TEDSummit
Alexander Betts: Why Brexit happened -- and what to do next
Alexander Betts: Zašto se Brexit dogodio -- i što učiniti sljedeće
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Neugodno smo nesvjesni činjenice koliko su naša društva podijeljena, a Brexit je proizišao iz duboke, neispitane granice između onih koji se boje globalizacije i onih koji je prihvaćaju, kaže društveni znanstvenik Alexander Betts. Kako ćemo imenovati taj strah, kao i rastuće razočaranje političkim utemeljenjem dok se odbijamo prepustiti ksenofobiji i nacionalizmu? Pridružite se Bettsu u raspravi o 4 koraka nakon Brexita koji vode prema inkluzivnom svijetu.
Alexander Betts - Social scientist
Alexander Betts explores ways societies might empower refugees rather than pushing them to the margins. Full bio
Alexander Betts explores ways societies might empower refugees rather than pushing them to the margins. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:13
I am British.
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Ja sam Britanac.
00:15
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:17
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
00:20
Never before has the phrase
"I am British" elicited so much pity.
"I am British" elicited so much pity.
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Nikad prije fraza "Ja sam Britanac" nije
izvlačila toliko sažaljenja.
izvlačila toliko sažaljenja.
00:24
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
00:26
I come from an island
where many of us like to believe
where many of us like to believe
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Dolazim s otoka na kojemu
mnogi od nas vole vjerovati
mnogi od nas vole vjerovati
00:29
there's been a lot of continuity
over the last thousand years.
over the last thousand years.
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da postoji kontinuitet u
posljednjih nekoliko tisuća godina.
posljednjih nekoliko tisuća godina.
00:33
We tend to have historically
imposed change on others
imposed change on others
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U povijesti smo nametali
promjene drugima,
promjene drugima,
00:36
but done much less of it ourselves.
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ali malo smo ih učinili za sebe.
00:39
So it came as an immense shock to me
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Zbog toga sam doživio golem šok
00:41
when I woke up on the morning of June 24
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kad sam se probudio 24. lipnja
00:44
to discover that my country
had voted to leave the European Union,
had voted to leave the European Union,
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i otkrio da je moja zemlja
izglasala izlazak iz Europske unije,
izglasala izlazak iz Europske unije,
00:48
my Prime Minister had resigned,
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premijer je dao ostavku,
00:50
and Scotland was considering a referendum
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a Škotska je razmišljala o referendumu
00:53
that could bring to an end
the very existence of the United Kingdom.
the very existence of the United Kingdom.
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koji bi mogao dovesti do samog kraja
postojanja Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva.
postojanja Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva.
00:58
So that was an immense shock for me,
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Dakle, to je bio veliki šok za mene
01:01
and it was an immense
shock for many people,
shock for many people,
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i veliki šok za mnoge ljude,
01:05
but it was also something
that, over the following several days,
that, over the following several days,
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ali i ono što je,
u proteklih nekoliko dana,
u proteklih nekoliko dana,
01:08
created a complete political meltdown
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stvorilo potpuno političko stapanje
01:11
in my country.
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u mojoj zemlji.
01:12
There were calls for a second referendum,
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Javila se želja za drugim referendumom,
01:15
almost as if, following a sports match,
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kao da pratimo sportsku utakmicu i možemo
01:17
we could ask the opposition for a replay.
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protivničku ekipu
zamoliti za ponovno odigravanje.
zamoliti za ponovno odigravanje.
01:20
Everybody was blaming everybody else.
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Svi su krivili svakoga.
01:23
People blamed the Prime Minister
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Ljudi su krivili premijera
01:24
for calling the referendum
in the first place.
in the first place.
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za pozivanje na referendum.
01:27
They blamed the leader of the opposition
for not fighting it hard enough.
for not fighting it hard enough.
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Krivili su predvodnika opozicije
jer se nije dovoljno usprotivio.
jer se nije dovoljno usprotivio.
01:30
The young accused the old.
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Mladi su optuživali stare.
01:31
The educated blamed
the less well-educated.
the less well-educated.
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Obrazovani su okrivljavali
manje obrazovane.
manje obrazovane.
01:35
That complete meltdown was made even worse
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To potpuno stapanje
sve je učinilo još gorim
sve je učinilo još gorim
01:38
by the most tragic element of it:
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najtragičnijim elementom:
01:40
levels of xenophobia and racist abuse
in the streets of Britain
in the streets of Britain
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nivo ksenofobije i rasističkog
zlostavljanja na ulicama Britanije
zlostavljanja na ulicama Britanije
01:44
at a level that I have never seen before
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koji nikad prije nisam doživio
01:46
in my lifetime.
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u svom životu.
01:49
People are now talking about whether
my country is becoming a Little England,
my country is becoming a Little England,
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Ljudi razgovaraju o tome hoće li
moja zemlja postati Little England
moja zemlja postati Little England
01:54
or, as one of my colleagues put it,
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ili, kako je to sročio jedan
od mojih kolega,
od mojih kolega,
01:56
whether we're about to become
a 1950s nostalgia theme park
a 1950s nostalgia theme park
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hoćemo li postati nostalgični
tematski park iz 1950-ih
tematski park iz 1950-ih
02:00
floating in the Atlantic Ocean.
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koji pluta u Atlantskom oceanu.
02:02
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:05
But my question is really,
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No moje je pravo pitanje
02:08
should we have the degree of shock
that we've experienced since?
that we've experienced since?
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je li stupanj šoka koji smo
iskusili zapravo opravdan?
iskusili zapravo opravdan?
02:13
Was it something
that took place overnight?
that took place overnight?
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Je li ovo nešto što se
dogodilo preko noći?
dogodilo preko noći?
02:15
Or are there deeper structural factors
that have led us to where we are today?
that have led us to where we are today?
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Ili su nas dublji strukturalni faktori
doveli do ovoga gdje smo danas?
doveli do ovoga gdje smo danas?
02:20
So I want to take a step back
and ask two very basic questions.
and ask two very basic questions.
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Zato se želim vratiti jedan korak unazad
i zapitati se 2 ključna pitanja.
i zapitati se 2 ključna pitanja.
02:24
First, what does Brexit represent,
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Prvo, što Brexit predstavlja,
02:27
not just for my country,
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ne samo za moju zemlju,
02:29
but for all of us around the world?
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već za sve nas u svijetu?
02:32
And second, what can we do about it?
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I drugo, što možemo učiniti?
02:35
How should we all respond?
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Kako bismo svi trebali odgovoriti?
02:37
So first, what does Brexit represent?
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Dakle, prvo. Što Brexit predstavlja?
02:40
Hindsight is a wonderful thing.
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Prekasno uviđanje predivna je stvar.
02:43
Brexit teaches us many things
about our society
about our society
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Brexit nas uči mnogim stvarima
o našem društvu
o našem društvu
02:47
and about societies around the world.
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i o društvima u svijetu.
02:51
It highlights in ways
that we seem embarrassingly unaware of
that we seem embarrassingly unaware of
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Na neobične načine naglašava,
ono čega smo sramotno nesvjesni,
ono čega smo sramotno nesvjesni,
02:54
how divided our societies are.
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koliko su podijeljena naša društva.
02:56
The vote split along lines of age,
education, class and geography.
education, class and geography.
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Podjela po glasovanju duž godina,
obrazovanja, klase i geografije.
obrazovanja, klase i geografije.
03:03
Young people didn't turn out
to vote in great numbers,
to vote in great numbers,
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Mladi nisu glasali u velikim brojevima,
03:06
but those that did wanted to remain.
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ali oni koji jesu, htjeli su ostati.
03:08
Older people really wanted
to leave the European Union.
to leave the European Union.
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Stariji su ljudi zbilja htjeli
napustiti Europsku uniju.
napustiti Europsku uniju.
03:12
Geographically, it was London and Scotland
that most strongly committed
that most strongly committed
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Geografski, London i Škotska
najstrože su se obvezali
najstrože su se obvezali
03:15
to being part of the European Union,
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ostati dijelom Europske unije,
03:17
while in other parts of the country
there was very strong ambivalence.
there was very strong ambivalence.
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dok je u ostalim dijelovima zemlje
postojala snažna ambivalencija.
postojala snažna ambivalencija.
03:23
Those divisions are things we really
need to recognize and take seriously.
need to recognize and take seriously.
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Takve podjele ono su što
moramo prepoznati i shvatiti ozbiljno.
moramo prepoznati i shvatiti ozbiljno.
03:27
But more profoundly,
the vote teaches us something
the vote teaches us something
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I još dublje, glasanje nas poučava
03:30
about the nature of politics today.
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o prirodi politike u današnjici.
03:32
Contemporary politics
is no longer just about right and left.
is no longer just about right and left.
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Suvremena politika nije više
o podjeli na ljevicu i desnicu.
o podjeli na ljevicu i desnicu.
03:36
It's no longer just about tax and spend.
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Nije više o porezima i troškovima.
03:39
It's about globalization.
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Već o globalizaciji.
03:41
The fault line of contemporary politics is
between those that embrace globalization
between those that embrace globalization
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Linija kvara u suvremenoj politici je
između onih koji zagovaraju globalizaciju
između onih koji zagovaraju globalizaciju
03:46
and those that fear globalization.
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i onih koji se globalizacije boje.
03:50
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
03:55
If we look at why
those who wanted to leave --
those who wanted to leave --
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Ako pogledamo zašto oni
koji su htjeli otići --
koji su htjeli otići --
03:58
we call them "Leavers,"
as opposed to "Remainers" --
as opposed to "Remainers" --
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zovemo ih "odlazitelji",
nasuprot onih koji žele ostati --
nasuprot onih koji žele ostati --
04:00
we see two factors in the opinion polls
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vidimo dva faktora u istraživanju
javnog mnijenja
javnog mnijenja
04:03
that really mattered.
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koji su uistinu značajni.
04:04
The first was immigration,
and the second sovereignty,
and the second sovereignty,
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Prvi je imigracija, a
drugi suverenost,
drugi suverenost,
04:07
and these represent a desire for people
to take back control of their own lives
to take back control of their own lives
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oni predstavljaju želju ljudi
da vrate kontrolu nad svojim životima
da vrate kontrolu nad svojim životima
04:13
and the feeling that they
are unrepresented by politicians.
are unrepresented by politicians.
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i osjećaj da ih političari
ne predstavljaju uistinu.
ne predstavljaju uistinu.
04:18
But those ideas are ones
that signify fear and alienation.
that signify fear and alienation.
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Te ideje predstavljaju
strah i otuđenje.
strah i otuđenje.
04:23
They represent a retreat
back towards nationalism and borders
back towards nationalism and borders
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Predstavljaju povlačenje
prema nacionalizmu i granicama
prema nacionalizmu i granicama
04:29
in ways that many of us would reject.
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na način koji mnogi od nas odbijaju.
04:31
What I want to suggest is the picture
is more complicated than that,
is more complicated than that,
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Ono što želim predložiti jest
puno kompliciranija slika,
puno kompliciranija slika,
04:34
that liberal internationalists,
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kako liberalni
internacionalisti
internacionalisti
04:36
like myself, and I firmly
include myself in that picture,
include myself in that picture,
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poput mene, a čvrsto se
ubrajam u tu sliku,
ubrajam u tu sliku,
04:39
need to write ourselves
back into the picture
back into the picture
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moraju sebe ponovno
staviti u sliku
staviti u sliku
04:42
in order to understand
how we've got to where we are today.
how we've got to where we are today.
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kako bismo razumjeli kako
smo stigli tu gdje jesmo danas.
smo stigli tu gdje jesmo danas.
04:47
When we look at the voting patterns
across the United Kingdom,
across the United Kingdom,
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Kada pogledamo uzorke glasača
diljem Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva,
diljem Ujedinjenog Kraljevstva,
04:50
we can visibly see the divisions.
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lako uočavamo podjele.
04:53
The blue areas show Remain
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Plava područja označavaju ostanak,
04:55
and the red areas Leave.
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a crvena izlazak.
04:57
When I looked at this,
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Kad sam ovo pogledao,
04:59
what personally struck me
was the very little time in my life
was the very little time in my life
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ono što me osobno pogodilo
jest mala količina vremena u životu
jest mala količina vremena u životu
05:02
I've actually spent
in many of the red areas.
in many of the red areas.
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koju sam zbilja proveo
u crvenim područjima.
u crvenim područjima.
05:06
I suddenly realized that,
looking at the top 50 areas in the UK
looking at the top 50 areas in the UK
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Iznenada sam shvatio,
gledajući top 50 područja u UK
gledajući top 50 područja u UK
05:11
that have the strongest Leave vote,
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koja imaju najviše glasova za izlazak,
05:13
I've spent a combined total
of four days of my life in those areas.
of four days of my life in those areas.
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ukupno sam proveo 4 dana
svog života u tim područjima.
svog života u tim područjima.
05:19
In some of those places,
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U nekim tim mjestima
05:21
I didn't even know the names
of the voting districts.
of the voting districts.
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nisam čak znao ni imena
glasačkih okruga.
glasačkih okruga.
05:24
It was a real shock to me,
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Bio je to pravi šok za mene,
05:26
and it suggested that people like me
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a značilo je da ljudi poput mene
05:28
who think of ourselves
as inclusive, open and tolerant,
as inclusive, open and tolerant,
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koji se smatraju inkluzivnima,
otvorenima i tolerantnima,
otvorenima i tolerantnima,
05:32
perhaps don't know
our own countries and societies
our own countries and societies
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možda ni ne poznaju
vlastitu zemlju i društvo
vlastitu zemlju i društvo
05:35
nearly as well as we like to believe.
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onoliko koliko volimo vjerovati
da je tako.
da je tako.
05:38
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
05:48
And the challenge that comes from that
is we need to find a new way
is we need to find a new way
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Izazov koji nam se javlja
jest u pronalasku novog načina
jest u pronalasku novog načina
05:52
to narrate globalization to those people,
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prenošenja globalizacije tim ljudima,
05:55
to recognize that for those people who
have not necessarily been to university,
have not necessarily been to university,
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prepoznavanju da ti ljudi koji nisu
nužno pohađali sveučilište,
nužno pohađali sveučilište,
05:59
who haven't necessarily
grown up with the Internet,
grown up with the Internet,
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koji nisu nužno odrasli uz internet,
06:01
that don't get opportunities to travel,
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koji nemaju mnogo prilika za putovanja,
06:04
they may be unpersuaded
by the narrative that we find persuasive
by the narrative that we find persuasive
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njih možda nije uvjerilo
ono što mi smatramo uvjerljivim
ono što mi smatramo uvjerljivim
06:07
in our often liberal bubbles.
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u našim često liberalnim mjehurićima.
06:10
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
06:15
It means that we need to reach out
more broadly and understand.
more broadly and understand.
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To samo znači da moramo dohvatiti
šire područje i razumjeti.
šire područje i razumjeti.
06:19
In the Leave vote, a minority have peddled
the politics of fear and hatred,
the politics of fear and hatred,
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U glasovima za izlazak, manjina je prčkala
s politikom straha i mržnje
s politikom straha i mržnje
06:25
creating lies and mistrust
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stvarajući laži i nepovjerenje
06:28
around, for instance,
the idea that the vote on Europe
the idea that the vote on Europe
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poput ideje da bi glas za Europu
06:31
could reduce the number of refugees
and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,
and asylum-seekers coming to Europe,
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mogao smanjiti broj izbjeglica
i tražitelja skloništa u Europi
i tražitelja skloništa u Europi
06:35
when the vote on leaving
had nothing to do with immigration
had nothing to do with immigration
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dok glas za izlazak nije imao ništa
sa samom imigracijom
sa samom imigracijom
06:38
from outside the European Union.
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izvan Europske unije.
06:41
But for a significant majority
of the Leave voters
of the Leave voters
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No, za značajnu većinu
glasača za izlazak iz EU
glasača za izlazak iz EU
06:44
the concern was disillusionment
with the political establishment.
with the political establishment.
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najveća je briga bilo razočaranje
političkog kadra.
političkog kadra.
06:48
This was a protest vote for many,
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To je bio glas protesta za mnoge,
06:50
a sense that nobody represented them,
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osjećaj da ih nitko ne predstavlja,
06:53
that they couldn't find
a political party that spoke for them,
a political party that spoke for them,
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da ne mogu pronaći političku stranku
koja će govoriti u njihovo ime,
koja će govoriti u njihovo ime,
06:56
and so they rejected
that political establishment.
that political establishment.
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zbog toga su i odbili
taj politički kadar.
taj politički kadar.
07:01
This replicates around Europe
and much of the liberal democratic world.
and much of the liberal democratic world.
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Ovo se javlja diljem Europe,
pa i u liberalnom demokratskom svijetu.
pa i u liberalnom demokratskom svijetu.
07:06
We see it with the rise in popularity
of Donald Trump in the United States,
of Donald Trump in the United States,
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Vidimo to u rastu popularnosti
Donalda Trumpa u SAD-u,
Donalda Trumpa u SAD-u,
07:11
with the growing nationalism
of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,
of Viktor Orbán in Hungary,
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u rastućem nacionalizmu
Viktora Orbána u Mađarskoj,
Viktora Orbána u Mađarskoj,
07:15
with the increase in popularity
of Marine Le Pen in France.
of Marine Le Pen in France.
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u porastu popularnosti
Marine Le Pen u Francuskoj.
Marine Le Pen u Francuskoj.
07:20
The specter of Brexit
is in all of our societies.
is in all of our societies.
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Spektar Brexita je
u svim našim društvima.
u svim našim društvima.
07:25
So the question I think we need to ask
is my second question,
is my second question,
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Pitanje koje moramo postaviti je sljedeće,
07:28
which is how should we
collectively respond?
collectively respond?
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kako kolektivno odgovoriti na to?
07:31
For all of us who care about creating
liberal, open, tolerant societies,
liberal, open, tolerant societies,
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Za sve nas koji želimo stvoriti
liberalna, otvorena i tolerantna društva,
liberalna, otvorena i tolerantna društva,
07:37
we urgently need a new vision,
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hitno trebamo novu viziju,
07:39
a vision of a more tolerant,
inclusive globalization,
inclusive globalization,
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viziju tolerantnije i inkluzivnije
globalizacije
globalizacije
07:43
one that brings people with us
rather than leaving them behind.
rather than leaving them behind.
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koja zbližava ljude s nama,
umjesto da ih ostavlja.
umjesto da ih ostavlja.
07:48
That vision of globalization
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Takva vizija globalizacije
07:50
is one that has to start by a recognition
of the positive benefits of globalization.
of the positive benefits of globalization.
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je ona koja mora započeti prepoznavanjem
pozitivnih značajki globalizacije.
pozitivnih značajki globalizacije.
07:55
The consensus amongst economists
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Dogovor između ekonomista
07:58
is that free trade,
the movement of capital,
the movement of capital,
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jest da slobodna razmjena,
kretanje kapitala,
kretanje kapitala,
08:00
the movement of people across borders
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kretanje ljudi preko granica,
08:02
benefit everyone on aggregate.
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doprinosi svima.
08:05
The consensus amongst
international relations scholars
international relations scholars
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Slaganje međunarodnih stipendista
08:08
is that globalization
brings interdependence,
brings interdependence,
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jest da globalizacija donosi
međuovisnost
međuovisnost
08:10
which brings cooperation and peace.
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koja dovodi do suradnje i mira.
08:13
But globalization
also has redistributive effects.
also has redistributive effects.
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Ali globalizacija ima i
redistributivne efekte.
redistributivne efekte.
08:18
It creates winners and losers.
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Stvara pobjednike i gubitnike.
08:21
To take the example of migration,
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Na primjeru migracije,
08:23
we know that immigration is a net positive
for the economy as a whole
for the economy as a whole
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znamo da je imigracija neto pozitivna
za ekonomiju u cjelinu
za ekonomiju u cjelinu
08:26
under almost all circumstances.
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u skoro svim okolnostima.
08:30
But we also have to be very aware
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Ali također moramo biti svjesni
08:33
that there are
redistributive consequences,
redistributive consequences,
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da postoje redistributivne posljedice,
08:36
that importantly, low-skilled immigration
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da najvažnije, loše izvedena imigracija
08:39
can lead to a reduction in wages
for the most impoverished in our societies
for the most impoverished in our societies
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može dovesti do smanjenja plaća za
najviše osiromašene u našem društvu
najviše osiromašene u našem društvu
08:44
and also put pressure on house prices.
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te dovesti do pritiska na cijenama kuća.
08:46
That doesn't detract
from the fact that it's positive,
from the fact that it's positive,
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To ne umanjuje činjenicu
da je ona pozitivna,
da je ona pozitivna,
08:48
but it means more people
have to share in those benefits
have to share in those benefits
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ali znači da više ljudi mora
dijeliti koristi
dijeliti koristi
08:51
and recognize them.
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te ih ujedno prepoznavati.
08:55
In 2002, the former Secretary-General
of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,
of the United Nations, Kofi Annan,
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U 2002. godini, prijašnji glavni tajnik
Ujedinjenih Naroda, Kofi Annan,
Ujedinjenih Naroda, Kofi Annan,
09:00
gave a speech at Yale University,
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održao je govor na Sveučilištu Yale
09:03
and that speech was on the topic
of inclusive globalization.
of inclusive globalization.
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i taj je govor bio o
inkluzivnoj globalizaciji.
inkluzivnoj globalizaciji.
09:07
That was the speech
in which he coined that term.
in which he coined that term.
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U tom je govoru i skovao taj termin.
09:10
And he said, and I paraphrase,
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Rekao je, parafraziram,
09:12
"The glass house of globalization
has to be open to all
has to be open to all
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"Staklena kuća globalizacije mora
biti otvorena za sve
biti otvorena za sve
09:18
if it is to remain secure.
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ako želi ostati sigurna.
09:21
Bigotry and ignorance
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Netrpeljivost i neznanje
09:24
are the ugly face of exclusionary
and antagonistic globalization."
and antagonistic globalization."
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ružno su lice ekskluzivne i
antagonističke globalizacije."
antagonističke globalizacije."
09:31
That idea of inclusive globalization
was briefly revived in 2008
was briefly revived in 2008
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Ideja inkluzivne globalizacije
sažeto je revidirana 2008. godine
sažeto je revidirana 2008. godine
09:36
in a conference on progressive governance
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na konferenciji o naprednoj vladavini
09:38
involving many of the leaders
of European countries.
of European countries.
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uključujući mnoge čelnike
europskih zemalja.
europskih zemalja.
09:43
But amid austerity
and the financial crisis of 2008,
and the financial crisis of 2008,
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Međutim, zbog štednje
i financijske krize u 2008. g.
i financijske krize u 2008. g.
09:47
the concept disappeared
almost without a trace.
almost without a trace.
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cijeli je koncept nestao
gotovo bez traga.
gotovo bez traga.
09:50
Globalization has been taken
to support a neoliberal agenda.
to support a neoliberal agenda.
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Globalizacija sada podržava
neoliberalni dnevni red.
neoliberalni dnevni red.
09:54
It's perceived to be
part of an elite agenda
part of an elite agenda
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Percipira se kao dio elitnoga,
09:57
rather than something that benefits all.
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a ne kao nešto što doprinosi svima.
10:00
And it needs to be reclaimed
on a far more inclusive basis
on a far more inclusive basis
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Potrebno ju je povratiti
na puno inkluzivnijoj osnovi
na puno inkluzivnijoj osnovi
10:03
than it is today.
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od one na kojoj je danas.
10:05
So the question is,
how can we achieve that goal?
how can we achieve that goal?
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Dakle, pitanje je kako možemo
postići taj cilj.
postići taj cilj.
10:09
How can we balance on the one hand
addressing fear and alienation
addressing fear and alienation
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Kako možemo uravnotežiti
s jedne strane strah i otuđenje,
s jedne strane strah i otuđenje,
10:14
while on the other hand
refusing vehemently
refusing vehemently
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a s druge ljuto odbijanje
10:17
to give in to xenophobia and nationalism?
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ksenofobije i nacionalizma?
10:21
That is the question for all of us.
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To je pitanje za sve nas.
10:23
And I think, as a social scientist,
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A ja, kao sociolog, mislim
10:25
that social science
offers some places to start.
offers some places to start.
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da je sociologija mjesto
za dobar početak.
za dobar početak.
10:29
Our transformation has to be about
both ideas and about material change,
both ideas and about material change,
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Naša promjena mora obuhvatiti
ideje, ali i materijalne promjene,
ideje, ali i materijalne promjene,
10:34
and I want to give you four ideas
as a starting point.
as a starting point.
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a želim vam dati 4 ideje
kao početnu točku.
kao početnu točku.
10:37
The first relates to the idea
of civic education.
of civic education.
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Prva je vezana za ideju
građanskog obrazovanja.
građanskog obrazovanja.
10:42
What stands out from Brexit
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Ono što nastaje od Brexita
10:44
is the gap between public perception
and empirical reality.
and empirical reality.
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jest praznina između javnog mnijenja
i empirijske stvarnosti.
i empirijske stvarnosti.
10:48
It's been suggested that we've moved
to a postfactual society,
to a postfactual society,
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Spominje se da smo napredovali do
posliječinjeničnog društva,
posliječinjeničnog društva,
10:52
where evidence and truth no longer matter,
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gdje iznenada dokazi i istina nisu važni,
10:54
and lies have equal status
to the clarity of evidence.
to the clarity of evidence.
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a laži imaju jednak status
kao i jasnoća dokaza.
kao i jasnoća dokaza.
10:58
So how can we --
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Dakle, kako možemo --
11:00
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
11:02
How can we rebuild respect for truth
and evidence into our liberal democracies?
and evidence into our liberal democracies?
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Kako možemo izgraditi poštivanje istine
i dokaza u liberalnoj demokraciji?
i dokaza u liberalnoj demokraciji?
11:08
It has to begin with education,
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Moramo započeti s obrazovanjem,
11:10
but it has to start with the recognition
that there are huge gaps.
that there are huge gaps.
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s prepoznavanjem da postoje
velike praznine.
velike praznine.
11:14
In 2014, the pollster Ipsos MORI
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U 2014. pollster Ipsos MORI
11:18
published a survey
on attitudes to immigration,
on attitudes to immigration,
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objavio je pregled mišljenja o imigraciji
11:21
and it showed that as numbers
of immigrants increase,
of immigrants increase,
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te pokazao da s rastućim
brojem imigranata
brojem imigranata
11:26
so public concern
with immigration also increases,
with immigration also increases,
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raste i interes javnosti
za imigraciju,
za imigraciju,
11:29
although it obviously
didn't unpack causality,
didn't unpack causality,
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iako to očito
ne dokazuje uzročnost,
ne dokazuje uzročnost,
11:31
because this could equally be to do
not so much with numbers
not so much with numbers
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jer ovo nema toliko veze
sa samim brojevima,
sa samim brojevima,
11:34
but the political
and media narrative around it.
and media narrative around it.
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već s političkom i medijskom pričom.
11:37
But the same survey also revealed
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Međutim, isti je pregled otkrio
11:41
huge public misinformation
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veliko dezinformiranje javnosti
11:43
and misunderstanding
about the nature of immigration.
about the nature of immigration.
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i nerazumijevanje prirode imigracije.
11:47
For example, in these attitudes
in the United Kingdom,
in the United Kingdom,
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Na primjer, u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu,
11:50
the public believed that levels of asylum
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javnost je vjerovala da je broj utočišta
11:53
were a greater proportion
of immigration than they were,
of immigration than they were,
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veći od broja imigranata,
11:56
but they also believed
the levels of educational migration
the levels of educational migration
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a vjerovali su i da je broj
migracija povezanih s obrazovanjem
migracija povezanih s obrazovanjem
12:00
were far lower as a proportion
of overall migration
of overall migration
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puno niži u cjelokupnoj migraciji
12:03
than they actually are.
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nego što je to uistinu.
12:05
So we have to address this misinformation,
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Dakle, moramo otkriti dezinformacije,
12:07
the gap between perception and reality
on key aspects of globalization.
on key aspects of globalization.
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prazninu između percepcije i stvarnosti
kao ključni aspekt globalizacije.
kao ključni aspekt globalizacije.
12:12
And that can't just be something
that's left to our schools,
that's left to our schools,
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I to ne može biti nešto što
će se odnositi samo na škole,
će se odnositi samo na škole,
12:15
although that's important
to begin at an early age.
to begin at an early age.
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iako je važno započeti
s tim u ranoj dobi.
s tim u ranoj dobi.
12:17
It has to be about lifelong
civic participation
civic participation
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Naglasak treba biti na životnom
građanskom sudjelovanju
građanskom sudjelovanju
12:20
and public engagement
that we all encourage as societies.
that we all encourage as societies.
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i javnom uključivanju
koje svi potičemo u našem društvu.
koje svi potičemo u našem društvu.
12:26
The second thing
that I think is an opportunity
that I think is an opportunity
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Sljedeća stvar za koju vjerujem
da je prilika za nas
da je prilika za nas
12:28
is the idea to encourage more interaction
across diverse communities.
across diverse communities.
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jest ideja ohrabrivanja interakcije
između raznih zajednica.
između raznih zajednica.
12:33
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
12:37
One of the things that stands out
for me very strikingly,
for me very strikingly,
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Jedna od stvari koja je
veoma upadljiva,
veoma upadljiva,
12:40
looking at immigration attitudes
in the United Kingdom,
in the United Kingdom,
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promatrajući stvavove o imigraciji
u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu,
u Ujedinjenom Kraljevstvu,
12:43
is that ironically,
the regions of my country
the regions of my country
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jest, ironično, da
regije u mojoj zemlji
regije u mojoj zemlji
12:46
that are the most tolerant of immigrants
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koje su najtolerantnije
prema imigrantima
prema imigrantima
12:48
have the highest numbers of immigrants.
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imaju najveći broj imigranata.
12:51
So for instance, London and the Southeast
have the highest numbers of immigrants,
have the highest numbers of immigrants,
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Na primjer, London i Jugoistok
imaju najveći broj imigranata,
imaju najveći broj imigranata,
12:55
and they are also by far
the most tolerant areas.
the most tolerant areas.
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a ujedno su i najtolerantnija područja.
12:58
It's those areas of the country
that have the lowest levels of immigration
that have the lowest levels of immigration
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Ona područja u zemlji koja
imaju najniže nivoe imigracije
imaju najniže nivoe imigracije
13:02
that actually are the most exclusionary
and intolerant towards migrants.
and intolerant towards migrants.
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zapravo su najviše isključujuća
i netolerantna prema migrantima.
i netolerantna prema migrantima.
13:07
So we need to encourage exchange programs.
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Dakle, treba poticati programe razmjene.
13:09
We need to ensure that older generations
who maybe can't travel
who maybe can't travel
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Potrebno je starijim generacijama
koje možda ne mogu putovati
koje možda ne mogu putovati
13:13
get access to the Internet.
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osigurati pristup internetu.
13:15
We need to encourage,
even on a local and national level,
even on a local and national level,
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Potrebno je osigurati, barem
na lokalnom i nacionalnom nivou,
na lokalnom i nacionalnom nivou,
13:18
more movement, more participation,
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više kretanja, više uključivanja,
13:20
more interaction
with people who we don't know
with people who we don't know
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više interakcije s ljudima
koje ne poznajemo
koje ne poznajemo
13:22
and whose views we might
not necessarily agree with.
not necessarily agree with.
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i s čijim se pogledima možda
nećemo nužno slagati.
nećemo nužno slagati.
13:26
The third thing that I think
is crucial, though,
is crucial, though,
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Treća je stvar presudna,
13:29
and this is really fundamental,
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i najtemeljitija,
13:31
is we have to ensure that everybody shares
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potrebno je osigurati svima
mogućnost da dijele
mogućnost da dijele
13:33
in the benefits of globalization.
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koristi globalizacije.
13:36
This illustration from the Financial Times
post-Brexit is really striking.
post-Brexit is really striking.
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Ilustracije iz Financial Timesa o
post-Brexitu su veoma upadljive.
post-Brexitu su veoma upadljive.
13:41
It shows tragically that those people
who voted to leave the European Union
who voted to leave the European Union
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Pokazuju da su oni koji su glasali
za izlazak iz EU, tragično
za izlazak iz EU, tragično
13:45
were those who actually
benefited the most materially
benefited the most materially
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oni koji su najviše
profitirali materijalno
profitirali materijalno
13:47
from trade with the European Union.
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iz razmjene s Europskom unijom.
13:51
But the problem is
that those people in those areas
that those people in those areas
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Problem je u tome što ljudi
u tim područjima
u tim područjima
13:53
didn't perceive themselves
to be beneficiaries.
to be beneficiaries.
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sebe ne percipiraju kao one
koji imaju koristi.
koji imaju koristi.
13:56
They didn't believe that they
were actually getting access
were actually getting access
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Nisu vjerovali da su imali pristup
13:59
to material benefits of increased trade
and increased mobility around the world.
and increased mobility around the world.
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materijalnoj koristi i povećanoj razmjeni
te povećanoj mobilnosti diljem svijeta.
te povećanoj mobilnosti diljem svijeta.
14:05
I work on questions
predominantly to do with refugees,
predominantly to do with refugees,
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Uglavnom se bavim pitanjima
vezanim uz izbjeglice
vezanim uz izbjeglice
14:09
and one of the ideas
I spent a lot of my time preaching,
I spent a lot of my time preaching,
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i jedna od ideja o kojoj
sam mnogo govorio,
sam mnogo govorio,
14:12
mainly to developing countries
around the world,
around the world,
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uglavnom diljem svijeta
u zemljama u razvoju,
u zemljama u razvoju,
14:15
is that in order to encourage
the integration of refugees,
the integration of refugees,
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jest da, kako bismo ohrabrili
integraciju izbjeglica,
integraciju izbjeglica,
14:18
we can't just benefit
the refugee populations,
the refugee populations,
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ne možemo doprinositi samo
populaciji izbjeglica,
populaciji izbjeglica,
14:21
we also have to address the concerns
of the host communities in local areas.
of the host communities in local areas.
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već imati na umu i brige
domaćih zajednica u lokalnim područjima.
domaćih zajednica u lokalnim područjima.
14:27
But in looking at that,
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Gledajući na to,
14:28
one of the policy prescriptions
is that we have to provide
is that we have to provide
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jedan od političkih recepata
jest osigurati
jest osigurati
14:31
disproportionately better
education facilities, health facilities,
education facilities, health facilities,
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disproporcionalno bolje
obrazovne ustanove, zdravstvene ustanove,
obrazovne ustanove, zdravstvene ustanove,
14:35
access to social services
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pristup socijalnim službama,
14:37
in those regions of high immigration
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u regijama imigracije
14:39
to address the concerns
of those local populations.
of those local populations.
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kako bismo imenovali probleme
lokalne populacije.
lokalne populacije.
14:42
But while we encourage that
around the developing world,
around the developing world,
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Međutim, dok to potičemo
u razvijenim zemljama,
u razvijenim zemljama,
14:45
we don't take those lessons home
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ne preuzimamo te lekcije doma
14:46
and incorporate them in our own societies.
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i ne uključujemo ih u svoje društvo.
14:50
Furthermore, if we're going
to really take seriously
to really take seriously
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Nadalje, ako ćemo uzeti za ozbiljno
14:53
the need to ensure people share
in the economic benefits,
in the economic benefits,
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potrebu osiguravanja ljudima
dijeljenje ekonomskih dobara,
dijeljenje ekonomskih dobara,
14:56
our businesses and corporations
need a model of globalization
need a model of globalization
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naše tvrtke i korporacije
trebaju model globalizacije
trebaju model globalizacije
15:00
that recognizes that they, too,
have to take people with them.
have to take people with them.
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koji prepoznaje da i oni
moraju uključiti ljude.
moraju uključiti ljude.
15:05
The fourth and final idea
I want to put forward
I want to put forward
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Četvrta i posljednja ideja
koju želim istaknuti
koju želim istaknuti
15:08
is an idea that we need
more responsible politics.
more responsible politics.
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jest ideja da nam je potrebna
odgovorna politika.
odgovorna politika.
15:12
There's very little
social science evidence
social science evidence
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Malo je socioloških dokaza
15:15
that compares attitudes on globalization.
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koji uspoređuju stavove o globalizaciji.
15:18
But from the surveys that do exist,
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Ali iz istraživanja koja postoje,
15:20
what we can see is there's huge variation
across different countries
across different countries
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možemo uočiti veliku razliku
između različitih zemalja
između različitih zemalja
15:25
and time periods in those countries
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i vremenskih perioda u tim zemljama
15:27
for attitudes and tolerance
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za stavove i toleranciju
15:29
of questions like migration
and mobility on the one hand
and mobility on the one hand
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o pitanju migracije i mobilnosti
s jedne strane
s jedne strane
15:32
and free trade on the other.
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te slobodne razmjene s druge.
15:34
But one hypothesis that I think emerges
from a cursory look at that data
from a cursory look at that data
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Ali jedna hipoteza koja proizlazi
iz pogleda na te podatke
iz pogleda na te podatke
15:40
is the idea that polarized societies
are far less tolerant of globalization.
are far less tolerant of globalization.
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jest ideja da su polarizirana društva
manje tolerantna prema globalizaciji.
manje tolerantna prema globalizaciji.
15:46
It's the societies
like Sweden in the past,
like Sweden in the past,
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Društva poput Švedske u prošlosti,
15:49
like Canada today,
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poput Kanade danas,
15:50
where there is a centrist politics,
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u kojima postoji centralistička politika,
15:52
where right and left work together,
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u kojima desnica i ljevica surađuju,
15:54
that we encourage supportive attitudes
towards globalization.
towards globalization.
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potiču se i stavovi potpore
prema globalizaciji.
prema globalizaciji.
15:58
And what we see around the world today
is a tragic polarization,
is a tragic polarization,
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Ono što danas vidimo diljem svijeta
jest tragična polarizacija,
jest tragična polarizacija,
16:02
a failure to have dialogue
between the extremes in politics,
between the extremes in politics,
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neuspjeh u uspostavljanju dijaloga
između ekstrema u politici,
između ekstrema u politici,
16:05
and a gap in terms
of that liberal center ground
of that liberal center ground
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i praznina u pojmovima
liberalnog centra
liberalnog centra
16:08
that can encourage communication
and a shared understanding.
and a shared understanding.
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koji može potaknuti komunikaciju
i međusobno razumijevanje.
i međusobno razumijevanje.
16:12
We might not achieve that today,
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Možda to nećemo postići danas,
16:13
but at the very least we have to call
upon our politicians and our media
upon our politicians and our media
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međutim, moramo pozvati
sve političare i medije
sve političare i medije
16:17
to drop a language of fear
and be far more tolerant of one another.
and be far more tolerant of one another.
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da otpuste jezik straha i budu
tolerantniji jedni prema drugima.
tolerantniji jedni prema drugima.
16:21
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
16:29
These ideas are very tentative,
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Ove su ideje privremene,
16:32
and that's in part because this needs
to be an inclusive and shared project.
to be an inclusive and shared project.
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zato što ovo dijelom mora biti
inkluzivni projekt.
inkluzivni projekt.
16:38
I am still British.
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Još sam uvijek Britanac.
16:40
I am still European.
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Još sam uvijek Europljanin.
16:43
I am still a global citizen.
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Još sam uvijek globalni građanin.
16:47
For those of us who believe
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Za one od nas koji vjeruju
16:49
that our identities
are not mutually exclusive,
are not mutually exclusive,
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da naši identiteti nisu
međusobno isključivi,
međusobno isključivi,
16:53
we have to all work together
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moramo raditi svi zajedno
16:56
to ensure that globalization
takes everyone with us
takes everyone with us
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da bismo osigurali da nas
globalizacije sve povede
globalizacije sve povede
17:00
and doesn't leave people behind.
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i ne ostavi nikoga od nas.
17:02
Only then will we truly reconcile
democracy and globalization.
democracy and globalization.
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Samo ćemo tada moći pomiriti
demokraciju i globalizaciju.
demokraciju i globalizaciju.
17:07
Thank you.
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Hvala vam.
17:09
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Alexander Betts - Social scientistAlexander Betts explores ways societies might empower refugees rather than pushing them to the margins.
Why you should listen
In media and in public debate, refugees are routinely portrayed as a burden. Professor Alexander Betts argues that refugees, who represent a wide spectrum of professional backgrounds, are in fact an untapped resource that could benefit nations willing to welcome them into their economies.
Betts is the director of the Refugee Studies Centre at the University of Oxford, where he spearheads research on refugee and other forced migrant populations. His book, Survival Migration, explores the predicaments of people who are fleeing disaster yet fall outside legal definitions of refugee status.
Alexander Betts | Speaker | TED.com