TED2015
Stephen Petranek: Your kids might live on Mars. Here's how they'll survive
斯蒂芬 派查尼克: 你的孩子可能在火星上生活，來看看他們將如何生存吧
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這聽起來像科幻小說，但斯蒂芬 派查尼克卻認為：在20年內，人類將在火星上生活。在這場煽動性的講座中，派查尼克說明人類將成為在宇宙中穿梭的物種，並用引人入勝的細節描述了我們將如何把火星變成我們的下一個家園。 「不管地球上發生了什麼，人類將會生存下去，」派查尼克說。 「人類不會滅亡。」
Stephen Petranek - Technology forecaster
Stephen Petranek untangles emerging technologies to predict which will become fixtures of our future lives -- and which could potentially save them. Full bio
Stephen Petranek untangles emerging technologies to predict which will become fixtures of our future lives -- and which could potentially save them. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
Strap yourselves in,
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繫好安全帶,
00:15
we're going to Mars.
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我們要去火星。
00:17
Not just a few astronauts --
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不只是幾個太空人－
00:19
thousands of people
are going to colonize Mars.
are going to colonize Mars.
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而是數以千計的人們要殖民火星。
00:22
And I am telling you
that they're going to do this soon.
that they're going to do this soon.
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我想告訴你，這件事就快發生了。
00:26
Some of you will end up
working on projects on Mars,
working on projects on Mars,
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你們其中的一些人最終將在火星上工作，
00:29
and I guarantee that some
of your children will end up living there.
of your children will end up living there.
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而且我敢肯定
你們的孩子最終也會在那裡生活。
你們的孩子最終也會在那裡生活。
00:33
That probably sounds preposterous,
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這可能聽起來有些荒謬，
00:36
so I'm going to share with you
how and when that will happen.
how and when that will happen.
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所以，我將和各位分享
這會發生在何時，和如何發生。
這會發生在何時，和如何發生。
00:39
But first I want to discuss
the obvious question:
the obvious question:
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但首先我想討論一個
顯而易見的問題：
顯而易見的問題：
00:43
Why the heck should we do this?
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我們為何要這麼做？
00:45
12 years ago,
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12 年前，
00:46
I gave a TED talk on 10 ways
the world could end suddenly.
the world could end suddenly.
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我做過一場 TED 演說，
是關於10 種世界突然毀滅的情況。
是關於10 種世界突然毀滅的情況。
00:50
We are incredibly vulnerable
to the whims of our own galaxy.
to the whims of our own galaxy.
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在銀河系中的任何無意義的小事面前，
我們都是難以想像的脆弱。
我們都是難以想像的脆弱。
00:55
A single, large asteroid
could take us out forever.
could take us out forever.
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僅一顆大隕石就能將我們滅亡。
00:59
To survive we have to reach
beyond the home planet.
beyond the home planet.
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為了生存，我們不能只侷限在地球。
01:02
Think what a tragedy it would be
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想想這是怎樣的悲劇，
01:04
if all that humans have accomplished
were suddenly obliterated.
were suddenly obliterated.
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如果人類所有的成就被瞬間摧毀。
01:08
And there's another reason we should go:
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而另一個理由：
01:10
exploration is in our DNA.
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就是我們基因裡的冒險精神。
01:13
Two million years ago
humans evolved in Africa
humans evolved in Africa
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兩百萬年前人類從非洲崛起，
01:17
and then slowly but surely
spread out across the entire planet
spread out across the entire planet
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然後緩慢但穩定地遍佈整個星球，
01:22
by reaching into the wilderness
that was beyond their horizons.
that was beyond their horizons.
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通過探索茫茫無際的未知曠野。
01:25
This stuff is inside us.
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這是人類的本能。
01:27
And they prospered doing that.
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並且藉此繁榮。
01:30
Some of the greatest advances
in civilization and technology
in civilization and technology
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文明與科技的飛躍發展，
01:34
came because we explored.
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也基於我們的探索 。
01:37
Yes, we could do a lot of good
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沒錯，
用於創建和繁榮火星殖民地的資金
用於創建和繁榮火星殖民地的資金
01:38
with the money it will take
to establish a thriving colony on Mars.
to establish a thriving colony on Mars.
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的確可以用來做很多其他事情。
01:42
And yes we should all be taking
far better care of our own home planet.
far better care of our own home planet.
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而且，我們確實應該
更好的照顧地球。
更好的照顧地球。
01:48
And yes, I worry we could screw up Mars
the way we've screwed up Earth.
the way we've screwed up Earth.
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並且，我也擔心我們會把
火星弄得和地球一樣糟。
火星弄得和地球一樣糟。
01:54
But think for a moment,
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但是想想看，
01:55
what we had when John F. Kennedy
told us we would put a human on the moon.
told us we would put a human on the moon.
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當約翰·甘迺迪宣布，
我們將把人類送上月球的時刻。
我們將把人類送上月球的時刻。
02:00
He excited an entire generation to dream.
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他點燃了整整一代人的夢想。
02:05
Think how inspired we will be
to see a landing on Mars.
to see a landing on Mars.
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想像當我們親眼目睹
登陸火星會多鼓舞人心。
登陸火星會多鼓舞人心。
02:08
Perhaps then we will look back at Earth
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或許之後，我們回頭看地球，
02:11
and see that that is
one people instead of many
one people instead of many
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看到的是一個人而不是很多人，
02:14
and perhaps then
we will look back at Earth,
we will look back at Earth,
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或許之後，當我們在
02:17
as we struggle to survive on Mars,
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火星上艱困生存的時候，
02:19
and realize how precious
the home planet is.
the home planet is.
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再回頭看地球，
才會了解到地球的珍貴。
才會了解到地球的珍貴。
02:23
So let me tell you about the extraordinary
adventure we're about to undertake.
adventure we're about to undertake.
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現在，我來告訴你
這場即將開始的非凡冒險。
這場即將開始的非凡冒險。
02:29
But first,
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但首先，
02:30
a few fascinating facts
about where we're going.
about where we're going.
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先說說本次目的地的奇特之處。
02:34
This picture actually represents
the true size of Mars compared to Earth.
the true size of Mars compared to Earth.
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這張照片顯示出火星
對比地球的真實大小。
對比地球的真實大小。
02:38
Mars is not our sister planet.
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火星不是我們的姐妹星球。
02:40
It's far less than half
the size of the Earth,
the size of the Earth,
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她連地球的一半都不到，
02:43
and yet despite the fact
that it's smaller,
that it's smaller,
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然而，儘管它的實際體積較小，
02:45
the surface area of Mars
that you can stand on
that you can stand on
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但火星上可站立的地表面積
02:47
is equivalent to the surface area
of the Earth that you can stand on,
of the Earth that you can stand on,
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等同於地球上的可站立地表面積，
02:51
because the Earth
is mostly covered by water.
is mostly covered by water.
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因為地球大部分表面是被水覆蓋著。
02:55
The atmosphere on Mars is really thin --
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火星的大氣層非常稀薄 －
02:57
100 times thinner than on Earth --
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比地球稀薄上百倍 －
02:59
and it's not breathable,
it's 96 percent carbon dioxide.
it's 96 percent carbon dioxide.
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而且96%是二氧化碳，所以無法呼吸。
03:04
It's really cold there.
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那裏非常冷。
03:06
The average temperature
is minus 81 degrees,
is minus 81 degrees,
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平均溫度在華氏負81度，
03:09
although there is
quite a range of temperature.
quite a range of temperature.
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日夜溫差很大。
03:13
A day on Mars is about as long
as a day on Earth,
as a day on Earth,
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火星上的一天相當於地球上的一天，
03:15
plus about 39 minutes.
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再加上約39分鐘。
03:18
Seasons and years on Mars
are twice as long as they are on Earth.
are twice as long as they are on Earth.
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火星上的一季和一年的長度
大約是地球的兩倍。
大約是地球的兩倍。
03:24
And for anybody who wants to strap
on some wings and go flying one day,
on some wings and go flying one day,
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對於想要插上翅膀
在天空飛翔的人們而言，
在天空飛翔的人們而言，
03:28
Mars has a lot less gravity than on Earth,
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火星比地球重力更小，
03:31
and it's the kind of place
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在這裡，
03:32
where you can jump over your car
instead of walk around it.
instead of walk around it.
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你可以跳過車輛而不用繞過它。
03:36
Now, as you can see,
Mars isn't exactly Earth-like,
Mars isn't exactly Earth-like,
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如你所見，火星並不像地球，
03:39
but it's by far the most livable
other place in our entire solar system.
other place in our entire solar system.
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但卻是目前為止，太陽系中
另一個最適合人類居住的地方。
另一個最適合人類居住的地方。
03:45
Here's the problem.
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那麼問題來了，
03:46
Mars is a long way away,
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火星好遠，
03:49
a thousand times farther away
from us than our own moon.
from us than our own moon.
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比我們到月球的距離還要遠上千倍。
03:54
The Moon is 250,000 miles away
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月球離地球有25萬英里，
03:58
and it took Apollo astronauts
three days to get there.
three days to get there.
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而阿波羅太空人花了3天才到。
04:02
Mars is 250 million miles away
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火星離地球有2.5億英里，
04:05
and it will take us
eight months to get there --
eight months to get there --
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需要8個月才能到達 －
04:08
240 days.
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就是240天。
04:10
And that's only if we launch
on a very specific day,
on a very specific day,
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而且還必需在特定的日子，
04:12
at a very specific time,
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特定的時間出發，
04:14
once every two years,
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每兩年才有一次的機會，
04:16
when Mars and the Earth
are aligned just so,
are aligned just so,
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當火星和地球對齊時，
04:19
so the distance that the rocket
would have to travel will be the shortest.
would have to travel will be the shortest.
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火箭航行距離最短。
04:24
240 days is a long time to spend
trapped with your colleagues in a tin can.
trapped with your colleagues in a tin can.
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和同事一起被困在鐵皮罐裡
240天是相當漫長的。
240天是相當漫長的。
04:30
And meanwhile, our track record
of getting to Mars is lousy.
of getting to Mars is lousy.
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並且，我們前往火星的記錄也很糟。
04:34
We and the Russians,
the Europeans, the Japanese,
the Europeans, the Japanese,
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我們（美國）和俄羅斯，歐洲，日本，
04:37
the Chinese and the Indians,
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以及中國和印度，
04:39
have actually sent 44 rockets there,
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事實上，已發射了44枚火箭，
04:41
and the vast majority of them
have either missed or crashed.
have either missed or crashed.
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但絕大部分不是沒射中就是撞毀。
04:45
Only about a third of the missions
to Mars have been successful.
to Mars have been successful.
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只有三分之一成功到達。
04:49
And we don't at the moment have
a rocket big enough to get there anyway.
a rocket big enough to get there anyway.
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而且我們目前還沒有
夠大的火箭飛到那裡。
夠大的火箭飛到那裡。
04:55
We once had that rocket, the Saturn V.
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我們曾經有那樣的火箭，土星五號。
04:57
A couple of Saturn Vs
would have gotten us there.
would have gotten us there.
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把幾枚土星五號
捆在一起就能把我們送達。
捆在一起就能把我們送達。
04:59
It was the most magnificent
machine ever built by humans,
machine ever built by humans,
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那是人類建造過的最大機器，
05:03
and it was the rocket
that took us to the Moon.
that took us to the Moon.
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也是帶我們去月球的火箭。
05:06
But the last Saturn V was used in 1973
to launch the Skylab space station,
to launch the Skylab space station,
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1973年，最後一枚土星五號
被發射到天空實驗室空間站，
被發射到天空實驗室空間站，
05:11
and we decided to do
something called the shuttle
something called the shuttle
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在登陸月球之後，
我們決定使用太空梭
我們決定使用太空梭
05:14
instead of continuing on to Mars
after we landed on the Moon.
after we landed on the Moon.
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來執行後續的火星之旅。
05:18
The biggest rocket we have now
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我們現有的最大火箭，
05:20
is only half big enough
to get us anything to Mars.
to get us anything to Mars.
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只有前往火星所需火箭的一半大小。
05:24
So getting to Mars is not going to be easy
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因此前行的路並不容易，
05:27
and that brings up
a really interesting question ...
a really interesting question ...
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這就產生了問題...
05:31
how soon will the first humans
actually land here?
actually land here?
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人類最快何時能首次登陸火星？
05:37
Now, some pundits think
if we got there by 2050,
if we got there by 2050,
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現在，一些專家認為
如果2050年能去，
如果2050年能去，
05:41
that'd be a pretty good achievement.
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就已經相當不錯了。
05:43
These days, NASA seems to be saying
that it can get humans to Mars by 2040.
that it can get humans to Mars by 2040.
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但最近，NASA（美國航天航空局）
似乎認為2040年就能送人類上火星。
似乎認為2040年就能送人類上火星。
05:50
Maybe they can.
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也許他們可以。
05:52
I believe that they can get
human beings into Mars orbit by 2035.
human beings into Mars orbit by 2035.
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我相信他們能在2035年
將人類送入火星軌道。
將人類送入火星軌道。
05:57
But frankly,
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但坦率地說，
05:59
I don't think they're going to bother
in 2035 to send a rocket to Mars,
in 2035 to send a rocket to Mars,
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我不認為他們到2035年
還擔心發射火箭到火星的事，
還擔心發射火箭到火星的事，
06:03
because we will already be there.
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因為我們已經在那裡了。
06:05
We're going to land on Mars in 2027.
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我們將於2027年登陸火星。
06:10
And the reason is
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這是因為
06:11
this man is determined
to make that happen.
to make that happen.
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有人下決心要實現它。
06:13
His name is Elon Musk,
he's the CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX.
he's the CEO of Tesla Motors and SpaceX.
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他叫伊隆·馬斯克，
特斯拉汽車和SpaceX公司的CEO。
特斯拉汽車和SpaceX公司的CEO。
06:19
Now, he actually told me
that we would land on Mars by 2025,
that we would land on Mars by 2025,
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現在，他肯定的告訴我，
我們將在2025年登陸火星，
我們將在2025年登陸火星，
06:25
but Elon Musk is more
optimistic than I am --
optimistic than I am --
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伊隆·馬斯克比我更樂觀－
06:27
and that's going a ways --
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這是他的方式 －
06:29
so I'm giving him
a couple of years of slack.
a couple of years of slack.
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所以我多給出幾年的彈性時間。
06:32
Still ...
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但是......
06:34
you've got to ask yourself,
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或許你會懷疑，
06:35
can this guy really do this
by 2025 or 2027?
by 2025 or 2027?
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這傢伙真的能在2025年
或兩年後做到嗎？
或兩年後做到嗎？
06:40
Well, let's put a decade with Elon Musk
into a little perspective.
into a little perspective.
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好吧，讓我們來看
伊隆·馬斯克十年內能做些什麼。
伊隆·馬斯克十年內能做些什麼。
06:45
Where was this 10 years ago?
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如果在10年前？
06:47
That's the Tesla electric automobile.
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提到特斯拉電動汽車－
06:49
In 2005, a lot of people
in the automobile industry were saying,
in the automobile industry were saying,
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在2005年，很多汽車業內人士都說，
06:53
we would not have
a decent electric car for 50 years.
a decent electric car for 50 years.
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我們在50年內不會有像樣的電動汽車。
07:00
And where was that?
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那麼還有呢？
07:02
That is SpaceX's Falcon 9 rocket,
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那是SpaceX公司的獵鷹9號火箭，
07:05
lifting six tons of supplies
to the International Space Station.
to the International Space Station.
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運送6噸補給品到國際空間站。
07:09
10 years ago,
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可在10年前，
07:10
SpaceX had not launched anything,
or fired a rocket to anywhere.
or fired a rocket to anywhere.
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SpaceX公司沒有發射過任何火箭。
07:16
So I think it's a pretty good bet
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所以，我認為這值得一賭，
07:19
that the person who is revolutionizing
the automobile industry
the automobile industry
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他只用不到10年時間
07:22
in less than 10 years
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就革新了整個汽車工業。
07:23
and the person who created an entire
rocket company in less than 10 years
rocket company in less than 10 years
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並在10年內裡創建了整個火箭研製公司，
07:29
will get us to Mars by 2027.
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是可能在2027年把我們送去火星的。
07:32
Now, you need to know this:
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現在，你要知道：
07:35
governments and robots
no longer control this game.
no longer control this game.
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政府和機器人不再控制壟斷這領域，
07:40
Private companies are leaping into space
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私人公司湧入其中。
07:42
and they will be happy
to take you to Mars.
to take you to Mars.
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他們很樂意帶你去火星。
07:45
And that raises a really big question.
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這就產生了關鍵性問題。
07:49
Can we actually live there?
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我們真的可以在那裡生活嗎？
07:52
Now, NASA may not be able
to get us there until 2040,
to get us there until 2040,
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在2040年之前，NASA
可能無法送我們去那裡，
可能無法送我們去那裡，
07:56
or we may get there
a long time before NASA,
a long time before NASA,
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或者我們在NASA之前就做到了，
07:59
but NASA has taken a huge responsibility
in figuring out how we can live on Mars.
in figuring out how we can live on Mars.
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但NASA肩負了確保人類
在火星上生存的巨大責任。
在火星上生存的巨大責任。
08:04
Let's look at the problem this way.
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換個方式來看這個難題。
08:06
Here's what you need to live on Earth:
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這是你在地球上生活的必需品：
08:08
food, water, shelter and clothing.
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食品、水、住所和衣物。
08:12
And here's what you need to live on Mars:
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而在火星上的必需品是
08:14
all of the above, plus oxygen.
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上述所有，加上氧氣。
08:18
So let's look at the most
important thing on this list first.
important thing on this list first.
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因此，我們先來看清單中最重要部分。
08:22
Water is the basis
of all life as we know it,
of all life as we know it,
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如眾所知，水是所有生命的基礎，
08:25
and it's far too heavy for us to carry
water from the Earth to Mars to live,
water from the Earth to Mars to live,
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要把水從地球運到火星是不實際的，
08:29
so we have to find water
if our life is going to succeed on Mars.
if our life is going to succeed on Mars.
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所以，
要在火星上生存就必須找到水。
要在火星上生存就必須找到水。
08:35
And if you look at Mars,
it looks really dry,
it looks really dry,
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但你來看火星，
它看起來非常乾旱，
它看起來非常乾旱，
08:38
it looks like the entire
planet is a desert.
planet is a desert.
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整顆星球就像一個沙漠。
08:41
But it turns out that it's not.
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但事實證明，並非如此。
08:43
The soil alone on Mars
contains up to 60 percent water.
contains up to 60 percent water.
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火星土壤含水量可高達60％。
08:48
And a number of orbiters that we still
have flying around Mars have shown us --
have flying around Mars have shown us --
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從許多繞火星飛行的人造衛星
所獲得的資料－
所獲得的資料－
08:53
and by the way,
that's a real photograph --
that's a real photograph --
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順便說一下，這是張真實的照片－
08:56
that lots of craters on Mars
have a sheet of water ice in them.
have a sheet of water ice in them.
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火星上很多火山口
都覆蓋一層冰水物質。
都覆蓋一層冰水物質。
09:00
It's not a bad place to start a colony.
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在這是建立殖民地就不錯。
09:03
Now, here's a view of a little dig
the Phoenix Lander did in 2008,
the Phoenix Lander did in 2008,
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這張2008年拍攝的照片
展示鳳凰號登陸器的挖掘實景，
展示鳳凰號登陸器的挖掘實景，
09:08
showing that just below
the surface of the soil is ice --
the surface of the soil is ice --
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可以看到土壤表層下是冰。
09:11
that white stuff is ice.
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那白色的物體就是冰。
09:13
In the second picture,
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在第二張照片裡，
09:15
which is four days later
than the first picture,
than the first picture,
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是上張照片的四天後所拍攝的，
09:17
you can see that
some of it is evaporating.
some of it is evaporating.
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你可以看到，有一部分冰蒸發了。
09:20
Orbiters also tell us
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人造衛星也告訴我們
09:21
that there are huge amounts
of underground water on Mars
of underground water on Mars
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火星上有大量地下水
09:24
as well as glaciers.
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以及冰川。
09:26
In fact, if only the water ice
at the poles on Mars melted,
at the poles on Mars melted,
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實際上，如果僅僅火星兩極的冰蓋融化，
09:31
most of the planet
would be under 30 feet of water.
would be under 30 feet of water.
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星球的大部分將淹沒在30英尺的水之下。
09:34
So there's plenty of water there,
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所以，火星水源充足，
09:37
but most of it's ice,
most of it's underground,
most of it's underground,
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但大部分是冰，
大部分也儲存於地表之下，
大部分也儲存於地表之下，
09:39
it takes a lot of energy to get it
and a lot of human labor.
and a lot of human labor.
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需要大量的能源和人力去開採。
09:44
This is a device cooked up
at the University of Washington
at the University of Washington
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這是華盛頓大學所發明的設備
09:46
back in 1998.
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早在1998年。
09:48
It's basically a low-tech dehumidifier.
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這基本上就是個低技術的除濕機。
09:51
And it turns out the Mars atmosphere
is often 100 percent humid.
is often 100 percent humid.
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而事實證明，
火星大氣層常處於100％的濕度。
火星大氣層常處於100％的濕度。
09:56
So this device can extract
all the water that humans will need
all the water that humans will need
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所以這個設備可以簡單的從大氣層
10:00
simply from the atmosphere on Mars.
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提取人類所需的水。
10:04
Next we have to worry
about what we will breathe.
about what we will breathe.
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接下來要考慮如何呼吸的問題。
10:07
Frankly, I was really shocked
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坦率地說，
發現這已被NASA解決的，時候
發現這已被NASA解決的，時候
10:09
to find out that NASA
has this problem worked out.
has this problem worked out.
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我非常震驚。
10:12
This is a scientist at MIT
named Michael Hecht.
named Michael Hecht.
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MIT（麻省理工學院）的科學家，
邁克爾。赫克特。
邁克爾。赫克特。
10:16
And he's developed this machine, Moxie.
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他研製的這台稱為莫可西機器，
10:18
I love this thing.
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我相當喜歡它。
10:19
It's a reverse fuel cell, essentially,
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它實質上是一個反向燃料電池，
10:22
that sucks in the Martian atmosphere
and pumps out oxygen.
and pumps out oxygen.
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吸入火星大氣然後排出氧氣。
10:26
And you have to remember that CO2 --
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而且你要記住，CO2 -
10:28
carbon dioxide, which is
96 percent of Mars' atmosphere --
96 percent of Mars' atmosphere --
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二氧化碳佔了火星大氣層的96%－
10:32
CO2 is basically 78 percent oxygen.
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但CO2中的78％就是氧氣。
10:35
Now, the next big rover
that NASA sends to Mars in 2020
that NASA sends to Mars in 2020
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NASA計劃在2020年
發送到火星的大型登陸車上
發送到火星的大型登陸車上
10:40
is going to have one
of these devices aboard,
of these devices aboard,
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將安裝這樣的裝置，
10:42
and it will be able
to produce enough oxygen
to produce enough oxygen
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並且它能製造滿足一個人
10:45
to keep one person alive indefinitely.
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一生所需的氧氣量。
10:47
But the secret to this --
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這還有一個秘密 -
10:50
and that's just for testing --
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當然這還在測試階段 -
10:51
the secret to this is that this thing
was designed from the get-go
was designed from the get-go
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這組機器的設計初衷
10:55
to be scalable by a factor of 100.
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就是要能擴大100倍。
10:58
Next, what will we eat?
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好吧，我們吃什麼呢？
11:01
Well, we'll use hydroponics to grow food,
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我們將用水培法來種植糧食，
11:04
but we're not going to be able to grow
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但我們只打算種植出
11:05
more than 15 to 20 percent
of our food there,
of our food there,
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不超過我們所需
食物量的15％到20％，
食物量的15％到20％，
11:08
at least not until water is running
on the surface of Mars
on the surface of Mars
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除非水已經在火星的表面上流淌成河，
11:11
and we actually have the probability
and the capability of planting crops.
and the capability of planting crops.
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並且我們真的能種植農作物
並確保成功率。
並確保成功率。
11:16
In the meantime,
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在這之前，
11:17
most of our food will arrive from Earth,
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我們大部分的食物會從地球運送，
11:20
and it will be dried.
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是脫水乾燥食物。
11:22
And then we need some shelter.
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而且，我們需要住所。
11:25
At first we can use inflatable,
pressurized buildings
pressurized buildings
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首先，我們住在充氣加壓式建築物
11:28
as well as the landers themselves.
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以及登陸器本身。
11:31
But this really only works
during the daytime.
during the daytime.
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但是，這只在白天才能住。
11:34
There is too much solar radiation
and too much radiation from cosmic rays.
and too much radiation from cosmic rays.
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太陽輻射以及宇宙射太多。
11:39
So we really have to go underground.
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所以，我們需要住在地下。
11:41
Now, it turns out that the soil on Mars,
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目前已證實，火星大部分的土壤，
11:44
by and large,
is perfect for making bricks.
is perfect for making bricks.
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非常適合製造磚塊。
11:47
And NASA has figured this one out, too.
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NASA也已得出這樣的結論。
11:49
They're going to throw
some polymer plastic into the bricks,
some polymer plastic into the bricks,
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他們會在磚塊中加入高分子塑料，
11:52
shove them in a microwave oven,
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放在微波爐中擠壓，
11:54
and then you will be able to build
buildings with really thick walls.
buildings with really thick walls.
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然後就可以造出厚重磚牆的建築物。
11:57
Or we may choose to live underground
in caves or in lava tubes,
in caves or in lava tubes,
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或者，我們可以選擇住在地下，
洞穴或熔岩管，
洞穴或熔岩管，
12:03
of which there are plenty.
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這樣的地方火星上有很多。
12:06
And finally there's clothing.
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最後還有衣服。
12:08
On Earth we have miles
of atmosphere piled up on us,
of atmosphere piled up on us,
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在地球上，
幾英里厚的大氣層堆積在我們之上，
幾英里厚的大氣層堆積在我們之上，
12:11
which creates 15 pounds of pressure
on our bodies at all times,
on our bodies at all times,
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我們身體一直承受著15磅的壓力，
12:14
and we're constantly
pushing out against that.
pushing out against that.
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所以我們身體在不停的抵抗。
12:16
On Mars there's hardly
any atmospheric pressure.
any atmospheric pressure.
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火星上幾乎沒有任何大氣壓力。
12:20
So Dava Newman,
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所以達瓦·紐曼，
12:22
a scientist at MIT,
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這位MIT的科學家，
12:24
has created this sleek space suit.
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設計了這件光滑太空服。
12:27
It will keep us together,
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它將我們連在一起，
12:28
block radiation and keep us warm.
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阻擋輻射並保持溫暖。
12:32
So let's think about this for a minute.
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到此，我們回顧一下。
12:34
Food, shelter, clothing, water, oxygen ...
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食品，住房，衣服，水，氧氣...
12:37
we can do this.
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我們都能辦到。
12:39
We really can.
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全部都能。
12:41
But it's still a little complicated
and a little difficult.
and a little difficult.
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但實際操作難免複雜困難。
12:45
So that leads to the next big --
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所以接下來的問題 -
12:48
really big step --
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是非常關鍵的 -
12:50
in living the good life on Mars.
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如果要在火星上生活得好。
12:52
And that's terraforming the planet:
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就要改造整顆星球：
12:54
making it more like Earth,
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讓它地球化，
12:56
reengineering an entire planet.
240
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改造整顆星球，
13:00
That sounds like a lot of hubris,
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這聽起來非常的狂妄，
13:02
but the truth is
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但事實上，
13:03
that the technology to do everything
I'm about to tell you already exists.
I'm about to tell you already exists.
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我們已具備所需的科技。
13:08
First we've got to warm it up.
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首先，我們得把溫度提高。
13:10
Mars is incredibly cold
because it has a very thin atmosphere.
because it has a very thin atmosphere.
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火星太冷，
因為它的大氣層非常稀薄。
因為它的大氣層非常稀薄。
13:15
The answer lies here, at the south pole
and at the north pole of Mars,
and at the north pole of Mars,
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解決方法就在火星的兩極，
13:19
both of which are covered
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都覆蓋著
13:20
with an incredible amount
of frozen carbon dioxide --
of frozen carbon dioxide --
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大量的固態二氧化碳 -
13:23
dry ice.
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乾冰。
13:25
If we heat it up,
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如果我們把它加熱一下，
13:26
it sublimes directly into the atmosphere
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它直接氣化到大氣層，
13:29
and thickens the atmosphere
the same way it does on Earth.
the same way it does on Earth.
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用在地球上同樣的方式
來加厚大氣層。
來加厚大氣層。
13:32
And as we know,
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而我們知道，
13:33
CO2 is an incredibly
potent greenhouse gas.
potent greenhouse gas.
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CO2是一種強效溫室氣體。
13:37
Now, my favorite way of doing this
is to erect a very, very large solar sail
is to erect a very, very large solar sail
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目前，我最喜歡的加熱方式
是豎立巨大太陽帆，
是豎立巨大太陽帆，
13:43
and focus it --
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然後聚焦－
13:45
it essentially serves as a mirror --
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它實際上就是一面大鏡子 -
13:46
and focus it on the south pole
of Mars at first.
of Mars at first.
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然後先面向火星的南極。
13:49
As the planet spins, it will heat up
all that dry ice, sublime it,
all that dry ice, sublime it,
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隨著火星自轉時，
太陽帆會加熱氣化所有的乾冰，
太陽帆會加熱氣化所有的乾冰，
13:53
and it will go into the atmosphere.
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然後進入大氣層。
13:55
It actually won't take long
261
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這其實並不需要很長時間，
13:57
for the temperature
on Mars to start rising,
on Mars to start rising,
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火星地表溫度開始上升，
13:59
probably less than 20 years.
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整個過程不用20年。
14:02
Right now,
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在此之後，
14:03
on a perfect day at the equator,
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火星的夏季中期的晴天，
14:05
in the middle of summer on Mars,
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赤道的溫度，
14:07
temperatures can
actually reach 70 degrees,
actually reach 70 degrees,
267
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可居然達到70度，
14:10
but then they go down
to minus 100 at night.
to minus 100 at night.
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但夜間還是會降到零下100度。
14:12
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
14:14
What we're shooting for
is a runaway greenhouse effect:
is a runaway greenhouse effect:
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我們在專注在溫室效應試驗：
14:18
enough temperature rise
to see a lot of that ice on Mars --
to see a lot of that ice on Mars --
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溫度上升，火星上的冰 -
14:22
especially the ice in the ground -- melt.
272
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特別是地表冰層會融化。
14:26
Then we get some real magic.
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接下來，見證奇蹟的時刻到了。
14:28
As the atmosphere gets thicker,
everything gets better.
everything gets better.
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當大氣層變厚，一切會變得更好。
14:31
We get more protection from radiation,
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更多保護讓我們遠離輻射，
14:33
more atmosphere makes us warmer,
makes the planet warmer,
makes the planet warmer,
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加厚的大氣層讓整個星球變暖，
14:36
so we get running water
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我們有了流動的水，
14:38
and that makes crops possible.
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就可能實現農耕。
14:40
Then more water vapor goes into the air,
forming yet another potent greenhouse gas.
forming yet another potent greenhouse gas.
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然後更多的水蒸汽進入空氣中，
形成另一種強效溫室氣體。
形成另一種強效溫室氣體。
14:45
It will rain and it will snow on Mars.
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火星上就會下雨下雪。
14:50
And a thicker atmosphere
will create enough pressure
will create enough pressure
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更厚的大氣層將創造足夠的壓力，
14:53
so that we can
throw away those space suits.
throw away those space suits.
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我們就能脫掉太空服。
14:56
We only need about five pounds
of pressure to survive.
of pressure to survive.
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我們只需大約5磅的大氣壓就能生存。
14:59
Eventually, Mars will be made
to feel a lot like British Columbia.
to feel a lot like British Columbia.
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最終，火星感覺很像英屬哥倫比亞。
15:06
We'll still be left
with the complicated problem
with the complicated problem
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我們還有一些複雜的問題，
15:08
of making the atmosphere breathable,
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大氣轉變成適合人類呼吸的，
15:10
and frankly that could take
1,000 years to accomplish.
1,000 years to accomplish.
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坦率地說，
可能需要上千年來完成。
可能需要上千年來完成。
15:13
But humans are amazingly smart
and incredibly adaptable.
and incredibly adaptable.
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但是，
人類的智慧和適應性都是超群的。
人類的智慧和適應性都是超群的。
15:17
There is no telling what our future
technology will be able to accomplish
technology will be able to accomplish
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現在不能保證
未來不會有技術能實現
未來不會有技術能實現
15:22
and no telling what we can do
with our own bodies.
with our own bodies.
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也不能保證我們的身體
會進化成什麼樣。
會進化成什麼樣。
15:25
In biology right now,
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現在的生物學，
15:28
we are on the very verge of being
able to control our own genetics,
able to control our own genetics,
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我們即將做到能控制
我們的每一個基因，
我們的每一個基因，
15:33
what the genes
in our own bodies are doing,
in our own bodies are doing,
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在身體裡的作用，
15:36
and certainly,
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當然，
15:38
eventually, our own evolution.
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最終，控制自身的進化。
15:40
We could end up with a species
of human being on Earth
of human being on Earth
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最終在地球上的人類
15:44
that is slightly different
from the species of human beings on Mars.
from the species of human beings on Mars.
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和火星上人類即使略有不同。
15:50
But what would you do there?
How would you live?
How would you live?
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你會在火星上做什麼呢？
你將如何生活？
你將如何生活？
15:52
It's going to be
the same as it is on Earth.
the same as it is on Earth.
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和在地球上一樣。
15:55
Somebody's going to start a restaurant,
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有人要開餐廳，
15:57
somebody's going to build an iron foundry.
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有人要建鑄鐵廠，
16:00
Someone will make
documentary movies of Mars
documentary movies of Mars
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有人拍火星紀錄片，
16:03
and sell them on Earth.
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賣給地球上的人。
16:06
Some idiot will start a reality TV show.
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一些白痴開始做一檔電視真人秀節目。
16:09
(Laughter)
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（笑聲）
16:11
There will be software companies,
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這裡將會有軟件公司，
16:13
there will be hotels, there will be bars.
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也會有酒店酒吧。
16:17
This much is certain:
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有一點是肯定的：
16:19
it will be the most disruptive
event in our lifetimes,
event in our lifetimes,
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這將是我們有生之年
最爆炸性的事件，
最爆炸性的事件，
16:23
and I think it will be the most inspiring.
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這也是最鼓舞人心的。
16:26
Ask any 10-year-old girl
if she wants to go to Mars.
if she wants to go to Mars.
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問一個10歲女孩願意去火星嗎
16:30
Children who are now in elementary school
are going to choose to live there.
are going to choose to live there.
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現在讀國小的孩子將選擇是否住在那裡。
16:36
Remember when we landed
humans on the Moon?
humans on the Moon?
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回想當我們在月球登陸時
發生了什麼？
發生了什麼？
16:39
When that happened,
people looked at each other and said,
people looked at each other and said,
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人們對視，說：
16:42
"If we can do this, we can do anything."
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「如果這我們也能做到，
那我們無所不能。」
那我們無所不能。」
16:45
What are they going to think
when we actually form a colony on Mars?
when we actually form a colony on Mars?
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當我們成功建造火星殖民地時
大家會怎麼看？
大家會怎麼看？
16:50
Most importantly,
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最重要的是，
16:52
it will make us a spacefaring species.
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我們會成為在宇宙中穿梭的物種。
16:55
And that means humans will survive
no matter what happens on Earth.
no matter what happens on Earth.
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這意味著不管地球遭遇什麼，
人類都將存活下去。
人類都將存活下去。
17:01
We will never be the last of our kind.
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我們不會滅亡。
17:04
Thank you.
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謝謝。
17:05
(Applause)
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（掌聲）
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Stephen Petranek - Technology forecasterStephen Petranek untangles emerging technologies to predict which will become fixtures of our future lives -- and which could potentially save them.
Why you should listen
Writer and technologist Stephen Petranek became a reluctant doomsayer when his earliest TED Talk (“10 ways the world could end”) racked up 1.5 million views. But Petranek is in fact an optimist who believes that humanity will escape its predicaments -- literally. Within a century, he predicts that humans will have established a city of 80,000 on Mars: and that not only is that plausible, but it’s also inevitable.
Petranek is the editor-in-chief of the Breakthrough Technology Alert, a technology newsletter that ties scientific breakthroughs to investment opportunities. He's the author of the TED Book How We'll Live on Mars.
More profile about the speakerPetranek is the editor-in-chief of the Breakthrough Technology Alert, a technology newsletter that ties scientific breakthroughs to investment opportunities. He's the author of the TED Book How We'll Live on Mars.
Stephen Petranek | Speaker | TED.com