TED2004
Steven Levitt: The freakonomics of crack dealing
Steven Levitt分析毒品交易经济学
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《魔鬼经济学》的作者Steven Levitt展示了有关毒品交易的最新经济数据。与传统看法不同的是，他认为街头贩子其实无利可图：他们的收入不仅低于最低工资线，更要冒着被头头解决的生命风险。
Steven Levitt - Economist
Steven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down. Full bio
Steven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:25
You'll be happy to know that I'll be talking not about my own tragedy,
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你们将会很庆幸我要讲的并非自己的遭遇，
00:30
but other people's tragedy.
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是其他人的遭遇。
00:31
It's a lot easier to be lighthearted about other people's tragedy than your own,
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相比亲身经历不幸，别人的遭遇听起来就轻松得多。
00:35
and I want to keep it in the spirit of the conference.
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我想把这条列为这次大会的基本精神。
00:37
So, if you believe the media accounts,
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如果你相信媒体的数据，
00:42
being a drug dealer in the height of the crack cocaine epidemic
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在可卡因泛滥成灾的时代，作为一个毒品贩子，
00:46
was a very glamorous life, in the words of Virginia Postrel.
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用Virginia Postrel的话来说，他们的生活十分绚烂。
00:51
There was money, there was drugs, guns, women,
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有金钱，有毒品，有枪，有女人，
00:55
you know, you name it -- jewelry, bling-bling -- it had it all.
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还有你所能想到的--珠宝，在那儿熠熠发光--所有这些。
00:59
What I'm going to tell you today is that, in fact, based on 10 years of research,
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但经过十年的研究，今天我要与你们分享
01:05
a unique opportunity to go inside a gang --
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一个独一无二的深入黑帮内部的机会--
01:07
to see the actual books, the financial records of the gang --
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去看看他们最真实的财政纪录--
01:10
that the answer turns out not to be that being in the gang was a glamorous life.
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你会发现他们的生活一点都不绚烂。
01:16
But I think, more realistically, that being in a gang --
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更实际地说，作为黑帮的一员--
01:19
selling drugs for a gang -- is perhaps the worst job in all of America.
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为组织贩卖毒品--可能是全美国最悲惨的工作。
01:23
And that's what I'd like to convince you of today.
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今天我要说服你们。
01:26
So there are three things I want to do.
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我有三件事要做。
01:27
First, I want to explain how and why crack cocaine
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首先，我会解释为什么快克（片状可卡因）
01:31
had such a profound influence on inner-city gangs.
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对城市黑帮的影响如此深远。
01:36
Secondly, I want to tell you how somebody like me
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其次，我想告诉你们
01:42
came to be able to see the inner workings of a gang.
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我是如何了解到黑帮的内幕的。
01:46
It's an interesting story, I think.
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这个故事很有趣，至少我是这么认为的。
01:47
And then third, I want to tell you, in a very superficial way,
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最后，我想要用一种很通俗易懂的方式，
01:50
about some of the things we found when we actually got to look at
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告诉你们我们所找到的和看到的--
01:53
the financial records -- the books -- of the gang.
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黑手党的账本。
01:56
So before I do that, just one warning, which is that
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开始前有个小警告，
02:01
this presentation has been rated 'R' by the Motion Picture Association of America.
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这个演讲已被美国电影协会列为限制级，
02:06
It contains adult themes, adult language.
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其中涉及成人话题及用语。
02:09
Given who is up on the stage, you'll be delighted to know that in fact
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鉴于演讲者是我，你会知道实际上
02:12
there'll be no nudity,
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这个演讲不会有什么赤裸裸的东西，
02:13
barring a --
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除非--
02:14
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:17
-- unexpected wardrobe malfunctions aside.
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--意料之外的事件。
02:19
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
02:25
So let me start by talking about crack cocaine, and how it transformed the gang.
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现在我开始讲讲快克是如何改造了黑帮的。
02:30
And to do that, you have to actually go back to a time before crack cocaine,
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你首先得回到没有快克的时代，
02:33
in the early '80s, and look at it from the perspective of a gang leader.
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作为一个黑帮头头。
02:36
So being a gang leader in the inner city wasn't such a bad deal in the mid-'80s.
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在80中期，混迹于城市的日子还算不错
02:43
In the early '80s, some would say.
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或80早期
02:44
Now, you had a lot of power, and you got to beat people up --
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你有很大的权利，你随便打人--
02:47
you got a lot of prestige, a lot of respect.
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你享受着不一般的特权和众人的敬畏。
02:50
But there was no money in it, OK?
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但是，你没有钱。
02:52
The gang had no way to make money.
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黑帮们没有赚钱渠道。
02:54
And you couldn't charge dues to the people in the gang,
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他们也不能像成员要会费，
02:56
because the people in the gang didn't have any money.
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因为这些帮内成员也穷的叮当响。
02:59
You couldn't really make any money selling marijuana.
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卖大麻也赚不了几个钱。
03:01
Marijuana's too cheap, it turns out.
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大麻实在是太便宜了。
03:04
You can't get rich selling marijuana.
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卖大麻不能赚大钱。
03:06
You couldn't sell cocaine.
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你也不能卖可卡因。
03:08
You know, cocaine's a great product -- powdered cocaine --
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可卡因是个伟大的东西--可卡因粉末--
03:10
but you've got to know rich white people.
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但前提是你得认识那些有钞票的白人。
03:12
And most of the inner-city gang members didn't know any rich white people --
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而大部分黑帮成员根本不会认识有钞票的白人。
03:15
they couldn't sell to that market.
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他们没有市场。
03:17
You couldn't really do petty crime, either.
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你也不能整天实施那些无关痛痒的小犯罪。
03:18
It turns out, petty crime's a terrible way to make a living.
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实际上靠实施小犯罪谋生是非常糟糕的。
03:20
So, as a result,
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所以结果就是，
03:22
as a gang leader, you had, you know, power --
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作为一个黑帮，你确实有权利。
03:25
it's a pretty good life --
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生活确实不错。
03:26
but the thing was, in the end, you were living at home with your mother.
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但问题是，你不得不和你妈住在一块。
03:29
And so it wasn't really a career.
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所以这根本算不上“事业“。
03:31
It was something that --
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这完全算不上。
03:32
it's just there were limits to how powerful and important you could be
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你不可能拥有无限的权利的地位，
03:34
if you had to live at home with your mother.
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如果你不得不整天跟你妈呆在一起。
03:37
Then along comes crack cocaine.
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然后，快克出现了。
03:40
And in the words of Malcolm Gladwell, crack cocaine was the
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用Malcolm Gladwell的话说，这东西
03:44
extra-chunky version of tomato sauce for the inner city.
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就是城市的一盘大菜。
03:47
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
03:49
Because crack cocaine was an unbelievable innovation.
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因为片状可卡因是一个令人难以置信的创造。
03:51
I don't have time to talk about it today.
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我今天没空说这个了。
03:53
But if you think about it, I would say that in the last twenty-five years,
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如果你去想一想，我会说在过去二十五年，
03:57
of every invention or innovation that's occurred in this country,
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这个国家的所有发明创新中，
04:00
the biggest one, in terms of impact on the well-being of people
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对城市人们生活状态影响最大的，
04:05
who live in the inner city, was crack cocaine.
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就是快克。
04:07
And for the worse -- not for the better, but for the worse.
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更糟的是--注意不是更好，是更糟，
04:10
It had a huge impact on life.
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它对生活的影响巨大。
04:11
So what was it about crack cocaine?
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那么快克到底是什么？
04:13
It was a brilliant way of getting the brain high.
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它可以轻易让大脑兴奋。
04:18
Because you could smoke crack cocaine -- you can't smoke powdered cocaine --
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因为你可以像吸烟一样吸入快克--粉末状可卡因是不能用嘴吸的--
04:23
and smoking is a much more efficient mechanism at delivering a high
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相比于用鼻子吸入来说，
04:26
than is snorting it.
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用嘴吸入可以更快地带来高潮。
04:28
And it turned out, there was this audience that didn't know it wanted crack cocaine,
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事实上，曾有一个观众开始并不会知道自己想要用嘴吸入可卡因，
04:33
but, when it came, it really did.
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但当高潮来时他就知道了。
04:35
And it was a perfect drug. You could sell for --
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这是一种堪称完美的毒品。你可以
04:38
buy the cocaine that went into it for a dollar, sell it for five dollars.
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用一块钱的可卡因原料制作它，然后以5块钱出手
04:42
Highly addictive -- the high was very short.
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这东西非常容易上瘾--而且快感非常短暂。
04:44
So for fifteen minutes, you get this great high.
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只能持续十五分钟。
04:47
And then, when you come down, all you want to do is get high again.
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然后当你回复平静，你只想要再爽一次。
04:51
It created a wonderful market.
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它创造了完美的市场。
04:53
And for the people who were there running the gang,
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对那些营运着黑帮的人来说，
04:56
it was a great way, seemingly, to make a lot of money.
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这看起来是一个赚钱良机。
04:59
At least for the people in the top.
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至少对于顶层的人来讲。
05:02
So this is where we enter the picture.
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所以我们从这里开始深入。
05:03
Not really me -- I'm really a bit player in all this.
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当然不是我--我只是个跑龙套的。
05:06
My co-author, Sudhir Venkatesh, is the main character.
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和我一起写书的Sudhir Venhatesh，才是真正的主角。
05:09
So he was a math major in college who had a good heart,
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他大学主修数学，非常善良，
05:14
and decided he wanted to get a sociology Ph.D.,
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他决定要获得社会学的博士学位。
05:17
came to the University of Chicago.
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然后他来了芝加哥大学。
05:19
Now, the three months before he came to Chicago, he had spent
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在来芝加哥之前的三个月里，
05:23
following the Grateful Dead.
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他一直在追Grateful Dead（一支美国电子摇滚乐队）。
05:24
And, in his own words, he "looked like a freak."
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用他自己的话说，他“看起来就像个怪物。“
05:28
He's a South Asian -- very dark-skinned South Asian.
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他是南亚人--肤色很深。
05:32
Big man, and he had hair, in his words, "down to his ass."
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块头很大，体毛旺盛--用他的话说--“蔓延到屁股。“
05:36
Defied all kinds of boundaries: Was he black or white? Was he man or woman?
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他挑战着所有边界：黑种人还是白种人？男人还是女人？
05:40
He was really a curious sight to be seen.
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他确实是一个奇特的事物。
05:43
So he showed up at the University of Chicago.
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所以他出现在芝加哥大学。
05:45
And the famous sociologist, William Julius Wilson,
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著名的社会学家，William Julius Wilson，
05:48
was doing a book that involved surveying people all across Chicago.
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正在做一个针对所有芝加哥人的调查。
05:54
And he took one look at Sudhir, who was going to go do some surveys for him,
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他看了Sudhir一眼，当时Sudhir正想替他做些调查，
05:57
and decided he knew exactly the place to send him --
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然后他就完全明白了他应该送Sudhir去哪里--
06:00
which was to one of the toughest, most notorious housing projects.
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最贫困、最臭名昭著的住宅区。
06:03
And not just in Chicago, but in the entire United States.
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而且不仅限于在芝加哥，而是整个美国。
06:05
So Sudhir -- the suburban boy who had never really been in the inner city --
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所以Sudhir--这个来自郊区的、从没有深入城市过的年轻男孩--
06:09
dutifully took his clipboard and, you know, walked down to this housing project.
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非常负责地带上他的题板，开始了他的调查。
06:14
Gets to the first building.
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到了第一幢楼。
06:16
The first building? Well, there's nobody there.
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第一幢楼？好像没有人。
06:19
But he hears some voices up in the stairwell, so he climbs up the stairwell.
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但他听到楼上有响动，所以他走上楼梯。
06:24
And he comes around the corner --
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他转过楼梯角--
06:25
finds a group of young African-American men playing dice.
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发现一群非裔小年轻在玩骰子。
06:31
This is about 1990 -- peak of the crack epidemic.
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那大概是1990年--快克流行的巅峰时期。
06:34
This is a very dangerous job, being in a gang -- you don't like to be surprised.
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深入一个黑帮显然是非常危险的工作。
06:37
You don't like to be surprised by people who come around the corner.
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黑帮显然很不待见突然从转角出现的外人。
06:41
And the mantra was: shoot first; ask questions later.
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箴言是：先开枪，再问话。
06:44
Now, Sudhir was lucky.
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Sudhir够走运。
06:45
He was such a freak --
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他这么一个怪胎--
06:47
and that clipboard probably saved his life, because they figured
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也可能是他的题板救了他一命，因为那些人大概觉得
06:49
no other rival gang member would be coming up to shoot at them with a clipboard.
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其他黑帮的人不会带着题板来射杀他们。
06:52
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
06:54
So his greeting was not particularly warm, but they did say,
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所以他得到的不冷不热的问候是这样的：
06:58
well, OK -- let's hear your questions on your survey.
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那么好吧--说说你的问题。
07:02
So, I kid you not, the first question on the survey that he was sent to ask was,
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好吧我没有跟你们开玩笑，问卷的第一个问题是：
07:07
"How do you feel about being poor and black in America?"
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“作为一个生活在美国的贫困的黑人，你感受如何？“
07:08
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:13
Makes you wonder about academics, OK?
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你们现在对学术研究肯定很好奇吧？
07:14
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:16
So the choice of answers were: very good, good, bad and very bad.
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列出的选项有：非常好，好，糟糕，非常糟糕。
07:24
What Sudhir found out is, in fact, that the real answer was the following --
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Sudhir后来发现，真正的答案是：
07:27
(Laughter)
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去你妈的
07:32
The survey was not, in the end, going to be what got Sudhir off the hook.
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最终使他摆脱困境的，并非这个调查。
07:35
He was held hostage overnight in the stairwell.
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他被绑在楼梯间里一个晚上。
07:39
There was a lot of gunfire;
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发生了很多枪击--
07:40
there were a lot of philosophical discussions he had with the gang members.
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他和那群黑帮也进行了很多对话。
07:44
By morning, the gang leader arrived,
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早上的时候，头头来了。
07:45
checked out Sudhir,
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他们对Sudhir搜身--
07:46
decided he was no threat and they let him go home.
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确定他不具有任何威胁，于是他们就让他走了。
07:49
So Sudhir went home. Took a shower, took a nap.
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Sudhir回到家，洗澡，睡觉。
07:52
And you and I, probably, faced with the situation, would think,
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如果是你或者我，遇到这种情况，可能会想，
07:57
well, I guess I'm going to write my dissertation on The Grateful Dead.
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我该写写那篇关于The Greatful Dead的论文。
08:00
I've been following them for the last three months.
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我已经研究他们三个多月了。
08:01
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:02
Sudhir, on the other hand, got right back -- walked down to the housing project.
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但是Sudhir，他回去了---他走回了那幢房子。
08:07
Went up to the floor, the second floor, and said: "Hey, guys.
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上楼，第二层，说：“嗨哥们儿，
08:11
I had so much fun hanging out with you last night,
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昨天晚上我跟你们玩的真开心，
08:13
I wonder if I could do it again tonight."
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我想知道今晚能不能再玩一次。“
08:14
And that was the beginning of what turned out to be a beautiful relationship
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那段美丽关系就这样开始了。
08:18
that involved Sudhir living in the housing project on and off for 10 years:
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Sudhir在那幢房子里断断续续住了十年：
08:22
hanging out in crack houses, going to jail with the gang members,
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他在那毒窟里与那些黑帮成员一起混，还一起进监狱，
08:27
having the car-windows shot out of his car,
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遇到过汽车窗玻璃被砸，
08:29
having the police break into his apartment and steal his computer disks --
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也遇到过警察破门而入偷走他的光盘--
08:32
you name it.
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可想而知。
08:34
But ultimately, the story has a happy ending for Sudhir,
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不过最终这个故事还是有了个不错的结局。
08:37
who became one of the most respected sociologists in the country.
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Sudhir成为了这个国家最受尊重的社会学家。
08:40
And especially for me, as I sat in my office with my Excel spreadsheet open,
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对我而言，当我坐在办公室里打开Excel工作表，
08:45
waiting for Sudhir to come and deliver to me the latest load of data
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等着Sudhir来给我传最新数据--
08:48
that he would get from the gang.
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--他从黑帮那里搞来的数据。
08:54
It was one of the most unequal co-authoring relationships ever --
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这真是历史上最不公平的合作关系之一--
08:57
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:58
-- but I was glad to be the beneficiary of it.
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--不过作为受益者我还是很高兴的。
09:02
So what do we find? What do we find in the gang? Well, let me say one thing.
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我们发现了什么？关于黑帮？我只说一件事。
09:09
We really got access to everybody in the gang.
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我们确实有这个团伙里每一个人的资料。
09:13
We got an inside look at the gang, from the very bottom up to the very top.
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我们进行了深入的研究，从底层一直到顶层。
09:16
They trusted Sudhir -- in ways that really no academic has ever --
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他们信任Sudhir--从来没有一个搞学术研究的--
09:21
or really anybody, any outsider -- has ever earned the trust of these gangs,
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或者说从来没有任何人，任何外人--能赢得这群黑帮如此的信任，
09:26
to the point where they actually opened up what was most interesting for me:
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以至于他们展示了我最好奇的东西：
09:29
their books, their financial records that they kept.
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他们的帐本。
09:32
And they made them available to us.
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他们给我们看了这些账本。
09:33
And we not only could study them, but we could ask them questions about what was in them.
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我们不仅可以研究这些账本，甚至能问他们问题。
09:36
So if I have to kind of summarize very quickly in the short time I have
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如果说要简短地概括一下我的所得，
09:41
what the sort of bottom line of what I take away from the gang is,
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我对黑帮的最基本理解是，
09:45
is that if I had to draw a parallel between the gang and any other organization,
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如果要把黑帮和其他组织做一比较的话，
09:50
it would be that the gang is just like McDonald's.
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在很多方面，
09:54
In a lot of different respects -- the restaurant McDonald's.
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黑帮就像麦当劳。
09:56
So first, in one way -- which isn't maybe the most interesting way,
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第一个方面，也是最有趣的一个，
09:59
but it's a good way to start -- is in the way it's organized --
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是它被组织起来的方式。
10:02
the hierarchy of the gang, the way it looks.
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整个帮派的阶层结构。
10:04
So here's what the org chart of the gang looks like.
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这个是它的结构图。
10:07
I don't know if any of you know very much about org charts,
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不知掉你们中有没有人很熟悉机构图。
10:09
but if you were to assign a stripped-down and simplified McDonald's org chart,
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但是如果让你画一个简化的麦当劳组织图，
10:12
this is exactly what the org chart would look like.
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就是这样的。
10:15
Now, it's amazing, but the top level of the gang,
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令人称奇的是，在这个黑帮的最高级，
10:18
they actually call themselves the "board of directors."
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事实上他们自称为“董事会”。
10:20
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:21
And Sudhir says it's not like these guys had a very sophisticated kind of view
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Sudhir说这些人其实对美国商业公司的运作
10:28
of like, what happened in American corporate life.
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并无深入细致的了解。
10:30
But they had seen movies like "Wall Street," and they kind of had learned
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但是他们都看过“华尔街”此类的电影，于是他们也多少
10:33
a little bit about what it was like to be in the real world.
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了解了真实世界里公司的运作方式。
10:38
Now, below that board of directors, you've got essentially what are regional VPs --
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在董事会之下，你看到的是地区副总裁--
10:42
people who control, say, the south side of Chicago, or the west side of Chicago.
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负责芝加哥南部，或者西部的人。
10:45
Now, Sudhir got to know very well the guy who had the unfortunate assignment
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Sudhir和其中一个挺不幸的家伙混的不错，
10:49
of trying to take the Iowa franchise.
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这个家伙本打算拿到艾和华区域的专营权。
10:51
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:52
Which, it turned out, for this black gang, was not one of the more brilliant
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后来他发现，在这个黑帮里，这个决定实在不算明智，
10:56
financial endeavors that they undertook.
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他们在财政上牺牲了不少。
10:58
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
10:59
But the thing that really makes the gang seem like McDonald's is its franchisees.
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他们和麦当劳最大的相似之处就在于专营权。
11:04
That the guys who are running, you know, the local gangs --
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那些负责各个小区域的分支--
11:08
the four-square-block by four-square-block areas --
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控制着方圆四个区--
11:11
they're just like the guys, in some sense, who are running the McDonald's.
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可以说他们就像经营着麦当劳餐厅的人。
11:14
They are the entrepreneurs.
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他们就是企业家。
11:16
They get the exclusive property rights to control the drug-selling.
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他们独享着售卖毒品的权利。
11:20
They get the name of the gang behind them, for merchandising and marketing.
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他们用各自所属帮派的名号进行毒品交易和营销。
11:27
And they're the ones who basically make the profit or lose a profit,
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他们经营的水平高低，
11:30
depending on how good they are at running the business.
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决定他们是利润的获得者或是亏损的承担者。
11:32
Now, the group I really want you to think about, though, are the ones at the bottom,
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现在，我认为你们最应该关注的是底部群体，
11:36
the foot soldiers.
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这些赤脚小兵。
11:38
These are the teenagers, typically,
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他们大多是青少年，
11:40
who'd be standing out on the street corner, selling the drugs.
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他们站在街角卖毒品。
11:43
Extremely dangerous work.
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这个工作极度危险。
11:46
And important to note that almost all of the weight, all of the people
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特别注意这群人构成了黑帮的主体，
11:51
in this organization are at the bottom.
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整个帮派的重量几乎全集中于底部。
11:52
OK, just like McDonald's.
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这就像麦当劳。
11:54
So in some sense, the foot soldiers are a lot like the people
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这些赤脚小兵，
11:57
who are taking your order at McDonald's.
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正如在麦当劳为你点餐的服务员。
11:59
And indeed, it's not just by chance that they're like them.
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这并非巧合。
12:01
In fact, in these neighborhoods, they'd be the same people.
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实际上在邻近区里，这是同一群人。
12:03
So the same kids who are working in the gang were actually --
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这些在黑帮里的孩子们，
12:07
at the very same time, they would typically be working part-time
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同时也在麦当劳里
12:10
at a place like McDonald's.
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打零工。
12:12
Which already, I think, foreshadows the main result that I've talked about,
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这一事实已预兆了某种结果，我正要讲到的，
12:15
about what a crappy job it was being in the gang.
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关于在黑帮工作是多么糟糕的一份工作。
12:18
Because obviously, if being in the gang were such a wonderful, lucrative job,
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很显然，如果这是个完美的、能赚钱的工作，
12:21
why in the world would these guys moonlight at McDonald's?
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为什么这些孩子还需要在麦当劳辛苦工作？
12:25
So what do the wages look like? So you might be surprised.
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这个工作的工资到底有多少？你也许会惊讶。
12:28
But based on the actual --
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事实上--
12:29
you know, being able to talk to them, and to see their records,
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根据我与他们的谈话，和我所看到的财政纪录，
12:32
this is what it looks like in terms of the wages.
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他们的薪水就是这点。
12:34
The hourly wage the foot soldiers were earning was $3.50 in an hour.
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这群赤脚小兵每小时赚3.5美金。
12:38
It was below the minimum wage, OK? And this is well documented.
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低于最低工资标准。这个结论有证可循。
12:42
It's easy to see, by the patterns of consumption they have.
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看他们的消费模式，很容易看出
12:44
It really is not fiction -- it's fact.
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这个结论并非杜撰，这是事实。
12:47
There was very little money in the gang, especially at the bottom.
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黑手党没有钱，尤其是底部群体，
12:51
Now if you managed to rise up -- say, and be that local leader,
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如果你发达了，比如成为了某个区域的头，
12:55
the guy who's the equivalent of the McDonald's franchisee --
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类似麦当劳的专营者--
12:57
you'd be making 100,000 dollars a year.
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你可以一年进帐10万美金。
12:59
And that, in some ways, was the best job you could hope to get
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这是你所能期待的上限了。
13:03
if you were growing up in one of these neighborhoods as a young black male.
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作为一个在这些区域长大的年轻黑人，
13:06
If you managed to rise to the very top,
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如果你能够做到顶层，
13:08
200,000 or 400,000 dollars a year is what you'd hope to make.
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你可以一年进帐20万～40万。
13:11
Truly, you would be a great success story.
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那倒确实算的上成功。
13:14
And one of the sad parts of this is that indeed, among the many other ramifications
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但随之也衍生出一些副作用，
13:19
of crack cocaine is that the most talented individuals in these communities --
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帮派中最聪明的那群人，
13:24
this is what they were striving for.
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都在为这个目标奋斗。
13:25
They weren't trying to make it in legitimate ways,
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他们不会采取什么合法手段，
13:28
because there were no legitimate channels out.
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因为那里根本不存在什么合法渠道。
13:30
This was the best way out.
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这是混的最好的一条道路。
13:32
And it actually was the right choice, probably, to try to make it out -- this way.
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实际上这也是一条正确的路。
13:37
You look at this --
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看这个。
13:40
the relationship to McDonald's breaks down here.
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与麦当劳的相似之处到此为止了。
13:43
The money looks about the same.
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金钱上差不多。
13:44
Why is it such a bad job?
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为什么说这个工作很糟糕？
13:46
Well, the reason it's such a bad job is that there's somebody
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原因就在于，总有人，
13:49
shooting at you a lot of the time.
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正在瞄准你准备扣动扳机。
13:51
So, with shooting at you, what are the death rates?
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那么死亡率是多少？
13:54
We found in our gang -- and, admittedly, this was not really
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在我们的这个帮派中--当然我承认这种说法
13:57
sort of a standard situation;
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并不确切。
13:59
this was a time of intense violence -- of a lot of gang wars --
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这是一段暴力频繁发生的时期，非常多的枪击--
14:03
as this gang actually became quite successful. But there were costs.
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这个帮派发展的非常成功，但他们也付出了代价。
14:07
And so the death rate -- not to mention the rate of being arrested,
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死亡率--更不用提被逮捕，
14:12
sent to prison, being wounded -- the death rate in our sample
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入狱，或者受伤的概率--我们样本中的死亡率，
14:16
was seven percent per person per year.
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是每人每年7%。
14:19
You're in the gang for four years; you expect to die with about a 25 percent likelihood.
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你在这个黑手党里混四年，可以估计你有25%的可能死于非命。
14:25
That is about as high as you can get.
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这个概率就是这么高。
14:27
So for comparison's purposes, let's think about some other walk of life
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为了方便比较，我们来看看其他的谋生选择，
14:32
where you may expect might be extremely risky.
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也许是极度危险的某种方式。
14:34
Like let's say that you were a murderer
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比如你是个谋杀犯，
14:36
and you were convicted of murder, and you're sent to death row.
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你被判谋杀罪，成为死囚。
14:39
It turns out, the death rates on death row --
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而事实上，死囚的死亡率，
14:41
from all causes, including execution -- two percent a year.
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包括了执行死刑等各种情况，仅仅是每年2%。
14:44
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:45
So it's a lot safer being on death row than it is selling drugs out on the street.
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所以死囚也比在街上卖毒品要安全得多。
14:52
That makes you pause -- gives you some pause -- those of you who believe
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那些相信死刑对犯罪防范有巨大作用的人，
14:55
that a death penalty's going to have an enormous deterrent effect on crime.
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听到这里应该重新思考了。
14:59
Now to give you a sense of just how bad the inner city was during crack --
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现在让你们大略了解一下，充斥着毒品交易的城市中心地带有多糟糕--
15:04
and I'm not really focusing on the negatives,
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我并不是在强调负面的东西，
15:07
but really, there's another story to tell you there --
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但我要给你们看看这个--
15:10
if you look at the death rates --
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如果你看看这个死亡率--
15:11
just of random, young black males growing up in the inner city in the United States --
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那些在美国城市中心成长的年轻黑人男性，
15:16
the death rates during crack were about one percent.
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在毒品交易中，死亡率大概是1%
15:19
That's extremely high.
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这相当高。
15:20
And this is violent death -- it's unbelievable, in some sense.
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而且这全是暴力导致的死亡--令人难以置信。
15:23
To put it into perspective, if you compare this to the soldiers in Iraq,
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为让大家有更直观的认识，如果把这个与伊拉克的驻兵相比，
15:28
for instance, right now fighting the war: 0.5 percent.
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比如现在战争中的死亡率是0.5%，
15:32
So in some very literal way, the young black men who were growing up
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所以那些在城市中心长大的年轻黑人男性，
15:36
in this country were living in a war zone, very much in the sense of
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感觉上就像生活在战区
15:40
the way that the soldiers over in Iraq are fighting in a war.
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与在伊拉克打仗的士兵差不多了。
15:46
So why in the world, you might ask, would anybody be willing to stand out
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你可能要问，为什么会有人愿意
15:52
on a street corner selling drugs for $3.50 an hour,
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站在街角，为了一小时赚3块5而贩卖毒品，
15:55
with a 25 percent chance of dying over the next four years?
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同时冒着在未来四年内25%的死亡概率？
15:58
Why would they do that? And I think there are a couple answers.
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为什么他们要这样做？我认为有几个原因。
16:03
I think the first one is that they got fooled by history.
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第一个原因，他们被历史愚弄了。
16:09
It used to be the gang was a rite of passage.
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确实黑帮曾经风光一时。
16:11
That the young people controlled the gang -- that, as you got older,
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年轻人掌控黑帮，
16:14
you dropped out of the gang.
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老人离开黑帮。
16:17
So what happened was,
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实际上，
16:18
the people who happened to be in the right place at the right time --
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那些遇到了好时机的人，
16:21
the people who happened to be leading the gang in the mid- to late '80s --
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恰好在80年代末领导了黑帮，
16:27
became very, very wealthy.
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积累了大量的财富。
16:29
And so the logical thing to think was that: "Well, the next generation --
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所以逻辑上大家都认为: 下一代的新带头人 ，
16:33
so they're going to age out of the gang, like everybody else has,
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在老一辈离开帮派时
16:35
and the next generation is going to take over and get the wealth."
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会继承权利和财富。
16:38
So there are striking similarities, I think, to the Internet boom, right?
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这与互联网热潮真是令人咂舌的相似，对吧？
16:41
The first set of people in Silicon Valley got very, very rich.
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硅谷的第一群开发者，捞到了巨大的财富。
16:45
And then all of my friends said: "Maybe I should go do that, too."
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然后我所有的朋友都说：“也许我也该去硅谷试试。”
16:49
And they were willing to work very cheap, for stock options that never came.
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他们愿意为了拿非常低的工资，只为了永远不会实现的股票持有权。
16:54
In some sense, that's what happened, exactly, to the set of people
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可以说，同样的事情
16:59
we were looking at, is that they were willing to start at the bottom.
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也发生在我们关注的群体身上，他们也愿意从最底层做起。
17:01
Just like, say, a lawyer at a law firm --
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就好比，一个律师事务所的小律师，
17:05
a first-year lawyer is wiling to start at the bottom,
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一个工作第一年的律师愿意从最底层做起，
17:07
work 80-hour weeks for not that much money,
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为了不算太多的钱每周工作84个小时，
17:08
because they think they're going to make partner.
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因为他们认为他们会成为合伙人。
17:10
But what happened was, the rules changed, and they never got to make partner.
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但事实是，规则改变了，他们永远成不了合伙人。
17:14
Indeed, the same people who were running all of the major gangs in the late 1980s
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确实，在80年代末掌管各大黑帮的人，
17:17
are still running the major gangs in Chicago today.
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今天仍然在运营着各大黑帮。
17:20
They never passed on any of the wealth.
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他们从未给出过一个子儿。
17:22
So everybody got stuck at that $3.50-an-hour job, and it turned out to be a disaster.
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所以每个人都被绑定在每小时3.5美金的工作上，这是一场灾难。
17:28
The other thing the gang was very, very good at was marketing and trickery.
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除此之外，黑帮也很擅长营销和权谋。
17:32
And so for instance, one thing the gang would do is --
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比如，他们会做这样一件事：
17:36
you know, the gang leaders would have big entourages,
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黑帮头头们常有一大群随行者，
17:38
and they'd drive fancy cars and have fancy jewelry.
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他们会开着超炫的车，戴着超炫的珠宝。
17:41
So what Sudhir eventually realized, as he hung out with them more,
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当Sudhir与他们多次同行后，他发现，
17:44
is that, really, they didn't own those cars.
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事实上他们根本没有车。
17:46
They just leased them -- because they couldn't afford to own the fancy cars.
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他们只是租车，因为其实他们没钱买炫车。
17:50
And they didn't really have gold jewelry -- they had gold-plated jewelry.
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他们也没有真金珠宝，他们的首饰只是镀着金。
17:53
It goes back to, you know, the real-real versus the fake-real.
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这个又要回溯到，真的真实和假的真实。
17:57
And really, they did all sorts of things to trick the young people
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他们想尽各种办法哄骗年轻人
18:01
into thinking what a great deal the gang was going to be.
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让他们相信加入黑帮是多么好的一笔交易。
18:03
So for instance, they would give a 14-year-old kid --
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例如，他们会告诉一个14岁的孩子，
18:06
they'd give him a whole, you know, roll of bills to hold.
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他们会给他一整把美金。
18:10
That 14-year-old kid would say: "Oh, well ..."
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于是那个14岁的孩子说：“噢，好吧……”
18:12
You know, he would say to his friends,
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然后他会告诉他的朋友们，
18:13
"Hey, look at all the money I got in the gang."
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“看看我在黑帮里赚到的钱。”
18:15
It wasn't his money, until he spent it. And then essentially
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这不是他的钱，直到他花光了那笔钱。然后就是，
18:18
he was in debt to the gang, and was sort of an indentured servant for a while.
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他欠了黑帮的债，同时好像成了契约仆人。
18:20
So I have a couple minutes.
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我还有几分钟。
18:23
Let me do one last thing
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让我做最后一件事。
18:25
I hadn't thought I'd have time to do, which is to talk about
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我本来没想到我还会剩时间，来讲讲
18:29
what we learned, more generally, about economics from the study of the gang.
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研究黑帮的经济学到底让我们学到了什么。
18:34
So economists tend to talk in technical words.
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经济学家喜欢用术语。
18:38
Often, our theories fail quite miserably when we go to the data.
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通常我们的理论有数据支持就不会死得太惨。
18:41
But actually, what's kind of interesting is that in this setting
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但事实上，有意思的是
18:44
it turned out that some of the economic theories that worked not so well
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一些与实际经济活动中不那么吻合的
18:48
in the real economy worked very well in the drug economy --
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经济学理论，在毒品经济学中却吻合得很好，
18:50
in some sense because it's unfettered capitalism.
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部分原因是由于不受约束的资本主义。
18:53
Here's an economic principle.
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这是一条经济学定理。
18:54
This is one of the basic ideas in labor economics, called a "compensating differential."
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这是一条劳动经济学里的定理，称为“补偿性工资定理”。
18:58
It's the idea that basically, the increment to wages that a worker requires
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这条定理大意是说，工人所要求增长的工资
19:02
to leave him indifferent between performing two tasks --
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需让他在两件事间没有区别--
19:05
one which is more unpleasant than the other --
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若其中一件比另一件更让人不爽，
19:06
that's what you call a "compensating differential."
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这之间的差别就称为补偿差。
19:08
It's why we think garbage men might be paid more than people who work in parks, OK?
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这就是为什么我们认为很可能拾荒者的收入要高于公园的工作人员。
19:12
So in the words of one of the members of the gang I think makes this clear.
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黑帮内一个成员所说的可以更好地阐明这一点。
19:18
So it turns out -- I'm sort of getting ahead of myself.
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我好像讲得太超前了。
19:20
It turns out, in the gang, when there's a war going on,
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我是说，在黑帮混战时，
19:24
that they actually pay the foot soldiers twice as much money.
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他们支付那些小兵两倍的报酬。
19:27
It's exactly this concept.
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就是这样的概念。
19:28
Because they're not willing to be at risk.
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因为他们都不愿意冒险。
19:31
And the words of a gang member capture it quite nicely.
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某个成员的话漂亮地概括了这层含义。
19:34
He says, "Would you stand around here when all this shit" -- that means shooting --
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他说，“当这一切狗屎”--他指的是所有枪击--
19:37
"if all this shit's going on? No, right?
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“都在发生的时候，你会只是站在那里吗？不会，对吗？”
19:39
So if I going to be asked to put my life on the line, then front me the cash, man."
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所以如果我被要求把性命交出去时，你必须给我钱。”
19:42
So essentially, I think the gang member says it much more articulately
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所以我认为，那个黑帮分子对于这一切的描述，
19:44
than does the economist, about what's going on.
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比经济学家更确切。
19:46
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
19:50
Here's another one.
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再说一件事。
19:51
So economists talk about game theory --
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经济学家讨论博弈论，
19:52
that every two-person game has a Nash equilibrium.
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说每个双人游戏都存在一个纳什均衡。
19:55
Here's the translation you get from the gang member.
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这是黑帮分子对这个理论的转述。
19:58
They're talking about the decision of why they don't go shoot --
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他们在谈论他们为什么不扣动扳机。
20:02
one thing that turns out to be a great business tactic in the gang,
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黑帮中一个重要的商业战术是，
20:05
if you go and just shoot in the air -- just shoot guns in the other gang's territory --
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如果你在另外一个党派的领地发个空枪，
20:09
all the people are afraid to go buy their drugs there.
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所有人都会不敢再去那里买毒品。
20:11
They're going to come into your neighborhood.
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他们会转去你的领区。
20:12
But here's what he says about why they don't do that.
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但他接着给出他们不会这样做的理由。
20:15
He says, "If we start shooting around there," -- in the other gang's territory -- "nobody,
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他说，“如果我们在别帮的领地开枪了，
20:18
and, I mean, you dig it, nobody, going to step on their turf.
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你仔细想想，没有人会再踏上那片土地一步。
20:21
But we gotta be careful,
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但我们必须小心翼翼，
20:22
because they can shoot around here, too, and then we all fucked."
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因为他们也会在我们的领地上开枪，然后我们都完蛋了。”
20:24
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
20:25
So that's exactly the same concept.
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这概念是完全一致的。
20:27
But then, again, sometimes economists get it wrong.
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但有时候经济学家会弄错。
20:29
So one thing we observed in the data is that it looked like, in terms of ...
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我们观察数据，
20:35
The gang leader always got paid, OK?
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黑帮头目总是能拿到报酬，对吧？
20:39
No matter how bad it was economically, he always got himself paid.
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无论经济状况多么惨淡，他总是能支付他自己的工资。
20:43
So we had some theories related to cash flow,
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所以我们关于现金流又得出了些理论，
20:45
and lack of access to capital markets, and things like that.
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缺乏对资产市场的渠道，诸如此类。
20:47
But then we asked the gang member,
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然后我们问那些党内成员，
20:48
"Well, why is it you always get paid, and your workers don't always get paid?"
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“为什么你总有钱拿，而你的手下却从来拿不到报酬？”
20:51
His response is, "You got all these niggers below you who want your job, you dig?
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他回答，“那些土人都想要抢你的位子，你明白吗？”
20:55
If you start taking losses, they see you as weak and shit."
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如果你没钱，他们会认为你是没种的狗屎。”
20:59
And I thought about it, and I said,
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我想了想说，
21:01
"CEOs often pay themselves million-dollar bonuses,
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“CEO们通常给自己上百万美金的年终奖，
21:05
even when companies are losing a lot of money.
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即使公司面临亏损。
21:07
And it never would really occur to an economist that this idea of 'weak and shit'
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经济学家们永远不会想到“没种的狗屎”理论，
21:11
could really be important."
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会这么重要。”
21:12
But maybe -- maybe "weak and shit" --
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但也可能，
21:19
maybe "weak and shit" is an important hypothesis that needs more analysis.
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可能这个“没种的狗屎”会是一个有待进一步分析的重要假说。
21:21
Thank you very much.
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谢谢。
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Steven Levitt - EconomistSteven Levitt's eye-opening Freakonomics took economic theory into the real world of suburban parenting and urban drug gangs, turning conventional wisdom upside-down.
Why you should listen
With his 2005 book Freakonomics (co-authored with Stephen Dubner, a writer who profiled him for the New York Times), Steven Levitt carried hardcore economic method into the squishy real world and produced a pop-culture classic. Freakonomics is both an economics textbook and a series of cautionary tales about the fallacy of conventional wisdom. Levitt examines the links between real-world events, and finds many instances where the data simply doesn't back up popular belief.
He asks provocative questions: If selling crack is so lucrative, why do dealers live with their mothers? Does parental doting really improve children's test scores? Did New York City's crime rate really drop because of police tactics (or population trends)? His controversial answers stir debate, and sometimes backlash.
Steven Levitt | Speaker | TED.com