TED2012
Paul Gilding: The Earth is full
Pol Gilding (Paul Gilding): Zemlja je puna
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Da li smo potrošili sve resurse? Da li smo popunili sav životni prostor na Zemlji? U predavanju koje je zastrašujuće, ali na neki čudan način uliva nadu, Pol Gilding nagoveštava da jesmo i da postoji mogućnost pogubnih posledica.
Paul Gilding - Writer
Paul Gilding is an independent writer, activist and adviser on a sustainable economy. Click through to watch the onstage debate that followed this talk. Full bio
Paul Gilding is an independent writer, activist and adviser on a sustainable economy. Click through to watch the onstage debate that followed this talk. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let me begin with four words
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Počeo bih sa tri reči,
00:18
that will provide the context for this week,
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koje će obeležiti ovu nedelju,
00:20
four words that will come to define
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tri reči koje će definisati
00:22
this century.
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ovaj vek.
00:24
Here they are:
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A to su:
00:26
The Earth is full.
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Zemlja je puna.
00:29
It's full of us, it's full of our stuff,
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Puna je nas, puna je naših stvari,
00:32
full of our waste, full of our demands.
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puna našeg otpada, puna naših prohteva.
00:35
Yes, we are a brilliant and creative species,
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Da, mi smo briljantna i kreativna vrsta.
00:38
but we've created a little too much stuff --
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ali smo stvorili previše stvari,
00:42
so much that our economy is now bigger
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toliko da je naša ekonomija sada premašila
00:45
than its host, our planet.
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svog domaćina, našu planetu.
00:48
This is not a philosophical statement,
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Ovo nije filozofska misao,
00:50
this is just science
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ovo je prosto nauka
00:52
based in physics,
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zasnovana na fizici,
00:54
chemistry and biology.
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hemiji i biologiji.
00:57
There are many science-based analyses of this,
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Postoji mnogo naučnih analiza
00:59
but they all draw the same conclusion --
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i sve one navode na isti zaključak -
01:02
that we're living beyond our means.
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da živimo izvan naših mogućnosti.
01:05
The eminent scientists of the Global Footprint Network, for example,
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Istaknuti naučnici mreže "Svetksi otisak", na primer,
01:08
calculate that we need about 1.5 Earths
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su izračunali da nam treba oko 1,5 Zemlja
01:11
to sustain this economy.
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da izdrži ovu ekonomiju.
01:14
In other words,
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Drugim rečima,
01:16
to keep operating at our current level,
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da bismo nastavili da funckionišemo na sadašnjem nivou,
01:18
we need 50 percent more Earth than we've got.
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treba nam 50 posto više Zemlje nego što imamo.
01:23
In financial terms,
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U finansijskom smislu,
01:25
this would be like always spending 50 percent more than you earn,
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to bi značilo da uvek trošite 50 posto više nego što zaradite,
01:29
going further into debt every year.
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zadužujući se sve više svake godine.
01:31
But of course, you can't borrow natural resources,
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Ali naravno, ne možete pozajmiti prirodne resurse,
01:34
so we're burning through our capital,
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pa zato iscrpljujemo svoj kapital
01:37
or stealing from the future.
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ili krademo od budućnosti.
01:40
So when I say full, I mean really full --
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Kada kažem puna, mislim stvarno puna -
01:43
well past any margin for error,
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daleko izvan granica greške,
01:45
well past any dispute
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daleko od bilo koje rasprave
01:47
about methodology.
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o metodologiji.
01:51
What this means is our economy is unsustainable.
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Ovo znači da je naša ekonomija neodrživa.
01:54
I'm not saying it's not nice or pleasant
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Ne kažem da nije fina ili prijatna
01:57
or that it's bad for polar bears or forests,
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niti da je loša za polarne medvede ili šume,
01:59
though it certainly is.
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mada to svakako jeste.
02:01
What I'm saying
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Ono što hoću da kažem
02:03
is our approach is simply unsustainable.
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je da je naš pristup jednostavno neodrživ.
02:05
In other words, thanks to those pesky laws of physics,
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Drugim rečima, zahvaljujući tim iritantnim zakonima fizike,
02:08
when things aren't sustainable, they stop.
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kad nešto nije održivo, ono nestane.
02:11
But that's not possible, you might think.
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Pomislili biste da je to nemoguće.
02:13
We can't stop economic growth.
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Ne možemo zaustaviti ekonomski razvoj.
02:15
Because that's what will stop: economic growth.
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Jer to je ono što će se zaustaviti: ekonomski razvoj.
02:18
It will stop because of the end of trade resources.
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Staće zbog nestanka trgovinskih resursa.
02:21
It will stop because of the growing demand of us
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Staće zbog naše sve veće potražnje
02:26
on all the resources, all the capacity,
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za svim resursima, za celokupnim kapacitetom,
02:28
all the systems of the Earth,
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za svim sistemima Zemlje
02:30
which is now having economic damage.
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koji se sad nose sa ekonomskom štetom.
02:35
When we think about economic growth stopping,
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Kada razmišljamo o prestanku ekonomskog razvoja,
02:37
we go, "That's not possible,"
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pomislimo: "To nije moguće",
02:40
because economic growth is so essential to our society
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zato što je ekonomski razvoj toliko važan za naše društvo
02:43
that is is rarely questioned.
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da se retko dovodi u pitanje.
02:46
Although growth has certainly delivered many benefits,
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Mada je razvoj svakako doneo mnogo dobrog,
02:49
it is an idea so essential
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toliko je u osnovi svega,
02:51
that we tend not to understand
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da mi prosto ne shvatamo
02:53
the possibility of it not being around.
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mogućnost da nestane.
02:55
Even though it has delivered many benefits,
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Iako je doneo mnogo toga dobrog,
02:57
it is based on a crazy idea --
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zasnovan je na ludoj zamisli -
03:00
the crazy idea being
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zamisli
03:02
that we can have infinite growth
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da možemo imati beskonačni razvoj
03:04
on a finite planet.
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na planeti koja nije beskonačna.
03:06
And I'm here to tell you the emperor has no clothes.
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Savetujem vam da preispitate svoja uverenja.
03:09
That the crazy idea is just that,
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Ta luda ideja je upravo to,
03:11
it is crazy,
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luda je,
03:13
and with the Earth full, it's game over.
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i pošto je Zemlja puna, to označava kraj igre.
03:15
Come on, you're thinking.
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Ma daj, mislite.
03:17
That's not possible.
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To nije moguće.
03:19
Technology is amazing. People are innovative.
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Tehnologija je neverovatna. Ljudi su inovativni.
03:22
There are so many ways we can improve the way we do things.
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Postoji toliko načina da poboljšamo način na koji delamo.
03:24
We can surely sort this out.
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Sigurno možemo pronaći rešenje.
03:26
That's all true.
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To je tačno.
03:28
Well, it's mostly true.
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Pa, uglavnom je tačno.
03:30
We are certainly amazing,
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Svakako smo neverovatni,
03:32
and we regularly solve complex problems
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i redovno rešavamo složene probleme
03:34
with amazing creativity.
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neverovatnom kreativnošću.
03:36
So if our problem
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Tako da ako bi naš problem
03:38
was to get the human economy down
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bio da smanjimo ljudsku ekonomiju
03:40
from 150 percent to 100 percent of the Earth's capacity,
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sa 150 posto na 100 posto kapaciteta Zemlje,
03:43
we could do that.
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to bismo rešili.
03:45
The problem is we're just warming up
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Problem je što mi tek zagrevamo
03:47
this growth engine.
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pogon ovog rasta.
03:49
We plan to take this highly-stressed economy
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Nameravamo da ovu izuzetno razvijenu ekonomiju
03:52
and make it twice as big
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učinimo duplo većom,
03:55
and then make it four times as big --
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a potom četiri puta većom,
03:57
not in some distant future,
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ne u nekoj dalekoj budućnosti,
04:00
but in less than 40 years,
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već za manje od 40 godina,
04:02
in the life time of most of you.
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što će većina vas doživeti.
04:05
China plans to be there in just 20 years.
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Kina planira da to ostvari ovo za samo 20 godina.
04:09
The only problem with this plan
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Jedini problem u vezi ovog plana
04:12
is that it's not possible.
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je što nije izvodljiv.
04:16
In response, some people argue,
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Kao odgovor na ovo, neki ljudi tvrde,
04:18
but we need growth, we need it to solve poverty.
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da nam je neophodan razvoj, moramo rešiti problem siromaštva.
04:20
We need it to develop technology.
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Moramo da razvijemo tehnologiju.
04:22
We need it to keep social stability.
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Moramo da održimo stabilnost društva.
04:24
I find this argument fascinating,
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Za mene je ovaj argument fascinantan,
04:26
as though we can kind of bend the rules of physics
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jer zvuči kao da možemo da izmenimo zakone fizike
04:29
to suit our needs.
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da odgovaraju našim potrebama.
04:34
It's like the Earth doesn't care what we need.
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Zemlju ne zanima šta je nama potrebno.
04:37
Mother nature doesn't negotiate;
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Majka priroda ne pregovara;
04:39
she just sets rules and describes consequences.
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ona samo određuje pravila i opisuje posledice.
04:42
And these are not esoteric limits.
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Sve ovo nisu ezoterične granice.
04:44
This is about food and water, soil and climate,
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Govorimo o hrani i vodi, zemljištu i klimi,
04:46
the basic practical and economic foundations
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bazičnim praktičnim i ekonomskim osnovama
04:49
of our lives.
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naših života.
04:53
So the idea that we can smoothly transition
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Tako da zamisao da možemo lako da pređemo
04:56
to a highly-efficient,
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u izuzetno efikasnu
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solar-powered, knowledge-based economy
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ekonomiju koja se napaja sunčevom energijom, koja je zasnovana na znanju,
05:00
transformed by science and technology
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koja je oblikovana naukom i tehnologijom,
05:02
so that nine billion people
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tako da devet milijardi ljudi
05:04
can live in 2050
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može da živi 2050.
05:07
a life of abundance and digital downloads
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u izobilju, i obrazuje se na Internetu
05:09
is a delusion.
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je zabluda.
05:12
It's not that it's not possible to feed, clothe and house us all
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Nije nemoguće nahraniti, obući i skućiti sve nas
05:15
and have us live decent lives.
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i obezbediti pristojan život svima.
05:18
It certainly is.
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To je svakako moguće.
05:20
But the idea that we can gently grow there
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Ali zamisao da možemo olako da se množimo,
05:22
with a few minor hiccups
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uz nekoliko manjih problema
05:24
is just wrong,
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je jednostavno pogrešna,
05:26
and it's dangerously wrong,
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i to opasno pogrešna,
05:28
because it means we're not getting ready
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jer ona znači da se ne pripremamo
05:30
for what's really going to happen.
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za ono što će se zaista dogoditi.
05:32
See what happens when you operate a system
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Vidite, ono sto se dešava kada opteretite sistem
05:35
past its limits
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van njegovih mogućnosti
05:37
and then keep on going
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i zatim nastavite to
05:39
at an ever-accelerating rate
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sve većim tempom
05:42
is that the system stops working and breaks down.
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je da sistem prestane da radi i pokvari se.
05:46
And that's what will happen to us.
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To je ono što će se nama dogoditi.
05:53
Many of you will be thinking,
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Mnogi od vas će pomisliti,
05:55
but surely we can still stop this.
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da sigurno još uvek možemo da zaustavimo ovo.
05:57
If it's that bad, we'll react.
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Ako je toliko loše, odreagovaćemo.
06:00
Let's just think through that idea.
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Hajde da samo razmotrimo tu zamisao.
06:02
Now we've had
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Već 50 godina
06:04
50 years of warnings.
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stižu nam upozorenja.
06:06
We've had science proving
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Nauka je dokazivala
06:09
the urgency of change.
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da su promene urgentne.
06:11
We've had economic analysis pointing out
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Ekonomske procene su ukazivale na to
06:13
that, not only can we afford it,
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da ne samo da možemo to da priuštimo,
06:15
it's cheaper to act early.
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nego je i jeftinije da odreagujemo ranije.
06:17
And yet, the reality is
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A ipak u realnosti
06:19
we've done pretty much nothing to change course.
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nismo uradili skoro ništa da promenimo situaciju.
06:22
We're not even slowing down.
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Mi čak ni ne usporavamo.
06:25
Last year on climate, for example,
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Na primer, prošle godine smo bili svedoci najvećeg
06:27
we had the highest global emissions ever.
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globalnog zagađenja usled našeg uticaja na klimu.
06:29
The story on food, on water, on soil, on climate
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Problem hrane, vode, zemljišta i klime
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is all much the same.
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je praktično isti.
06:35
I actually don't say this in despair.
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Ja zapravo ovo ne govorim u očaju.
06:37
I've done my grieving about the loss.
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Prestao sam sa žaljenjem za izgubljenim.
06:39
I accept where we are.
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Prihvatam ovo gde smo sada.
06:41
It is sad,
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Tužno je,
06:43
but it is what it is.
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ali tako je, kako je.
06:45
But it is also time
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Ali je takođe vreme
06:47
that we ended our denial
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da okončamo poricanje
06:49
and recognized
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i shvatimo
06:51
that we're not acting, we're not close to acting
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da ne delamo, da nismo ni blizu delanja
06:54
and we're not going to act
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i nećemo to učiniti
06:56
until this crisis hits the economy.
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dok kriza ne pogodi ekonomiju.
06:58
And that's why the end of growth
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Zato je kraj razvoja
07:00
is the central issue
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najvažnije pitanje
07:02
and the event that we need to get ready for.
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i događaj za koji treba da se pripremimo.
07:06
So when does this transition begin?
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Dakle, kada će početi ova promena?
07:08
When does this breakdown begin?
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Kada će ovaj slom početi?
07:10
In my view, it is well underway.
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Mislim da je već počelo.
07:13
I know most people don't see it that way.
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Znam da većina ljudi to ne vidi tako.
07:15
We tend to look at the world,
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Skloni smo da posmatramo svet,
07:17
not as the integrated system that it is,
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ne kao integrisani sitem što on jeste,
07:19
but as a series of individual issues.
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već kao niz pojedinačnih problema.
07:21
We see the Occupy protests,
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Vidimo proteste pokreta "Occupy",
07:24
we see spiraling debt crises,
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vidimo rastuću krizu zbog dugova,
07:26
we see growing inequality,
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vidimo sve veće nejednakosti,
07:28
we see money's influence on politics,
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vidimo uticaj novca na politiku,
07:30
we see resource constraint, food and oil prices.
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vidimo ograničenje resursa, cene hrane i nafte.
07:33
But we see, mistakenly, each of these issues
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Ali mi posmatramo svaki od ovih problema
07:35
as individual problems to be solved.
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kao izdvojen fenomen koji treba rešiti.
07:39
In fact, it's the system
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U stvari, sistem
07:41
in the painful process of breaking down --
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prolazi kroz bolni proces slamanja,
07:44
our system, of debt-fueled economic growth,
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naš sistem, ispunjen dugovima eknomoskog razvoja,
07:47
of ineffective democracy,
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neefektivne demokratije,
07:49
of overloading planet Earth,
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preopterećivanja planete Zemlje,
07:51
is eating itself alive.
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sam sebe izjeda.
07:56
I could give you countless studies
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Mogao bih da vam navedem brojne
07:57
and evidence to prove this,
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studije i dokaze koji potvrđuju ovo,
08:00
but I won't because, if you want to see it,
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ali neću jer, ako želite to da vidite,
08:02
that evidence is all around you.
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dokazi su svuda oko vas.
08:05
I want to talk to you about fear.
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Želim da razgovaram sa vama o strahu.
08:08
I want to do so because, in my view,
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Želim to jer mi se čini da je
08:11
the most important issue we face
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najvažniji fenomen sa kojim se suočavamo
08:16
is how we respond
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baš kako odgovaramo
08:18
to this question.
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na ovo pitanje.
08:20
The crisis is now inevitable.
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Kriza je sada neizbežna.
08:23
This issue is, how will we react?
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Pitanje je, kako ćemo odreagovati?
08:27
Of course, we can't know what will happen.
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Naravno, ne možemo znati šta će se dogoditi.
08:30
The future is inherently uncertain.
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Budućnost je sama po sebi neizvesna.
08:32
But let's just think through what the science is telling us
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Ali hajde da samo razmislimo o tome šta nam nauka govori
08:35
is likely to happen.
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da će se verovatno desiti.
08:38
Imagine our economy
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Zamislite našu ekonomiju
08:41
when the carbon bubble bursts,
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kada balon ugljenika pukne,
08:43
when the financial markets recognize
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kada finansijska tržišta to shvate,
08:45
that, to have any hope
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zamislite bilo kakvu nadu
08:47
of preventing the climate spiraling out of control,
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da ćemo sprečiti otimanje klimatskih promena našoj kontroli,
08:50
the oil and coal industries are finished.
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da su idustrije nafte i uglja propale.
08:54
Imagine China, India and Pakistan going to war
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Zamislite Kinu, Indiju i Pakistan kako idu u rat
08:57
as climate impacts
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jer klimatske promene
08:59
generate conflict over food and water.
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rezultiraju u sukobima za hranu i piće.
09:03
Imagine the Middle East without oil income,
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Zamislite Bliski istok bez prihoda od nafte,
09:06
but with collapsing governments.
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već sa vladama koje se ruše.
09:08
Imagine our highly-tuned, just-in-time food industry
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Zamislite našu savršeno funkcionalnu idustriju hrane i blagovremene isporuke,
09:12
and our highly-stressed agricultural system failing
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i naš preopterećeni poljoprivredni sistem kako otkazuju,
09:15
and supermarket shelves emptying.
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i zamislite prazne police u supermarketu.
09:19
Imagine 30 percent unemployment in America
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Zamislite nezaposlenost od 30 posto u Americi,
09:22
as the global economy is gripped
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a globalnu ekonomiju u grču
09:24
by fear and uncertainty.
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zbog straha i neizvesnosti.
09:26
Now imagine what that means for you,
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Sad zamislite šta to znači za vas,
09:28
your family, your friends,
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vašu porodicu, vaše prijatelje,
09:31
your personal financial security.
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vašu ličnu finansijsku sigurnost.
09:33
Imagine what it means
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Zamislite šta znači
09:35
for your personal security
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za vašu ličnu sigurnost
09:37
as a heavily armed civilian population
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to što teško naoružana građanska populacija
09:39
gets angrier and angrier
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postaje sve više frustrirana
09:41
about why this was allowed to happen.
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zbog toga zašto je dozvoljeno da se ovo desi.
09:45
Imagine what you'll tell your children
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Zamislite šta ćete reći vašoj deci
09:47
when they ask you,
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kada vas pitaju,
09:49
"So, in 2012, Mom and Dad,
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"Pa, mama i tata,
09:51
what was it like
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kako je to bilo 2012.
09:53
when you'd had the hottest decade on record
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kada ste se tri decenije za redom suočavali
09:56
for the third decade in a row,
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sa najtoplijom decenijom ikada zabeleženom,
09:58
when every scientific body in the world was saying
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kada je svako naučno telo na svetu upozoravalo
10:01
you've got a major problem,
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da imate veliki problem,
10:04
when the oceans were acidifying,
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kada su okeani postajali kiseli,
10:06
when oil and food prices were spiking,
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kada su cene ulja i hrane rasle,
10:08
when they were rioting in the streets of London
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kada su pravili nerede po ulicama Londona
10:11
and occupying Wall Street?
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i osvajali Vol Strit?
10:13
When the system was so clearly breaking down, Mom and Dad,
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Kada se sistem tako očigledno urušavao, mama i tata,
10:16
what did you do, what were you thinking?"
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šta ste vi uradili, šta ste mislili?"
10:21
So how do you feel
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Pa kako se osećate
10:24
when the lights go out
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sa tom tamom na slici
10:26
on the global economy in your mind,
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globalne ekonomije u vašem umu,
10:30
when your assumptions about the future
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kada vaše pretpostavke o budućnosti
10:33
fade away
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izblede
10:35
and something very different emerges?
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i nešto potpuno drugačije izađe na površinu?
10:38
Just take a moment
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Samo zastanite na trenutak,
10:40
and take a breath
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udahnite,
10:42
and think, what do you feel
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i razmislite, šta osećate
10:45
at this point?
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u ovom momentu?
10:51
Perhaps denial.
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Možda poricanje.
10:54
Perhaps anger.
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Možda bes.
10:57
Maybe fear.
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Možda strah.
11:02
Of course, we can't know what's going to happen
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Naravno, ne možemo znati šta će se dogoditi
11:05
and we have to live with uncertainty.
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i moramo da živimo sa neizvesnošću.
11:08
But when we think about the kind of possibilities I paint,
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Ali kada razmislimo o mogućnostima koje ja zamišljam,
11:12
we should feel a bit of fear.
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trebalo bi malo da se uplašimo.
11:16
We are in danger, all of us,
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U opasnosti smo svi mi,
11:19
and we've evolved to respond to danger with fear
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a naučili smo da na opasnost odreagujemo strahom
11:22
to motivate a powerful response,
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da bismo izazvali snažnu reakciju,
11:26
to help us bravely face a threat.
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koja će nam pomoći da se hrabro suočimo sa pretnjom.
11:29
But this time it's not a tiger at the cave mouth.
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Ali ovog puta to nije tigar na ulasku u pećinu.
11:32
You can't see the danger at your door.
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Ne možete videti opasnost ispred vaših vrata.
11:35
But if you look,
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Ali ako pogledate,
11:37
you can see it at the door of your civilization.
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možete je videti pred vratima vaše civilizacije.
11:41
That's why we need to feel our response now while the lights are still on,
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Zato bi trebalo da shvatimo našu odgovornost sada dok smo još pribrani,
11:44
because if we wait until the crisis takes hold,
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jer ako budemo čeklali da kriza uzme maha,
11:47
we may panic and hide.
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možda ćemo se uspaničiti i sakriti.
11:49
If we feel it now and think it through,
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Ako je shvatimo sada i dobro razmislimo,
11:51
we will realize we have nothing to fear
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shvatićemo da nemamo čega da se plašimo
11:53
but fear itself.
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osim samog straha.
11:58
Yes, things will get ugly, and it will happen soon --
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Da, biće gadno, i uskoro će se desiti -
12:01
certainly in our lifetime --
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svakako u našem životnom veku -
12:03
but we are more than capable
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ali mi smo i više nego sposobni
12:05
of getting through everything that's coming.
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da prebrodimo sve što dolazi.
12:08
You see, those people that have faith
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Vidite, oni ljudi koji veruju
12:11
that humans can solve any problem,
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da ljudi mogu da reše svaki problem,
12:14
that technology is limitless, that markets can be a force for good,
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da tehnologija nema ograničenja, da tržišta mogu biti dobre sile,
12:17
are in fact right.
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su zapravo u pravu.
12:19
The only thing they're missing
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Jedino što ne vide
12:21
is that it takes a good crisis to get us going.
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jeste to da je potrebna velika kriza da nas pokrene.
12:24
When we feel fear and we fear loss
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Kada osetimo strah i kad se uplašimo gubitka
12:27
we are capable of quite extraordinary things.
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sposobni smo za prilično neverovatne stvari.
12:30
Think about war.
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Razmislite o ratovima.
12:33
After the bombing of Pearl Harbor, it just took four days
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Nakon bombardovanja Perl Harbura, trebalo je samo četiri dana
12:36
for the government to ban the production of civilian cars
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da vlada zabrani proizvodnju civilnih automobila
12:38
and to redirect the auto industry,
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i da preusmeri auto-industriju,
12:40
and from there to rationing of food and energy.
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a potom reguliše potrošnju hrane i energije.
12:44
Think about how a company responds to a bankruptcy threat
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Razmislite o tome kako neka kompanija reaguje kad joj preti bankrotiranje
12:47
and how a change that seemed impossible just gets done.
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i kako se promena koja deluje nemoguće jednostavno izvrši.
12:50
Think about how an individual responds
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Razmislite o tome kako neki pojedinac reaguje
12:52
to a diagnosis of a life-threatening illness
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na dijagnozu bolesti koja mu može ugroziti život
12:55
and how lifestyle changes
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i kako promene načina života
12:57
that previously were just too difficult
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koje su ranije bile preteške
13:00
suddenly become relatively easy.
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odjednom postaju relativno lake.
13:04
We are smart, in fact, we really are quite amazing,
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Mi smo pametni, u stvari, prilično smo neverovatni,
13:07
but we do love a good crisis.
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ali zaista volimo velike krize.
13:09
And the good news, this one's a monster.
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Dobra vest je da je ova monstruozna.
13:11
(Laughter)
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(Smeh)
13:13
Sure, if we get it wrong,
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Naravno, ako pogrešimo,
13:15
we could face the end of this civilization,
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možemo doživeti kraj ove civilizacije,
13:17
but if we get it right,
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ali ako ispravno postupimo,
13:19
it could be the beginning of civilization instead.
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umesto toga ovo može biti početak civilizacije.
13:22
And how cool would it be
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Kako bi sjajno bilo
13:24
to tell your grandchildren that you were part of that?
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reći svojim unucima da ste bili deo toga?
13:29
There's certainly no technical or economic barrier in the way.
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Svakako ne postoji nikakva tehnička niti ekonomska prepreka na putu.
13:34
Scientists like James Hansen tell us
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Naučnici poput Džejmsa Hansena nam govore
13:36
we may need to eliminate net CO2 emissions from the economy
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da bi možda trebalo izbaciti emitovanje ugljen-dioksida iz ekonomije
13:39
in just a few decades.
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u roku od samo nekoliko decenija.
13:41
I wanted to know what that would take,
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Želeo sam da znam šta bi bilo potrebno,
13:43
so I worked with professor Jorgen Randers from Norway
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pa sam radio sa profesorom Jorgenom Rendersom iz Norveške
13:46
to find the answer.
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da bih došao do odgovora.
13:48
We developed a plan called "The One Degree War Plan" --
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Razvili smo plan koji smo nazvali "Ratni plan prvog stepena" -
13:52
so named because of the level of mobilization and focus required.
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tako nazvan zbog nivoa mobilizacije i potrebnog fokusa.
13:56
To my surprise,
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Na moje iznenađenje,
13:58
eliminating net CO2 emissions from the economy in just 20 years
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uklanjanje emitovanja ugljen-dioksida iz ekonomije u roku od samo 20 godina
14:01
is actually pretty easy and pretty cheap,
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ja zapravo prilično jednostavno i prilično jeftino,
14:04
not very cheap,
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ne izuzetno jeftino,
14:06
but certainly less than the cost of a collapsing civilization.
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ali svakako manje nego što bi koštao propast civilizacije.
14:09
We didn't calculate that precisely,
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Nismo to precizno izračunali,
14:11
but we understand that's very expensive.
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ali shvatamo da je to vrlo skupo.
14:14
You can read the details,
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Možete pročitati o detaljima,
14:16
but in summary, we can transform our economy.
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ali ukratko, možemo promeniti našu ekonomiju.
14:18
We can do it with proven technology.
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Možemo to da uradimo koristeći proverenu tehnologiju.
14:20
We can do it at an affordable cost.
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Možemo to da uradimo po pristupačnoj ceni.
14:22
We can do it with existing political structures.
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Možemo to da uradimo pomoću postojećih političkih struktura.
14:24
The only thing we need to change
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Jedino treba da promenimo
14:26
is how we think and how we feel.
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kako razmišljamo i kako se osećamo.
14:29
And this is where you come in.
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A tu vi stupate na scenu.
14:32
When we think about the future I paint,
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Kada razmišljamo o budućnosti koju ja zamišljam,
14:34
of course we should feel a bit of fear.
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naravno da treba da osećamo neku dozu straha.
14:36
But fear can be paralyzing or motivating.
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Ali strah može da paralizuje ili da motiviše.
14:39
We need to accept the fear and then we need to act.
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Treba da prihvatimo strah i potom treba da delamo.
14:42
We need to act
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Treba da delamo
14:44
like the future depends on it.
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kao da budućnost zavisi od toga.
14:46
We need to act like we only have one planet.
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Moramo da delamo kao da imamo samo jednu planetu.
14:50
We can do this.
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Mi možemo ovo.
14:52
I know the free market fundamentalists will tell you
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Znam da će vam fundamentalisti slobodnog tržišta reći
14:55
that more growth, more stuff and nine billion people going shopping
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da su veći razvoj, više stvari i devet milijardi ljudi koji idu u kupovinu
14:58
is the best we can do.
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je najbolje što možemo da uradimo.
15:00
They're wrong.
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Oni greše.
15:02
We can be more,
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Mi možemo više,
15:04
we can be much more.
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možemo mnogo više.
15:06
We have achieved remarkable things
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Postigli smo neverovatne stvari
15:09
since working out how to grow food some 10,000 years ago.
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od kako smo shvatili kako da gajimo hranu pre nekih 10.000 godina.
15:11
We've built a powerful foundation
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Sagradili smo moćnu bazu
15:14
of science, knowledge and technology --
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nauke, znanja i tehnologije -
15:16
more than enough to build a society
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više nego dovoljnu da izgradi društvo
15:18
where nine billion people
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gde će devet milijardi ljudi
15:20
can lead decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.
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moći da živi pristojnim, smislenim i zadovoljavajućim životima.
15:22
The Earth can support that
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Zemlja to može da izdrži
15:24
if we choose the right path.
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ako odaberemo pravi put.
15:28
We can choose this moment of crisis
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Možemo da izaberemo ovaj trenutak krize
15:30
to ask and answer the big questions of society's evolution --
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da postavimo i odgovorimo na velika pitanja razvoja društva -
15:33
like, what do we want to be when we grow up,
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kao što su, šta želimo da budemo kad porastemo,
15:36
when we move past this bumbling adolescence
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kada prerastemo ovu zbunjujuću adolescenciju
15:39
where we think there are no limits
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gde mislimo da granice ne postoje
15:41
and suffer delusions of immortality?
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i patimo od zabluda o besmrtnosti?
15:44
Well it's time to grow up,
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E pa vreme je da odrastemo,
15:46
to be wiser, to be calmer,
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da budemo mudriji, smireniji,
15:48
to be more considered.
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da budemo uviđajniji.
15:50
Like generations before us,
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Poput generacija pre nas,
15:52
we'll be growing up in war --
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odrastaćemo u ratu -
15:54
not a war between civilizations,
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ne ratu civilizacija,
15:56
but a war for civilization,
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već ratu za civilizaciju,
15:58
for the extraordinary opportunity
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za neverovatnu šansu
16:00
to build a society
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da izgradimo
16:02
which is stronger and happier
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jače i srećnije društvo
16:04
and plans on staying around
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koje namerava da se zadrži ovde
16:06
into middle age.
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do svog srednjeg doba.
16:09
We can choose life over fear.
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Možemo da izaberemo život umesto straha.
16:11
We can do what we need to do,
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Možemo da uradimo ono što moramo,
16:15
but it will take every entrepreneur,
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ali za to će biti potreban svaki preduzetnik,
16:17
every artist,
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svaki umetnik,
16:19
every scientist, every communicator,
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svaki naučnik, svaki govornik,
16:21
every mother, every father, every child,
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svaka majka, svaki otac, svako dete,
16:24
every one of us.
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svako od nas.
16:27
This could be our finest hour.
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Ovo može biti naš uzvišeni čas.
16:30
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
16:32
(Applause)
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(Aplauz)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Gilding - WriterPaul Gilding is an independent writer, activist and adviser on a sustainable economy. Click through to watch the onstage debate that followed this talk.
Why you should listen
Watch the debate with Peter Diamandis that followed this talk >>
Paul Gilding has spent 35 years trying to change the world. He’s served in the Australian military, chased nuclear armed aircraft carriers in small inflatable boats, plugged up industrial waste discharge pipes, been global CEO of Greenpeace, taught at Cambridge University, started two successful businesses and advised the CEOs of some the world’s largest companies.
Despite his clear lack of progress, the unstoppable and flexible optimist is now a writer and advocate, travelling the world with his book The Great Disruption alerting people to the global economic and ecological crisis unfolding around us, as the world economy reaches and passes the limits to growth. He is confident we can get through what’s coming and says rather than the end of civilization, this could be the beginning! He argues we will rise to the occasion and see change at a scale and speed incomprehensible today, but need to urgently prepare for The Great Disruption and “the end of shopping”, as we reinvent the global economy and our model of social progress.
Read his reaction to attending TED2012: "Will the techno-optimists save the world?"
Paul Gilding | Speaker | TED.com