TED2004
Steven Levitt: The freakonomics of crack dealing
李維特 (Steven Levitt) 分析快克古柯鹼經濟學
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《蘋果橘子經濟學》作者史蒂芬李維特公開毒品交易的新資訊。和我們的迷思恰恰相反，他說道，在街頭販賣快克古柯鹼並不好賺：不但薪水少於最低薪資，老闆還可能會斃了你。
Steven Levitt - Economist
Steven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down. Full bio
Steven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy,
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各位應該會很高興，我今天不講我自己的悲劇
00:30
but other people's tragedy.
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只會講別人的悲劇
00:31
It's a lot easier to be lighthearted about other people's tragedy than your own,
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講別人的慘事比講你自己的輕鬆多了
00:35
and I want to keep it in the spirit of the conference.
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況且我希望今天的演講氣氛輕鬆愉快
00:37
So, if you believe the media accounts,
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好，如果你相信媒體所言
00:42
being a drug dealer in the height of the crack cocaine epidemic
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認為在快克古柯鹼盛行的高峰期，當個毒販
00:46
was a very glamorous life, in the words of Virginia Postrel.
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是相當光鮮亮麗的工作--套用作家帕斯楚的話
00:51
There was money, there was drugs, guns, women,
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有錢花、有毒吸、坐擁槍枝和女人
00:55
you know, you name it -- jewelry, bling-bling -- it had it all.
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只要你想得到：珠寶、金光閃閃的首飾，應有盡有
00:59
What I'm going to tell you today is that, in fact, based on 10 years of research,
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但我今天要告訴各位，事實上，根據十年的研究
01:05
a unique opportunity to go inside a gang --
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在一次深入幫派的難得機會中
01:07
to see the actual books, the financial records of the gang --
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親眼見到幫派的帳冊，看到他們的財務紀錄後
01:10
that the answer turns out not to be that being in the gang was a glamorous life.
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我們發現，幫派生活一點都不光鮮亮麗
01:16
But I think, more realistically, that being in a gang --
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更實際一點，我認為當個幫派弟兄
01:19
selling drugs for a gang -- is perhaps the worst job in all of America.
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為幫派販毒，可能是全美國最糟糕的工作
01:23
And that's what I'd like to convince you of today.
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這就是我今天想要說服各位的
01:26
So there are three things I want to do.
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因此我要做三件事情
01:27
First, I want to explain how and why crack cocaine
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首先，我要解釋快克古柯鹼如何、以及為何
01:31
had such a profound influence on inner-city gangs.
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對貧民區幫派造成這麼深遠的影響
01:36
Secondly, I want to tell you how somebody like me
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第二，我想告訴各位，像我這種人
01:42
came to be able to see the inner workings of a gang.
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如何能夠一探幫派的內部運作
01:46
It's an interesting story, I think.
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我覺得這是個很有趣的故事
01:47
And then third, I want to tell you, in a very superficial way,
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第三，我想以非常淺顯易懂的方法
01:50
about some of the things we found when we actually got to look at
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告訴各位我們從
01:53
the financial records -- the books -- of the gang.
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幫派的財務紀錄，從他們的帳冊中發現了什麼
01:56
So before I do that, just one warning, which is that
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但在開始之前，我要先警告各位
02:01
this presentation has been rated 'R' by the Motion Picture Association of America.
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本演講經美國電影協會列為限制級
02:06
It contains adult themes, adult language.
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內容涉及成人議題及成人語言
02:09
Given who is up on the stage, you'll be delighted to know that in fact
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不過看到眼前這位仁兄，各位應該會很高興得知
02:12
there'll be no nudity,
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本演講不會出現裸露畫面
02:13
barring a --
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除了
02:14
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:17
-- unexpected wardrobe malfunctions aside.
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意外穿幫事件以外
02:19
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
02:25
So let me start by talking about crack cocaine, and how it transformed the gang.
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首先來談談快克古柯鹼，以及它如何改變了幫派生態
02:30
And to do that, you have to actually go back to a time before crack cocaine,
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但我們得先回顧快克古柯鹼盛行以前的情形
02:33
in the early '80s, and look at it from the perspective of a gang leader.
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回到80年代初期，以幫派老大的角度來思考
02:36
So being a gang leader in the inner city wasn't such a bad deal in the mid-'80s.
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在80年代中期在貧民區當個幫派老大沒什麼不好
02:43
In the early '80s, some would say.
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有些人甚至會說在80年代初期也不錯
02:44
Now, you had a lot of power, and you got to beat people up --
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你握有權勢，可以揍人
02:47
you got a lot of prestige, a lot of respect.
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名聲響亮，又受人敬重
02:50
But there was no money in it, OK?
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但你沒什麼賺頭，明白嗎？
02:52
The gang had no way to make money.
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以前的幫派沒有賺錢的管道
02:54
And you couldn't charge dues to the people in the gang,
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他們沒法跟幫派成員收會費
02:56
because the people in the gang didn't have any money.
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因為大家都是窮光蛋
02:59
You couldn't really make any money selling marijuana.
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賣大麻也賺不了多少錢
03:01
Marijuana's too cheap, it turns out.
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因為大麻太便宜了
03:04
You can't get rich selling marijuana.
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沒辦法靠賣大麻致富
03:06
You couldn't sell cocaine.
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你也不能賣古柯鹼
03:08
You know, cocaine's a great product -- powdered cocaine --
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你知道，古柯鹼是好貨，我說的是粉狀古柯鹼
03:10
but you've got to know rich white people.
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但是你得認識有錢的白人
03:12
And most of the inner-city gang members didn't know any rich white people --
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而貧民區幫派弟兄怎麼會認識這種人
03:15
they couldn't sell to that market.
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所以他們沒有市場通路
03:17
You couldn't really do petty crime, either.
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你也不能偷拐搶騙
03:18
It turns out, petty crime's a terrible way to make a living.
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靠小奸小惡謀生太辛苦了
03:20
So, as a result,
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因此
03:22
as a gang leader, you had, you know, power --
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身為一個幫派老大，你有權有勢
03:25
it's a pretty good life --
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生活過得還不錯
03:26
but the thing was, in the end, you were living at home with your mother.
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問題是，到頭來你還是得跟媽媽住
03:29
And so it wasn't really a career.
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所以這不太能算是一個事業
03:31
It was something that --
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怎麼說呢
03:32
it's just there were limits to how powerful and important you could be
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你的權勢和地位似乎有個底限
03:34
if you had to live at home with your mother.
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畢竟你還住在家裡靠媽媽養
03:37
Then along comes crack cocaine.
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後來，快克古柯鹼出現了
03:40
And in the words of Malcolm Gladwell, crack cocaine was the
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套用葛拉威爾剛剛所說的，快克古柯鹼
03:44
extra-chunky version of tomato sauce for the inner city.
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對貧民區居民而言，就是特大顆粒的蕃茄醬
03:47
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
03:49
Because crack cocaine was an unbelievable innovation.
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快克古柯鹼是個不可思議的創新
03:51
I don't have time to talk about it today.
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我沒有時間就此深談
03:53
But if you think about it, I would say that in the last twenty-five years,
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但想想，過去二十五年來
03:57
of every invention or innovation that's occurred in this country,
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美國出現的所有發明或創新
04:00
the biggest one, in terms of impact on the well-being of people
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對貧民區居民福祉影響最深遠的
04:05
who live in the inner city, was crack cocaine.
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就是快克古柯鹼
04:07
And for the worse -- not for the better, but for the worse.
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但是我指的是負面影響，沒有提升，反而降低了福祉
04:10
It had a huge impact on life.
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它對生活影響甚鉅
04:11
So what was it about crack cocaine?
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快克古柯鹼究竟有什麼魅力？
04:13
It was a brilliant way of getting the brain high.
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它能讓大腦興奮
04:18
Because you could smoke crack cocaine -- you can't smoke powdered cocaine --
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因為快克古柯檢可以用口吸入，粉狀古柯鹼沒辦法
04:23
and smoking is a much more efficient mechanism at delivering a high
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藉由口腔吸食，更能享受快感
04:26
than is snorting it.
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比用鼻子吸食粉狀古柯鹼還有效
04:28
And it turned out, there was this audience that didn't know it wanted crack cocaine,
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所以一群從未吸食過快克古柯鹼的人
04:33
but, when it came, it really did.
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在吸過之後紛紛上癮
04:35
And it was a perfect drug. You could sell for --
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它是非常棒的毒品，你可以
04:38
buy the cocaine that went into it for a dollar, sell it for five dollars.
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用一美元買進，以五美元售出
04:42
Highly addictive -- the high was very short.
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具有高度成癮性--快感非常短暫
04:44
So for fifteen minutes, you get this great high.
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你享受了十五分鐘的快感
04:47
And then, when you come down, all you want to do is get high again.
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藥效退去後，又渴求更多快感
04:51
It created a wonderful market.
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這造就了非常完美的市場需求
04:53
And for the people who were there running the gang,
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對於掌管幫派的人而言
04:56
it was a great way, seemingly, to make a lot of money.
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這似乎是個生財致富的好方法
04:59
At least for the people in the top.
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至少對位居上位的幫派大老是如此
05:02
So this is where we enter the picture.
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此時我們研究人員出場了
05:03
Not really me -- I'm really a bit player in all this.
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其實不是我本人，我只是幕後黑手
05:06
My co-author, Sudhir Venkatesh, is the main character.
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這個研究的共同作者蘇西耶凡卡德希才是主角
05:09
So he was a math major in college who had a good heart,
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他大學主修數學，心地善良
05:14
and decided he wanted to get a sociology Ph.D.,
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想要攻讀社會學博士
05:17
came to the University of Chicago.
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因此前來就讀芝加哥大學
05:19
Now, the three months before he came to Chicago, he had spent
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他在抵達芝加哥的前三個月
05:23
following the Grateful Dead.
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都在追隨搖滾樂團「死之華」
05:24
And, in his own words, he "looked like a freak."
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他自稱外表「活像個怪胎」
05:28
He's a South Asian -- very dark-skinned South Asian.
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南亞裔，皮膚黝黑
05:32
Big man, and he had hair, in his words, "down to his ass."
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身材高壯，一頭長髮「及屁」
05:36
Defied all kinds of boundaries: Was he black or white? Was he man or woman?
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他顛覆了各種界限：他是黑人還是白人？男人還是女人
05:40
He was really a curious sight to be seen.
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真的是個非常醒目的人物
05:43
So he showed up at the University of Chicago.
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於是他出現在芝加哥大學
05:45
And the famous sociologist, William Julius Wilson,
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當時著名的社會學家威爾森
05:48
was doing a book that involved surveying people all across Chicago.
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正在撰寫一本書，需要訪查芝加哥各地的居民
05:54
And he took one look at Sudhir, who was going to go do some surveys for him,
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他看著來幫忙研究的蘇西耶
05:57
and decided he knew exactly the place to send him --
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知道應該派這個學生去哪兒
06:00
which was to one of the toughest, most notorious housing projects.
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他要派他去最恐怖、最惡名昭彰的國宅
06:03
And not just in Chicago, but in the entire United States.
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而且訪查範圍不僅限於芝加哥，還遍及全美
06:05
So Sudhir -- the suburban boy who had never really been in the inner city --
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來自郊區的蘇西耶，壓根兒沒去過貧民區
06:09
dutifully took his clipboard and, you know, walked down to this housing project.
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仍盡責地帶著寫字夾板，走到國宅區
06:14
Gets to the first building.
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來到第一棟樓前
06:16
The first building? Well, there's nobody there.
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情形如何？嗯，没半個人影
06:19
But he hears some voices up in the stairwell, so he climbs up the stairwell.
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但他聽到樓梯間傳來聲響，於是爬上樓梯
06:24
And he comes around the corner --
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走到轉角處
06:25
finds a group of young African-American men playing dice.
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看見一群年輕黑人在玩骰子
06:31
This is about 1990 -- peak of the crack epidemic.
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這是1990年的事了，正逢快克古柯鹼高峰期
06:34
This is a very dangerous job, being in a gang -- you don't like to be surprised.
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為幫派做事非常危險，因此你不喜歡出其不意
06:37
You don't like to be surprised by people who come around the corner.
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不喜歡有人出其不意出現在轉角處
06:41
And the mantra was: shoot first; ask questions later.
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你的座右銘是：先開槍再說
06:44
Now, Sudhir was lucky.
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但蘇西耶很走運
06:45
He was such a freak --
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他像個書呆子
06:47
and that clipboard probably saved his life, because they figured
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手上的夾板可能救了他一條小命，因為幫派弟兄想
06:49
no other rival gang member would be coming up to shoot at them with a clipboard.
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沒有仇家會拿個寫字板來槍殺我們
06:52
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
06:54
So his greeting was not particularly warm, but they did say,
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所以即便他沒有受到熱烈歡迎，對方倒說
06:58
well, OK -- let's hear your questions on your survey.
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嗯，好吧，把你的問題說來聽聽
07:02
So, I kid you not, the first question on the survey that he was sent to ask was,
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我没跟各位說笑，他手上的問卷上第一道題目是：
07:07
"How do you feel about being poor and black in America?"
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「在美國當個窮黑人的感覺如何？」
07:08
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
07:13
Makes you wonder about academics, OK?
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真想不透學術界的人腦袋裡裝什麼，對不對？
07:14
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
07:16
So the choice of answers were: very good, good, bad and very bad.
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題目的選項為: 1.非常好 2.好 3.不好 4.非常不好
07:24
What Sudhir found out is, in fact, that the real answer was the following --
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蘇西耶發現，實際受訪者回答如下：
07:27
(Laughter)
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(5. 幹！) (笑聲)
07:32
The survey was not, in the end, going to be what got Sudhir off the hook.
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但這個問卷並沒有讓蘇西耶就此脫身
07:35
He was held hostage overnight in the stairwell.
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他被押做人質，整晚關在樓梯間
07:39
There was a lot of gunfire;
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晚上槍聲四起
07:40
there were a lot of philosophical discussions he had with the gang members.
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他和弟兄也聊了許多哲學議題
07:44
By morning, the gang leader arrived,
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次日早上，幫派老大來了
07:45
checked out Sudhir,
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打量了蘇西耶一番
07:46
decided he was no threat and they let him go home.
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認定他不具威脅性，決定讓他回家
07:49
So Sudhir went home. Took a shower, took a nap.
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所以蘇西耶回到家，沖了澡，睡一覺
07:52
And you and I, probably, faced with the situation, would think,
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換做你我，在這種情況下可能會決定
07:57
well, I guess I'm going to write my dissertation on The Grateful Dead.
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嗯，我想我的博士論文還是寫「死之華」好了
08:00
I've been following them for the last three months.
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畢竟我已經研究他們三個月了
08:01
(Laughter)
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(笑聲)
08:02
Sudhir, on the other hand, got right back -- walked down to the housing project.
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但蘇西耶很快就又回去了--他再度來到國宅前
08:07
Went up to the floor, the second floor, and said: "Hey, guys.
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爬上階梯，走到二樓說：「嘿，大夥兒」
08:11
I had so much fun hanging out with you last night,
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「我昨晚跟大家玩得挺愉快的」
08:13
I wonder if I could do it again tonight."
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「今天晚上還可以跟你們玩嗎」
08:14
And that was the beginning of what turned out to be a beautiful relationship
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這是一段動人情誼的開端
08:18
that involved Sudhir living in the housing project on and off for 10 years:
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蘇西耶前後在國宅內住了十年
08:22
hanging out in crack houses, going to jail with the gang members,
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期間出入古柯鹼交易場所、和幫派弟兄蹲過苦牢
08:27
having the car-windows shot out of his car,
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車窗被槍射得滿天飛
08:29
having the police break into his apartment and steal his computer disks --
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警察闖進家門沒收電腦硬碟
08:32
you name it.
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什麼衰事都遇過
08:34
But ultimately, the story has a happy ending for Sudhir,
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但蘇西耶的故事有個美滿的結局
08:37
who became one of the most respected sociologists in the country.
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他成了美國最受敬重的社會學家之一
08:40
And especially for me, as I sat in my office with my Excel spreadsheet open,
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我更是享盡好處，只要坐在辦公室裡開著Excel的表格
08:45
waiting for Sudhir to come and deliver to me the latest load of data
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等著蘇西耶跟我報到，乖乖奉上最新的...
08:48
that he would get from the gang.
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幫派資料
08:54
It was one of the most unequal co-authoring relationships ever --
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那真是最不平等的共同作者關係之一
08:57
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
08:58
-- but I was glad to be the beneficiary of it.
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但我很慶幸我是獲益的一方
09:02
So what do we find? What do we find in the gang? Well, let me say one thing.
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我們有什麼發現？從幫派身上知道什麼？讓我說件事
09:09
We really got access to everybody in the gang.
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我們真的接觸了幫派裡的每個成員
09:13
We got an inside look at the gang, from the very bottom up to the very top.
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得以從上到下裡裡外外一探幫派究竟
09:16
They trusted Sudhir -- in ways that really no academic has ever --
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他們信賴蘇西耶，學術界從沒有其他人辦到過
09:21
or really anybody, any outsider -- has ever earned the trust of these gangs,
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任何人、任何圈外人，從未有人贏得過這些幫派這等信賴
09:26
to the point where they actually opened up what was most interesting for me:
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他們甚至對他開誠佈公，公開我認為最有趣的東西：
09:29
their books, their financial records that they kept.
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幫派的帳冊，他們的財務紀錄
09:32
And they made them available to us.
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也讓我們有機會過目
09:33
And we not only could study them, but we could ask them questions about what was in them.
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我們不但能夠研究帳冊，還能提問
09:36
So if I have to kind of summarize very quickly in the short time I have
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因此，如果要我扼要說明
09:41
what the sort of bottom line of what I take away from the gang is,
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我從這個幫派身上學到的要點
09:45
is that if I had to draw a parallel between the gang and any other organization,
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就是，如果將幫派比擬為任何組織
09:50
it would be that the gang is just like McDonald's.
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那會是麥當勞
09:54
In a lot of different respects -- the restaurant McDonald's.
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在很多方面，幫派與麥當勞餐廳有相似之處
09:56
So first, in one way -- which isn't maybe the most interesting way,
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首先，這也許不是最有趣的面向
09:59
but it's a good way to start -- is in the way it's organized --
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但很適合做開頭--兩者的組織方式類似
10:02
the hierarchy of the gang, the way it looks.
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幫派的階層制度形似麥當勞
10:04
So here's what the org chart of the gang looks like.
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這是幫派的組織架構圖
10:07
I don't know if any of you know very much about org charts,
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不知道是否有人熟悉組織架構圖
10:09
but if you were to assign a stripped-down and simplified McDonald's org chart,
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但如果你要畫一個簡單版的麥當勞企業組織架構圖
10:12
this is exactly what the org chart would look like.
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就長得像這樣
10:15
Now, it's amazing, but the top level of the gang,
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這相當驚人，但幫派的高層
10:18
they actually call themselves the "board of directors."
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還真的自稱為「董事會」
10:20
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:21
And Sudhir says it's not like these guys had a very sophisticated kind of view
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蘇西耶說，這不是說這些人很懂
10:28
of like, what happened in American corporate life.
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美國企業運作模式云云
10:30
But they had seen movies like "Wall Street," and they kind of had learned
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但他們看過《華爾街》這類的電影
10:33
a little bit about what it was like to be in the real world.
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對於現實社會的運作方式略知一二
10:38
Now, below that board of directors, you've got essentially what are regional VPs --
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而在董事會下面，有地區副總裁
10:42
people who control, say, the south side of Chicago, or the west side of Chicago.
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比如說，負責芝加哥南部的、或管西部的副總裁
10:45
Now, Sudhir got to know very well the guy who had the unfortunate assignment
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蘇西耶甚至熟識一個可憐的傢伙
10:49
of trying to take the Iowa franchise.
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被分到負責愛荷華的分支
10:51
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:52
Which, it turned out, for this black gang, was not one of the more brilliant
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結果發現，這支黑人幫派在愛荷華
10:56
financial endeavors that they undertook.
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實在賺不到什麼錢
10:58
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
10:59
But the thing that really makes the gang seem like McDonald's is its franchisees.
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但幫派近似麥當勞之處，正是各地的加盟處
11:04
That the guys who are running, you know, the local gangs --
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這些人負責經營地區幫派
11:08
the four-square-block by four-square-block areas --
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也就是長寬各四個街區大小的地盤
11:11
they're just like the guys, in some sense, who are running the McDonald's.
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他們就像經營麥當勞的人
11:14
They are the entrepreneurs.
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都是企業家
11:16
They get the exclusive property rights to control the drug-selling.
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擁有專屬產權，可以控制毒品交易
11:20
They get the name of the gang behind them, for merchandising and marketing.
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打著幫派的名號，方便推銷和行銷
11:27
And they're the ones who basically make the profit or lose a profit,
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而幫派的盈虧，基本上都看他們的表現
11:30
depending on how good they are at running the business.
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端看事業經營狀況好壞
11:32
Now, the group I really want you to think about, though, are the ones at the bottom,
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但我希望各位思考的，是這些位於階層最底端的
11:36
the foot soldiers.
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小囉嘍
11:38
These are the teenagers, typically,
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這些小囉嘍基本上都是青少年
11:40
who'd be standing out on the street corner, selling the drugs.
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站在街角賣毒品
11:43
Extremely dangerous work.
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這是極其危險的工作
11:46
And important to note that almost all of the weight, all of the people
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要注意的是，幫派幾乎所有重心、所有人
11:51
in this organization are at the bottom.
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都屬於組織最底層
11:52
OK, just like McDonald's.
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對，就像麥當勞一樣
11:54
So in some sense, the foot soldiers are a lot like the people
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所以就某方面而言，幫派裡的小囉嘍就像
11:57
who are taking your order at McDonald's.
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在麥當勞負責幫你點餐的店員
11:59
And indeed, it's not just by chance that they're like them.
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當然，這並非偶然
12:01
In fact, in these neighborhoods, they'd be the same people.
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事實上，在這些社區裡，他們可能正是同一批人
12:03
So the same kids who are working in the gang were actually --
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在幫派裡當小囉嘍的孩子其實
12:07
at the very same time, they would typically be working part-time
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同一時間也在兼差
12:10
at a place like McDonald's.
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也在麥當勞這種地方打工
12:12
Which already, I think, foreshadows the main result that I've talked about,
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這呼應了我先前所說的
12:15
about what a crappy job it was being in the gang.
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混幫派實在是超爛的工作
12:18
Because obviously, if being in the gang were such a wonderful, lucrative job,
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因為，如果混幫派那麼美好、這麼好賺
12:21
why in the world would these guys moonlight at McDonald's?
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這些人幹嘛吃飽沒事去麥當勞兼差？
12:25
So what do the wages look like? So you might be surprised.
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他們薪水多少？各位可能會嚇一跳
12:28
But based on the actual --
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根據實際上的
12:29
you know, being able to talk to them, and to see their records,
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訪談和帳冊紀錄
12:32
this is what it looks like in terms of the wages.
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他們領的薪水大概這樣
12:34
The hourly wage the foot soldiers were earning was $3.50 in an hour.
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這些小囉嘍的時薪是三塊半美元
12:38
It was below the minimum wage, OK? And this is well documented.
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低於基本薪資，對吧？這都是有根據的
12:42
It's easy to see, by the patterns of consumption they have.
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這些數據從他們的支出紀錄很容易得出
12:44
It really is not fiction -- it's fact.
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這不是瞎掰，是切確的事實
12:47
There was very little money in the gang, especially at the bottom.
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幫派賺不了多少錢，尤其最底層的小囉嘍
12:51
Now if you managed to rise up -- say, and be that local leader,
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如果你有機會升等，成為地區負責人
12:55
the guy who's the equivalent of the McDonald's franchisee --
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同等於麥當勞分店長
12:57
you'd be making 100,000 dollars a year.
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你的年薪是十萬美金
12:59
And that, in some ways, was the best job you could hope to get
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就某方面而言，這就是你夢想中最好的工作了
13:03
if you were growing up in one of these neighborhoods as a young black male.
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身為年輕黑人男性，從小在貧民區長大，這大概是最好的工作了
13:06
If you managed to rise to the very top,
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若你得以升到最高層
13:08
200,000 or 400,000 dollars a year is what you'd hope to make.
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每年大概可以賺二十到四十萬美金
13:11
Truly, you would be a great success story.
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沒錯，你得以功成名就
13:14
And one of the sad parts of this is that indeed, among the many other ramifications
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而快克古柯鹼造成的悲劇之一，除了其他數不盡的後果以外
13:19
of crack cocaine is that the most talented individuals in these communities --
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就是，貧民區裡最有才華的孩子
13:24
this is what they were striving for.
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只懷有這樣的夢想
13:25
They weren't trying to make it in legitimate ways,
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他們追尋成功的方法並不合法
13:28
because there were no legitimate channels out.
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因為根本就沒有合法的途徑
13:30
This was the best way out.
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這就是最好的出路了
13:32
And it actually was the right choice, probably, to try to make it out -- this way.
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事實上，他們藉由這種方式出頭天，也許是正確的選擇
13:37
You look at this --
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看看這個
13:40
the relationship to McDonald's breaks down here.
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我們頗析幫派與麥當勞的關連
13:43
The money looks about the same.
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各階層的薪水看起來差不多
13:44
Why is it such a bad job?
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為什麼這是個爛工作？
13:46
Well, the reason it's such a bad job is that there's somebody
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嗯，這工作之所以爛，是因為有人
13:49
shooting at you a lot of the time.
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常常會對你開槍
13:51
So, with shooting at you, what are the death rates?
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那，這種槍擊事件的死亡率是多少
13:54
We found in our gang -- and, admittedly, this was not really
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我們所研究的這個幫派，當然這不能
13:57
sort of a standard situation;
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適用於所有幫派的情況
13:59
this was a time of intense violence -- of a lot of gang wars --
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當時暴力事件頻仍，有許多幫派械鬥
14:03
as this gang actually became quite successful. But there were costs.
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這支幫派後來勢力壯大，但也付出了代價
14:07
And so the death rate -- not to mention the rate of being arrested,
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因此死亡率--先不算被逮補的機率
14:12
sent to prison, being wounded -- the death rate in our sample
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也不算坐牢、受傷率，光是如此，樣本裡的死亡率
14:16
was seven percent per person per year.
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就高達每年每人百分之七
14:19
You're in the gang for four years; you expect to die with about a 25 percent likelihood.
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若在幫派混個四年，你可以預期死亡率有百分之二十五
14:25
That is about as high as you can get.
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這是很高的比例
14:27
So for comparison's purposes, let's think about some other walk of life
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做個比較，我們拿其他行業為例
14:32
where you may expect might be extremely risky.
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其他高風險的行業
14:34
Like let's say that you were a murderer
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像是殺人犯
14:36
and you were convicted of murder, and you're sent to death row.
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你被判謀殺罪，關進死刑犯監獄
14:39
It turns out, the death rates on death row --
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結果，死刑犯監獄的死亡率
14:41
from all causes, including execution -- two percent a year.
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列入所有死因，包括處決，是一年百分之二
14:44
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:45
So it's a lot safer being on death row than it is selling drugs out on the street.
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所以當個死刑犯比在街頭販毒還要安全
14:52
That makes you pause -- gives you some pause -- those of you who believe
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這讓人不禁思考，讓各位重新思考
14:55
that a death penalty's going to have an enormous deterrent effect on crime.
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死刑對犯罪真的有極大的嚇阻作用嗎
14:59
Now to give you a sense of just how bad the inner city was during crack --
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讓各位了解快克古柯鹼盛行時，貧民區的情況多糟糕
15:04
and I'm not really focusing on the negatives,
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我沒有刻意只報憂不報喜
15:07
but really, there's another story to tell you there --
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但這邊另一個故事要跟各位分享
15:10
if you look at the death rates --
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看看死亡率
15:11
just of random, young black males growing up in the inner city in the United States --
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任何一個在美國貧民區成長的年輕黑人男性
15:16
the death rates during crack were about one percent.
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在快克古柯鹼盛行時，死亡率大約是百分之一
15:19
That's extremely high.
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這是非常高的比率
15:20
And this is violent death -- it's unbelievable, in some sense.
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而且是死於暴力事件--這令人難以置信
15:23
To put it into perspective, if you compare this to the soldiers in Iraq,
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換個角度，如果和伊拉克的美軍死亡率相比較
15:28
for instance, right now fighting the war: 0.5 percent.
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舉例而言，目前在那打仗的美軍死亡率是：百分之零點五
15:32
So in some very literal way, the young black men who were growing up
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所以說這些在美國長大的年輕黑人男性
15:36
in this country were living in a war zone, very much in the sense of
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是活在戰區裡，一點也不為過
15:40
the way that the soldiers over in Iraq are fighting in a war.
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他們就像在伊拉克打仗的士兵
15:46
So why in the world, you might ask, would anybody be willing to stand out
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你可能會問，天底下有誰會願意
15:52
on a street corner selling drugs for $3.50 an hour,
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在街角販毒，只為了賺那微薄的時薪三塊半？
15:55
with a 25 percent chance of dying over the next four years?
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而且在未來四年內，死亡率還高達百分之二十五？
15:58
Why would they do that? And I think there are a couple answers.
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他們為什麼要這麼做？我認為有幾個答案
16:03
I think the first one is that they got fooled by history.
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第一，他們被過去的歷史騙了
16:09
It used to be the gang was a rite of passage.
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以前加入幫派是成長過程的一部份
16:11
That the young people controlled the gang -- that, as you got older,
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年輕人掌握幫派，而你年紀稍長以後
16:14
you dropped out of the gang.
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就會退出幫派
16:17
So what happened was,
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但後來
16:18
the people who happened to be in the right place at the right time --
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某些人在對的時機，身處對的地方
16:21
the people who happened to be leading the gang in the mid- to late '80s --
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那些在八十年代中後期擔任幫派老大的人
16:27
became very, very wealthy.
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個個發了大財
16:29
And so the logical thing to think was that: "Well, the next generation --
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所以當時大家自然會推想：「那麼下一代..」
16:33
so they're going to age out of the gang, like everybody else has,
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「既然現在的老大都會像其他人一樣退休」
16:35
and the next generation is going to take over and get the wealth."
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「之後就換下一代掌權，接管這些財富」
16:38
So there are striking similarities, I think, to the Internet boom, right?
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我認為，這和網路熱潮相當類似，對吧
16:41
The first set of people in Silicon Valley got very, very rich.
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首批進矽谷的電子新貴紛紛致富
16:45
And then all of my friends said: "Maybe I should go do that, too."
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然後所有人都想：「也許我也該做這行」
16:49
And they were willing to work very cheap, for stock options that never came.
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他們願意削價競爭，只為了永遠不會得到的股票選擇權
16:54
In some sense, that's what happened, exactly, to the set of people
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就某方面而言，同樣的事情也發生在
16:59
we were looking at, is that they were willing to start at the bottom.
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我們的研究對象身上，他們願意從基層做起
17:01
Just like, say, a lawyer at a law firm --
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就像律師事務所的律師
17:05
a first-year lawyer is wiling to start at the bottom,
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甫執業的小律師之所以願意從基層做起
17:07
work 80-hour weeks for not that much money,
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每天工作八小時，賺取不甚多的薪資
17:08
because they think they're going to make partner.
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是因為他們認為自己有天可以成為合夥人
17:10
But what happened was, the rules changed, and they never got to make partner.
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但後來遊戲規則改變，他們永遠當不上合夥人
17:14
Indeed, the same people who were running all of the major gangs in the late 1980s
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沒錯，在八十年代末期掌管各大幫派的人
17:17
are still running the major gangs in Chicago today.
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正是現在掌管芝加哥大幫派的同一批人
17:20
They never passed on any of the wealth.
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他們從未將任何財富傳承下去
17:22
So everybody got stuck at that $3.50-an-hour job, and it turned out to be a disaster.
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因此每個人都被時薪三塊半的工作套牢，悲慘至極
17:28
The other thing the gang was very, very good at was marketing and trickery.
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此外，幫派非常、非常擅長行銷和詐騙
17:32
And so for instance, one thing the gang would do is --
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例如，幫派會做這種事
17:36
you know, the gang leaders would have big entourages,
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你知道，幫派老大的排場都很大
17:38
and they'd drive fancy cars and have fancy jewelry.
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開名車，佩戴高級珠寶
17:41
So what Sudhir eventually realized, as he hung out with them more,
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蘇西耶和他們相處久了之後發現
17:44
is that, really, they didn't own those cars.
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其實，這些車根本不是老大的
17:46
They just leased them -- because they couldn't afford to own the fancy cars.
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是租來的，因為他們買不起名車
17:50
And they didn't really have gold jewelry -- they had gold-plated jewelry.
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他們也沒有金飾，那些是鍍金的
17:53
It goes back to, you know, the real-real versus the fake-real.
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一切都是真真假假真真
17:57
And really, they did all sorts of things to trick the young people
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說實在，他們這麼做是為了欺騙青少年
18:01
into thinking what a great deal the gang was going to be.
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讓青少年以為混幫派是多麼了不起的事情
18:03
So for instance, they would give a 14-year-old kid --
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舉例而言，他們會給十四歲的孩子
18:06
they'd give him a whole, you know, roll of bills to hold.
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一大疊鈔票拿在手上
18:10
That 14-year-old kid would say: "Oh, well ..."
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十四歲的小孩會覺得：「哇賽...」
18:12
You know, he would say to his friends,
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你知道，他會向朋友誇耀
18:13
"Hey, look at all the money I got in the gang."
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「看！我在幫派裡得到這麼多錢」
18:15
It wasn't his money, until he spent it. And then essentially
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但那筆錢不是他的，等到他花掉那些錢之後
18:18
he was in debt to the gang, and was sort of an indentured servant for a while.
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他就欠幫派債了，之後就算是簽了契約的奴隸
18:20
So I have a couple minutes.
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看來我還有一些時間
18:23
Let me do one last thing
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我們講最後一件事
18:25
I hadn't thought I'd have time to do, which is to talk about
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我没想到我們有時間談談
18:29
what we learned, more generally, about economics from the study of the gang.
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我們從幫派身上學到了什麼經濟學
18:34
So economists tend to talk in technical words.
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經濟學家老愛用術語
18:38
Often, our theories fail quite miserably when we go to the data.
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經濟學理論一牽扯到統計數據，就玩完了
18:41
But actually, what's kind of interesting is that in this setting
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但有趣的是，在這個情境下
18:44
it turned out that some of the economic theories that worked not so well
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有些不怎麼樣的經濟學理論
18:48
in the real economy worked very well in the drug economy --
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放在毒品經濟學裡面卻非常適切
18:50
in some sense because it's unfettered capitalism.
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這可說是因為毒品交易是不受約束的資本主義
18:53
Here's an economic principle.
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這是個經濟學原則
18:54
This is one of the basic ideas in labor economics, called a "compensating differential."
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是勞動經濟學的基礎，叫做「補償性工資差異」
18:58
It's the idea that basically, the increment to wages that a worker requires
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基本上就是說，你要調高勞工多少薪資
19:02
to leave him indifferent between performing two tasks --
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他才會心甘情願離開現有的工作崗位
19:05
one which is more unpleasant than the other --
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去從事另一個較辛苦的工作
19:06
that's what you call a "compensating differential."
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這就是所謂的補償性工資差異
19:08
It's why we think garbage men might be paid more than people who work in parks, OK?
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這就是為什麼我們認為垃圾工人的薪水比公園清道夫高一點，對吧？
19:12
So in the words of one of the members of the gang I think makes this clear.
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因此，套用一個幫派弟兄的話，這理論就清楚明白了
19:18
So it turns out -- I'm sort of getting ahead of myself.
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我們發現--我好像把後面的話先講出來了
19:20
It turns out, in the gang, when there's a war going on,
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我們發現，在幫派裡，如果有械鬥發生
19:24
that they actually pay the foot soldiers twice as much money.
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小囉嘍的薪水是平常的兩倍
19:27
It's exactly this concept.
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這是相同的概念
19:28
Because they're not willing to be at risk.
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因為沒人要冒險
19:31
And the words of a gang member capture it quite nicely.
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有個幫派弟兄掌握了其中的精髓
19:34
He says, "Would you stand around here when all this shit" -- that means shooting --
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他說「如果這邊鳥事一堆，你還會不閃嗎？」鳥事指的是槍戰
19:37
"if all this shit's going on? No, right?
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「一定閃的呀，對吧？」
19:39
So if I going to be asked to put my life on the line, then front me the cash, man."
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「所以如果要我冒著小命待在這裡拼命，那就把錢拿來」
19:42
So essentially, I think the gang member says it much more articulately
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基本上，我覺得這位弟兄把這個概念解釋得
19:44
than does the economist, about what's going on.
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比任何經濟學家都要清楚
19:46
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
19:50
Here's another one.
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再舉一個例子
19:51
So economists talk about game theory --
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經濟學家提出賽局理論
19:52
that every two-person game has a Nash equilibrium.
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也就是，所有兩人對峙的賽局都會形成自然的平衡
19:55
Here's the translation you get from the gang member.
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用幫派弟兄的話翻譯一下
19:58
They're talking about the decision of why they don't go shoot --
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弟兄們談到為什麼他們不會亂開槍
20:02
one thing that turns out to be a great business tactic in the gang,
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開槍搗亂是幫派裡最佳商業策略
20:05
if you go and just shoot in the air -- just shoot guns in the other gang's territory --
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如果你對空開槍，只要去別幫的地盤上對空鳴槍
20:09
all the people are afraid to go buy their drugs there.
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大家就不敢去他們那裡買毒品
20:11
They're going to come into your neighborhood.
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所有人都會到你的地盤上買
20:12
But here's what he says about why they don't do that.
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但這位弟兄解釋為什麼他們不來這套
20:15
He says, "If we start shooting around there," -- in the other gang's territory -- "nobody,
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他說：「如果我們在那裡（別幫的地盤上）開槍，沒半個人」
20:18
and, I mean, you dig it, nobody, going to step on their turf.
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「你瞭嗎，没半個人敢踏上他們的地盤」
20:21
But we gotta be careful,
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「但我們皮得繃緊一點」
20:22
because they can shoot around here, too, and then we all fucked."
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「因為他們也會來我們的地盤上開槍，我們就死定了」
20:24
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
20:25
So that's exactly the same concept.
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這是完全相同的概念
20:27
But then, again, sometimes economists get it wrong.
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但有時候，經濟學家也會搞錯
20:29
So one thing we observed in the data is that it looked like, in terms of ...
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我們從研究資料中得到一個發現，這近似於..
20:35
The gang leader always got paid, OK?
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幫派老大總是有薪水可領，對吧
20:39
No matter how bad it was economically, he always got himself paid.
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不管經濟狀況多糟，他都會確保自己有錢領
20:43
So we had some theories related to cash flow,
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我們也有一些有關現金流動的理論
20:45
and lack of access to capital markets, and things like that.
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缺乏資本市場通路云云
20:47
But then we asked the gang member,
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但我們問幫派弟兄：
20:48
"Well, why is it you always get paid, and your workers don't always get paid?"
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「嗯，為什麼你總是有薪水可拿，手下卻没這種命？」
20:51
His response is, "You got all these niggers below you who want your job, you dig?
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他回答：「手下那些黑鬼都在覬覦你的地位，瞭嗎？」
20:55
If you start taking losses, they see you as weak and shit."
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「如果你開始自負盈虧，他們就會覺得你整個弱掉」
20:59
And I thought about it, and I said,
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我思索了一會兒
21:01
"CEOs often pay themselves million-dollar bonuses,
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「總裁常給自己上百萬的紅利」
21:05
even when companies are losing a lot of money.
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「即便公司面臨重大虧損，仍有紅利可拿」
21:07
And it never would really occur to an economist that this idea of 'weak and shit'
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但經濟學家從沒想過這可能和「整個弱掉」的概念
21:11
could really be important."
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有重大關連
21:12
But maybe -- maybe "weak and shit" --
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也許「整個弱掉」
21:19
maybe "weak and shit" is an important hypothesis that needs more analysis.
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也許「整個弱掉」這樣的假說值得深入探討
21:21
Thank you very much.
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謝謝大家
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Levitt - EconomistSteven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down.
Why you should listen
With his 2005 book Freakonomics (co-authored with Stephen Dubner, a writer who profiled him for the New York Times), Steven Levitt carried hardcore economic method into the squishy real world and produced a pop-culture classic. Freakonomics is both an economics textbook and a series of cautionary tales about the fallacy of conventional wisdom. Levitt examines the links between real-world events, and finds many instances where the data simply doesn't back up popular belief.
He asks provocative questions: If selling crack is so lucrative, why do dealers live with their mothers? Does parental doting really improve children's test scores? Did New York City's crime rate really drop because of police tactics (or population trends)? His controversial answers stir debate, and sometimes backlash.
Steven Levitt | Speaker | TED.com