ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com
TED2014

Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self

Дэн Гилбэрт: Ирээдүйн тань сэтгэлзүй

Filmed:
5,798,493 views

"Хүн төрөлхтөн хэдийгээр өөрсдийгөө бүрэн төгс бүтээл гэж боддог ч энэ нь үргэлжилж буй бүтээл юм." Дэн Гилбэрт "Түүхийн төгсгөлийн төөрөгдөл" буюу яг одоогийн та бол насан туршийн та гэсэн үзэгдлийг судалсан судалгаанаасаа хуваалцаж байна.
- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
At every stage of our lives
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Бид амьдралынхаа бүхий л шатуудад
00:14
we make decisions that will profoundly influence
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ирээдүйн өөртөө
маш ихээр нөлөөлөхүйц
шийдвэрүүдийг гаргадаг.
00:18
the lives of the people we're going to become,
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Тэгээд зорьсон "Би"-дээ хүрмэгцээ
00:20
and then when we become those people,
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00:21
we're not always thrilled with the decisions we made.
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хийсэн сонголтондоо үргэлж сэтгэл
ханамжтай байдаггүй шүү дээ.
00:24
So young people pay good money
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Тиймдээ ч залуу хүмүүс их мөнгө төлж
00:26
to get tattoos removed that teenagers
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шивээсээ арилгаж байхад
өсвөр насныхан
00:29
paid good money to get.
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их мөнгө төлж шивээс
хийлгэж л байдаг.
00:30
Middle-aged people rushed to divorce people
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Хижээл насны хүмүүс салах гэж
яарч байхад,
00:33
who young adults rushed to marry.
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залуухан хүмүүс гэрлэх гэж
яарч байдаг.
00:35
Older adults work hard to lose
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Өндөр настангууд нь хижээл насныхны
олох гэж зүдэрдэг зүйлийг
хаях гэж зүдэрч байдаг.
00:38
what middle-aged adults worked hard to gain.
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Ар араасаа үргэлжилсээр.
00:41
On and on and on.
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00:42
The question is, as a psychologist,
that fascinates me is,
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Сэтгэл судлаачын үүднээс асуух асуулт бол
ирээдүйдээ бид ихэвчлэн харамсдаг юм бол
00:45
why do we make decisions
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00:47
that our future selves so often regret?
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бид яагаад шийдвэр гаргадаг юм бэ?
00:50
Now, I think one of the reasons --
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Тэгвэл би өнөөдөр
00:52
I'll try to convince you today —
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бид цаг хугацааны хүчний тухай
00:54
is that we have a fundamental misconception
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үндсээрээ буруу ойлголттой явдаг гэдгийг
00:56
about the power of time.
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батлах шалтгаануудын нэгийг ярья.
Амьдарлын явцад хүний өөрчлөлтийн хурд
00:59
Every one of you knows that the rate of change
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удааширдаг гэдгийг та бүхэн мэддэг.
01:01
slows over the human lifespan,
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Таны хүүхэд минутаар өсөж,
01:03
that your children seem to change by the minute
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гэтэл эцэг эх чинь жилээр
өөрчлөгдөж байх шиг санагддаг шүү дээ.
01:06
but your parents seem to change by the year.
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01:09
But what is the name of this magical point in life
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Гэтэл өөрчлөлтийн нисэх мэт хурд
мөлхөх мэт болж өөрчлөгддөг
01:12
where change suddenly goes
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амьдрал дахь тэр шидэт цэгийг юу гэдэг вэ?
01:14
from a gallop to a crawl?
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01:16
Is it teenage years? Is it middle age?
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Энэ нь өсвөр нас уу, хижээл нас уу,
эсвэл өндөр нас уу?
01:19
Is it old age? The answer, it turns out,
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Хариулт нь ихэнхи хүний хувьд
01:22
for most people, is now,
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одоо цаг болж таардаг.
01:24
wherever now happens to be.
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"Одоо" нь хаана ч байж болно.
01:27
What I want to convince you today
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Өнөөдөр та бүхэнд хүргэх гэсэн зүйл маань
01:29
is that all of us are walking around with an illusion,
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бид бүгдээрээ
өдийг хүртэл байхыг хүссэн
өөрийгөө бий болгож,
01:32
an illusion that history, our personal history,
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өөрсдийн зорьсон ирээдүйд хүрч мөн
01:35
has just come to an end,
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01:37
that we have just recently become
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үлдсэн амьдарлынхаа туршид зорих
01:39
the people that we were always meant to be
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өөрсдийн түүх дунд
01:42
and will be for the rest of our lives.
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төөрч будилж явдаг.
01:44
Let me give you some data to back up that claim.
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Тухайлбал зарим нэг мэдээллийг хүргэе.
01:46
So here's a study of change in people's
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Тэгэхээр энд, хүн цаг хугацааны туршид
үнэт зүйлээ хэрхэн өөрчилж буйг
харуулж байна.
01:49
personal values over time.
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01:51
Here's three values.
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Энд 3 үнэт зүйл байх юм.
01:53
Everybody here holds all of them,
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Хүн бүхэнд уг 3 байх боловч
01:54
but you probably know that as you grow,
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та өсөж нас суухын хэрээр
01:56
as you age, the balance of these values shifts.
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үнэт зүйлсийн ач холбогдол
өөрчлөгдөж буйг ойлгох болно.
02:00
So how does it do so?
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Гэтэл энэ бүхэн яаж явагддаг вэ?
02:02
Well, we asked thousands of people.
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Бид мянга мянган хүнээс асуулт асуухдаа
02:04
We asked half of them to predict for us
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тэдний хагасаас нь ирээдүйн
02:05
how much their values would
change in the next 10 years,
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10-н жилийн дотор хэр зэрэг
өөрчлөгдөх бол гэж,
02:08
and the others to tell us
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үлдсэн хагасаас нь
02:10
how much their values had
changed in the last 10 years.
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өнгөрсөн 10 жилд тэдний үнэт зүйл
хэр зэрэг өөрчлөгдөө бол гэж асуусан юм.
02:13
And this enabled us to do a really
interesting kind of analysis,
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Үр дүн нь бидэнд
үнэхээр сонирхолтой анализ
хийх боломжийг гаргаж өгсөн.
02:16
because it allowed us to compare the predictions
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Ингээд бид 18 настай
хүмүүсийн таамаглалыг
02:19
of people, say, 18 years old,
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28 настангынхтай нь гэх мэт
бүхий л насны хүмүүсийн
02:21
to the reports of people who were 28,
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02:23
and to do that kind of analysis
throughout the lifespan.
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таамаглалыг харьцуулсан.
Одоо юу олж мэдсэнээ хүргэе.
02:25
Here's what we found.
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02:27
First of all, you are right,
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Нэгдүгээрт, таны зөв өө,
02:28
change does slow down as we age,
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нас суухын хэрээр
өөрчлөлт удааширна.
02:31
but second, you're wrong,
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Хоёрдугаарт, та буруу бодож байна.
02:33
because it doesn't slow nearly as much as we think.
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Учир нь бидний бодож байсанчлан
төдийлөн ихээр удаашраагүй юм.
02:36
At every age, from 18 to 68 in our data set,
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18-68 нас хүртэл бүхий л
насныхны мэдээлэлд
02:40
people vastly underestimated how much change
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ирэх 10 жилийн таамаглал нь
хэт хол зөрж байсан.
02:44
they would experience over the next 10 years.
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Бид энэхүү төөрөгдөлийг
"түүхийн төгсгөл" гэж нэрлэдэг.
02:47
We call this the "end of history" illusion.
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02:50
To give you an idea of the magnitude of this effect,
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Энэхүү нөлөөг тайлбарлахын тулд
уг 2 шулууныг холбоод үзвэл
02:52
you can connect these two lines,
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02:53
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds
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18 настай залуу 50 настай ахмадтайгаа
02:56
anticipate changing only as much
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адил төсөөлөлтэй буйг
02:58
as 50-year-olds actually do.
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харж болох юм.
Энэ нь зөвхөн үнэт зүйл гэлтгүй,
бусад олон зүйл дээр ажиглагдана.
03:01
Now it's not just values. It's all sorts of other things.
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03:05
For example, personality.
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Жишээ нь, хувь хүний зан чанар.
03:07
Many of you know that psychologists now claim
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Та бүхний ихэнх нь мэднэ дээ,
сэтгэл судлаачид одоо
03:09
that there are five fundamental
dimensions of personality:
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хүний зан чанар үндсэн
5 бүлэгт хуваагдана гэдэг:
03:13
neuroticism, openness to experience,
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невротизм, нээлттэй байдал,
03:15
agreeableness, extraversion, and conscientiousness.
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бусадтай нийцэх байдал, экстраверс мөн
ухамсартай байдал.
03:19
Again, we asked people how much they expected
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Ахиад бид хүмүүсээс ирэх 10 жилд
03:21
to change over the next 10 years,
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хэр зэрэг өөрчлөгдөх вэ,
03:23
and also how much they had
changed over the last 10 years,
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мөн өнгөрсөн 10 жилд
хэр зэрэг өөрчлөгдсөн бэ гэж асуухад,
03:26
and what we found,
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танд танил болсон уг диаграмм
03:27
well, you're going to get used to
seeing this diagram over and over,
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дахин гарч ирэх бөгөөд
нас нэмэх тусам энэ өөрчлөлт
удаашраад байгаа ч
03:30
because once again the rate of change
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03:32
does slow as we age,
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ирээдүйн 10 жилд
03:33
but at every age, people underestimate
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тэдний зан чанар хэрхэн
өөрчлөгдөх талаарх таамаглал
03:37
how much their personalities will change
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бүхий л насныхны хувьд
03:39
in the next decade.
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их зөрсөн байсан юм.
03:41
And it isn't just ephemeral things
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Түүнчлэн энэ нь зөвхөн
нас богинотой үнэт зүйл,
зан чанарын тухай асуудал биш.
03:44
like values and personality.
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Та бусдын юунд
дуртай мөн дургүй гэх мэт
03:45
You can ask people about their likes and dislikes,
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ерөнхий сонголтыг нь асууж болох юм.
03:48
their basic preferences.
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03:50
For example, name your best friend,
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Жишээ нь, таны сайн найзын нэр,
амралтаа яаж өнгөрүүлэхийг хүсдэг вэ,
03:53
your favorite kind of vacation,
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03:54
what's your favorite hobby,
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хийх дуртай зүйл,
03:56
what's your favorite kind of music.
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дуртай дууны төрөл гэх мэт.
Хүмүүс үүнийг хялбархан хариулчихна.
03:58
People can name these things.
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03:59
We ask half of them to tell us,
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Бид тэдний хагасаас нь
04:01
"Do you think that that will
change over the next 10 years?"
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“Ирэх 10 жилд юу өөрчлөгдөнө
гэж бодож байна”,
04:05
and half of them to tell us,
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мөн үлдсэн хагасаас нь
04:06
"Did that change over the last 10 years?"
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“Өнгөрсөн 10 жилд юу өөрчлөгдөв”
талаар асуухад
04:09
And what we find, well, you've seen it twice now,
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тэдний өгсөн хариулт мөн л адил байсан.
04:11
and here it is again:
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Энэ ахиад л:
04:13
people predict that the friend they have now
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хүмүүс одоо найзалж буй найзтайгаа
04:16
is the friend they'll have in 10 years,
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10 жилийн турж найз байна гэж,
04:18
the vacation they most enjoy now is the one
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одоогийн хамгийн тааламжтай
амралт нь
10 жилийн дараа ч таалагдана
гэж таамагласан.
04:20
they'll enjoy in 10 years,
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04:21
and yet, people who are 10 years older all say,
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Гэтэл 10 насаар ахмад хүмүүс нь
04:24
"Eh, you know, that's really changed."
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“Ээ, тэгээд юмс өөрчлөгддөг шүү дээ”
гэж байх юм.
Энэ бүгд ямар
ач холбогдолтой юм бэ?
04:27
Does any of this matter?
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04:28
Is this just a form of mis-prediction
that doesn't have consequences?
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Энэ зүгээр л ямар нэг үр дүнгүй
буруу таамаглал уу?
04:31
No, it matters quite a bit, and
I'll give you an example of why.
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Үгүй ээ, үүнд бага ч болов асуудал бий,
яагаад гэдгийг нь тайлбарлая.
04:34
It bedevils our decision-making in important ways.
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Биднийг шийдвэр гаргахад
энэ зүйл их буруугаар нөлөөлдөг.
04:38
Bring to mind right now for yourself
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Одоо үед танд таалагддаг дуучин,
04:39
your favorite musician today
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бас 10 жилийн өмнө дуртай байсан дуучнаа
04:42
and your favorite musician 10 years ago.
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яг одоо төсөөл дөө.
04:44
I put mine up on the screen to help you along.
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Би та бүхэнд туслах үүднээс
өөрийн дуртай дуучнаа үзүүлье.
04:46
Now we asked people
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Ингээд бид хүмүүсээс
04:48
to predict for us, to tell us
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04:50
how much money they would pay right now
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ирээдүйд 10 жилийн дараа
тэр дуучны тоглолтыг үзэхийн тулд
04:53
to see their current favorite musician
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04:55
perform in concert 10 years from now,
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хэр их мөнгө төлөх вэ гэхэд
04:58
and on average, people said they would pay
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дунджаар хүмүүс тасалбарт
05:00
129 dollars for that ticket.
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129 доллар зарцуулна гэсэн.
05:03
And yet, when we asked them
how much they would pay
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Үүний дараагаар бид 10 жилийн
өмнө дуртай байсан
05:06
to see the person who was their favorite
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дуучны тоглолтыг өнөөдөр үзнэ гэвэл
05:08
10 years ago perform today,
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хэр их мөнгө зарцуулах бол гэхэд
05:10
they say only 80 dollars.
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тэд 80 доллар л гэж хэлсэн.
05:12
Now, in a perfectly rational world,
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Зөв сэтгэдэг хүнд
05:14
these should be the same number,
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2114
эдгээр тоо ижил байх ёстой атал
05:16
but we overpay for the opportunity
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2511
бид одоогийн нөхцөл байдалдаа автан
илүү ихийг төлдөг.
05:18
to indulge our current preferences
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306863
2103
Учир нь бид тогтвортой байдлыг нь
хэт их үнэлдэг.
05:20
because we overestimate their stability.
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3320
Яагаад ийм зүйл болж байна вэ?
Бид сайн мэдэхгүй байна.
05:24
Why does this happen? We're not entirely sure,
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2448
05:26
but it probably has to do
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1546
Гэхдээ энэ нь санахын хялбар чанар болон
05:28
with the ease of remembering
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2179
төсөөлөн бодох бэрхшээлээс болдог байх.
05:30
versus the difficulty of imagining.
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2521
05:32
Most of us can remember
who we were 10 years ago,
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Бидний ихэнх нь 10 жилийн өмнөх
өөрсдийгөө санаж чаддаг,
05:35
but we find it hard to imagine who we're going to be,
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2739
гэтэл бид ирээдүйд хэн байхаа
төсөөлж чаддагүй.
05:38
and then we mistakenly think
that because it's hard to imagine,
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3005
Ингээд төсөөлж чадахгүй байгаа юм чинь
05:41
it's not likely to happen.
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2074
болохгүй байх гэж андуурдаг.
05:43
Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine that,"
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3255
Уучлаарай, "наадахыг чинь төсөөлж
чадахгүй нь" гэж хүмүүс хэлэхдээ
05:46
they're usually talking about
their own lack of imagination,
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2948
тайлбарлаж буй зүйлээ үгүйсгэсэндээ бус,
05:49
and not about the unlikelihood
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1492
ургуулан бодох чадваргүйгээ л
харуулж байгаа юм.
05:50
of the event that they're describing.
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2990
05:53
The bottom line is, time is a powerful force.
143
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3567
Төгсгөлд нь, цаг хугацаа бол
хүчирхэг зэвсэг.
05:57
It transforms our preferences.
144
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1643
Бидний сонголтыг өөрчилдөг.
05:59
It reshapes our values.
145
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2118
Бидний үнэт зүйлийг дахин тодорхойлдог.
Зан чанарыг ч бас.
06:01
It alters our personalities.
146
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1343
06:02
We seem to appreciate this fact,
147
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2567
Бид цаг хугацааны энэхүү чанарыг
зөвхөн өнгөрснөө дурсахдаа л
авч хэлэлцдэг мэт.
06:05
but only in retrospect.
148
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1561
06:06
Only when we look backwards do we realize
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2495
Бид өнгөрснөө өнгийж харахдаа л
06:09
how much change happens in a decade.
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3272
10 жилийн хугацаанд ямар их
өөрчлөлт гарсныг анзаардаг.
06:12
It's as if, for most of us,
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360518
1679
Бидний ихэнхид
"одоо" бол шидэт цаг мэт санагддаг.
06:14
the present is a magic time.
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2169
06:16
It's a watershed on the timeline.
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2017
Цаг хугацааны дараалалд
яг л усны хагалбар мэт.
06:18
It's the moment at which we finally
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2344
Энэ бол би өөрөө
эцсийн дүнд "би" болох мөч юм.
06:20
become ourselves.
155
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2503
06:23
Human beings are works in progress
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Хүмүүн гэдэг бол хийж дуусаагүй
бүтээл болохоос
06:25
that mistakenly think they're finished.
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2923
бидний андуурдаг төгс бүтээл биш юм.
06:28
The person you are right now
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1790
Яг одоогийн та бол
06:30
is as transient, as fleeting and as temporary
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энэ л хэсэгхэн хугацаанд байх та,
мөн өмнө нь байсан бүх тан шиг
түр зуурын бас үргэлж хувьсан өөрчлөгдөнө.
06:34
as all the people you've ever been.
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06:36
The one constant in our life is change.
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Бидний амьдралын ганц тогтмол зүйл бол
өөрчлөлт.
06:40
Thank you.
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2096
Баярлалаа.
(Алга ташилт)
06:42
(Applause)
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Translated by Билэгүүтээ Ү.
Reviewed by Indra Ganzorig

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com