TEDxBinghamtonUniversity
Hannah Fry: The mathematics of love
汉娜·弗里: 爱情数学
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寻得最好的伴侣谈何容易，这事儿能够透过数学来完成吗？在这迷人的谈话中，数学家汉娜·弗里向我们展示了人们看待爱情的规律，并且揭露了三大秘诀（已经由数学验证！）来帮助你获得那最特别之人。
Hannah Fry - Complexity theorist
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Hannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
Today I want to talk to you
about the mathematics of love.
about the mathematics of love.
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今天我想要和大家谈谈
关于爱情的数学。
关于爱情的数学。
00:16
Now, I think that we can all agree
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我想大家都同意
00:18
that mathematicians
are famously excellent at finding love.
are famously excellent at finding love.
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数学家在寻找真爱上特别在行。
00:23
But it's not just
because of our dashing personalities,
because of our dashing personalities,
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但那并不只是因为我们
精力充沛的性格，
精力充沛的性格，
00:27
superior conversational skills
and excellent pencil cases.
and excellent pencil cases.
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超凡的对话技巧，
和极好的笔盒。
和极好的笔盒。
00:31
It's also because we've actually done
an awful lot of work into the maths
an awful lot of work into the maths
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也是因为我们真的
花了许多时间精力在数学上，
花了许多时间精力在数学上，
00:36
of how to find the perfect partner.
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计算如何找到完美的伴侣。
00:38
Now, in my favorite paper
on the subject, which is entitled,
on the subject, which is entitled,
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现在，在此学科中我最爱的论文，名为
00:41
"Why I Don't Have a Girlfriend" --
(Laughter) --
(Laughter) --
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“为什么我没有女友”
（笑声）
（笑声）
00:45
Peter Backus tries to rate
his chances of finding love.
his chances of finding love.
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Peter Backus 试着
计算他寻得真爱的机会。
计算他寻得真爱的机会。
00:49
Now, Peter's not a very greedy man.
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现在，Peter 不是一个非常贪心的人。
00:51
Of all of the available women in the U.K.,
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在英国所有适宜的女性对象中，
00:53
all Peter's looking for
is somebody who lives near him,
is somebody who lives near him,
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Peter 所看的，
就只是那个住在他附近的对象，
就只是那个住在他附近的对象，
00:56
somebody in the right age range,
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某个处于适宜的年龄阶段，
00:58
somebody with a university degree,
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某个拥有大学文凭，
01:01
somebody he's likely to get on well with,
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某个他很有可能相处地不错的对象，
01:03
somebody who's likely to be attractive,
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某个有魅力的女子，
01:05
somebody who's likely
to find him attractive.
to find him attractive.
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以及某个认为他也富有魅力的对象。
01:08
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
01:11
And comes up with an estimate
of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
of 26 women in the whole of the UK.
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结果他估计在全英国
大概有 26 位此类女性。
大概有 26 位此类女性。
01:17
It's not looking very good,
is it Peter?
is it Peter?
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这看来很不妙，不是吗，Peter？
01:19
Now, just to put that into perspective,
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我们好好思考一下这件事，
01:21
that's about 400 times fewer
than the best estimates
than the best estimates
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在无数聪明外星生命形式存在的情况下，
01:24
of how many intelligent
extraterrestrial life forms there are.
extraterrestrial life forms there are.
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那是少于 400 倍数的估计呀。
01:28
And it also gives Peter
a 1 in 285,000 chance
a 1 in 285,000 chance
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那也给了 Peter 一个
在某晚遇见一个特别的女子
01:33
of bumping into any one
of these special ladies
of these special ladies
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28 万 5 千之 1 的机会。
01:35
on a given night out.
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01:37
I'd like to think
that's why mathematicians
that's why mathematicians
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我宁愿想着那就是为什么数学家
01:39
don't really bother
going on nights out anymore.
going on nights out anymore.
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不再怎么想晚上出去约会了。
01:42
The thing is that I personally
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重点是，我个人其实并不同意
01:44
don't subscribe
to such a pessimistic view.
to such a pessimistic view.
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这种悲观的看法。
01:47
Because I know,
just as well as all of you do,
just as well as all of you do,
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因为我知道，如同你们所有所知道的，
01:49
that love doesn't really work like that.
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爱情并不是这样发生的。
01:52
Human emotion isn't neatly ordered
and rational and easily predictable.
and rational and easily predictable.
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人类的情感不是那样地秩序井然、
干净利落、逻辑清晰，以及容易预测。
干净利落、逻辑清晰，以及容易预测。
01:57
But I also know that that doesn't mean
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但我也知道那并不意谓着
01:59
that mathematics hasn't got something
that it can offer us
that it can offer us
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数学无法提供帮助，
02:03
because, love, as with most of life,
is full of patterns
is full of patterns
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因为爱情，如同生命中多数的事物一般，
充斥着许多规律，
充斥着许多规律，
02:06
and mathematics is, ultimately,
all about the study of patterns.
all about the study of patterns.
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而数学，最终，就是那讲求规律的学说。
02:11
Patterns from predicting the weather
to the fluctuations in the stock market,
to the fluctuations in the stock market,
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从预测天候，到
预测股票市场的开高走低，
预测股票市场的开高走低，
02:15
to the movement of the planets
or the growth of cities.
or the growth of cities.
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到星球的运转，或都市的发展。
02:18
And if we're being honest,
none of those things
none of those things
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如果我们对自己诚实的话，
上述那些东西，没有一个是
上述那些东西，没有一个是
02:21
are exactly neatly ordered
and easily predictable, either.
and easily predictable, either.
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井然有序以及容易预测的。
02:24
Because I believe that mathematics
is so powerful that it has the potential
is so powerful that it has the potential
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因为我相信，数学的力量非常强大，
以至于它让我们得以以新方法
以至于它让我们得以以新方法
02:29
to offer us a new way of looking
at almost anything.
at almost anything.
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重新看待任何事物。
02:33
Even something as mysterious as love.
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就算是和爱情一般神秘的东西也是。
02:37
And so, to try to persuade you
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为了试着说服你们
02:38
of how totally amazing, excellent
and relevant mathematics is,
and relevant mathematics is,
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数学的神妙用处，
02:43
I want to give you my top three
mathematically verifiable tips for love.
mathematically verifiable tips for love.
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我想要给大家三个最重要的
在数学上可以验证的爱情秘诀。
在数学上可以验证的爱情秘诀。
02:51
Okay, so Top Tip #1:
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好，首先最重要的秘技一：
02:53
How to win at online dating.
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如何赢得线上交友的机会。
02:58
So my favorite online dating
website is OkCupid,
website is OkCupid,
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我最爱的线上交友网站是 OkCupid
（网站名：好吧，丘比特），
（网站名：好吧，丘比特），
03:02
not least because it was started
by a group of mathematicians.
by a group of mathematicians.
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这并不仅仅因为这网站
是由一群数学家所架设的。
是由一群数学家所架设的。
03:05
Now, because they're mathematicians,
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因为他们是数学家，
03:07
they have been collecting data
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他们已经搜集了
03:09
on everybody who uses their site
for almost a decade.
for almost a decade.
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近乎这十年来所有
他们网站使用者的资料。
他们网站使用者的资料。
03:11
And they've been trying
to search for patterns
to search for patterns
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他们试着寻找
03:14
in the way that we talk about ourselves
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我们在线上
谈论自己的方式的模式，
03:16
and the way that we
interact with each other
interact with each other
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以及我们和他人互动的模式。
03:18
on an online dating website.
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03:19
And they've come up with some
seriously interesting findings.
seriously interesting findings.
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他们发现了一些重要的有趣结果。
03:22
But my particular favorite
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但我特别喜欢的结果之一是
03:24
is that it turns out
that on an online dating website,
that on an online dating website,
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在线上交友网站上
03:27
how attractive you are
does not dictate how popular you are,
does not dictate how popular you are,
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你的魅力程度并无法
预测你的受欢迎程度，
预测你的受欢迎程度，
03:33
and actually, having people
think that you're ugly
think that you're ugly
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事实上，让人们觉得你很丑
03:37
can work to your advantage.
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可以让你拥有优势。
03:40
Let me show you how this works.
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让我向各位展示这是怎么一回事。
03:42
In a thankfully voluntary
section of OkCupid,
section of OkCupid,
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在 OkCupid 的一个志愿栏目中，
03:46
you are allowed to rate
how attractive you think people are
how attractive you think people are
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你可以评价人们的魅力值，
03:49
on a scale between 1 and 5.
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从 1 到 5 。
03:52
Now, if we compare this score,
the average score,
the average score,
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现在，如果我们比较这个分数，
平均分数，
平均分数，
03:55
to how many messages a
selection of people receive,
selection of people receive,
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有多少人收到信息，
03:58
you can begin to get a sense
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你就可以开始理解
03:59
of how attractiveness links to popularity
on an online dating website.
on an online dating website.
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在一个线上约会网站上
魅力指数与受欢迎程度有关。
魅力指数与受欢迎程度有关。
04:03
This is the graph that the OkCupid guys
have come up with.
have come up with.
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这是 OkCupid 得到的图表。
04:07
And the important thing to notice
is that it's not totally true
is that it's not totally true
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一件重要的值得注意的事是
04:10
that the more attractive you are,
the more messages you get.
the more messages you get.
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并不是越有魅力的人，
收到的信息越多。
收到的信息越多。
04:13
But the question arises then
of what is it about people up here
of what is it about people up here
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问题是，为什么上面的这些人
04:16
who are so much more popular
than people down here,
than people down here,
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比下面这些人要受欢迎得多，
04:21
even though they have the
same score of attractiveness?
same score of attractiveness?
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即便他们都有相同的魅力值？
04:24
And the reason why is that it's not just
straightforward looks that are important.
straightforward looks that are important.
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原因是，并不是直观的外貌是重要的。
04:28
So let me try to illustrate their
findings with an example.
findings with an example.
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让我来谈谈他们的发现，
以一个案例说明。
以一个案例说明。
04:31
So if you take someone like
Portia de Rossi, for example,
Portia de Rossi, for example,
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如果你拿 Portia de Rossi 为例，
04:35
everybody agrees that Portia de Rossi
is a very beautiful woman.
is a very beautiful woman.
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每个人都同意 Portia de Rossi
是个非常美丽的女人，
是个非常美丽的女人，
04:40
Nobody thinks that she's ugly,
but she's not a supermodel, either.
but she's not a supermodel, either.
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没有人觉得她丑，但她也不是超模。
04:43
If you compare Portia de Rossi
to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
to someone like Sarah Jessica Parker,
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如果你拿某个人，比如
Sarah Jessica Parker
（译者注：欲望都市女主角）来和她比较
Sarah Jessica Parker
（译者注：欲望都市女主角）来和她比较
04:48
now, a lot of people,
myself included, I should say,
myself included, I should say,
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许多人，包括我自己，我应该会说，
04:51
think that Sarah Jessica Parker
is seriously fabulous
is seriously fabulous
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Sarah Jessica Parker 魅力极为出众，
04:56
and possibly one of the
most beautiful creatures
most beautiful creatures
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有可能是地表上
04:58
to have ever have walked
on the face of the Earth.
on the face of the Earth.
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最美丽的物种之一。
05:01
But some other people,
i.e., most of the Internet,
i.e., most of the Internet,
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但许多其他人，比如，大多数的网友
05:07
seem to think that she looks
a bit like a horse. (Laughter)
a bit like a horse. (Laughter)
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似乎都认为她看起来像马。（笑声）
05:13
Now, I think that if you ask people
how attractive they thought
how attractive they thought
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如果你问人们他们觉得自己有多美，
05:17
Sarah Jessica Parker
or Portia de Rossi were,
or Portia de Rossi were,
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Sarah Jessica Parker
或 Portia de Rossi
或 Portia de Rossi
05:19
and you ask them to give
them a score between 1 and 5,
them a score between 1 and 5,
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你要他们给自己打分，从 1 到 5，
05:22
I reckon that they'd average out
to have roughly the same score.
to have roughly the same score.
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我猜他们也会大约给一个
和大家都差不多的数字。
和大家都差不多的数字。
05:25
But the way that people would vote
would be very different.
would be very different.
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但是人们投票的方式各自不同。
05:27
So Portia's scores would
all be clustered around the 4
all be clustered around the 4
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因此 Portia 的分数会聚集在 4 分左右，
05:30
because everybody agrees
that she's very beautiful,
that she's very beautiful,
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因为所有人都同意，她非常美丽，
05:32
whereas Sarah Jessica Parker
completely divides opinion.
completely divides opinion.
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然而人们对 Sarah Jessica Parker
却有截然不同的意见。
却有截然不同的意见。
05:35
There'd be a huge spread in her scores.
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她的分差悬殊很大。
05:38
And actually it's this spread that counts.
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然而，事实上，就是那分差别具意义，
05:40
It's this spread
that makes you more popular
that makes you more popular
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那差异让你
05:42
on an online Internet dating website.
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在交友网站上受欢迎。
05:45
So what that means then
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所以那意味着
05:46
is that if some people
think that you're attractive,
think that you're attractive,
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如果有些人认为你别具魅力，
05:48
you're actually better off
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你最好有其他人认为
05:50
having some other people
think that you're a massive minger.
think that you're a massive minger.
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你很丑。
05:55
That's much better
than everybody just thinking
than everybody just thinking
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那远优于所有人认为
05:58
that you're the cute girl next door.
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你是邻家的可爱女孩。
05:59
Now, I think this begins
makes a bit more sense
makes a bit more sense
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当你们开始思考一下
这些寄送信息的人的话，
这些寄送信息的人的话，
06:02
when you think in terms of the people
who are sending these messages.
who are sending these messages.
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这开始变得合理些了。
06:05
So let's say that you think
somebody's attractive,
somebody's attractive,
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这么说吧，假设你认为那个人很美，
06:07
but you suspect that other people
won't necessarily be that interested.
won't necessarily be that interested.
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但你同时猜想其他人并不会
和你有同样的审美观。
和你有同样的审美观。
06:11
That means there's
less competition for you
less competition for you
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那就意味着，你的竞争对手略少，
06:14
and it's an extra incentive
for you to get in touch.
for you to get in touch.
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这就给你增加了额外的动机
去与他/她认识。
去与他/她认识。
06:16
Whereas compare that
to if you think somebody is attractive
to if you think somebody is attractive
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与之相对的情况是
你认为某人很有吸引力，
你认为某人很有吸引力，
06:19
but you suspect that everybody
is going to think they're attractive.
is going to think they're attractive.
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但你猜想所有其他的人
都认为那人很有吸引力，
都认为那人很有吸引力，
06:23
Well, why would you bother
humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
humiliating yourself, let's be honest?
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嗯，让我们面对事实
为什么要自取其辱呢？
为什么要自取其辱呢？
06:26
Here's where the really
interesting part comes.
interesting part comes.
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这就是最有趣的部分。
06:28
Because when people choose the pictures
that they use on an online dating website,
that they use on an online dating website,
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因为当人们去选择他们
在交友网站上使用的照片时，
在交友网站上使用的照片时，
06:33
they often try to minimize the things
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他们总是试图最小化
06:35
that they think some people
will find unattractive.
will find unattractive.
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其他人认为不吸引人之处的可能性。
06:39
The classic example is people
who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
who are, perhaps, a little bit overweight
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最经典的例子是，
那些体重略重的人
那些体重略重的人
06:43
deliberately choosing
a very cropped photo,
a very cropped photo,
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故意选择一个
剪裁非常不正的照片，
剪裁非常不正的照片，
06:46
or bald men, for example,
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例如那些秃顶的男士，
06:48
deliberately choosing pictures
where they're wearing hats.
where they're wearing hats.
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故意去选择他们带着帽子的照片。
06:51
But actually this is the opposite
of what you should do
of what you should do
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但你的行为是与你的目标相悖的，
06:54
if you want to be successful.
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如果你想要在网上交友成功。
06:55
You should really, instead, play up to
whatever it is that makes you different,
whatever it is that makes you different,
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你真的应该，去选择
让你看起来与众不同的照片，
让你看起来与众不同的照片，
07:00
even if you think that some people
will find it unattractive.
will find it unattractive.
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即便你认为某些人会对此失去兴趣。
07:04
Because the people who fancy you
are just going to fancy you anyway,
are just going to fancy you anyway,
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因为那些喜欢你的人
无论如何都会去喜欢你，
无论如何都会去喜欢你，
07:07
and the unimportant losers who don't,
well, they only play up to your advantage.
well, they only play up to your advantage.
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而那些不重要的路人
只是渲染你的优势。
只是渲染你的优势。
07:12
Okay, Top Tip #2:
How to pick the perfect partner.
How to pick the perfect partner.
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好了，最高秘诀 2 号：
如何选择完美的伴侣。
如何选择完美的伴侣。
07:14
So let's imagine then
that you're a roaring success
that you're a roaring success
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让我们想象你的约会
07:17
on the dating scene.
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精彩成功。
07:19
But the question arises
of how do you then convert that success
of how do you then convert that success
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但问题来了
你如何将那成功的约会
你如何将那成功的约会
07:23
into longer-term happiness
and in particular,
and in particular,
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转变成长期的快乐，尤其是，
07:27
how do you decide
when is the right time to settle down?
when is the right time to settle down?
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你要如何选择
在哪个时刻安定下来？
在哪个时刻安定下来？
07:31
Now generally,
it's not advisable to just cash in
it's not advisable to just cash in
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一般来说，
并不建议人们立刻
并不建议人们立刻
07:34
and marry the first person
who comes along
who comes along
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与第一个出现
07:36
and shows you any interest at all.
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对你表达好感的人结婚。
07:38
But, equally, you don't really
want to leave it too long
want to leave it too long
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但是，一般来说，如果你想要
最大化你未来数十年幸福婚姻的机会，
最大化你未来数十年幸福婚姻的机会，
07:41
if you want to maximize your
chance of long-term happiness.
chance of long-term happiness.
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你也不愿等待太久。
07:44
As my favorite author,
Jane Austen, puts it,
Jane Austen, puts it,
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我最喜欢的作家简·奥斯汀这样说，
07:47
"An unmarried woman of seven and twenty
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“一个未婚的 27 岁女子
07:50
can never hope to feel or
inspire affection again."
inspire affection again."
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就别指望再能感受或激发爱情了。”
07:53
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
07:55
Thanks a lot, Jane.
What do you know about love?
What do you know about love?
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这太严重了，简。
你对爱了解多少呢？
你对爱了解多少呢？
07:59
So the question is then,
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那么问题来了，
08:01
how do you know when
is the right time to settle down
is the right time to settle down
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你怎么知道哪个时刻
是该要安定下来的时刻，
是该要安定下来的时刻，
08:03
given all the people
that you can date in your lifetime?
that you can date in your lifetime?
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毕竟生命中你有很多可能的对象？
08:06
Thankfully, there's a rather delicious bit
of mathematics that we can use
of mathematics that we can use
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幸好，我们可以运用一点儿数学
08:10
to help us out here, called
optimal stopping theory.
optimal stopping theory.
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来帮助我们计算解决这个问题，
名叫 “最优停止理论”。
名叫 “最优停止理论”。
08:12
So let's imagine then,
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那么让我们来想象一下，
08:14
that you start dating when you're 15
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你在 15 岁的时候开始交往，
08:17
and ideally, you'd like to be married
by the time that you're 35.
by the time that you're 35.
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理想状态下，你在 35 岁的时候会结婚。
08:21
And there's a number of people
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你的人生中
08:22
that you could potentially
date across your lifetime,
date across your lifetime,
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有很多潜在的约会对象，
08:25
and they'll be at varying
levels of goodness.
levels of goodness.
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他们都有各自的优点。
08:27
Now the rules are that once
you cash in and get married,
you cash in and get married,
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规则是，你一旦跳进婚姻，
08:30
you can't look ahead to see
what you could have had,
what you could have had,
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你就不能继续前进寻找
你可能可以有的对象，
你可能可以有的对象，
08:32
and equally, you can't go back
and change your mind.
and change your mind.
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你也不能回头来改变你的主意。
08:35
In my experience at least,
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我个人的经验看来，
08:37
I find that typically people don't
much like being recalled
much like being recalled
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一般人们不希望
在被拒绝又过了多年后被找回来，
也许只有我这样想。
也许只有我这样想。
08:39
years after being passed up
for somebody else, or that's just me.
for somebody else, or that's just me.
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08:45
So the math says then
that what you should do
that what you should do
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数学告诉我们
08:48
in the first 37 percent
of your dating window,
of your dating window,
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你应该拒绝认为会和
在你人生约会周期
在你人生约会周期
08:51
you should just reject everybody
as serious marriage potential.
as serious marriage potential.
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前 37% 时段出现的任何人
有严肃认真的婚姻关系。
有严肃认真的婚姻关系。
08:55
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
08:57
And then, you should pick the
next person that comes along
next person that comes along
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接着，你要选择下一个人，
09:01
that is better than everybody
that you've seen before.
that you've seen before.
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那个比你以前约会对象都好的人。
09:04
So here's the example.
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这里举个例子。
09:05
Now if you do this, it can be
mathematically proven, in fact,
mathematically proven, in fact,
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如果你这么做，从数学证明来看
可以认为，事实上
可以认为，事实上
09:08
that this is the best possible way
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这可能是最好的选择
09:10
of maximizing your chances
of finding the perfect partner.
of finding the perfect partner.
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来最大化你找到完美伴侣的机会。
09:15
Now unfortunately, I have to tell you that
this method does come with some risks.
this method does come with some risks.
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现在不幸的是，我必须告诉你
这个方法也是有风险的。
这个方法也是有风险的。
09:20
For instance, imagine if
your perfect partner appeared
your perfect partner appeared
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比如，想象一下，假设你的完美伴侣
09:25
during your first 37 percent.
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出现在你约会历程的前 37%
09:28
Now, unfortunately,
you'd have to reject them.
you'd have to reject them.
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那就很不幸了，
你会拒绝他们。
你会拒绝他们。
09:30
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:33
Now, if you're following the maths,
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如果你相信数学，
09:35
I'm afraid no one else comes along
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恐怕你不会再找到
09:37
that's better than anyone
you've seen before,
you've seen before,
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比你以往见过更好的对象，
09:39
so you have to go on
rejecting everyone and die alone.
rejecting everyone and die alone.
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你就会持续拒绝每个人
然后孤独终老。
然后孤独终老。
09:44
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
09:46
Probably surrounded by cats
nibbling at your remains.
nibbling at your remains.
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可能会被猫咪包围
一点点啃食你的遗骸。
一点点啃食你的遗骸。
09:51
Okay, another risk is,
let's imagine, instead,
let's imagine, instead,
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好，另一个风险是，
让我们想象，相反的，
让我们想象，相反的，
09:55
that the first people that you dated
in your first 37 percent
in your first 37 percent
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你约会历程前 37% 里第一个对象
09:58
are just incredibly dull,
boring, terrible people.
boring, terrible people.
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极度愚蠢，无聊又很糟糕。
10:02
Now, that's okay, because
you're in your rejection phase,
you're in your rejection phase,
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没事，因为你还在拒绝对象的阶段，
10:05
so thats fine,
you can reject them.
you can reject them.
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没问题，
你可以拒绝他们。
你可以拒绝他们。
10:07
But then imagine, the next
person to come along
person to come along
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但想象一下，下一个出现的人
10:10
is just marginally less boring,
dull and terrible
dull and terrible
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只是没那么无聊，愚蠢
10:14
than everybody that you've seen before.
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比你以前的对象都略好那么一点儿。
10:16
Now, if you are following the maths,
I'm afraid you have to marry them
I'm afraid you have to marry them
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如果你遵循数学，
恐怕你要和他们结婚
恐怕你要和他们结婚
10:20
and end up in a relationship
which is, frankly, suboptimal.
which is, frankly, suboptimal.
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然后沉浸在一段，
实话说，次优的关系中。
实话说，次优的关系中。
10:24
Sorry about that.
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很抱歉。
10:25
But I do think that there's
an opportunity here
an opportunity here
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但我认为，机会还是有的
10:27
for Hallmark to cash in on
and really cater for this market.
and really cater for this market.
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3150
贺曼公司迎合市场需求
10:30
A Valentine's Day card like this.
(Laughter)
(Laughter)
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出售这样的情人节贺卡。
（笑声）
（笑声）
10:32
"My darling husband, you
are marginally less terrible
are marginally less terrible
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“我亲爱的丈夫，你没有
10:36
than the first 37 percent
of people I dated."
of people I dated."
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我约会历程中前 37% 的男士
那么糟糕。”
那么糟糕。”
10:39
It's actually more romantic
than I normally manage.
than I normally manage.
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这比一般的贺卡浪漫很多。
10:45
Okay, so this method doesn't give
you a 100 percent success rate,
you a 100 percent success rate,
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这个数学方法不能保证
100% 的成功率，
100% 的成功率，
10:50
but there's no other possible
strategy that can do any better.
strategy that can do any better.
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但也没有更好的策略了。
10:53
And actually, in the wild,
there are certain types
there are certain types
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事实上，在动物界，
某个特定种类的鱼
某个特定种类的鱼
遵循使用这样的策略。
10:56
of fish which follow and
employ this exact strategy.
employ this exact strategy.
206
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3713
10:59
So they reject every possible
suitor that turns up
suitor that turns up
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在交配期，它们拒绝
11:02
in the first 37 percent
of the mating season,
of the mating season,
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出现在前 37% 的每个求婚者，
11:05
and then they pick the next fish
that comes along after that window
that comes along after that window
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3531
接着它们选择 37% 后出现的下一个
11:08
that's, I don't know, bigger and burlier
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比所见过的鱼
11:11
than all of the fish
that they've seen before.
that they've seen before.
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体型更加庞大，更加结实的鱼。
11:13
I also think that subconsciously,
humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
humans, we do sort of do this anyway.
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我想作为人类
我们潜意识里也在做同样的选择。
我们潜意识里也在做同样的选择。
11:18
We give ourselves a little bit of time
to play the field,
to play the field,
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我们给自己更多时间寻找，
11:21
get a feel for the marketplace
or whatever when we're young.
or whatever when we're young.
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3502
在我们年轻的时候
感受婚恋市场。
感受婚恋市场。
11:25
And then we only start looking seriously
at potential marriage candidates
at potential marriage candidates
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我们只有在 20 岁年龄段的中后期
11:30
once we hit our mid-to-late 20s.
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1890
才会很真寻找潜在的结婚对象。
11:31
I think this is conclusive proof,
if ever it were needed,
if ever it were needed,
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我想这证明了，
即使不确定是否需要，
即使不确定是否需要，
11:34
that everybody's brains are prewired
to be just a little bit mathematical.
to be just a little bit mathematical.
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4506
每个人的大脑
都预配了点儿数学能力。
都预配了点儿数学能力。
11:39
Okay, so that was Top Tip #2.
219
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1861
好，上述就是最高秘诀 2 号。
11:41
Now, Top Tip #3: How to avoid divorce.
220
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3253
现在，最高秘诀 3 号：如何避免离婚。
11:44
Okay, so let's imagine then
that you picked your perfect partner
that you picked your perfect partner
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好的，让我们想象一下
你找到了你的完美对象
你找到了你的完美对象
11:47
and you're settling into
a lifelong relationship with them.
a lifelong relationship with them.
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你和他/她进入了一生的婚姻关系。
11:52
Now, I like to think that everybody
would ideally like to avoid divorce,
would ideally like to avoid divorce,
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我假设每个人都不希望离婚，
11:56
apart from, I don't know,
Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
Piers Morgan's wife, maybe?
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4366
当然，也许除了 Piers Morgan 的太太？
12:02
But it's a sad fact of modern life
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2290
可是，现代婚姻一个悲伤的事实
12:04
that 1 in 2 marriages in the
States ends in divorce,
States ends in divorce,
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3809
就是美国离婚率高达 50%，
12:08
with the rest of the world
not being far behind.
not being far behind.
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3301
世界其他国家也离这个数据不远。
12:11
Now, you can be forgiven, perhaps
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2099
当然，你可以认为
12:13
for thinking that the arguments
that precede a marital breakup
that precede a marital breakup
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婚姻破裂的原因
12:17
are not an ideal candidate
for mathematical investigation.
for mathematical investigation.
230
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不是数学运算理想的数据源。
12:20
For one thing, it's very hard to know
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1900
一方面来说，很难了解到
12:22
what you should be measuring
or what you should be quantifying.
or what you should be quantifying.
232
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你该去测量什么
或者是你该去量化什么。
或者是你该去量化什么。
12:25
But this didn't stop a psychologist,
John Gottman, who did exactly that.
John Gottman, who did exactly that.
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但这并没有阻止心理学家
John Gottman 做这样的研究。
John Gottman 做这样的研究。
12:32
Gottman observed hundreds of couples
having a conversation
having a conversation
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5195
Gottman 观察了数百对夫妇的对谈
12:37
and recorded, well,
everything you can think of.
everything you can think of.
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2462
尽可能录下来所有信息。
12:40
So he recorded what was said
in the conversation,
in the conversation,
236
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2487
记录了对话的内容，
12:42
he recorded their skin conductivity,
237
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皮肤的传导性，
12:44
he recorded their facial expressions,
238
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1920
面部表情，
12:46
their heart rates, their blood pressure,
239
754534
2340
心跳，血压，
12:48
basically everything apart from whether
or not the wife was actually always right,
or not the wife was actually always right,
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6450
基本上除了“太太永远是对的”
以外的所有东西，
以外的所有东西，
12:55
which incidentally she totally is.
241
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3024
当然，太太永远是对的。
12:58
But what Gottman and his team found
242
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2920
但是，Gottman 和他的团队发现
13:01
was that one of the
most important predictors
most important predictors
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2504
最能够准确预测
13:03
for whether or not a couple
is going to get divorced
is going to get divorced
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2150
这对夫妻是否未来会离婚的
13:05
was how positive or negative each
partner was being in the conversation.
partner was being in the conversation.
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是双方在对话过程中
积极还是消极。
积极还是消极。
13:11
Now, couples that were very low-risk
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2612
那些离婚风险很低的夫妻
13:13
scored a lot more positive points
on Gottman's scale than negative.
on Gottman's scale than negative.
247
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4227
在 Gottman 的测试中得到了
更多正面而不是负面的分数。
更多正面而不是负面的分数。
13:17
Whereas bad relationships,
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2140
相反的，在糟糕的关系中，
13:20
by which I mean, probably
going to get divorced,
going to get divorced,
249
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2792
我是指那些可能离婚的夫妻，
13:22
they found themselves getting
into a spiral of negativity.
into a spiral of negativity.
250
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4612
他们发现自己沉浸在消极的漩涡中。
13:27
Now just by using these very simple ideas,
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2353
就用这些非常简单的方法，
13:29
Gottman and his group were able to predict
252
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2502
Gottman 和他的团队能够准确预测
13:32
whether a given couple
was going to get divorced
was going to get divorced
253
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2843
一对夫妻是否会离婚,
13:35
with a 90 percent accuracy.
254
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2655
准确率高达 90%
13:37
But it wasn't until he teamed up
with a mathematician, James Murray,
with a mathematician, James Murray,
255
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3394
但是，直到他与
数学家 James Murray 联手，
数学家 James Murray 联手，
13:41
that they really started to understand
256
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2139
他们才真正找出
13:43
what causes these negativity spirals
and how they occur.
and how they occur.
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4310
那些消极漩涡是
如何产生，为什么产生的。
如何产生，为什么产生的。
13:47
And the results that they found
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1707
结果是他们发现
13:49
I think are just incredibly
impressively simple and interesting.
impressively simple and interesting.
259
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4359
我认为不可思议太令人惊叹
的简单而有趣。
的简单而有趣。
13:53
So these equations, they predict how
the wife or husband is going to respond
the wife or husband is going to respond
260
821667
4338
这些算式，他们用来预测
妻子或是丈夫是如何去回应
妻子或是丈夫是如何去回应
13:58
in their next turn of the conversation,
261
826005
1966
他们下一段对话，
13:59
how positive or negative
they're going to be.
they're going to be.
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他们的积极或消极程度是多少。
14:02
And these equations, they depend on
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这些算式，取决于
14:03
the mood of the person
when they're on their own,
when they're on their own,
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当他们独处时各自的情绪，
14:06
the mood of the person when
they're with their partner,
they're with their partner,
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当他们和伴侣在一起时候的情绪，
14:08
but most importantly, they depend on
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但最重要的是，
14:10
how much the husband and wife
influence one another.
influence one another.
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取决于丈夫和妻子相互间的影响。
14:13
Now, I think it's important
to point out at this stage,
to point out at this stage,
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在这个阶段我认为最重要的是，
14:16
that these exact equations
have also been shown
have also been shown
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这个一模一样的算式
14:19
to be perfectly able at describing
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同时也可以完美预测
14:22
what happens between two
countries in an arms race.
countries in an arms race.
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两个国家是否会开战。
14:26
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:30
So that -- an arguing couple
spiraling into negativity
spiraling into negativity
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因此一对沉浸于消极情绪
14:33
and teetering on the brink of divorce --
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在离婚边缘摇摆的夫妻--
14:35
is actually mathematically equivalent to
the beginning of a nuclear war.
the beginning of a nuclear war.
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实际在数学上等同于
即将开始一场核战争。
即将开始一场核战争。
14:40
(Laughter)
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（笑声）
14:42
But the really important term
in this equation
in this equation
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事实上，这个算式最重要的部分
14:45
is the influence that people
have on one another,
have on one another,
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是人们给对方带来的影响，
14:47
and in particular, something called
the negativity threshold.
the negativity threshold.
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尤其是消极阈值。
14:50
Now, the negativity threshold,
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消极阈值，
14:52
you can think of as
how annoying the husband can be
how annoying the husband can be
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你可以认为它指的是
丈夫讨厌到什么程度
丈夫讨厌到什么程度
14:57
before the wife starts to get
really pissed off, and vice versa.
really pissed off, and vice versa.
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就能惹到妻子真的暴怒，
或者是相反。
或者是相反。
15:01
Now, I always thought that good marriages
were about compromise and understanding
were about compromise and understanding
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我一直认为美好的婚姻
是基于妥协和理解
是基于妥协和理解
15:06
and allowing the person to
have the space to be themselves.
have the space to be themselves.
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并且给对方留足独处空间。
15:09
So I would have thought that perhaps
the most successful relationships
the most successful relationships
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我会想，最成功的关系是
15:12
were ones where there was
a really high negativity threshold.
a really high negativity threshold.
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当那里有非常高的消极阈值时
15:16
Where couples let things go
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夫妻共同选择不去理会这些问题。
15:17
and only brought things up if
they really were a big deal.
they really were a big deal.
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只有在非常严重的时候
才会严肃讨论。
才会严肃讨论。
15:20
But actually, the mathematics
and subsequent findings by the team
and subsequent findings by the team
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事实上，团队得出的
数学运算结果和后续研究成果显示
数学运算结果和后续研究成果显示
15:24
have shown the exact opposite is true.
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完全相反的结果。
15:27
The best couples,
or the most successful couples,
or the most successful couples,
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最完美的夫妻，
最成功的夫妻，
最成功的夫妻，
15:29
are the ones with a really low
negativity threshold.
negativity threshold.
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有着很低的消极阈值。
15:33
These are the couples that don't
let anything go unnoticed
let anything go unnoticed
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这些夫妻不会忽视矛盾
15:37
and allow each other
some room to complain.
some room to complain.
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给对方抱怨的空间。
15:40
These are the couples that are continually
trying to repair their own relationship,
trying to repair their own relationship,
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这些夫妻持续努力
修复他们的关系，
修复他们的关系，
15:45
that have a much more positive
outlook on their marriage.
outlook on their marriage.
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他们对自己的婚姻
有着非常积极的预期。
有着非常积极的预期。
15:48
Couples that don't let things go
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他们不会忽略矛盾
15:50
and couples that don't let trivial things
end up being a really big deal.
end up being a really big deal.
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他们不会让一件件琐碎的小事
堆积成为巨大的问题。
堆积成为巨大的问题。
15:56
Now of course, it takes bit more than
just a low negativity threshold
just a low negativity threshold
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当然，这不仅仅是
一个低消极阈值
一个低消极阈值
16:02
and not compromising to
have a successful relationship.
have a successful relationship.
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和对成功关系毫不妥协的态度。
16:06
But I think that it's quite interesting
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但我认为，很有趣的是
16:08
to know that there is really
mathematical evidence
mathematical evidence
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真的有数学证据
16:11
to say that you should never
let the sun go down on your anger.
let the sun go down on your anger.
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来证明你永远不该长时间
积攒愤怒，太阳要下山了。
（译者注：这句话出自圣经）
积攒愤怒，太阳要下山了。
（译者注：这句话出自圣经）
16:14
So those are my top three tips
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上述就是我的三条最高秘诀，
16:16
of how maths can help you
with love and relationships.
with love and relationships.
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有关数学如何让你有
更美好的爱情和关系。
更美好的爱情和关系。
16:19
But I hope
that aside from their use as tips,
that aside from their use as tips,
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我希望，除了作为爱情秘诀，
16:21
they also give you a little bit of insight
into the power of mathematics.
into the power of mathematics.
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它们也展示了数学的力量。
16:25
Because for me, equations
and symbols aren't just a thing.
and symbols aren't just a thing.
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对我来说，算式和符号
不仅仅是一样东西。
不仅仅是一样东西。
16:30
They're a voice that speaks out
about the incredible richness of nature
about the incredible richness of nature
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它们表达出
自然令人赞叹的丰富性
自然令人赞叹的丰富性
16:35
and the startling simplicity
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以及简化
16:36
in the patterns that twist and turn
and warp and evolve all around us,
and warp and evolve all around us,
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那些我们身边
扭曲，旋转，包围，进化的事物，
扭曲，旋转，包围，进化的事物，
16:41
from how the world works to how we behave.
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从世界是如何运作的，
到人类行为举止。
到人类行为举止。
16:44
So I hope that perhaps,
for just a couple of you,
for just a couple of you,
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我希望，也许你们中的一部分人
16:46
a little bit of insight into
the mathematics of love
the mathematics of love
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能够了解一些
爱的数学运算，
爱的数学运算，
16:48
can persuade you to have
a little bit more love for mathematics.
a little bit more love for mathematics.
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能够让你爱数学稍微多一点。
16:52
Thank you.
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谢谢。
16:53
(Applause)
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（鼓掌）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Hannah Fry - Complexity theoristHannah Fry researches the trends in our civilization and ways we can forecast its future.
Why you should listen
Hannah Fry completed her PhD in fluid dynamics in early 2011 with an emphasis on how liquid droplets move. Then, after working as an aerodynamicist in the motorsport industry, she began work on an interdisciplinary project in complexity sciences at University College London. Hannah’s current research focusses on discovering new connections between mathematically described systems and human interaction at the largest scale.
Fry is the author of the TED Book, The Mathematics of Love: Patterns, Proofs, and the Search for the Ultimate Equation.
Hannah Fry | Speaker | TED.com