ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com
TED2014

Dan Gilbert: The psychology of your future self

丹.吉伯特: 未來自我的心理學

Filmed:
5,798,493 views

「人類不斷變化,卻誤以為自己已經不會再改變。」丹.吉伯特分享了他近期的研究,一個他稱之為「歷史終結錯覺」的現象──我們不知道為什麼會認為現在的自己以後都將不再改變。提示:事實並非如我們所想。
- Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

00:12
At every一切 stage階段 of our lives生活
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我們人生的每一階段
00:14
we make decisions決定 that will profoundly深深 influence影響
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所做的決定都將深深影響
00:18
the lives生活 of the people we're going to become成為,
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我們未來的樣貌。
00:20
and then when we become成為 those people,
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但當我們成為那樣的人時,
00:21
we're not always thrilled高興 with the decisions決定 we made製作.
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卻不總是對自己
過去的決定感到開心。
00:24
So young年輕 people pay工資 good money
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所以年輕人花大錢
00:26
to get tattoos紋身 removed去除 that teenagers青少年
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除去年少時花大錢刺的青;
00:29
paid支付 good money to get.
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00:30
Middle-aged中年 people rushed to divorce離婚 people
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中年人急著與年輕時
急著結婚的對象離婚;
00:33
who young年輕 adults成年人 rushed to marry結婚.
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00:35
Older年長 adults成年人 work hard to lose失去
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年紀大時又想減去中年時
花大功夫囤積起的脂肪。
00:38
what middle-aged中年 adults成年人 worked工作 hard to gain獲得.
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00:41
On and on and on.
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如此周而復始。
00:42
The question is, as a psychologist心理學家,
that fascinates著迷 me is,
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身為一位心理學家,
我著迷的問題是:
00:45
why do we make decisions決定
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為什麼我們做的決定
00:47
that our future未來 selves自我 so often經常 regret後悔?
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往往以後都會後悔?
00:50
Now, I think one of the reasons原因 --
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我想其中一個原因
00:52
I'll try to convince說服 you today今天
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──我會試著說服大家──
00:54
is that we have a fundamental基本的 misconception誤解
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就是我們對於時間的力量
有著徹底的誤解。
00:56
about the power功率 of time.
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00:59
Every一切 one of you knows知道 that the rate of change更改
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各位都知道改變的速度
01:01
slows減緩 over the human人的 lifespan壽命,
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會隨著年紀增長變慢。
01:03
that your children孩子 seem似乎 to change更改 by the minute分鐘
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小孩子以分鐘為單位變化,
01:06
but your parents父母 seem似乎 to change更改 by the year.
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但大人卻以年為單位變化。
01:09
But what is the name名稱 of this magical神奇 point in life
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但人生那神奇的一刻叫什麼?
01:12
where change更改 suddenly突然 goes
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改變的速度突然
01:14
from a gallop馳騁 to a crawl爬行?
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從飛速變龜速的那一刻?
01:16
Is it teenage青少年 years年份? Is it middle中間 age年齡?
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是在青少年時期嗎?
中年?老年?
01:19
Is it old age年齡? The answer回答, it turns out,
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對很多人來說,
答案就是「現在」。
01:22
for most people, is now,
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01:24
wherever哪裡 now happens發生 to be.
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不管「現在」是生命中哪一階段。
01:27
What I want to convince說服 you today今天
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我今天想說服各位的是,
01:29
is that all of us are walking步行 around with an illusion錯覺,
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所有人都身在一種錯覺中。
01:32
an illusion錯覺 that history歷史, our personal個人 history歷史,
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認為我們的個人歷史
01:35
has just come to an end結束,
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都到了終點;
01:37
that we have just recently最近 become成為
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認為我們就在剛剛那瞬間成為了
01:39
the people that we were always meant意味著 to be
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命中註定的樣子,
01:42
and will be for the rest休息 of our lives生活.
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且一輩子將會就是這樣不變了。
01:44
Let me give you some data數據 to back up that claim要求.
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我用數據來支持我的論點。
01:46
So here's這裡的 a study研究 of change更改 in people's人們
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這項研究是關於人們
01:49
personal個人 values over time.
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價值觀隨著時間的改變。
01:51
Here's這裡的 three values.
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這三種價值觀人人都有。
01:53
Everybody每個人 here holds持有 all of them,
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01:54
but you probably大概 know that as you grow增長,
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但你大概知道,
01:56
as you age年齡, the balance平衡 of these values shifts轉變.
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隨著年齡增長,
這些價值觀的比重會變。
02:00
So how does it do so?
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怎麼變化呢?
02:02
Well, we asked thousands數千 of people.
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我們問了上千人。
02:04
We asked half of them to predict預測 for us
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請一半的人預測
02:05
how much their values would
change更改 in the next下一個 10 years年份,
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接下來十年,他們的
價值觀會有多少改變,
02:08
and the others其他 to tell us
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請另一半的人說
02:10
how much their values had
changed in the last 10 years年份.
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過去十年,他們的
價值觀改變多少。
02:13
And this enabled啟用 us to do a really
interesting有趣 kind of analysis分析,
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這讓我們能做出很有意思的分析,
02:16
because it allowed允許 us to compare比較 the predictions預測
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因為這可以比較
02:19
of people, say, 18 years年份 old,
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一個 18 歲的人所做的預測
02:21
to the reports報告 of people who were 28,
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以及 28 歲的人對過去的觀察,
02:23
and to do that kind of analysis分析
throughout始終 the lifespan壽命.
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並對各年齡層都如此分析。
02:25
Here's這裡的 what we found發現.
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我們的發現如下:
02:27
First of all, you are right,
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首先,各位是對的,
02:28
change更改 does slow down as we age年齡,
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改變速度的確隨年齡增長變慢,
02:31
but second第二, you're wrong錯誤,
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但接下來各位錯了,
02:33
because it doesn't slow nearly幾乎 as much as we think.
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改變速度遠比我們想像中快。
02:36
At every一切 age年齡, from 18 to 68 in our data數據 set,
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我們數據中的每一個年齡,
從 18 到 68 歲,
02:40
people vastly大大 underestimated低估 how much change更改
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大家都大大低估了
接下來十年會經歷的改變有多少。
02:44
they would experience經驗 over the next下一個 10 years年份.
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02:47
We call this the "end結束 of history歷史" illusion錯覺.
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我們稱之為「歷史終結錯覺」。
02:50
To give you an idea理念 of the magnitude大小 of this effect影響,
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讓我說明這會影響的範圍。
02:52
you can connect these two lines,
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兩條線連起來,
02:53
and what you see here is that 18-year-olds- 年的孩子
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你看到的是 18 歲的人
02:56
anticipate預料 changing改變 only as much
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對改變的預期
跟 50 歲的人真正經歷的改變一樣。
02:58
as 50-year-olds- 年的孩子 actually其實 do.
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03:01
Now it's not just values. It's all sorts排序 of other things.
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不只有價值觀,
還有許多事也一樣。
03:05
For example, personality個性.
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舉例來說,個性。
03:07
Many許多 of you know that psychologists心理學家 now claim要求
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很多人都知道心理學家現在聲稱
03:09
that there are five fundamental基本的
dimensions尺寸 of personality個性:
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有五大性格特質:
03:13
neuroticism神經質, openness透明度 to experience經驗,
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情緒不穩定性、經驗開放性、
03:15
agreeableness宜人, extraversion外向性, and conscientiousness自覺性.
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友善性、外向性、嚴謹性。
03:19
Again, we asked people how much they expected預期
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再次地,我們請人預期
03:21
to change更改 over the next下一個 10 years年份,
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接下來十年會有多少改變,
03:23
and also how much they had
changed over the last 10 years年份,
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以及過去十年經歷多少改變,
03:26
and what we found發現,
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我們發現,
03:27
well, you're going to get used to
seeing眼看 this diagram over and over,
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這個表會一直出現,
03:30
because once一旦 again the rate of change更改
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因為再次地,改變的速度
03:32
does slow as we age年齡,
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的確隨年齡增長而變慢,
03:33
but at every一切 age年齡, people underestimate低估
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但在每一個年紀,人們都低估了
03:37
how much their personalities個性 will change更改
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接下來的十年
03:39
in the next下一個 decade.
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他們的個性會有多少改變。
03:41
And it isn't just ephemeral短暫的 things
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不只是短暫的東西,
03:44
like values and personality個性.
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像價值觀、個性等,
03:45
You can ask people about their likes喜歡 and dislikes不喜歡,
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還可以問問人們的好惡,
03:48
their basic基本 preferences優先.
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基本的喜好。
03:50
For example, name名稱 your best最好 friend朋友,
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舉例來說,講出摯友的名字、
03:53
your favorite喜愛 kind of vacation假期,
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最喜歡的假期是怎樣、
03:54
what's your favorite喜愛 hobby愛好,
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最喜歡的嗜好、
03:56
what's your favorite喜愛 kind of music音樂.
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最愛的音樂類型等。
03:58
People can name名稱 these things.
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這些東西人人都說得出。
03:59
We ask half of them to tell us,
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我們問一半的人:
04:01
"Do you think that that will
change更改 over the next下一個 10 years年份?"
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「你覺得這些東西
十年後會改變嗎?」
04:05
and half of them to tell us,
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並問另一半的人:
04:06
"Did that change更改 over the last 10 years年份?"
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「這些問題的答案
跟十年前一樣嗎?」
04:09
And what we find, well, you've seen看到 it twice兩次 now,
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同樣的圖出現兩次了,我們發現,
04:11
and here it is again:
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再來看一次:
04:13
people predict預測 that the friend朋友 they have now
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人們預測他們現在的朋友,
04:16
is the friend朋友 they'll他們會 have in 10 years年份,
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十年後一樣會是好朋友、
04:18
the vacation假期 they most enjoy請享用 now is the one
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他們現在最愛的假期,
04:20
they'll他們會 enjoy請享用 in 10 years年份,
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十年後依然會喜歡。
04:21
and yet然而, people who are 10 years年份 older舊的 all say,
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而那些年紀大上十歲的人說
04:24
"Eh, you know, that's really changed."
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「唉,都跟以前不一樣。」
04:27
Does any of this matter?
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那這很重要嗎?
04:28
Is this just a form形成 of mis-prediction誤預測
that doesn't have consequences後果?
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這只是某種形式的錯估,
且不會有任何影響?
04:31
No, it matters事項 quite相當 a bit, and
I'll give you an example of why.
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不,這其實影響很大,
我來舉例說明。
04:34
It bedevilsbedevils our decision-making做決定 in important重要 ways方法.
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這讓我們做決定時變得很困難。
04:38
Bring帶來 to mind心神 right now for yourself你自己
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現在想想你現在
04:39
your favorite喜愛 musician音樂家 today今天
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最喜歡的音樂人
04:42
and your favorite喜愛 musician音樂家 10 years年份 ago.
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以及十年前最愛的音樂人。
04:44
I put mine up on the screen屏幕 to help you along沿.
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我將自己的答案放上來
幫助各位思考。
04:46
Now we asked people
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現在,我們請人預估
04:48
to predict預測 for us, to tell us
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並告訴我們,
04:50
how much money they would pay工資 right now
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他們現在願意付多少錢
04:53
to see their current當前 favorite喜愛 musician音樂家
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去看他們目前最愛的音樂人
04:55
perform演出 in concert音樂會 10 years年份 from now,
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十年後的演唱會。
04:58
and on average平均, people said they would pay工資
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平均來說,答案是
05:00
129 dollars美元 for that ticket.
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一張票願意花 129 美金。
05:03
And yet然而, when we asked them
how much they would pay工資
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然而,當問到他們願意付多少錢
05:06
to see the person who was their favorite喜愛
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去看他們十年前喜歡的音樂人
05:08
10 years年份 ago perform演出 today今天,
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現在的演唱會,
05:10
they say only 80 dollars美元.
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他們的答案只有 80 美金。
05:12
Now, in a perfectly完美 rational合理的 world世界,
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在一個完全理性的世界,
05:14
these should be the same相同 number,
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這兩個答案應該要是相同的,
05:16
but we overpay多付 for the opportunity機會
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但我們多付了錢
05:18
to indulge放縱 our current當前 preferences優先
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去享受我們目前的喜好,
05:20
because we overestimate估計過高 their stability穩定性.
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因為我們高估了自己的穩定性。
05:24
Why does this happen發生? We're not entirely完全 sure,
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為什麼會這樣?
我們也無法完全確定,
05:26
but it probably大概 has to do
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但這大概是因為
05:28
with the ease緩解 of remembering記憶
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回憶很容易
05:30
versus the difficulty困難 of imagining想像.
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而想像很困難。
05:32
Most of us can remember記得
who we were 10 years年份 ago,
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大多數人記得十年前自己的樣子,
05:35
but we find it hard to imagine想像 who we're going to be,
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但卻很難想像未來的樣子,
05:38
and then we mistakenly think
that because it's hard to imagine想像,
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然後便錯誤地認為:
因為很難想像,
05:41
it's not likely容易 to happen發生.
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所以不太可能發生。
05:43
Sorry, when people say "I can't imagine想像 that,"
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抱歉,當有人說
「我無法想像那會是怎樣」時,
05:46
they're usually平時 talking about
their own擁有 lack缺乏 of imagination想像力,
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通常都是在說自己缺乏想像力,
05:49
and not about the unlikelihood
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而不是他們所形容的事件
05:50
of the event事件 that they're describing說明.
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真的有多不可能發生。
05:53
The bottom底部 line is, time is a powerful強大 force.
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重點是,時間是很強大的力量。
05:57
It transforms變換 our preferences優先.
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它轉變我們的好惡、
05:59
It reshapes重塑 our values.
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重塑我們的價值、
改變我們的個性。
06:01
It alters變造 our personalities個性.
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06:02
We seem似乎 to appreciate欣賞 this fact事實,
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我們似乎認同這個事實,
06:05
but only in retrospect回想起來.
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但僅在回顧的時候如此。
06:06
Only when we look backwards向後 do we realize實現
149
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只有當我們回顧時才會發現
06:09
how much change更改 happens發生 in a decade.
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3272
十年之間有多少改變,
06:12
It's as if, for most of us,
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就好像對我們大多數人來說
06:14
the present當下 is a magic魔法 time.
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當下是個很神奇的時間。
06:16
It's a watershed分水嶺 on the timeline時間線.
153
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2017
這是時間線的分水嶺。
06:18
It's the moment時刻 at which哪一個 we finally最後
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就在這一刻,
06:20
become成為 ourselves我們自己.
155
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我們終於成為自己。
06:23
Human人的 beings眾生 are works作品 in progress進展
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人類不斷變化,
06:25
that mistakenly think they're finished.
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卻誤以為自己已經不會再改變。
06:28
The person you are right now
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你現在的樣子
06:30
is as transient短暫的, as fleeting流年 and as temporary臨時
159
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3702
是短暫、轉瞬即逝的,
06:34
as all the people you've ever been.
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就如你過去的自己一樣。
06:36
The one constant不變 in our life is change更改.
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人生唯一不變的,就是不斷改變。
06:40
Thank you.
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謝謝。
06:42
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Adrienne Lin
Reviewed by Kuan-Yi Li

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Gilbert - Psychologist; happiness expert
Harvard psychologist Dan Gilbert says our beliefs about what will make us happy are often wrong -- a premise he supports with intriguing research, and explains in his accessible and unexpectedly funny book, Stumbling on Happiness.

Why you should listen

Dan Gilbert believes that, in our ardent, lifelong pursuit of happiness, most of us have the wrong map. In the same way that optical illusions fool our eyes -- and fool everyone's eyes in the same way -- Gilbert argues that our brains systematically misjudge what will make us happy. And these quirks in our cognition make humans very poor predictors of our own bliss.

The premise of his current research -- that our assumptions about what will make us happy are often wrong -- is supported with clinical research drawn from psychology and neuroscience. But his delivery is what sets him apart. His engaging -- and often hilarious -- style pokes fun at typical human behavior and invokes pop-culture references everyone can relate to. This winning style translates also to Gilbert's writing, which is lucid, approachable and laugh-out-loud funny. The immensely readable Stumbling on Happiness, published in 2006, became a New York Times bestseller and has been translated into 20 languages.

In fact, the title of his book could be drawn from his own life. At 19, he was a high school dropout with dreams of writing science fiction. When a creative writing class at his community college was full, he enrolled in the only available course: psychology. He found his passion there, earned a doctorate in social psychology in 1985 at Princeton, and has since won a Guggenheim Fellowship and the Phi Beta Kappa teaching prize for his work at Harvard. He has written essays and articles for The New York Times, Time and even Starbucks, while continuing his research into happiness at his Hedonic Psychology Laboratory.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Gilbert | Speaker | TED.com

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