TED2015
Chris Urmson: How a driverless car sees the road
Kris Urmson (Chris Urmson): Kako samoupravljajući automobil vidi svet
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Statistički gledano, najmanje pouzdan deo automobila je... vozač. Kris Urmson vodi Guglov projekat samoupravljajućih automobila, jedan od nekoliko pokušaja da se ljudi udalje sa sedišta vozača. On govori o tome gde se projekat sada nalazi i predstavlja fascinantne snimke koji prikazuju kako automobil vidi put i samostalno donosi odluke kako dalje da postupa.
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So in 1885, Karl Benz
invented the automobile.
invented the automobile.
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Godine 1885. Karl Benc
izumeo je automobil.
izumeo je automobil.
00:16
Later that year, he took it out
for the first public test drive,
for the first public test drive,
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Kasnije, u toku godine,
izveo ga je na prvu javnu test vožnju
izveo ga je na prvu javnu test vožnju
00:20
and -- true story --
crashed into a wall.
crashed into a wall.
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i, ovo se zaista dogodilo,
udario ga u zid.
udario ga u zid.
00:24
For the last 130 years,
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U poslednjih 130 godina
00:26
we've been working around that least
reliable part of the car, the driver.
reliable part of the car, the driver.
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radili smo na tom, najmanje pouzdanom,
delu automobila - vozaču.
delu automobila - vozaču.
00:30
We've made the car stronger.
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Ojačali smo sam automobil.
00:32
We've added seat belts,
we've added air bags,
we've added air bags,
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Dodali smo pojaseve za sedišta,
vazdušne jastuke,
vazdušne jastuke,
00:34
and in the last decade, we've actually
started trying to make the car smarter
started trying to make the car smarter
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i, u poslednjoj deceniji,
počeli smo čak i da činimo auto pametnijim
počeli smo čak i da činimo auto pametnijim
00:38
to fix that bug, the driver.
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kako bismo ispravili tu grešku - vozača.
00:41
Now, today I'm going to talk to you
a little bit about the difference
a little bit about the difference
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Danas ću govoriti malo o razlici
00:44
between patching around the problem
with driver assistance systems
with driver assistance systems
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između rešavanja problema
sistema asistencije vozaču
sistema asistencije vozaču
00:48
and actually having fully
self-driving cars
self-driving cars
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i zapravo, potpuno
samoupravljajućih automobila
samoupravljajućih automobila
00:51
and what they can do for the world.
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i šta oni mogu da učine za svet.
00:53
I'm also going to talk to you
a little bit about our car
a little bit about our car
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Takođe ću govoriti ponešto
i o našem automobilu
i o našem automobilu
00:56
and allow you to see how it sees the world
and how it reacts and what it does,
and how it reacts and what it does,
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i prikazati vam kako on vidi svet,
kako reaguje i šta radi,
kako reaguje i šta radi,
01:00
but first I'm going to talk
a little bit about the problem.
a little bit about the problem.
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ali prvo moram da kažem
nešto i o jednom problemu.
nešto i o jednom problemu.
01:03
And it's a big problem:
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A problem je velik:
01:05
1.2 million people are killed
on the world's roads every year.
on the world's roads every year.
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svake godine, na putevima širom sveta,
1,2 miliona ljudi pogine.
1,2 miliona ljudi pogine.
01:08
In America alone, 33,000 people
are killed each year.
are killed each year.
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Samo u Americi svake godine
pogine 33 000 ljudi.
pogine 33 000 ljudi.
01:12
To put that in perspective,
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Stavimo to u ovakvu perspektivu:
01:14
that's the same as a 737
falling out of the sky every working day.
falling out of the sky every working day.
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to je kao da se svakog radnog dana
737 sruši iz vazduha.
737 sruši iz vazduha.
01:19
It's kind of unbelievable.
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To je neverovatno.
01:21
Cars are sold to us like this,
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Automobili nam se
prodaju na ovakav način
prodaju na ovakav način
01:23
but really, this is what driving's like.
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ali, zapravo,
ovo predstavlja vožnju, zar ne?
ovo predstavlja vožnju, zar ne?
01:26
Right? It's not sunny, it's rainy,
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Nema sunca nego kiše
01:28
and you want to do anything
other than drive.
other than drive.
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i radije biste radili
bilo šta drugo, osim vožnje.
bilo šta drugo, osim vožnje.
01:31
And the reason why is this:
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A razlog tome je sledeći:
01:32
Traffic is getting worse.
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saobraćaj postaje sve gori.
01:34
In America, between 1990 and 2010,
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U Americi, u periodu
između 1990. i 2010,
između 1990. i 2010,
01:38
the vehicle miles traveled
increased by 38 percent.
increased by 38 percent.
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milje koje su vozila prelazila
se uvećao za 38%.
01:42
We grew by six percent of roads,
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Procenat naših puteva se uvećao za 6%.
01:44
so it's not in your brains.
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To nije samo u našim glavama,
01:46
Traffic really is substantially worse
than it was not very long ago.
than it was not very long ago.
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saobraćaj se zaista znatno
pogoršao u skorije vreme.
pogoršao u skorije vreme.
01:50
And all of this has a very human cost.
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I sve to ima veliku cenu po čoveka.
01:53
So if you take the average commute time
in America, which is about 50 minutes,
in America, which is about 50 minutes,
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Ako uzmete prosečno vreme transporta,
u Americi, koje iznosi oko 50 minuta
u Americi, koje iznosi oko 50 minuta
01:57
you multiply that by the 120 million
workers we have,
workers we have,
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i pomnožite ga sa 120 miliona
radnika koje imamo,
radnika koje imamo,
02:01
that turns out to be
about six billion minutes
about six billion minutes
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dobijete negde oko šest milijardi minuta
02:03
wasted in commuting every day.
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protraćenih tokom transporta svakog dana.
02:05
Now, that's a big number,
so let's put it in perspective.
so let's put it in perspective.
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To je velika cifra pa sagledajmo
to na sledeći način:
to na sledeći način:
02:08
You take that six billion minutes
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uzmite tih šest milijardi minuta
02:09
and you divide it by the average
life expectancy of a person,
life expectancy of a person,
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i podelite ih sa prosečnim
životnim vekom jedne osobe
životnim vekom jedne osobe
02:13
that turns out to be 162 lifetimes
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i dobićete 162 života
02:16
spent every day, wasted,
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uzaludno utrošenih svakog dana,
02:19
just getting from A to B.
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prelazeći samo od tačke A do B.
02:21
It's unbelievable.
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To je neverovatno.
02:23
And then, there are those of us
who don't have the privilege
who don't have the privilege
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Zatim, imamo i one
koji nemaju tu privilegiju
koji nemaju tu privilegiju
02:26
of sitting in traffic.
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da sede u saobraćaju.
02:28
So this is Steve.
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Ovo je Stiv.
02:29
He's an incredibly capable guy,
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On je neverovatno sposoban muškarac
02:31
but he just happens to be blind,
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ali je, pri tom, i slep.
02:33
and that means instead of a 30-minute
drive to work in the morning,
drive to work in the morning,
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A to znači da umesto
tridesetominutne jutarnje vožnje do posla,
tridesetominutne jutarnje vožnje do posla,
02:37
it's a two-hour ordeal
of piecing together bits of public transit
of piecing together bits of public transit
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to je iskušenje od dva sata
spajajući delove javnog prevoza
spajajući delove javnog prevoza
02:41
or asking friends and family for a ride.
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ili moljakanje prijatelja
i porodice za prevoz.
i porodice za prevoz.
02:43
He doesn't have that same freedom
that you and I have to get around.
that you and I have to get around.
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On nema tu istu slobodu kretanja
koju vi i ja imamo.
koju vi i ja imamo.
02:47
We should do something about that.
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Trebalo bi da uradimo nešto
po tom pitanju.
po tom pitanju.
02:49
Now, conventional wisdom would say
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Konvencionalno razmišljanje bi bilo
02:51
that we'll just take
these driver assistance systems
these driver assistance systems
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da uzmemo te
sisteme asistencije vozača,
sisteme asistencije vozača,
02:54
and we'll kind of push them
and incrementally improve them,
and incrementally improve them,
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da ih guramo, postepeno unapređujemo
i da će se oni vremenom
i da će se oni vremenom
02:57
and over time, they'll turn
into self-driving cars.
into self-driving cars.
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pretvoriti u samoupravljajuće automobile.
03:00
Well, I'm here to tell you
that's like me saying
that's like me saying
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Međutim, to je kao
kada bih vam ja sada rekao da
kada bih vam ja sada rekao da
03:02
that if I work really hard at jumping,
one day I'll be able to fly.
one day I'll be able to fly.
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ako bih se mnogo trudio da skačem,
da bih jednog dana mogao i da poletim.
da bih jednog dana mogao i da poletim.
03:06
We actually need to do
something a little different.
something a little different.
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Morali bismo ipak da
uradimo nešto drugačije.
uradimo nešto drugačije.
03:09
And so I'm going to talk to you
about three different ways
about three different ways
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Zato ću vam pričati o tri glavne razlike
03:12
that self-driving systems are different
than driver assistance systems.
than driver assistance systems.
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između samoupravljajućih automobila
i sistema asistencije vozaču.
i sistema asistencije vozaču.
03:15
And I'm going to start
with some of our own experience.
with some of our own experience.
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I počeću sa nekim od naših iskustava.
03:18
So back in 2013,
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Godine 2013.
03:20
we had the first test
of a self-driving car
of a self-driving car
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imali smo prvi test
samoupravljajućih automobila
samoupravljajućih automobila
03:23
where we let regular people use it.
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i dozvolili običnim ljudima da ga koriste.
03:25
Well, almost regular --
they were 100 Googlers,
they were 100 Googlers,
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Dobro, delimično običnim -
to je bilo 100 Guglovih radnika
to je bilo 100 Guglovih radnika
03:27
but they weren't working on the project.
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međutim, oni nisu radili na projektu.
03:29
And we gave them the car and we allowed
them to use it in their daily lives.
them to use it in their daily lives.
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Dali smo im taj automobil i dozvolili im
da ga koriste u svakodnevnom životu.
da ga koriste u svakodnevnom životu.
03:33
But unlike a real self-driving car,
this one had a big asterisk with it:
this one had a big asterisk with it:
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U odnosu na druge
samoupravljajuće automobile
samoupravljajuće automobile
ovaj je imao jednu veliku začkoljicu:
03:36
They had to pay attention,
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morali su da vode računa
03:38
because this was an experimental vehicle.
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jer je ovo bilo eksperimentalno vozilo.
03:40
We tested it a lot,
but it could still fail.
but it could still fail.
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Mi smo ga dosta testirali,
ali je i dalje moglo da se pokvari.
ali je i dalje moglo da se pokvari.
03:44
And so we gave them two hours of training,
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Dva sata smo ih obučavali,
03:46
we put them in the car,
we let them use it,
we let them use it,
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stavili smo ih u auto,
dali im da ga koriste,
dali im da ga koriste,
03:48
and what we heard back
was something awesome,
was something awesome,
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i šta smo naknadno čuli
je bilo fenomenalno
je bilo fenomenalno
03:50
as someone trying
to bring a product into the world.
to bring a product into the world.
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za nekoga ko pokušava
da uvede proizvod u svet.
da uvede proizvod u svet.
03:53
Every one of them told us they loved it.
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Svi ponaosob su rekli da im se svideo.
03:55
In fact, we had a Porsche driver
who came in and told us on the first day,
who came in and told us on the first day,
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Zapravo, imali smo jednog vozača Poršea
koji nam je prvog dana rekao:
koji nam je prvog dana rekao:
03:58
"This is completely stupid.
What are we thinking?"
What are we thinking?"
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"Ovo je potpuno glupo.
O čemu uopšte razmišljamo?"
O čemu uopšte razmišljamo?"
04:01
But at the end of it, he said,
"Not only should I have it,
"Not only should I have it,
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Ali je, na kraju, rekao:
"Ne samo da je meni potreban,
"Ne samo da je meni potreban,
04:04
everyone else should have it,
because people are terrible drivers."
because people are terrible drivers."
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potreban je svima,
jer su ljudi očajni vozači."
jer su ljudi očajni vozači."
04:09
So this was music to our ears,
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To je bila muzika za naše uši.
04:10
but then we started to look at what
the people inside the car were doing,
the people inside the car were doing,
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A onda smo počeli da gledamo
šta ljudi unutar automobila rade
šta ljudi unutar automobila rade
04:14
and this was eye-opening.
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i to nam je otvorilo oči.
04:16
Now, my favorite story is this gentleman
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A meni je omiljena priča jednog gospodina
04:18
who looks down at his phone
and realizes the battery is low,
and realizes the battery is low,
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koji gleda u svoj telefon
i shvati da mu se baterija istrošila.
i shvati da mu se baterija istrošila.
04:22
so he turns around like this in the car
and digs around in his backpack,
and digs around in his backpack,
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On se ovako okrenuo, u autu,
čeprkao po svom rancu,
čeprkao po svom rancu,
04:27
pulls out his laptop,
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izvukao svoj laptop,
04:29
puts it on the seat,
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stavio ga na sedište,
04:30
goes in the back again,
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opet se okrenuo nazad,
04:32
digs around, pulls out
the charging cable for his phone,
the charging cable for his phone,
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opet čeprkao i izvukao kabl
za punjenje za svoj telefon,
za punjenje za svoj telefon,
04:35
futzes around, puts it into the laptop,
puts it on the phone.
puts it on the phone.
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vrpoljio se, uključio kabl u laptop
i u telefon.
i u telefon.
04:39
Sure enough, the phone is charging.
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Zasigurno, telefon se puni
04:41
All the time he's been doing
65 miles per hour down the freeway.
65 miles per hour down the freeway.
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a svo to vreme on se vozio
brzinom od 100 km na sat, po autoputu.
brzinom od 100 km na sat, po autoputu.
04:45
Right? Unbelievable.
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Zaista neverovatno.
04:47
So we thought about this and we said,
it's kind of obvious, right?
it's kind of obvious, right?
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Razmišljali smo o ovome
i rekli smo da je to nekako očigledno.
i rekli smo da je to nekako očigledno.
04:50
The better the technology gets,
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Što više tehnologija napreduje
04:53
the less reliable
the driver is going to get.
the driver is going to get.
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vozač postaje sve manje pouzdan.
04:55
So by just making the cars
incrementally smarter,
incrementally smarter,
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Samim tim što
automobil postepeno postaje pametan
automobil postepeno postaje pametan
04:57
we're probably not going to see
the wins we really need.
the wins we really need.
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verovatno više nećemo videti
pobede koje smo nekada želeli.
pobede koje smo nekada želeli.
05:00
Let me talk about something
a little technical for a moment here.
a little technical for a moment here.
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Dozvolite mi da vam se obratim
tehničkim jezikom, na trenutak.
tehničkim jezikom, na trenutak.
05:04
So we're looking at this graph,
and along the bottom
and along the bottom
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Gledajući ovaj grafik,
na dnu primećujemo
na dnu primećujemo
05:06
is how often does the car
apply the brakes when it shouldn't.
apply the brakes when it shouldn't.
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koliko često automobil
primenjuje kočnice kada ne bi trebalo.
primenjuje kočnice kada ne bi trebalo.
05:09
You can ignore most of that axis,
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Ignorišite veći deo ove ose
05:11
because if you're driving around town,
and the car starts stopping randomly,
and the car starts stopping randomly,
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jer ako se vozite gradom
i automobil iz nekog razloga stane,
i automobil iz nekog razloga stane,
05:15
you're never going to buy that car.
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vi nikada nećete kupiti taj auto.
05:17
And the vertical axis is how often
the car is going to apply the brakes
the car is going to apply the brakes
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Vertikalna osa prikazuje
koliko često će auto primeniti kočnice,
koliko često će auto primeniti kočnice,
05:20
when it's supposed to
to help you avoid an accident.
to help you avoid an accident.
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kada je to potrebno,
da bi vam pomogao da izbegnete nesreću.
da bi vam pomogao da izbegnete nesreću.
05:23
Now, if we look at
the bottom left corner here,
the bottom left corner here,
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Ako sada pogledamo
u ovaj donji levi ugao
u ovaj donji levi ugao
05:25
this is your classic car.
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- to je vaš klasičan automobil.
05:27
It doesn't apply the brakes for you,
it doesn't do anything goofy,
it doesn't do anything goofy,
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On ne primenjuje kočnice umesto vas,
ne radi ništa šašavo
ne radi ništa šašavo
05:30
but it also doesn't get you
out of an accident.
out of an accident.
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ali isto tako vas i ne čuva od nesreće.
05:33
Now, if we want to bring
a driver assistance system into a car,
a driver assistance system into a car,
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Ako sada želimo u auto da uvedemo
sistem asistencije vozaču
sistem asistencije vozaču
05:36
say with collision mitigation braking,
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recimo za kočenje
za ublažavanje sudara
za ublažavanje sudara
05:38
we're going to put some package
of technology on there,
of technology on there,
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ubacićemo neki paket tehnologije tu
05:40
and that's this curve, and it's going
to have some operating properties,
to have some operating properties,
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i to je ova kriva ovde i sistem će imati
neka upravljačka svojstva
neka upravljačka svojstva
05:44
but it's never going to avoid
all of the accidents,
all of the accidents,
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ali nikada neće izbeći sve nesreće
05:46
because it doesn't have that capability.
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jer nema takve sposobnosti.
05:48
But we'll pick some place
along the curve here,
along the curve here,
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Ali izabraćemo neku poziciju na krivi ovde
05:51
and maybe it avoids half of accidents
that the human driver misses,
that the human driver misses,
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pa možda izbegava polovinu nesreća
koja ljudima vozačima promakne
koja ljudima vozačima promakne
05:54
and that's amazing, right?
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neverovatno, zar ne?
05:55
We just reduced accidents on our roads
by a factor of two.
by a factor of two.
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Upravo smo duplo smanjili nesreće
na našim putevima.
na našim putevima.
05:58
There are now 17,000 less people
dying every year in America.
dying every year in America.
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Sada 17 000 ljudi manje
pogine u Americi svake godine.
pogine u Americi svake godine.
06:02
But if we want a self-driving car,
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Ali ako želimo
samoupravljajući automobil,
samoupravljajući automobil,
06:04
we need a technology curve
that looks like this.
that looks like this.
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potrebna nam je kriva
koja izgleda ovako.
koja izgleda ovako.
06:06
We're going to have to put
more sensors in the vehicle,
more sensors in the vehicle,
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Morali bismo da postavimo
više senzora u vozilo
više senzora u vozilo
06:09
and we'll pick some
operating point up here
operating point up here
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i izabraćemo jednu tačku korišćenja ovde
06:11
where it basically never
gets into a crash.
gets into a crash.
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gde, zapravo, nikada ne dolazi do sudara.
06:13
They'll happen, but very low frequency.
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Dešavaće se,
ali sa vrlo malom učestalošću.
ali sa vrlo malom učestalošću.
06:15
Now you and I could look at this
and we could argue
and we could argue
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Mogli bismo ovo da gledamo
i da polemišemo o tome
i da polemišemo o tome
06:18
about whether it's incremental, and
I could say something like "80-20 rule,"
I could say something like "80-20 rule,"
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da li je ovo postepeno
i ja bih rekao da je to "pravilo 80-20"
i ja bih rekao da je to "pravilo 80-20"
06:21
and it's really hard to move up
to that new curve.
to that new curve.
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i da je veoma teško
da se podigne na tu novu krivu.
da se podigne na tu novu krivu.
06:24
But let's look at it
from a different direction for a moment.
from a different direction for a moment.
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Ali hajde na trenutak
da to sagledamo iz drugačijeg ugla.
da to sagledamo iz drugačijeg ugla.
06:27
So let's look at how often
the technology has to do the right thing.
the technology has to do the right thing.
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Hajde da vidimo koliko često
tehnologija postupi na ispravan način.
tehnologija postupi na ispravan način.
06:30
And so this green dot up here
is a driver assistance system.
is a driver assistance system.
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Ova zelena tačka ovde predstavlja
sistem asistencije vozaču.
sistem asistencije vozaču.
06:34
It turns out that human drivers
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Ispostavilo se da ljudi vozači
06:36
make mistakes that lead
to traffic accidents
to traffic accidents
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prave greške koje dovode
do saobraćajnih nesreća
do saobraćajnih nesreća
06:39
about once every 100,000 miles in America.
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jednom u 161 000 km, u Americi.
06:42
In contrast, a self-driving system
is probably making decisions
is probably making decisions
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Nasuprot tome, sistem asistencije vozaču
verovatno donosi odluke
verovatno donosi odluke
06:45
about 10 times per second,
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oko 10 puta u sekundi,
06:49
so order of magnitude,
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a to je red veličine
06:50
that's about 1,000 times per mile.
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oko 1000 puta u toku 1,5 kilometra.
06:53
So if you compare the distance
between these two,
between these two,
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Ako uporedite razdaljinu
između ove dve veličine,
između ove dve veličine,
06:56
it's about 10 to the eighth, right?
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to je oko 10 na osmu, zar ne?
06:58
Eight orders of magnitude.
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Osam puta više.
07:00
That's like comparing how fast I run
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To je kao kada bi poredili
koliko brzo ja trčim
koliko brzo ja trčim
07:03
to the speed of light.
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u odnosu na brzinu svetlosti.
07:05
It doesn't matter how hard I train,
I'm never actually going to get there.
I'm never actually going to get there.
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Nije bitno koliko naporno treniram kada
zapravo, nikada neću moći to da stignem.
zapravo, nikada neću moći to da stignem.
07:09
So there's a pretty big gap there.
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Prema tome, to je vrlo velik procep.
07:11
And then finally, there's how
the system can handle uncertainty.
the system can handle uncertainty.
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I na kraju, naravno, imamo i to
kako sistem podnosi nesigurnosti.
kako sistem podnosi nesigurnosti.
07:15
So this pedestrian here might be
stepping into the road, might not be.
stepping into the road, might not be.
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Ovaj pešak ovde
možda iskorači na put, a možda i ne.
možda iskorači na put, a možda i ne.
07:18
I can't tell,
nor can any of our algorithms,
nor can any of our algorithms,
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Ja ne mogu to da znam,
niti bilo koji naš algoritam
niti bilo koji naš algoritam
07:22
but in the case of
a driver assistance system,
a driver assistance system,
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ali u slučaju sistema asistencije vozaču
07:24
that means it can't take action,
because again,
because again,
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to znači da ne može nešto da preduzme
opet iz razloga što
opet iz razloga što
07:27
if it presses the brakes unexpectedly,
that's completely unacceptable.
that's completely unacceptable.
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ako nenadano pritisne kočnice
to je potpuno neprihvatljivo.
to je potpuno neprihvatljivo.
07:30
Whereas a self-driving system
can look at that pedestrian and say,
can look at that pedestrian and say,
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Dok samoupravljajući sistem
može da prepozna pešaka i kaže
može da prepozna pešaka i kaže
07:33
I don't know what they're about to do,
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"Ne znam šta će da uradi,
07:35
slow down, take a better look,
and then react appropriately after that.
and then react appropriately after that.
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uspori, pogledaj bolje
i nakon toga reaguj adekvatno."
i nakon toga reaguj adekvatno."
07:39
So it can be much safer than
a driver assistance system can ever be.
a driver assistance system can ever be.
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Tako da je mnogo bezbedniji nego što će
sistem asistencije vozaču ikad biti.
sistem asistencije vozaču ikad biti.
07:43
So that's enough about
the differences between the two.
the differences between the two.
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Toliko o razlikama
između ova dva sistema.
između ova dva sistema.
07:45
Let's spend some time talking about
how the car sees the world.
how the car sees the world.
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Hajde da sada razgovaramo o tome
kako automobil vidi svet.
kako automobil vidi svet.
07:49
So this is our vehicle.
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Dakle, ovo je naše vozilo.
07:50
It starts by understanding
where it is in the world,
where it is in the world,
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Kreće tako što prepoznaje
gde se nalazi, na svetu,
gde se nalazi, na svetu,
07:53
by taking a map and its sensor data
and aligning the two,
and aligning the two,
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tako što koristi podatke
sa mape i senzora i upoređuje ih
sa mape i senzora i upoređuje ih
07:55
and then we layer on top of that
what it sees in the moment.
what it sees in the moment.
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i na to dodaje šta vidi
u konkretnom trenutku.
u konkretnom trenutku.
07:58
So here, all the purple boxes you can see
are other vehicles on the road,
are other vehicles on the road,
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Tako da ove ljubičaste kutije koje vidite
predstavljaju druga vozila na putu.
predstavljaju druga vozila na putu.
08:02
and the red thing on the side
over there is a cyclist,
over there is a cyclist,
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Ove crvene stvari, sa strane,
su biciklisti,
su biciklisti,
08:05
and up in the distance,
if you look really closely,
if you look really closely,
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a tamo u daljini, ako bolje pogledate,
08:07
you can see some cones.
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možete videti čunjeve.
08:09
Then we know where the car
is in the moment,
is in the moment,
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Sad, pošto znamo gde se auto nalazi
u datom trenutku
u datom trenutku
08:12
but we have to do better than that:
we have to predict what's going to happen.
we have to predict what's going to happen.
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moramo da uradimo i bolje od toga:
moramo da predvidimo šta će se desiti.
moramo da predvidimo šta će se desiti.
08:15
So here the pickup truck in top right
is about to make a left lane change
is about to make a left lane change
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Ovaj pikap kamion, gore desno,
će da izvrši prestrojavanje u levu traku
će da izvrši prestrojavanje u levu traku
08:19
because the road in front of it is closed,
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zato što je napred put zatvoren
08:21
so it needs to get out of the way.
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pa on mora da se skloni sa puta.
08:23
Knowing that one pickup truck is great,
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Poznajemo taj jedan pikap i to je super
08:25
but we really need to know
what everybody's thinking,
what everybody's thinking,
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ali moramo da znamo
i o čemu svi ostali misle
i o čemu svi ostali misle
08:27
so it becomes quite a complicated problem.
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pa to sad postaje
vrlo komplikovan problem.
vrlo komplikovan problem.
08:30
And then given that, we can figure out
how the car should respond in the moment,
how the car should respond in the moment,
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Ako sad to znamo, možemo da smislimo
kako bi auto trebalo da reaguje u trenutku
kako bi auto trebalo da reaguje u trenutku
koju putanju bi trebalo da sledi, koliko
brzo bi trebalo da uspori ili ubrza.
brzo bi trebalo da uspori ili ubrza.
08:34
so what trajectory it should follow, how
quickly it should slow down or speed up.
quickly it should slow down or speed up.
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08:38
And then that all turns into
just following a path:
just following a path:
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I sve to postaje samo praćenje putanje:
08:41
turning the steering wheel left or right,
pressing the brake or gas.
pressing the brake or gas.
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skretanje levo ili desno,
pritiskanje kočnice ili gasa.
pritiskanje kočnice ili gasa.
08:45
It's really just two numbers
at the end of the day.
at the end of the day.
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Na kraju se sve svodi
na dva broja, zapravo.
na dva broja, zapravo.
08:47
So how hard can it really be?
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Koliko teško to može da bude?
08:50
Back when we started in 2009,
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Kada smo počinjali u 2009,
08:52
this is what our system looked like.
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ovako je izgledao naš sistem.
08:54
So you can see our car in the middle
and the other boxes on the road,
and the other boxes on the road,
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Možete videti naš automobil u sredini
i ostale kocke na putu
i ostale kocke na putu
08:57
driving down the highway.
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kako se voze po autoputu.
08:58
The car needs to understand where it is
and roughly where the other vehicles are.
and roughly where the other vehicles are.
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Auto mora da prepozna gde se nalazi
i gde se otprilike nalaze i ostala vozila.
i gde se otprilike nalaze i ostala vozila.
09:02
It's really a geometric
understanding of the world.
understanding of the world.
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To je zapravo geometrijsko
razumevanje sveta.
razumevanje sveta.
09:05
Once we started driving
on neighborhood and city streets,
on neighborhood and city streets,
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Kada smo počeli da vozimo
po komšiluku i gradskim ulicama,
po komšiluku i gradskim ulicama,
09:08
the problem becomes a whole
new level of difficulty.
new level of difficulty.
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pojavile su se poteškoće
na potpuno novom nivou.
na potpuno novom nivou.
09:10
You see pedestrians crossing in front
of us, cars crossing in front of us,
of us, cars crossing in front of us,
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Vidimo pešake koji prelaze ispred nas,
automobile koji prelaze ispred nas
automobile koji prelaze ispred nas
09:13
going every which way,
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koji idu u svim smerovima,
09:15
the traffic lights, crosswalks.
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semafori, pešački prelazi.
09:17
It's an incredibly complicated
problem by comparison.
problem by comparison.
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To je neverovatno složen
problem u odnosu na prethodni.
problem u odnosu na prethodni.
09:20
And then once you have
that problem solved,
that problem solved,
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Jednom kada je taj problem rešen,
09:22
the vehicle has to be able
to deal with construction.
to deal with construction.
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vozilo mora da se nosi
sa radovima na putu.
sa radovima na putu.
09:24
So here are the cones on the left
forcing it to drive to the right,
forcing it to drive to the right,
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Ovde su čunjevi sa leve strane
koji ga primoravaju da ide na desnu
koji ga primoravaju da ide na desnu
09:27
but not just construction
in isolation, of course.
in isolation, of course.
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ali ne samo sa radovima, naravno.
09:30
It has to deal with other people moving
through that construction zone as well.
through that construction zone as well.
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Mora da se nosi sa ostalim ljudima
koji se kreću oko tih radova, takođe.
koji se kreću oko tih radova, takođe.
09:34
And of course, if anyone's
breaking the rules, the police are there
breaking the rules, the police are there
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I, naravno, ako neko krši pravila,
policija je tu
policija je tu
09:37
and the car has to understand that
that flashing light on the top of the car
that flashing light on the top of the car
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i auto mora da prepozna
rotaciono svetlo na krovu auta
rotaciono svetlo na krovu auta
09:40
means that it's not just a car,
it's actually a police officer.
it's actually a police officer.
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koje znači da to nije običan auto,
nego policijac.
nego policijac.
09:43
Similarly, the orange box
on the side here,
on the side here,
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Slično, ova narandžasta kutija sa strane
09:46
it's a school bus,
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je školski autobus
09:47
and we have to treat that
differently as well.
differently as well.
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i time moramo, takođe,
drugačije da se pozabavimo.
drugačije da se pozabavimo.
09:50
When we're out on the road,
other people have expectations:
other people have expectations:
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Kada se nalazimo na putu,
drugi ljudi imaju očekivanja.
drugi ljudi imaju očekivanja.
09:53
So, when a cyclist puts up their arm,
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Tako da kada biciklista ispruži ruku
09:55
it means they're expecting the car
to yield to them and make room for them
to yield to them and make room for them
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to znači da očekuje od auta
da mu da prednost i napravi mesta za njega
da mu da prednost i napravi mesta za njega
09:58
to make a lane change.
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da bi se prestrojio.
10:01
And when a police officer
stood in the road,
stood in the road,
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I kada se policijski auto nalazi na putu
10:03
our vehicle should understand
that this means stop,
that this means stop,
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naše vozilo mora da prepozna
da to znači da stanemo,
da to znači da stanemo,
10:05
and when they signal to go,
we should continue.
we should continue.
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i kada nam signaliziraiju da krenemo
da mi nastavimo dalje.
da mi nastavimo dalje.
10:09
Now, the way we accomplish this
is by sharing data between the vehicles.
is by sharing data between the vehicles.
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Način na koji ovo postižemo
jeste deljenjem podataka između vozila.
jeste deljenjem podataka između vozila.
10:13
The first, most crude model of this
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Prvi, grub model ovoga
10:14
is when one vehicle
sees a construction zone,
sees a construction zone,
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je kada vozilo vidi radove,
10:17
having another know about it
so it can be in the correct lane
so it can be in the correct lane
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i daje drugom to do znanja
da bi moglo da bude u pravilnoj traci
da bi moglo da bude u pravilnoj traci
10:20
to avoid some of the difficulty.
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kako bi izbeglo poteškoće.
10:21
But we actually have a much
deeper understanding of this.
deeper understanding of this.
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Ovo zapravo mnogo dublje razumemo.
10:24
We could take all of the data
that the cars have seen over time,
that the cars have seen over time,
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Mogli bismo da uzmemo sve podatke
koje auto prima u toku vremena
koje auto prima u toku vremena
10:27
the hundreds of thousands
of pedestrians, cyclists,
of pedestrians, cyclists,
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stotine hiljada pešaka, motociklista,
10:29
and vehicles that have been out there
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1787
i vozila koje se tamo nalaze
10:31
and understand what they look like
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i da prepoznamo kako izgledaju
10:33
and use that to infer
what other vehicles should look like
what other vehicles should look like
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2831
i to upotrebimo da zaključimo
kako bi druga vozila
kako bi druga vozila
10:36
and other pedestrians should look like.
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i drugi pešaci mogli da izgledaju.
10:37
And then, even more importantly,
we could take from that a model
we could take from that a model
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3021
I onda, još važnije,
iz toga bismo mogli da izvučemo model
iz toga bismo mogli da izvučemo model
10:40
of how we expect them
to move through the world.
to move through the world.
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kako očekujemo da se oni ponašaju u svetu.
10:43
So here the yellow box is a pedestrian
crossing in front of us.
crossing in front of us.
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Ovde žuta kocka predstavlja pešaka
koji prelazi ispred nas.
koji prelazi ispred nas.
10:46
Here the blue box is a cyclist
and we anticipate
and we anticipate
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Ovde je plava kocka biciklista
i predviđamo
i predviđamo
10:48
that they're going to nudge out
and around the car to the right.
and around the car to the right.
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da će da se pomeri iza automobila desno.
10:52
Here there's a cyclist
coming down the road
coming down the road
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Ovde nam biciklista ide u susret
10:54
and we know they're going to continue
to drive down the shape of the road.
to drive down the shape of the road.
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i znamo da će nastaviti
da vozi po obliku puta.
da vozi po obliku puta.
10:57
Here somebody makes a right turn,
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Ovde neko skreće desno,
10:59
and in a moment here, somebody's
going to make a U-turn in front of us,
going to make a U-turn in front of us,
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i ubrzo vidimo ovde nekog
ko će da napravi polukružno ispred nas
ko će da napravi polukružno ispred nas
11:02
and we can anticipate that behavior
and respond safely.
and respond safely.
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pa možemo da predvidimo to
i da reagujemo bezbedno.
i da reagujemo bezbedno.
11:05
Now, that's all well and good
for things that we've seen,
for things that we've seen,
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Sad, sve je to dobro
za ove stvari koje smo videli.
za ove stvari koje smo videli.
11:08
but of course, you encounter
lots of things that you haven't
lots of things that you haven't
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Ali, naravno, dešavaće se gomila stvari
koje pre toga niste videli.
11:11
seen in the world before.
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11:12
And so just a couple of months ago,
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1741
Pre nekoliko meseci,
11:14
our vehicles were driving
through Mountain View,
through Mountain View,
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naša vozila su se kretala
kroz Mauntin Vju
kroz Mauntin Vju
11:16
and this is what we encountered.
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i evo sa čim smo se susreli.
11:17
This is a woman in an electric wheelchair
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Ovo je žena u električnim kolicima
11:20
chasing a duck in circles on the road.
(Laughter)
(Laughter)
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koja juri patku u krug, po putu.
(Smeh)
(Smeh)
11:22
Now it turns out, there is nowhere
in the DMV handbook
in the DMV handbook
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Međutim, nigde u uputstvu
o ponašanju u saobraćaju
o ponašanju u saobraćaju
11:25
that tells you how to deal with that,
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ne piše kako to da rešite.
11:28
but our vehicles were able
to encounter that,
to encounter that,
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Ali naša vozila su mogla
to da prepoznaju,
to da prepoznaju,
11:30
slow down, and drive safely.
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uspore i nastave bezbedno.
11:32
Now, we don't have to deal
with just ducks.
with just ducks.
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Nećemo se nositi samo sa patkama.
11:34
Watch this bird fly across in front of us.
The car reacts to that.
The car reacts to that.
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Vidite kako ova ptica izleće ispred nas.
Auto reaguje na to.
11:38
Here we're dealing with a cyclist
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Ovde se suočavamo sa biciklistom
11:39
that you would never expect to see
anywhere other than Mountain View.
anywhere other than Mountain View.
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kojeg ne biste očekivali da vidite
nigde drugde osim u Mauntin Vjuu.
nigde drugde osim u Mauntin Vjuu.
11:43
And of course, we have
to deal with drivers,
to deal with drivers,
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I, naravno, moramo da se suočavamo
11:45
even the very small ones.
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čak i sa veoma malim vozačima.
11:48
Watch to the right as someone
jumps out of this truck at us.
jumps out of this truck at us.
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Pogledajte desno ovde kako neko
iskače iz ovog kamiona ispred nas.
iskače iz ovog kamiona ispred nas.
11:54
And now, watch the left as the car
with the green box decides
with the green box decides
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I ovde sa leve strane, auto
sa zelenom kutijom koji je odlučio
sa zelenom kutijom koji je odlučio
11:57
he needs to make a right turn
at the last possible moment.
at the last possible moment.
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da mora da skrene desno
u poslednjem mogućem trenutku.
u poslednjem mogućem trenutku.
12:00
Here, as we make a lane change,
the car to our left decides
the car to our left decides
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Ovde, dok se prestrojavamo,
auto sa naše leve strane
auto sa naše leve strane
12:03
it wants to as well.
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želi isto to.
12:07
And here, we watch a car
blow through a red light
blow through a red light
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A ovde vidimo auto
koji jurca kroz crveno svetlo
koji jurca kroz crveno svetlo
12:09
and yield to it.
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i propuštamo ga.
12:11
And similarly, here, a cyclist
blowing through that light as well.
blowing through that light as well.
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Slično tome, ovde biciklista
isto jurca kroz crveno svetlo.
isto jurca kroz crveno svetlo.
12:15
And of course,
the vehicle responds safely.
the vehicle responds safely.
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I, naravno, vozilo reaguje bezbedno.
12:18
And of course, we have people
who do I don't know what
who do I don't know what
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Takođe imamo ljude koji rade
ne-znam-ni-ja-šta na putu
ne-znam-ni-ja-šta na putu
12:21
sometimes on the road, like this guy
pulling out between two self-driving cars.
pulling out between two self-driving cars.
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kao ovaj koji se zaustavlja
između dva samoupravljajuće automobila.
između dva samoupravljajuće automobila.
12:24
You have to ask, "What are you thinking?"
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Zapitate se:
"O čemu ti razmišljaš?"
"O čemu ti razmišljaš?"
12:26
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
12:28
Now, I just fire-hosed you
with a lot of stuff there,
with a lot of stuff there,
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Obasuo sam vas sa dosta stvari
12:30
so I'm going to break one of these
down pretty quickly.
down pretty quickly.
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i sada ću samo na brzinu
analizirati jednu od njih.
analizirati jednu od njih.
12:33
So what we're looking at is the scene
with the cyclist again,
with the cyclist again,
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Sada gledamo situaciju,
opet sa biciklistom,
opet sa biciklistom,
12:36
and you might notice in the bottom,
we can't actually see the cyclist yet,
we can't actually see the cyclist yet,
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i na dnu možete da primetite da još uvek
ne možemo da ga vidimo
ne možemo da ga vidimo
12:39
but the car can: it's that little
blue box up there,
blue box up there,
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ali auto može: to je ona
mala plava kocka tamo,
mala plava kocka tamo,
12:42
and that comes from the laser data.
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i to je podatak koji se očitao laserski.
12:44
And that's not actually
really easy to understand,
really easy to understand,
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To nije baš tako lako da se razume
12:46
so what I'm going to do is I'm going
to turn that laser data and look at it,
to turn that laser data and look at it,
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pa ću ih sada uključiti
da vidimo te laserske podatke
da vidimo te laserske podatke
pa ako ste veoma dobri
u gledanju laserskih podataka,
u gledanju laserskih podataka,
12:50
and if you're really good at looking
at laser data, you can see
at laser data, you can see
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možete uočiti ove tačke na bankini
12:53
a few dots on the curve there,
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ovde, a ona plava kocka je taj biciklista.
12:54
right there, and that blue box
is that cyclist.
is that cyclist.
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Pošto je nama sada crveno svetlo,
12:57
Now as our light is red,
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12:58
the cyclist's light
has turned yellow already,
has turned yellow already,
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biciklisti se već upalilo žuto,
13:00
and if you squint, you can see that
in the imagery.
in the imagery.
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i ako škiljite, možete
da vidite to ovde na slici.
da vidite to ovde na slici.
13:03
But the cyclist, we see, is going
to proceed through the intersection.
to proceed through the intersection.
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Ali biciklista, kako vidimo,
će nastaviti pravo na raskrsnici.
će nastaviti pravo na raskrsnici.
13:06
Our light has now turned green,
his is solidly red,
his is solidly red,
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Nama je sada zeleno svetlo,
njegovo je crveno,
njegovo je crveno,
13:08
and we now anticipate that this bike
is going to come all the way across.
is going to come all the way across.
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i mi sada predviđamo
da će taj bajs da pređe preko.
da će taj bajs da pređe preko.
13:13
Unfortunately the other drivers next to us
were not paying as much attention.
were not paying as much attention.
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Nažalost, ostali vozači pored nas
nisu obratili dovoljno pažnje.
nisu obratili dovoljno pažnje.
13:16
They started to pull forward,
and fortunately for everyone,
and fortunately for everyone,
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Počeli su da se pomeraju unapred
i na svu sreću,
i na svu sreću,
13:19
this cyclists reacts, avoids,
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biciklista je reagovao, izbegao,
13:22
and makes it through the intersection.
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i prošao kroz raskrsnicu.
13:25
And off we go.
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I krećemo.
13:26
Now, as you can see, we've made
some pretty exciting progress,
some pretty exciting progress,
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Kao što vidite, napravili smo
prilično uzbudljiv napredak
prilično uzbudljiv napredak
13:29
and at this point we're pretty convinced
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i u ovom trenutku smo prilično ubeđeni
13:31
this technology is going
to come to market.
to come to market.
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da će se ova tehnologija naći na tržištu.
13:33
We do three million miles of testing
in our simulators every single day,
in our simulators every single day,
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U našim simulatorima testiramo
skoro 5 miliona kilometara svakog dana
skoro 5 miliona kilometara svakog dana
13:38
so you can imagine the experience
that our vehicles have.
that our vehicles have.
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pa možete zamisliti kakvo iskustvo
naša vozila imaju.
naša vozila imaju.
13:41
We are looking forward to having
this technology on the road,
this technology on the road,
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Radujemo se što će
ova tehnologija biti na putu,
ova tehnologija biti na putu,
13:43
and we think the right path
is to go through the self-driving
is to go through the self-driving
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i mislimo da su samoupravljajući
automobili pravi put
automobili pravi put
13:46
rather than driver assistance approach
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u odnosu na sistem asistencije vozaču
13:48
because the urgency is so large.
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zato što je pravovremenost veoma značajna.
13:51
In the time I have given this talk today,
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U toku ovog mog današnjeg govora
13:53
34 people have died on America's roads.
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34 ljudi je poginulo
na američkim putevima.
na američkim putevima.
13:56
How soon can we bring it out?
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Koliko brzo možemo izneti ovu tehnologiju?
13:59
Well, it's hard to say because
it's a really complicated problem,
it's a really complicated problem,
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Teško je to reći jer je to
zaista komplikovan problem.
zaista komplikovan problem.
14:02
but these are my two boys.
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Ovo su moja dva dečaka.
14:05
My oldest son is 11, and that means
in four and a half years,
in four and a half years,
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Stariji ima 11 godina a to znači
da će za četiri ipo godine
da će za četiri ipo godine
14:08
he's going to be able
to get his driver's license.
to get his driver's license.
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moći da dobije vozačku dozvolu.
14:11
My team and I are committed
to making sure that doesn't happen.
to making sure that doesn't happen.
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Moj tim i ja smo posvećeni tome
da se to ne desi.
da se to ne desi.
14:14
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
14:16
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smeh) (Aplauz)
14:21
Chris Anderson: Chris,
I've got a question for you.
I've got a question for you.
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Kris Anderson: Kris, imam pitanje za tebe.
14:23
Chris Urmson: Sure.
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Kris Urmson: Svakako.
14:26
CA: So certainly, the mind of your cars
is pretty mind-boggling.
is pretty mind-boggling.
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KA: Zasigurno, svest vaših automobila
je prilično zapanjujuća.
je prilično zapanjujuća.
14:30
On this debate between
driver-assisted and fully driverless --
driver-assisted and fully driverless --
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Na debatu između
asistencije vozaču i potpuno bezvozača -
asistencije vozaču i potpuno bezvozača -
14:34
I mean, there's a real debate
going on out there right now.
going on out there right now.
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Mislim, dešava se prava debata
o tome sada.
o tome sada.
14:37
So some of the companies,
for example, Tesla,
for example, Tesla,
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Pa neke kompanije,
kao što je, na primer, Tesla
kao što je, na primer, Tesla
14:40
are going the driver-assisted route.
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idu putem asistencije vozaču.
14:42
What you're saying is that
that's kind of going to be a dead end
that's kind of going to be a dead end
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Ti govoriš da će to biti ćorsokak
14:48
because you can't just keep improving
that route and get to fully driverless
that route and get to fully driverless
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jer ne može samo unapređivanjem te putanje
da se dođe do potpunog samoupravljanja
14:53
at some point, and then a driver
is going to say, "This feels safe,"
is going to say, "This feels safe,"
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u jednom trenutku i da onda
vozač kaže: "Osećam da je ovo sigurno"
vozač kaže: "Osećam da je ovo sigurno"
14:57
and climb into the back,
and something ugly will happen.
and something ugly will happen.
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i onda se prebaci nazad
i nešto ružno se desi.
i nešto ružno se desi.
14:59
CU: Right. No, that's exactly right,
and it's not to say
and it's not to say
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KU: Tako je. To je potpuno tačno
i ne možemo da kažemo
i ne možemo da kažemo
15:02
that the driver assistance systems
aren't going to be incredibly valuable.
aren't going to be incredibly valuable.
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da sistemi asistencije vozaču
neće biti neverovatno značajni.
neće biti neverovatno značajni.
15:05
They can save a lot of lives
in the interim,
in the interim,
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Mogu da spasu mnogo života
u međuvremenu,
u međuvremenu,
15:08
but to see the transformative opportunity
to help someone like Steve get around,
to help someone like Steve get around,
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ali da imaju priliku da se transformišu
i pomognu ljudima kao što je Stiv
i pomognu ljudima kao što je Stiv
15:11
to really get to the end case in safety,
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da zaista dođu do kraja bezbedno,
15:13
to have the opportunity
to change our cities
to change our cities
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da imaju mogućnost
da promene naše gradove
da promene naše gradove
15:16
and move parking out and get rid of
these urban craters we call parking lots,
these urban craters we call parking lots,
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i da se otarase urbanih kratera
koje zovemo parking mestima,
koje zovemo parking mestima,
15:20
it's the only way to go.
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ovo je jedini put.
15:21
CA: We will be tracking your progress
with huge interest.
with huge interest.
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KA: Pratićemo vaš napredak
sa velikim interesovanjem.
sa velikim interesovanjem.
15:24
Thanks so much, Chris.
CU: Thank you. (Applause)
CU: Thank you. (Applause)
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Hvala puno, Kris.
KU: Hvala vama. (Aplauz)
KU: Hvala vama. (Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Chris Urmson - RoboticistChris Umson is the Director of Self-Driving Cars at Google[x].
Why you should listen
Since 2009, Chris Urmson has headed up Google’s self-driving car program. So far, the team’s vehicles have driven over three quarters of a million miles. While early models included a driverless Prius that TEDsters got to test- ... um, -not-drive in 2011, more and more the team is building vehicles from the ground up, custom-made to go driverless.
Prior to joining Google, Umson was on the faculty of the Robotics Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, where his research focused on motion planning and perception for robotic vehicles. During his time at Carnegie Mellon, he served as Director of Technology for the team that won the 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge.
Chris Urmson | Speaker | TED.com