ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com
TED2014

Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self

Dan Gilbert: Psikologjia e vetes se ardhshme

Filmed:
5,798,493 views

"Qeniet njerezore jane pune ne vazhdim qe gabimisht mendojne se jane perfunduar." Dan Gilbert tregon studime te fundit mbi nje fenomen qe ai e quan "iluzioni i fundit te historise", ku ne disi imagjinojme qe personi qe jemi tani eshte personi qe do te jemi per te gjithe jeten. Por ky nuk eshte rasti.
- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

Ne cdo faze te jetes sone
00:12
At every stage of our lives
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00:14
we make decisions that will profoundly influence
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ne marrim vendime qe
do te ndikojne rrenjesisht
00:18
the lives of the people we're going to become,
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jeten e njerezve qe ne do te behemi,
00:20
and then when we become those people,
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dhe me pas kur ne behemi ata njerez
00:21
we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.
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nuk jemi gjithmone entuziaste
me vendimet e marra.
00:24
So young people pay good money
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Keshtu, te rinjte paguajne shume te mira
00:26
to get tattoos removed that teenagers
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per te hequr tatuzhet qe adoleshentet
00:29
paid good money to get.
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paguajne per ti bere.
00:30
Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people
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Njerezit ne moshe te mesme nxitojne
te divorcojne njerez
00:33
who young adults rushed to marry.
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qe te rinj nxituan te martoheshin.
00:35
Older adults work hard to lose
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Me te vjetrit punojne shume per te humbur
00:38
what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.
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ate qe ne moshe te mesme punuan
shume per te fituar.
00:41
On and on and on.
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Dhe keshtu vazhdon.
00:42
The question is, as a psychologist,
that fascinates me is,
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Pyetja eshte, si nje psikolog,
ajo qe me magjeps mua eshte,
00:45
why do we make decisions
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perse ne marrim vendime
00:47
that our future selves so often regret?
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per te cilat me vone pendohemi?
00:50
Now, I think one of the reasons --
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Mendoj se njera nga arsyet eshte --
00:52
I'll try to convince you today —
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Do te perpiqem t'iu bind juve sot --
00:54
is that we have a fundamental misconception
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eshte se ne kemi nje keqkuptim baze
00:56
about the power of time.
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per fuqine e kohes.
00:59
Every one of you knows that the rate of change
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Cdokush prej jush e di se shkalla e ndryshimit
01:01
slows over the human lifespan,
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ngadalsohet gjate jetes njerezore,
01:03
that your children seem to change by the minute
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qe femijet tuaj duken sikur
ndryshojne cdo minute
01:06
but your parents seem to change by the year.
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por prinderit tuaj duken
sikur ndryshojne cdo vit.
01:09
But what is the name of this magical point in life
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Por cili eshte emri i kesaj pike magjike ne jete
01:12
where change suddenly goes
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ku ndryshimi befasisht shkon
01:14
from a gallop to a crawl?
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nga nje ritem i shpejte ne zvarritje?
01:16
Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?
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Eshte ne vitet e adoleshnces?
Eshte ne moshen e mesme?
01:19
Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,
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Eshte kur plakemi? Pergjigja del se
01:22
for most people, is now,
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per shume njerez eshte tani,
01:24
wherever now happens to be.
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kurdoqofte tani ndodh te jete.
01:27
What I want to convince you today
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Ajo qe dua t'ju bind juve sot
01:29
is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,
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eshte se te gjithe ne po ecim
rrotull me nje iluzion,
01:32
an illusion that history, our personal history,
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nje iluzion qe historia jone personale,
01:35
has just come to an end,
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ka ardhur ne nje fund,
01:37
that we have just recently become
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se vetem se fundmi ne jemi bere
01:39
the people that we were always meant to be
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njerezit qe gjithmone donim te beheshim
01:42
and will be for the rest of our lives.
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dhe do te jemi per pjesen tjeter te jetes.
01:44
Let me give you some data to back up that claim.
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Me lejoni t'ju tregoj disa te dhena
per te mbeshtur kete.
01:46
So here's a study of change in people's
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Eshte nje studim per ndryshimin
e vlerave personale
01:49
personal values over time.
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pergjate kohes.
01:51
Here's three values.
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Keto jane tre vlerat.
01:53
Everybody here holds all of them,
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Secili ketu i ka te gjitha ato,
01:54
but you probably know that as you grow,
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por qe ndoshta e kuptoni kete
nderkohe qe rriteni,
01:56
as you age, the balance of these values shifts.
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nderkohe qe plakeni,
balanca e ketyre vlerave ndryshon.
02:00
So how does it do so?
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Si ndodh kjo?
02:02
Well, we asked thousands of people.
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Per kete pyetem me mijera njerez.
02:04
We asked half of them to predict for us
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Ne i kerkuam gjysmes se tyre
te parashikonin per ne
02:05
how much their values would
change in the next 10 years,
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sesa shume vlerat e tyre do te ndyshojne
ne 10 vitet e ardhshme
02:08
and the others to tell us
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dhe te tjeret te na tregojne
02:10
how much their values had
changed in the last 10 years.
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sesa shume vlerat e tyre kane ndryshuar
ne 10 vitet e fundit.
02:13
And this enabled us to do a really
interesting kind of analysis,
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Dhe kjo na lejoi te bejme nje analize
shume interesante,
02:16
because it allowed us to compare the predictions
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sepse na lejoi te krahasojme parashikimet
02:19
of people, say, 18 years old,
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e njerezve, le te themi 18 vjecareve,
02:21
to the reports of people who were 28,
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ne raport me njerezit qe ishin 28 vjec,
02:23
and to do that kind of analysis
throughout the lifespan.
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dhe per te bere kete lloj analize
gjate gjithe jetes.
02:25
Here's what we found.
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Ja se cfare gjetem.
02:27
First of all, you are right,
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Fillimisht, keni te drejte,
02:28
change does slow down as we age,
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ndryshimet zvogelohen me moshen,
02:31
but second, you're wrong,
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por se dyti, ju jeni gabim,
02:33
because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.
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sepse nuk ngadalesohet aq sa ne mendonim.
02:36
At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,
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Ne cdo moshe, nga 28 vjec deri ne 68 vjec,
qe ishte dhe kufiri ne te dhenat,
02:40
people vastly underestimated how much change
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njerezit ne shumice e nenvleresojne
sesa shume ndryshim
02:44
they would experience over the next 10 years.
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do te perjetojne ne 10 vitet e ardhshme.
02:47
We call this the "end of history" illusion.
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Ne e quajme kete iluzioni "fundi i historise"
02:50
To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,
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Per t'iu dhene nje ide te shkalles se ketij efekti,
02:52
you can connect these two lines,
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ju mund te lidhni keto dy linja,
02:53
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds
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dhe ajo qe shihni ketu eshte qe nje 18 vjecar
02:56
anticipate changing only as much
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e parashikon ndryshimin aq shume
02:58
as 50-year-olds actually do.
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sa dhe nje 50 vjecar.
03:01
Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.
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Nuk jane vetem vlera.
Jane nje teresi gjerash te tjera.
03:05
For example, personality.
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Per shembull, personaliteti.
03:07
Many of you know that psychologists now claim
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Shume prej jush e dine tashme
se psikologet pohojne
03:09
that there are five fundamental
dimensions of personality:
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se jane pese dimensione thelbesore
te personalitetit:
03:13
neuroticism, openness to experience,
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neuroticizmi, hapja ndaj eksperiencave,
03:15
agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.
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pajtueshmeria, ekstraversion
dhe ndergjegjshmeria.
03:19
Again, we asked people how much they expected
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Perseri, ne i pyetem njerezit
se cfare prisnin ata
03:21
to change over the next 10 years,
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qe te ndryshonte ne 10 vitet ne vazhdim,
03:23
and also how much they had
changed over the last 10 years,
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dhe gjithashtu sesa shume
ata kishin ndryshuar ne keto 10 vite,
03:26
and what we found,
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dhe ajo qe gjetem,
03:27
well, you're going to get used to
seeing this diagram over and over,
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do te mesoheni duke e pare kete diagrame
perseri e perseri,
03:30
because once again the rate of change
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sepse perseri shkalla e ndryshimit
03:32
does slow as we age,
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zvogelohet nderkohe qe ne moshohemi,
03:33
but at every age, people underestimate
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por ne cdo moshe, njerezit e nenvleresojne
03:37
how much their personalities will change
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sesa shume personaliteti i tyre do te ndryshoje
03:39
in the next decade.
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ne dekaden e ardhshme.
03:41
And it isn't just ephemeral things
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Dhe nuk eshte vetem nje gje kalimtare
03:44
like values and personality.
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si vlerat dhe personaliteti.
03:45
You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,
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Mund te pyesni njerezit mbi ato
qe pelqejne dhe nuk pelqejne,
03:48
their basic preferences.
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per preferencat e tyre bazike.
03:50
For example, name your best friend,
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Per shembull, me thuaj
cili eshte shoku yt i ngushte,
03:53
your favorite kind of vacation,
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pushimet e tua te preferuara,
03:54
what's your favorite hobby,
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cili eshte hobi yt,
03:56
what's your favorite kind of music.
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cila eshte lloji i muzikes qe te pelqen,
03:58
People can name these things.
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Njerezit mund ti tregojne keto gjera.
03:59
We ask half of them to tell us,
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Ne pyetem gjysmen e tyre te na tregojne,
04:01
"Do you think that that will
change over the next 10 years?"
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"A mendoni se kjo do te ndryshoje
ne 10 vitet ne vazhdim?"
04:05
and half of them to tell us,
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dhe gjysmen tjeter te na tregonte
04:06
"Did that change over the last 10 years?"
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"A ndryshoi kjo ne 10 vitet e fundit?"
04:09
And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,
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Dhe ajo qe pame, e keni pare dy here deri tani,
04:11
and here it is again:
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dhe ja ku eshte perseri:
04:13
people predict that the friend they have now
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njerezit parashikojne se shoku qe kane tani
04:16
is the friend they'll have in 10 years,
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eshte shoku qe do te kene
ne 10 vitet ne vazhdim,
04:18
the vacation they most enjoy now is the one
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pushimet me te cilat kenaqen tani jane ato
04:20
they'll enjoy in 10 years,
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qe do te pelqejne dhe mbas 10 vitesh,
04:21
and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,
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dhe perseri, njerezit qe jane 10 vjet
me te medhenj na thone,
04:24
"Eh, you know, that's really changed."
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"Ah, e dini, kjo me te vertete ndryshoi."
04:27
Does any of this matter?
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A ka rendesi ndonje nga keto?
04:28
Is this just a form of mis-prediction
that doesn't have consequences?
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A eshte kjo nje forme e keqparashikimit
qe nuk ka pasoja?
04:31
No, it matters quite a bit, and
I'll give you an example of why.
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Jo, ka rendesi, dhe une
do t'ju jap nje shembull pse.
04:34
It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.
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Kjo nderlikon vendimarrjen tone
ne menyra te rendesishme.
04:38
Bring to mind right now for yourself
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Sillni ne mendje
04:39
your favorite musician today
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kengetarin tuaj te preferuar sot
04:42
and your favorite musician 10 years ago.
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dhe kengetarin tuaj te preferuar para 10 vitesh.
04:44
I put mine up on the screen to help you along.
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Une e kam vendosur timin ne ekran
ne menyre qe t'ju vij ne ndihme juve.
04:46
Now we asked people
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Ne i kerkuam njerezve
04:48
to predict for us, to tell us
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te parashikojne per ne, te na tregojne
04:50
how much money they would pay right now
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sesa para do te paguanin pikerisht tani
04:53
to see their current favorite musician
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per te pare kengetarin e tyre te preferuar
04:55
perform in concert 10 years from now,
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te performoje ne nje koncert
pas 10 vitesh nga tani,
04:58
and on average, people said they would pay
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dhe mesatarisht, njerezit thane se do te paguanin
05:00
129 dollars for that ticket.
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129 dollar per nje bilete.
05:03
And yet, when we asked them
how much they would pay
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Dhe me pas, kur ne i pyetem sesa do te paguanin
05:06
to see the person who was their favorite
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kengetarin qe ishte i preferuari i tyre
05:08
10 years ago perform today,
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para 10 vitesh te performoje tani,
05:10
they say only 80 dollars.
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ata thane vetem 80 dollar.
05:12
Now, in a perfectly rational world,
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Ne nje bote plotesisht racionale,
05:14
these should be the same number,
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duhet te ishte i njejti numer,
05:16
but we overpay for the opportunity
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por ne mbipaguajme per mundesine
05:18
to indulge our current preferences
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per te plotesuar preferencat tona aktuale
05:20
because we overestimate their stability.
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sepse ne e mbivleresojme stabilitetin e tyre.
05:24
Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,
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Por perse ndodh kjo?
Ne nuk jemi plotesisht te sigurte,
05:26
but it probably has to do
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por mundesisht ka te beje
05:28
with the ease of remembering
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me lehtesine e te kujtuarit
05:30
versus the difficulty of imagining.
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kundrejt veshtiresise per te imagjinuar.
05:32
Most of us can remember
who we were 10 years ago,
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Shume nga ne mund te kujtojne
sesi ishin para 10 vitesh,
05:35
but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,
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por e kane te veshtire te imagjinojne
se kush do te jene,
05:38
and then we mistakenly think
that because it's hard to imagine,
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dhe gabimisht mendojme kete
sepse eshte e veshtire te imagjinosh,
05:41
it's not likely to happen.
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nuk ka mundesi te ndodhe.
05:43
Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"
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Me vjen keq, kur njerezit thone
"nuk mund ta imagjinoj kete"
05:46
they're usually talking about
their own lack of imagination,
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ata ne te vertete po flasin
per mungesen e tyre te imagjinates,
05:49
and not about the unlikelihood
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dhe jo per pamundesine
05:50
of the event that they're describing.
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e ngjarjes qe ata po pershkruajne.
05:53
The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.
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Si perfundim, koha eshte
nje force shume e fuqishme.
05:57
It transforms our preferences.
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Ajo transformon preferencat tona.
05:59
It reshapes our values.
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Ajo riformon vlerat tona.
06:01
It alters our personalities.
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Ajo ndryshon personalitetin tone.
06:02
We seem to appreciate this fact,
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Ne dukemi sikur e vleresojme kete fakt,
06:05
but only in retrospect.
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por vetem ne retrospektive.
06:06
Only when we look backwards do we realize
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Vetem kur veshtrojme pas e kuptojme
06:09
how much change happens in a decade.
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sesa shume ndryshime ndodhin ne nje dekade,
06:12
It's as if, for most of us,
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Eshte sikur per shume prej nesh,
06:14
the present is a magic time.
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e tashmja eshte nje kohe magjike.
06:16
It's a watershed on the timeline.
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Eshte nje cast vendimtar ne kohen tone.
06:18
It's the moment at which we finally
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Eshte momenti te cilin te gjithe ne me ne fund
06:20
become ourselves.
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behemi vetja.
06:23
Human beings are works in progress
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Qeniet njerezore jane nje pune ne vazhdim
06:25
that mistakenly think they're finished.
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qe gabimisht mendojne se kane perfunduar.
06:28
The person you are right now
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Personi qe jeni tani
06:30
is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary
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eshte kaq i perkohshem, kalimtar, i shkurter
06:34
as all the people you've ever been.
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si te gjithe njerezit qe ju keni qene.
06:36
The one constant in our life is change.
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E vetmja konstante ne jeten tuaj eshte ndryshimi.
06:40
Thank you.
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Ju falemnderit.
06:42
(Applause)
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(Duartrokitje)
Translated by Eva Hoxha
Reviewed by Helena Bedalli

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com

Data provided by TED.

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