ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com
TED2014

Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self

Dan Gilbert: Psihologija vašeg budućeg ja

Filmed:
5,798,493 views

"Ljudska bića su radovi u tijeku koji pogrešno misle da su dovršeni." Dan Gilbert dijeli nedavno istraživanje o fenomenu kojeg naziva "kraj povijesne iluzije," gdje mi nekako zamišljamo da osoba koja smo sada je osoba koja ćemo biti ostatak vremena. Nagovještaj: to nije slučaj.
- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
At everysvaki stagefaza of our livesživot
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U svakoj fazi naših života
00:14
we make decisionsodluke that will profoundlyduboko influenceutjecaj
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donosimo odluke koje će duboko utjecati
00:18
the livesživot of the people we're going to becomepostati,
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živote ljudi koji ćemo postati,
00:20
and then when we becomepostati those people,
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i kada postanemo ti ljudi,
00:21
we're not always thrilledoduševljen with the decisionsodluke we madenapravljen.
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nećemo uvijek biti oduševljeni odlukama koje smo donijeli.
00:24
So youngmladi people payplatiti good moneynovac
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Tako mladi ljudi prilično skupo plaćaju
00:26
to get tattoostetovaže removedukloniti that teenagerstinejdžeri
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da bi odstranili tetovaže koje su kao tinejdžeri
00:29
paidplaćen good moneynovac to get.
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također skupo platili.
00:30
Middle-agedSrednjih godina people rushedpožurili to divorcerazvod people
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Ljudi u srednjim godinama se žure rastaviti od ljudi
00:33
who youngmladi adultsodrasli rushedpožurili to marryoženiti.
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koje su kao mlade odrasle osobe žurili oženiti.
00:35
OlderStarije adultsodrasli work hardteško to loseizgubiti
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Stariji odrasli naporno rade da bi izgubili
00:38
what middle-agedsrednje godine adultsodrasli workedradio hardteško to gaindobit.
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ono za što u srednjim godinama naporno rade da bi dobili.
00:41
On and on and on.
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I tako dalje i dalje i dalje.
00:42
The questionpitanje is, as a psychologistpsiholog,
that fascinatesfascinira me is,
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Pitanje koje me, kao psihologa, fascinira je
00:45
why do we make decisionsodluke
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zašto donosimo odluke
00:47
that our futurebudućnost selvessebe so oftenčesto regretžaljenje?
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koje "budući mi" tako često požalimo?
00:50
Now, I think one of the reasonsrazlozi --
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Sada, ja mislim da je jedan od razloga --
00:52
I'll try to convinceuvjeriti you todaydanas
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u koji ću vas danas pokušati uvjeriti --
00:54
is that we have a fundamentalosnovni misconceptionpogrešno shvaćanje
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taj što imamo temeljnu pogrešnu predodžbu
00:56
about the powervlast of time.
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o moćnom utjecaju vremena.
00:59
EverySvaki one of you knowszna that the ratestopa of changepromijeniti
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Svatko od vas zna da se brzina promjene
01:01
slowsusporava over the humanljudski lifespanživotni vijek,
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usporava tijekom ljudskog životnog vijeka,
01:03
that your childrendjeca seemčiniti se to changepromijeniti by the minuteminuta
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tako da izgleda kao da se vaša djeca mijenjaju kroz minute
01:06
but your parentsroditelji seemčiniti se to changepromijeniti by the yeargodina.
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ali se vaši roditelji mijenjaju kroz godine.
01:09
But what is the nameime of this magicalčaroban pointtočka in life
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Ali kako se zove ta čarobna točka u životu
01:12
where changepromijeniti suddenlyiznenada goeside
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kada promjena naglo krene
01:14
from a gallopgalop to a crawlpuzati?
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iz galopa u puzanje?
01:16
Is it teenagetinejdžerski yearsgodina? Is it middlesrednji agedob?
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Jesu li to adolescencijske godine? Jesu li to srednje godine?
01:19
Is it oldstar agedob? The answerodgovor, it turnsokreti out,
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Je li to starost? Odgovor je, kako se ispostavilo,
01:22
for mostnajviše people, is now,
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za većinu ljudi, sada,
01:24
wherevergdje god now happensdogađa se to be.
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kadgod sada jest.
01:27
What I want to convinceuvjeriti you todaydanas
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Ono što vas danas želim uvjeriti
01:29
is that all of us are walkinghodanje around with an illusioniluzija,
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je da svatko od nas hoda naokolo s iluzijom,
01:32
an illusioniluzija that historypovijest, our personalosobni historypovijest,
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iluzijom da je povijest, naša osobna povijest,
01:35
has just come to an endkraj,
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upravo završila,
01:37
that we have just recentlynedavno becomepostati
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da smo mi nedavno postali
01:39
the people that we were always meantznačilo to be
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ljudi koji smo oduvijek htjeli biti
01:42
and will be for the restodmor of our livesživot.
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i koji ćemo biti ostatak naših života.
01:44
Let me give you some datapodaci to back up that claimzahtjev.
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Dopustite da vam dam nekoliko činjenica kako bih potvrdio tu tvrdnju.
01:46
So here'sevo a studystudija of changepromijeniti in people'snarodno
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Ovo je istraživanje o promjeni u
01:49
personalosobni valuesvrijednosti over time.
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osobnim vrijednostima ljudi kroz vrijeme.
01:51
Here'sOvdje je threetri valuesvrijednosti.
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Evo tri vrijednosti.
01:53
EverybodySvi here holdsdrži all of them,
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Svatko ovdje ima sve tri,
01:54
but you probablyvjerojatno know that as you growrasti,
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ali vjerojatno znate da kako odrastate,
01:56
as you agedob, the balanceravnoteža of these valuesvrijednosti shiftspomaci.
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kako starite, tako se ravnoteža među ovim vrijednostima mijenja.
02:00
So how does it do so?
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Kako?
02:02
Well, we askedpitao thousandstisuća of people.
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Pa, pitali smo tisuće ljudi.
02:04
We askedpitao halfpola of them to predictpredvidjeti for us
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Pitali smo polovicu da nam predvide
02:05
how much theirnjihov valuesvrijednosti would
changepromijeniti in the nextSljedeći 10 yearsgodina,
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koliko će se njihove vrijednosti promijeniti u sljedećih 10 godina,
02:08
and the othersdrugi to tell us
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druge smo pitali da nam kažu
02:10
how much theirnjihov valuesvrijednosti had
changedpromijenjen in the last 10 yearsgodina.
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koliko su se njihove vrijednosti promijenile u zadnjih 10 godina.
02:13
And this enabledomogućeno us to do a really
interestingzanimljiv kindljubazan of analysisanaliza,
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To nam je omogućilo da napravimo zaista zanimljivu analizu,
02:16
because it alloweddopušteno us to compareusporediti the predictionspredviđanja
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jer smo mogli usporediti predviđanja
02:19
of people, say, 18 yearsgodina oldstar,
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ljudi, recimo, od osamnaest godina,
02:21
to the reportsizvještaji of people who were 28,
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s izvješćima onih od 28,
02:23
and to do that kindljubazan of analysisanaliza
throughoutkroz the lifespanživotni vijek.
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te raditi takvu vrstu analize kroz životni vijek.
02:25
Here'sOvdje je what we foundpronađeno.
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Evo što smo ustanovili.
02:27
First of all, you are right,
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Kao prvo, bili ste u pravu,
02:28
changepromijeniti does slowusporiti down as we agedob,
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promjena se zaista usporava kako starimo,
02:31
but seconddrugi, you're wrongpogrešno,
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ali kao drugo, bili ste u krivu,
02:33
because it doesn't slowusporiti nearlyskoro as much as we think.
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jer se ne usporava ni približno onoliko koliko mi mislimo.
02:36
At everysvaki agedob, from 18 to 68 in our datapodaci setset,
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U svakoj dobi, od 18 do 68 godina u našem istraživanju,
02:40
people vastlymnogo underestimatedPodcijenio how much changepromijeniti
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ljudi mahom podcjenjuju koliko promjene
02:44
they would experienceiskustvo over the nextSljedeći 10 yearsgodina.
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će doživjeti kroz sljedećih 10 godina.
02:47
We call this the "endkraj of historypovijest" illusioniluzija.
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To smo prozvali iluzijom "kraja povijesti".
02:50
To give you an ideaideja of the magnitudeveličina of this effectposljedica,
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Da bismo vam približili ideju veličine ovog utjecaja,
02:52
you can connectSpojiti these two lineslinije,
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spojite ove dvije linije,
02:53
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds-godiĹnje starosti
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i ovo što vidite je da osamnaestogodišnjaci
02:56
anticipatepredvidjeti changingmijenjanje only as much
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predviđaju onoliko promjene
02:58
as 50-year-olds-godiĹnje starosti actuallyzapravo do.
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koliko kao pedesetogodišnjaci zapravo dožive.
03:01
Now it's not just valuesvrijednosti. It's all sortsvrste of other things.
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No nisu samo vrijednosti u pitanju. Riječ je i o različitim drugim stvarima.
03:05
For exampleprimjer, personalityosoba.
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Primjerice, osobnost.
03:07
ManyMnogi of you know that psychologistspsiholozi now claimzahtjev
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Mnogi od vas znaju da danas psiholozi tvrde
03:09
that there are fivepet fundamentalosnovni
dimensionsdimenzije of personalityosoba:
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kako postoji pet temeljnih dimenzija osobnosti:
03:13
neuroticismNeuroticizam, opennessotvorenost to experienceiskustvo,
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neuroticizam, otvorenost prema iskustvu,
03:15
agreeablenessagreeableness, extraversionekstraverzije, and conscientiousnesssavjesnost.
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ugodnost, ekstraverzija i savjesnosti.
03:19
Again, we askedpitao people how much they expectedočekuje se
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Ponovno smo pitali ljude koliko očekuju
03:21
to changepromijeniti over the nextSljedeći 10 yearsgodina,
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da će se promijeniti kroz sljedećih 10 godina,
03:23
and alsotakođer how much they had
changedpromijenjen over the last 10 yearsgodina,
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te koliko su se promijenili kroz proteklih 10 godina,
03:26
and what we foundpronađeno,
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i otkrili smo,
03:27
well, you're going to get used to
seeingvidim this diagramdijagram over and over,
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naviknuti ćete se gledati ovaj dijagram uvijek iznova,
03:30
because oncejednom again the ratestopa of changepromijeniti
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jer se ponovno stopa promjene
03:32
does slowusporiti as we agedob,
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zaista usporava kako starimo,
03:33
but at everysvaki agedob, people underestimatepodcjenjivati
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ali za svaku dob, ljudi podcjenjuju
03:37
how much theirnjihov personalitiesosobnosti will changepromijeniti
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koliko će se njihova osobnost pomijeniti
03:39
in the nextSljedeći decadedesetljeće.
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u sljedećem desetljeću.
03:41
And it isn't just ephemeralprolazan things
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I nije samo riječ o prolaznim stvarima
03:44
like valuesvrijednosti and personalityosoba.
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kao što su vrijednosti i osobnost.
03:45
You can askpitati people about theirnjihov likessviđa and dislikesNe voli,
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Možete pitati ljude o onome što im se sviđa ili ne sviđa,
03:48
theirnjihov basicosnovni preferencesosobne postavke.
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njihove osnovne prioritete.
03:50
For exampleprimjer, nameime your bestnajbolje friendprijatelj,
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Primjerice, kako ti se zove najbolji prijatelj,
03:53
your favoriteljubimac kindljubazan of vacationodmor,
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najdraža vrsta godišnjeg odmora,
03:54
what's your favoriteljubimac hobbyhobi,
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najdraži hobi,
03:56
what's your favoriteljubimac kindljubazan of musicglazba.
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najdraža vrsta glazbe.
03:58
People can nameime these things.
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Ljudi mogu imenovati ove stvari.
03:59
We askpitati halfpola of them to tell us,
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Onda smo pitali polovicu da nam kaže,
04:01
"Do you think that that will
changepromijeniti over the nextSljedeći 10 yearsgodina?"
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"Misliš li da će se to promijeniti kroz sljedećih 10 godina?"
04:05
and halfpola of them to tell us,
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a polovicu da nam kaže,
04:06
"Did that changepromijeniti over the last 10 yearsgodina?"
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"Je li se to promijenilo kroz prošlih 10 godina?"
04:09
And what we find, well, you've seenvidio it twicedvaput now,
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I otkrili smo, kao što ste već vidjeli dvaput do sada,
04:11
and here it is again:
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i evo ga ponovno:
04:13
people predictpredvidjeti that the friendprijatelj they have now
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ljudi predviđaju da će im prijatelj kojeg imaju sada
04:16
is the friendprijatelj they'lloni će have in 10 yearsgodina,
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biti i prijatelj kojeg će imati za 10 godina,
04:18
the vacationodmor they mostnajviše enjoyuživati now is the one
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vrsta godišnjeg odmora koja im se sviđa sada je ista
04:20
they'lloni će enjoyuživati in 10 yearsgodina,
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kao i ona koja će im se sviđati za 10 godina,
04:21
and yetjoš, people who are 10 yearsgodina olderstariji all say,
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no, s druge strane, ljudi koji su 10 godina stariji kažu,
04:24
"EhHa, you know, that's really changedpromijenjen."
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"Eh, znaš, to se zaista promijenilo."
04:27
Does any of this matterstvar?
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Je li što od ovoga bitno?
04:28
Is this just a formoblik of mis-predictionpogrešno predviđanje
that doesn't have consequencesposljedice?
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Ovo je samo oblik krive predodžbe koja nema nikakvih posljedica?
04:31
No, it matterspitanja quitedosta a bitbit, and
I'll give you an exampleprimjer of why.
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Ne, jako je bitno, i dat ću vam primjer zašto.
04:34
It bedevilsbedevils our decision-makingodlučivanje in importantvažno waysnačine.
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To uvelike otežava naše donošenje odluka.
04:38
BringDonijeti to mindum right now for yourselfsami
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Prisjetite se sada za sebe
04:39
your favoriteljubimac musicianglazbenik todaydanas
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svog najdražeg glazbenika danas
04:42
and your favoriteljubimac musicianglazbenik 10 yearsgodina agoprije.
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i svog najdražeg glazbenika prije 10 godina.
04:44
I put minerudnik up on the screenzaslon to help you alonguz.
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Mogu vam pokazati svoje na ekranu kako bih vam pomogao.
04:46
Now we askedpitao people
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Pitali smo ljude
04:48
to predictpredvidjeti for us, to tell us
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da nam predvide, da nam kažu
04:50
how much moneynovac they would payplatiti right now
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koliko bi novca sada platili
04:53
to see theirnjihov currentstruja favoriteljubimac musicianglazbenik
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da vidite trenutnog najdražeg pjevača
04:55
performizvesti in concertkoncert 10 yearsgodina from now,
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kako nastupa na koncertu za 10 godina,
04:58
and on averageprosječan, people said they would payplatiti
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i u prosjeku su ljudi govorili kako bi platili
05:00
129 dollarsdolara for that ticketulaznica.
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129 dolara za tu kartu.
05:03
And yetjoš, when we askedpitao them
how much they would payplatiti
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S druge strane, kada smo ih pitali koliko bi platili
05:06
to see the personosoba who was theirnjihov favoriteljubimac
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da vide pjevača koji im je bio najdraži
05:08
10 yearsgodina agoprije performizvesti todaydanas,
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prije deset godina kako nastupa danas,
05:10
they say only 80 dollarsdolara.
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rekli su samo 80 dolara.
05:12
Now, in a perfectlysavršeno rationalracionalan worldsvijet,
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Sada, u savršeno racionalnom svijetu,
05:14
these should be the sameisti numberbroj,
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ovo bi trebala biti ista brojka,
05:16
but we overpaypreplatiti for the opportunityprilika
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ali mi pretplatimo za priliku
05:18
to indulgeupuštati our currentstruja preferencesosobne postavke
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da udovoljimo trenutnim sviđanjima
05:20
because we overestimateprecijeniti theirnjihov stabilitystabilnost.
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jer precijenimo njihovu stabilnost.
05:24
Why does this happendogoditi se? We're not entirelypotpuno sure,
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Zašto se to događa? Nismo u potpunosti sigurni,
05:26
but it probablyvjerojatno has to do
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ali vjerojatno ima veze s
05:28
with the easeolakšati of rememberingsjećanja
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lakoćom pamćenja
05:30
versusprotiv the difficultyteškoća of imaginingzamišljanje.
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nasuprot težini zamišljanja.
05:32
MostVećina of us can rememberzapamtiti
who we were 10 yearsgodina agoprije,
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Većina nas se sjeća tko su bili prije 10 godina
05:35
but we find it hardteško to imaginezamisliti who we're going to be,
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ali nam je teško zamisliti tko ćemo biti,
05:38
and then we mistakenlyzabunom think
that because it's hardteško to imaginezamisliti,
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stoga pogrešno mislimo da zbog toga što je teško zamisliti,
05:41
it's not likelyVjerojatno to happendogoditi se.
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nije vjerojatno da će se dogoditi.
05:43
Sorry, when people say "I can't imaginezamisliti that,"
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Oprostite, kada ljudi kažu "Ne mogu to zamisliti",
05:46
they're usuallyobično talkingkoji govori about
theirnjihov ownvlastiti lacknedostatak of imaginationmašta,
140
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2948
obično govore o svom vlastitom nedostatku mašte,
05:49
and not about the unlikelihoodIma
141
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a ne o nevjerojatnosti
05:50
of the eventdogađaj that they're describingopisujući.
142
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događaja o kojem govore.
05:53
The bottomdno linecrta is, time is a powerfulsnažan forcesila.
143
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Zaključak je da je vrijeme moćna sila.
05:57
It transformstransformira our preferencesosobne postavke.
144
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Transformira naše preference.
05:59
It reshapespreoblikuje our valuesvrijednosti.
145
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2118
Mijenja naše vrijednosti.
06:01
It altersmijenja our personalitiesosobnosti.
146
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Mijenja naše osobnosti.
06:02
We seemčiniti se to appreciatecijeniti this factčinjenica,
147
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2567
Izgleda da poštujemo ovu činjenicu,
06:05
but only in retrospectretrospektivi.
148
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ali samo u retrospektivi.
06:06
Only when we look backwardsunazad do we realizeostvariti
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Jer tek kad gledamo unatrag, shvatimo
06:09
how much changepromijeniti happensdogađa se in a decadedesetljeće.
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koliko promjene se dogodi u jednom desetljeću.
06:12
It's as if, for mostnajviše of us,
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Kao da je, za većinu nas,
06:14
the presentpredstaviti is a magicmagija time.
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sadašnjost čarobno vrijeme.
06:16
It's a watershedrazvođe on the timelineKronologija.
153
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2017
To je prekretnica u vremenskoj liniji,
06:18
It's the momenttrenutak at whichkoji we finallykonačno
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trenutak u kojem konačno
06:20
becomepostati ourselvessebe.
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postajemo mi sami.
06:23
HumanLjudski beingsbića are worksdjela in progressnapredak
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Ljudska bića su rad u tijeku
06:25
that mistakenlyzabunom think they're finishedgotov.
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koji pogrešno misle da su dovršeni.
06:28
The personosoba you are right now
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Osoba koja si sada
06:30
is as transientprolazan, as fleetingkratkotrajna and as temporaryprivremen
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je jednako prolazna, koliko prolazna toliko i privremena
06:34
as all the people you've ever been.
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kao svi ljudi koji si ikada bio.
06:36
The one constantkonstantno in our life is changepromijeniti.
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Jedina konstanta u našem životu je promjena.
06:40
Thank you.
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Hvala
06:42
(ApplausePljesak)
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(Pljesak)
Translated by Ines Sedlar
Reviewed by Ivan Stamenkovic

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com

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