TED2012
Paul Gilding: The Earth is full
Paul Gilding: Zemlja je puna
Filmed:
Readability: 4.1
1,431,789 views
Jesmo li potrošili sve prirodne izvore? Jesmo li ispunili sav životni prostor na Zemlji? Paul Gilding kaže da jesmo i da su moguće razorne posljedice. Sve to u govoru koji nas podjednako zastrašuje i, začudo, daje nam nadu.
Paul Gilding - Writer
Paul Gilding is an independent writer, activist and adviser on a sustainable economy. Click through to watch the onstage debate that followed this talk. Full bio
Paul Gilding is an independent writer, activist and adviser on a sustainable economy. Click through to watch the onstage debate that followed this talk. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
Let me begin with four words
0
0
3000
Počeo bih s tri riječi
00:18
that will provide the context for this week,
1
3000
2000
koje će dati kontekst cijelome ovom tjednu,
00:20
four words that will come to define
2
5000
2000
tri riječi koje će definirati
00:22
this century.
3
7000
2000
ovo stoljeće.
00:24
Here they are:
4
9000
2000
Evo ih:
00:26
The Earth is full.
5
11000
3000
Zemlja je puna.
00:29
It's full of us, it's full of our stuff,
6
14000
3000
Puna je nas, puna je naših stvari,
00:32
full of our waste, full of our demands.
7
17000
3000
puna je otpada, puna naših zahtjeva.
00:35
Yes, we are a brilliant and creative species,
8
20000
3000
Da, briljantna smo i kreativna vrsta,
00:38
but we've created a little too much stuff --
9
23000
4000
ali proizveli smo malo previše stvari --
00:42
so much that our economy is now bigger
10
27000
3000
toliko da je naše gospodarstvo sada veće
00:45
than its host, our planet.
11
30000
3000
od svojeg domaćina, ovog planeta.
00:48
This is not a philosophical statement,
12
33000
2000
Ovo nije filozofska izjava,
00:50
this is just science
13
35000
2000
radi se samo o znanosti
00:52
based in physics,
14
37000
2000
utemeljenoj na fizici,
00:54
chemistry and biology.
15
39000
3000
kemiji i biologiji.
00:57
There are many science-based analyses of this,
16
42000
2000
Postoji mnogo znanstvenih analiza ovog problema,
00:59
but they all draw the same conclusion --
17
44000
3000
a sve su došle do istoga zaključka:
01:02
that we're living beyond our means.
18
47000
3000
živimo iznad svojih mogućnosti.
01:05
The eminent scientists of the Global Footprint Network, for example,
19
50000
3000
Ugledni znanstvenici iz organizacije
Global Footprint Network, primjerice,
Global Footprint Network, primjerice,
01:08
calculate that we need about 1.5 Earths
20
53000
3000
izračunali su da bi nam trebala oko 1,5 Zemlja
01:11
to sustain this economy.
21
56000
3000
da bi se ovo gospodarstvo održalo.
01:14
In other words,
22
59000
2000
Drugim riječima,
01:16
to keep operating at our current level,
23
61000
2000
da bismo nastavili funkcionirati ovim ritmom,
01:18
we need 50 percent more Earth than we've got.
24
63000
3000
trebalo bi nam 50% više Zemlje nego što imamo.
01:23
In financial terms,
25
68000
2000
Financijskim rječnikom,
01:25
this would be like always spending 50 percent more than you earn,
26
70000
4000
to je kao da uvijek potrošite 50% više nego zaradite
01:29
going further into debt every year.
27
74000
2000
i svake godine imate sve veći dug.
01:31
But of course, you can't borrow natural resources,
28
76000
3000
No, prirodne resurse, naravno, ne možete posuditi,
01:34
so we're burning through our capital,
29
79000
3000
tako da trošimo kapital,
01:37
or stealing from the future.
30
82000
3000
odnosno krademo od budućnosti.
01:40
So when I say full, I mean really full --
31
85000
3000
Zato kad kažem puna, mislim zaista puna --
01:43
well past any margin for error,
32
88000
2000
preko svih granica dozvoljene pogreške,
01:45
well past any dispute
33
90000
2000
nema više koristi
01:47
about methodology.
34
92000
3000
ni osporavati metodologiju.
01:51
What this means is our economy is unsustainable.
35
96000
3000
To znači da je naše gospodarstvo neodrživo.
01:54
I'm not saying it's not nice or pleasant
36
99000
3000
Ne govorim da nije dobro ili korisno
01:57
or that it's bad for polar bears or forests,
37
102000
2000
ili da je loše za polarne medvjede ili šume,
01:59
though it certainly is.
38
104000
2000
iako svakako jest.
02:01
What I'm saying
39
106000
2000
Zapravo hoću reći
02:03
is our approach is simply unsustainable.
40
108000
2000
da je naš pristup jednostavno neodrživ.
02:05
In other words, thanks to those pesky laws of physics,
41
110000
3000
Drugim riječima, zahvaljujući
nezgodnim zakonima fizike,
nezgodnim zakonima fizike,
02:08
when things aren't sustainable, they stop.
42
113000
3000
kad su stvari neodržive, dođe im kraj.
02:11
But that's not possible, you might think.
43
116000
2000
Ali to nije moguće, možda ćete pomisliti.
02:13
We can't stop economic growth.
44
118000
2000
Ne možemo zaustaviti gospodarski rast.
02:15
Because that's what will stop: economic growth.
45
120000
3000
Jer upravo će se to zaustaviti: gospodarski rast.
02:18
It will stop because of the end of trade resources.
46
123000
3000
Zaustavit će jer će doći kraj resursima za trgovanje.
02:21
It will stop because of the growing demand of us
47
126000
5000
Zaustavit će se jer sve više trošimo
02:26
on all the resources, all the capacity,
48
131000
2000
sve resurse, sve kapacitete,
02:28
all the systems of the Earth,
49
133000
2000
sve Zemljine sustave,
02:30
which is now having economic damage.
50
135000
3000
što je sada štetno za gospodarstvo.
02:35
When we think about economic growth stopping,
51
140000
2000
Kad razmišljamo o prestanku gospodarskog rasta,
02:37
we go, "That's not possible,"
52
142000
3000
kažemo: "To nije moguće."
02:40
because economic growth is so essential to our society
53
145000
3000
jer gospodarski je rast tako nužan za naše društvo
02:43
that is is rarely questioned.
54
148000
3000
da rijetko sumnjamo u njega.
02:46
Although growth has certainly delivered many benefits,
55
151000
3000
Iako je rast svakako pokazao brojne prednosti,
02:49
it is an idea so essential
56
154000
2000
on je toliko neophodan
02:51
that we tend not to understand
57
156000
2000
da često uopće ne razumijemo
02:53
the possibility of it not being around.
58
158000
2000
mogućnost da ga nema.
02:55
Even though it has delivered many benefits,
59
160000
2000
Iako je donio mnoge koristi,
02:57
it is based on a crazy idea --
60
162000
3000
temelji se na ludoj ideji --
03:00
the crazy idea being
61
165000
2000
na ideji
03:02
that we can have infinite growth
62
167000
2000
da možemo imati beskonačan rast
03:04
on a finite planet.
63
169000
2000
na konačnom planetu.
03:06
And I'm here to tell you the emperor has no clothes.
64
171000
3000
Došao sam vam reći da je car gol.
03:09
That the crazy idea is just that,
65
174000
2000
Da je luda ideja upravo to --
03:11
it is crazy,
66
176000
2000
luda je,
03:13
and with the Earth full, it's game over.
67
178000
2000
a budući da je Zemlja puna, ne možemo dalje.
03:15
Come on, you're thinking.
68
180000
2000
Ma daj, sigurno mislite.
03:17
That's not possible.
69
182000
2000
To nije moguće.
03:19
Technology is amazing. People are innovative.
70
184000
3000
Tehnologija je fantastična. Ljudi su inovativni.
03:22
There are so many ways we can improve the way we do things.
71
187000
2000
Ima toliko načina da popravimo
način na koji funkcioniramo.
način na koji funkcioniramo.
03:24
We can surely sort this out.
72
189000
2000
Sigurno to možemo riješiti.
03:26
That's all true.
73
191000
2000
Sve je to istina.
03:28
Well, it's mostly true.
74
193000
2000
Dobro, uglavnom je istina.
03:30
We are certainly amazing,
75
195000
2000
Mi svakako jesmo fantastični
03:32
and we regularly solve complex problems
76
197000
2000
i redovito rješavamo složene probleme
03:34
with amazing creativity.
77
199000
2000
fantastičnom kreativnošću.
03:36
So if our problem
78
201000
2000
Pa kad bi naš problem bio
03:38
was to get the human economy down
79
203000
2000
smanjiti svjetsko gospodarstvo
03:40
from 150 percent to 100 percent of the Earth's capacity,
80
205000
3000
sa 150% na 100% Zemljinih kapaciteta,
03:43
we could do that.
81
208000
2000
mogli bismo to učiniti.
03:45
The problem is we're just warming up
82
210000
2000
Problem je što tek zagrijavamo
03:47
this growth engine.
83
212000
2000
stroj za rast.
03:49
We plan to take this highly-stressed economy
84
214000
3000
Planiramo ovo napeto gospodarstvo
03:52
and make it twice as big
85
217000
3000
udvostručiti,
03:55
and then make it four times as big --
86
220000
2000
a onda učetverostručiti --
03:57
not in some distant future,
87
222000
3000
i to ne u nekoj dalekoj budućnosti,
04:00
but in less than 40 years,
88
225000
2000
nego u manje od 40 godina,
04:02
in the life time of most of you.
89
227000
3000
za života većine vas.
04:05
China plans to be there in just 20 years.
90
230000
4000
Kina to planira postići u samo 20 godina.
04:09
The only problem with this plan
91
234000
3000
Jedini problem s tim planom
04:12
is that it's not possible.
92
237000
4000
jest da nije izvediv.
04:16
In response, some people argue,
93
241000
2000
Mnogi ljudi onda kažu
04:18
but we need growth, we need it to solve poverty.
94
243000
2000
da trebamo rast, trebamo riješiti problem siromaštva.
04:20
We need it to develop technology.
95
245000
2000
Moramo razvijati tehnologiju.
04:22
We need it to keep social stability.
96
247000
2000
Moramo zadržati društvenu stabilnost.
04:24
I find this argument fascinating,
97
249000
2000
Meni je taj argument fascinantan,
04:26
as though we can kind of bend the rules of physics
98
251000
3000
kao da možemo zaobići zakone fizike
04:29
to suit our needs.
99
254000
2000
prema svojim potrebama.
04:34
It's like the Earth doesn't care what we need.
100
259000
3000
Kao da Zemlju nije briga što mi trebamo.
04:37
Mother nature doesn't negotiate;
101
262000
2000
Majka priroda ne pregovara.
04:39
she just sets rules and describes consequences.
102
264000
3000
Ona samo određuje pravila i opisuje posljedice.
04:42
And these are not esoteric limits.
103
267000
2000
To nisu neka nejasna ograničenja.
04:44
This is about food and water, soil and climate,
104
269000
2000
Radi se o hrani, vodi, tlu i klimi,
04:46
the basic practical and economic foundations
105
271000
3000
osnovnim praktičnim i gospodarskim temeljima
04:49
of our lives.
106
274000
2000
naših života.
04:53
So the idea that we can smoothly transition
107
278000
3000
Stoga, ideja da možemo glatko prijeći
04:56
to a highly-efficient,
108
281000
2000
na visokoučinkovito gospodarstvo,
04:58
solar-powered, knowledge-based economy
109
283000
2000
pogonjeno solarnom energijom
i utemeljeno na znanju,
i utemeljeno na znanju,
05:00
transformed by science and technology
110
285000
2000
koje će znanost i tehnologija preobraziti
05:02
so that nine billion people
111
287000
2000
tako da devet milijardi ljudi
05:04
can live in 2050
112
289000
3000
može 2050. godine
05:07
a life of abundance and digital downloads
113
292000
2000
živjeti u izobilju, s pristupom na internet --
05:09
is a delusion.
114
294000
3000
to je zabluda.
05:12
It's not that it's not possible to feed, clothe and house us all
115
297000
3000
Nije da je nemoguće sve nas opskrbiti
hranom, odjećom i smještajem
hranom, odjećom i smještajem
05:15
and have us live decent lives.
116
300000
3000
i omogućiti nam pristojan život.
05:18
It certainly is.
117
303000
2000
Svakako je moguće.
05:20
But the idea that we can gently grow there
118
305000
2000
Ali ideja da lako možemo prerasti u tako nešto,
05:22
with a few minor hiccups
119
307000
2000
uz nekoliko manjih problema,
05:24
is just wrong,
120
309000
2000
jednostano je pogrešna,
05:26
and it's dangerously wrong,
121
311000
2000
i to opasno pogrešna,
05:28
because it means we're not getting ready
122
313000
2000
jer znači da se ne pripremamo
05:30
for what's really going to happen.
123
315000
2000
za ono što će se zaista dogoditi.
05:32
See what happens when you operate a system
124
317000
3000
Kad upravljate sustavom
05:35
past its limits
125
320000
2000
preko njegovih mogućnosti
05:37
and then keep on going
126
322000
2000
i nastavite tako
05:39
at an ever-accelerating rate
127
324000
3000
sve bržim tempom,
05:42
is that the system stops working and breaks down.
128
327000
4000
sustav će prestati funkcionirati i pokvarit će se.
05:46
And that's what will happen to us.
129
331000
3000
To će se dogoditi i nama.
05:53
Many of you will be thinking,
130
338000
2000
Mnogi će od vas pomisliti
05:55
but surely we can still stop this.
131
340000
2000
da to zasigurno možemo zaustaviti.
05:57
If it's that bad, we'll react.
132
342000
3000
Ako je toliko loše, reagirat ćemo.
06:00
Let's just think through that idea.
133
345000
2000
Razmislimo malo o toj ideji.
06:02
Now we've had
134
347000
2000
Do sada je već prošlo
06:04
50 years of warnings.
135
349000
2000
50 godina upozoravanja.
06:06
We've had science proving
136
351000
3000
Znanost je dokazala
06:09
the urgency of change.
137
354000
2000
da nam hitno trebaju promjene.
06:11
We've had economic analysis pointing out
138
356000
2000
Ekonomske su analize pokazale da
06:13
that, not only can we afford it,
139
358000
2000
ne samo da si to možemo priuštiti,
06:15
it's cheaper to act early.
140
360000
2000
već i da je jeftinije reagirati rano.
06:17
And yet, the reality is
141
362000
2000
A ipak, stvarnost je takva
06:19
we've done pretty much nothing to change course.
142
364000
3000
da nismo učinili gotovo ništa u smjeru promjene.
06:22
We're not even slowing down.
143
367000
3000
Čak ni ne usporavamo.
06:25
Last year on climate, for example,
144
370000
2000
Po pitanju klime, primjerice,
06:27
we had the highest global emissions ever.
145
372000
2000
lani su globalno bile najviše razine emisija u povijesti.
06:29
The story on food, on water, on soil, on climate
146
374000
3000
S hranom, vodom, plodnim tlom, klimom
06:32
is all much the same.
147
377000
3000
situacija je više-manje ista.
06:35
I actually don't say this in despair.
148
380000
2000
Ne govorim ovo u očaju.
06:37
I've done my grieving about the loss.
149
382000
2000
Ja sam svoje odtugovao zbog ovog gubitka.
06:39
I accept where we are.
150
384000
2000
Prihvaćam situaciju u kojoj smo.
06:41
It is sad,
151
386000
2000
Tužna je,
06:43
but it is what it is.
152
388000
2000
ali takva je kakva je.
06:45
But it is also time
153
390000
2000
Ali isto je tako i vrijeme
06:47
that we ended our denial
154
392000
2000
da prestanemo zatvarati oči pred time
06:49
and recognized
155
394000
2000
i shvatimo
06:51
that we're not acting, we're not close to acting
156
396000
3000
da ništa ne poduzimamo, da nismo ni blizu toga
06:54
and we're not going to act
157
399000
2000
i da ni nećemo ništa poduzeti
06:56
until this crisis hits the economy.
158
401000
2000
dok ta kriza ne pogodi gospodarstvo.
06:58
And that's why the end of growth
159
403000
2000
Zato je zaustavljanje rasta
07:00
is the central issue
160
405000
2000
najvažniji problem
07:02
and the event that we need to get ready for.
161
407000
4000
i nešto na što se moramo pripremiti.
07:06
So when does this transition begin?
162
411000
2000
Kad će početi taj prijelaz?
07:08
When does this breakdown begin?
163
413000
2000
Kad će početi taj slom?
07:10
In my view, it is well underway.
164
415000
3000
Po meni, već je dobrano počeo.
07:13
I know most people don't see it that way.
165
418000
2000
Znam da većina ljudi to ne vidi tako.
07:15
We tend to look at the world,
166
420000
2000
Skloni smo tome da svijet ne gledamo
07:17
not as the integrated system that it is,
167
422000
2000
kao integrirani sustav, što on jest,
07:19
but as a series of individual issues.
168
424000
2000
već kao niz pojedinačnih problema.
07:21
We see the Occupy protests,
169
426000
3000
Vidimo prosvjede pokreta Occupy,
07:24
we see spiraling debt crises,
170
429000
2000
vidimo sve dublje dužničke krize,
07:26
we see growing inequality,
171
431000
2000
vidimo sve veću nejednakost,
07:28
we see money's influence on politics,
172
433000
2000
vidimo utjecaj novca na politiku,
07:30
we see resource constraint, food and oil prices.
173
435000
3000
vidimo ograničenost resursa, cijene hrane i goriva.
07:33
But we see, mistakenly, each of these issues
174
438000
2000
No, svaki od tih problema pogrešno vidimo
07:35
as individual problems to be solved.
175
440000
4000
kao pojedinačne probleme koje treba riješiti.
07:39
In fact, it's the system
176
444000
2000
No, zapravo je sustav
07:41
in the painful process of breaking down --
177
446000
3000
u bolnom procesu slamanja --
07:44
our system, of debt-fueled economic growth,
178
449000
3000
naš sustav gospodarskog rasta utemeljenog na dugu,
07:47
of ineffective democracy,
179
452000
2000
neučinkovite demokracije,
07:49
of overloading planet Earth,
180
454000
2000
preopterećenja planeta Zemlje,
07:51
is eating itself alive.
181
456000
3000
uništava sam sebe.
07:56
I could give you countless studies
182
461000
1000
Mogu vam navesti bezbrojne studije
07:57
and evidence to prove this,
183
462000
3000
i dokaze za to,
08:00
but I won't because, if you want to see it,
184
465000
2000
ali neću jer ako to želite vidjeti
08:02
that evidence is all around you.
185
467000
3000
dokazi su svugdje oko vas.
08:05
I want to talk to you about fear.
186
470000
3000
Želim vam govoriti o strahu.
08:08
I want to do so because, in my view,
187
473000
3000
Želim to učiniti jer mislim da je
08:11
the most important issue we face
188
476000
5000
najvažniji problem s kojim smo suočeni
08:16
is how we respond
189
481000
2000
to kako reagiramo
08:18
to this question.
190
483000
2000
na ta pitanja.
08:20
The crisis is now inevitable.
191
485000
3000
Kriza je sada neizbježna.
08:23
This issue is, how will we react?
192
488000
4000
Pitanje je kako ćemo reagirati.
08:27
Of course, we can't know what will happen.
193
492000
3000
Naravno, ne možemo znati što će se dogoditi.
08:30
The future is inherently uncertain.
194
495000
2000
Budućnost je neizvjesna.
08:32
But let's just think through what the science is telling us
195
497000
3000
No, razmislimo o tome što nam znanost kaže
08:35
is likely to happen.
196
500000
3000
da će se vjerojatno dogoditi.
08:38
Imagine our economy
197
503000
3000
Zamislite naše gospodarstvo
08:41
when the carbon bubble bursts,
198
506000
2000
kad potrošimo fosilna goriva,
08:43
when the financial markets recognize
199
508000
2000
kad financijska tržišta shvate da,
08:45
that, to have any hope
200
510000
2000
ako želimo bilo kakvu nadu
08:47
of preventing the climate spiraling out of control,
201
512000
3000
da spriječimo otimanje klime kontroli,
08:50
the oil and coal industries are finished.
202
515000
4000
industriji nafte i ugljena mora doći kraj.
08:54
Imagine China, India and Pakistan going to war
203
519000
3000
Zamislite da Kina, Indija i Pakistan krenu u rat
08:57
as climate impacts
204
522000
2000
nakon što utjecaj klime
08:59
generate conflict over food and water.
205
524000
4000
pokrene sukobe oko hrane i vode.
09:03
Imagine the Middle East without oil income,
206
528000
3000
Zamislite Bliski istok bez prihoda od nafte,
09:06
but with collapsing governments.
207
531000
2000
ali s vladama pred slomom.
09:08
Imagine our highly-tuned, just-in-time food industry
208
533000
4000
Zamislite našu automatiziranu prehrambenu industriju
09:12
and our highly-stressed agricultural system failing
209
537000
3000
i naš opterećeni poljoprivredni sustav kako propada
09:15
and supermarket shelves emptying.
210
540000
4000
i police u supermarketima kako se prazne.
09:19
Imagine 30 percent unemployment in America
211
544000
3000
Zamislite 30-postotnu nezaposlenost u Americi
09:22
as the global economy is gripped
212
547000
2000
zbog štetnih posljedica
09:24
by fear and uncertainty.
213
549000
2000
straha i nesigurnosti.
09:26
Now imagine what that means for you,
214
551000
2000
Zamislite što to znači za vas,
09:28
your family, your friends,
215
553000
3000
vašu obitelj, vaše prijatelje,
09:31
your personal financial security.
216
556000
2000
vašu financijsku sigurnost.
09:33
Imagine what it means
217
558000
2000
Zamislite što to znači
09:35
for your personal security
218
560000
2000
za vašu osobnu sigurnost,
09:37
as a heavily armed civilian population
219
562000
2000
dok teško naoružana civilna populacija
09:39
gets angrier and angrier
220
564000
2000
postaje sve ljuća
09:41
about why this was allowed to happen.
221
566000
3000
jer je dopušteno da se to dogodi.
09:45
Imagine what you'll tell your children
222
570000
2000
Razmislite što ćete reći svojoj djeci
09:47
when they ask you,
223
572000
2000
kad vas pitaju:
09:49
"So, in 2012, Mom and Dad,
224
574000
2000
"Onda, mama i tata, 2012. godine,
09:51
what was it like
225
576000
2000
kako je bilo
09:53
when you'd had the hottest decade on record
226
578000
3000
kad ste imali najtoplije zabilježeno desetljeće
09:56
for the third decade in a row,
227
581000
2000
već treće desetljeće u nizu,
09:58
when every scientific body in the world was saying
228
583000
3000
kad su svi znanstvenici na svijetu govorili
10:01
you've got a major problem,
229
586000
3000
da imate ogroman problem,
10:04
when the oceans were acidifying,
230
589000
2000
kad su oceani postajali sve kiseliji,
10:06
when oil and food prices were spiking,
231
591000
2000
kad su cijene nafte i hrane bile na vrhuncu,
10:08
when they were rioting in the streets of London
232
593000
3000
kad su na ulicama Londona bili neredi
10:11
and occupying Wall Street?
233
596000
2000
i kad je okupiran Wall Street?
10:13
When the system was so clearly breaking down, Mom and Dad,
234
598000
3000
Dok se sustav tako očito rušio, mama i tata,
10:16
what did you do, what were you thinking?"
235
601000
3000
što ste vi učinili, o čemu ste razmišljali?"
10:21
So how do you feel
236
606000
3000
Kako se osjećate
10:24
when the lights go out
237
609000
2000
kad se ugase svjetla
10:26
on the global economy in your mind,
238
611000
4000
svjetskog gospodarstva u vašoj glavi,
10:30
when your assumptions about the future
239
615000
3000
kad vaše pretpostavke o budućnosti
10:33
fade away
240
618000
2000
izblijede
10:35
and something very different emerges?
241
620000
3000
i pojavi se nešto mnogo drugačije?
10:38
Just take a moment
242
623000
2000
Zastanite na trenutak,
10:40
and take a breath
243
625000
2000
udahnite
10:42
and think, what do you feel
244
627000
3000
i razmislite što osjećate
10:45
at this point?
245
630000
2000
u ovom trenutku.
10:51
Perhaps denial.
246
636000
3000
Možda poričete.
10:54
Perhaps anger.
247
639000
3000
Možda ste ljuti.
10:57
Maybe fear.
248
642000
3000
Možda se bojite.
11:02
Of course, we can't know what's going to happen
249
647000
3000
Naravno, ne možemo znati što će se dogoditi
11:05
and we have to live with uncertainty.
250
650000
3000
i moramo živjeti s nesigurnošću.
11:08
But when we think about the kind of possibilities I paint,
251
653000
4000
No, kad razmislimo o mogućnostima koje prikazujem,
11:12
we should feel a bit of fear.
252
657000
4000
i trebamo se malo bojati.
11:16
We are in danger, all of us,
253
661000
3000
U opasnosti smo, svi mi,
11:19
and we've evolved to respond to danger with fear
254
664000
3000
i evolucijski na opasnost reagiramo strahom
11:22
to motivate a powerful response,
255
667000
4000
kako bismo potaknuli snažnu reakciju
11:26
to help us bravely face a threat.
256
671000
3000
i hrabro se suočili s prijetnjom.
11:29
But this time it's not a tiger at the cave mouth.
257
674000
3000
No, ovaj put tigar nije na ulazu u spilju.
11:32
You can't see the danger at your door.
258
677000
3000
Opasnost nije jasno vidljiva.
11:35
But if you look,
259
680000
2000
No, ako pogledate,
11:37
you can see it at the door of your civilization.
260
682000
4000
vidjet ćete je pred vratima svoje civilizacije.
11:41
That's why we need to feel our response now while the lights are still on,
261
686000
3000
Zato moramo smisliti svoju reakciju
sada, dok su svjetla još upaljena,
sada, dok su svjetla još upaljena,
11:44
because if we wait until the crisis takes hold,
262
689000
3000
jer ako budemo čekali da kriza nastupi svom snagom,
11:47
we may panic and hide.
263
692000
2000
mogli bismo se uspaničariti i sakriti.
11:49
If we feel it now and think it through,
264
694000
2000
Ako to smislimo i promislimo sada,
11:51
we will realize we have nothing to fear
265
696000
2000
shvatit ćemo da se ne trebamo bojati ničega
11:53
but fear itself.
266
698000
3000
osim samog straha.
11:58
Yes, things will get ugly, and it will happen soon --
267
703000
3000
Da, stvari će postati gadne, i to uskoro --
12:01
certainly in our lifetime --
268
706000
2000
svakako za naših života --
12:03
but we are more than capable
269
708000
2000
ali i više smo nego sposobni
12:05
of getting through everything that's coming.
270
710000
3000
preživjeti sve što dolazi.
12:08
You see, those people that have faith
271
713000
3000
Vidite, ljudi koji vjeruju
12:11
that humans can solve any problem,
272
716000
3000
da čovječanstvo može riješiti bilo koji problem,
12:14
that technology is limitless, that markets can be a force for good,
273
719000
3000
da je tehnologija bezgranična,
da tržišta mogu biti pozitivna sila,
da tržišta mogu biti pozitivna sila,
12:17
are in fact right.
274
722000
2000
zapravo su u pravu.
12:19
The only thing they're missing
275
724000
2000
Jedino što ne uviđaju
12:21
is that it takes a good crisis to get us going.
276
726000
3000
jest da je potrebna velika kriza da nas pokrene.
12:24
When we feel fear and we fear loss
277
729000
3000
Kad osjećamo strah i bojimo se gubitka,
12:27
we are capable of quite extraordinary things.
278
732000
3000
sposobni smo za izvanredne stvari.
12:30
Think about war.
279
735000
3000
Primjerice, rat.
12:33
After the bombing of Pearl Harbor, it just took four days
280
738000
3000
Nakon bombardiranja Pearl Harbora,
vlada je nakon samo četiri dana
vlada je nakon samo četiri dana
12:36
for the government to ban the production of civilian cars
281
741000
2000
zabranila proizvodnju civilnih automobila
12:38
and to redirect the auto industry,
282
743000
2000
i preusmjerila automobilsku industriju,
12:40
and from there to rationing of food and energy.
283
745000
4000
a zatim prešla na racionalizaciju hrane i energije.
12:44
Think about how a company responds to a bankruptcy threat
284
749000
3000
Sjetite se kako tvrtke reagiraju kad im prijeti bankrot
12:47
and how a change that seemed impossible just gets done.
285
752000
3000
i kako se promjene koje su se činile nemogućima
jednostavno dogode.
jednostavno dogode.
12:50
Think about how an individual responds
286
755000
2000
Sjetite se kako pojedinci reagiraju
12:52
to a diagnosis of a life-threatening illness
287
757000
3000
na dijagnozu bolesti opasne po život
12:55
and how lifestyle changes
288
760000
2000
i kako promjene u stilu života
12:57
that previously were just too difficult
289
762000
3000
koje su prije bile preteške
13:00
suddenly become relatively easy.
290
765000
4000
odjednom postanu relativno lake.
13:04
We are smart, in fact, we really are quite amazing,
291
769000
3000
Pametni smo -- zapravo smo fantastični,
13:07
but we do love a good crisis.
292
772000
2000
ali stvarno volimo pravu krizu.
13:09
And the good news, this one's a monster.
293
774000
2000
Dobra je vijest da je ova pravo čudovište.
13:11
(Laughter)
294
776000
2000
(Smijeh)
13:13
Sure, if we get it wrong,
295
778000
2000
Naravno, ako ne obavimo sve kako treba,
13:15
we could face the end of this civilization,
296
780000
2000
mogli bismo doživjeti kraj ove civilizacije,
13:17
but if we get it right,
297
782000
2000
ali ako sve učinimo dobro,
13:19
it could be the beginning of civilization instead.
298
784000
3000
mogao bi to biti početak civilizacije.
13:22
And how cool would it be
299
787000
2000
Ne bi li bilo cool
13:24
to tell your grandchildren that you were part of that?
300
789000
3000
ispričati svojim unucima da ste sudjelovali u tome?
13:29
There's certainly no technical or economic barrier in the way.
301
794000
5000
Svakako nema tehničkih ni ekonomskih prepreka.
13:34
Scientists like James Hansen tell us
302
799000
2000
Znanstvenici poput Jamesa Hansena kažu nam
13:36
we may need to eliminate net CO2 emissions from the economy
303
801000
3000
da ćemo možda morati ukloniti
emisije CO2 iz gospodarstva
emisije CO2 iz gospodarstva
13:39
in just a few decades.
304
804000
2000
u samo nekoliko desetljeća.
13:41
I wanted to know what that would take,
305
806000
2000
Htio sam znati što bi bilo potrebno za to
13:43
so I worked with professor Jorgen Randers from Norway
306
808000
3000
pa sam surađivao s profesorom
Jorgenom Randersom iz Norveške
Jorgenom Randersom iz Norveške
13:46
to find the answer.
307
811000
2000
kako bih pronašao odgovor.
13:48
We developed a plan called "The One Degree War Plan" --
308
813000
4000
Razradili smo plan pod nazivom
"Ratni plan u jednom koraku" --
"Ratni plan u jednom koraku" --
13:52
so named because of the level of mobilization and focus required.
309
817000
4000
tako nazvan zbog potrebne razine
mobilizacije i usredotočenosti.
mobilizacije i usredotočenosti.
13:56
To my surprise,
310
821000
2000
Na moje iznenađenje,
13:58
eliminating net CO2 emissions from the economy in just 20 years
311
823000
3000
uklanjanje neto emisija CO2
iz gospodarstva u samo 20 godina
iz gospodarstva u samo 20 godina
14:01
is actually pretty easy and pretty cheap,
312
826000
3000
zapravo je prilično lako i jeftino.
14:04
not very cheap,
313
829000
2000
Nije baš vrlo jeftino,
14:06
but certainly less than the cost of a collapsing civilization.
314
831000
3000
ali svakako će stajati manje nego pad civilizacije.
14:09
We didn't calculate that precisely,
315
834000
2000
To nismo precizno izračunali,
14:11
but we understand that's very expensive.
316
836000
3000
ali čini nam se da bi to bilo vrlo skupo.
14:14
You can read the details,
317
839000
2000
Detalje možete pročitati,
14:16
but in summary, we can transform our economy.
318
841000
2000
ali ukratko, možemo
preoblikovati svoje gospodarstvo.
preoblikovati svoje gospodarstvo.
14:18
We can do it with proven technology.
319
843000
2000
Možemo to učiniti iskušanom tehnologijom.
14:20
We can do it at an affordable cost.
320
845000
2000
Možemo to učiniti uz prihvatljiv trošak.
14:22
We can do it with existing political structures.
321
847000
2000
Možemo to učiniti uz postojeće političke strukture.
14:24
The only thing we need to change
322
849000
2000
Jedino što trebamo promijeniti
14:26
is how we think and how we feel.
323
851000
3000
jest način na koji mislimo i osjećamo.
14:29
And this is where you come in.
324
854000
3000
Tu nastupate vi.
14:32
When we think about the future I paint,
325
857000
2000
Kad razmišljamo o budućnosti koju prikazujem,
14:34
of course we should feel a bit of fear.
326
859000
2000
naravno da bismo trebali osjećati malo straha.
14:36
But fear can be paralyzing or motivating.
327
861000
3000
No, strah nas može paralizirati ili motivirati.
14:39
We need to accept the fear and then we need to act.
328
864000
3000
Moramo prihvatiti strah i zatim moramo djelovati.
14:42
We need to act
329
867000
2000
Moramo djelovati
14:44
like the future depends on it.
330
869000
2000
kao da nam budućnost ovisi o tome.
14:46
We need to act like we only have one planet.
331
871000
3000
Moramo djelovati kao da imamo samo jedan planet.
14:50
We can do this.
332
875000
2000
Možemo to učiniti.
14:52
I know the free market fundamentalists will tell you
333
877000
3000
Znam da će vam zagovaratelji slobodnog tržišta reći
14:55
that more growth, more stuff and nine billion people going shopping
334
880000
3000
da je veći rast, više stvari
i 9 milijardi ljudi koji idu u kupnju
i 9 milijardi ljudi koji idu u kupnju
14:58
is the best we can do.
335
883000
2000
najbolje što možemo učiniti.
15:00
They're wrong.
336
885000
2000
U krivu su.
15:02
We can be more,
337
887000
2000
Možemo biti više od toga,
15:04
we can be much more.
338
889000
2000
možemo biti mnogo više.
15:06
We have achieved remarkable things
339
891000
3000
Postigli smo zapanjujuće stvari
15:09
since working out how to grow food some 10,000 years ago.
340
894000
2000
otkad smo otkrili kako se uzgaja hrana
pred nekih 10.000 godina.
pred nekih 10.000 godina.
15:11
We've built a powerful foundation
341
896000
3000
Izgradili smo čvrst temelj
15:14
of science, knowledge and technology --
342
899000
2000
u znanosti, znanju i tehnologiji --
15:16
more than enough to build a society
343
901000
2000
što je i više nego dovoljno za izgradnju društva
15:18
where nine billion people
344
903000
2000
u kojem devet milijardi ljudi
15:20
can lead decent, meaningful and satisfying lives.
345
905000
2000
može voditi pristojne,
smislene i zadovoljavajuće živote.
smislene i zadovoljavajuće živote.
15:22
The Earth can support that
346
907000
2000
Zemlja to može izdržati
15:24
if we choose the right path.
347
909000
4000
ako odaberemo pravi put.
15:28
We can choose this moment of crisis
348
913000
2000
Možemo u ovom trenutku krize
15:30
to ask and answer the big questions of society's evolution --
349
915000
3000
postaviti i odgovoriti na
velika pitanja evolucije društva --
velika pitanja evolucije društva --
15:33
like, what do we want to be when we grow up,
350
918000
3000
primjerice, što želimo biti kad odrastemo,
15:36
when we move past this bumbling adolescence
351
921000
3000
kad prođemo ovu nespretnu adolescenciju
15:39
where we think there are no limits
352
924000
2000
u kojoj mislimo da nema ograničenja
15:41
and suffer delusions of immortality?
353
926000
3000
i patimo od iluzija besmrtnosti?
15:44
Well it's time to grow up,
354
929000
2000
Vrijeme je da odrastemo,
15:46
to be wiser, to be calmer,
355
931000
2000
da postanemo mudriji, mirniji,
15:48
to be more considered.
356
933000
2000
da budemo obzirniji.
15:50
Like generations before us,
357
935000
2000
Poput generacija prije nas,
15:52
we'll be growing up in war --
358
937000
2000
odrastat ćemo uz rat --
15:54
not a war between civilizations,
359
939000
2000
ne rat između civilizacija,
15:56
but a war for civilization,
360
941000
2000
nego rat za civilizaciju,
15:58
for the extraordinary opportunity
361
943000
2000
za izvanrednu priliku
16:00
to build a society
362
945000
2000
da izgradimo društvo
16:02
which is stronger and happier
363
947000
2000
koje je snažnije i sretnije
16:04
and plans on staying around
364
949000
2000
i planira doživjeti
16:06
into middle age.
365
951000
3000
i zrelu dob.
16:09
We can choose life over fear.
366
954000
2000
Možemo izabrati život umjesto straha.
16:11
We can do what we need to do,
367
956000
4000
Možemo učiniti ono što je potrebno,
16:15
but it will take every entrepreneur,
368
960000
2000
ali za to će biti potreban svaki poduzetnik,
16:17
every artist,
369
962000
2000
svaki umjetnik,
16:19
every scientist, every communicator,
370
964000
2000
svaki znanstvenik,
16:21
every mother, every father, every child,
371
966000
3000
svaka majka, svaki otac, svako dijete,
16:24
every one of us.
372
969000
3000
svatko od nas.
16:27
This could be our finest hour.
373
972000
3000
Ovo nam je možda najvažniji trenutak u životu.
16:30
Thank you.
374
975000
2000
Hvala.
16:32
(Applause)
375
977000
8000
(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Paul Gilding - WriterPaul Gilding is an independent writer, activist and adviser on a sustainable economy. Click through to watch the onstage debate that followed this talk.
Why you should listen
Watch the debate with Peter Diamandis that followed this talk >>
Paul Gilding has spent 35 years trying to change the world. He’s served in the Australian military, chased nuclear armed aircraft carriers in small inflatable boats, plugged up industrial waste discharge pipes, been global CEO of Greenpeace, taught at Cambridge University, started two successful businesses and advised the CEOs of some the world’s largest companies.
Despite his clear lack of progress, the unstoppable and flexible optimist is now a writer and advocate, travelling the world with his book The Great Disruption alerting people to the global economic and ecological crisis unfolding around us, as the world economy reaches and passes the limits to growth. He is confident we can get through what’s coming and says rather than the end of civilization, this could be the beginning! He argues we will rise to the occasion and see change at a scale and speed incomprehensible today, but need to urgently prepare for The Great Disruption and “the end of shopping”, as we reinvent the global economy and our model of social progress.
Read his reaction to attending TED2012: "Will the techno-optimists save the world?"
Paul Gilding | Speaker | TED.com