ago
in the world 16 years ago
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3505
16年前，世上最好的预测是
13:01
were that by 2010, the world
would be able to install
would be able to install
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4031
到2010年前，全球将有能力
13:05
30 gigawatts of wind capacity.
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2167
安装 30 GW的风力发电。
13:07
We beat that mark
by 14 and a half times over.
by 14 and a half times over.
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我们用了14年半达到了那个目标。
13:12
We see an exponential curve
for wind installations now.
for wind installations now.
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3784
现在我们看到风力发电的
装机量指数曲线。
装机量指数曲线。
13:16
We see the cost coming down dramatically.
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3575
我们看到成本的急剧下降。
13:19
Some countries -- take Germany,
an industrial powerhouse
an industrial powerhouse
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一些国家——比如德国，
一个与温哥华气候相差
无几的工业厂房——
无几的工业厂房——
13:22
with a climate not that different
from Vancouver's, by the way --
from Vancouver's, by the way --
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3368
13:26
one day last December,
259
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1635
去年12月的某一天，
13:28
got 81 percent of all its energy
from renewable resources,
from renewable resources,
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3438
有81%的能源来自可再生资源，
13:31
mainly solar and wind.
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1633
大部分是太阳能和风能。
13:33
A lot of countries are getting
more than half on an average basis.
more than half on an average basis.
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3301
平均上许多国家，
从可再生资源获得的能源都在一半以上。
13:36
More good news:
263
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1158
更多好消息：
13:37
energy storage,
from batteries particularly,
from batteries particularly,
264
805636
3023
能源储存，尤其是电池储存，
13:40
is now beginning to take off
265
808683
1594
已经开始腾飞。
13:42
because the cost has been
coming down very dramatically
coming down very dramatically
266
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3793
因为成本已经在急剧地下降
13:46
to solve the intermittency problem.
267
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1773
以解决供能的不连续性问题。
13:47
With solar, the news is even
more exciting!
more exciting!
268
815915
2511
对于太阳能，消息更让人振奋！
13:50
The best projections 14 years ago
were that we would install
were that we would install
269
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3349
14年前最好的预测是到2010年前，
13:53
one gigawatt per year by 2010.
270
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2547
我们将每年安装 1 GW。
13:56
When 2010 came around,
we beat that mark by 17 times over.
we beat that mark by 17 times over.
271
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4620
当2010年到来时，我们超过了17倍。
14:01
Last year, we beat it by 58 times over.
272
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3585
去年，我们超过了58倍。
14:04
This year, we're on track
to beat it 68 times over.
to beat it 68 times over.
273
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3240
今年，我们正在超过它68倍的路上。
14:07
We're going to win this.
274
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1190
我们正在赢得这场比赛。
14:09
We are going to prevail.
275
837125
1734
我们将获胜。
14:10
The exponential curve on solar
is even steeper and more dramatic.
is even steeper and more dramatic.
276
838883
4083
太阳能的指数曲线更陡，更急骤。
14:14
When I came to this stage 10 years ago,
277
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1929
当10年前我来到这个舞台时，
14:16
this is where it was.
278
844943
1395
它在这个。
14:18
We have seen a revolutionary breakthrough
279
846894
3554
从这个指数曲线上
14:22
in the emergence
of these exponential curves.
of these exponential curves.
280
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3189
我们已经看到一个革命性的突破。
14:25
(Applause)
281
853685
3224
（鼓掌）
14:28
And the cost has come down
10 percent per year
10 percent per year
282
856933
3497
成本已经连续30年
14:32
for 30 years.
283
860454
1299
每年下降10%了。
14:33
And it's continuing to come down.
284
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2298
它还在继续下降。
14:36
Now, the business community
has certainly noticed this,
has certainly noticed this,
285
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2646
现在，商业界肯定已经注意到了这点，
14:38
because it's crossing
the grid parity point.
the grid parity point.
286
866769
2809
因为它正在突破市电平价
（电网的平价点）。
（电网的平价点）。
14:41
Cheaper solar penetration rates
are beginning to rise.
are beginning to rise.
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869602
3252
便宜的太阳能普及率正在开始上升。
14:44
Grid parity is understood
as that line, that threshold,
as that line, that threshold,
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872878
3516
电网平价被理解为那条
“界线”，即“门槛”，
“界线”，即“门槛”，
14:48
below which renewable electricity
is cheaper than electricity
is cheaper than electricity
289
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3874
低于它的可再生能源电力
14:52
from burning fossil fuels.
290
880316
2218
将比燃烧化石燃料的电力更便宜。
14:54
That threshold is a little bit
like the difference
like the difference
291
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2693
这个“界线”有点像
14:57
between 32 degrees Fahrenheit
and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,
and 33 degrees Fahrenheit,
292
885275
4110
32华氏度与33华氏度之间的区别，
15:01
or zero and one Celsius.
293
889409
1586
或0和1摄氏度。
15:03
It's a difference of more than one degree,
294
891019
2024
它不只是1度的差别，
15:05
it's the difference between ice and water.
295
893067
2701
而是冰和水的差别。
15:07
And it's the difference between markets
that are frozen up,
that are frozen up,
296
895792
3944
这是冻结的市场，
15:11
and liquid flows of capital
into new opportunities for investment.
into new opportunities for investment.
297
899760
4532
与资金不断拥入新的投资机会的差别。
15:16
This is the biggest
new business opportunity
new business opportunity
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904316
3605
这是世界上有史以来最大的
15:19
in the history of the world,
299
907945
1532
新的商业机会。
15:21
and two-thirds of it
is in the private sector.
is in the private sector.
300
909501
3148
三分之二是在私营部门。
15:24
We are seeing an explosion
of new investment.
of new investment.
301
912673
3436
我们看到暴发性的新投资。
15:28
Starting in 2010, investments globally
in renewable electricity generation
in renewable electricity generation
302
916133
5568
从2010年开始，全球在
可再生资源发电上的投资
可再生资源发电上的投资
15:33
surpassed fossils.
303
921725
1533
超过了化石能源。
15:35
The gap has been growing ever since.
304
923282
2416
差距还在不断扩大。
15:37
The projections for the future
are even more dramatic,
are even more dramatic,
305
925722
2948
对未来的预测更激动人心的，
15:40
even though fossil energy
is now still subsidized
is now still subsidized
306
928694
3599
尽管化石能源的补贴现在仍然
15:44
at a rate 40 times larger than renewables.
307
932317
3227
比可再生能源高40倍。
15:47
And by the way, if you add
the projections for nuclear on here,
the projections for nuclear on here,
308
935568
4090
顺便提一下，如果在预测中算上核能，
15:51
particularly if you assume
that the work many are doing
that the work many are doing
309
939682
2621
特别是，如果你假设正在进行的很多工作
15:54
to try to break through to safer
and more acceptable,
and more acceptable,
310
942327
2714
都在努力带来更安全和更可接受
15:57
more affordable forms of nuclear,
311
945065
1839
更便宜的核能，
15:58
this could change even more dramatically.
312
946928
2443
这甚至会改变得更显著。
16:01
So is there any precedent
for such a rapid adoption
for such a rapid adoption
313
949934
2956
那么有没有这样快速地采用
16:04
of a new technology?
314
952914
1729
新技术的先例呢？
16:06
Well, there are many,
but let's look at cell phones.
but let's look at cell phones.
315
954667
2460
嗯，有很多，让我们看看手机。
16:09
In 1980, AT&T, then Ma Bell,
316
957151
3373
1980年，美国电话电报公司，
然后是马贝尔，
然后是马贝尔，
16:12
commissioned McKinsey to do
a global market survey
a global market survey
317
960548
2393
委托麦肯锡做一个
关于当时出现的那些笨重的
16:14
of those clunky new mobile phones
that appeared then.
that appeared then.
318
962965
3616
新手机的全球市场调查。
16:18
"How many can we sell
by the year 2000?" they asked.
by the year 2000?" they asked.
319
966605
3163
“我们2000年能卖出多少部？”他们问道。
16:21
McKinsey came back and said, "900,000."
320
969792
2568
麦肯锡回来后说道，“90万部。”
16:24
And sure enough,
when the year 2000 arrived,
when the year 2000 arrived,
321
972384
2072
那已经够多的了，当2000年到来时，
16:26
they did sell 900,000 --
in the first three days.
in the first three days.
322
974480
2578
仅仅在头三天他们就卖出了90万部，
16:29
And for the balance of the year,
they sold 120 times more.
they sold 120 times more.
323
977082
3912
一年当中，他们多卖了120倍。
16:33
And now there are more cell connections
than there are people in the world.
than there are people in the world.
324
981018
4376
现在有更多的手机，
比全世界的人还多。
比全世界的人还多。
16:37
So, why were they not only wrong,
but way wrong?
but way wrong?
325
985418
4469
那么，为什么他们不只是错了，
还大大地错了呢？
还大大地错了呢？
16:41
I've asked that question myself, "Why?"
326
989911
2400
我问过我自己，“为什么？”
16:44
(Laughter)
327
992335
1003
（笑声）
16:45
And I think the answer is in three parts.
328
993362
2233
我认为答案分三部份。
16:48
First, the cost came down much faster
than anybody expected,
than anybody expected,
329
996122
3389
首先，成本下降得
比任何人预期的都要快，
比任何人预期的都要快，
16:51
even as the quality went up.
330
999535
2507
即使质量上升了。
16:54
And low-income countries, places
that did not have a landline grid --
that did not have a landline grid --
331
1002066
4272
低收入国家，那些没有
固定网络的地方——
固定网络的地方——
16:58
they leap-frogged to the new technology.
332
1006362
2228
他们直接跨越到新技术。
17:00
The big expansion has been
in the developing counties.
in the developing counties.
333
1008614
3064
大扩张已经在发展中国家中进行。
17:03
So what about the electricity grids
in the developing world?
in the developing world?
334
1011702
3748
那么在发展中国家的电网呢？
17:07
Well, not so hot.
335
1015474
1730
好吧，沒那么热。
17:09
And in many areas, they don't exist.
336
1017228
2298
在很多地区，它们不存在。
17:11
There are more people
without any electricity at all in India
without any electricity at all in India
337
1019550
3146
在印度没有任何电力的人
17:14
than the entire population
of the United States of America.
of the United States of America.
338
1022720
3122
比整个美国的人口还多。
17:17
So now we're getting this:
339
1025866
1504
我们现在来看这个：
17:19
solar panels on grass huts
340
1027394
1838
茅草屋顶上的太阳能板。
17:21
and new business models
that make it affordable.
that make it affordable.
341
1029256
2938
新的商业模式使人们负担得起。
17:24
Muhammad Yunus financed
this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.
this one in Bangladesh with micro-credit.
342
1032218
4885
穆罕默德•尤努斯
透过孟加拉国的小额贷款买了这个。
17:29
This is a village market.
343
1037127
1708
这是个乡村市场。
17:30
Bangladesh is now the fastest-deploying
country in the world:
country in the world:
344
1038859
2890
孟加拉国现在是全世界部署
这种太阳能板最快的国家：
这种太阳能板最快的国家：
17:33
two systems per minute
on average, night and day.
on average, night and day.
345
1041773
2412
不分昼夜，平均每分钟安装两套系统。
17:36
And we have all we need:
346
1044209
1189
我们有需要的一切：
17:37
enough energy from the Sun
comes to the Earth
comes to the Earth
347
1045422
2292
足够的能源，每小时从
太阳到达地球的能量，
太阳到达地球的能量，
17:39
every hour to supply the full world's
energy needs for an entire year.
energy needs for an entire year.
348
1047738
5363
能供应全球一整年的能源需求。
17:45
It's actually a little bit
less than an hour.
less than an hour.
349
1053125
2173
实际上稍微低于一小时。
17:47
So the answer to the second question,
"Can we change?"
"Can we change?"
350
1055322
3332
因此第二个问题，
“我们能改变吗？”的答案
“我们能改变吗？”的答案
17:50
is clearly "Yes."
351
1058678
1923
显然是“是”，
17:52
And it's an ever-firmer "yes."
352
1060625
2772
而且是一个更坚定的“是”。
17:55
Last question, "Will we change?"
353
1063421
2608
最后一个问题，“我们会改变吗？”
17:58
Paris really was a breakthrough,
354
1066053
1992
巴黎峰会真的是一个突破。
18:00
some of the provisions are binding
355
1068069
1663
有些规定是有约束力的，
18:01
and the regular reviews will matter a lot.
356
1069756
2038
定期回顾将会起重要作用。
18:03
But nations aren't waiting,
they're going ahead.
they're going ahead.
357
1071818
2251
但是有些国家没有等待，
他们在继续前进。
他们在继续前进。
18:06
China has already announced
that starting next year,
that starting next year,
358
1074093
2515
中国已经宣布明年开始，
18:08
they're adopting a nationwide
cap and trade system.
cap and trade system.
359
1076632
2983
将采取一个全国性的限制及交易体系。
18:11
They will likely link up
with the European Union.
with the European Union.
360
1079639
3143
他们可能会与欧盟联手起来。
18:14
The United States
has already been changing.
has already been changing.
361
1082806
2492
美国已经作出了改变。
18:17
All of these coal plants were proposed
362
1085322
2050
所有这些燃煤电厂
都被提议在未来10年内作废。
18:19
in the next 10 years and canceled.
363
1087396
2530
18:21
All of these existing
coal plants were retired.
coal plants were retired.
364
1089950
2919
所有这些现有的燃煤电厂都已经退役了。
18:24
All of these coal plants have had
their retirement announced.
their retirement announced.
365
1092893
3017
所有这些燃煤电厂都已经做了退役公布。
18:27
All of them -- canceled.
366
1095934
2328
它们全部——作废。
18:30
We are moving forward.
367
1098286
1490
我们正在前进。
18:31
Last year -- if you look at
all of the investment
all of the investment
368
1099800
2468
如果你们看看去年，
18:34
in new electricity generation
in the United States,
in the United States,
369
1102292
2943
在美国，所有新的电力投资，
18:37
almost three-quarters
was from renewable energy,
was from renewable energy,
370
1105259
2666
几乎四分之三来自于可再生能源，
18:39
mostly wind and solar.
371
1107949
2512
大多数是风能和太阳能。
18:42
We are solving this crisis.
372
1110485
3147
我们正在解决这场危机。
18:45
The only question is:
how long will it take to get there?
how long will it take to get there?
373
1113656
4899
唯一的问题是：多久才能到达那一步？
18:50
So, it matters that a lot
of people are organizing
of people are organizing
374
1118579
4617
因此，很多人组织起来
坚持这件事的改变很重要。
18:55
to insist on this change.
375
1123220
2138
18:57
Almost 400,000 people
marched in New York City
marched in New York City
376
1125382
3784
就在联合国关于此问题的特别会议前，
19:01
before the UN special session on this.
377
1129190
2847
近40万人在纽约进行了游行。
19:04
Many thousands, tens of thousands,
378
1132061
2004
成千上万，成千上万的人，
19:06
marched in cities around the world.
379
1134089
2873
在世界各地的城市进行了游行。
19:08
And so, I am extremely optimistic.
380
1136986
4143
因此，我非常乐观。
19:13
As I said before,
we are going to win this.
we are going to win this.
381
1141153
2555
如我前面所说，我们正在赢得这场比赛。
19:15
I'll finish with this story.
382
1143732
1967
我将用这个故事来完成演讲。
19:18
When I was 13 years old,
383
1146218
2592
当我13岁时，
19:20
I heard that proposal by President Kennedy
384
1148834
3431
我听到肯尼迪总统提议，
19:24
to land a person on the Moon
and bring him back safely
and bring him back safely
385
1152289
2551
在10年内，要送一个人登上月球，
19:26
in 10 years.
386
1154864
1165
然后把他平安地带回来。
19:28
And I heard adults
of that day and time say,
of that day and time say,
387
1156053
2984
我听到那时的成年人说，
19:31
"That's reckless, expensive,
may well fail."
may well fail."
388
1159061
3517
“那是鲁莽的，昂贵的，很可能会失败。”
19:34
But eight years and two months later,
389
1162602
2177
但是八年零二个月后，
19:36
in the moment that Neil Armstrong
set foot on the Moon,
set foot on the Moon,
390
1164803
3262
在尼尔•阿姆斯特朗踏上月球的那一刻，
19:40
there was great cheer that went up
in NASA's mission control in Houston.
in NASA's mission control in Houston.
391
1168089
4590
休斯敦美国航空航天局的
任务控制室响起了巨大的欢呼声。
19:44
Here's a little-known fact about that:
392
1172703
2460
这里有一个鲜为人知的事实：
19:47
the average age of the systems engineers,
393
1175187
2205
那天在控制室里的系统工程师的
19:49
the controllers in the room
that day, was 26,
that day, was 26,
394
1177416
3176
平均年龄是26岁。
19:52
which means, among other things,
395
1180616
1559
这意味着，不管其他的事情，
19:54
their age, when they heard
that challenge, was 18.
that challenge, was 18.
396
1182199
3250
当他们听到那个挑战时，
他们的年龄是18。
他们的年龄是18。
19:57
We now have a moral challenge
397
1185473
3202
如今我们有一个精神上的挑战，
20:00
that is in the tradition of others
that we have faced.
that we have faced.
398
1188699
3530
这是我们在其他问题上所面对过的传统。
20:04
One of the greatest poets
of the last century in the US,
of the last century in the US,
399
1192253
3654
上世纪美国最伟大的诗人之一，
20:07
Wallace Stevens,
400
1195931
1349
华莱士•史蒂文，
20:09
wrote a line that has stayed with me:
401
1197304
1818
写了一首诗，一直留在我的脑海中：
20:11
"After the final 'no,'
there comes a 'yes,'
there comes a 'yes,'
402
1199146
2483
＂在最后一个「不行」后，接着的是「行」，
20:13
and on that 'yes',
the future world depends."
the future world depends."
403
1201653
2981
而那个「行」，决定了未来。”
20:16
When the abolitionists
started their movement,
started their movement,
404
1204658
2285
当废奴主义者发起了他们的运动，
20:18
they met with no after no after no.
405
1206967
2207
他们遇到的是「不行」「不行」「不行」
20:21
And then came a yes.
406
1209198
1276
然后才是一个「行」。
20:22
The Women's Suffrage
and Women's Rights Movement
and Women's Rights Movement
407
1210498
2389
妇女的选举权和女性权利运动
20:24
met endless no's, until finally,
there was a yes.
there was a yes.
408
1212911
3595
遇到无数个「不行」，
直到最后，才有一个「行」。
直到最后，才有一个「行」。
20:28
The Civil Rights Movement,
the movement against apartheid,
the movement against apartheid,
409
1216530
2771
民权运动，反对种族隔离运动，
20:31
and more recently, the movement
for gay and lesbian rights
for gay and lesbian rights
410
1219325
3591
及最近，在美国和其他地方的
男同性恋和女同性恋权利运动。
20:34
here in the United States and elsewhere.
411
1222940
2405
20:37
After the final "no" comes a "yes."
412
1225369
2176
最后一个「不行」，最终迎来的是「行」。
20:39
When any great moral challenge
is ultimately resolved
is ultimately resolved
413
1227569
5133
当任何一个伟大的精神挑战，
最终被分解成，什么是对
什么是错的二元选择时，
什么是错的二元选择时，
20:44
into a binary choice
between what is right and what is wrong,
between what is right and what is wrong,
414
1232726
3855
20:48
the outcome is fore-ordained
because of who we are as human beings.
because of who we are as human beings.
415
1236605
4129
结果都是预先注定好的，因为我们是人类。
20:52
Ninety-nine percent of us,
that is where we are now
that is where we are now
416
1240758
3853
百分之九十九的人，是站在我们这边的，
20:56
and it is why we're going to win this.
417
1244635
2492
这就是为什么我们会赢得这场比赛的原因。
20:59
We have everything we need.
418
1247151
1938
我们已经拥有我们需要的一切。
21:01
Some still doubt that we have
the will to act,
the will to act,
419
1249113
3415
有些人仍在怀疑
我们是否有意愿去行动，
我们是否有意愿去行动，
21:04
but I say the will to act is itself
a renewable resource.
a renewable resource.
420
1252552
4690
但我要告诉你，行动意愿的本身
就是可再生资源。
就是可再生资源。
21:09
Thank you very much.
421
1257266
1207
非常感谢。
21:10
(Applause)
422
1258497
3471
（鼓掌）
谢谢。
谢谢。
非常感谢。
21:47
Chris Anderson: You've got this incredible
combination of skills.
combination of skills.
423
1295319
3183
克里斯•安德森：你拥有
诸多令人难以置信的技能。
诸多令人难以置信的技能。
21:50
You've got this scientist mind
that can understand
that can understand
424
1298526
2961
你有科学家的头脑，
能理解问题的所有面向，
21:53
the full range of issues,
425
1301511
2301
21:55
and the ability to turn it
into the most vivid language.
into the most vivid language.
426
1303836
3652
还有一种能将其转化为
生动的语言的能力。
生动的语言的能力。
没有其他人能做到，
21:59
No one else can do that,
that's why you led this thing.
that's why you led this thing.
427
1307512
2883
这就是为什么由你来领导这件事。
22:02
It was amazing to see it 10 years ago,
it was amazing to see it now.
it was amazing to see it now.
428
1310419
3411
10年前看起来是惊人的，
现在看起来还是惊人的。
现在看起来还是惊人的。
22:05
Al Gore: Well, you're nice
to say that, Chris.
to say that, Chris.
429
1313854
2175
阿尔•戈尔：嗯，你真好，
这样说，克里斯。
这样说，克里斯。
22:08
But honestly, I have a lot
of really good friends
of really good friends
430
1316053
3161
但老实说，在科学界我有
很多真正的非常好朋友，
很多真正的非常好朋友，
22:11
in the scientific community
who are incredibly patient
who are incredibly patient
431
1319238
3719
他们都是难以置信的耐心。
22:14
and who will sit there
and explain this stuff to me
and explain this stuff to me
432
1322981
2771
他们愿意坐下来向我
22:17
over and over and over again
433
1325776
1334
一遍又一遍又一遍地讲解，
22:19
until I can get it
into simple enough language
into simple enough language
434
1327134
3596
直到我能把它变成足够简单的,
我能理解的语言。
22:22
that I can understand it.
435
1330754
1212
22:23
And that's the key to trying
to communicate.
to communicate.
436
1331990
2928
这就是尝试沟通的关键。
克里斯•安德森：那么，你的演讲。
22:27
CA: So, your talk. First part: terrifying,
437
1335497
3685
第一部份：很吓人！
22:31
second part: incredibly hopeful.
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第二部份：难以置信的充满希望。
22:33
How do we know that all those graphs,
all that progress, is enough
all that progress, is enough
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我们如何知道所有这些图表和进展，
足以解决你在第一部分所揭示的问题？
22:39
to solve what you showed
in the first part?
in the first part?
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22:41
AG: I think that the crossing --
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阿尔•戈尔：我想是跨越——
22:45
you know, I've only been
in the business world for 15 years.
in the business world for 15 years.
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你知道，我进入商业界只有15年。
22:48
But one of the things I've learned
is that apparently it matters
is that apparently it matters
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但是我学到的，当然是重要的事情之一，
22:51
if a new product or service
is more expensive
is more expensive
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就是如果一个新产品或服务的价格
22:54
than the incumbent, or cheaper than.
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贵过它应负的义务，或者便宜过它应负的义务，
22:57
Turns out, it makes a difference
if it's cheaper than.
if it's cheaper than.
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结果就是，如果它更便宜，它会产生差异化，
22:59
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
23:00
And when it crosses that line,
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当它跨越那条界线时，
23:03
then a lot of things really change.
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然后很多事情真的会改变。
23:05
We are regularly surprised
by these developments.
by these developments.
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我们经常为这些事态发展感到惊讶。
23:08
The late Rudi Dornbusch,
the great economist said,
the great economist said,
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伟大的已故经济学家
鲁迪•多恩布施说：
鲁迪•多恩布施说：
23:11
"Things take longer to happen
then you think they will,
then you think they will,
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＂事情会发生的比你想的还要久
23:13
and then they happen much faster
than you thought they could."
than you thought they could."
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结果它们发生的比你想的快得多。 ”
23:16
I really think that's where we are.
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我真的认为我们正处在这种情境。
23:18
Some people are using the phrase
"The Solar Singularity" now,
"The Solar Singularity" now,
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一些人现在用“太阳能奇点”这句话，
23:22
meaning when it gets
below the grid parity,
below the grid parity,
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来表示，当它在没有补贴的時候，
23:25
unsubsidized in most places,
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若低于「市电同价」时，
23:27
then it's the default choice.
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它將成为默认（最佳）的选择。
23:29
Now, in one of the presentations
yesterday, the jitney thing,
yesterday, the jitney thing,
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在昨天的报告中，一件小事，
23:35
there is an effort to use
regulations to slow this down.
regulations to slow this down.
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5107
有人想用法规来让整件事慢下来。
23:40
And I just don't think it's going to work.
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我只是不认为它会奏效。
23:44
There's a woman in Atlanta, Debbie Dooley,
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在亚特兰大有一个女人，戴比．杜利，
23:47
who's the Chairman
of the Atlanta Tea Party.
of the Atlanta Tea Party.
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2081
她是亚特兰大的茶党主席。
23:49
They enlisted her
in this effort to put a tax
in this effort to put a tax
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他们招募她来试图
23:51
on solar panels and regulations.
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2123
在太阳能板上加税和加法规。
23:53
And she had just put
solar panels on her roof
solar panels on her roof
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她已经在她的房顶上装上了太阳能板
23:55
and she didn't understand the request.
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她不懂那个要求。
23:57
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
因此她离开了茶党，然后和
塞拉利昂俱乐部结成了联盟。
塞拉利昂俱乐部结成了联盟。
23:59
And so she went and formed
an alliance with the Sierra Club
an alliance with the Sierra Club
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3478
24:02
and they formed a new organization
called the Green Tea Party.
called the Green Tea Party.
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1430805
4053
然后他们组成了一个新的
组织，叫做绿色茶党。
组织，叫做绿色茶党。
24:06
(Laughter)
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1002
（笑声）
24:07
(Applause)
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1001
（鼓掌）
24:08
And they defeated the proposal.
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1488
然后他们击败了那个提议。
24:10
So, finally, the answer
to your question is,
to your question is,
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因此，最后，你问题的答案是，
24:13
this sounds a little corny
and maybe it's a cliché,
and maybe it's a cliché,
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3033
这听起来也许有些平淡或是陈词滥调，
24:16
but 10 years ago -- and Christiana
referred to this --
referred to this --
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但是10年前——克里斯蒂安娜指出——
24:20
there are people in this audience
who played an incredibly significant role
who played an incredibly significant role
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5907
听众中有人在创造那些指数曲线中
24:26
in generating those exponential curves.
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扮演了非常重要的角色。
24:29
And it didn't work out economically
for some of them,
for some of them,
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他们中的一些人，
发电状况虽沒那么地经济效率，
发电状况虽沒那么地经济效率，
24:31
but it kick-started
this global revolution.
this global revolution.
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但是它启动了全球革命。
24:34
And what people in this audience do now
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现在听众要做的事情，
24:38
with the knowledge
that we are going to win this.
that we are going to win this.
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就是用知识赢得这场比赛。
24:41
But it matters a lot how fast we win it.
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但我们能多快赢，这非常重要。
24:45
CA: Al Gore, that was incredibly powerful.
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克里斯•安德森：阿尔•戈尔，
这真的很激励人心。
这真的很激励人心。
24:47
If this turns out to be the year,
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如果，党派之间的改变那一年的到来时，
24:49
that the partisan thing changes,
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2828
24:52
as you said, it's no longer
a partisan issue,
a partisan issue,
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3378
如你所说的，这不再是党派问题。
24:55
but you bring along people
from the other side together,
from the other side together,
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而是，你把不同立场的人
24:59
backed by science, backed by these kinds
of investment opportunities,
of investment opportunities,
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把他们团结拉回来在一起，
到了那一天你就赢了——
这会支持我再邀请你回来的理由，
这会支持我再邀请你回来的理由，
25:03
backed my reason that you win the day --
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25:05
boy, that's really exciting.
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伙计，这真的令人兴奋。
25:07
Thank you so much.
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1168
非常感谢你，
25:08
AG: Thank you so much
for bringing me back to TED.
for bringing me back to TED.
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阿尔•戈尔：感谢。
25:11
Thank you!
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（鼓掌）
25:12
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Al Gore - Climate advocateNobel Laureate Al Gore focused the world’s attention on the global climate crisis. Now he’s showing us how we’re moving towards real solutions.
Why you should listen
Former Vice President Al Gore is co-founder and chairman of Generation Investment Management. While he’s is a senior partner at Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers, and a member of Apple, Inc.’s board of directors, Gore spends the majority of his time as chair of The Climate Reality Project, a nonprofit devoted to solving the climate crisis.
He is the author of the bestsellers Earth in the Balance, An Inconvenient Truth, The Assault on Reason, Our Choice: A Plan to Solve the Climate Crisis, and most recently, The Future: Six Drivers of Global Change. He is the subject of the Oscar-winning documentary An Inconvenient Truth and is the co-recipient, with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, of the Nobel Peace Prize for 2007 for “informing the world of the dangers posed by climate change.”
Gore was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives in 1976, 1978, 1980 and 1982 and the U.S. Senate in 1984 and 1990. He was inaugurated as the 45th Vice President of the United States on January 20, 1993, and served eight years.
Al Gore | Speaker | TED.com