TED2015
Chris Urmson: How a driverless car sees the road
Chris Urmson: Kako samovozeći auto vidi cestu
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Statistički, najmanje pouzdani dio auta je ... vozač. Chris Urmson nam predstavlja Googlov program auta bez vozača, jedan od nekoliko pokušaja uklanjanja ljudi iz vozačkog sjedišta. Priča o tome gdje je njegov program upravo sada, te dijeli očaravajuće snimke koje pokazuju kako auto vidi cestu i čini nezavisne odluke o tome što da učini slijedeće.
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
So in 1885, Karl Benz
invented the automobile.
invented the automobile.
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Dakle 1885, Karl Benz
izumio je automobil.
izumio je automobil.
00:16
Later that year, he took it out
for the first public test drive,
for the first public test drive,
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Kasnije te godine, izveo ga je
na prvu javnu probnu vožnju,
na prvu javnu probnu vožnju,
00:20
and -- true story --
crashed into a wall.
crashed into a wall.
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i -- istinita priča --
zabio se u zid.
zabio se u zid.
00:24
For the last 130 years,
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Kroz zadnjih 130 godina,
00:26
we've been working around that least
reliable part of the car, the driver.
reliable part of the car, the driver.
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radili smo oko najmanje
pouzdanog dijela auta, vozača.
pouzdanog dijela auta, vozača.
00:30
We've made the car stronger.
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Napravili smo aute jačim.
00:32
We've added seat belts,
we've added air bags,
we've added air bags,
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Dodali smo sigurnosne pojase,
dodali smo zračne jastuke,
dodali smo zračne jastuke,
00:34
and in the last decade, we've actually
started trying to make the car smarter
started trying to make the car smarter
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a u zadnjem desetljeću, zapravo
smo počeli činiti aute pametnijima
smo počeli činiti aute pametnijima
00:38
to fix that bug, the driver.
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da popravimo taj bug, vozača.
00:41
Now, today I'm going to talk to you
a little bit about the difference
a little bit about the difference
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Sad, danas ću vam pričati
nešto malo o razlici
nešto malo o razlici
00:44
between patching around the problem
with driver assistance systems
with driver assistance systems
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između krpanja oko problema
sa sustavima pomoći vozaču
sa sustavima pomoći vozaču
00:48
and actually having fully
self-driving cars
self-driving cars
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i imanja pravih posve
samovozećih automobila.
samovozećih automobila.
00:51
and what they can do for the world.
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te što oni mogu učiniti za svijet.
00:53
I'm also going to talk to you
a little bit about our car
a little bit about our car
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Također ću vam pričati
malo i o našem autu
malo i o našem autu
00:56
and allow you to see how it sees the world
and how it reacts and what it does,
and how it reacts and what it does,
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i dozvoliti vam da vidite kako on vidi svijet
te kako reagira i što čini,
te kako reagira i što čini,
01:00
but first I'm going to talk
a little bit about the problem.
a little bit about the problem.
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ali prvo ću malo
pričati o problemu.
pričati o problemu.
01:03
And it's a big problem:
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A to je veliki problem:
01:05
1.2 million people are killed
on the world's roads every year.
on the world's roads every year.
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1,2 milijuna ljudi je ubijeno
na svjetskim cestama svake godine.
na svjetskim cestama svake godine.
01:08
In America alone, 33,000 people
are killed each year.
are killed each year.
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Samo u Americi, 33.000 ljudi
je ubijeno svake godine.
je ubijeno svake godine.
01:12
To put that in perspective,
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Da to stavimo u perspektivu,
01:14
that's the same as a 737
falling out of the sky every working day.
falling out of the sky every working day.
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to je jednako kao da 737
padne s neba svaki radni dan.
padne s neba svaki radni dan.
01:19
It's kind of unbelievable.
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Na neki je način nevjerojatno.
01:21
Cars are sold to us like this,
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Aute nam prodaju ovako,
01:23
but really, this is what driving's like.
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ali zapravo, ovo je kako izgleda vožnja.
01:26
Right? It's not sunny, it's rainy,
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Je li tako? Nije sunčano, pada kiša,
01:28
and you want to do anything
other than drive.
other than drive.
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i želite raditi bilo što drugo,
samo ne voziti.
samo ne voziti.
01:31
And the reason why is this:
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A razlog zašto je ovaj:
01:32
Traffic is getting worse.
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Promet postaje gori.
01:34
In America, between 1990 and 2010,
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U Americi, od 1990 do 2010,
01:38
the vehicle miles traveled
increased by 38 percent.
increased by 38 percent.
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milje proputovane vozilima
su porasle 38 posto.
su porasle 38 posto.
01:42
We grew by six percent of roads,
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Porasli smo za šest posto u cestama,
01:44
so it's not in your brains.
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tako da vam to nije u glavama.
01:46
Traffic really is substantially worse
than it was not very long ago.
than it was not very long ago.
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Promet je zbilja bitno gori
nego što je bio ne tako davno.
nego što je bio ne tako davno.
01:50
And all of this has a very human cost.
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A sve to ima vrlo ljudsku cijenu.
01:53
So if you take the average commute time
in America, which is about 50 minutes,
in America, which is about 50 minutes,
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Pa ako uzmete prosječno vrijeme
dnevne vožnje koje je pedesetak minuta,
dnevne vožnje koje je pedesetak minuta,
01:57
you multiply that by the 120 million
workers we have,
workers we have,
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pomnožite to sa 120 milijuna
radnika koliko ih imamo,
radnika koliko ih imamo,
02:01
that turns out to be
about six billion minutes
about six billion minutes
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ispadne da je to
otprilike šest milijardi minuta
otprilike šest milijardi minuta
02:03
wasted in commuting every day.
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potrošenih u prometu
svaki dan.
svaki dan.
02:05
Now, that's a big number,
so let's put it in perspective.
so let's put it in perspective.
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Sad, to je velik broj,
pa ajmo ga staviti u perspektivu.
pa ajmo ga staviti u perspektivu.
02:08
You take that six billion minutes
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Uzmete tih šest milijardi minuta
02:09
and you divide it by the average
life expectancy of a person,
life expectancy of a person,
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i podijelite ih sa prosječnim
očekivanim životnim vijekom osobe,
očekivanim životnim vijekom osobe,
02:13
that turns out to be 162 lifetimes
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ispadne 162 životna vijeka
02:16
spent every day, wasted,
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potrošenih svaki dan, bačenih
02:19
just getting from A to B.
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samo na prelazak od A do B.
02:21
It's unbelievable.
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Nevjerojatno.
02:23
And then, there are those of us
who don't have the privilege
who don't have the privilege
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A potom, ima ih među nama
koji nemaju povlasticu
koji nemaju povlasticu
02:26
of sitting in traffic.
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sudjelovanja u prometu.
02:28
So this is Steve.
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Dakle ovo je Steve.
02:29
He's an incredibly capable guy,
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On je nevjerojatno sposoban tip,
02:31
but he just happens to be blind,
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samo što je slijep,
02:33
and that means instead of a 30-minute
drive to work in the morning,
drive to work in the morning,
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a to znači kako umjesto 30 minutne
vožnje do posla ujutro,
vožnje do posla ujutro,
02:37
it's a two-hour ordeal
of piecing together bits of public transit
of piecing together bits of public transit
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to je dvosatno iskušenje
sastavljanja djelića javnog prijevoza
sastavljanja djelića javnog prijevoza
02:41
or asking friends and family for a ride.
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ili molba prijateljima i obitelji za prijevoz.
02:43
He doesn't have that same freedom
that you and I have to get around.
that you and I have to get around.
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On nema istu slobodu
kao vi i ja glede kretanja uokolo.
kao vi i ja glede kretanja uokolo.
02:47
We should do something about that.
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Trebali bismo učiniti nešto u vezi toga.
02:49
Now, conventional wisdom would say
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Sad, uobičajena bi mudrost rekla
02:51
that we'll just take
these driver assistance systems
these driver assistance systems
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neka samo uzmemo
te sustave pomoći vozaču
te sustave pomoći vozaču
02:54
and we'll kind of push them
and incrementally improve them,
and incrementally improve them,
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pa ćemo ih onda gurati
i postepeno usavršavati
i postepeno usavršavati
02:57
and over time, they'll turn
into self-driving cars.
into self-driving cars.
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te će se tijekom vremena
premetnuti u samovozeće aute.
premetnuti u samovozeće aute.
03:00
Well, I'm here to tell you
that's like me saying
that's like me saying
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Dobro, ovdje sam
kako bih vam rekao da je to nalik izjavi
kako bih vam rekao da je to nalik izjavi
03:02
that if I work really hard at jumping,
one day I'll be able to fly.
one day I'll be able to fly.
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kako ću ako jako uporno
radim na skakanju, jednoga dana moći letjeti.
radim na skakanju, jednoga dana moći letjeti.
03:06
We actually need to do
something a little different.
something a little different.
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Zapravo trebamo napraviti
nešto malo drugačije.
nešto malo drugačije.
03:09
And so I'm going to talk to you
about three different ways
about three different ways
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Pa ću vam pričati
o tri različita načina
o tri različita načina
03:12
that self-driving systems are different
than driver assistance systems.
than driver assistance systems.
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na koji su samovozeći sustavi drugačiji
od sustava pomoći vozaču.
od sustava pomoći vozaču.
03:15
And I'm going to start
with some of our own experience.
with some of our own experience.
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A započeti ću
sa nekim od naših vlastitih iskustava.
sa nekim od naših vlastitih iskustava.
03:18
So back in 2013,
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Dakle natrag u 2013.
03:20
we had the first test
of a self-driving car
of a self-driving car
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imali smo prvi ispit
samovozećeg auta
samovozećeg auta
03:23
where we let regular people use it.
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gdje smo ga prepustili
na korištenje običnim ljudima.
na korištenje običnim ljudima.
03:25
Well, almost regular --
they were 100 Googlers,
they were 100 Googlers,
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Pa, gotovo običnim --
bilo je to 100 Googlovaca,
bilo je to 100 Googlovaca,
03:27
but they weren't working on the project.
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ali nisu radili na projektu.
03:29
And we gave them the car and we allowed
them to use it in their daily lives.
them to use it in their daily lives.
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Dali smo im auto i dopustili im
koristiti ga u svakodnevnom životu.
koristiti ga u svakodnevnom životu.
03:33
But unlike a real self-driving car,
this one had a big asterisk with it:
this one had a big asterisk with it:
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Ali za razliku od pravog samovozećeg auta,
ovaj je dolazio sa velikom zvjezdicom:
ovaj je dolazio sa velikom zvjezdicom:
03:36
They had to pay attention,
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Morali su obraćati pažnju,
03:38
because this was an experimental vehicle.
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stoga što je ovo bilo pokusno vozilo.
03:40
We tested it a lot,
but it could still fail.
but it could still fail.
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Puno smo ga iskušavali,
ali i dalje je mogao iznevjeriti.
ali i dalje je mogao iznevjeriti.
03:44
And so we gave them two hours of training,
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Pa smo im dali dva sata obuke,
03:46
we put them in the car,
we let them use it,
we let them use it,
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smjestili u auto,
dali im koristiti ga,
dali im koristiti ga,
03:48
and what we heard back
was something awesome,
was something awesome,
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a što smo čuli zauzvrat
je bilo nešto odlično,
je bilo nešto odlično,
03:50
as someone trying
to bring a product into the world.
to bring a product into the world.
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nekome tko pokušava
donijeti proizvod na svijet.
donijeti proizvod na svijet.
03:53
Every one of them told us they loved it.
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Svaki od njih nam je rekao kako ga vole.
03:55
In fact, we had a Porsche driver
who came in and told us on the first day,
who came in and told us on the first day,
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Zapravo, imalo smo vozača Poršea
koji je došao i rekao nam prvi dan:
koji je došao i rekao nam prvi dan:
03:58
"This is completely stupid.
What are we thinking?"
What are we thinking?"
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"Ovo je skroz glupo.
Što nam pada na pamet?"
Što nam pada na pamet?"
04:01
But at the end of it, he said,
"Not only should I have it,
"Not only should I have it,
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Ali na kraju, rekao je:
"Ne samo da bih ga ja trebao imati,
"Ne samo da bih ga ja trebao imati,
04:04
everyone else should have it,
because people are terrible drivers."
because people are terrible drivers."
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svi bi ga drugi trebali imati,
jer ljudi su užasni vozači."
jer ljudi su užasni vozači."
04:09
So this was music to our ears,
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To je bila muzika za naše uši,
04:10
but then we started to look at what
the people inside the car were doing,
the people inside the car were doing,
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ali tada smo počeli gledati
što su ljudi u autu radili,
što su ljudi u autu radili,
04:14
and this was eye-opening.
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i to nam je otvorilo oči.
04:16
Now, my favorite story is this gentleman
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Sad, moja je
omiljena priča ovaj gospodin
omiljena priča ovaj gospodin
04:18
who looks down at his phone
and realizes the battery is low,
and realizes the battery is low,
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koji gleda svoj telefon
i vidi da mu je baterija slaba,
i vidi da mu je baterija slaba,
04:22
so he turns around like this in the car
and digs around in his backpack,
and digs around in his backpack,
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pa se okreće ovako u autu
i kopa okolo po svojoj naprtnjači,
i kopa okolo po svojoj naprtnjači,
04:27
pulls out his laptop,
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vadi svoj laptop,
04:29
puts it on the seat,
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stavlja ga na sjedište,
04:30
goes in the back again,
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ide nazad ponovo,,
04:32
digs around, pulls out
the charging cable for his phone,
the charging cable for his phone,
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kopa okolo, vadi
kabel za napajanje telefona,
kabel za napajanje telefona,
04:35
futzes around, puts it into the laptop,
puts it on the phone.
puts it on the phone.
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raspliće ga, ukapča ga u laptop,
ukapča ga u telefon.
ukapča ga u telefon.
04:39
Sure enough, the phone is charging.
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Sigurno, telefon se puni.
04:41
All the time he's been doing
65 miles per hour down the freeway.
65 miles per hour down the freeway.
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Svo je to vrijeme vozio
100 km na sat po autocesti.
100 km na sat po autocesti.
04:45
Right? Unbelievable.
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Jel tako? Nevjerojatno.
04:47
So we thought about this and we said,
it's kind of obvious, right?
it's kind of obvious, right?
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Porazmislili smo o ovome i rekosmo,
zapravo je na neki način očito, ne?
zapravo je na neki način očito, ne?
04:50
The better the technology gets,
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Što će tehnologija postajati bolja,
04:53
the less reliable
the driver is going to get.
the driver is going to get.
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to će manje pouzdan
postajati vozač.
postajati vozač.
04:55
So by just making the cars
incrementally smarter,
incrementally smarter,
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Tako da samo praveći aute
postepeno pametnijima,
postepeno pametnijima,
04:57
we're probably not going to see
the wins we really need.
the wins we really need.
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vjerojatno nećemo vidjeti
pobjede koje zbilja trebamo.
pobjede koje zbilja trebamo.
05:00
Let me talk about something
a little technical for a moment here.
a little technical for a moment here.
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Dajte da malo pričam o nečemu
malo tehničkom na trenutak.
malo tehničkom na trenutak.
05:04
So we're looking at this graph,
and along the bottom
and along the bottom
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Dakle gledamo ovaj grafikon,
a po njegovom dnu je
a po njegovom dnu je
05:06
is how often does the car
apply the brakes when it shouldn't.
apply the brakes when it shouldn't.
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koliko često auto
koči kada ne bi trebao.
koči kada ne bi trebao.
05:09
You can ignore most of that axis,
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Možete ignorirati većinu te osi,
05:11
because if you're driving around town,
and the car starts stopping randomly,
and the car starts stopping randomly,
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jer ako vozite po gradu,
a auto se počne nasumično zaustavljati,
a auto se počne nasumično zaustavljati,
05:15
you're never going to buy that car.
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nikad nećete kupiti takav auto.
05:17
And the vertical axis is how often
the car is going to apply the brakes
the car is going to apply the brakes
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A vertikalna je os koliko će često
auto pritisnuti kočnicu
auto pritisnuti kočnicu
05:20
when it's supposed to
to help you avoid an accident.
to help you avoid an accident.
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kada bi i trebao kako bi
vam pomogao izbjeći nezgodu.
vam pomogao izbjeći nezgodu.
05:23
Now, if we look at
the bottom left corner here,
the bottom left corner here,
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Sad, ako pogledamo u
donji lijevi ugao,
donji lijevi ugao,
05:25
this is your classic car.
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ovo je vaš klasični auto.
05:27
It doesn't apply the brakes for you,
it doesn't do anything goofy,
it doesn't do anything goofy,
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Ne pritišće kočnice umjesto vas,
ne čini ništa šašavo,
ne čini ništa šašavo,
05:30
but it also doesn't get you
out of an accident.
out of an accident.
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ali vas također niti
ne izvlači iz nezgoda.
ne izvlači iz nezgoda.
05:33
Now, if we want to bring
a driver assistance system into a car,
a driver assistance system into a car,
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Sad, ako želimo dovesti
sustav za pomoć vozaču u auto,
sustav za pomoć vozaču u auto,
05:36
say with collision mitigation braking,
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recimo kroz kočenje
radi izbjegavanja sudara,
radi izbjegavanja sudara,
05:38
we're going to put some package
of technology on there,
of technology on there,
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ubacit ćemo u njega
neki paket tehnologije,
neki paket tehnologije,
05:40
and that's this curve, and it's going
to have some operating properties,
to have some operating properties,
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a to je ova krivulja,
i imat će neka operativna svojstva,
i imat će neka operativna svojstva,
05:44
but it's never going to avoid
all of the accidents,
all of the accidents,
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ali nikad neće izbjeći
baš sve nezgode,
baš sve nezgode,
05:46
because it doesn't have that capability.
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jer nema te sposobnosti.
05:48
But we'll pick some place
along the curve here,
along the curve here,
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Ali odabrat ćemo
neko mjesto na ovoj krivulji,
neko mjesto na ovoj krivulji,
05:51
and maybe it avoids half of accidents
that the human driver misses,
that the human driver misses,
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te možda izbjegava polovicu
nezgoda koje čovjek ne bi,
nezgoda koje čovjek ne bi,
05:54
and that's amazing, right?
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i to je zapanjujuće, ne?
05:55
We just reduced accidents on our roads
by a factor of two.
by a factor of two.
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Upravo smo smanjili nezgode
na našim cestama za duplo.
na našim cestama za duplo.
05:58
There are now 17,000 less people
dying every year in America.
dying every year in America.
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Sad 17.000 manje ljudi
umire svake godine u Americi.
umire svake godine u Americi.
06:02
But if we want a self-driving car,
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Ali ako želimo samovozeći auto,
06:04
we need a technology curve
that looks like this.
that looks like this.
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trebamo tehnološku krivulju
koja izgleda ovako.
koja izgleda ovako.
06:06
We're going to have to put
more sensors in the vehicle,
more sensors in the vehicle,
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Morat ćemo stavljati
više senzora u vozilo,
više senzora u vozilo,
06:09
and we'll pick some
operating point up here
operating point up here
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i odabrat ćemo neku
operativnu točku ovdje
operativnu točku ovdje
06:11
where it basically never
gets into a crash.
gets into a crash.
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gdje zapravo nikad ne
dolazi do sudara.
dolazi do sudara.
06:13
They'll happen, but very low frequency.
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Događat će se, ali vrlo rijetko.
06:15
Now you and I could look at this
and we could argue
and we could argue
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Sad bismo vi i ja mogli
gledati ovo i raspravljati
gledati ovo i raspravljati
06:18
about whether it's incremental, and
I could say something like "80-20 rule,"
I could say something like "80-20 rule,"
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Raste li postupno, a ja bih mogao
spomenuti nešto poput pravila 80-20,
spomenuti nešto poput pravila 80-20,
06:21
and it's really hard to move up
to that new curve.
to that new curve.
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a zbilja je teško
popeti se do te nove krivulje.
popeti se do te nove krivulje.
06:24
But let's look at it
from a different direction for a moment.
from a different direction for a moment.
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Ali pogledajmo na to
iz drugog smjera na trenutak.
iz drugog smjera na trenutak.
06:27
So let's look at how often
the technology has to do the right thing.
the technology has to do the right thing.
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Pogledajmo koliko često
tehnologija mora učiniti pravu stvar.
tehnologija mora učiniti pravu stvar.
06:30
And so this green dot up here
is a driver assistance system.
is a driver assistance system.
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Tako je ova zelena točka gore
sustav pomoći vozaču.
sustav pomoći vozaču.
06:34
It turns out that human drivers
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Ispada da ljudski vozači
06:36
make mistakes that lead
to traffic accidents
to traffic accidents
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čine greške koje
dovode do prometnih nesreća
dovode do prometnih nesreća
06:39
about once every 100,000 miles in America.
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otprilike jednom
svakih 100.000 milja u Americi.
svakih 100.000 milja u Americi.
06:42
In contrast, a self-driving system
is probably making decisions
is probably making decisions
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Za usporedbu, samovozeći sustav
vjerojatno donosi odluke
vjerojatno donosi odluke
06:45
about 10 times per second,
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oko 10 puta po sekundi,
06:49
so order of magnitude,
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dakle red veličina,
06:50
that's about 1,000 times per mile.
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to je oko 1000 puta po milji.
06:53
So if you compare the distance
between these two,
between these two,
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Pa ako usporedite
udaljenost između to dvoje,
udaljenost između to dvoje,
06:56
it's about 10 to the eighth, right?
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to je otprilike 10^8, jel tako?
06:58
Eight orders of magnitude.
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Osam redova veličine.
07:00
That's like comparing how fast I run
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To je kao usporediti koliko brzo trčim
07:03
to the speed of light.
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sa brzinom svjetlosti.
07:05
It doesn't matter how hard I train,
I'm never actually going to get there.
I'm never actually going to get there.
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Nema veze koliko teško treniram,
nikad zbilja neću stići tamo.
nikad zbilja neću stići tamo.
07:09
So there's a pretty big gap there.
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Dakle tu je poprilično velik jaz.
07:11
And then finally, there's how
the system can handle uncertainty.
the system can handle uncertainty.
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I konačno, tu je i kako
se sustav može nositi sa nesigurnošću.
se sustav može nositi sa nesigurnošću.
07:15
So this pedestrian here might be
stepping into the road, might not be.
stepping into the road, might not be.
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Primjerice ovaj pješak će možda
stati na cestu, a možda i neće.
stati na cestu, a možda i neće.
07:18
I can't tell,
nor can any of our algorithms,
nor can any of our algorithms,
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Ne mogu reći,
niti to može ikoji od naših algoritama,
niti to može ikoji od naših algoritama,
07:22
but in the case of
a driver assistance system,
a driver assistance system,
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ali u slučaju
sustava pomoći vozaču,
sustava pomoći vozaču,
07:24
that means it can't take action,
because again,
because again,
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to znači kako ne može poduzeti akciju,
jer ponovo
jer ponovo
07:27
if it presses the brakes unexpectedly,
that's completely unacceptable.
that's completely unacceptable.
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ako stisne kočnicu neočekivano,
to je posve neprihvatljivo.
to je posve neprihvatljivo.
07:30
Whereas a self-driving system
can look at that pedestrian and say,
can look at that pedestrian and say,
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Dok samovozeći sustav
može osmotriti pješaka i reći,
može osmotriti pješaka i reći,
07:33
I don't know what they're about to do,
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Ne znam što se sprema učiniti,
07:35
slow down, take a better look,
and then react appropriately after that.
and then react appropriately after that.
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uspori, bolje osmotri,
a tada se ponesi prikladno.
a tada se ponesi prikladno.
07:39
So it can be much safer than
a driver assistance system can ever be.
a driver assistance system can ever be.
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Dakle može biti puno sigurniji nego
što sustav pomoći vozaču može biti ikad .
što sustav pomoći vozaču može biti ikad .
07:43
So that's enough about
the differences between the two.
the differences between the two.
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No to je dovoljno o
razlikama između to dvoje.
razlikama između to dvoje.
07:45
Let's spend some time talking about
how the car sees the world.
how the car sees the world.
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Hajdemo potrošiti neko vrijeme
pričajući o tome kako auto vidi svijet.
pričajući o tome kako auto vidi svijet.
07:49
So this is our vehicle.
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Dakle ovo je naše vozilo.
07:50
It starts by understanding
where it is in the world,
where it is in the world,
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Počinje od razumijevanja
gdje se nalazi u svijetu,
gdje se nalazi u svijetu,
07:53
by taking a map and its sensor data
and aligning the two,
and aligning the two,
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uzimajući mapu i svoje podatke iz senzora
te ih usklađuje
te ih usklađuje
07:55
and then we layer on top of that
what it sees in the moment.
what it sees in the moment.
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a potom stavljamo povrh toga
ono što vidi u trenutku.
ono što vidi u trenutku.
07:58
So here, all the purple boxes you can see
are other vehicles on the road,
are other vehicles on the road,
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Pa ovdje, sve ljubičaste kutije
koje možete vidjeti su druga vozila.
koje možete vidjeti su druga vozila.
08:02
and the red thing on the side
over there is a cyclist,
over there is a cyclist,
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A crvena stvar
tamo sa strane je biciklist,
tamo sa strane je biciklist,
08:05
and up in the distance,
if you look really closely,
if you look really closely,
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a gore u daljini,
ako gledate zbilja pažljivo,
ako gledate zbilja pažljivo,
08:07
you can see some cones.
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možete vidjeti neke čunjiće.
08:09
Then we know where the car
is in the moment,
is in the moment,
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Tada znamo gdje se auto
nalazi u nekom trenutku,
nalazi u nekom trenutku,
08:12
but we have to do better than that:
we have to predict what's going to happen.
we have to predict what's going to happen.
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Ali moramo napraviti bolje od tog:
moramo predvidjeti što će se dogoditi.
moramo predvidjeti što će se dogoditi.
08:15
So here the pickup truck in top right
is about to make a left lane change
is about to make a left lane change
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Pa se ovdje auto gore desno
baš sprema prestrojiti u traku lijevo
baš sprema prestrojiti u traku lijevo
08:19
because the road in front of it is closed,
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jer je cesta ispred njega zatvorena,
08:21
so it needs to get out of the way.
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pa se treba maknuti s puta.
08:23
Knowing that one pickup truck is great,
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Znati o tom jednom autu je odlično,
08:25
but we really need to know
what everybody's thinking,
what everybody's thinking,
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ali mi zapravo trebamo znati
što svi razmišljaju,
što svi razmišljaju,
08:27
so it becomes quite a complicated problem.
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pa to postaje priično složen problem.
08:30
And then given that, we can figure out
how the car should respond in the moment,
how the car should respond in the moment,
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A potom bismo mogli shvatiti
kako bi auto trebao odgovarati u trenutku,
kako bi auto trebao odgovarati u trenutku,
08:34
so what trajectory it should follow, how
quickly it should slow down or speed up.
quickly it should slow down or speed up.
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dakle koju putanju bi trebao slijediti,
koliko bi trebao usporiti ili ubrzati.
koliko bi trebao usporiti ili ubrzati.
08:38
And then that all turns into
just following a path:
just following a path:
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A potom se to sve svodi
samo na slijeđenje uputa:
samo na slijeđenje uputa:
08:41
turning the steering wheel left or right,
pressing the brake or gas.
pressing the brake or gas.
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okretanje volana lijevo ili desno,
pritiskanje gasa ili kočnice.
pritiskanje gasa ili kočnice.
08:45
It's really just two numbers
at the end of the day.
at the end of the day.
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To su zapravo samo dva broja
na kraju dana.
na kraju dana.
08:47
So how hard can it really be?
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Pa koliko to teško zapravo može biti?
08:50
Back when we started in 2009,
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Kad smo tek počinjali 2009.
08:52
this is what our system looked like.
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ovo je kako je naš sustav izgledao.
08:54
So you can see our car in the middle
and the other boxes on the road,
and the other boxes on the road,
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Možete vidjeti naš auto u sredini
te druge kutije na cesti,
te druge kutije na cesti,
08:57
driving down the highway.
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kako se voze autoputom.
08:58
The car needs to understand where it is
and roughly where the other vehicles are.
and roughly where the other vehicles are.
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Auto mora razumjeti gdje je
te ugrubo gdje su ostala vozila.
te ugrubo gdje su ostala vozila.
09:02
It's really a geometric
understanding of the world.
understanding of the world.
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To je zapravo geometrijsko
razumijevanje svijeta.
razumijevanje svijeta.
09:05
Once we started driving
on neighborhood and city streets,
on neighborhood and city streets,
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Jednom kad smo krenuli voziti
po ulicama susjedstva i grada,
po ulicama susjedstva i grada,
09:08
the problem becomes a whole
new level of difficulty.
new level of difficulty.
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problem doseže
posve novu razinu teškoće.
posve novu razinu teškoće.
09:10
You see pedestrians crossing in front
of us, cars crossing in front of us,
of us, cars crossing in front of us,
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Vidite pješake kako prolaze ispred nas,
aute kako prolaze ispred nas,
aute kako prolaze ispred nas,
09:13
going every which way,
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u svakakvim smjerovima,
09:15
the traffic lights, crosswalks.
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semafore, pješačke prijelaze.
09:17
It's an incredibly complicated
problem by comparison.
problem by comparison.
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To je nevjerojatno složen
problem u usporedbi.
problem u usporedbi.
09:20
And then once you have
that problem solved,
that problem solved,
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A onda jednom kad taj problem imate riješen,
09:22
the vehicle has to be able
to deal with construction.
to deal with construction.
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Vozilo mora biti u stanju
nositi se sa radovima na cesti
nositi se sa radovima na cesti
09:24
So here are the cones on the left
forcing it to drive to the right,
forcing it to drive to the right,
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Pa su ovdje čunjići s lijeva
koji ga prisiljavaju na vožnju po desnoj strani,
koji ga prisiljavaju na vožnju po desnoj strani,
09:27
but not just construction
in isolation, of course.
in isolation, of course.
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ali ne samo radovi na cesti
u izolaciji, naravno.
u izolaciji, naravno.
09:30
It has to deal with other people moving
through that construction zone as well.
through that construction zone as well.
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Mora se nositi i sa drugim ljudima
koji se kreću kroz tu zonu radova.
koji se kreću kroz tu zonu radova.
09:34
And of course, if anyone's
breaking the rules, the police are there
breaking the rules, the police are there
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Te naravno, ako netko
krši pravila, postoji policija
krši pravila, postoji policija
09:37
and the car has to understand that
that flashing light on the top of the car
that flashing light on the top of the car
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a auto mora razumjeti kako
rotirka na krovu tog auta
rotirka na krovu tog auta
09:40
means that it's not just a car,
it's actually a police officer.
it's actually a police officer.
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znači kako to nije samo auto,
već zapravo policijski dužnosnik.
već zapravo policijski dužnosnik.
09:43
Similarly, the orange box
on the side here,
on the side here,
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Slično tome, narančasta kutija
tu sa strane,
tu sa strane,
09:46
it's a school bus,
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je školski autobus,
09:47
and we have to treat that
differently as well.
differently as well.
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i njega također trebamo
tretirati drugačije.
tretirati drugačije.
09:50
When we're out on the road,
other people have expectations:
other people have expectations:
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Kad izađemo na cestu,
drugi ljudi imaju očekivanja:
drugi ljudi imaju očekivanja:
09:53
So, when a cyclist puts up their arm,
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tako, kad biciklist ispruži ruku,
09:55
it means they're expecting the car
to yield to them and make room for them
to yield to them and make room for them
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to znači kako očekuju da ih auto propusti
i napravi im mjesta
i napravi im mjesta
09:58
to make a lane change.
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kako bi promijenili traku.
10:01
And when a police officer
stood in the road,
stood in the road,
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A kad policajac
stoji na cesti,
stoji na cesti,
10:03
our vehicle should understand
that this means stop,
that this means stop,
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naš bi auto trebao razumjeti
kako to znači zaustavljanje,
kako to znači zaustavljanje,
10:05
and when they signal to go,
we should continue.
we should continue.
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a kad nam signaliziraju pokret,
trebali bismo nastaviti.
trebali bismo nastaviti.
10:09
Now, the way we accomplish this
is by sharing data between the vehicles.
is by sharing data between the vehicles.
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Sad, način na koji to postižemo
je dijeleći podatke među vozilima.
je dijeleći podatke među vozilima.
10:13
The first, most crude model of this
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Prvi, najsiroviji model toga
10:14
is when one vehicle
sees a construction zone,
sees a construction zone,
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2113
je kad jedno vozilo
vidi zonu radova na cesti,
vidi zonu radova na cesti,
10:17
having another know about it
so it can be in the correct lane
so it can be in the correct lane
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da obavijesti drugo
kako bi to znalo biti u pravoj traci
kako bi to znalo biti u pravoj traci
10:20
to avoid some of the difficulty.
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kako bi izbjeglo poteškoće.
10:21
But we actually have a much
deeper understanding of this.
deeper understanding of this.
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Ali mi zapravo imamo puno
dublje razumijevanje ovoga.
dublje razumijevanje ovoga.
10:24
We could take all of the data
that the cars have seen over time,
that the cars have seen over time,
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Mogli bismo uzeti sve podatke
koje su auti prikupili tijekom vremena
koje su auti prikupili tijekom vremena
10:27
the hundreds of thousands
of pedestrians, cyclists,
of pedestrians, cyclists,
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stotine tisuća
pješaka, biciklista,
pješaka, biciklista,
10:29
and vehicles that have been out there
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i vozila koja su bila tamo
10:31
and understand what they look like
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te razumjeti kako izgledaju
10:33
and use that to infer
what other vehicles should look like
what other vehicles should look like
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2831
a potom to iskoristiti kako bi zaključili
kako bi druga vozila trebala izgledati
kako bi druga vozila trebala izgledati
10:36
and other pedestrians should look like.
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i kako bi trebali izgledati drugi pješaci.
10:37
And then, even more importantly,
we could take from that a model
we could take from that a model
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3021
A tad, čak i važnije,
mogli bismo iz toga izvesti model
mogli bismo iz toga izvesti model
10:40
of how we expect them
to move through the world.
to move through the world.
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toga kako od njih očekujemo
da se kreću kroz svijet.
da se kreću kroz svijet.
10:43
So here the yellow box is a pedestrian
crossing in front of us.
crossing in front of us.
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Tako je ovdje žuta kutija pješak
koji prelazi cestu ispred nas.
koji prelazi cestu ispred nas.
10:46
Here the blue box is a cyclist
and we anticipate
and we anticipate
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Ovdje je plava kutija biciklist
a mi očekujemo
a mi očekujemo
10:48
that they're going to nudge out
and around the car to the right.
and around the car to the right.
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da će se progurati van
i oko auta s desne strane.
i oko auta s desne strane.
10:52
Here there's a cyclist
coming down the road
coming down the road
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Ovdje imamo biciklista
koji se kreće cestom
koji se kreće cestom
10:54
and we know they're going to continue
to drive down the shape of the road.
to drive down the shape of the road.
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a mi znamo kako će se nastaviti
kretati slijedeći oblik ceste.
kretati slijedeći oblik ceste.
10:57
Here somebody makes a right turn,
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Ovdje netko skreće desno,
10:59
and in a moment here, somebody's
going to make a U-turn in front of us,
going to make a U-turn in front of us,
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a za trenutak ovdje, netko
će skrenuti polukružno ispred nas,
će skrenuti polukružno ispred nas,
11:02
and we can anticipate that behavior
and respond safely.
and respond safely.
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i mi možemo predvidjeti to ponašanje
te mu odgovoriti sigurno.
te mu odgovoriti sigurno.
11:05
Now, that's all well and good
for things that we've seen,
for things that we've seen,
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Sad, sve je to lijepo i krasno
za stvari koje smo vidjeli,
za stvari koje smo vidjeli,
11:08
but of course, you encounter
lots of things that you haven't
lots of things that you haven't
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ali naravno, srećete
puno stvari koje niste
puno stvari koje niste
11:11
seen in the world before.
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ranije vidjeli u svijetu.
11:12
And so just a couple of months ago,
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I tako baš prije par mjeseci,
11:14
our vehicles were driving
through Mountain View,
through Mountain View,
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naša su vozila
bila vozila kroz Mountain View,
bila vozila kroz Mountain View,
11:16
and this is what we encountered.
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a ovo je što smo susreli.
11:17
This is a woman in an electric wheelchair
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Ovo je žena u električnim kolicima
11:20
chasing a duck in circles on the road.
(Laughter)
(Laughter)
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koja ganja patku u krugovima po cesti.
(Smijeh)
(Smijeh)
11:22
Now it turns out, there is nowhere
in the DMV handbook
in the DMV handbook
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Ispada kako nigdje u
priručniku za vožnju ne piše
priručniku za vožnju ne piše
11:25
that tells you how to deal with that,
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kako se nositi s time,
11:28
but our vehicles were able
to encounter that,
to encounter that,
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ali naša su vozila bila u stanju
nabasati na to,
nabasati na to,
11:30
slow down, and drive safely.
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usporiti, te voziti sigurno.
11:32
Now, we don't have to deal
with just ducks.
with just ducks.
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Sad, ne moramo raditi
samo sa patkama.
samo sa patkama.
11:34
Watch this bird fly across in front of us.
The car reacts to that.
The car reacts to that.
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Pogledajte ovu pticu kako prolijeće ispred nas.
Auto reagira na to.
Auto reagira na to.
11:38
Here we're dealing with a cyclist
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Ovdje imamo posla s biciklistom
11:39
that you would never expect to see
anywhere other than Mountain View.
anywhere other than Mountain View.
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kojeg ne biste očekivali vidjeti nigdje
drugdje nego u Mountain Viewu.
drugdje nego u Mountain Viewu.
11:43
And of course, we have
to deal with drivers,
to deal with drivers,
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Te naravno, imamo posla i sa biciklistima,
11:45
even the very small ones.
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čak i vrlo malenima.
11:48
Watch to the right as someone
jumps out of this truck at us.
jumps out of this truck at us.
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Gledajte desno dok netko
iskače iz kamiona točno pred nas
iskače iz kamiona točno pred nas
11:54
And now, watch the left as the car
with the green box decides
with the green box decides
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a sad, gledajte lijevo dok auto
sa zelenom kutijom odlučuje
sa zelenom kutijom odlučuje
11:57
he needs to make a right turn
at the last possible moment.
at the last possible moment.
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kako mora skrenuti desno
u zadnji mogući trenutak.
u zadnji mogući trenutak.
12:00
Here, as we make a lane change,
the car to our left decides
the car to our left decides
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Ovdje, dok mijenjamo trake
auto nama slijeva odlučuje
auto nama slijeva odlučuje
12:03
it wants to as well.
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kako želi to isto.
12:07
And here, we watch a car
blow through a red light
blow through a red light
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A ovdje, gledamo auto
kako prolazi kroz crveno
kako prolazi kroz crveno
12:09
and yield to it.
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te potom u tome ustraje.
12:11
And similarly, here, a cyclist
blowing through that light as well.
blowing through that light as well.
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A također, ovdje, biciklist
također prolazi kroz to svjetlo.
također prolazi kroz to svjetlo.
12:15
And of course,
the vehicle responds safely.
the vehicle responds safely.
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Te naravno,
vozilo odgovara sigurno.
vozilo odgovara sigurno.
12:18
And of course, we have people
who do I don't know what
who do I don't know what
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Te naravno, imamo ljude
koji čine ne znam što
koji čine ne znam što
12:21
sometimes on the road, like this guy
pulling out between two self-driving cars.
pulling out between two self-driving cars.
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ponekad na cesti, poput ovog lika
koji radi škarice između dva samovozeća auta.
koji radi škarice između dva samovozeća auta.
12:24
You have to ask, "What are you thinking?"
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Morate se zapitati: "što im je u glavi?"
12:26
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
12:28
Now, I just fire-hosed you
with a lot of stuff there,
with a lot of stuff there,
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Sad, zatrpao sam vas
ovdje sa puno toga,
ovdje sa puno toga,
12:30
so I'm going to break one of these
down pretty quickly.
down pretty quickly.
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Pa ću preći preko slijedećeg
poprilično brzo,
poprilično brzo,
12:33
So what we're looking at is the scene
with the cyclist again,
with the cyclist again,
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dakle ovdje vidimo scenu
sa biciklistom ponovno,
sa biciklistom ponovno,
12:36
and you might notice in the bottom,
we can't actually see the cyclist yet,
we can't actually see the cyclist yet,
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a mogli biste primijetiti na dnu,
mi zapravo još ne vidimo biciklista
mi zapravo još ne vidimo biciklista
12:39
but the car can: it's that little
blue box up there,
blue box up there,
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Ali auto može: to je ta malena
plava kutija tamo,
plava kutija tamo,
12:42
and that comes from the laser data.
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a to dolazi od laserskih podataka.
12:44
And that's not actually
really easy to understand,
really easy to understand,
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A to zapravo baš i nije
jednostavno shvatiti,
jednostavno shvatiti,
12:46
so what I'm going to do is I'm going
to turn that laser data and look at it,
to turn that laser data and look at it,
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pa je ono što ću učiniti je
uključiti te podatke i pogledati ih,
uključiti te podatke i pogledati ih,
12:50
and if you're really good at looking
at laser data, you can see
at laser data, you can see
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a ako ste zbilja dobri sa gledanjem
u laserske podatke, možete vidjeti
u laserske podatke, možete vidjeti
12:53
a few dots on the curve there,
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nekoliko točaka na krivulji ovdje,
12:54
right there, and that blue box
is that cyclist.
is that cyclist.
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točno ovdje, a ta je
plava kutija taj biciklist.
plava kutija taj biciklist.
12:57
Now as our light is red,
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sad kako je naše svjetlo crveno,
12:58
the cyclist's light
has turned yellow already,
has turned yellow already,
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biciklistu se već
upalilo žuto.
upalilo žuto.
13:00
and if you squint, you can see that
in the imagery.
in the imagery.
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A ako zaškiljite,
možete to i vidjeti u slikama.
možete to i vidjeti u slikama.
13:03
But the cyclist, we see, is going
to proceed through the intersection.
to proceed through the intersection.
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Ali biciklist, vidimo,
će nastaviti kroz križanje.
će nastaviti kroz križanje.
13:06
Our light has now turned green,
his is solidly red,
his is solidly red,
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Nama se sada upalilo zeleno,
njegovo je čisto crveno,
njegovo je čisto crveno,
13:08
and we now anticipate that this bike
is going to come all the way across.
is going to come all the way across.
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te mi sad predviđamo kako će taj
bicikl proći sasvim preko križanja.
bicikl proći sasvim preko križanja.
13:13
Unfortunately the other drivers next to us
were not paying as much attention.
were not paying as much attention.
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Na nesreću ostali vozači
pored nas ne obraćaju baš toliko pažnje.
pored nas ne obraćaju baš toliko pažnje.
13:16
They started to pull forward,
and fortunately for everyone,
and fortunately for everyone,
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Počinju se kretati,
te na sreću za sve,
te na sreću za sve,
13:19
this cyclists reacts, avoids,
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3011
biciklist reagira, izbjegava,
13:22
and makes it through the intersection.
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te prolazi kroz križanje.
13:25
And off we go.
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I eto ga.
13:26
Now, as you can see, we've made
some pretty exciting progress,
some pretty exciting progress,
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Sad, kako možete vidjeti,
napravili smo prilično uzbudljiv napredak,
napravili smo prilično uzbudljiv napredak,
13:29
and at this point we're pretty convinced
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te smo u ovom trenutku prilično uvjereni
13:31
this technology is going
to come to market.
to come to market.
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kako će ova tehnologija
dospjeti na tržište.
dospjeti na tržište.
13:33
We do three million miles of testing
in our simulators every single day,
in our simulators every single day,
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Radimo tri milijuna milja testova
u našim simulatorima svakog dana,
u našim simulatorima svakog dana,
13:38
so you can imagine the experience
that our vehicles have.
that our vehicles have.
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pa možete zamisliti iskustvo
koje naša vozila imaju.
koje naša vozila imaju.
13:41
We are looking forward to having
this technology on the road,
this technology on the road,
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Radujemo se
imati ovu tehnologiju na cesti,
imati ovu tehnologiju na cesti,
13:43
and we think the right path
is to go through the self-driving
is to go through the self-driving
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te mislim kako ispravan put
vodi kroz samovozeći
vodi kroz samovozeći
13:46
rather than driver assistance approach
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prije nego kroz
sustav pomoći vozaču
sustav pomoći vozaču
13:48
because the urgency is so large.
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jer žurba je toliko velika.
13:51
In the time I have given this talk today,
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U vremenu u kojem sam
danas održao ovaj govor,
danas održao ovaj govor,
13:53
34 people have died on America's roads.
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34 ljudi je poginulo na
američkim cestama.
američkim cestama.
13:56
How soon can we bring it out?
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Koliko brzo možemo ovo objelodaniti?
13:59
Well, it's hard to say because
it's a really complicated problem,
it's a really complicated problem,
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Pa, teško je reći stoga
što je to zbilja složen problem,
što je to zbilja složen problem,
14:02
but these are my two boys.
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ali ovo su moja dva klinca.
14:05
My oldest son is 11, and that means
in four and a half years,
in four and a half years,
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Starijem je 11, a to znači
kako će za četiri i pol godine,
kako će za četiri i pol godine,
14:08
he's going to be able
to get his driver's license.
to get his driver's license.
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biti u mogućnosti
steći vlastitu vozačku dozvolu.
steći vlastitu vozačku dozvolu.
14:11
My team and I are committed
to making sure that doesn't happen.
to making sure that doesn't happen.
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Moj tim i ja smo predani
osigurati da se to ne dogodi.
osigurati da se to ne dogodi.
14:14
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
14:16
(Laughter) (Applause)
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(Smijeh) (Pljesak)
14:21
Chris Anderson: Chris,
I've got a question for you.
I've got a question for you.
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Chris Anderson: Chris,
imam pitanje za tebe.
imam pitanje za tebe.
14:23
Chris Urmson: Sure.
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Chris Urmson: Naravno.
14:26
CA: So certainly, the mind of your cars
is pretty mind-boggling.
is pretty mind-boggling.
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CA: Sigurno, um tvojih autiju
je poprilično zapanjujuć.
je poprilično zapanjujuć.
14:30
On this debate between
driver-assisted and fully driverless --
driver-assisted and fully driverless --
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U ovoj debati između
pomoći vozaču i posve bez vozača --
pomoći vozaču i posve bez vozača --
14:34
I mean, there's a real debate
going on out there right now.
going on out there right now.
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Mislim, postoji prava debata
koja se odvija upravo sada.
koja se odvija upravo sada.
14:37
So some of the companies,
for example, Tesla,
for example, Tesla,
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Dakle neke kompanije,
na primjer, Tesla,
na primjer, Tesla,
14:40
are going the driver-assisted route.
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idu putem pomoći vozaču.
14:42
What you're saying is that
that's kind of going to be a dead end
that's kind of going to be a dead end
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Što nam govoriš je kako
će to na neki način biti slijepa ulica
će to na neki način biti slijepa ulica
14:48
because you can't just keep improving
that route and get to fully driverless
that route and get to fully driverless
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stoga što ne možeš samo poboljšavati
po tom putu i doći do rješenja posve bez vozača
po tom putu i doći do rješenja posve bez vozača
14:53
at some point, and then a driver
is going to say, "This feels safe,"
is going to say, "This feels safe,"
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u nekom trenutku, te će onda
vozač reći: "Ovo ulijeva sigurnost"
vozač reći: "Ovo ulijeva sigurnost"
14:57
and climb into the back,
and something ugly will happen.
and something ugly will happen.
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i zavaliti se u naslon,
a tad će se dogoditi nešto ružno.
a tad će se dogoditi nešto ružno.
14:59
CU: Right. No, that's exactly right,
and it's not to say
and it's not to say
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CU: Tako je. Ne, to je upravo to,
i nije kako
i nije kako
15:02
that the driver assistance systems
aren't going to be incredibly valuable.
aren't going to be incredibly valuable.
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će sustavi pomoći vozaču
biti od nevjerojatne vrijednosti.
biti od nevjerojatne vrijednosti.
15:05
They can save a lot of lives
in the interim,
in the interim,
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Oni mogu sačuvati puno života
u međurazdoblju,
u međurazdoblju,
15:08
but to see the transformative opportunity
to help someone like Steve get around,
to help someone like Steve get around,
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ali za vidjeti preobražajne prilike
za pomoć nekome poput Stevea da se kreće,
za pomoć nekome poput Stevea da se kreće,
15:11
to really get to the end case in safety,
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za stvarno doći do završetka priče
o sigurnosti,
o sigurnosti,
15:13
to have the opportunity
to change our cities
to change our cities
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za imati priliku
promijeniti naše gradove
promijeniti naše gradove
15:16
and move parking out and get rid of
these urban craters we call parking lots,
these urban craters we call parking lots,
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i izbaciti parkirana vozila te se riješiti
urbanih kratera - parkirališta,
urbanih kratera - parkirališta,
15:20
it's the only way to go.
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to je jedini pravi put.
15:21
CA: We will be tracking your progress
with huge interest.
with huge interest.
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CA: Pratit ćemo vaš napredak
s ogromnim zanimanjem.
s ogromnim zanimanjem.
15:24
Thanks so much, Chris.
CU: Thank you. (Applause)
CU: Thank you. (Applause)
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Hvala puno, Chris.
CU: Hvala! (Pljesak)
CU: Hvala! (Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Chris Urmson - RoboticistChris Umson is the Director of Self-Driving Cars at Google[x].
Why you should listen
Since 2009, Chris Urmson has headed up Google’s self-driving car program. So far, the team’s vehicles have driven over three quarters of a million miles. While early models included a driverless Prius that TEDsters got to test- ... um, -not-drive in 2011, more and more the team is building vehicles from the ground up, custom-made to go driverless.
Prior to joining Google, Umson was on the faculty of the Robotics Institute at Carnegie Mellon University, where his research focused on motion planning and perception for robotic vehicles. During his time at Carnegie Mellon, he served as Director of Technology for the team that won the 2007 DARPA Urban Challenge.
Chris Urmson | Speaker | TED.com