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TED2004

Steven Levitt: The freakonomics of crack dealing

スティーヴン・レヴィット クラック経済の分析

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「ヤバい経済学」の著者、スティーヴン・レヴィットは麻薬取引の財政面の新しいデータを紹介します。 彼によると、街角のクラックディーラーは一般的に信じられているほどもうかりません。それどころか、収入は最低賃金をも下回り、ボスに殺される恐れがあります。

- Economist
Steven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down. Full bio

You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy,
ご安心ください 私がお話しするのは 自分自身の悲劇ではなく
00:25
but other people's tragedy.
他人の悲劇です
00:30
It's a lot easier to be lighthearted about other people's tragedy than your own,
私達は他人の悲劇に関しては多少楽観的でいられます
00:31
and I want to keep it in the spirit of the conference.
それにこの会議の精神を保ちたいので
00:35
So, if you believe the media accounts,
もし報道記事が真実なら
00:37
being a drug dealer in the height of the crack cocaine epidemic
クラック コカインの流行が最も盛んな時に麻薬の売人であることは
00:42
was a very glamorous life, in the words of Virginia Postrel.
大変華やかな人生だとヴァージニア ポストレルは言いました
00:46
There was money, there was drugs, guns, women,
金 ドラッグ 拳銃 女
00:51
you know, you name it -- jewelry, bling-bling -- it had it all.
派手な宝石も 何でも手に入ります
00:55
What I'm going to tell you today is that, in fact, based on 10 years of research,
今日皆さんにお話するのは 10年に及ぶ実際の調査に基づきます
00:59
a unique opportunity to go inside a gang --
ギャングの中に入って
01:05
to see the actual books, the financial records of the gang --
その財務記録の実態を見るまれな機会を得たことから
01:07
that the answer turns out not to be that being in the gang was a glamorous life.
ギャングとはそんなに華やかな人生ではないと分かりました
01:10
But I think, more realistically, that being in a gang --
それどころか もっと現実的に ギャングであることや
01:16
selling drugs for a gang -- is perhaps the worst job in all of America.
ギャングのために麻薬を売るのは アメリカでも最悪の仕事でしょう
01:19
And that's what I'd like to convince you of today.
それを今日は皆さんに納得していただきます
01:23
So there are three things I want to do.
三つの話をします
01:26
First, I want to explain how and why crack cocaine
最初に クラックがなぜ都内のギャングに
01:27
had such a profound influence on inner-city gangs.
これほど深い影響を及ぼしたかを説明します
01:31
Secondly, I want to tell you how somebody like me
二番目に 僕みたいな奴がなぜ
01:36
came to be able to see the inner workings of a gang.
ギャングの内部を見る事ができたかを話します
01:42
It's an interesting story, I think.
面白い話だと思います
01:46
And then third, I want to tell you, in a very superficial way,
そして三番目は ギャングの財政記録を実際に見て
01:47
about some of the things we found when we actually got to look at
解った事のいくつかを
01:50
the financial records -- the books -- of the gang.
表面的に話します
01:53
So before I do that, just one warning, which is that
その前に 一つ注意をしておきます
01:56
this presentation has been rated 'R' by the Motion Picture Association of America.
このプレゼンテーションは米国映画協会からR指定とされ
02:01
It contains adult themes, adult language.
アダルトテーマやアダルト表現が含まれます
02:06
Given who is up on the stage, you'll be delighted to know that in fact
まあ 僕を見ていただければ わかると思いますが
02:09
there'll be no nudity,
ヌードはありません
02:12
barring a --
まあ
02:13
(Laughter)
(笑)
02:14
-- unexpected wardrobe malfunctions aside.
服がずれ落ちない限り..
02:17
(Laughter)
(笑)
02:19
So let me start by talking about crack cocaine, and how it transformed the gang.
さて クラックとそれがいかにギャングを変えたかについて話しましょう
02:25
And to do that, you have to actually go back to a time before crack cocaine,
クラック コカイン前 80年代初めの
02:30
in the early '80s, and look at it from the perspective of a gang leader.
ギャング リーダーの視点から見ていきます
02:33
So being a gang leader in the inner city wasn't such a bad deal in the mid-'80s.
80年代半ば 都心のギャング リーダーでいることは悪くはありません
02:36
In the early '80s, some would say.
80年代の初めは--
02:43
Now, you had a lot of power, and you got to beat people up --
絶大な権力があって 人に暴力をふるって--
02:44
you got a lot of prestige, a lot of respect.
多くの名声と多くの尊敬
02:47
But there was no money in it, OK?
でもお金持ちではなかった
02:50
The gang had no way to make money.
ギャングはお金を儲ける方法がないのです
02:52
And you couldn't charge dues to the people in the gang,
手下からは徴収できずー
02:54
because the people in the gang didn't have any money.
彼らには金がない
02:56
You couldn't really make any money selling marijuana.
マリファナは儲かりません
02:59
Marijuana's too cheap, it turns out.
マリファナは安すぎたので
03:01
You can't get rich selling marijuana.
お金は儲かりません
03:04
You couldn't sell cocaine.
コカインは売れません
03:06
You know, cocaine's a great product -- powdered cocaine --
粉末コカインは優秀な商品です
03:08
but you've got to know rich white people.
でも金持ちの白人にしか売れず
03:10
And most of the inner-city gang members didn't know any rich white people --
都心のギャング メンバーのほとんどは白人に知り合いがなく
03:12
they couldn't sell to that market.
市場に出られない
03:15
You couldn't really do petty crime, either.
軽犯罪では
03:17
It turns out, petty crime's a terrible way to make a living.
生計が立たない
03:18
So, as a result,
その結果
03:20
as a gang leader, you had, you know, power --
ギャング リーダーは権力があって
03:22
it's a pretty good life --
いい生活ができても
03:25
but the thing was, in the end, you were living at home with your mother.
実家で母親と住んでいます
03:26
And so it wasn't really a career.
それに本当の職業じゃない
03:29
It was something that --
いかに
03:31
it's just there were limits to how powerful and important you could be
権力と影響力があっても
03:32
if you had to live at home with your mother.
母親と一緒ではね...
03:34
Then along comes crack cocaine.
そこでクラックの登場です
03:37
And in the words of Malcolm Gladwell, crack cocaine was the
マルコム グラッドウェルの言葉を借りればクラックは
03:40
extra-chunky version of tomato sauce for the inner city.
都心用のトマトの塊入りトマトソースでした
03:44
(Laughter)
(笑)
03:47
Because crack cocaine was an unbelievable innovation.
クラックは驚くべき革新だったのです
03:49
I don't have time to talk about it today.
これについて話す時間はありません
03:51
But if you think about it, I would say that in the last twenty-five years,
でも 考えてみれば過去25年において
03:53
of every invention or innovation that's occurred in this country,
アメリカでの全ての発明や革新のうち
03:57
the biggest one, in terms of impact on the well-being of people
都心の住人の福祉に一番大きな影響を与えたのが
04:00
who live in the inner city, was crack cocaine.
クラック コカインだと言えます
04:05
And for the worse -- not for the better, but for the worse.
良い影響ではなく 悪い影響
04:07
It had a huge impact on life.
人生への大きな影響
04:10
So what was it about crack cocaine?
ではクラックの魅力とは?
04:11
It was a brilliant way of getting the brain high.
ハイな状態になるには最高の方法です
04:13
Because you could smoke crack cocaine -- you can't smoke powdered cocaine --
粉末コカインと違い クラックコカインは喫煙できます
04:18
and smoking is a much more efficient mechanism at delivering a high
喫煙は鼻から吸い込むよりも効率的に
04:23
than is snorting it.
ハイになれます
04:26
And it turned out, there was this audience that didn't know it wanted crack cocaine,
クラックは求められていたわけでもないのにあっという間に
04:28
but, when it came, it really did.
広まった
04:33
And it was a perfect drug. You could sell for --
売るにも完璧でした
04:35
buy the cocaine that went into it for a dollar, sell it for five dollars.
1ドルで手に入り 5ドルで売れるのです
04:38
Highly addictive -- the high was very short.
中毒度が高く -- ハイ状態の時間がとても短い
04:42
So for fifteen minutes, you get this great high.
15分は 最高の気分です
04:44
And then, when you come down, all you want to do is get high again.
それから気分は落ち込み またハイの状態になりたいと願います
04:47
It created a wonderful market.
最高の市場です
04:51
And for the people who were there running the gang,
ギャングを運営する人にも
04:53
it was a great way, seemingly, to make a lot of money.
お金を儲ける最高の手段に見えました
04:56
At least for the people in the top.
少なくともトップには
04:59
So this is where we enter the picture.
ここで僕達の登場です
05:02
Not really me -- I'm really a bit player in all this.
実は僕はただの端役で 共著者の
05:03
My co-author, Sudhir Venkatesh, is the main character.
スディール ヴェンカテッシュが主役です
05:06
So he was a math major in college who had a good heart,
彼は大学を数学を専攻していた気の良い奴で
05:09
and decided he wanted to get a sociology Ph.D.,
社会学の博士号を習得する事に決めて
05:14
came to the University of Chicago.
シカゴ大学に来ました
05:17
Now, the three months before he came to Chicago, he had spent
シカゴに来る前の3ヶ月は バンドグループ グレイトフル デッドの
05:19
following the Grateful Dead.
追っかけをしており
05:23
And, in his own words, he "looked like a freak."
外見は彼自身の言葉で「まるで気違い」
05:24
He's a South Asian -- very dark-skinned South Asian.
彼は南アジア人 -- とても浅黒い南アジア人です
05:28
Big man, and he had hair, in his words, "down to his ass."
大きな男で 髪は 彼の言葉で「ケツにとどく」
05:32
Defied all kinds of boundaries: Was he black or white? Was he man or woman?
あらゆる境界に挑み 黒人か白人? 男か女?
05:36
He was really a curious sight to be seen.
彼は物珍しい"ひと"でした
05:40
So he showed up at the University of Chicago.
彼はシカゴ大学に現れ
05:43
And the famous sociologist, William Julius Wilson,
そして有名な社会学者 ウイリアムJウィルソンは
05:45
was doing a book that involved surveying people all across Chicago.
シカゴ中の住人の調査に関する本の作成中でした
05:48
And he took one look at Sudhir, who was going to go do some surveys for him,
彼の為に調査を行うことになったスディールを見て
05:54
and decided he knew exactly the place to send him --
調査にぴったりの場所を選びました
05:57
which was to one of the toughest, most notorious housing projects.
最も無法で悪名高い公営団地の1つ
06:00
And not just in Chicago, but in the entire United States.
しかもシカゴだけでなく 米国全域です
06:03
So Sudhir -- the suburban boy who had never really been in the inner city --
スディールは郊外出身で 都心にほとんど縁がなかったのですが
06:05
dutifully took his clipboard and, you know, walked down to this housing project.
まじめに クリップボードを抱え この公営団地へと出向きました
06:09
Gets to the first building.
最初の建物にたどり着き
06:14
The first building? Well, there's nobody there.
最初の建物? そこには誰もいません
06:16
But he hears some voices up in the stairwell, so he climbs up the stairwell.
でも階段の吹き抜けの上から声がしたので階段を登ります
06:19
And he comes around the corner --
角を曲がると
06:24
finds a group of young African-American men playing dice.
若いアフリカ系アメリカ人の男性グループがダイスをしていました
06:25
This is about 1990 -- peak of the crack epidemic.
1990年頃で クラック流行の頂点でした
06:31
This is a very dangerous job, being in a gang -- you don't like to be surprised.
ギャングは危険な仕事なのでー驚かされるのを嫌います
06:34
You don't like to be surprised by people who come around the corner.
角からいきなり驚かされるのは嬉しくない事です
06:37
And the mantra was: shoot first; ask questions later.
まず撃て 質問は後だ がモットーです
06:41
Now, Sudhir was lucky.
スディールはラッキーでした
06:44
He was such a freak --
彼はすごく変人で--
06:45
and that clipboard probably saved his life, because they figured
クリップボードが彼の命を救いました
06:47
no other rival gang member would be coming up to shoot at them with a clipboard.
ギャングはクリップボードで襲撃に来たりはしませんから
06:49
(Laughter)
(笑)
06:52
So his greeting was not particularly warm, but they did say,
歓迎こそしなかったものの 彼らは言いました
06:54
well, OK -- let's hear your questions on your survey.
その調査てぇのを聞いてみようじゃないか
06:58
So, I kid you not, the first question on the survey that he was sent to ask was,
冗談じゃなく 調査のための最初の質問は
07:02
"How do you feel about being poor and black in America?"
「アメリカで
07:07
(Laughter)
貧乏かつ黒人である事をどう感じるか?」(笑)
07:08
Makes you wonder about academics, OK?
学者ってのは
07:13
(Laughter)
(笑)
07:14
So the choice of answers were: very good, good, bad and very bad.
選択できる回答は: 大変良い、良い、悪い、大変悪い
07:16
What Sudhir found out is, in fact, that the real answer was the following --
スディールが実際もらった回答はー
07:24
(Laughter)
(E:クソくらえ)(笑)
07:27
The survey was not, in the end, going to be what got Sudhir off the hook.
調査はスディールを危機に陥れ
07:32
He was held hostage overnight in the stairwell.
彼は階段の吹き抜けで一晩中人質にされました
07:35
There was a lot of gunfire;
多くの発砲があり
07:39
there were a lot of philosophical discussions he had with the gang members.
哲学的議論をメンバーと交わしました
07:40
By morning, the gang leader arrived,
明け方リーダーが
07:44
checked out Sudhir,
スディールを調べ
07:45
decided he was no threat and they let him go home.
彼は脅威ではないと帰しました
07:46
So Sudhir went home. Took a shower, took a nap.
スディールは家でシャワーを浴び昼寝して
07:49
And you and I, probably, faced with the situation, would think,
あなたや僕が こういう目に会ったら多分こう思うでしょう
07:52
well, I guess I'm going to write my dissertation on The Grateful Dead.
卒論はグレイトフルデッドについてにしよう
07:57
I've been following them for the last three months.
3か月も追っかけたし
08:00
(Laughter)
(笑)
08:01
Sudhir, on the other hand, got right back -- walked down to the housing project.
一方スディールは すぐに その公共住宅に戻りました
08:02
Went up to the floor, the second floor, and said: "Hey, guys.
2階に上がって こう言いました 「こんにちは
08:07
I had so much fun hanging out with you last night,
昨晩は楽しかった
08:11
I wonder if I could do it again tonight."
今夜もできないかな」
08:13
And that was the beginning of what turned out to be a beautiful relationship
これは美しい友情の始まりとなって
08:14
that involved Sudhir living in the housing project on and off for 10 years:
スディールは10年にわたり 公共住宅に出入りしました
08:18
hanging out in crack houses, going to jail with the gang members,
クラック密売所でたむろし ギャングと刑務所に入り
08:22
having the car-windows shot out of his car,
車の窓ガラスを撃たれたり
08:27
having the police break into his apartment and steal his computer disks --
彼のアパートに侵入した警察にコンピューターディスクを盗まれたり
08:29
you name it.
ありとあらゆることがありました
08:32
But ultimately, the story has a happy ending for Sudhir,
最終的に物語はハッピーエンドとなり
08:34
who became one of the most respected sociologists in the country.
彼は米国で最も尊敬される社会学者の一人となりました
08:37
And especially for me, as I sat in my office with my Excel spreadsheet open,
オフィスでエクセルを開き 彼がギャングから山のような
08:40
waiting for Sudhir to come and deliver to me the latest load of data
最新情報を仕入れるのを待っていた
08:45
that he would get from the gang.
僕には特に--
08:48
It was one of the most unequal co-authoring relationships ever --
最も不平等な協同著書でしょう
08:54
(Laughter)
(笑)
08:57
-- but I was glad to be the beneficiary of it.
私は受益者側であって光栄でした
08:58
So what do we find? What do we find in the gang? Well, let me say one thing.
さて 僕たちは何を見つけたか?ギャングから何を学んだか? 一つ言わせてください
09:02
We really got access to everybody in the gang.
僕たちはギャングの皆に会い
09:09
We got an inside look at the gang, from the very bottom up to the very top.
内部の底辺からトップまで観察しました
09:13
They trusted Sudhir -- in ways that really no academic has ever --
彼らはスディールを信用し -- 今までに学者が --
09:16
or really anybody, any outsider -- has ever earned the trust of these gangs,
というか外部の誰も --ここまで信用されたものはいません
09:21
to the point where they actually opened up what was most interesting for me:
僕にとって一番興味深い 帳簿
09:26
their books, their financial records that they kept.
財政的な記録を見せてくれるまでにー
09:29
And they made them available to us.
僕たちは
09:32
And we not only could study them, but we could ask them questions about what was in them.
帳簿を借り 調べ 質問もできました
09:33
So if I have to kind of summarize very quickly in the short time I have
ギャングから学んだ事の結論を
09:36
what the sort of bottom line of what I take away from the gang is,
短時間で短くまとめるとすれば
09:41
is that if I had to draw a parallel between the gang and any other organization,
ギャングを他の組織と並行して示すとすれば
09:45
it would be that the gang is just like McDonald's.
ギャングはマクドナルドです
09:50
In a lot of different respects -- the restaurant McDonald's.
様々な点で-
09:54
So first, in one way -- which isn't maybe the most interesting way,
まず最初に--あまり面白くはありませんが
09:56
but it's a good way to start -- is in the way it's organized --
どう組織されているかを見ましょう
09:59
the hierarchy of the gang, the way it looks.
ギャングの階層を
10:02
So here's what the org chart of the gang looks like.
これがギャングの組織図です
10:04
I don't know if any of you know very much about org charts,
組織図はご存知ですか?
10:07
but if you were to assign a stripped-down and simplified McDonald's org chart,
マクドナルドの組織図を解体し単純化すると
10:09
this is exactly what the org chart would look like.
全く同じ組織図になります
10:12
Now, it's amazing, but the top level of the gang,
驚くべきことに ギャングのトップたちは
10:15
they actually call themselves the "board of directors."
彼ら自身をまさに「取締役員」と呼びます
10:18
(Laughter)
(笑)
10:20
And Sudhir says it's not like these guys had a very sophisticated kind of view
スディール曰く「彼らにアメリカの企業についての
10:21
of like, what happened in American corporate life.
教養があるわけではなく
10:28
But they had seen movies like "Wall Street," and they kind of had learned
「ウォール街」のような映画を観て
10:30
a little bit about what it was like to be in the real world.
実体社会を学んだ為でしょう」
10:33
Now, below that board of directors, you've got essentially what are regional VPs --
その取締役会の下で 基本的に地域のVPがいます-
10:38
people who control, say, the south side of Chicago, or the west side of Chicago.
言わばシカゴの南側や 西側を治める人
10:42
Now, Sudhir got to know very well the guy who had the unfortunate assignment
スディールはアイオワ州のフランチャイズを取る事を
10:45
of trying to take the Iowa franchise.
不幸にも任命された人と仲良くなります
10:49
(Laughter)
(笑)
10:51
Which, it turned out, for this black gang, was not one of the more brilliant
それは 黒人ギャングが請け負った中でも
10:52
financial endeavors that they undertook.
財政面での努力の実らない場所でした
10:56
(Laughter)
(笑)
10:58
But the thing that really makes the gang seem like McDonald's is its franchisees.
しかしギャングとマクドナルドの似た点はそのフランチャイズ手法です
10:59
That the guys who are running, you know, the local gangs --
経営者である地方ギャングは
11:04
the four-square-block by four-square-block areas --
4街区ごとを取り仕切ります
11:08
they're just like the guys, in some sense, who are running the McDonald's.
彼らはある意味マクドナルドの店長で
11:11
They are the entrepreneurs.
起業家です
11:14
They get the exclusive property rights to control the drug-selling.
麻薬売買の特別な財産権を得て
11:16
They get the name of the gang behind them, for merchandising and marketing.
背後にいるギャング名で販売促進や市場開拓をします
11:20
And they're the ones who basically make the profit or lose a profit,
経営次第で儲け 損をするのは
11:27
depending on how good they are at running the business.
基本的には彼らなのです
11:30
Now, the group I really want you to think about, though, are the ones at the bottom,
さて皆さんに本当に考えていただきたいのは底辺の
11:32
the foot soldiers.
歩兵たちです
11:36
These are the teenagers, typically,
主に10代で
11:38
who'd be standing out on the street corner, selling the drugs.
街角でドラッグを売る--
11:40
Extremely dangerous work.
大変危険です
11:43
And important to note that almost all of the weight, all of the people
大切なのは組織のほぼ皆かなりの割合が 底辺に
11:46
in this organization are at the bottom.
属する事
11:51
OK, just like McDonald's.
そうです まるでマクドナルド
11:52
So in some sense, the foot soldiers are a lot like the people
歩兵たちは マクドナルドで注文を取る人と
11:54
who are taking your order at McDonald's.
同じだといえます
11:57
And indeed, it's not just by chance that they're like them.
彼らが似ているのは偶然ではなく
11:59
In fact, in these neighborhoods, they'd be the same people.
この界隈では 同一人物なのです
12:01
So the same kids who are working in the gang were actually --
ギャングの為に働いている子供の大半は
12:03
at the very same time, they would typically be working part-time
同時にマクドナルドのような場所で
12:07
at a place like McDonald's.
アルバイトしています
12:10
Which already, I think, foreshadows the main result that I've talked about,
先程の話 ギャングが
12:12
about what a crappy job it was being in the gang.
儲からないという証明です
12:15
Because obviously, if being in the gang were such a wonderful, lucrative job,
ギャングが素晴しく儲かる仕事だったら
12:18
why in the world would these guys moonlight at McDonald's?
マクドナルドでアルバイトしますか?
12:21
So what do the wages look like? So you might be surprised.
では 収入はいくらか? 驚くなかれ
12:25
But based on the actual --
実際
12:28
you know, being able to talk to them, and to see their records,
彼らと話し 記録を見て
12:29
this is what it looks like in terms of the wages.
彼らの収入とは
12:32
The hourly wage the foot soldiers were earning was $3.50 in an hour.
歩兵の場合は時給3.5ドルです
12:34
It was below the minimum wage, OK? And this is well documented.
最低賃金を下回りますね? 文書で裏付けできます
12:38
It's easy to see, by the patterns of consumption they have.
消費のパターンからも簡単に読み取れます
12:42
It really is not fiction -- it's fact.
作り事ではなく 事実です
12:44
There was very little money in the gang, especially at the bottom.
ギャングは お金持ちではない 特に底辺は
12:47
Now if you managed to rise up -- say, and be that local leader,
もし 地域のリーダーになれたとしても
12:51
the guy who's the equivalent of the McDonald's franchisee --
マクドナルドの店長と同等です
12:55
you'd be making 100,000 dollars a year.
一年での稼ぎは10万ドル
12:57
And that, in some ways, was the best job you could hope to get
それが期待できる最高の仕事です
12:59
if you were growing up in one of these neighborhoods as a young black male.
もし それらの界隈で育った黒人男性なら
13:03
If you managed to rise to the very top,
トップになれば
13:06
200,000 or 400,000 dollars a year is what you'd hope to make.
20万から40万ドルは期待でき
13:08
Truly, you would be a great success story.
成功者と言われます
13:11
And one of the sad parts of this is that indeed, among the many other ramifications
クラックが及ぼす多くの影響で嘆かわしいのは
13:14
of crack cocaine is that the most talented individuals in these communities --
これらの地域社会の最も有能な個人が その為に
13:19
this is what they were striving for.
努力する事です
13:24
They weren't trying to make it in legitimate ways,
彼らは合法的な方法で成功しようとはしません
13:25
because there were no legitimate channels out.
それでは抜け出せない
13:28
This was the best way out.
これが最高の抜け道です
13:30
And it actually was the right choice, probably, to try to make it out -- this way.
そして実際 これは 正しい選択でしょう
13:32
You look at this --
見て下さい
13:37
the relationship to McDonald's breaks down here.
マクドナルドとの関係はここで崩れます
13:40
The money looks about the same.
収入は同じに見えます
13:43
Why is it such a bad job?
なぜそんなに酷い仕事か?
13:44
Well, the reason it's such a bad job is that there's somebody
それは いつも銃で
13:46
shooting at you a lot of the time.
襲われるから
13:49
So, with shooting at you, what are the death rates?
死亡率はというと?
13:51
We found in our gang -- and, admittedly, this was not really
調査したギャングでは -- これは普通でない
13:54
sort of a standard situation;
状況下でした
13:57
this was a time of intense violence -- of a lot of gang wars --
激しい武力衝突や ギャングの戦争があり
13:59
as this gang actually became quite successful. But there were costs.
このギャングは結構成功したのですが 犠牲を伴いました
14:03
And so the death rate -- not to mention the rate of being arrested,
僕らの取った死亡率は
14:07
sent to prison, being wounded -- the death rate in our sample
--逮捕され率 刑務所送り 怪我した率を含め--
14:12
was seven percent per person per year.
年間一人当たり7%です
14:16
You're in the gang for four years; you expect to die with about a 25 percent likelihood.
ギャングになって4年目なら 死ぬ確率は25%です
14:19
That is about as high as you can get.
これがほぼ最高率でしょう
14:25
So for comparison's purposes, let's think about some other walk of life
比較のため 他の生き方を見てみましょう
14:27
where you may expect might be extremely risky.
死ぬ確率が高いと思われる
14:32
Like let's say that you were a murderer
殺人者なら
14:34
and you were convicted of murder, and you're sent to death row.
有罪となり 死刑囚監房行きです
14:36
It turns out, the death rates on death row --
死刑囚の処刑を含む
14:39
from all causes, including execution -- two percent a year.
全ての原因による死亡率は1年につき2%です
14:41
(Laughter)
(笑)
14:44
So it's a lot safer being on death row than it is selling drugs out on the street.
死刑囚監房にいる方が 街頭でドラッグを売るより安全なのです
14:45
That makes you pause -- gives you some pause -- those of you who believe
これは 死刑制度が犯罪の抑止になると
14:52
that a death penalty's going to have an enormous deterrent effect on crime.
信じる人に再考させることでしょう
14:55
Now to give you a sense of just how bad the inner city was during crack --
悪い面を強調しているわけではないのですが
14:59
and I'm not really focusing on the negatives,
クラック時代の都心の酷さは--
15:04
but really, there's another story to tell you there --
別の話になりますが--
15:07
if you look at the death rates --
米国の都心で
15:10
just of random, young black males growing up in the inner city in the United States --
育つ黒人男性の死亡率を無作為にみると--
15:11
the death rates during crack were about one percent.
クラック時代は約1%
15:16
That's extremely high.
これは大変高いです
15:19
And this is violent death -- it's unbelievable, in some sense.
変死の死亡率です 信じられない数字です
15:20
To put it into perspective, if you compare this to the soldiers in Iraq,
全体像で見ると 例えばイラク戦争で
15:23
for instance, right now fighting the war: 0.5 percent.
現在の戦っている兵士の死亡率は 0.5%
15:28
So in some very literal way, the young black men who were growing up
文字通り この国で育つ若い黒人男性は
15:32
in this country were living in a war zone, very much in the sense of
イラク戦争で戦っている兵士達と
15:36
the way that the soldiers over in Iraq are fighting in a war.
同じような前線で暮らしているのです
15:40
So why in the world, you might ask, would anybody be willing to stand out
こう尋ねたくなるでしょう
15:46
on a street corner selling drugs for $3.50 an hour,
いったい誰が 4年の間に25%の死亡率で
15:52
with a 25 percent chance of dying over the next four years?
時給3.5ドルでドラッグなんか売るんだ?
15:55
Why would they do that? And I think there are a couple answers.
なぜ彼らはそうするか? 二つほど理由があります
15:58
I think the first one is that they got fooled by history.
最初の理由は歴史に振り回されていることだと思います
16:03
It used to be the gang was a rite of passage.
ギャングが通過儀礼であったということ
16:09
That the young people controlled the gang -- that, as you got older,
ギャングを取り仕切る若者が ある年齢になると
16:11
you dropped out of the gang.
ギャングをやめる
16:14
So what happened was,
では何が起こったか
16:17
the people who happened to be in the right place at the right time --
適時適所に居合わせた人が
16:18
the people who happened to be leading the gang in the mid- to late '80s --
たまたま80年代の終わりにギャングを取り仕切っていて
16:21
became very, very wealthy.
大変金持ちになった
16:27
And so the logical thing to think was that: "Well, the next generation --
論理的な考えとしては 次世代は
16:29
so they're going to age out of the gang, like everybody else has,
「歳をとれば彼らはいずれ引退し
16:33
and the next generation is going to take over and get the wealth."
次世代が引き継ぎ財産も受け継ぐ」
16:35
So there are striking similarities, I think, to the Internet boom, right?
インターネットブームと驚くほど似ていませんか?
16:38
The first set of people in Silicon Valley got very, very rich.
シリコンバレーの最初のグループはかなり裕福になり
16:41
And then all of my friends said: "Maybe I should go do that, too."
そして友人の誰もがこう言います「僕も同じ事しようかな」
16:45
And they were willing to work very cheap, for stock options that never came.
彼らは安い給料でも仕事を引き受け 期待した富にはたどり着きません
16:49
In some sense, that's what happened, exactly, to the set of people
ある意味 ギャングの下っ端から始めようという人にも
16:54
we were looking at, is that they were willing to start at the bottom.
全く同じ事が起こったといえます
16:59
Just like, say, a lawyer at a law firm --
言わば法律事務所の下っ端弁護士のように
17:01
a first-year lawyer is wiling to start at the bottom,
1年目は意気込みます
17:05
work 80-hour weeks for not that much money,
共同経営者になる為
17:07
because they think they're going to make partner.
週80時間 低賃金で
17:08
But what happened was, the rules changed, and they never got to make partner.
実際には 規則が変わり経営者になれません
17:10
Indeed, the same people who were running all of the major gangs in the late 1980s
1980年代後期に大手のギャングを仕切っていた人物が
17:14
are still running the major gangs in Chicago today.
今もシカゴを仕切っているのです
17:17
They never passed on any of the wealth.
財産も譲らない
17:20
So everybody got stuck at that $3.50-an-hour job, and it turned out to be a disaster.
だから皆時給3.5ドルの仕事から抜け出せず 大変です
17:22
The other thing the gang was very, very good at was marketing and trickery.
ギャングが得意なものにマーケティングと詐欺があります
17:28
And so for instance, one thing the gang would do is --
例えば ギャングがやることにはー
17:32
you know, the gang leaders would have big entourages,
大勢の取り巻きがいるボスは
17:36
and they'd drive fancy cars and have fancy jewelry.
お洒落な車に乗り派手なアクセサリーを身につける
17:38
So what Sudhir eventually realized, as he hung out with them more,
スディールが彼らと一緒に行動して気付いたことは
17:41
is that, really, they didn't own those cars.
ギャングはこれらの車を所有しておらず
17:44
They just leased them -- because they couldn't afford to own the fancy cars.
借り物です -彼らにはお洒落な車など買える余裕はなく
17:46
And they didn't really have gold jewelry -- they had gold-plated jewelry.
金の装身具は 全て金メッキ
17:50
It goes back to, you know, the real-real versus the fake-real.
正真正銘の本物に対して偽の本物
17:53
And really, they did all sorts of things to trick the young people
若者が ギャング人生が素晴しいと信じるよう
17:57
into thinking what a great deal the gang was going to be.
トリックの全てを駆使して
18:01
So for instance, they would give a 14-year-old kid --
例えば 彼らは14歳の子供に
18:03
they'd give him a whole, you know, roll of bills to hold.
丸めた札束を握らせたり
18:06
That 14-year-old kid would say: "Oh, well ..."
その子は友達に
18:10
You know, he would say to his friends,
こう言います
18:12
"Hey, look at all the money I got in the gang."
「ギャングにもらったんだ」
18:13
It wasn't his money, until he spent it. And then essentially
それは使うまでは彼のお金ではなく・・
18:15
he was in debt to the gang, and was sort of an indentured servant for a while.
そして借金となり しばらく年季奉公となります
18:18
So I have a couple minutes.
あと数分あるので
18:20
Let me do one last thing
最後に
18:23
I hadn't thought I'd have time to do, which is to talk about
ギャングを調査することで学んだ
18:25
what we learned, more generally, about economics from the study of the gang.
一般的な経済学についてお話します
18:29
So economists tend to talk in technical words.
経済学者は専門用語で語り
18:34
Often, our theories fail quite miserably when we go to the data.
理論がしばしばデータと相反します
18:38
But actually, what's kind of interesting is that in this setting
でも実際 興味深いのは この設定は
18:41
it turned out that some of the economic theories that worked not so well
実体経済に当てはまらなかった経済学の理論が
18:44
in the real economy worked very well in the drug economy --
ドラック経済にうまく当てはまる事です
18:48
in some sense because it's unfettered capitalism.
ある意味 純粋な資本主義だからです
18:50
Here's an economic principle.
経済学の原則に
18:53
This is one of the basic ideas in labor economics, called a "compensating differential."
労働経済学の基本的な考えの一つ 「補償格差」があります
18:54
It's the idea that basically, the increment to wages that a worker requires
基本的に 労働者に賃金を多めに支払うことで
18:58
to leave him indifferent between performing two tasks --
二つの仕事を平等に近づけ 不快な仕事の
19:02
one which is more unpleasant than the other --
埋め合わせを
19:05
that's what you call a "compensating differential."
するものです
19:06
It's why we think garbage men might be paid more than people who work in parks, OK?
ゴミ回収員は公園で働く人より高い賃金を支払われる--
19:08
So in the words of one of the members of the gang I think makes this clear.
ギャングの一員の話 これを明白に語ります
19:12
So it turns out -- I'm sort of getting ahead of myself.
僕は少々先走りしすぎたようです
19:18
It turns out, in the gang, when there's a war going on,
ギャングは 闘争中に
19:20
that they actually pay the foot soldiers twice as much money.
歩兵に2倍の金額を支払います
19:24
It's exactly this concept.
まさに 同じ概念です
19:27
Because they're not willing to be at risk.
危険にさらされるのは嫌なものです
19:28
And the words of a gang member capture it quite nicely.
ギャングはこれを上手く表現します
19:31
He says, "Would you stand around here when all this shit" -- that means shooting --
「こんなヤバい(撃ち合い)中 立ってられっか?」
19:34
"if all this shit's going on? No, right?
タマに当たるだろ
19:37
So if I going to be asked to put my life on the line, then front me the cash, man."
それで 命はれって言われちゃ 前金もらわなきゃね」
19:39
So essentially, I think the gang member says it much more articulately
元来 ギャングは何か起きているかを
19:42
than does the economist, about what's going on.
経済学者よりもはっきりと言います
19:44
(Laughter)
(笑)
19:46
Here's another one.
別の例で
19:50
So economists talk about game theory --
経済学者は言います
19:51
that every two-person game has a Nash equilibrium.
二人用ゲームにはナッシュ均衡がある
19:52
Here's the translation you get from the gang member.
ギャングメンバーの言葉を借りると
19:55
They're talking about the decision of why they don't go shoot --
彼らが銃を撃たないと決めた理由は -
19:58
one thing that turns out to be a great business tactic in the gang,
ギャングのすぐれたビジネス戦術の一つ
20:02
if you go and just shoot in the air -- just shoot guns in the other gang's territory --
他のギャング領土で 銃を空中に撃てば
20:05
all the people are afraid to go buy their drugs there.
人は そこへドラッグを買いに行くことを恐れ
20:09
They're going to come into your neighborhood.
あなたのシマで買う
20:11
But here's what he says about why they don't do that.
しかし 彼らはそうしません 理由はこうです
20:12
He says, "If we start shooting around there," -- in the other gang's territory -- "nobody,
「俺らがやつらのシマで撃ち始めたらどうなる
20:15
and, I mean, you dig it, nobody, going to step on their turf.
そんなことしてみろよ
20:18
But we gotta be careful,
あいつらもここに来て
20:21
because they can shoot around here, too, and then we all fucked."
撃ったら大変じゃん」
20:22
(Laughter)
(笑)
20:24
So that's exactly the same concept.
全く同じ概念です
20:25
But then, again, sometimes economists get it wrong.
でも経済学者も間違うことがあります
20:27
So one thing we observed in the data is that it looked like, in terms of ...
データを観察して一つ分かったのが
20:29
The gang leader always got paid, OK?
ギャングのリーダーには常に収入があること
20:35
No matter how bad it was economically, he always got himself paid.
どんなに悪い経済状態でも 常に自分に給料を払います
20:39
So we had some theories related to cash flow,
現金の流れや資本市場への
20:43
and lack of access to capital markets, and things like that.
アクセス不足の理論があるので
20:45
But then we asked the gang member,
ギャングの一員に
20:47
"Well, why is it you always get paid, and your workers don't always get paid?"
「なぜ 自分はいつも給料があって 部下にはなかったりするの?」と聞くと
20:48
His response is, "You got all these niggers below you who want your job, you dig?
「あいつらみんな 俺の地位を狙ってんだぜ
20:51
If you start taking losses, they see you as weak and shit."
負けを認めたら見くびられるぜ」
20:55
And I thought about it, and I said,
私は考えました
20:59
"CEOs often pay themselves million-dollar bonuses,
「CEOは しばしば自身に100万ドルのボーナスを与える
21:01
even when companies are losing a lot of money.
会社が大損してても
21:05
And it never would really occur to an economist that this idea of 'weak and shit'
でも”見くびられる”という思考の重要性は経済学者には
21:07
could really be important."
思いもつかない」
21:11
But maybe -- maybe "weak and shit" --
しかし「見くびられる」というのは
21:12
maybe "weak and shit" is an important hypothesis that needs more analysis.
もっと分析すべき重要な仮説かもしれません
21:19
Thank you very much.
ありがとうございました
21:21

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About the speaker:

Steven Levitt - Economist
Steven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down.

Why you should listen

With his 2005 book Freakonomics (co-authored with Stephen Dubner, a writer who profiled him for the New York Times), Steven Levitt carried hardcore economic method into the squishy real world and produced a pop-culture classic. Freakonomics is both an economics textbook and a series of cautionary tales about the fallacy of conventional wisdom. Levitt examines the links between real-world events, and finds many instances where the data simply doesn't back up popular belief.

He asks provocative questions: If selling crack is so lucrative, why do dealers live with their mothers? Does parental doting really improve children's test scores? Did New York City's crime rate really drop because of police tactics (or population trends)? His controversial answers stir debate, and sometimes backlash.

Read Steven Levitt's Reddit AMA >>

More profile about the speaker
Steven Levitt | Speaker | TED.com