ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com
TED2014

Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self

Дэн Гілберт: Псіхалогія будучага "я"

Filmed:
5,798,493 views

"Чалавечая істота - гэта працэс развіцця, які, як мы памылкова лічым, ужо спыніўся." Дэн Гілберт дзеліцца нядаўнім даследаваннем аб з'яве, якую ён называе "канец гісторыі ілюзіі", паводле даследвання, мы верым, што чалавек застаецца аднолькавым на працягу ўсяго жыцця. Падказка: не ў гэтым выпадку.
- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
At every stage of our lives
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На кожным этапе нашага жыцця
00:14
we make decisions that will profoundly influence
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мы прымаем рашэнні, якія будуць ўплываць на
тое, кім мы станем,
00:18
the lives of the people we're going to become,
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а калі мы, нарэшце, становімся гэтымі людзьмі,
00:20
and then when we become those people,
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00:21
we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.
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мы не заўсёды ў захапленні ад гэтых рашэнняў.
00:24
So young people pay good money
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Так, маладыя людзі плацяць вялікія грошы,
00:26
to get tattoos removed that teenagers
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каб пазбавіцца ад татуіровак, а падлеткі -
00:29
paid good money to get.
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каб набыць.
00:30
Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people
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Людзі ва ўзросце - спяшаюцца разысціся,
00:33
who young adults rushed to marry.
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пасля таго як у маладосці імкнуліся да шлюбу.
00:35
Older adults work hard to lose
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Старыя завіхаюцца, каб пазбавіцца ад таго,
00:38
what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.
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за што маладзейшыя ўпарта працуюць.
00:41
On and on and on.
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І гэтак далей.
00:42
The question is, as a psychologist,
that fascinates me is,
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Як псіхолагу мне цікава:
00:45
why do we make decisions
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чаму мы прымаем рашэнні,
00:47
that our future selves so often regret?
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пра якія шкадуем у будучыні?
00:50
Now, I think one of the reasons --
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Дык вось, адна з прычын --
00:52
I'll try to convince you today —
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сёння я паспрабую вас пераканаць -
00:54
is that we have a fundamental misconception
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мы грунтоўна памыляемся ў нашым
00:56
about the power of time.
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разуменні сілы часу.
00:59
Every one of you knows that the rate of change
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Кожны ведае, што змены запавольваюцца
01:01
slows over the human lifespan,
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з цягам часу,
01:03
that your children seem to change by the minute
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здаецца, што дзеці змяняюцца кожную хвіліну,
01:06
but your parents seem to change by the year.
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але бацькі -- па гадах.
01:09
But what is the name of this magical point in life
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Дык як жа завецца гэты чароўны момант у жыцці,
01:12
where change suddenly goes
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калі змены праходзяць праз
01:14
from a gallop to a crawl?
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галоп да чарапашага кроку?
01:16
Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?
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Юнацтва? Сталасць?
01:19
Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,
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Старасць? Аказваецца, што
01:22
for most people, is now,
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для большасці людзей -- гэта цяперашні час,
01:24
wherever now happens to be.
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чым бы ён ні з'яўляўся.
01:27
What I want to convince you today
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Сёння я хачу вас пераканаць у тым,
01:29
is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,
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што ўсе мы жывем з ілюзіяй,
01:32
an illusion that history, our personal history,
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памылковай думкай, што наша асабістая гісторыя
01:35
has just come to an end,
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толькі што скончылася,
01:37
that we have just recently become
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што мы нарэшце зрабіліся
01:39
the people that we were always meant to be
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тымі людзьмі, якімі заўсёды збіраліся быць
01:42
and will be for the rest of our lives.
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і застанемся да канца нашага жыцця.
01:44
Let me give you some data to back up that claim.
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Вось некаторыя дадзеныя ў падтрымку.
01:46
So here's a study of change in people's
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Даследванне, якое вывучае змены ў
01:49
personal values over time.
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асабістых каштоўнасцях з цягам часу.
01:51
Here's three values.
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Вось тры значэнні.
01:53
Everybody here holds all of them,
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Кожны з нас мае ўсе тры,
01:54
but you probably know that as you grow,
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але вы, напэўна, ведаеце, што калі мы сталеем,
01:56
as you age, the balance of these values shifts.
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з узростам, баланс гэтых каштоўнасцяў мяняецца.
02:00
So how does it do so?
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Чаму гэта здараецца?
02:02
Well, we asked thousands of people.
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Мы спыталі тысячы людзей.
02:04
We asked half of them to predict for us
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Палову з іх мы папрасілі прадказаць,
02:05
how much their values would
change in the next 10 years,
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наколькі іх каштоўнасці зменяцца праз бліжэйшыя 10 гадоў,
02:08
and the others to tell us
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другую палову мы спыталі,
02:10
how much their values had
changed in the last 10 years.
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як яны змяніліся за апошнія 10 гадоў.
02:13
And this enabled us to do a really
interesting kind of analysis,
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Мы атрымалі сапраўды цікавы аналіз,
02:16
because it allowed us to compare the predictions
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бо мы змаглі параўнаць прадказанні
02:19
of people, say, 18 years old,
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людзей, скажам, ва ўзросце 18 гадоў,
02:21
to the reports of people who were 28,
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і адказы людзей, якім было 28,
02:23
and to do that kind of analysis
throughout the lifespan.
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і прасачыць гэта на працягу ўсяго жыцця.
02:25
Here's what we found.
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Дык вось, што мы знайшлі.
02:27
First of all, you are right,
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Па-першае, вы маеце рацыю --
02:28
change does slow down as we age,
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бо змены сапраўды запавольваюцца з ўзростам,
02:31
but second, you're wrong,
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па-другое, вы памыляецеся,
02:33
because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.
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бо адбываецца гэта не так, як мы лічым.
02:36
At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,
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У любым узросце, даследуемыя - ад 18 да 68 -
02:40
people vastly underestimated how much change
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значна недаацэньвалі змены,
02:44
they would experience over the next 10 years.
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якія адбудуцца ў бліжэйшыя 10 гадоў.
02:47
We call this the "end of history" illusion.
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Мы завем гэта - "канец гісторыі" ілюзіій.
02:50
To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,
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Каб уявіць сабе велічыню гэтага эфекту -
02:52
you can connect these two lines,
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злучыце дзве лініі,
02:53
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds
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і вы бачыце, што 18-гадовыя
02:56
anticipate changing only as much
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прадчуваюць столькі змен,
02:58
as 50-year-olds actually do.
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колькі 50-гадовыя адчуваюць на самой справе.
03:01
Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.
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Гэта не толькі каштоўнасці, але і іншыя рэчы.
03:05
For example, personality.
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Напрыклад, асоба.
03:07
Many of you know that psychologists now claim
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Вядома, што псіхолагі сцвярджаюць:
03:09
that there are five fundamental
dimensions of personality:
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ёсць пяць фундаментальных уласцівасцяў асобы:
03:13
neuroticism, openness to experience,
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неўратызм, адкрытасць да вопыту,
03:15
agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.
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дабразычлівасць, экстраверсія, і добрасумленнасць.
03:19
Again, we asked people how much they expected
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Мы зноў спыталі, наколькі людзі разлічваюць
03:21
to change over the next 10 years,
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змяніцца на працягу бліжэйшых 10 гадоў,
03:23
and also how much they had
changed over the last 10 years,
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і наколькі яны змяніліся за апошнія 10 гадоў,
03:26
and what we found,
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і тое, што мы высветлілі,
03:27
well, you're going to get used to
seeing this diagram over and over,
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вы прызвычаецеся да гэтай дыяграмы,
бо ўбачыце яе яшчэ не раз,
03:30
because once again the rate of change
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таму што, зноў жа, хуткасць змен
03:32
does slow as we age,
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запавольваецца з узростам,
03:33
but at every age, people underestimate
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але ў кожным узросце людзі недаацэньваюць,
03:37
how much their personalities will change
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наколькі зменіцца іх асоба
03:39
in the next decade.
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ў наступным дзесяцігоддзі.
03:41
And it isn't just ephemeral things
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І гэта не проста эфемерныя рэчы
03:44
like values and personality.
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як каштоўнасці ці асоба.
03:45
You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,
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Спытаце людзей пра прыхільнасці і непрыязнасці,
03:48
their basic preferences.
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або іх звычайныя перавагі.
03:50
For example, name your best friend,
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Напрыклад, назавіце вашага лепшага сябра,
03:53
your favorite kind of vacation,
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або ваш любімы від адпачынку
03:54
what's your favorite hobby,
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ці хобі,
03:56
what's your favorite kind of music.
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якая музыка вам падабаецца?
03:58
People can name these things.
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Людзі могуць назваць гэтыя рэчы.
03:59
We ask half of them to tell us,
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Мы папрасілі палову з іх адказаць:
04:01
"Do you think that that will
change over the next 10 years?"
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"Вы лічыце гэта зменіцца
на працягу бліжэйшых 10 гадоў?" -
04:05
and half of them to tell us,
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а другую палову спыталі:
04:06
"Did that change over the last 10 years?"
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"Ці змянілася гэта за апошнія 10 гадоў?"
04:09
And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,
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Тое, што мы знайшлі, і вы бачылі ўжо двойчы,
04:11
and here it is again:
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і вось яно зноў:
04:13
people predict that the friend they have now
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людзі прадказваюць, што ў іх будзе
04:16
is the friend they'll have in 10 years,
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той жа самы сябар праз 10 гадоў,
04:18
the vacation they most enjoy now is the one
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любімы адпачынак застанецца
04:20
they'll enjoy in 10 years,
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нязменным,
04:21
and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,
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і ўсё ж людзі старэйшыя на 10 гадоў кажуць:
04:24
"Eh, you know, that's really changed."
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"Вы ведаеце, на самой справе, усё змянілася."
04:27
Does any of this matter?
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Ці мае гэта значэнне?
04:28
Is this just a form of mis-prediction
that doesn't have consequences?
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Або гэта проста памылковае меркаванне,
якое не мае ніякага ўплыву?
04:31
No, it matters quite a bit, and
I'll give you an example of why.
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Не, гэта мае вялікае значэнне,
я прывяду прыклад.
04:34
It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.
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Гэта сур'ёзна перашкаджае прыняццю рашэнняў.
04:38
Bring to mind right now for yourself
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Прыгадайце зараз
04:39
your favorite musician today
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вашага любімага музыканта на сённяшні дзень,
04:42
and your favorite musician 10 years ago.
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пасля -- 10 гадоў таму.
04:44
I put mine up on the screen to help you along.
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Я змясціў маіх на экране, каб дапамагчы вам.
04:46
Now we asked people
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Мы папрасілі даследуемых
04:48
to predict for us, to tell us
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прадказаць,
04:50
how much money they would pay right now
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колькі грошаў яны б сёння заплацілі,
04:53
to see their current favorite musician
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каб убачыць іх цяперашняга любімага музыканта
04:55
perform in concert 10 years from now,
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на канцэрце праз 10 гадоў,
04:58
and on average, people said they would pay
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ў сярэднім, людзі згадзіліся на
05:00
129 dollars for that ticket.
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129 даляраў за білет.
05:03
And yet, when we asked them
how much they would pay
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Але калі мы спыталі, колькі б яны аддалі,
05:06
to see the person who was their favorite
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каб убачыць чалавека, які быў іх любімым
05:08
10 years ago perform today,
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10 гадоў таму, але выступаў бы сёння,
05:10
they say only 80 dollars.
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яны адказалі -- 80 даляраў.
05:12
Now, in a perfectly rational world,
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У дасканала рацыянальным свеце,
05:14
these should be the same number,
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гэтая лічба павінна быць аднолькавай,
05:16
but we overpay for the opportunity
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на самой справе мы пераплочваем за магчымасць
05:18
to indulge our current preferences
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патураць нашым цяперашнім жаданням,
05:20
because we overestimate their stability.
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таму што мы пераацэньваем іх ўстойлівасць.
05:24
Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,
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Чаму гэта адбываецца? Мы не зусім ўпэўнены,
05:26
but it probably has to do
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але, верагодна, што гэта звязана
05:28
with the ease of remembering
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з лёгкасцю ўспамінаў,
05:30
versus the difficulty of imagining.
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у параўнанні з цяжкасцю ўяўлення.
05:32
Most of us can remember
who we were 10 years ago,
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Большасць з нас памятае,
кім мы былі 10 гадоў таму,
05:35
but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,
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але мае цяжкасць уявіць, кім мы станем,
05:38
and then we mistakenly think
that because it's hard to imagine,
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таму мы памылкова лічым,
што, калі гэта цяжка ўявіць -
05:41
it's not likely to happen.
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гэта наўрад ці адбудзецца.
05:43
Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"
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На жаль, калі людзі кажуць: "Цяжка ўявіць,"-
05:46
they're usually talking about
their own lack of imagination,
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гэта кажа пра адсутнасць ўяўлення,
05:49
and not about the unlikelihood
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а не пра малую верагоднасць
05:50
of the event that they're describing.
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падзеі, якую яны апісваюць.
05:53
The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.
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Сутнасць у тым, што час -- гэта магутная сіла.
05:57
It transforms our preferences.
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1643
Яна змяняе нашы перевагі.
05:59
It reshapes our values.
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Рэарганізуе нашы каштоўнасці.
06:01
It alters our personalities.
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1343
Ператварае нашу асобу.
06:02
We seem to appreciate this fact,
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Здаецца, што мы ўсведамляем гэты факт,
06:05
but only in retrospect.
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але толькі рэтраспектыўна.
06:06
Only when we look backwards do we realize
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2495
Толькі азірнуўшыся, мы разумеем,
06:09
how much change happens in a decade.
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як многа змянілася на працягу дзесяцігоддзя.
06:12
It's as if, for most of us,
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Нібы для большасці з нас
06:14
the present is a magic time.
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сучаснае -- гэта чароўны час.
06:16
It's a watershed on the timeline.
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2017
Гэта пераломны момант на часовай шкале.
06:18
It's the moment at which we finally
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Гэта момант, у якім мы, нарэшце,
06:20
become ourselves.
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робімся самімі сабой.
06:23
Human beings are works in progress
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Чалавечая істота -- гэта працэс развіцця,
06:25
that mistakenly think they're finished.
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які мы памылкова лічым, ужо спыніўся.
06:28
The person you are right now
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1790
Той, хто вы цяпер -- гэта
06:30
is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary
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3702
такая ж пераходная, мімалётная і часовая асоба,
06:34
as all the people you've ever been.
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якой вы калі-небудзь былі.
06:36
The one constant in our life is change.
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Адзіная канстанта ў нашым жыцці -- гэта змена.
06:40
Thank you.
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Дзякуй.
06:42
(Applause)
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(Апладысменты)
Translated by viktoryia smatrytskaya
Reviewed by Hanna Baradzina

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com