ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com
TED2014

Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self

Den Gilbert (Dan Gilbert): Psihologija vašeg budućeg ja

Filmed:
5,798,493 views

"Ljudska bića su "radovi u toku" koji pogrešno misle da su završeni." Den Gilbert deli nedavno istraživanje o fenomenu koji naziva"kraj iluzije istorije", gde mi nekako zamišljamo da je osoba koja smo sada, osoba koja ćemo biti ostatak vremena. Nagoveštaj: to nije slučaj.
- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
At everyсваки stageфаза of our livesживи
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U svakom periodu svog života
00:14
we make decisionsОдлуке that will profoundlyдубоко influenceутицај
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donosimo odluke koje će
duboko uticati
00:18
the livesживи of the people we're going to becomeпостати,
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na živote ljudi kakvi ćemo postati,
00:20
and then when we becomeпостати those people,
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a onda, kada postanemo ti ljudi,
00:21
we're not always thrilledузбуђени with the decisionsОдлуке we madeмаде.
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nismo uvek oduševljeni
odlukama koje smo doneli.
00:24
So youngмлади people payплатите good moneyновац
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Dakle, mladi ljudi skupo plaćaju
00:26
to get tattoostetovaže removedуклоњен that teenagersТинејџери
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da uklone tetovaže koje su
kao tinejdžeri skupo platili
00:29
paidплаћени good moneyновац to get.
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da bi ih stavili.
00:30
Middle-agedSrednjih godina people rushedрусхед to divorceразвод people
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Sredovečni ljudi požuruju
da se razvedu od osoba
00:33
who youngмлади adultsодрасли rushedрусхед to marryоженити се.
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koje su kao mladi požurili da ožene.
00:35
OlderStariji adultsодрасли work hardтешко to loseизгубити
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Stariji odrasli naporno rade da izgube
00:38
what middle-agedсредњих година adultsодрасли workedрадио је hardтешко to gainдобит.
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što su kao sredovečni
naporno radili da steknu.
00:41
On and on and on.
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Iznova i iznova.
00:42
The questionпитање is, as a psychologistпсихолог,
that fascinatesfascinira me is,
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Pitanje, koje me kao psihologa,
fascinira je
00:45
why do we make decisionsОдлуке
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zašto donosimo odluke
00:47
that our futureбудућност selvessamih sebe so oftenчесто regretžaljenje?
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koje naše buduće mi
tako često zažali?
00:50
Now, I think one of the reasonsразлоге --
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Mislim da je jedan od razloga -
pokušaću da vas ubedim večeras -
00:52
I'll try to convinceубедити you todayданас
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00:54
is that we have a fundamentalфундаментално misconceptionзаблуда
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taj što imamo u osnovi
pogrešno shvatanje
00:56
about the powerмоћ of time.
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o moćnom uticaju vremena.
00:59
EverySvaki one of you knowsзна that the rateстопа of changeпромена
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Svako od vas zna da se
brzina promena
01:01
slowsusporava over the humanљудско lifespanживотни век,
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usporava tokom ljudskog
životnog veka,
01:03
that your childrenдеца seemИзгледа to changeпромена by the minuteминута
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da izgleda da se vaša deca
menjaju kroz minute,
01:06
but your parentsродитељи seemИзгледа to changeпромена by the yearгодине.
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ali se vaši roditelji menjaju kroz godine.
01:09
But what is the nameиме of this magicalмагичан pointтачка in life
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Ali kako se zove taj
magični trenutak u životu
01:12
where changeпромена suddenlyизненада goesиде
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gde promena iznenada pređe
01:14
from a gallopgalop to a crawlпузи?
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iz galopa u milenje?
01:16
Is it teenageтинејџери yearsгодине? Is it middleсредина ageстарост?
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Da li su to adolescentske godine?
Srednje godine?
01:19
Is it oldстари ageстарост? The answerодговор, it turnsокреће се out,
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Da li je starost? Odgovor,
ispostavilo se,
01:22
for mostнајвише people, is now,
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za većinu ljudi je - sada,
01:24
whereverгде год now happensсе дешава to be.
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kad god bilo to sada.
01:27
What I want to convinceубедити you todayданас
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Želim da vas ubedim danas
01:29
is that all of us are walkingХодање around with an illusionилузија,
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da svi mi šetamo naokolo
sa iluzijom,
01:32
an illusionилузија that historyисторија, our personalлични historyисторија,
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iluzijom da je istorija,
naša lična istorija,
01:35
has just come to an endкрај,
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upravo završena,
01:37
that we have just recentlyнедавно becomeпостати
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i da smo tek nedavno postali
01:39
the people that we were always meantмислио to be
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ljudi kakvi smo oduvek mislili biti
01:42
and will be for the restодмор of our livesживи.
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i bićemo takvi ostatak života.
Daću vam neke podatke
koji podržavaju tu tvrdnju.
01:44
Let me give you some dataподаци to back up that claimпотраживање.
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01:46
So here'sево a studyстудија of changeпромена in people'sљуди
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Ovo je istraživanje o promeni
01:49
personalлични valuesвредности over time.
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u ličnim vrednostima ljudi tokom vremena.
01:51
Here'sEvo threeтри valuesвредности.
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Evo tri vrednosti.
01:53
EverybodySvi here holdsдржи all of them,
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Svi ovde imaju sve tri,
01:54
but you probablyвероватно know that as you growрасту,
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ali verovatno znate da
kako odrastate,
01:56
as you ageстарост, the balanceбаланс of these valuesвредности shiftsсмене.
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kako starite, ravnoteža između
ovih vrednosti se menja.
02:00
So how does it do so?
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Kako se to dešava?
02:02
Well, we askedпитао thousandsхиљаде of people.
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Pa, pitali smo hiljade ljudi.
02:04
We askedпитао halfпола of them to predictпредвидети for us
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Pitali smo polovinu da nam predvide
02:05
how much theirњихова valuesвредности would
changeпромена in the nextследећи 10 yearsгодине,
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koliko će se njihove vrednosti promeniti
u narednih 10 godina,
02:08
and the othersдруги to tell us
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a ostale da nam kažu
02:10
how much theirњихова valuesвредности had
changedпромењено in the last 10 yearsгодине.
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koliko su se njihove vrednosti
promenile u poslednjih 10 godina.
02:13
And this enabledомогућено us to do a really
interestingзанимљиво kindкинд of analysisанализа,
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To nam je omogućilo da uradimo
veoma interesantnu analizu,
02:16
because it allowedдозвољен us to compareупоредити the predictionsprognoze
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jer nam je omogućeno da
uporedimo predviđanja
02:19
of people, say, 18 yearsгодине oldстари,
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ljudi, recimo, od 18 godina,
02:21
to the reportsизвештаји of people who were 28,
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sa izjavama ljudi od 28,
02:23
and to do that kindкинд of analysisанализа
throughoutтоком the lifespanживотни век.
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i da uradimo takvu analizu
kroz životni vek.
02:25
Here'sEvo what we foundнашао.
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Evo šta smo otkrili.
02:27
First of all, you are right,
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Kao prvo, u pravu ste,
02:28
changeпромена does slowспор down as we ageстарост,
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promena se usporava kako starimo,
02:31
but secondдруго, you're wrongпогрешно,
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ali kao drugo, grešite,
02:33
because it doesn't slowспор nearlyскоро as much as we think.
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zato što ne usporava ni približno
onoliko koliko smo mislili.
02:36
At everyсваки ageстарост, from 18 to 68 in our dataподаци setкомплет,
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U svakom uzrastu, od 18 do 68,
u našem istraživanju,
02:40
people vastlyогромно underestimatedpodcenio how much changeпромена
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ljudi veoma potcenjuju
koliko promene
02:44
they would experienceискуство over the nextследећи 10 yearsгодине.
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će doživeti u sledećih 10 godina.
02:47
We call this the "endкрај of historyисторија" illusionилузија.
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Mi to zovemo iluzijom "kraja istorije".
02:50
To give you an ideaидеја of the magnitudeвеличина of this effectефекат,
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Da bih vam dao ideju
o veličini ovog efekta,
02:52
you can connectцоннецт these two linesлиније,
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povežemo ove dve linije,
02:53
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds-године године
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i ovde vidite da 18-godišnjaci
02:56
anticipateочекивати changingпромена only as much
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predviđaju promenu isto koliko
02:58
as 50-year-olds-године године actuallyзаправо do.
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i 50-godišnjaci.
03:01
Now it's not just valuesвредности. It's all sortsсортс of other things.
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Nisu to samo vrednosti.
Ima tu raznih stvari.
03:05
For exampleпример, personalityличност.
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Na primer, ličnost.
03:07
ManyMnogi of you know that psychologistsпсихолози now claimпотраживање
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Mnogi od vas znaju da psiholozi
danas tvrde da
03:09
that there are fiveпет fundamentalфундаментално
dimensionsдимензије of personalityличност:
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postoji 5 osnovnih crta ličnosti:
03:13
neuroticismneuroticism, opennessотвореност to experienceискуство,
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neuroticizam, otvorenost ka iskustvu,
03:15
agreeablenessagreeableness, extraversionextraversion, and conscientiousnessсавесност.
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saradljivost, ekstrovertnost i savesnost.
03:19
Again, we askedпитао people how much they expectedочекиван
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Pitali smo ljude koliko
očekuju da se promene
03:21
to changeпромена over the nextследећи 10 yearsгодине,
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u sledećih 10 godina,
03:23
and alsoтакође how much they had
changedпромењено over the last 10 yearsгодине,
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kao i koliko su se promenili
u predhodnih 10 godina,
03:26
and what we foundнашао,
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i šta smo otkrili?
03:27
well, you're going to get used to
seeingвиди this diagramдијаграм over and over,
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Navići ćete se da iznova
gledate ovaj dijagram,
03:30
because onceједном again the rateстопа of changeпромена
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zato što, ponovo, brzina promene
03:32
does slowспор as we ageстарост,
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usporava kako starimo,
03:33
but at everyсваки ageстарост, people underestimateподцијенити
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ali u svakom uzrastu,
ljudi potcenjuju
03:37
how much theirњихова personalitiesличности will changeпромена
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koliko će se njihova ličnost promeniti
03:39
in the nextследећи decadeдекада.
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u sledećoj deceniji.
03:41
And it isn't just ephemeraldugotrajna things
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I to nije samo prolazna stvar,
03:44
like valuesвредности and personalityличност.
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kao što su vrednosti i ličnost.
03:45
You can askпитати people about theirњихова likesсвиђа and dislikesNe voli,
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Možete pitati ljude šta vole
a šta ne vole,
03:48
theirњихова basicосновно preferencesželjene postavke.
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njihove osnovne sklonosti.
03:50
For exampleпример, nameиме your bestнајбоље friendпријатељ,
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Na primer, ko vam je najbolji prijatelj,
03:53
your favoriteомиљени kindкинд of vacationodmor,
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omiljen način odmora,
03:54
what's your favoriteомиљени hobbyhobi,
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koji vam je omiljeni hobi,
03:56
what's your favoriteомиљени kindкинд of musicмузика.
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koja vam je omiljena muzika.
03:58
People can nameиме these things.
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Ljudi vam mogu reći te stvari.
03:59
We askпитати halfпола of them to tell us,
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Polovinu njih smo pitali:
04:01
"Do you think that that will
changeпромена over the nextследећи 10 yearsгодине?"
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"Mislite li da će se to promeniti
u sledećih 10 godina?"
a drugu polovinu smo pitali:
04:05
and halfпола of them to tell us,
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04:06
"Did that changeпромена over the last 10 yearsгодине?"
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"Da li se to promenilo u
poslednjih 10 godina?"
04:09
And what we find, well, you've seenвиђено it twiceдва пута now,
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I otkrili smo, videli ste već dvaput
04:11
and here it is again:
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i evo ga ponovo:
04:13
people predictпредвидети that the friendпријатељ they have now
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ljudi predviđaju da su prijatelji
koje imaju sada
oni koje će imati i za 10 godina,
04:16
is the friendпријатељ they'llони ће have in 10 yearsгодине,
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04:18
the vacationodmor they mostнајвише enjoyуживати now is the one
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da odmor u kome najviše uživaju sada
04:20
they'llони ће enjoyуживати in 10 yearsгодине,
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uživaće i za 10 godina,
04:21
and yetјош увек, people who are 10 yearsгодине olderстарији all say,
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a opet, ljudi koji su 10 godina stariji,
svi kažu,
04:24
"EhEh, you know, that's really changedпромењено."
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"Eh, znate, to se zaista promenilo."
Da li je išta od ovoga važno?
04:27
Does any of this matterматерија?
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04:28
Is this just a formобразац of mis-predictionpogresan predviđanja
that doesn't have consequencesпоследице?
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Da li je ovo samo pogrešno predviđanje
koje nema nikakve posledice?
04:31
No, it mattersпитања quiteприлично a bitмало, and
I'll give you an exampleпример of why.
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Ne, prilično je važno,
i daću vam primer zašto.
04:34
It bedevilsбедевилс our decision-makingодлучивати in importantважно waysначини.
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To značajno otežava naše
donošenje odluka.
04:38
BringDonesi to mindум right now for yourselfсами
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Prisetite se sada
04:39
your favoriteомиљени musicianмузичар todayданас
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vašeg omiljenog muzičara danas
04:42
and your favoriteомиљени musicianмузичар 10 yearsгодине agoпре.
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i vašeg omiljenog muzičara
pre 10 godina.
04:44
I put mineмој up on the screenекран to help you alongзаједно.
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Postavio sam svog na ekran
da vam pomognem.
04:46
Now we askedпитао people
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Pitali smo ljude
04:48
to predictпредвидети for us, to tell us
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da predvide i da nam kažu
04:50
how much moneyновац they would payплатите right now
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koliko bi novca danas platili
04:53
to see theirњихова currentТренутни favoriteомиљени musicianмузичар
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da vide svog omiljenog muzičara
04:55
performизводити in concertконцерт 10 yearsгодине from now,
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na koncertu za 10 godina
04:58
and on averageпросек, people said they would payплатите
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i u proseku, rekli su da bi platili
05:00
129 dollarsдолара for that ticketкарта.
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129 dolara za kartu.
05:03
And yetјош увек, when we askedпитао them
how much they would payплатите
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A opet, kada smo ih pitali
koliko bi platili
05:06
to see the personособа who was theirњихова favoriteомиљени
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da vide muzičara koji im je bio omiljen
05:08
10 yearsгодине agoпре performизводити todayданас,
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pre 10 godina,
kako nastupa danas,
05:10
they say only 80 dollarsдолара.
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rekli su samo 80 dolara.
05:12
Now, in a perfectlyсавршено rationalрационално worldсвет,
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U savršeno racionalnom svetu,
05:14
these should be the sameисти numberброј,
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ovo bi trebalo biti isti broj,
05:16
but we overpaypretplata for the opportunityприлика
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ali mi pretplaćujemo mogućnost
05:18
to indulgeUdovolji our currentТренутни preferencesželjene postavke
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da zadovoljimo naše trenutne prioritete
05:20
because we overestimateprecenjujete theirњихова stabilityстабилност.
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zato što precenjujemo njihovu stabilnost.
05:24
Why does this happenдесити се? We're not entirelyу потпуности sure,
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Zašto se to događa?
Nismo u potpunosti sigurni,
05:26
but it probablyвероватно has to do
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ali verovatno ima veze
05:28
with the easeублажити, лакоца of rememberingпамћење
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sa lakoćom pamćenja
05:30
versusнаспрам the difficultyтешкоћа of imaginingumislio.
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naspram težine zamišljanja.
Većina nas se može prisetiti
kakvi smo bili pre 10 godina,
05:32
MostVećina of us can rememberзапамтити
who we were 10 yearsгодине agoпре,
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05:35
but we find it hardтешко to imagineзамислити who we're going to be,
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ali nam je teško da zamislimo
kakvi ćemo biti za 10 godina,
05:38
and then we mistakenlygreškom think
that because it's hardтешко to imagineзамислити,
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i onda pogrešno mislimo
da pošto nam je teško da zamislimo
05:41
it's not likelyвероватно to happenдесити се.
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male su šanse da će se i desiti.
05:43
Sorry, when people say "I can't imagineзамислити that,"
139
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Izvinite, kad ljudi kažu:
"To ne mogu da zamislim,"
05:46
they're usuallyобично talkingпричају about
theirњихова ownвластити lackнедостатак of imaginationмашту,
140
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2948
uglavnom pričaju
o sopstvenom nedostatku mašte,
05:49
and not about the unlikelihoodunlikelihood
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a ne o neverovatnosti
05:50
of the eventдогађај that they're describingописујући.
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događaja koji opisuju.
05:53
The bottomдно lineлине is, time is a powerfulмоћан forceсила.
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Suština je, vreme je moćna sila.
05:57
It transformsтрансформише our preferencesželjene postavke.
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Ono menja naše sklonosti.
05:59
It reshapessferi our valuesвредности.
145
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Ono menja naše vrednovanje.
06:01
It altersAko se menja our personalitiesличности.
146
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Ono menja našu ličnost.
06:02
We seemИзгледа to appreciateценити this factчињеница,
147
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Mi izgleda cenimo tu činjenicu,
06:05
but only in retrospectretrospektivi.
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ali samo u retrospektivi.
06:06
Only when we look backwardsуназад do we realizeсхватите
149
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Samo kada pogledamo unazad shvatimo
06:09
how much changeпромена happensсе дешава in a decadeдекада.
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koliko se promena desilo u deceniji.
06:12
It's as if, for mostнајвише of us,
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To je, za većinu, kao da je
06:14
the presentпоклон is a magicмагија time.
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sadašnjost magični trenutak.
06:16
It's a watershedслив on the timelineVremenska osa.
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2017
To je kao prekretnica
na vremenskoj liniji,
06:18
It's the momentтренутак at whichкоја we finallyконачно
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To je momenat u kome konačno
06:20
becomeпостати ourselvesсами.
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postajemo mi.
06:23
HumanLjudski beingsбића are worksИзвођење радова in progressнапредак
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Ljudska bića su "radovi u toku"
06:25
that mistakenlygreškom think they're finishedготов.
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koji pogrešno misle da su završeni.
06:28
The personособа you are right now
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Osoba koja ste trenutno
06:30
is as transientпрелазни, as fleetingprolazno and as temporaryпривремени
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podjednako je prolazna,
nestalna i privremena
06:34
as all the people you've ever been.
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kao što ste uvek i bili.
06:36
The one constantконстантно in our life is changeпромена.
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Jedina konstanta
u našim životima je promena.
06:40
Thank you.
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Hvala.
06:42
(ApplauseAplauz)
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(Aplauz)
Translated by Sandra Zerjal
Reviewed by Mile Živković

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com

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