ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com
TED2014

Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self

Dan Gilbert: Psihologija vašega bodočega jaza

Filmed:
5,798,493 views

"Ljudje so dela v teku, ki si zmotno mislijo, da so končana." Dan Gilbert z nami deli rezultate nedavne študije pojava, ki ga imenuje "iluzija konca zgodovine," kjer si nekako predstavljamo, da bo oseba, ki smo zdaj, ostala nespremenjena za vedno. Namig: temu ni tako.
- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
At everyvsak stagestopnja of our livesživi
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Na vsaki stopnji življenja
00:14
we make decisionsodločitve that will profoundlygloboko influencevpliva
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sprejemamo odločitve,
ki bodo globoko vplivale
na življenja ljudi, v katere
se bomo spremenili
00:18
the livesživi of the people we're going to becomepostane,
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00:20
and then when we becomepostane those people,
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in ko postanemo ti ljudje,
00:21
we're not always thrillednavdušeni with the decisionsodločitve we madeizdelane.
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nismo vedno navdušeni
nad preteklimi odločitvami.
00:24
So youngmladi people payplačati good moneydenar
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Zato mladi dobro plačujejo
za odstranjevanje tetovaž,
00:26
to get tattoostetovaže removedodstraniti that teenagersnajstniki
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za katere so kot najstniki dobro plačali.
00:29
paidplačani good moneydenar to get.
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00:30
Middle-agedSrednjih let people rushedrushed to divorceločitev people
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Ljudje v srednjih letih
hitijo z ločitvami od ljudi,
00:33
who youngmladi adultsodrasli rushedrushed to marryporoči se.
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s katerimi so se kot
mladi odrasli hiteli poročati.
00:35
OlderStarejši adultsodrasli work hardtežko to loseizgubi
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Starejši odrasli trdo delajo,
da se znebijo tistega,
00:38
what middle-agedsrednjih let adultsodrasli workeddelal hardtežko to gaindobiček.
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za kar so v srednjih letih
trdo delali, da bi imeli.
00:41
On and on and on.
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In tako naprej in naprej.
00:42
The questionvprašanje is, as a psychologistpsiholog,
that fascinatesfascinira me is,
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Kot psihologa me zato zanima vprašanje,
00:45
why do we make decisionsodločitve
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zakaj sprejemamo odločitve,
00:47
that our futureprihodnost selvessebe so oftenpogosto regretŽal?
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ki jih naši poznejši mi
tako pogosto obžalujejo.
Mislim, da je eden od razlogov -
to vas bom želel danes prepričati -
00:50
Now, I think one of the reasonsrazlogov --
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00:52
I'll try to convinceprepričajte you todaydanes
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00:54
is that we have a fundamentaltemeljno misconceptionnapačno razumevanje
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naše temeljno zmotno prepričanje
00:56
about the powermoč of time.
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o moči časa.
00:59
EveryVsak one of you knowsve that the rateoceniti of changesprememba
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Vsi se zavedamo, da se hitrost sprememb
zmanjša tekom človekovega življenja,
01:01
slowsupočasni over the humančlovek lifespanživljenjska doba,
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01:03
that your childrenotroci seemzdi se to changesprememba by the minuteminuto
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da se vaši otroci navidez spreminjajo
iz minute v minuto,
01:06
but your parentsstarši seemzdi se to changesprememba by the yearleto.
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vaši starši pa iz leta v leto.
01:09
But what is the nameime of this magicalčarobno pointtočka in life
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Kako pa se imenuje
tista čarobna točka v življenju,
01:12
where changesprememba suddenlynenadoma goesgre
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v kateri se ta hitrost nenadoma spremeni
iz galopa v plazenje?
01:14
from a gallopgalop to a crawlpajkanje?
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01:16
Is it teenagenajstnica yearslet? Is it middlesredi agestarost?
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Je to adolescenca? So to srednja leta?
01:19
Is it oldstar agestarost? The answerodgovor, it turnszavrti out,
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Je to starost?
Izkazalo se je,
01:22
for mostnajbolj people, is now,
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da je odgovor za večino ljudi zdaj,
01:24
whereverkjerkoli now happensse zgodi to be.
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kjerkoli pač zdaj je.
01:27
What I want to convinceprepričajte you todaydanes
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Kar vas hočem danes prepričati je to,
da vsi hodimo naokrog z iluzijo,
01:29
is that all of us are walkinghoditi around with an illusioniluzija,
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01:32
an illusioniluzija that historyzgodovina, our personalosebno historyzgodovina,
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z iluzijo, da se je zgodovina,
naša osebna zgodovina, pravkar zaključila,
01:35
has just come to an endkonec,
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01:37
that we have just recentlypred kratkim becomepostane
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da smo pravkar postali ljudje,
01:39
the people that we were always meantpomeni to be
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kakršni naj bi vedno bili
01:42
and will be for the restpočitek of our livesživi.
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in bomo taki do konca življenja.
01:44
Let me give you some datapodatkov to back up that claimzahtevek.
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Tu je nekaj podatkov
v podporo moji trditvi.
01:46
So here'sTukaj je a studyštudija of changesprememba in people'sljudje
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Tu je študija o spremembi
osebnih vrednot v času.
01:49
personalosebno valuesvrednosti over time.
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01:51
Here'sTukaj je threetri valuesvrednosti.
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Tu so tri vrednote.
01:53
EverybodyVsi here holdsdrži all of them,
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Vsak med nami jih ima,
ampak verjetno veste, da ko odraščate,
01:54
but you probablyverjetno know that as you growrastejo,
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01:56
as you agestarost, the balanceravnovesje of these valuesvrednosti shiftspremiki.
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ko se starate,
se ravnovesje med njimi premika.
02:00
So how does it do so?
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In kako se to zgodi?
02:02
Well, we askedvprašal thousandstisoče of people.
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No, vprašali smo tisoče ljudi.
02:04
We askedvprašal halfpol of them to predictnapovedati for us
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Polovico smo prosili,
naj predvidijo,
02:05
how much theirnjihovi valuesvrednosti would
changesprememba in the nextNaslednji 10 yearslet,
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koliko se bodo njihove vrednote
spremenile v naslednjih desetih letih
02:08
and the othersdrugi to tell us
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in drugo polovico, naj pove,
02:10
how much theirnjihovi valuesvrednosti had
changedspremenjeno in the last 10 yearslet.
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koliko so se njihove vrednote spremenile
v zadnjih desetih letih.
02:13
And this enabledomogočeno us to do a really
interestingzanimivo kindvrste of analysisanaliza,
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In to nam je omogočilo
zelo zanimivo analizo,
02:16
because it alloweddovoljeno us to compareprimerjati the predictionsnapovedi
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saj nam je omogočilo primerjavo
predvidevanj ljudi, recimo starih 18 let,
02:19
of people, say, 18 yearslet oldstar,
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02:21
to the reportsporočila of people who were 28,
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s poročili tistih, starih 28 let
02:23
and to do that kindvrste of analysisanaliza
throughoutves čas the lifespanživljenjska doba.
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in tako primerjavo za
vsa življenjska obdobja.
02:25
Here'sTukaj je what we foundnajdemo.
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Tu so ugotovitve.
02:27
First of all, you are right,
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Najprej, prav imate,
sprememba se upočasni s starostjo,
02:28
changesprememba does slowpočasi down as we agestarost,
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02:31
but seconddrugič, you're wrongnarobe,
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ampak po drugi strani nimate prav,
02:33
because it doesn't slowpočasi nearlyskoraj as much as we think.
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ker se ne upočasni za
toliko, kot mislimo, da se.
02:36
At everyvsak agestarost, from 18 to 68 in our datapodatkov setnastavite,
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Pri vseh starostih,
od 18 do 68 v naši študiji,
02:40
people vastlyzelo dobro underestimatedpodcenjevati how much changesprememba
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so ljudje precej
podcenjevali obseg sprememb,
02:44
they would experienceizkušnje over the nextNaslednji 10 yearslet.
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ki jih bodo doživeli
v naslednjih 10 letih.
02:47
We call this the "endkonec of historyzgodovina" illusioniluzija.
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Temu pravimo iluzija "konca zgodovine".
02:50
To give you an ideaideja of the magnitudevelikost of this effectučinek,
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Za boljšo predstavo velikosti tega učinka,
povežite ti dve črti
02:52
you can connectpovezati these two lineslinije,
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02:53
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds-letnice
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in lahko vidite, da osemnajstletniki
predvidijo le tak obseg spremembe,
02:56
anticipatepričakujte changingzamenjati only as much
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02:58
as 50-year-olds-letnice actuallydejansko do.
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kot ga dejansko doživijo petdesetletniki.
03:01
Now it's not just valuesvrednosti. It's all sortsvrste of other things.
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In niso samo vrednote. So še druge stvari.
03:05
For exampleprimer, personalityosebnost.
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Na primer, osebnost.
03:07
ManyVeliko of you know that psychologistspsihologi now claimzahtevek
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Mnogi veste, da psihologi danes trdijo,
03:09
that there are fivepet fundamentaltemeljno
dimensionsdimenzije of personalityosebnost:
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da obstaja pet temeljnih
razsežnosti osebnosti:
03:13
neuroticismneuroticism, opennessodprtost to experienceizkušnje,
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nevroticizem, odprtost za izkušnje,
03:15
agreeablenessagreeableness, extraversionextraversion, and conscientiousnessvestnost.
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raven strinjanja, ekstravertiranost
in vestnost.
03:19
Again, we askedvprašal people how much they expectedpričakovano
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Spet smo vprašali ljudi,
koliko pričakujejo, da se bodo spremenili
03:21
to changesprememba over the nextNaslednji 10 yearslet,
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v naslednjih 10 letih, in koliko menijo,
da so se spremenili v zadnjih 10 letih
03:23
and alsotudi how much they had
changedspremenjeno over the last 10 yearslet,
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03:26
and what we foundnajdemo,
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in odkrili smo,
03:27
well, you're going to get used to
seeingvidenje this diagramdiagram over and over,
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no, navadili se boste gledati
tale graf spet in spet,
03:30
because onceenkrat again the rateoceniti of changesprememba
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saj se stopnja sprememb upočasni,
ko se staramo,
03:32
does slowpočasi as we agestarost,
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03:33
but at everyvsak agestarost, people underestimatepodcenjuj
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ampak pri vsaki starosti
ljudje podcenjujejo,
03:37
how much theirnjihovi personalitiesosebnosti will changesprememba
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koliko se bo njihova osebnost spremenila
03:39
in the nextNaslednji decadedesetletje.
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v naslednjem desetletju.
03:41
And it isn't just ephemeralKratkotrajan things
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In to niso samo minljive reči
kot vrednote in osebnost.
03:44
like valuesvrednosti and personalityosebnost.
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03:45
You can askvprašajte people about theirnjihovi likesVšeč mi je and dislikesMara,
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Lahko jih vprašate,
kaj imajo radi in kaj ne,
03:48
theirnjihovi basicosnovno preferencesnastavitve.
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njihove osnovne preference.
03:50
For exampleprimer, nameime your bestnajboljši friendprijatelj,
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Recimo, kdo je vaš najboljši prijatelj,
03:53
your favoritenajljubši kindvrste of vacationpočitnice,
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najljubši kraj za počitnice,
najljubši hobi,
03:54
what's your favoritenajljubši hobbyhobi,
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03:56
what's your favoritenajljubši kindvrste of musicglasba.
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najljubša zvrst glasbe.
03:58
People can nameime these things.
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Ljudje lahko te reči imenujejo.
Polovico prosimo, da nam pove:
03:59
We askvprašajte halfpol of them to tell us,
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04:01
"Do you think that that will
changesprememba over the nextNaslednji 10 yearslet?"
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"Ali menite, da se bo to v
naslednjih desetih letih spremenilo?"
04:05
and halfpol of them to tell us,
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in polovico, da nam pove:
04:06
"Did that changesprememba over the last 10 yearslet?"
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"Se je to v zadnjih
desetih letih spremenilo?"
04:09
And what we find, well, you've seenvidel it twicedvakrat now,
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in kar najdemo, zdaj ste že dvakrat videli
04:11
and here it is again:
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in spet je tu:
04:13
people predictnapovedati that the friendprijatelj they have now
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ljudje predvidevajo, da bodo prijatelja,
ki ga imajo danes, imeli tudi čez 10 let,
04:16
is the friendprijatelj they'lloni bodo have in 10 yearslet,
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04:18
the vacationpočitnice they mostnajbolj enjoyuživajte now is the one
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na počitnicah, v katerih danes najbolj
uživajo, bodo uživali tudi čez 10 let,
04:20
they'lloni bodo enjoyuživajte in 10 yearslet,
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04:21
and yetše, people who are 10 yearslet olderstarejši all say,
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in ljudje, ki so danes
10 let starejši vsi pravijo:
04:24
"EhEh, you know, that's really changedspremenjeno."
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"Eh, to je danes vse drugače."
04:27
Does any of this matterzadevo?
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Ali je to sploh važno?
04:28
Is this just a formobrazec of mis-predictionmis-napoved
that doesn't have consequencesposledice?
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Je to samo oblika napačnega
predvidevanja brez posledic?
04:31
No, it matterszadeve quitečisto a bitbit, and
I'll give you an exampleprimer of why.
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Ne, je kar pomembno,
in dal vam bom primer, zakaj.
04:34
It bedevilsbedevils our decision-makingodločanje in importantpomembno waysnačinov.
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To pomembno zaznamuje naše odločanje.
04:38
BringPrinašajo to mindum right now for yourselfsami
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Spomnite se svojega
trenutno najljubšega glasbenika
04:39
your favoritenajljubši musicianglasbenik todaydanes
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04:42
and your favoritenajljubši musicianglasbenik 10 yearslet agonazaj.
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in tistega izpred desetih let.
04:44
I put minemoj up on the screenzaslon to help you alongskupaj.
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Moj je na zaslonu, za pomoč.
04:46
Now we askedvprašal people
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Vprašali smo ljudi,
naj za nas predvidijo,
04:48
to predictnapovedati for us, to tell us
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04:50
how much moneydenar they would payplačati right now
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koliko denarja bi plačali ta trenutek
04:53
to see theirnjihovi currenttok favoritenajljubši musicianglasbenik
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za ogled njihovega glasbenika,
04:55
performopraviti in concertkoncert 10 yearslet from now,
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ko bo nastopal čez deset let,
04:58
and on averagepovprečje, people said they would payplačati
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in v povprečju so odgovorili,
da bi plačali okrog 95 EUR za vstopnico.
05:00
129 dollarsdolarjev for that ticketvozovnico.
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05:03
And yetše, when we askedvprašal them
how much they would payplačati
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Ko pa smo jih vprašali, koliko bi plačali,
05:06
to see the personoseba who was theirnjihovi favoritenajljubši
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da bi videli nastop osebe, ki jim je bila
najljubša pred desetimi leti, danes,
05:08
10 yearslet agonazaj performopraviti todaydanes,
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05:10
they say only 80 dollarsdolarjev.
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so rekli le okrog 59 EUR.
05:12
Now, in a perfectlypopolnoma rationalracionalno worldsvet,
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V povsem razumskem svetu
bi to morala biti enaka številka,
05:14
these should be the sameenako numberštevilka,
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05:16
but we overpayPlačate for the opportunitypriložnost
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toda preplačamo za tisto priložnost,
05:18
to indulgePrepustite our currenttok preferencesnastavitve
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da uživamo v naših trenutnih preferencah,
05:20
because we overestimateprecenjujejo theirnjihovi stabilitystabilnost.
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saj precenjujemo njihovo stabilnost.
05:24
Why does this happense zgodi? We're not entirelypopolnoma sure,
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Zakaj se to zgodi?
Nismo povsem prepričani,
05:26
but it probablyverjetno has to do
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ampak verjetno je povezano
05:28
with the easeenostavno of rememberingspominjanje
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z lahkoto spominjanja
05:30
versusproti the difficultytežave of imaginingsi predstavlja.
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v primerjavi s težavnostjo zamišljanja.
05:32
MostVečina of us can rememberZapomni si
who we were 10 yearslet agonazaj,
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Večina se spomni,
kdo smo bili pred desetimi leti,
05:35
but we find it hardtežko to imaginezamislite who we're going to be,
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ampak težko si nam je
zamisliti si, kdo bomo postali
05:38
and then we mistakenlyzmotno think
that because it's hardtežko to imaginezamislite,
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in zmotno mislimo, da je zato,
ker si je težko zamišljati,
05:41
it's not likelyverjetno to happense zgodi.
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tudi manj verjetno, da se bo zgodilo.
05:43
Sorry, when people say "I can't imaginezamislite that,"
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Oprostite, ko ljudje rečejo:
"Tega si ne predstavljam,"
05:46
they're usuallyobičajno talkinggovoriti about
theirnjihovi ownlastno lackpomanjkanje of imaginationdomišljijo,
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navadno govorijo o
pomanjkanju lastne domišljije
05:49
and not about the unlikelihoodneverjetnost
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in ne o verjetnosti dogodka,
ki ga opisujejo.
05:50
of the eventdogodek that they're describingopisuje.
142
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2990
05:53
The bottomspodaj lineline is, time is a powerfulmočno forcesila.
143
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3567
Pod črto, čas je močna sila.
05:57
It transformspreoblikuje our preferencesnastavitve.
144
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1643
Spremeni naše preference.
05:59
It reshapespreoblikuje our valuesvrednosti.
145
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2118
Preoblikuje naše vrednote.
Spremeni naše osebnosti.
06:01
It altersspremeni our personalitiesosebnosti.
146
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1343
06:02
We seemzdi se to appreciatecenite this factdejstvo,
147
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2567
Zdi se, da to dejstvo cenimo,
06:05
but only in retrospectpogled nazaj v preteklost.
148
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1561
ampak samo ob pogledu nazaj.
06:06
Only when we look backwardsnazaj do we realizeuresničiti
149
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2495
Šele ko se ozremo nazaj, spoznamo, koliko
sprememb se lahko zgodi v desetletju.
06:09
how much changesprememba happensse zgodi in a decadedesetletje.
150
357246
3272
06:12
It's as if, for mostnajbolj of us,
151
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1679
Kot da bi bila za večino od nas
sedanjost nek čaroben čas.
06:14
the presentprisotni is a magicmagija time.
152
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2169
06:16
It's a watershedvodotok on the timelineČasovna premica.
153
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2017
Je mejnik na časovni premici.
06:18
It's the momenttrenutek at whichki we finallykončno
154
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2344
Je trenutek,
v katerem končno postanemo mi sami.
06:20
becomepostane ourselvessami.
155
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2503
06:23
HumanLjudi beingsbitja are worksdela in progressnapredek
156
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2693
Ljudje so dela v teku,
06:25
that mistakenlyzmotno think they're finishedkončal.
157
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2923
ki si zmotno mislijo, da so končana.
06:28
The personoseba you are right now
158
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1790
Oseba, ki ste v tem trenutku,
06:30
is as transientprehodno, as fleetingbežen and as temporaryzačasno
159
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3702
je prehodna,
tako minljiva in začasna
06:34
as all the people you've ever been.
160
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2659
kot vsi ljudje, ki ste nekoč bili.
06:36
The one constantkonstantno in our life is changesprememba.
161
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Edina stalnica v našem življenju
je sprememba.
06:40
Thank you.
162
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Hvala.
06:42
(ApplauseAplavz)
163
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(Aplavz)
Translated by Andreja Benčina
Reviewed by Nika Kotnik

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com