Chris Urmson: How a driverless car sees the road
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invented the automobile.
Karl Benz menciptakan mobil.
for the first public test drive,
untuk uji coba umum pertama kali,
crashed into a wall.
ia menabrak dinding.
reliable part of the car, the driver.
tak diandalkan dari mobil, pengemudi.
we've added air bags,
dan kantong udara,
started trying to make the car smarter
mulai mencoba membuat mobil lebih pintar
yaitu pengemudinya.
a little bit about the difference
sedikit mengenai perbedaan
with driver assistance systems
dengan sistem asistensi pengemudi
self-driving cars
mampu mengemudi sendiri
a little bit about our car
sedikit tentang mobil kami
and how it reacts and what it does,
bereaksi dan apa yang dilakukannya,
a little bit about the problem.
tentang masalahnya.
on the world's roads every year.
setiap tahun di dunia ini.
are killed each year.
tewas setiap tahun.
falling out of the sky every working day.
jatuh dari langit setiap hari kerja.
mengemudikan mobil.
other than drive.
selain mengemudi.
increased by 38 percent.
meningkat 38 persen.
than it was not very long ago.
dalam waktu yang singkat.
in America, which is about 50 minutes,
di Amerika, yaitu sekitar 50 menit,
workers we have,
pekerja yang kita miliki,
about six billion minutes
sekitar enam milyar menit
so let's put it in perspective.
mari kita masukan ke dalam perspektif.
life expectancy of a person,
harapan hidup manusia,
who don't have the privilege
tidak memiliki hak istimewa
drive to work in the morning,
berkendara untuk bekerja di pagi hari,
of piecing together bits of public transit
naik turun angkutan umum
teman-teman dan keluarga.
that you and I have to get around.
yang kalian dan saya dapatkan.
these driver assistance systems
sistem asistensi pengemudi ini
and incrementally improve them,
bertahap meningkatkan kemampuannya,
into self-driving cars.
menjadi mobil self-driving.
that's like me saying
apa yang saya maksud
one day I'll be able to fly.
suatu hari saya akan bisa terbang.
something a little different.
sesuatu yang sedikit berbeda.
about three different ways
tiga cara yang berbeda
than driver assistance systems.
dari sistem asistensi pengemudi.
with some of our own experience.
beberapa pengalaman kami sendiri.
of a self-driving car
mobil self-driving
menggunakannya.
they were 100 Googlers,
mereka adalah 100 Googler,
them to use it in their daily lives.
kami izinkan untuk menggunakannya.
this one had a big asterisk with it:
mobil ini bertanda bintang besar:
but it could still fail.
tetapi masih ada kemungkinan gagal.
we let them use it,
dan menggunakannya,
was something awesome,
ini hal yang mengagumkan,
to bring a product into the world.
membawa produk ke dunia.
who came in and told us on the first day,
Porsche yang datang dan berkata,
What are we thinking?"
Apa yang kalian pikirkan?"
"Not only should I have it,
"Bukan saja saya harus memilikinya,
because people are terrible drivers."
karena mereka pengemudi yang buruk."
the people inside the car were doing,
yang orang-orang lakukan di dalam mobil,
and realizes the battery is low,
dan menyadari bahwa baterainya lemah,
and digs around in his backpack,
mobil dan mencari-cari di dalam ranselnya,
the charging cable for his phone,
untuk mengisi telepon,
puts it on the phone.
menyambungkan di telepon.
65 miles per hour down the freeway.
di jalan bebas hambatan.
it's kind of obvious, right?
kami berkata, cukup jelas, kan?
the driver is going to get.
incrementally smarter,
cerdas secara bertahap,
the wins we really need.
apa yang kita butuhkan.
a little technical for a moment here.
yang sedikit teknis sejenak di sini.
and along the bottom
dan di bagian bawah ini
apply the brakes when it shouldn't.
menge-rem ketika seharusnya tidak.
and the car starts stopping randomly,
dan mobil mulai berhenti secara acak,
membeli mobil itu.
the car is going to apply the brakes
sering mobil akan menge-rem
to help you avoid an accident.
untuk membantu menghindari kecelakaan.
the bottom left corner here,
sudut kiri bawah,
it doesn't do anything goofy,
dan tidak melakukan hal konyol,
out of an accident.
mencegah kecelakaan.
a driver assistance system into a car,
sistem asistensi pengemudi,
mengurangi tabrakan,
of technology on there,
teknologi di sana,
to have some operating properties,
beberapa cara pengoperasian,
all of the accidents,
semua kecelakaan,
along the curve here,
di sepanjang kurva ini,
that the human driver misses,
dari kecelakaan yang pengemudi lewatkan,
by a factor of two.
sebanyak dua faktor.
dying every year in America.
yang meninggal setiap tahun di Amerika.
that looks like this.
seperti ini.
more sensors in the vehicle,
lebih banyak sensor dalam mobil,
operating point up here
titik operasi di sini
gets into a crash.
mengalami kecelakaan.
namun frekuensi amat rendah.
and we could argue
dan berdebat
I could say something like "80-20 rule,"
dan saya bilang kira-kira "80-20,"
to that new curve.
menuju ke kurva baru itu.
from a different direction for a moment.
dari arah yang berbeda.
the technology has to do the right thing.
teknologi harus melakukan hal yang benar.
is a driver assistance system.
sistem asistensi pengemudi.
to traffic accidents
kecelakaan lalu lintas
di Amerika.
is probably making decisions
mungkin membuat keputusan
between these two,
antara keduanya,
I'm never actually going to get there.
saya tidak akan menyamainya.
the system can handle uncertainty.
dapat menangani ketidakpastian.
stepping into the road, might not be.
melangkah ke jalan, mungkin tidak.
nor can any of our algorithms,
tidak dapat memperkirakannya,
a driver assistance system,
sistem asistensi pengemudi,
because again,
karena lagi-lagi,
that's completely unacceptable.
hal ini benar-benar tidak dapat diterima.
can look at that pedestrian and say,
melihat pejalan kaki itu dan berkata,
and then react appropriately after that.
memberikan reaksi yang tepat.
a driver assistance system can ever be.
daripada sistem asistensi pengemudi.
the differences between the two.
perbedaan antara keduanya.
how the car sees the world.
tentang bagaimana mobil melihat dunia.
where it is in the world,
di mana posisinya di dunia,
and aligning the two,
dan menyelaraskan keduanya,
what it sees in the moment.
apa yang dilihatnya pada saat itu.
are other vehicles on the road,
adalah kendaraan lain di jalan,
over there is a cyclist,
adalah pengendara sepeda,
if you look really closely,
jika kalian lihat dengan teliti,
is in the moment,
berada pada saat ini,
we have to predict what's going to happen.
harus memprediksi apa yang akan terjadi.
is about to make a left lane change
berpindah ke jalur kiri
what everybody's thinking,
apa yang semua orang pikirkan,
how the car should respond in the moment,
bagaimana mobil harus merespon,
quickly it should slow down or speed up.
kita memperlambat atau mempercepat.
just following a path:
mengikuti satu jalur:
pressing the brake or gas.
menekan rem atau gas.
at the end of the day.
yang dilakukan.
and the other boxes on the road,
dan kotak-kotak lain di jalan,
and roughly where the other vehicles are.
dan kira-kira di mana kendaraan lain.
understanding of the world.
geometris mengenai dunia.
on neighborhood and city streets,
di lingkungan dan jalanan kota,
new level of difficulty.
of us, cars crossing in front of us,
mobil melintas di depan kami,
problem by comparison.
that problem solved,
to deal with construction.
forcing it to drive to the right,
untuk ke arah kanan,
in isolation, of course.
konstruksi saja.
through that construction zone as well.
yang bergerak melalui zona konstruksi.
breaking the rules, the police are there
melanggar, ada polisi disana
that flashing light on the top of the car
lampu berkedip di atas mobil
it's actually a police officer.
tetapi mobil polisi.
on the side here,
kotak oranye di sini,
differently as well.
dengan berbeda juga.
other people have expectations:
orang lain berharap:
mengangkat tangan,
to yield to them and make room for them
dan memberikan ruang bagi mereka
stood in the road,
berdiri di jalan,
that this means stop,
bahwa ini berarti berhenti,
we should continue.
untuk jalan, kita harus terus.
is by sharing data between the vehicles.
dengan membagi data antara kendaraan.
sees a construction zone,
melihat zona konstruksi,
so it can be in the correct lane
dapat memilih jalur yang benar
deeper understanding of this.
yang lebih dalam.
that the cars have seen over time,
dari mobil dari waktu ke waktu,
of pedestrians, cyclists,
pengendara sepeda,
what other vehicles should look like
bentuk kendaraan seharusnya
we could take from that a model
menciptakan model dari data tersebut
to move through the world.
mereka untuk bergerak.
crossing in front of us.
menyeberang di depan kami.
and we anticipate
kami antisipasi
and around the car to the right.
menyelip mengitari mobil ke kanan.
coming down the road
dari arah berlawanan
to drive down the shape of the road.
berkendara mengikuti jalan.
going to make a U-turn in front of us,
berputar balik di depan kami,
and respond safely.
dan bereaksi dengan baik.
for things that we've seen,
baik-baik saja,
lots of things that you haven't
yang belum pernah kalian
through Mountain View,
Mountain View,
(Laughter)
(Tertawa)
in the DMV handbook
pegangan DMV tidak ada
to encounter that,
dengan aman.
with just ducks.
The car reacts to that.
di depan kami. Mobil kami bereaksi.
anywhere other than Mountain View.
ditemukan di manapun selain Mountain View.
to deal with drivers,
dengan para pengemudi,
jumps out of this truck at us.
keluar dari truk ini ke arah kami.
with the green box decides
mobil dengan kotak hijau ini memutuskan
at the last possible moment.
pada saat-saat terakhir.
the car to our left decides
mobil di kiri kami
blow through a red light
menerobos lampu merah
blowing through that light as well.
menerobos lampu merah.
the vehicle responds safely.
mobil merespon dengan baik.
who do I don't know what
tidak tahu harus
pulling out between two self-driving cars.
orang diantara dua mobil self-driving ini.
"Apa yang kau pikirkan?"
with a lot of stuff there,
sangat banyak hal pada kalian,
down pretty quickly.
salah satunya sekilas.
with the cyclist again,
dengan pengendara sepeda lagi,
we can't actually see the cyclist yet,
kita tidak bisa melihatnya,
blue box up there,
kecil di atas itu,
really easy to understand,
to turn that laser data and look at it,
mengubah data laser dan menelitinya,
at laser data, you can see
kalian dapat melihat
is that cyclist.
pengendara sepeda itu.
has turned yellow already,
berubah kuning,
in the imagery.
to proceed through the intersection.
terus menerobos persimpangan.
his is solidly red,
lampunya merah,
is going to come all the way across.
sepeda ini akan melintasi jalan.
were not paying as much attention.
tidak terlalu memperhatikan.
and fortunately for everyone,
dan untungnya bagi semua orang,
menghindar,
some pretty exciting progress,
kemajuan yang cukup menarik,
to come to market.
in our simulators every single day,
di simulator kami setiap hari,
that our vehicles have.
yang kendaraan kami miliki.
this technology on the road,
ini di jalan,
is to go through the self-driving
melalui self-driving
di jalanan Amerika.
it's a really complicated problem,
ini adalah masalah yang sangat rumit,
in four and a half years,
itu berarti dalam empat setengah tahun,
to get his driver's license.
to making sure that doesn't happen.
memastikan hal itu tidak terjadi.
I've got a question for you.
saya meiliki pertanyaan.
is pretty mind-boggling.
pemikiran cukup mencengangkan.
driver-assisted and fully driverless --
dan sepenuhnya tanpa pengemudi -
going on out there right now.
terjadi di luar sana sekarang.
for example, Tesla,
misalnya, Tesla,
sistem asistensi pengemudi.
that's kind of going to be a dead end
akan segera berakhir karena anda
that route and get to fully driverless
mencapai sistem tanpa pengemudi sepenuhnya
is going to say, "This feels safe,"
akan mengatakan, "Ini rasanya aman,"
and something ugly will happen.
yang buruk terjadi.
and it's not to say
ini tidak berarti
aren't going to be incredibly valuable.
tidak akan menjadi sangat berharga.
in the interim,
to help someone like Steve get around,
dan membantu seseorang seperti Steve,
to change our cities
untuk mengubah kota kita
these urban craters we call parking lots,
di perkotaan,
with huge interest.
perkembangan anda.
CU: Thank you. (Applause)
CU: Terima kasih. (Tepuk tangan)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Chris Urmson - RoboticistChris Umson is the Director of Self-Driving Cars at Google[x].
Why you should listen
Since 2009, Chris Urmson has headed up Google’s self-driving car program. So far, the team’s vehicles have driven over three quarters of a million miles. While early models included a driverless Prius that TEDsters got to test- ... um, -not-drive in 2011, more and more the team is building vehicles from the ground up, custom-made to go driverless.
Prior to joining Google, Umson was on the faculty of the Robotics Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, where his research focused on motion planning and perception for robotic vehicles. During his time at Carnegie Mellon, he served as Director of Technology for the team that won the 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge.
Chris Urmson | Speaker | TED.com