ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.

Why you should listen

Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably IrrationalThe Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.

Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com
TED2015

Dan Ariely: How equal do we want the world to be? You'd be surprised

丹.艾瑞利: 我們期待世界有多平等?答案讓人大吃一驚

Filmed:
1,928,125 views

社會上不平等的情況日益嚴重,這消息讓每個人都不好受。但為什麼呢?丹.艾瑞利揭露針對大家認為的平等,以及財富如何在社會上分配的新奇、驚人調查結果,並計算出加總起來的真實數字是多少。
- Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why. Full bio

Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.

如果我們能客觀面對生活和各方面
00:12
It would be nice不錯 to be
objective目的 in life,
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00:15
in many許多 ways方法.
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就太好了。
00:17
The problem問題 is that we have
these color-tinted顏色著色 glasses眼鏡
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問題是我們戴著這些有色鏡片
00:20
as we look at all kinds of situations情況.
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去看待各種情境。
拿啤酒這種簡單的例子來說吧。
00:25
For example, think about
something as simple簡單 as beer啤酒.
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00:29
If I gave you a few少數 beers啤酒 to taste味道
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如果我讓你嚐幾款啤酒,
00:31
and I asked you to rate them
on intensity強度 and bitterness苦味,
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請你評比每一種酒的烈度和苦味,
00:35
different不同 beers啤酒 would occupy佔據
different不同 space空間.
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不同的啤酒會落在不同的位置。
00:39
But what if we tried試著
to be objective目的 about it?
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但如果我們試著客觀面對
會怎麼樣?
00:41
In the case案件 of beer啤酒,
it would be very simple簡單.
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以啤酒來說很簡單。
00:43
What if we did a blind taste味道?
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如果我們不看啤酒廠牌
會怎麼樣?
00:46
Well, if we did the same相同 thing,
you tasted the same相同 beer啤酒,
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如果我們做同樣的事,
你嚐同樣的啤酒,
00:48
now in the blind taste味道,
things would look slightly different不同.
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但現在你不知道是哪種啤酒,
結果就會不太一樣。
00:52
Most of the beers啤酒 will go into one place地點.
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大部分的啤酒會落在同一個位置,
00:55
You will basically基本上 not
be able能夠 to distinguish區分 them,
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基本上你無法分辨,
00:57
and the exception例外, of course課程,
will be Guinness吉尼斯.
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當然,健力士例外。
01:00
(Laughter笑聲)
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(笑聲)
01:02
Similarly同樣, we can think about physiology生理.
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同樣我們也能來看看生理機能。
01:05
What happens發生 when people expect期望
something from their physiology生理?
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大家在預期自己的生理機能時
會出現什麼情況?
01:08
For example, we sold出售 people
pain疼痛 medications藥物治療.
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例如,我們賣止痛藥給大家。
01:11
Some people, we told them
the medications藥物治療 were expensive昂貴.
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我們跟某些人說的價格比較昂貴,
01:13
Some people, we told them it was cheap低廉.
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跟其他人說的價格較低。
01:15
And the expensive昂貴
pain疼痛 medication藥物治療 worked工作 better.
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結果昂貴止痛藥的效果比較好,
01:18
It relieved安心 more pain疼痛 from people,
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更能有效舒緩這些人的疼痛,
01:21
because expectations期望
do change更改 our physiology生理.
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因為預期會改變我們的身體機能。
01:24
And of course課程, we all know that in sports體育,
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當然,我們都知道看運動賽的時候,
01:26
if you are a fan風扇 of a particular特定 team球隊,
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如果你是某隊的粉絲,
你就會無法克制
01:28
you can't help but see the game遊戲
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從你支持隊伍的觀點去看比賽。
01:31
develop發展 from the perspective透視 of your team球隊.
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01:34
So all of those are cases in which哪一個
our preconceived先入為主 notions概念
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因此這些案例都顯示了
我們先入為主的念頭和期待
01:38
and our expectations期望 color顏色 our world世界.
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影響了我們的世界。
01:42
But what happened發生
in more important重要 questions問題?
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但是在更重要的問題上
出現什麼情況?
01:45
What happened發生 with questions問題
that had to do with social社會 justice正義?
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在和社會正義有關的問題上
出現什麼情況?
01:49
So we wanted to think about
what is the blind tasting品嚐 version
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所以我們想
思考不平等的盲測試版本是什麼?
01:52
for thinking思維 about inequality不等式?
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01:55
So we started開始 looking at inequality不等式,
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因此我們開始檢視不平等,
01:57
and we did some large-scale大規模 surveys調查
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我們做了大規模的調查,
遍及美國和其它國家。
01:59
around the U.S. and other countries國家.
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我們問了兩個問題:
02:02
So we asked two questions問題:
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02:04
Do people know what kind of
level水平 of inequality不等式 we have?
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大家「知道」
我們現今社會不平等的程度如何嗎?
02:07
And then, what level水平 of inequality不等式
do we want to have?
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第二,我們「希望」
的不平等程度又是如何?
02:11
So let's think about the first question.
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我們來看看第一個問題。
想像我將所有美國人分類,
02:14
Imagine想像 I took all the people in the U.S.
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02:16
and I sorted分類 them from
the poorest最窮 on the right
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最貧窮的在右邊,
02:19
to the richest首富 on the left,
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最富有的在左邊,
02:21
and then I divided分為 them into five buckets水桶:
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然後我將所有人分成五群:
02:24
the poorest最窮 20 percent百分,
the next下一個 20 percent百分,
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最窮的佔 20%,接著 20%,
02:26
the next下一個, the next下一個,
and the richest首富 20 percent百分.
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接著 20%、20%,
以及最富有的 20%。
02:29
And then I asked you to tell me
how much wealth財富 do you think
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然後請你告訴我,
你認為每一群人
擁有的財富比例是多少。
02:32
is concentrated集中 in each of those buckets水桶.
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簡單來說,請想像我問的是
02:35
So to make it simpler簡單,
imagine想像 I ask you to tell me,
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02:37
how much wealth財富 do you think
is concentrated集中
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你認為有多少財富集中在
02:40
in the bottom底部 two buckets水桶,
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最底層的這兩群人身上?
02:42
the bottom底部 40 percent百分?
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就是底層 40% 的人?
02:44
Take a second第二. Think about it
and have a number.
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花點時間,想出一個數字。
02:47
Usually平時 we don't think.
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通常我們都不會多想。
02:49
Think for a second第二,
have a real真實 number in your mind心神.
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只要花點時間,心裡得出一個數字。
02:51
You have it?
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有答案了嗎?
02:53
Okay, here's這裡的 what lots
of Americans美國人 tell us.
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好,這是大多數美國人給我們的答案。
02:56
They think that the bottom底部 20 percent百分
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他們認為最底層 20% 的人
02:58
has about 2.9 percent百分 of the wealth財富,
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大概擁有 2.9% 的財富;
03:00
the next下一個 group has 6.4,
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下一群人有 6.4% 的財富,
03:02
so together一起 it's slightly more than nine.
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總計比 9% 多一點。
03:05
The next下一個 group, they say, has 12 percent百分,
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他們說下一群人有 12% 的財富,
03:08
20 percent百分,
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20%,
03:10
and the richest首富 20 percent百分, people think
has 58 percent百分 of the wealth財富.
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大家認為最富有的 20% 人口
擁有 58% 的財富。
03:15
You can see how this relates涉及
to what you thought.
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你可以看到這和你想像中數字的差異。
03:18
Now, what's reality現實?
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事實呢?
03:19
Reality現實 is slightly different不同.
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事實有點不同。
03:21
The bottom底部 20 percent百分
has 0.1 percent百分 of the wealth財富.
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底層 20% 的人擁有 0.1% 的財富。
03:25
The next下一個 20 percent百分
has 0.2 percent百分 of the wealth財富.
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接下來 20% 的人有 0.2% 的財富。
03:28
Together一起, it's 0.3.
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加起來是 0.3%。
03:30
The next下一個 group has 3.9,
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下一組是 3.9%、
03:34
11.3,
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11.3%,
03:36
and the richest首富 group
has 84-85 percent百分 of the wealth財富.
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最富有的這群人
有 84% 到 85% 的財富。
03:42
So what we actually其實 have
and what we think we have
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因此事實和我們的想像
03:45
are very different不同.
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大不相同。
03:47
What about what we want?
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那麼我們的期待呢?
03:49
How do we even figure數字 this out?
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我們怎麼找出答案?
03:51
So to look at this,
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為了找出答案,
03:52
to look at what we really want,
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了解我們真正的期待,
03:54
we thought about
the philosopher哲學家 John約翰 Rawls羅爾斯.
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我們想到哲學家約翰.羅爾斯。
03:57
If you remember記得 John約翰 Rawls羅爾斯,
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如果你記得約翰.羅爾斯的話,
03:59
he had this notion概念
of what's a just society社會.
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你會知道他說
「什麼是正義的社會」這個概念。
04:02
He said a just society社會
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他說正義的社會
04:04
is a society社會 that if
you knew知道 everything about it,
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是一個如果你知道其中的一切,
04:06
you would be willing願意
to enter輸入 it in a random隨機 place地點.
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你會願意在這個社會的任何一個位置。
04:09
And it's a beautiful美麗 definition定義,
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這是很美好的定義,
04:10
because if you're wealthy富裕,
you might威力 want the wealthy富裕
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因為如果你很富有,你也許會希望
富者更富,窮者更窮。
04:13
to have more money, the poor較差的 to have less.
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04:15
If you're poor較差的, you might威力
want more equality平等.
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如果你是窮人,你應該會希望更平等。
04:17
But if you're going
to go into that society社會
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但如果你要進入那個社會,
04:19
in every一切 possible可能 situation情況,
and you don't know,
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可能待在任何的位置上,
你不知道是哪一個,
04:22
you have to consider考慮 all the aspects方面.
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你就得考慮周詳。
04:24
It's a little bit like blind tasting品嚐
in which哪一個 you don't know
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這有點像盲測試,
你不知道自己做的決定會有什麼結果,
04:27
what the outcome結果 will be
when you make a decision決定,
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04:30
and Rawls羅爾斯 called this
the "veil面紗 of ignorance無知."
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約翰.羅爾斯稱此為「無知之幕」。
04:34
So, we took another另一個 group,
a large group of Americans美國人,
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我們拿另一組人,一大群美國人,
04:37
and we asked them the question
in the veil面紗 of ignorance無知.
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套用「無知之幕」的情況
問他們這個問題。
04:40
What are the characteristics特點 of a country國家
that would make you want to join加入 it,
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一個有什麼特質的國家
會讓你想成為國民?
04:44
knowing會心 that you could end結束
randomly隨機 at any place地點?
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前提是你會隨機
被放在任何一個位置上。
04:47
And here is what we got.
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我們得到的結果如下:
04:49
What did people want to give
to the first group,
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大家想給第一組人,
04:51
the bottom底部 20 percent百分?
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也就是底層 20% 的人多少?
04:53
They wanted to give them
about 10 percent百分 of the wealth財富.
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他們想要給這些人 10% 的財富,
04:56
The next下一個 group, 14 percent百分 of the wealth財富,
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接下來這組是 14% 的財富、
04:59
21, 22 and 32.
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21%、22%、32% 的財富。
05:04
Now, nobody沒有人 in our sample樣品
wanted full充分 equality平等.
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現在,樣本裡沒人想要完全平等。
05:07
Nobody沒有人 thought that socialism社會主義
is a fantastic奇妙 idea理念 in our sample樣品.
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樣本裡沒人認為社會主義是最好的。
05:12
But what does it mean?
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但這意謂著什麼?
05:13
It means手段 that we have this knowledge知識 gap間隙
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這意謂了我們有知識落差,
05:15
between之間 what we have
and what we think we have,
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存在於真實情況
和我們的想像之間,
05:18
but we have at least最小 as big a gap間隙
between之間 what we think is right
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但是我們認為正確
和我們想像中的現況,
05:22
to what we think we have.
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這兩者間的知識落差更大。
05:24
Now, we can ask these questions問題,
by the way, not just about wealth財富.
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順帶一提,我們不只能
在財富上問這個問題,
05:28
We can ask it about other things as well.
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每件事都能是這些問題的主題。
05:30
So for example, we asked people
from different不同 parts部分 of the world世界
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例如,我們問世界各地的人
05:34
about this question,
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這個問題,
05:36
people who are liberals自由主義者 and conservatives保守派,
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不論是自由黨還是保守黨,
05:38
and they gave us basically基本上
the same相同 answer回答.
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基本上他們給的答案都一樣。
05:40
We asked rich豐富 and poor較差的,
they gave us the same相同 answer回答,
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不論貧富都給了相同答案,
05:43
men男人 and women婦女,
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不論男女,
05:44
NPR美國國家公共電台 listeners聽眾 and Forbes福布斯 readers讀者.
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不論是全國公共廣播電台聽眾,
或《富比士》讀者。
05:47
We asked people in England英國,
Australia澳大利亞, the U.S. --
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我們問了英國、澳洲、美國…等國國民,
05:50
very similar類似 answers答案.
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答案都大同小異。
05:52
We even asked different不同
departments部門 of a university大學.
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我們還問了大學不同系所的人,
05:54
We went to Harvard哈佛 and we checked檢查
almost幾乎 every一切 department,
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我們幾乎去了哈佛的每個系所,
05:57
and in fact事實, from Harvard哈佛 Business商業 School學校,
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事實上哈佛商學院裡,
05:59
where a few少數 people wanted the wealthy富裕
to have more and the [poor較差的] to have less,
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很少人希望富人更富,
而希望他們擁有的少一點。
答案如此雷同,非常驚人。
06:03
the similarity相似 was astonishing驚人.
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06:05
I know some of you went
to Harvard哈佛 Business商業 School學校.
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我知道在座有些人念過哈佛商學院。
06:08
We also asked this question
about something else其他.
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我們也會拿其它主題來問這些問題。
06:12
We asked, what about the ratio
of CEOCEO pay工資 to unskilled不熟練 workers工人?
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我們問,總裁和非技術性員工的薪資比是多少?
06:17
So you can see what
people think is the ratio,
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你可以看到大家想像中的比例,
06:20
and then we can ask the question,
what do they think should be the ratio?
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接著我們可以再問這個問題,
你認為比例應該是多少?
06:24
And then we can ask, what is reality現實?
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然後我們就可以問事實是多少?
06:26
What is reality現實? And you could say,
well, it's not that bad, right?
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事實是多少?你可能會說,
噢,其實沒那麼差嘛?
06:30
The red and the yellow黃色
are not that different不同.
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紅色和黃色差不多。
06:32
But the fact事實 is, it's because
I didn't draw them on the same相同 scale規模.
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但事實是因為我沒有
使用相同的比例尺。
06:38
It's hard to see, there's yellow黃色
and blue藍色 in there.
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你幾乎看不到裡面還有黃色和藍色。
06:42
So what about other outcomes結果 of wealth財富?
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那其它財富的結果呢?
06:44
Wealth財富 is not just about wealth財富.
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財富不只事關財富。
06:46
We asked, what about things like health健康?
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我們還問,健康方面又如何呢?
06:48
What about availability可用性
of prescription處方 medication藥物治療?
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像是取得處方箋的難易度呢?
06:52
What about life expectancy期待?
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平均壽命呢?
06:54
What about life expectancy期待 of infants嬰兒?
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嬰兒的平均壽命呢?
06:57
How do we want this to be distributed分散式?
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我們希望怎麼分配這些項目?
06:59
What about education教育 for young年輕 people?
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年輕人的教育呢?
07:02
And for older舊的 people?
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年長者的教育呢?
07:04
And across橫過 all of those things,
what we learned學到了 was that people
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透過那些事情,我們發現
大家不是很喜歡貧富不均,
07:07
don't like inequality不等式 of wealth財富,
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07:10
but there's other things where inequality不等式,
which哪一個 is an outcome結果 of wealth財富,
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但是還有很多來自於貧富不均的情況
07:13
is even more aversive厭惡 to them:
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更讓人反感:
07:15
for example, inequality不等式
in health健康 or education教育.
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例如,健康或教育的不平等。
07:19
We also learned學到了 that people
are particularly尤其 open打開
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我們也發現大家特別願意
改變不平等的情況,
07:22
to changes變化 in equality平等
when it comes to people
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特別是碰到那些
比較沒有行為能力的對象,
07:24
who have less agency機構 --
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基本上就是小孩和嬰兒,
07:26
basically基本上, young年輕 kids孩子 and babies嬰兒,
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07:29
because we don't think of them
as responsible主管 for their situation情況.
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因為我們認為
他們不需為自己的現況負責。
07:34
So what are some lessons教訓 from this?
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那我們從中學到什麼?
07:36
We have two gaps空白:
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我們有兩種落差:
07:37
We have a knowledge知識 gap間隙
and we have a desirability可取 gap間隙
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我們有知識落差和期望落差。
07:40
And the knowledge知識 gap間隙
is something that we think about,
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知識落差是指我們認為
07:42
how do we educate教育 people?
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我們怎麼教育大眾?
07:44
How do we get people to think
differently不同 about inequality不等式
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我們怎麼讓大家
用不同的方式想像不平等、
07:46
and the consequences後果 of inequality不等式
in terms條款 of health健康, education教育,
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以及隨之而來,像是健康、教育、
07:50
jealousy妒忌, crime犯罪 rate, and so on?
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妒忌、犯罪率…等等的不平等後果?
07:52
Then we have the desirability可取 gap間隙.
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另外我們也有期望落差。
07:54
How do we get people to think differently不同
about what we really want?
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我們怎麼讓大家用不同的方式
思考我們真正想要的是什麼?
07:58
You see, the Rawls羅爾斯 definition定義,
the Rawls羅爾斯 way of looking at the world世界,
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你看羅爾斯定義,
羅爾斯看世界的方式,
08:02
the blind tasting品嚐 approach途徑,
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盲測試法,
08:03
takes our selfish自私 motivation動機
out of the picture圖片.
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將我們自私的動機移到畫面之外。
08:06
How do we implement實行 that
to a higher更高 degree
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我們如何將之運用在程度更高、
08:09
on a more extensive廣泛 scale規模?
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範圍更廣的事物上?
08:11
And finally最後, we also have an action行動 gap間隙.
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最後,我們還有行為落差。
08:14
How do we take these things
and actually其實 do something about it?
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我們要如何依據這些東西
並確實做出改變?
08:17
I think part部分 of the answer回答
is to think about people
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我認為可能的答案是
08:20
like young年輕 kids孩子 and babies嬰兒
that don't have much agency機構,
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想想孩子、嬰兒,
他們沒什麼行為能力,
08:23
because people seem似乎 to be
more willing願意 to do this.
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因為大家似乎更願意為了他們而改變。
08:27
To summarize總結, I would say,
next下一個 time you go to drink beer啤酒 or wine紅酒,
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總而言之,下次你去喝啤酒或紅酒,
08:32
first of all, think about, what is it
in your experience經驗 that is real真實,
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先思考在你的經驗裡,有什麼是真的,
08:36
and what is it in your experience經驗
that is a placebo安慰劑 effect影響
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在你的經驗裡,
有什麼只是安慰劑效應,
08:40
coming未來 from expectations期望?
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你被期待影響了?
08:41
And then think about what it also means手段
for other decisions決定 in your life,
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接著再思考,這對你生命中
其它決定有何意義?
08:45
and hopefully希望 also for policy政策 questions問題
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以及對影響我們大家的政策問題
會有什麼意義?
08:47
that affect影響 all of us.
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08:48
Thanks謝謝 a lot.
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非常感謝。
08:50
(Applause掌聲)
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(掌聲)
Translated by Marssi Draw
Reviewed by Coco Shen

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ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Dan Ariely - Behavioral economist
The dismal science of economics is not as firmly grounded in actual behavior as was once supposed. In "Predictably Irrational," Dan Ariely told us why.

Why you should listen

Dan Ariely is a professor of psychology and behavioral economics at Duke University and a founding member of the Center for Advanced Hindsight. He is the author of the bestsellers Predictably IrrationalThe Upside of Irrationality, and The Honest Truth About Dishonesty -- as well as the TED Book Payoff: The Hidden Logic that Shapes Our Motivations.

Through his research and his (often amusing and unorthodox) experiments, he questions the forces that influence human behavior and the irrational ways in which we often all behave.

More profile about the speaker
Dan Ariely | Speaker | TED.com