TED2015
Dan Ariely: How equal do we want the world to be? You'd be surprised
Dan Ariely: Dan Ariely: Hvor lige ønsker vi, at verden er? Du bliver overrasket.
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Nyheden om samfundets voksende ulighed gør os alle utilpasse. Men hvorfor?
Dan Ariely afslører ny, overraskende research omkring hvad, vi synes er fair, når det gælder distributionen af rigdom i vores samfund, og hvordan det klarer sig i forhold til virkelige statistikker.
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:12
It would be nice to be
objective in life,
objective in life,
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Det ville på mange måder
være dejligt at være objektiv i livet
være dejligt at være objektiv i livet
00:15
in many ways.
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00:17
The problem is that we have
these color-tinted glasses
these color-tinted glasses
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Problemet er, at vi bærer
de her tonede briller
de her tonede briller
00:20
as we look at all kinds of situations.
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i alle slags situationer.
00:25
For example, think about
something as simple as beer.
something as simple as beer.
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Tænk for eksempel på
noget så simpelt som øl.
noget så simpelt som øl.
00:29
If I gave you a few beers to taste
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Gav jeg dig nogle
forskellige øl at smage
forskellige øl at smage
00:31
and I asked you to rate them
on intensity and bitterness,
on intensity and bitterness,
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og bad jer vurdere dem
på intensitet og bitterhed,
på intensitet og bitterhed,
00:35
different beers would occupy
different space.
different space.
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ville forskellige øl optage
forskellige pladser.
forskellige pladser.
00:39
But what if we tried
to be objective about it?
to be objective about it?
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Men hvad hvis vi forsøgte
at være objektive omkring det?
at være objektive omkring det?
00:41
In the case of beer,
it would be very simple.
it would be very simple.
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I tilfældet med øl ville
det være ret simpelt.
det være ret simpelt.
00:43
What if we did a blind taste?
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Men hvad hvis vi lavede en blindsmagning?
00:46
Well, if we did the same thing,
you tasted the same beer,
you tasted the same beer,
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Gjorde vi det samme, og I
smagte den samme øl,
smagte den samme øl,
00:48
now in the blind taste,
things would look slightly different.
things would look slightly different.
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men nu i en blindsmagning,
så ville det se noget anderledes ud.
så ville det se noget anderledes ud.
00:52
Most of the beers will go into one place.
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De fleste af øllene ville placere sig ens.
00:55
You will basically not
be able to distinguish them,
be able to distinguish them,
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I ville faktisk ikke kunne
skelne mellem dem,
skelne mellem dem,
00:57
and the exception, of course,
will be Guinness.
will be Guinness.
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med undtagelsen af Guinness, selvfølgelig.
01:00
(Laughter)
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(Latter)
01:02
Similarly, we can think about physiology.
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Ligeledes med fysiologi.
01:05
What happens when people expect
something from their physiology?
something from their physiology?
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Hvad sker der, når folk forventer
noget af deres fysiologi?
noget af deres fysiologi?
01:08
For example, we sold people
pain medications.
pain medications.
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For eksempel solgte vi
smertestillende til folk.
smertestillende til folk.
01:11
Some people, we told them
the medications were expensive.
the medications were expensive.
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Til nogen fortalte vi,
at medicinen var dyr.
at medicinen var dyr.
01:13
Some people, we told them it was cheap.
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Til nogen fortalte vi, den var billig.
01:15
And the expensive
pain medication worked better.
pain medication worked better.
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Og det dyre smertestillende virkede bedre.
01:18
It relieved more pain from people,
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Den lettede smerten bedre hos folk,
01:21
because expectations
do change our physiology.
do change our physiology.
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fordi forventninger laver
forandringer i vores fysiologi.
forandringer i vores fysiologi.
01:24
And of course, we all know that in sports,
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Og selvfølgelig, ved vi alle, at i sport,
01:26
if you are a fan of a particular team,
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hvis man er fan af et bestemt hold,
01:28
you can't help but see the game
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kan man ikke undgå at se spillet
01:31
develop from the perspective of your team.
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udfolde sig fra det holds perspektiv.
01:34
So all of those are cases in which
our preconceived notions
our preconceived notions
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Alle disse er eksempler, hvor der
er forudbestemte meninger,
er forudbestemte meninger,
01:38
and our expectations color our world.
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og vore forventninger farver vores verden.
01:42
But what happened
in more important questions?
in more important questions?
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Men hvad skete der
med vigtigere spørgsmål?
med vigtigere spørgsmål?
01:45
What happened with questions
that had to do with social justice?
that had to do with social justice?
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Hvad med spørgsmål, der
omhandlede social retfærdighed?
omhandlede social retfærdighed?
01:49
So we wanted to think about
what is the blind tasting version
what is the blind tasting version
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Vi havde lyst til at tænke over,
hvordan blindsmagningsversionen
hvordan blindsmagningsversionen
01:52
for thinking about inequality?
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for ulighed er.
01:55
So we started looking at inequality,
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Så vi startede med at kigge på ulighed
01:57
and we did some large-scale surveys
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og foretog nogle omfattende undersøgelser
01:59
around the U.S. and other countries.
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rundt omkring i USA og andre lande.
02:02
So we asked two questions:
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Vi spurgte om to ting:
02:04
Do people know what kind of
level of inequality we have?
level of inequality we have?
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Ved folk hvilket niveau
af ulighed, vi har?
af ulighed, vi har?
02:07
And then, what level of inequality
do we want to have?
do we want to have?
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Og så; hvilket niveau
af ulighed ønsker vi?
af ulighed ønsker vi?
02:11
So let's think about the first question.
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Lad os overveje det første spørgsmål.
02:14
Imagine I took all the people in the U.S.
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Forestil jer, at jeg tog alle folk i USA
02:16
and I sorted them from
the poorest on the right
the poorest on the right
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og sorterede dem fra
de fattigste til højre
de fattigste til højre
02:19
to the richest on the left,
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til de rigeste til venstre
02:21
and then I divided them into five buckets:
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og så delte dem op i fem grupper:
02:24
the poorest 20 percent,
the next 20 percent,
the next 20 percent,
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De fattigste 20 %, de næste 20 %,
02:26
the next, the next,
and the richest 20 percent.
and the richest 20 percent.
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de næste, de næste, og de rigeste 20 %.
02:29
And then I asked you to tell me
how much wealth do you think
how much wealth do you think
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Og så bad jeg jer om at
vise mig, hvor meget velstand,
vise mig, hvor meget velstand,
02:32
is concentrated in each of those buckets.
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der er koncentreret i
hver af disse grupper.
hver af disse grupper.
02:35
So to make it simpler,
imagine I ask you to tell me,
imagine I ask you to tell me,
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For at gøre det nemmere,
forestil jer, at det var
forestil jer, at det var
02:37
how much wealth do you think
is concentrated
is concentrated
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hvor meget velstand, der er koncentreret
02:40
in the bottom two buckets,
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i de to nederste grupper;
02:42
the bottom 40 percent?
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De nederste 40 %.
02:44
Take a second. Think about it
and have a number.
and have a number.
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Tænk et øjeblik. Tænk over det,
og vælg et tal.
og vælg et tal.
02:47
Usually we don't think.
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Normalt tænker vi ikke.
02:49
Think for a second,
have a real number in your mind.
have a real number in your mind.
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Tænk et øjeblik og hav
et rigtigt tal klar.
et rigtigt tal klar.
02:51
You have it?
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Har I det?
02:53
Okay, here's what lots
of Americans tell us.
of Americans tell us.
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Okay, her er hvad, mange
amerikanere siger til os.
amerikanere siger til os.
02:56
They think that the bottom 20 percent
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De tror, at de nederste 20 %
02:58
has about 2.9 percent of the wealth,
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har omkring 2,9 % af velstande,
03:00
the next group has 6.4,
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den næste gruppe har 6,4 %,
03:02
so together it's slightly more than nine.
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altså tilsammen lidt mere end ni.
03:05
The next group, they say, has 12 percent,
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Den næste gruppe, siger de, har 12 %,
03:08
20 percent,
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20 %,
03:10
and the richest 20 percent, people think
has 58 percent of the wealth.
has 58 percent of the wealth.
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og de rigeste 20 %, tror folk, har
omkring 58 % af velstanden.
omkring 58 % af velstanden.
03:15
You can see how this relates
to what you thought.
to what you thought.
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I kan se hvordan det
relaterer til det, I troede.
relaterer til det, I troede.
03:18
Now, what's reality?
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Hvad er realiteten så?
03:19
Reality is slightly different.
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Virkeligheden er en smule anderledes.
03:21
The bottom 20 percent
has 0.1 percent of the wealth.
has 0.1 percent of the wealth.
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De nederste 20 % har 0,1 % af velstanden.
03:25
The next 20 percent
has 0.2 percent of the wealth.
has 0.2 percent of the wealth.
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De næste 20 % har 0,2 % af velstanden.
03:28
Together, it's 0.3.
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Tilsammen er det 0,3.
03:30
The next group has 3.9,
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Den næste gruppe har 3,9.
03:34
11.3,
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11,3.
03:36
and the richest group
has 84-85 percent of the wealth.
has 84-85 percent of the wealth.
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Og den rigeste gruppe
har 84-85 % af velstanden.
har 84-85 % af velstanden.
03:42
So what we actually have
and what we think we have
and what we think we have
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Så hvad vi rent faktisk har,
og hvad, vi tror, vi har,
og hvad, vi tror, vi har,
03:45
are very different.
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er meget forskellige.
03:47
What about what we want?
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Hvad er det så, vi ønsker?
03:49
How do we even figure this out?
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Hvordan fandt vi overhovedet ud af det?
03:51
So to look at this,
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Så for at finde ud af dette,
03:52
to look at what we really want,
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af hvad vi virkelig ønsker,
03:54
we thought about
the philosopher John Rawls.
the philosopher John Rawls.
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tænkte vi på filosoffen John Rawls.
03:57
If you remember John Rawls,
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Hvis I husker John Rawls,
03:59
he had this notion
of what's a just society.
of what's a just society.
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så havde han den her idé om,
hvad et retfærdigt samfund er.
hvad et retfærdigt samfund er.
04:02
He said a just society
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Han sagde, et
retfærdigt samfund
retfærdigt samfund
04:04
is a society that if
you knew everything about it,
you knew everything about it,
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er et samfund hvor, hvis man
vidste alt omkring det,
vidste alt omkring det,
04:06
you would be willing
to enter it in a random place.
to enter it in a random place.
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så ville man være villig til at
komme ind i det et vilkårligt sted.
komme ind i det et vilkårligt sted.
04:09
And it's a beautiful definition,
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Og det er en smuk definition,
04:10
because if you're wealthy,
you might want the wealthy
you might want the wealthy
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for hvis man er rig vil man
måske have de rige
måske have de rige
til at have flere penge; de fattige færre.
04:13
to have more money, the poor to have less.
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04:15
If you're poor, you might
want more equality.
want more equality.
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Er man fattig, ønsker man
måske mere lighed.
måske mere lighed.
04:17
But if you're going
to go into that society
to go into that society
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Men hvis man kan komme ind i det samfund
04:19
in every possible situation,
and you don't know,
and you don't know,
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i hver en mulig situation,
og man ikke ved hvilken,
og man ikke ved hvilken,
04:22
you have to consider all the aspects.
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så tvinges man til at
overveje alle aspekter.
overveje alle aspekter.
04:24
It's a little bit like blind tasting
in which you don't know
in which you don't know
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Det er lidt ligesom blindsmagning,
hvor man ikke ved,
hvor man ikke ved,
04:27
what the outcome will be
when you make a decision,
when you make a decision,
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hvad udfaldet vil være,
når man tager en beslutning,
når man tager en beslutning,
04:30
and Rawls called this
the "veil of ignorance."
the "veil of ignorance."
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og Rawls kaldte det "uvidenhedens slør".
04:34
So, we took another group,
a large group of Americans,
a large group of Americans,
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Så vi tog en anden gruppe,
en stor gruppe af amerikanere,
en stor gruppe af amerikanere,
04:37
and we asked them the question
in the veil of ignorance.
in the veil of ignorance.
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og vi spurgte dem et spørgsmål
om uvidenhedens slør:
om uvidenhedens slør:
04:40
What are the characteristics of a country
that would make you want to join it,
that would make you want to join it,
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Hvad er karakteristikaene for et land,
der ville få dig til at tilslutte dig det,
der ville få dig til at tilslutte dig det,
04:44
knowing that you could end
randomly at any place?
randomly at any place?
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velvidende om at du kunne ende op
hvilket som helst sted i det?
hvilket som helst sted i det?
04:47
And here is what we got.
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Her er hvad, vi endte op med.
04:49
What did people want to give
to the first group,
to the first group,
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Hvad ville folk give
til den første gruppe,
til den første gruppe,
04:51
the bottom 20 percent?
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de nederste 20 %?
04:53
They wanted to give them
about 10 percent of the wealth.
about 10 percent of the wealth.
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De havde lyst til at give dem
ca. 10 % af velstanden.
ca. 10 % af velstanden.
04:56
The next group, 14 percent of the wealth,
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Den næste gruppe 14 % af velstanden,
04:59
21, 22 and 32.
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21, 22 og 32.
05:04
Now, nobody in our sample
wanted full equality.
wanted full equality.
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Ingen i vores stikprøve
ønskede fuld ligestilling.
ønskede fuld ligestilling.
05:07
Nobody thought that socialism
is a fantastic idea in our sample.
is a fantastic idea in our sample.
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Ingen i vores stikprøve mente,
at socialisme er en fantastisk ide.
at socialisme er en fantastisk ide.
05:12
But what does it mean?
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Men hvad betyder det?
05:13
It means that we have this knowledge gap
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Det betyder, at vi har en videnskløft
05:15
between what we have
and what we think we have,
and what we think we have,
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mellem hvad vi har,
og hvad vi tror vi har,
og hvad vi tror vi har,
05:18
but we have at least as big a gap
between what we think is right
between what we think is right
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men vi har et mindst lige så stort hul
mellem hvad vi mener er rigtigt,
mellem hvad vi mener er rigtigt,
05:22
to what we think we have.
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og hvad vi tror vi har.
05:24
Now, we can ask these questions,
by the way, not just about wealth.
by the way, not just about wealth.
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Vi kan ikke kun stille disse spørgsmål
omkring økonomisk velstand.
omkring økonomisk velstand.
05:28
We can ask it about other things as well.
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Vi kan også stille dem omkring andre ting.
05:30
So for example, we asked people
from different parts of the world
from different parts of the world
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For eksempel spurgte vi folk
fra forskellige dele af verden
fra forskellige dele af verden
05:34
about this question,
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om dette -
05:36
people who are liberals and conservatives,
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Liberale og konservative -
05:38
and they gave us basically
the same answer.
the same answer.
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og de gav os stort set det samme svar.
05:40
We asked rich and poor,
they gave us the same answer,
they gave us the same answer,
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Vi spurgte rig og fattig,
de gav os det samme svar.
de gav os det samme svar.
05:43
men and women,
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Mænd og kvinder,
05:44
NPR listeners and Forbes readers.
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NPR-lyttere og læsere af Forbes.
05:47
We asked people in England,
Australia, the U.S. --
Australia, the U.S. --
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Vi spurgte folk i England,
Australien, USA -
Australien, USA -
05:50
very similar answers.
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meget ens svar.
05:52
We even asked different
departments of a university.
departments of a university.
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Vi spurgte endda forskellige
afdelinger på et universitet.
afdelinger på et universitet.
05:54
We went to Harvard and we checked
almost every department,
almost every department,
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Vi tog til Harvard og tjekkede
næsten hver eneste afdeling,
næsten hver eneste afdeling,
05:57
and in fact, from Harvard Business School,
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og faktisk på Harvard Business School,
05:59
where a few people wanted the wealthy
to have more and the [poor] to have less,
to have more and the [poor] to have less,
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hvor nogle få ønskede at de velhavende
skulle have mere og de rigeste mindre,
skulle have mere og de rigeste mindre,
var ligheden forbløffende.
06:03
the similarity was astonishing.
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06:05
I know some of you went
to Harvard Business School.
to Harvard Business School.
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Jeg ved, at nogen af jer gik
på Harvard Business School.
på Harvard Business School.
06:08
We also asked this question
about something else.
about something else.
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Vi spurgte også spørgsmålet
omkring noget andet.
omkring noget andet.
06:12
We asked, what about the ratio
of CEO pay to unskilled workers?
of CEO pay to unskilled workers?
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Vi spurgte omkring forholdet mellem direk-
tørers løn og de ufaglærte arbejderes.
tørers løn og de ufaglærte arbejderes.
06:17
So you can see what
people think is the ratio,
people think is the ratio,
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Så I kan se, hvad folk
troede forholdet var.
troede forholdet var.
06:20
and then we can ask the question,
what do they think should be the ratio?
what do they think should be the ratio?
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Vi spurgte dem som, hvad de
mente forholdet burde være.
mente forholdet burde være.
06:24
And then we can ask, what is reality?
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Og så om hvad realiteten var.
06:26
What is reality? And you could say,
well, it's not that bad, right?
well, it's not that bad, right?
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Hvad er realiteten? Og man kan sige,
at det er da ikke så slemt, vel?
at det er da ikke så slemt, vel?
06:30
The red and the yellow
are not that different.
are not that different.
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De røde og gule er ikke så forskellige.
06:32
But the fact is, it's because
I didn't draw them on the same scale.
I didn't draw them on the same scale.
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Men faktum er, at det er fordi, jeg ikke
har tegnet dem på den samme skala.
har tegnet dem på den samme skala.
06:38
It's hard to see, there's yellow
and blue in there.
and blue in there.
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Det er svært at se, der er
gult og blåt derinde.
gult og blåt derinde.
06:42
So what about other outcomes of wealth?
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Så hvad med andre udfald af velstand?
06:44
Wealth is not just about wealth.
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Velstand er ikke kun om velstand.
06:46
We asked, what about things like health?
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Vi spurgte: Hvad med ting som helbred?
06:48
What about availability
of prescription medication?
of prescription medication?
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Hvad med tilgængeligheden
af receptpligtig medicin?
af receptpligtig medicin?
06:52
What about life expectancy?
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Hvad med forventet levealder?
06:54
What about life expectancy of infants?
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Hvad med spædbørns forventede levealder?
06:57
How do we want this to be distributed?
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Hvordan ønsker vi, at det fordeles?
06:59
What about education for young people?
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Hvad med uddannelse til unge?
07:02
And for older people?
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Og til ældre?
07:04
And across all of those things,
what we learned was that people
what we learned was that people
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Og gennem alle disse ting
lærte vi, at folk
lærte vi, at folk
07:07
don't like inequality of wealth,
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ikke kan lide ulighed i velstand,
07:10
but there's other things where inequality,
which is an outcome of wealth,
which is an outcome of wealth,
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men der er andre ting, hvor ulighed,
hvilket er et resultat af velstand,
hvilket er et resultat af velstand,
07:13
is even more aversive to them:
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virker endnu mere generende for dem:
07:15
for example, inequality
in health or education.
in health or education.
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For eksempel ulighed i
helbred eller uddannelse.
helbred eller uddannelse.
07:19
We also learned that people
are particularly open
are particularly open
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Vi lærte også, at folk især er åbne
07:22
to changes in equality
when it comes to people
when it comes to people
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for forandringer i lighed,
når det kommer til folk, der
når det kommer til folk, der
07:24
who have less agency --
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er i dårligere stand
til at klare sig selv -
til at klare sig selv -
07:26
basically, young kids and babies,
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generelt set unge børn og babyer,
07:29
because we don't think of them
as responsible for their situation.
as responsible for their situation.
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fordi vi ikke se dem som værende
ansvarlige for deres situation.
ansvarlige for deres situation.
07:34
So what are some lessons from this?
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Så hvad er lektien fra det her?
07:36
We have two gaps:
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Vi har to kløfter:
07:37
We have a knowledge gap
and we have a desirability gap
and we have a desirability gap
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Vi har en videnskløft og
en ønskekløft.
en ønskekløft.
07:40
And the knowledge gap
is something that we think about,
is something that we think about,
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Videnskløften er noget, vi tænker på.
07:42
how do we educate people?
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Hvordan uddanner vi folk?
07:44
How do we get people to think
differently about inequality
differently about inequality
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Hvordan får vi folk til at tænke
anderledes om ulighed
anderledes om ulighed
07:46
and the consequences of inequality
in terms of health, education,
in terms of health, education,
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og konsekvenserne af ulighed
i relation til helbred, uddannelse,
i relation til helbred, uddannelse,
07:50
jealousy, crime rate, and so on?
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jalousi, kriminalitet osv.?
07:52
Then we have the desirability gap.
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Så har vi ønskekløften.
07:54
How do we get people to think differently
about what we really want?
about what we really want?
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Hvordan får vi folk til at tænke
anderledes omkring, hvad de virkelig vil have?
anderledes omkring, hvad de virkelig vil have?
07:58
You see, the Rawls definition,
the Rawls way of looking at the world,
the Rawls way of looking at the world,
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Rawls måde at se verden på, ser I,
08:02
the blind tasting approach,
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blindsmagningstilgangen,
08:03
takes our selfish motivation
out of the picture.
out of the picture.
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eliminerer vores selviske motivation.
08:06
How do we implement that
to a higher degree
to a higher degree
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Hvordan implementerer vi det i højere grad
08:09
on a more extensive scale?
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på en mere omfattende skala?
08:11
And finally, we also have an action gap.
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Og til slut har vi en handlingskløft.
08:14
How do we take these things
and actually do something about it?
and actually do something about it?
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Hvordan får vi rent faktisk
gjort noget ved de her ting?
gjort noget ved de her ting?
08:17
I think part of the answer
is to think about people
is to think about people
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Jeg tror dele af svaret,
er at tænke på folk
er at tænke på folk
08:20
like young kids and babies
that don't have much agency,
that don't have much agency,
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som unge børn og babyer, der
dårligere kan klare sig selv,
dårligere kan klare sig selv,
08:23
because people seem to be
more willing to do this.
more willing to do this.
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for det ser ud til at folk
er mere villige til at gøre det.
er mere villige til at gøre det.
08:27
To summarize, I would say,
next time you go to drink beer or wine,
next time you go to drink beer or wine,
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For at opsummere vil jeg sige, næste
gang I går ud og drikker øl eller vin,
gang I går ud og drikker øl eller vin,
08:32
first of all, think about, what is it
in your experience that is real,
in your experience that is real,
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skal I først og fremmest overveje, hvilken
del af jeres oplevelse, der er virkelig,
del af jeres oplevelse, der er virkelig,
08:36
and what is it in your experience
that is a placebo effect
that is a placebo effect
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og hvilken del, der er placeboeffekt
08:40
coming from expectations?
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stammende fra forventninger.
08:41
And then think about what it also means
for other decisions in your life,
for other decisions in your life,
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Og overvej så, hvad det betyder
for andre beslutninger i jeres liv
for andre beslutninger i jeres liv
08:45
and hopefully also for policy questions
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og forhåbentligt også for politiske spørgsmål,
08:47
that affect all of us.
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der påvirker os alle.
08:48
Thanks a lot.
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Mange tak.
08:50
(Applause)
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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economistThe dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.
Why you should listen
Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably Irrational, The Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.
Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com