TED2004
Steven Levitt: The freakonomics of crack dealing
Steven Levitt analizira ekonomiju crack-a
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Readability: 3.2
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Autor "freakonomist" Steven Levitt nam prikazuje nove informacije o financijama dilera droge. Različito od popularnog mita, kako on kaže, biti kvartovski diler nije unosan posao. Plaća je ispod minimalca, a šef te može ubiti.
Steven Levitt - Economist
Steven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down. Full bio
Steven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy,
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Biti ćete sretni znati da neću pričati o svojoj tragediji,
00:30
but other people's tragedy.
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već o tragediji drugih ljudi.
00:31
It's a lot easier to be lighthearted about other people's tragedy than your own,
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Puno je lakše biti vedar pričajući o tuđoj nesreći, nego o svojoj,
00:35
and I want to keep it in the spirit of the conference.
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a ja želim očuvati pozitivan naboj ove konferencije.
00:37
So, if you believe the media accounts,
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Ako vjerujete medijskom izvještavanju,
00:42
being a drug dealer in the height of the crack cocaine epidemic
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biti diler droge u srcu epidemije crack-kokaina
00:46
was a very glamorous life, in the words of Virginia Postrel.
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je bio luksuzan život, po riječima Virginie Postrel.
00:51
There was money, there was drugs, guns, women,
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Bilo je novca, droge, pištolja, žena,
00:55
you know, you name it -- jewelry, bling-bling -- it had it all.
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znate, samo nabrajajte -- nakit, bling-bling -- bilo je svega.
00:59
What I'm going to tell you today is that, in fact, based on 10 years of research,
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Što ću vam ja danas reći je temeljeno na 10 godina istraživanja,
01:05
a unique opportunity to go inside a gang --
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jedinstvenoj prilici ući unutar bande --
01:07
to see the actual books, the financial records of the gang --
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vidjeti prave knjige, poslovne knjige bandi --
01:10
that the answer turns out not to be that being in the gang was a glamorous life.
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koji govore da biti u bandi nije bio luksuzan život.
01:16
But I think, more realistically, that being in a gang --
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Ja mislim, realno, da biti u bandi --
01:19
selling drugs for a gang -- is perhaps the worst job in all of America.
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prodavati drogu za bandu -- je možda najgori posao u cijeloj Americi.
01:23
And that's what I'd like to convince you of today.
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I to je ono u što bih vas htio uvjeriti danas.
01:26
So there are three things I want to do.
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Imam tri stvari koje želim učiniti.
01:27
First, I want to explain how and why crack cocaine
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Prvo, želim objasniti kako i zašto je crack kokain
01:31
had such a profound influence on inner-city gangs.
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imao tako dubok utjecaj na bande geta.
01:36
Secondly, I want to tell you how somebody like me
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Drugo, želim vam reći kako je netko poput mene
01:42
came to be able to see the inner workings of a gang.
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dobio priliku vidjeti unutrašnjost posla bandi.
01:46
It's an interesting story, I think.
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To je interesantna priča, mislim.
01:47
And then third, I want to tell you, in a very superficial way,
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I onda treće, želim vam reći, vrlo površnim načinom
01:50
about some of the things we found when we actually got to look at
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o nekim drugim stvarima koje smo otkrili kada smo pogledali
01:53
the financial records -- the books -- of the gang.
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poslovne knjige -- knjige -- bandi.
01:56
So before I do that, just one warning, which is that
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Pa, prije nego to napravim, jedno upozorenje, a to je da je
02:01
this presentation has been rated 'R' by the Motion Picture Association of America.
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ova prezentacija ocjenjena sa "R" od strane američkog Udruženja za igrani film.
02:06
It contains adult themes, adult language.
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Sadrži teme za odrasle, rječnik odraslih.
02:09
Given who is up on the stage, you'll be delighted to know that in fact
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Sad kada znate tko je na pozornici, biti ćete oduševljeni saznanjem
02:12
there'll be no nudity,
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da neće biti golotinje,
02:13
barring a --
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osim --
02:14
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:17
-- unexpected wardrobe malfunctions aside.
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-- neočekivanih promjena u garderobi.
02:19
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:25
So let me start by talking about crack cocaine, and how it transformed the gang.
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Početi ću pričati o crack kokainu, i kako je promijenio bande.
02:30
And to do that, you have to actually go back to a time before crack cocaine,
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I da bih to napravio, morati ćete se vratiti u vrijeme prije crack kokaina,
02:33
in the early '80s, and look at it from the perspective of a gang leader.
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u rane 80-te i pogledati na to iz perspektive vođe bande.
02:36
So being a gang leader in the inner city wasn't such a bad deal in the mid-'80s.
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Biti vođa bande u getu i nije bila tako loša pozicija sredinom 80-ih.
02:43
In the early '80s, some would say.
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Ranih 80-ih, neki bi rekli.
02:44
Now, you had a lot of power, and you got to beat people up --
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Imaš moć i moraš pretući neke ljude --
02:47
you got a lot of prestige, a lot of respect.
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imaš prestiž, puno poštivanja.
02:50
But there was no money in it, OK?
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Ali u tome nije bilo novaca, OK?
02:52
The gang had no way to make money.
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Banda nije imala načina kako zaraditi novac.
02:54
And you couldn't charge dues to the people in the gang,
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I nisu mogli naplaćivati dugove od članova unutar bande,
02:56
because the people in the gang didn't have any money.
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jer članovi bande nisu imali novce.
02:59
You couldn't really make any money selling marijuana.
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Niste mogli zaraditi novce prodavajući marihuanu.
03:01
Marijuana's too cheap, it turns out.
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Marihuana je prejeftina, ispada.
03:04
You can't get rich selling marijuana.
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Ne možete se obogatiti prodavajući marihuanu.
03:06
You couldn't sell cocaine.
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Niste mogli prodati kokain.
03:08
You know, cocaine's a great product -- powdered cocaine --
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Kokain je odličan prozivod -- kokain u prahu --
03:10
but you've got to know rich white people.
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ali morate znati bogate bijelce.
03:12
And most of the inner-city gang members didn't know any rich white people --
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A većina getovskih članova bandi nije znala niti jednog bogatog bijelca --
03:15
they couldn't sell to that market.
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nisu mogli prodavati na tom tržištu.
03:17
You couldn't really do petty crime, either.
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Niste mogli raditi niti sitni kriminal.
03:18
It turns out, petty crime's a terrible way to make a living.
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Ispada, sitni kriminal je grozan način zarade za preživjeti.
03:20
So, as a result,
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Za rezultat,
03:22
as a gang leader, you had, you know, power --
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kao vođa bande, imali ste moć.
03:25
it's a pretty good life --
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To je prilično dobar život.
03:26
but the thing was, in the end, you were living at home with your mother.
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Ali problem je što ste na kraju živjeli doma sa majkom.
03:29
And so it wasn't really a career.
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A to i nije bila baš neka karijera.
03:31
It was something that --
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To je bilo nešto što --
03:32
it's just there were limits to how powerful and important you could be
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je samo pokazivalo gdje su granice tome kako moćni i važni možete biti
03:34
if you had to live at home with your mother.
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ako morate živjeti doma sa majkom.
03:37
Then along comes crack cocaine.
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Onda dolazi crack kokain.
03:40
And in the words of Malcolm Gladwell, crack cocaine was the
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Prema riječima Malcolma Gladwella, crack kokain je bio
03:44
extra-chunky version of tomato sauce for the inner city.
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ekstra kalorična verzija umaka od rajčice za geto.
03:47
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
03:49
Because crack cocaine was an unbelievable innovation.
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Jer je crack kokain bio nevjerojatna inovacija.
03:51
I don't have time to talk about it today.
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Nemam vremena pričati o tome danas.
03:53
But if you think about it, I would say that in the last twenty-five years,
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Ali, ako razmislite o tome, rekao bih da u zadnjih 25 godina,
03:57
of every invention or innovation that's occurred in this country,
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od bilo kojeg izuma ili inovacije koji su se pojavili u ovoj državi,
04:00
the biggest one, in terms of impact on the well-being of people
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najveća, u odnosima utjecaja na dobrobit ljudi
04:05
who live in the inner city, was crack cocaine.
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koji žive u getu jest crack kokain.
04:07
And for the worse -- not for the better, but for the worse.
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Utjecaju na loše -- ne na dobro -- već na loše.
04:10
It had a huge impact on life.
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Imalo je ogroman utjecaj na život.
04:11
So what was it about crack cocaine?
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O čemu se zapravo radi kad govorimo o crack kokainu?
04:13
It was a brilliant way of getting the brain high.
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Bio je to odličan način za ušlagirati se.
04:18
Because you could smoke crack cocaine -- you can't smoke powdered cocaine --
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Zato što ste mogli pušiti crack -- niste mogli pušiti kokain u prahu --
04:23
and smoking is a much more efficient mechanism at delivering a high
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a pušenje je puno efikasniji način dolaska do ušlagiranosti
04:26
than is snorting it.
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nego šmrkanje.
04:28
And it turned out, there was this audience that didn't know it wanted crack cocaine,
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Pokazalo se da je postojala publika koja nije znala da želi crack kokain,
04:33
but, when it came, it really did.
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ali, kada je došao, saznala je da ga stvarno želi.
04:35
And it was a perfect drug. You could sell for --
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Bio ja savršena droga
04:38
buy the cocaine that went into it for a dollar, sell it for five dollars.
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kupiti kokain koji ide u njega za dolar, pa ga prodati za pet dolara.
04:42
Highly addictive -- the high was very short.
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Stvara veliku ovisnost -- ušlagiranost je bila kratka.
04:44
So for fifteen minutes, you get this great high.
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Petnaest minuta si super ušlagiran.
04:47
And then, when you come down, all you want to do is get high again.
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A onda, kada ušlagiranost prestane, sve što želiš jest ponovo se ušlagirati.
04:51
It created a wonderful market.
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Napravilo je odlično tržište.
04:53
And for the people who were there running the gang,
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A za ljude koji su vodili bande,
04:56
it was a great way, seemingly, to make a lot of money.
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to je bio odličan način da naizgled zarade mnogo novaca.
04:59
At least for the people in the top.
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Barem za ljude na vrhu.
05:02
So this is where we enter the picture.
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Tu ulazimo u ovu priču.
05:03
Not really me -- I'm really a bit player in all this.
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Ne ja -- ja stvarno igram malu ulogu u svemu ovome.
05:06
My co-author, Sudhir Venkatesh, is the main character.
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Moj suradnik, Sudhir Venkatesh, je glavni glumac.
05:09
So he was a math major in college who had a good heart,
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On je matematičar, dobra je osoba,
05:14
and decided he wanted to get a sociology Ph.D.,
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i odlučio je da želi doktorirati sociologiju.
05:17
came to the University of Chicago.
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Došao je na Sveučilište u Chicagu.
05:19
Now, the three months before he came to Chicago, he had spent
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Tri mjeseca prije nego što je došao u Chicago proveo je
05:23
following the Grateful Dead.
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prateći The Greatful Dead.
05:24
And, in his own words, he "looked like a freak."
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Kako zna sebe opisati, izgledao je kao "freak".
05:28
He's a South Asian -- very dark-skinned South Asian.
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Podrijetlom je iz južne Azije -- vrlo tamnoputi južno Azijac.
05:32
Big man, and he had hair, in his words, "down to his ass."
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Veliki čovjek, imao je dugu kosu, kako on kaže "do stražnjice".
05:36
Defied all kinds of boundaries: Was he black or white? Was he man or woman?
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Prkosio je svim granicama: Je li bijelac ili crnac? Je li muško ili žensko?
05:40
He was really a curious sight to be seen.
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Bio je zanimljiv prizor za gledati.
05:43
So he showed up at the University of Chicago.
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I tako se pojavio na Sveučilištu u Chicagu.
05:45
And the famous sociologist, William Julius Wilson,
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Poznati sociolog, William Julius Wilson,
05:48
was doing a book that involved surveying people all across Chicago.
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je pisao knjigu koja je uključivala anketiranje ljudi iz cijelog Chicaga.
05:54
And he took one look at Sudhir, who was going to go do some surveys for him,
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I pogledao je Sudhira, koji je krenuo prikupiti neke ankete za njega,
05:57
and decided he knew exactly the place to send him --
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i odlučio da zna točno mjesto gdje će ga poslati --
06:00
which was to one of the toughest, most notorious housing projects.
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a to je u jednan od najtežih, najozloglašenijih kvartova.
06:03
And not just in Chicago, but in the entire United States.
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Ne samo u Chicagu, već u cijelim Sjedinjenim Američkim Državama.
06:05
So Sudhir -- the suburban boy who had never really been in the inner city --
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Tako je Sudhir -- prigradski dečko koji nikada nije bio u getu --
06:09
dutifully took his clipboard and, you know, walked down to this housing project.
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pokorno uzeo svoju fasciklu i otišao u taj kvart.
06:14
Gets to the first building.
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Došao je do prve zgrade.
06:16
The first building? Well, there's nobody there.
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Prva zgrada? Pa, nema nikoga ovdje.
06:19
But he hears some voices up in the stairwell, so he climbs up the stairwell.
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Ali čuje nekakve glasove na stepenicama, pa se popne uz stepenice.
06:24
And he comes around the corner --
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Dođe kraj kuta --
06:25
finds a group of young African-American men playing dice.
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pronađe grupu mladih Afroameriknaca kako bacaju kockice.
06:31
This is about 1990 -- peak of the crack epidemic.
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Ovo je bilo negdje 1990 -- na vrhuncu crack epidemije.
06:34
This is a very dangerous job, being in a gang -- you don't like to be surprised.
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Ovo je jako opasan posao, kada ste u bandi -- ne želite biti iznenađeni.
06:37
You don't like to be surprised by people who come around the corner.
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Ne želite biti iznenađeni ljudima koji iskoče iza ugla.
06:41
And the mantra was: shoot first; ask questions later.
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A mantra je bila: prvo pucaj, pa onda postavljaj pitanja.
06:44
Now, Sudhir was lucky.
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Sudhir je imao sreće.
06:45
He was such a freak --
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Bio je takav freak --
06:47
and that clipboard probably saved his life, because they figured
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a fascikla mu je vjerojatno spasila život, jer su shvatili
06:49
no other rival gang member would be coming up to shoot at them with a clipboard.
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niti jedan član protivničke bande ne bi došao upucati ih s fasciklom.
06:52
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:54
So his greeting was not particularly warm, but they did say,
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Doček mu nije bio previše topao, ali su rekli,
06:58
well, OK -- let's hear your questions on your survey.
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pa, OK -- da čujemo tvoja pitanja na anketi.
07:02
So, I kid you not, the first question on the survey that he was sent to ask was,
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I sad, ne zafrkavam se, prvo pitanje na anketi je bilo,
07:07
"How do you feel about being poor and black in America?"
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"Kako se osjećate kao siromašan crnac u Americi?"
07:08
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:13
Makes you wonder about academics, OK?
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Zapitate ste o sastavljačima ankete, OK?
07:14
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:16
So the choice of answers were: very good, good, bad and very bad.
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Ponuđeni odgovori su bili: vrlo dobro, dobro, loše i vrlo loše.
07:24
What Sudhir found out is, in fact, that the real answer was the following --
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Što je Sudhir otkrio jest da je pravi odgovor na pitanje --
07:27
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:32
The survey was not, in the end, going to be what got Sudhir off the hook.
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Anketa neće na kraju, biti kako se Sudhir nadao.
07:35
He was held hostage overnight in the stairwell.
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Držali su ga kao taoca preko noći na stubištu.
07:39
There was a lot of gunfire;
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Bilo je puno pucnjave --
07:40
there were a lot of philosophical discussions he had with the gang members.
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bilo je dosta filozofske rasprave njega sa članovima bande.
07:44
By morning, the gang leader arrived,
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Ujutro je stigao vođa bande.
07:45
checked out Sudhir,
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Pogledao Sudhira --
07:46
decided he was no threat and they let him go home.
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ocijenio da nije prijetnja, pa su ga pustili doma.
07:49
So Sudhir went home. Took a shower, took a nap.
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Tako je Sudhir otišao doma, Otuširao se, odspavao.
07:52
And you and I, probably, faced with the situation, would think,
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I vi i ja, bi vjerojatno, suočeni sa situacijom pomislili,
07:57
well, I guess I'm going to write my dissertation on The Grateful Dead.
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pa, pretpostavljam da ću pisati disertaciju o "The Greatful Dead".
08:00
I've been following them for the last three months.
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Pratio sam ih zadnja tri mjeseca.
08:01
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:02
Sudhir, on the other hand, got right back -- walked down to the housing project.
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Sudhir sa druge strane, se vratio -- otišao do kvarta.
08:07
Went up to the floor, the second floor, and said: "Hey, guys.
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Otišao na drugi kat i rekao : "Ej, ljudi
08:11
I had so much fun hanging out with you last night,
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baš mi je bilo odlično s vama prošlu večer,
08:13
I wonder if I could do it again tonight."
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mogu li prespavati još jednu večer."
08:14
And that was the beginning of what turned out to be a beautiful relationship
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To je bio početak jednog prekrasnog prijateljstva
08:18
that involved Sudhir living in the housing project on and off for 10 years:
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radi kojeg je Sudhir živio u kvartu s prekidima deset godina:
08:22
hanging out in crack houses, going to jail with the gang members,
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družio se u kućama s ovisnicima, išao je u zatvor sa članovima bande,
08:27
having the car-windows shot out of his car,
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pucali su mu na auto,
08:29
having the police break into his apartment and steal his computer disks --
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policija mu je provalila u stan i ukrala mu disk sa računala --
08:32
you name it.
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i razni drugi doživljaji.
08:34
But ultimately, the story has a happy ending for Sudhir,
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U konačnici, priča ima sretan završetak za Sudhira,
08:37
who became one of the most respected sociologists in the country.
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koji je postao jedan od najpoštovanijih sociologa u državi.
08:40
And especially for me, as I sat in my office with my Excel spreadsheet open,
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A posebno za mene, sjedeći u uredu s otvorenim tablicama Excela,
08:45
waiting for Sudhir to come and deliver to me the latest load of data
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čekajući da Sudhir dođe do mene i donose najnovije informacije --
08:48
that he would get from the gang.
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-- koje bi izvukao od bande.
08:54
It was one of the most unequal co-authoring relationships ever --
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Bilo je to jedno od najneujednačenijih suradništva ikad --
08:57
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
08:58
-- but I was glad to be the beneficiary of it.
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-- ali mi je bilo drago izvuči korist iz svega.
09:02
So what do we find? What do we find in the gang? Well, let me say one thing.
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Što smo našli? Što smo našli u bandi? Pa, da vam kažem jednu stvar.
09:09
We really got access to everybody in the gang.
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Stvarno smo dobili pristup svakome u bandi.
09:13
We got an inside look at the gang, from the very bottom up to the very top.
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Dobili smo unutarnji pogled na bandu, od vrha do dna.
09:16
They trusted Sudhir -- in ways that really no academic has ever --
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Oni su vjerovali Sudhiru -- na način na koji stvarno niti jedan akademik nije ikada --
09:21
or really anybody, any outsider -- has ever earned the trust of these gangs,
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ili bilo tko, bilo koji stranac -- zadobio toliko povjerenja od tih bandi,
09:26
to the point where they actually opened up what was most interesting for me:
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do točke u kojoj se oni otvaraju što je meni najzanimljivije:
09:29
their books, their financial records that they kept.
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njihove knjige, financijske izvještaje koje čuvaju.
09:32
And they made them available to us.
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I omogućili su nam njihovo korištenje.
09:33
And we not only could study them, but we could ask them questions about what was in them.
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I ne samo da smo ih mogli proučavati, već smo ih mogli pitati pitanja o tome što je u njima.
09:36
So if I have to kind of summarize very quickly in the short time I have
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Ako moram to sažeti vrlo brzo kroz kratko vrijeme koje mi je na raspolaganju
09:41
what the sort of bottom line of what I take away from the gang is,
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najniži dio bande jest ono zanimljivo pa,
09:45
is that if I had to draw a parallel between the gang and any other organization,
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ako trebam napraviti paralelu između bande i bilo koje druge organizacije
09:50
it would be that the gang is just like McDonald's.
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rekao bih da je banda baš kao i McDonald's.
09:54
In a lot of different respects -- the restaurant McDonald's.
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U različitim dimnezijama -- restoran McDonald's.
09:56
So first, in one way -- which isn't maybe the most interesting way,
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Kao prvo -- što nije možda najinteresantnija sličnost,
09:59
but it's a good way to start -- is in the way it's organized --
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ali je dobra za početak -- način na koji je organizirana.
10:02
the hierarchy of the gang, the way it looks.
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Hijerarhija bande; kako izgleda.
10:04
So here's what the org chart of the gang looks like.
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Ovako izgleda organizacijska struktura bande.
10:07
I don't know if any of you know very much about org charts,
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Ne znam koliko znate o organizacijskoj strukturi,
10:09
but if you were to assign a stripped-down and simplified McDonald's org chart,
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ali ako biste pojednostavili McDonald's-ovu organizacijsku strukturu,
10:12
this is exactly what the org chart would look like.
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izgledala bih upravo ovako.
10:15
Now, it's amazing, but the top level of the gang,
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Ono što je zanimljivo jest vrhovna razina bande,
10:18
they actually call themselves the "board of directors."
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oni sebe zovu "upravni odbor".
10:20
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:21
And Sudhir says it's not like these guys had a very sophisticated kind of view
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Sudhir kaže da ovi frajeri nisu imali jako profinjeno viđenje
10:28
of like, what happened in American corporate life.
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o tome, što se dogodilo u američkom korporativnom životu.
10:30
But they had seen movies like "Wall Street," and they kind of had learned
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Ali su gledali filmove kao Wall Street, i naučili su
10:33
a little bit about what it was like to be in the real world.
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malo o tome kako je živjeti u stvarnom svijetu.
10:38
Now, below that board of directors, you've got essentially what are regional VPs --
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Ispod tog upravnog odbora, imate u biti ono što su regionalni potpredsjednici --
10:42
people who control, say, the south side of Chicago, or the west side of Chicago.
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ljudi koji kontroliraju, recimo, južnu stranu Chicaga, ili zapadnu stranu Chicaga.
10:45
Now, Sudhir got to know very well the guy who had the unfortunate assignment
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Sudhit je upoznao vrlo dobro dečka, koji je ima nesreću dobiti zadatak
10:49
of trying to take the Iowa franchise.
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preuzeti franšizu za Iowu.
10:51
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:52
Which, it turned out, for this black gang, was not one of the more brilliant
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Koja, kako je ispalo, za ovu crnu bandu, nije bila jedna od najpametnijih
10:56
financial endeavors that they undertook.
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nastojanja kad govorimo o financijskom poduhvatu.
10:58
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:59
But the thing that really makes the gang seem like McDonald's is its franchisees.
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Ali ono što stvarno čini bandu sličnu McDonald's-u jest njena franšiza.
11:04
That the guys who are running, you know, the local gangs --
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Frajeri koji su vodili lokalne bande --
11:08
the four-square-block by four-square-block areas --
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kvart za kvart --
11:11
they're just like the guys, in some sense, who are running the McDonald's.
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su bili baš kao oni frajeri, po nekoj logici, koji su vodili McDonald's.
11:14
They are the entrepreneurs.
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Oni su poduzetnici.
11:16
They get the exclusive property rights to control the drug-selling.
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Imaju ekskluzivna imovinska prava kontrolirati prodaju droge.
11:20
They get the name of the gang behind them, for merchandising and marketing.
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Dobiju ime bande koja stoji iza njih, za prodaju i marketing.
11:27
And they're the ones who basically make the profit or lose a profit,
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A oni su zapravo oni koji imaju dobit ili gubitak,
11:30
depending on how good they are at running the business.
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ovisno koliko su dobri u vođenju posla.
11:32
Now, the group I really want you to think about, though, are the ones at the bottom,
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Grupa o kojoj stvarno želim pričati jest ona na dnu,
11:36
the foot soldiers.
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pješaci.
11:38
These are the teenagers, typically,
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Ovo su obično tinejđeri,
11:40
who'd be standing out on the street corner, selling the drugs.
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koji bi stajali na uglu ulice i prodavali drogu.
11:43
Extremely dangerous work.
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Vrlo opasan posao.
11:46
And important to note that almost all of the weight, all of the people
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Bitno je napomenuti da je gotovo cijela težina, svi ljudi
11:51
in this organization are at the bottom.
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u ovoj organizaciju su na dnu.
11:52
OK, just like McDonald's.
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OK, baš kao McDonald's.
11:54
So in some sense, the foot soldiers are a lot like the people
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Po nekoj logici, pješaci su vrlo slični ljudima
11:57
who are taking your order at McDonald's.
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koji primaju vašu narudžbu u McDonald's-u.
11:59
And indeed, it's not just by chance that they're like them.
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I stvarno, nije slučajnost da su oni poput njih.
12:01
In fact, in these neighborhoods, they'd be the same people.
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Činjenica jest, u ovim kvartovima, oni bi bili isti ljudi.
12:03
So the same kids who are working in the gang were actually --
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Tako bi neka djeca koja su radila u bandi, zapravo --
12:07
at the very same time, they would typically be working part-time
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u isto vrijeme, radila honorarno
12:10
at a place like McDonald's.
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na radnom mjestu kao McDonald's.
12:12
Which already, I think, foreshadows the main result that I've talked about,
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Koje već, po mom mišljenju, nagovješćuje rezultat o kojemu sam pričao,
12:15
about what a crappy job it was being in the gang.
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o tome kako je loš posao biti u bandi.
12:18
Because obviously, if being in the gang were such a wonderful, lucrative job,
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Jer očito, da je raditi u bandi tako krasan, unosan posao,
12:21
why in the world would these guys moonlight at McDonald's?
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zašto bi ovi momci mjesečarili u McDonald's-u?
12:25
So what do the wages look like? So you might be surprised.
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Kako plaće izgledaju? Mogli biste se iznenaditi.
12:28
But based on the actual --
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Ali prema stvarnosti --
12:29
you know, being able to talk to them, and to see their records,
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znate, imajući priliku razgovarati s njima, te vidjeti njihovu dokumentaciju,
12:32
this is what it looks like in terms of the wages.
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ovako to izgleda u odnosima plaća.
12:34
The hourly wage the foot soldiers were earning was $3.50 in an hour.
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Pješaci bi zarađivali oko 3,50 dolara po satu.
12:38
It was below the minimum wage, OK? And this is well documented.
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To je bilo ispod minimalca, OK? A ovo je dobro dokumentirano.
12:42
It's easy to see, by the patterns of consumption they have.
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Jednostavno je za vidjeti iz obrazaca potrošnje koje imaju.
12:44
It really is not fiction -- it's fact.
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Ovo nije fikcija -- ovo je činjenica.
12:47
There was very little money in the gang, especially at the bottom.
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Bilo je jako malo novaca u bandi, posebice na dnu.
12:51
Now if you managed to rise up -- say, and be that local leader,
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Ako se uspijete probiti -- i recimo postanete lokalni vođa,
12:55
the guy who's the equivalent of the McDonald's franchisee --
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frajer koji je jednak McDonald's-ovom korisniku franšize --
12:57
you'd be making 100,000 dollars a year.
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zarađivali biste 100.000 dolara godišnje.
12:59
And that, in some ways, was the best job you could hope to get
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A to je najbolji posao kojemu se možete nadati
13:03
if you were growing up in one of these neighborhoods as a young black male.
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ako ste odrastali u jednom ovakvom kvartu kao mladi crnac.
13:06
If you managed to rise to the very top,
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Ako se uspijete probiti do vrha,
13:08
200,000 or 400,000 dollars a year is what you'd hope to make.
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200.000 ili 400.000 dolara godišnje je ono čemu se možete nadati.
13:11
Truly, you would be a great success story.
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Bili biste velika priča o uspjehu.
13:14
And one of the sad parts of this is that indeed, among the many other ramifications
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Tužan dio ovoga je, da među mnogim posljedicama
13:19
of crack cocaine is that the most talented individuals in these communities --
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crack-a, jest i ona da većina talentiranih individualaca u ovim zajednicama --
13:24
this is what they were striving for.
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žele doći do ovih pozicija.
13:25
They weren't trying to make it in legitimate ways,
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Nisu pokušavali uspjeti legalnim putem,
13:28
because there were no legitimate channels out.
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jer nije bilo legalnog izlaza.
13:30
This was the best way out.
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Ovo je bio najbolji izlaz.
13:32
And it actually was the right choice, probably, to try to make it out -- this way.
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I ovo je zapravo bio pravi izbor, vjerojatno, za pokušati uspjeti -- ovim putem.
13:37
You look at this --
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Pogledate ovo.
13:40
the relationship to McDonald's breaks down here.
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Veza s McDonald's-om završava ovdje.
13:43
The money looks about the same.
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Novac je isti.
13:44
Why is it such a bad job?
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Zašto je tako loš posao?
13:46
Well, the reason it's such a bad job is that there's somebody
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Pa, razlog zbog kojeg je loš posao jest da netko
13:49
shooting at you a lot of the time.
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puca na tebe previše puta.
13:51
So, with shooting at you, what are the death rates?
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Kolike su stope smrtnosti ako netko puca na tebe?
13:54
We found in our gang -- and, admittedly, this was not really
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Pronašli smo da u našoj bandi -- doduše, ovo nije bila
13:57
sort of a standard situation;
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standardna situacija.
13:59
this was a time of intense violence -- of a lot of gang wars --
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Ovo je bilo doba intenzivnog kriminala -- puno ratova bandi --
14:03
as this gang actually became quite successful. But there were costs.
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a ova banda je postala vrlo uspješna. Ali su platili cijenu.
14:07
And so the death rate -- not to mention the rate of being arrested,
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Tako je stopa smrtnosti -- da ne spominjemo stopu uhićenja,
14:12
sent to prison, being wounded -- the death rate in our sample
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slanja u zatvor, ranjavanja -- stopa smrtnosti je u našem primjer
14:16
was seven percent per person per year.
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bila sedam posto po osobi godišnje.
14:19
You're in the gang for four years; you expect to die with about a 25 percent likelihood.
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Ako ste u bandi četiri godine, šanse da poginete su oko 25 posto.
14:25
That is about as high as you can get.
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A to je vrlo visoko.
14:27
So for comparison's purposes, let's think about some other walk of life
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Usporedbe radi, razmislimo o nekim drugim primjerima u životu
14:32
where you may expect might be extremely risky.
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u kojima možete očekivati visoke rizike.
14:34
Like let's say that you were a murderer
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Recimo da ste ubojica
14:36
and you were convicted of murder, and you're sent to death row.
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i da ste osuđeni za ubojstvo, te poslani na smrtnu kaznu.
14:39
It turns out, the death rates on death row --
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Ispada, da su stope smrtnosti na smrtnoj kazni --
14:41
from all causes, including execution -- two percent a year.
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svih tipova, uključujući smaknuće -- dva posto godišnje.
14:44
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
14:45
So it's a lot safer being on death row than it is selling drugs out on the street.
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Tako da je puno sigurnije biti na smrtnoj kazni, nego prodavati drogu na ulici.
14:52
That makes you pause -- gives you some pause -- those of you who believe
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Zbog ovog ćete malo zastati -- barem malo -- vi koji vjerujete
14:55
that a death penalty's going to have an enormous deterrent effect on crime.
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da će smrtna kazna imati veliki utjecaj na kriminal.
14:59
Now to give you a sense of just how bad the inner city was during crack --
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Da vam objasnim koliko je loše bilo u getu tijekom crack epidemije --
15:04
and I'm not really focusing on the negatives,
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a neću se usmjeriti na negativno,
15:07
but really, there's another story to tell you there --
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ali stvarno, postoji još jedna priča koji vam moram ispričati --
15:10
if you look at the death rates --
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ako pogledate stope smrtnosti --
15:11
just of random, young black males growing up in the inner city in the United States --
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slučajno odaberite, mladi crnac odrasta u getu u Sjedinjenim Državama --
15:16
the death rates during crack were about one percent.
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stope smrtnosti tijekom crack epidemije su bile oko jedan posto.
15:19
That's extremely high.
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To je ektremno visoko.
15:20
And this is violent death -- it's unbelievable, in some sense.
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A ovo je nasilna smrt -- nevjerojatno je, na neki način.
15:23
To put it into perspective, if you compare this to the soldiers in Iraq,
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Ako ovo usporedite s vojnicima u Iraku,
15:28
for instance, right now fighting the war: 0.5 percent.
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na primjer, koji se sad bore u ratu: 0,5 posto.
15:32
So in some very literal way, the young black men who were growing up
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Tako da doslovno, mladi crnac koji je odrastao
15:36
in this country were living in a war zone, very much in the sense of
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u ovoj državi je živio u ratnoj zoni, vrlo slično
15:40
the way that the soldiers over in Iraq are fighting in a war.
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vojnicima u Iraku koji su bili u ratu.
15:46
So why in the world, you might ask, would anybody be willing to stand out
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Pa zašto bi onda, pitali bi se, itko htio stajati
15:52
on a street corner selling drugs for $3.50 an hour,
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na uglu ulice i prodavati drogu za 3,50 za sat,
15:55
with a 25 percent chance of dying over the next four years?
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sa 25 postotnom šansom umiranja u sljedeće četiri godine?
15:58
Why would they do that? And I think there are a couple answers.
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Zašto bi to radili? Mislim da postoji nekoliko odgovora.
16:03
I think the first one is that they got fooled by history.
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Kao prvo mislim da ih je povijest prevarila.
16:09
It used to be the gang was a rite of passage.
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Prije je banda bila normalan put.
16:11
That the young people controlled the gang -- that, as you got older,
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U kojemu mladi ljudi kontroliraju bandu -- a, kako odrastaš,
16:14
you dropped out of the gang.
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izlaziš iz bande.
16:17
So what happened was,
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Što se dogodilo jest,
16:18
the people who happened to be in the right place at the right time --
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da su ljudi koji su bili u pravo vrijeme na pravom mjestu --
16:21
the people who happened to be leading the gang in the mid- to late '80s --
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ljudi koji su vodili bande sredinom i krajem 80-ih --
16:27
became very, very wealthy.
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postali jako, jako bogati.
16:29
And so the logical thing to think was that: "Well, the next generation --
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Tako je logično razmišljanje bilo: "Pa, slijedeća generacija --
16:33
so they're going to age out of the gang, like everybody else has,
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oni će doći u godine kada će izići iz bande, kao i svi drugi,
16:35
and the next generation is going to take over and get the wealth."
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a slijedeća generacija će preuzeti bandu i steći bogatstvo."
16:38
So there are striking similarities, I think, to the Internet boom, right?
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Nevjerojatne sličnosti, s recimo, Internet bumom, zar ne?
16:41
The first set of people in Silicon Valley got very, very rich.
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Prvi ljudi u Silicijskoj dolini su postali vrlo, vrlo bogati.
16:45
And then all of my friends said: "Maybe I should go do that, too."
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A onda su svi moji prijatelji rekli: "Možda bih i ja trebao to raditi."
16:49
And they were willing to work very cheap, for stock options that never came.
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Bili su spremni raditi za jako malo novaca, zbog prilike koja nikada nije došla.
16:54
In some sense, that's what happened, exactly, to the set of people
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Što se dogodilo, jest da su određeni ljudi
16:59
we were looking at, is that they were willing to start at the bottom.
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koje razmatramo, bili spremni početi od nule.
17:01
Just like, say, a lawyer at a law firm --
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Recimo kao odvjetnici u odvjetničkim uredima --
17:05
a first-year lawyer is wiling to start at the bottom,
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odvjetnici koji rade svoju prvu godinu počinju od dna,
17:07
work 80-hour weeks for not that much money,
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rade osamdeset sati za ne tako puno novaca,
17:08
because they think they're going to make partner.
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jer smatraju da će tako steći partnere.
17:10
But what happened was, the rules changed, and they never got to make partner.
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Ali što se događa jest da su se pravila promijenila, te oni ne steknu partnere.
17:14
Indeed, the same people who were running all of the major gangs in the late 1980s
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Uistinu, neki ljudi koji su vodili sve veće bande kasnih osamdesetih
17:17
are still running the major gangs in Chicago today.
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vode još uvijek najveće bande u Chicagu danas.
17:20
They never passed on any of the wealth.
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Nisu nikome ostavili svoje bogatstvo.
17:22
So everybody got stuck at that $3.50-an-hour job, and it turned out to be a disaster.
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Tako da je svatko tko je radio za 3,50 po satu, zapravo i ostao tamo, što je katatrofa.
17:28
The other thing the gang was very, very good at was marketing and trickery.
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Druga stvar u kojoj je banda bila jako dobra su marketing i varanje.
17:32
And so for instance, one thing the gang would do is --
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Primjera radi, nešto što bi banda radila jest --
17:36
you know, the gang leaders would have big entourages,
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znate, vođe bande bi imali velike pratnje,
17:38
and they'd drive fancy cars and have fancy jewelry.
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vozili bi skupe aute i nosili skupi nakit.
17:41
So what Sudhir eventually realized, as he hung out with them more,
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Ono što je Sudhir shvatio dok se družio s njima,
17:44
is that, really, they didn't own those cars.
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jest, da oni zapravo nisu bili vlasnici auta.
17:46
They just leased them -- because they couldn't afford to own the fancy cars.
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Oni bi ih samo iznajmili -- jer si nisu mogli kupiti tako skupa auta.
17:50
And they didn't really have gold jewelry -- they had gold-plated jewelry.
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Nisu imali ni zlatni nakit -- imali su pozlaćeni nakit.
17:53
It goes back to, you know, the real-real versus the fake-real.
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Vraća se sve to na, stvarno-stvarno naspram lažno-stvarno.
17:57
And really, they did all sorts of things to trick the young people
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I stvarno, radili su svakave stvari da prevare ove mlade ljude
18:01
into thinking what a great deal the gang was going to be.
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kako bi mislili da je dobra ideja biti u bandi.
18:03
So for instance, they would give a 14-year-old kid --
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Tako bi recimo, četrnaestogodišnjaku --
18:06
they'd give him a whole, you know, roll of bills to hold.
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dali cijeli, znate, svežanj novčanica.
18:10
That 14-year-old kid would say: "Oh, well ..."
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Taj četrnaestogodišnjak bih rekao "Pa, lijepo..."
18:12
You know, he would say to his friends,
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Znate, onda bi rekao svojim prijateljima,
18:13
"Hey, look at all the money I got in the gang."
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"Pogledajte sav novac koji sam dobio u bandi".
18:15
It wasn't his money, until he spent it. And then essentially
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Međutim to nije bio njegov novac, dok ga nije potrošio. A onda
18:18
he was in debt to the gang, and was sort of an indentured servant for a while.
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je bio dužan bandi, te postao njihov sluga na neko vrijeme.
18:20
So I have a couple minutes.
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Imam još nekoliko minuta.
18:23
Let me do one last thing
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Samo još jedna stvar
18:25
I hadn't thought I'd have time to do, which is to talk about
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za koju nisam znao da ću imati vremena, a to je
18:29
what we learned, more generally, about economics from the study of the gang.
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što smo naučili o ekonomiji iz primjera bande.
18:34
So economists tend to talk in technical words.
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Ekonomisti vole pričati stručnim riječima.
18:38
Often, our theories fail quite miserably when we go to the data.
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Često naše teorije propadnu kada dobijemo konkretne informacije.
18:41
But actually, what's kind of interesting is that in this setting
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Ali ono što mi je interesantno je da u ovim okolnostima
18:44
it turned out that some of the economic theories that worked not so well
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ispada da neke ekonomske teorije koje i nisu baš djelovale
18:48
in the real economy worked very well in the drug economy --
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u stvarnoj ekonomiji, su zapravo funkcionirale vrlo dobro u ekonomiji droge --
18:50
in some sense because it's unfettered capitalism.
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možda zato što je to nesputani kapitalizam.
18:53
Here's an economic principle.
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Evo jedno ekonomsko načelo.
18:54
This is one of the basic ideas in labor economics, called a "compensating differential."
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Jedna od osnovnih ideja ekonomije rada, "kompenzacijska razlika".
18:58
It's the idea that basically, the increment to wages that a worker requires
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Ideja je u tome da povećanje plaće koji radnik zahtjeva
19:02
to leave him indifferent between performing two tasks --
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kako bi ostao indiferentan u obavljanju dvaju zadataka --
19:05
one which is more unpleasant than the other --
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od kojih je jedan neugodniji od drugog --
19:06
that's what you call a "compensating differential."
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to se zove kompenzacijska razlika.
19:08
It's why we think garbage men might be paid more than people who work in parks, OK?
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Zato mislimo da je smetlar vjerojatno plaćen više nego vrtlari, OK?
19:12
So in the words of one of the members of the gang I think makes this clear.
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Prema riječima jednog od članova bande, "mislim da smo ovo riješili".
19:18
So it turns out -- I'm sort of getting ahead of myself.
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Ispada da -- malo sam ubrzao.
19:20
It turns out, in the gang, when there's a war going on,
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Ispada da ova banda, kada je u ratu,
19:24
that they actually pay the foot soldiers twice as much money.
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plaća svoje pješake duplo.
19:27
It's exactly this concept.
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To je upravo ovaj koncept.
19:28
Because they're not willing to be at risk.
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Jer nisu spremni riskirati.
19:31
And the words of a gang member capture it quite nicely.
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A riječi člana bande lijepo to objašnjavaju.
19:34
He says, "Would you stand around here when all this shit" -- that means shooting --
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On kaže, "Bi li bio u ovome kada sva ova sranja" -- misli na pucanje --
19:37
"if all this shit's going on? No, right?
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"ako se svo ovo sranje događa? Zar ne?
19:39
So if I going to be asked to put my life on the line, then front me the cash, man."
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Pa ako ćeš me pitati da riskiram svoj život, onda mi daj lovu, stari".
19:42
So essentially, I think the gang member says it much more articulately
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Pa u suštini, mislim da član bande to govori puno jasnije
19:44
than does the economist, about what's going on.
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što se događa, nego ekonomist.
19:46
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
19:50
Here's another one.
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Evo još jedan.
19:51
So economists talk about game theory --
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Ekonomist govori o teoriji igara --
19:52
that every two-person game has a Nash equilibrium.
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da svaka igra s dvoje igrača ima Nash-ovu ravnotežu.
19:55
Here's the translation you get from the gang member.
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Evo prijevoda koji dobijete od člana bande.
19:58
They're talking about the decision of why they don't go shoot --
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Pričaju o tome zašto ne idu pucati --
20:02
one thing that turns out to be a great business tactic in the gang,
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potez koji je zapravo odlična poslovna taktika u bandi,
20:05
if you go and just shoot in the air -- just shoot guns in the other gang's territory --
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ako odeš i jednostavno pucaš u zrak -- samo pucaš u zrak na teritoriju druge bande --
20:09
all the people are afraid to go buy their drugs there.
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ljude će biti strah kupovati drogu kod njih.
20:11
They're going to come into your neighborhood.
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Doći će u vaš kvart.
20:12
But here's what he says about why they don't do that.
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Ali evo što on kaže zašto oni ne idu to raditi.
20:15
He says, "If we start shooting around there," -- in the other gang's territory -- "nobody,
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On kaže, "Ako počnemo pucati tamo," -- na teritoriju druge bande -- "nitko,
20:18
and, I mean, you dig it, nobody, going to step on their turf.
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i, mislim nitko, neće stupiti na njihov teritorij.
20:21
But we gotta be careful,
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Ali moramo biti oprezni,
20:22
because they can shoot around here, too, and then we all fucked."
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jer oni isto mogu pucati ovdje, a onda smo svi najebali".
20:24
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
20:25
So that's exactly the same concept.
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A to je potpuno isti koncept.
20:27
But then, again, sometimes economists get it wrong.
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Ali opet, nekada ga ekonomisti krivo shvaćaju.
20:29
So one thing we observed in the data is that it looked like, in terms of ...
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Jedna stvar koju smo promatrali u podacima je da, izgleda...
20:35
The gang leader always got paid, OK?
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Vođa bande uvijek biva plaćen, OK?
20:39
No matter how bad it was economically, he always got himself paid.
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Bez obzira koliko je to ekonomski loše, on se uvijek namiri.
20:43
So we had some theories related to cash flow,
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Imali smo neke teorije povezane s protokom novca,
20:45
and lack of access to capital markets, and things like that.
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i nedostatkom pristupa tržištima kapitala, i stvarima poput tih.
20:47
But then we asked the gang member,
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Ali onda smo smo pitali člana bande,
20:48
"Well, why is it you always get paid, and your workers don't always get paid?"
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"Pa, zašto ti uvijek dobiješ plaću, a tvoji radnici ne?"
20:51
His response is, "You got all these niggers below you who want your job, you dig?
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Njegov odgovor je, "Imaš sve ove crnčuge ispod sebe koji te žele pokopati i uzet tvoj posao?
20:55
If you start taking losses, they see you as weak and shit."
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Ako počneš gubiti, oni vide da si slab i nikakav".
20:59
And I thought about it, and I said,
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Razmislio sam si, i rekao,
21:01
"CEOs often pay themselves million-dollar bonuses,
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"Izvršni direktori često sebi plaćaju bonuse od miljun dolara,
21:05
even when companies are losing a lot of money.
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čak i kada poduzeća gube puno novaca.
21:07
And it never would really occur to an economist that this idea of 'weak and shit'
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Nikada se ekonomist ne bi sjetio da ova ideja o 'slabom i nikakvom'
21:11
could really be important."
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može stvarno biti važna".
21:12
But maybe -- maybe "weak and shit" --
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Ali možda -- možda 'slab i nikakav' --
21:19
maybe "weak and shit" is an important hypothesis that needs more analysis.
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možda je 'slab i nikakav' bitna pretpostavka koju treba više analizirati.
21:21
Thank you very much.
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Hvala vam najljepša.
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Levitt - EconomistSteven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down.
Why you should listen
With his 2005 book Freakonomics (co-authored with Stephen Dubner, a writer who profiled him for the New York Times), Steven Levitt carried hardcore economic method into the squishy real world and produced a pop-culture classic. Freakonomics is both an economics textbook and a series of cautionary tales about the fallacy of conventional wisdom. Levitt examines the links between real-world events, and finds many instances where the data simply doesn't back up popular belief.
He asks provocative questions: If selling crack is so lucrative, why do dealers live with their mothers? Does parental doting really improve children's test scores? Did New York City's crime rate really drop because of police tactics (or population trends)? His controversial answers stir debate, and sometimes backlash.
Steven Levitt | Speaker | TED.com