TEDGlobal 2005
David Deutsch: Chemical scum that dream of distant quasars
Dejvid Dojč o našem mestu u kosmosu
Filmed:
Readability: 4.6
2,534,562 views
Legendarni naučnik Dejvid Dojč (David Deutsch) stavlja teorijsku fiziku u drugi plan kako bi raspravljao o mnogo važnijoj temi: opstanku naše vrste. Prvi korak ka rešavanju problema globalnog zagrevanja, kaže on, jeste priznanje da problem postoji.
David Deutsch - Quantum physicist
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity. Full bio
David Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:24
We've been told to go out on a limb and say something surprising.
0
0
6000
Rečeno nam je iskoračimo i kažemo nešto iznenađujuće.
00:30
So I'll try and do that, but
1
6000
1000
Tako da ću ja to i pokušati. Ali
00:31
I want to start with two things that everyone already knows.
2
7000
7000
želeo bih da počnem sa dve stvari koje svi već znaju.
00:38
And the first one, in fact, is something that
3
14000
2000
Prva je, zapravo, nešto što
00:40
has been known for most of recorded history.
4
16000
4000
je poznato kroz većinu zabeležene istorije.
00:44
And that is that the planet Earth, or the solar system,
5
20000
5000
A to je da je planeta Zemlja, ili solarni sistem,
00:49
or our environment or whatever,
6
25000
2000
ili naša životna sredina ili šta god,
00:51
is uniquely suited to sustain our evolution -- or creation, as it used to be thought --
7
27000
10000
jedinstveno osposobljena da podrži našu evoluciju -- ili kreaciju, kao što se ranije mislilo --
01:01
and our present existence, and most important, our future survival.
8
37000
7000
i naše trenutno postojanje, i što je još važnije, naš budući opstanak.
01:08
Nowadays this idea has a dramatic name: Spaceship Earth.
9
44000
5000
Danas ova ideja ima dramatičan naziv: Svemirski brod Zemlja.
01:13
And the idea there is that outside the spaceship,
10
49000
2000
I ideja je da je izvan tog svemirskog broda,
01:15
the universe is implacably hostile,
11
51000
3000
univerzum neumoljivo neprijateljski nastrojen,
01:18
and inside is all we have, all we depend on.
12
54000
4000
i sve što imamo je unutar tog broda, od toga zavisimo.
01:22
And we only get the one chance: if we mess up our spaceship,
13
58000
3000
I imamo samo jednu šansu: ako "zeznemo" naš svemirski brod,
01:25
we've got nowhere else to go.
14
61000
2000
nemamo kuda da idemo.
01:27
Now, the second thing that everyone already knows is that
15
63000
4000
Druga stvar koju svi znaju je da
01:31
contrary to what was believed for most of human history,
16
67000
4000
suprotno onome u šta se verovalo kroz većinu ljudske istorije,
01:35
human beings are not, in fact, the hub of existence.
17
71000
6000
ljudska bića zapravo nisu središte egzistencije.
01:41
As Stephen Hawking famously said,
18
77000
3000
Kao što je Stiven Hoking rekao,
01:44
we're just a chemical scum on the surface of a typical planet
19
80000
4000
mi smo samo hemijski otpad na površini jedne tipične planete
01:48
that's in orbit around a typical star,
20
84000
3000
koja se nalazi u orbiti jedne tipične zvezde,
01:51
which is on the outskirts of a typical galaxy, and so on.
21
87000
5000
koja se nalazi na periferiji jedne tipične galaksije, i tako dalje.
01:56
Now the first of those two things that everyone knows
22
92000
3000
Prva od ove dve stvari koje svi znaju
01:59
is kind of saying that we're at a very un-typical place,
23
95000
4000
jeste tip onog razmišljanja da se mi nalazimo na jednom izuzetno atipičnom mestu,
02:03
uniquely suited and so on, and
24
99000
3000
jedinstveno smešteni i tome slično, i
02:06
the second one is saying that we're at a typical place.
25
102000
3000
druga bi bila tip razmišljanja da smo mi na jednom tipičnom mestu.
02:09
And especially if you regard these two as deep truths to live by
26
105000
4000
I posebno ukoliko birate da živite u skladu sa ove dve duboke istine
02:13
and to inform your life decisions,
27
109000
3000
i da vam one utiču na životne odluke,
02:16
then they seem a little bit to conflict with each other.
28
112000
7000
onda izgleda da su one prilično u konfliktu jedna sa drugom.
02:23
But that doesn't prevent them from both being completely false. (Laughter)
29
119000
6000
Ali to i dalje nije prepreka tome da one obe budu potpuno pogrešne. (Smeh)
02:29
And they are. So let me start with the second one:
30
125000
8000
One to i jesu. Tako mi dozvolite da započnem sa ovom drugom:
02:37
Typical. Well -- is this a typical place? Well, let's look around, you know,
31
133000
6000
Tipično. Pa -- da li je ovo tipično mesto? Pogledajmo okolo, znate,
02:43
and look in a random direction, and we see a wall, and chemical scum -- (Laughter)
32
139000
8000
pogledajte u bilo kom pravcu, videćete zid, i hemijski otpad -- (Smeh)
02:51
-- and that's not typical of the universe at all.
33
147000
5000
-- to uopšte nije tipično u univerzumu.
02:56
All you've got to do is go a few hundred miles in that same direction and look back,
34
152000
4000
Sve što treba da uradite jeste da odete nekoliko stotina milja u istom pravcu i da pogledate nazad,
03:00
and you won't see any walls or chemical scum at all --
35
156000
4000
nećete više videti ni zidove ni hemijski otpad --
03:04
all you see is a blue planet. And if you go further than that,
36
160000
4000
sve što ćete videti je plava planeta. A ako odete još dalje od toga,
03:08
you'll see the sun, the solar system, and the stars and so on.
37
164000
5000
videćete sunce, solarni sistem, zvezde i tako to.
03:13
But that's still not typical of the universe, because stars come in galaxies.
38
169000
5000
Ali to i dalje nije tipično u univerzumu, jer zvezde dolaze u galaksijama.
03:18
And most places in the universe, a typical place in the universe,
39
174000
5000
I većina mesta u univerzumu, tipično mesto u univerzumu,
03:23
is nowhere near any galaxies.
40
179000
2000
nije blizu nijedne galaksije.
03:25
So let's go out further, till we're outside the galaxy, and look back,
41
181000
6000
Tako da idemo dalje, dok ne stignemo izvan galaksije, i pogledamo nazad,
03:31
and yeah, there's the huge galaxy with spiral arms laid out in front of us.
42
187000
4000
i da, vidimo ogromnu galaksiju sa spiralnim rukama koje leže ispred nas.
03:35
And at this point we've come 100,000 light years from here.
43
191000
7000
To je tačka udaljena oko 100.000 svetlosnih godina odavde.
03:42
But we're still nowhere near a typical place in the universe.
44
198000
5000
Ali mi i dalje nismo ni blizu tipičnog mesta u univerzumu.
03:47
To get to a typical place,
45
203000
2000
Da bi stigli do tipičnog mesta,
03:49
you've got to go 1,000 times as far as that into intergalactic space.
46
205000
7000
morate ići 1000 puta dalje od tog mesta u intergalaktički prostor.
03:56
And so what does that look like? Typical.
47
212000
3000
I kako to izgleda? Tipično.
03:59
What does a typical place in the universe look like?
48
215000
3000
Kako izgleda tipično mesto u univerzumu?
04:02
Well, at enormous expense, TED has arranged a high-resolution immersion
49
218000
6000
Uz ogroman trošak, TED je omogućio predstavu visoke rezolucije
04:08
virtual reality rendering of intergalactic space
50
224000
4000
virtuelne relanosti intergalaktičkog prostora
04:12
-- the view from intergalactic space.
51
228000
2000
-- pogled iz intergalaktičkog prostora.
04:14
So can we have the lights off, please, so we can see it?
52
230000
4000
Mogu li se ugasiti svetla, molim vas, da bi mogli videti?
04:22
Well, not quite, not quite perfect -- you see, in intergalactic space
53
238000
6000
Pa, nije baš sasvim savršeno -- vidite, u interglaktičkom prostoru
04:28
-- intergalactic space is completely dark, pitch dark.
54
244000
4000
je potpuni mrak, mrkli mrak.
04:32
It's so dark that if you were to be looking at the nearest star to you,
55
248000
8000
Toliko je mračno da čak i ukoliko biste gledali u najbližu zvezdu,
04:40
and that star were to explode as a supernova,
56
256000
3000
a ta zvezda bi trebalo da eksplodira kao supernova,
04:44
and you were to be staring directly at it at the moment when its light reached you,
57
260000
5000
i ukoliko biste gledali direktno u nju dok vam se svetlost približava,
04:49
you still wouldn't be able to see even a glimmer.
58
265000
4000
i dalje ne biste bili u stanju da vidite čak ni bljesak.
04:53
That's how big and how dark the universe is.
59
269000
3000
Toliko je veliki i mračan univerzum.
04:56
And that's despite the fact that a supernova is so bright, so brilliant an event,
60
272000
7000
I to uprkos činjenici da je supernova tako sjajan, toliko blještav događaj,
05:03
that it would kill you stone dead at a range of several light years. (Laughter)
61
279000
6000
da bi vas ubilo na mestu da se nalazite na nekoliko svetlosnih godina daleko.
05:09
And yet from intergalactic space, it's so far away you wouldn't even see it.
62
285000
4000
Ali iz intergalaktičkog prostora, toliko je daleko da je ne biste ni videli.
05:13
It's also very cold out there
63
289000
3000
Takođe je i vrlo hladno tamo
05:16
-- less than three degrees above absolute zero.
64
292000
4000
-- manje od tri stepena iznad apsolutne nule.
05:20
And it's very empty. The vacuum there is one million times less dense
65
296000
6000
I veoma je prazno. Vakuum je tamo milion puta manje gustine
05:26
than the highest vacuum that our best technology on Earth can currently
66
302000
3000
nego najjači vakuum koji se trenutno na Zemlji, uz svu savremenu tehnologiju,
05:29
create. So that's how different a typical place is from this place.
67
305000
8000
može stvoriti. Eto koliko je drugačije tipično mesto od ovog mesta.
05:37
And that is how un-typical this place is.
68
313000
3000
I eto koliko je ovo mesto atipično.
05:40
So can we have the lights back on please? Thank you.
69
316000
5000
Možemo li dobiti svetlo nazad, molim vas? Hvala.
05:45
Now how do we know about an environment that's so far away,
70
321000
5000
Kako možemo znati nešto o okruženju koje je toliko daleko,
05:50
and so different, and so alien, from anything we're used to?
71
326000
4000
koje je toliko različito, toliko strano, od svega na šta smo navikli?
05:54
Well, the Earth -- our environment, in the form of us -- is creating knowledge.
72
330000
5000
E pa, Zemlja -- naše okruženje, u formi nas samih -- kreira znanje.
05:59
Well, what does that mean? Well, look out even further than we've just been --
73
335000
5000
Šta bi to značilo? Pa, pogledajte još dalje od mesta gde smo upravo bili --
06:04
I mean from here, with a telescope -- and you'll see things that look like stars.
74
340000
5000
mislim odavde, teleskopom -- videćete stvari koje liče na zvezde.
06:09
They're called "quasars." Quasars originally meant quasi-stellar object.
75
345000
5000
One se zovu kvazari. Kvazari originalno znači kvazi - zvezdani objekti.
06:14
Which means things that look a bit like stars. (Laughter) But they're not stars.
76
350000
5000
Što znači stvari koje liče na zvezde. (Smeh) Ali one nisu zvezde.
06:19
And we know what they are. Billions of years ago, and billions of light years away,
77
355000
8000
A mi znamo šta su. Milijarde godina pre i milijarde svetlosnih godina daleko,
06:27
the material at the center of a galaxy collapsed towards a
78
363000
4000
materijal u središtu galaksije se urušio
06:31
super-massive black hole.
79
367000
2000
u super masivnu crnu rupu.
06:33
And then intense magnetic fields directed some of the energy of
80
369000
5000
Potom su magnetna polja usmerila deo energije
06:38
that gravitational collapse. And some of the matter,
81
374000
3000
tog gravitacionog kolapsa. A nešto od tog materijala,
06:41
back out in the form of tremendous jets which illuminated lobes with the brilliance of
82
377000
5000
se izdvojilo u formi ogromnih aviona koji su osvetlili režnjeve svetlosnom jačinom od
06:46
-- I think it's a trillion suns.
83
382000
6000
-- mislim trilion sunaca.
06:52
Now, the physics of the human brain could hardly be more unlike the physics of such a jet.
84
388000
6000
Sada, fizika ljudskog mozga ne može biti različitija od fizike takvog mlaznjaka.
06:58
We couldn't survive for an instant in it. Language breaks down
85
394000
4000
Ne bismo mogli preživeti ni sekundu. Jezik se lomi
07:02
when trying to describe what it would be like in one of those jets.
86
398000
4000
kada samo pokušamo da objasnimo kako bi bilo u takvom mlaznjaku.
07:06
It would be a bit like experiencing a supernova explosion,
87
402000
3000
To bi bilo kao doživljaj eksplozije supernove,
07:09
but at point-blank range and for millions of years at a time. (Laughter)
88
405000
7000
ali u opsegu od milion godina u trenutku. (Smeh)
07:16
And yet, that jet happened in precisely such a way that billions of years later,
89
412000
8000
Pa opet, ta eksplozija se desila na takav način da milijardama godina kasnije,
07:24
on the other side of the universe, some bit of chemical scum could accurately describe,
90
420000
6000
na drugom kraju univerzuma, jedan deo hemijskog otpada u mogućnosti je da opiše
07:30
and model, and predict, and explain, above all -- there's your reference
91
426000
6000
i predstavi, i predvidi, i objasni, iznad svega,
07:36
-- what was happening there, in reality.
92
432000
5000
šta se desilo tamo, u realnosti.
07:41
The one physical system, the brain,
93
437000
2000
Jedan fizički sistem , mozak,
07:43
contains an accurate working model of the other -- the quasar.
94
439000
4000
sadrži tačan radni model drugog -- kvazara.
07:47
Not just a superficial image of it, though it contains that as well,
95
443000
4000
Ne samo površnu sliku toga, iako sadrži i nju,
07:51
but an explanatory model, embodying the same mathematical
96
447000
4000
već objašnjavajući model, koji predstavlja iste matematičke
07:55
relationships and the same causal structure.
97
451000
3000
odnose i iste uzročne strukture.
07:58
Now that is knowledge. And if that weren't amazing enough,
98
454000
5000
To je znanje. I ukoliko ovo nije bilo dovoljno zadivljujuće,
08:03
the faithfulness with which the one structure resembles the other
99
459000
4000
verodostojnost kojom jedna struktura podseća na sledeću
08:07
is increasing with time. That is the growth of knowledge.
100
463000
5000
vremenom se povećava. To je rast znanja.
08:12
So, the laws of physics have this special property.
101
468000
3000
Zakoni fizike, tako, imaju ovu posebnu vrednost.
08:15
That physical objects, as unlike each other as they could possibly be,
102
471000
5000
Fizički objekti, ne toliko nalik jedan drugom koliko bi mogli biti,
08:20
can nevertheless embody the same mathematical and causal structure
103
476000
5000
ipak otelovljuju iste matematičke i uzročne strukture
08:25
and to do it more and more so over time.
104
481000
4000
i to sve više i više tokom vremena.
08:29
So we are a chemical scum that is different. This chemical scum has universality.
105
485000
7000
Mi smo hemijski otpad koji je različit. Hemijski otpad poseduje univerzalnost.
08:36
Its structure contains, with ever-increasing precision,
106
492000
4000
Njegova struktura sadrži, sa stalno uvećavajućom preciznošću,
08:40
the structure of everything. This place, and not other places in the universe,
107
496000
5000
strukturu svega. Ovo mesto, i ne ostala mesta u univerzumu,
08:45
is a hub which contains within itself the structural and causal essence of the
108
501000
7000
glavna je tačka koja sadrži unutar sebe strukturnu i uzročnu esenciju
08:52
whole of the rest of physical reality. And so, far from being insignificant,
109
508000
4000
čitavog ostatka fizičke realnosti. I tako, daleko od toga da je bez značaja,
08:56
the fact that the laws of physics allow this, or even mandate that this can happen,
110
512000
6000
činjenica da zakoni fizike omogućavaju to, ili pak samo dozvoljavaju da se to dešava,
09:02
is one of the most important things about the physical world.
111
518000
5000
jedna je od najbitnijih stvari o fizičkom svetu.
09:07
Now how does the solar system -- and our environment, in the form of us --
112
523000
6000
E sada, kako solarni sistem -- i naše okruženje, u formi nas --
09:13
acquire this special relationship with the rest of the universe?
113
529000
3000
postiže ovu specifičnu vezu sa ostatkom univerzuma?
09:16
Well, one thing that's true about Stephen Hawking's remark -- I mean, it is true,
114
532000
6000
Jedna stvar koja je tačna u vezi sa zapažanjem Stivena Hokinga -- mislim, jeste istina,
09:22
but it's the wrong emphasis. (Laughter) One thing that's true about it is that
115
538000
4000
ali je pogrešan naglasak. Stvar koja je tačna u vezi sa tim je ta
09:26
it doesn't do it with any special physics. There's no special dispensation,
116
542000
6000
da to nije postignuto nikakvom posebnom fizikom. Nema posebnih božjih zakona,
09:32
no miracles involved. It does it simply with three things that we have here in abundance.
117
548000
6000
čuda nisu uključena. To se postiže jednostavno pomoću tri stvari koje imamo ovde u izobilju.
09:38
One of them is matter, because the growth of knowledge is a form of
118
554000
5000
Jedna od njih je supstanca/materija, jer rast znanja je forma
09:43
information processing. Information processing is computation,
119
559000
4000
procesuiranja informacija. Procesuiranje informacija je računanje,
09:47
computation requires a computer --
120
563000
2000
računanje zahteva kompjuter --
09:49
there's no known way of making a computer without matter.
121
565000
3000
ne postoji poznati način stvaranja kompjutera bez materije.
09:52
We also need energy to make the computer, and most important,
122
568000
3000
Takođe nam je potrebna energija da bismo stvorili kompjuter, i najvažnije,
09:55
to make the media in effect onto which we record the knowledge that we discover.
123
571000
6000
da bi napravili medij kako bismo zabeležili znanje koje smo stekli.
10:01
And then thirdly, less tangible, but just as essential for the open-ended creation
124
577000
6000
I treće, manje opipljivo, ali jednako važno za kreaciju
10:07
of knowledge, of explanations, is evidence.
125
583000
5000
znanja i objašnjenja, je dokaz.
10:12
Now, our environment is inundated with evidence.
126
588000
4000
E sada, naše okruženje je preplavljeno dokazima.
10:16
We happen to get round to testing, let's say, Newton's Law of Gravity
127
592000
6000
Desi se da treba da testiramo -- recimo, Njutnovu teoriju gravitacije
10:22
about 300 years ago.
128
598000
2000
-- pre 300 godina.
10:24
But the evidence that we used to do that was falling down on every square meter
129
600000
6000
Ali dokazi koje smo uobičajeno koristili u tu svrhu padaju dole na svaki kvadratni metar
10:30
of the Earth for billions of years before that, and will continue to fall on for billions of years
130
606000
5000
zemlje milijardama godina unazad, i nastaviće da padaju još milijardama godina
10:35
afterwards. And the same is true for all the other sciences.
131
611000
4000
ubuduće. I ista je istina za sve ostale nauke.
10:39
As far as we know, evidence to discover the most fundamental truths
132
615000
5000
Koliko nam je poznato, dokaz za razotkrivanje najfundamentalnijih istina
10:44
of all the sciences is here just for the taking on our planet.
133
620000
4000
u svim naukama je ovde samo da bi se uzeo sa naše planete.
10:48
Our location is saturated with evidence, and also with matter and energy.
134
624000
6000
Naša lokacija je prepuna dokaza, a takođe i materije i energije.
10:54
Out in intergalactic space, those three prerequisites
135
630000
3000
Tamo u intergalaktičkom prostoru, ova tri preduslova
10:57
for the open-ended creation of knowledge are at their lowest possible supply.
136
633000
5000
za kreaciju sa konačnim krajem saznanja su na najnižem mogućem nivou.
11:02
As I said, it's empty; it's cold; and it's dark out there. Or is it?
137
638000
6000
Kao što sam rekao, tamo je prazno i hladno i mračno. Ili nije?
11:08
Now actually, that's just another parochial misconception. (Laughter)
138
644000
5000
Zapravo, to je samo još jedna parohijska zabluda. (Smeh)
11:13
Because imagine a cube out there in intergalactic space, the same size as
139
649000
7000
Jer zamislite kocku tamo negde u intergalaktičkom prostoru, iste večine kao
11:20
our home, the solar system. Now that cube is very empty by human standards,
140
656000
5000
naš dom, solarni sistem. Ta kocka je vrlo prazna po ljudskim standardima,
11:25
but that still means that it contains over a million tons of matter.
141
661000
5000
ali to i dalje znači da ona sadrži preko milion tona materije.
11:30
And a million tons is enough to make, say, a self-contained space station,
142
666000
5000
A milion tona je dovoljno da se napravi, recimo, samodržeća svemirska stanica,
11:35
on which there's a colony of scientists that are devoted to creating an
143
671000
4000
na kojoj se nalazi kolonija naučnika koji su posvećeni kreiranju
11:39
open-ended stream of knowledge, and so on.
144
675000
3000
jednog otvorenog toka znanja, i tako dalje.
11:42
Now, it's way beyond present technology to even gather the hydrogen
145
678000
4000
To je daleko iznad trenutne tehnologije da se eventualno sakupi hidrogen
11:46
from intergalactic space and form it into other elements and so on.
146
682000
5000
iz intergalaktičkog prostora i iz njega formiraju drugi elementi i tako redom.
11:51
But the thing is, in a comprehensible universe,
147
687000
4000
Ali stvar je u tome što, u razumljivom i jasnom univerzumu,
11:55
if something isn't forbidden by the laws of physics,
148
691000
3000
ako nešto nije zabranjeno zakonima fizike,
11:58
then what could possibly prevent us from doing it, other than knowing how?
149
694000
4000
šta nas može sprečiti da uradimo nešto, ukoliko znamo kako?
12:02
In other words, it's a matter of knowledge, not resources.
150
698000
4000
Drugim rečima, to je stvar znanja, ne resursa.
12:06
And the same -- well, if we could do that we'd automatically have an energy supply,
151
702000
3000
I takođe -- pa, ukoliko bi mogli da uradimo to mi bi automatski imali zalihu energije,
12:09
because the transmutation would be a fusion reactor -- and evidence?
152
705000
6000
jer bi transmutacija bila fuzija reaktora -- a dokaz?
12:15
Well, again, it's dark out there to human senses. But all you've got to do is
153
711000
4000
Pa, opet, mračno je tamo za ljudska čula. Ali sve što treba da se uradi je
12:19
take a telescope, even one of present-day design,
154
715000
3000
da se uzme teleskop, čak jedan današnjeg dizajna,
12:22
look out and you'll see the same galaxies as we do from here.
155
718000
5000
da se pogleda gore i videćete iste galaksije kao što se vide i odavde.
12:27
And with a more powerful telescope, you'll be able to see stars, and planets.
156
723000
4000
A sa moćnijim teleskopom, bićete u mogućnosti da vidite zvezde, i planete.
12:31
In those galaxies, you'll be able to do astrophysics, and learn the laws of physics.
157
727000
4000
U tim galaksijama, bićete u mogućnosti da radite astrofiziku, i da učite zakone fizike.
12:35
And locally there you could build particle accelerators,
158
731000
3000
I lokalno, možete izgraditi akcelerator
12:38
and learn elementary particle physics, and chemistry, and so on.
159
734000
3000
i učiti elementarnu fiziku, hemiju, i tako dalje.
12:41
Probably the hardest science to do would be biology field trips -- (Laughter) -- because it would take
160
737000
7000
Verovatno bi najteži bili terenski izleti iz biologije, jer bi bilo potrebno
12:48
several hundred million years to get to the nearest life-bearing planet and back.
161
744000
5000
nekoliko stotina miliona godina da se dođe do najbliže planete sa životom i nazad.
12:53
But I have to tell you -- and sorry, Richard --
162
749000
3000
Ali moram vam reći -- izvini Ričarde --
12:56
but I never did like biology field trips much,
163
752000
3000
nikada nisam voleo terenske vežbe iz biologije
12:59
and I think we can just about make do with one every few hundred million years.
164
755000
5000
i mislim da bi nam jedne u nekoliko stotina miliona godina bile sasvim dovoljne.
13:04
(Laughter)
165
760000
2000
(Smeh)
13:06
So in fact, intergalactic space does contain all the prerequisites for the open-ended
166
762000
9000
Tako zapravo, intergalaktički prostor sadrži sve preduslove za jedan otvoren
13:15
creation of knowledge. Any such cube, anywhere in the universe,
167
771000
4000
sistem znanja. Bilo koja takva kocka, negde u univerzumu,
13:19
could become the same kind of hub that we are,
168
775000
4000
bi mogla postati ista vrsta središta kakvo je naše,
13:23
if the knowledge of how to do so were present there.
169
779000
7000
ukoliko bi znanje o tome kako se to radi bilo prisutno tamo.
13:30
So we're not in a uniquely hospitable place.
170
786000
3000
Tako da mi nismo jedinstveno gostoprimivo mesto.
13:33
If intergalactic space is capable of creating an open-ended stream of explanations,
171
789000
5000
Ukoliko bi intergalaktički prostor bio sposoban za kreiranje otvorenog sistema objašnjenja,
13:38
then so is almost every other environment. So is the Earth. So is a polluted Earth.
172
794000
7000
tako bi onda bila i svaka druga sredina. Tako i Zemlja. Tako i zagađena Zemlja.
13:45
And the limiting factor, there and here, is not resources, because they're plentiful,
173
801000
6000
A ograničavajući faktor, i ovde i tamo, nisu resursi, jer ih ih je mnoštvo,
13:51
but knowledge, which is scarce.
174
807000
3000
već znanje, koga je malo.
13:54
Now this cosmic knowledge-based view may -- and I think ought to
175
810000
6000
E sada, taj kosmički pogled, baziran na znanju, može - a ja mislim i trebalo bi
14:00
-- make us feel very special. But it should also make us feel vulnerable,
176
816000
5000
-- da učini da se osećamo veoma posebno. Ali takođe treba da učini da se osećamo i ranjivo,
14:05
because it means that without the specific knowledge that's needed to survive
177
821000
4000
jer to znači da bez specifičnog znanja neophodnog da bi preživeli
14:09
the ongoing challenges of the universe, we won't survive them.
178
825000
4000
izazovi koji se dešavaju u univerzumu, ne bismo ih preživeli.
14:13
All it takes is for a supernova to go off a few light years away, and we'll all be dead!
179
829000
5000
Sve što je potrebno jeste da jedna supernova eksplodira nekoliko svetlosnih godina daleko, i svi bismo bili mrtvi!
14:18
Martin Rees has recently written a book about our vulnerability to all sorts of things,
180
834000
6000
Martin Ris je nedavno napisao knjigu o našoj ranjivosti na svakakve stvari,
14:24
from astrophysics, to scientific experiments gone wrong,
181
840000
4000
od astrofizike, do toga da naučni eksperimenti odu pogrešno,
14:28
and most importantly to terrorism with weapons of mass destruction.
182
844000
4000
i što je najvažnije na terorizam sa oružjem masovno uništenje.
14:32
And he thinks that civilization has only a 50 percent chance of surviving this century.
183
848000
5000
I on misli da civilizacija ima svega 50% šanse da preživi ovaj vek.
14:37
I think he's going to talk about that later in the conference.
184
853000
4000
Mislim da će pričati o ovome kasnije na konferenciji.
14:41
Now I don't think that probability is the right category to discuss this issue in.
185
857000
6000
Ne mislim da je verovatnoća prava kategorija o kojoj bi pričali u okviru ove teme.
14:47
But I do agree with him about this. We can survive, and we can fail to survive.
186
863000
7000
Ali se slažem sa njim o ovome. Mi možemo preživeti, ali i ne moramo.
14:54
But it depends not on chance, but on whether we create the relevant knowledge in time.
187
870000
6000
Ali to ne zavisi od šansi, već od toga da li ćemo na vreme stvoriti relevantno znanje.
15:00
The danger is not at all unprecedented. Species go extinct all the time.
188
876000
6000
Opasnost uopšte nije bez presedana. Vrste stalno bivaju istrebljivane.
15:06
Civilizations end. The overwhelming majority of all species and all civilizations
189
882000
6000
Civilizacije se završavaju. Većina nadmoćnih vrsta i civilizacija
15:12
that have ever existed are now history.
190
888000
2000
koje su ikada postojale su sada istorija.
15:14
And if we want to be the exception to that, then logically our only hope
191
890000
6000
I ukoliko želimo da budemo izuzetak, logično, naša jedina nada
15:20
is to make use of the one feature that distinguishes our species,
192
896000
5000
je da upotrebimo jednu stvar koja nas razdvaja kao vrstu,
15:25
and our civilization, from all the others --
193
901000
3000
i našu civilizaciju od svih drugih.
15:28
namely, our special relationship with the laws of physics,
194
904000
4000
A to je naša specijalna veza sa zakonima fizike.
15:32
our ability to create new explanations, new knowledge -- to be a hub of existence.
195
908000
8000
Naša sposobnost da nalazimo nova objašnjenja, nova znanja -- da smo središte postojanja.
15:40
So let me now apply this to a current controversy,
196
916000
4000
I dozvolite mi sada da ovo primenim na trenutnu kontroverzu,
15:44
not because I want to advocate any particular solution,
197
920000
3000
ne zato da bih zastupao neko posebno rešenje,
15:47
but just to illustrate the kind of thing I mean.
198
923000
2000
već samo da ilustrujem vrstu stvari na koju mislim.
15:49
And the controversy is global warming.
199
925000
3000
Kontroverza je globalno zagrejavanje.
15:52
Now, I'm a physicist, but I'm not the right kind of physicist. In regard to global warming,
200
928000
5000
Ja sam fizičar, ali nisam prava vrsta fizičara. U odnosu na globalno zagrevanje,
15:57
I'm just a layman. And the rational thing for a layman to do is to take seriously
201
933000
6000
ja sam samo laik. I racionalna stvar koju laik može da uradi je da shvati ozbiljno
16:03
the prevailing scientific theory. And according to that theory,
202
939000
5000
preovlađujuću naučnu teoriju. A po toj teoriji,
16:08
it's already too late to avoid a disaster.
203
944000
3000
već je prekasno da se izbegne katastrofa.
16:11
Because if it's true that our best option at the moment is to prevent CO2 emissions
204
947000
6000
Jer ukoliko je tačno da nam je najbolja opcija u ovom trenutku da sprečimo emisiju CO2
16:17
with something like the Kyoto Protocol, with its constraints on economic activity
205
953000
4000
nečim kao što je Kjoto Protokol, sa svojim ograničenjima na ekonomsku aktivnost
16:21
and its enormous cost of hundreds of billions of dollars or whatever it is,
206
957000
4000
i sa svim enormnim troškovima od stotine milijardi dolara ili već koliko,
16:25
then that is already a disaster by any reasonable measure.
207
961000
5000
onda je to već katastrofa po svim razumnim merilima.
16:30
And the actions that are advocated are not even purported to solve the problem,
208
966000
5000
A akcije koje se predlažu nisu ni izdaleka dovoljne da bi se problem rešio,
16:35
merely to postpone it by a little. So it's already too late to avoid it, and it
209
971000
5000
možda ga samo mogu odložiti za kratko. Tako je već prekasno da bi se izbegao, i
16:40
probably has been too late to avoid it ever since before anyone realized the danger.
210
976000
6000
verovatno je bilo prekasno da se izbegne davno pre nego je iko prepoznao i shvatio opasnost.
16:46
It was probably already too late in the 1970s,
211
982000
4000
Verovatno je bilo prekasno i 1970.,
16:50
when the best available scientific theory was telling us that industrial emissions
212
986000
4000
kada nam je najbolja dostupna naučna teorija govorila da industrijska emisija
16:54
were about to precipitate a new ice age in which billions would die.
213
990000
5000
ubrzava novo ledeno doba u kome ćemo svi umreti.
16:59
Now the lesson of that seems clear to me,
214
995000
3000
Lekcija se čini očiglednom meni,
17:02
and I don't know why it isn't informing public debate.
215
998000
3000
i ne znam zašto ne utiče na neku javnu debatu.
17:05
It is that we can't always know. When we know of an impending disaster,
216
1001000
6000
To je zato što ne možemo uvek znati. Kada smo upoznati sa katastrofom nad nama,
17:11
and how to solve it at a cost less than the cost of the disaster itself,
217
1007000
5000
i kako da je rešimo po ceni manjoj nego što bi bila sama katastrofa,
17:16
then there's not going to be much argument, really.
218
1012000
2000
onda i nema mesta za argumentisanje, čini se.
17:18
But no precautions, and no precautionary principle,
219
1014000
5000
Ali nikakva upozorenja, nikakve mere predostrožnosti,
17:23
can avoid problems that we do not yet foresee.
220
1019000
4000
ne mogu uticati da se izbegnu problemi koje još nismo predvideli.
17:27
Hence, we need a stance of problem-fixing, not just problem-avoidance.
221
1023000
9000
Stoga nam je potreban stav o rešavanju problema, ne samo izbegavanje problema.
17:36
And it's true that an ounce of prevention equals a pound of cure,
222
1032000
3000
I tačno je da je unca prevencije jednaka kilogramu leka,
17:39
but that's only if we know what to prevent.
223
1035000
3000
ali to samo ukoliko znamo na šta se odnosi prevencija.
17:42
If you've been punched on the nose, then the science of medicine does not
224
1038000
4000
Ako ste primili udarac u nos, onda medicina ne treba
17:46
consist of teaching you how to avoid punches. (Laughter)
225
1042000
4000
da se sastoji u učenju toga kako izbegavati udarce.
17:50
If medical science stopped seeking cures and concentrated on prevention only,
226
1046000
5000
Ako bi se medicinska nauka zaustavila u traženju lekova i skoncentrisala samo na prevenciju,
17:55
then it would achieve very little of either.
227
1051000
3000
onda bi postigla jako malo od oboje.
17:58
The world is buzzing at the moment with plans to force reductions
228
1054000
4000
Svet je trenutno prepun planova o redukciji
18:02
in gas emissions at all costs.
229
1058000
2000
emisije gasa po svaku cenu.
18:04
It ought to be buzzing with plans to reduce the temperature,
230
1060000
5000
Trebalo bi da je prepun planova o redukciji temperature,
18:09
and with plans to live at the higher temperature --
231
1065000
3000
i planova da se živi pod većom temperaturom.
18:12
and not at all costs, but efficiently and cheaply. And some such plans exist,
232
1068000
5000
I ne po svaku cenu, već efikasno i jeftino. I neki takvi planovi postoje,
18:17
things like swarms of mirrors in space to deflect the sunlight away,
233
1073000
4000
stvari kao što su sistemi ogledala u prostoru koji odbijaju svetlost,
18:21
and encouraging aquatic organisms to eat more carbon dioxide.
234
1077000
4000
i ohrabrivanje vodenih organizama da jedu više ugljen dioksida.
18:25
At the moment, these things are fringe research.
235
1081000
3000
U ovom trenutku, ove stvari su na začetku istraživanja.
18:28
They're not central to the human effort to face this problem, or problems in general.
236
1084000
6000
One nisu centralne u ljudskim nastojanjima da se suoče sa ovim problemom, ili problemima uopšteno.
18:34
And with problems that we are not aware of yet, the ability to put right --
237
1090000
5000
A sa problemima kojih još nismo svesni, sposobnost da postupimo pravilno --
18:39
not the sheer good luck of avoiding indefinitely -- is our only hope,
238
1095000
5000
ne čista sreća da se izbegnu na neodređeno vreme -- naša je jedina nada,
18:44
not just of solving problems, but of survival.
239
1100000
4000
ne samo za rešenje problema, već za opstanak.
18:48
So take two stone tablets, and carve on them.
240
1104000
7000
Uzmite dva kamena i ugravirajte ih.
18:55
On one of them, carve: "Problems are soluble."
241
1111000
5000
Na jednom izrezbarite "Problemi su rešivi."
19:00
And on the other one carve: "Problems are inevitable."
242
1116000
4000
A na drugom "Problemi su neizbežni."
19:04
Thank you. (Applause)
243
1120000
2000
Hvala vam. (Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
David Deutsch - Quantum physicistDavid Deutsch's 1997 book "The Fabric of Reality" laid the groundwork for an all-encompassing Theory of Everything, and galvanized interest in the idea of a quantum computer, which could solve problems of hitherto unimaginable complexity.
Why you should listen
David Deutsch will force you to reconsider your place in the world. This legendary Oxford physicist is the leading proponent of the multiverse (or "many worlds") interpretation of quantum theory -- the idea that our universe is constantly spawning countless numbers of parallel worlds.
In his own words: "Everything in our universe -- including you and me, every atom and every galaxy -- has counterparts in these other universes." If that doesn't alter your consciousness, then the other implications he's derived from his study of subatomic physics -- including the possibility of time travel -- just might.
In The Fabric of Reality, Deutsch tied together quantum mechanics, evolution, a rationalist approach to knowledge, and a theory of computation based on the work of Alan Turing. "Our best theories are not only truer than common sense, they make more sense than common sense,"Deutsch wrote, and he continues to explore the most mind-bending aspects of particle physics.
In 2008, he became a member of the Royal Society of London.
David Deutsch | Speaker | TED.com