TED2011
Kathryn Schulz: On being wrong
Kathrin Schultz: O biti u krivu
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Većina nas će učinit sve kako bi izbjegli biti u krivu. No što ako griješimo u vezi toga? "Krivologinja" Kathryn Schulz iznosi zbunjujuće argumente o tome da ne samo da bismo trebali priznavati svoju pogrešivost, nego bismo je trebali i prihvatiti.
Kathryn Schulz - Wrongologist
Kathryn Schulz is a staff writer for the New Yorker and is the author of "Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error." Full bio
Kathryn Schulz is a staff writer for the New Yorker and is the author of "Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error." Full bio
Double-click the English transcript below to play the video.
00:15
So it's 1995,
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Dakle 1995. je
00:18
I'm in college,
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i ja sam na fakultetu,
00:20
and a friend and I go on a road trip
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i idem s prijateljicom na putovanje
00:23
from Providence, Rhode Island
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od Providence, u Rhode Islandu
00:25
to Portland, Oregon.
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do Portlanda, u Oregonu.
00:27
And you know, we're young and unemployed,
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Znate, mlade smo i nezaposlene,
00:30
so we do the whole thing on back roads
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i cijelim putem idemo po sporednim cestama
00:32
through state parks
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kroz prirodne rezervate
00:34
and national forests --
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i nacionalne parkove --
00:37
basically the longest route we can possibly take.
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zapravo najduža ruta kojom smo mogle ići.
00:41
And somewhere in the middle of South Dakota,
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I tamo negdje usred Južne Dakote,
00:44
I turn to my friend
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okrenem se prijateljici
00:47
and I ask her a question
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i postavim joj pitanje
00:49
that's been bothering me
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koje me mučilo
00:51
for 2,000 miles.
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3.220 kilometara.
00:55
"What's up with the Chinese character I keep seeing by the side of the road?"
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"Kakav je to kineski znak koji stalno viđam kraj ceste?"
01:02
My friend looks at me totally blankly.
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Prijateljica me pogleda posve zbunjeno.
01:06
There's actually a gentleman in the front row
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Tu je gospodin u prvom redu
01:08
who's doing a perfect imitation of her look.
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koji me upravo gleda kao ona tada.
01:11
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:14
And I'm like, "You know,
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Kažem: "Znaš,
01:16
all the signs we keep seeing
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svi oni znakovi koje viđamo
01:18
with the Chinese character on them."
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s kineskim znakom na njima."
01:22
She just stares at me for a few moments,
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U je samo buljila u mene na nekoliko trenutaka
01:25
and then she cracks up,
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a onda je pukla,
01:28
because she figures out what I'm talking about.
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jer je shvatila o čemu govorim.
01:30
And what I'm talking about is this.
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A ono o čemu govorim je ovo.
01:33
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:39
Right, the famous Chinese character for picnic area.
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Da, poznati kineski znak za prostor za piknik.
01:43
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
01:45
I've spent the last five years of my life
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Provela sam posljednjih pet godina svog života
01:49
thinking about situations
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misleći o situacijama
01:51
exactly like this --
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upravo kao što je ova --
01:54
why we sometimes misunderstand
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zašto ponekad pogrešno razumijemo
01:56
the signs around us,
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znakove oko nas,
01:58
and how we behave when that happens,
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i kako se ponašamo kada se to dogodi,
02:01
and what all of this can tell us about human nature.
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i što nam sve to može reći o ljudskoj prirodi.
02:05
In other words, as you heard Chris say,
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Drugim riječima, kao što ste čuli da je Chris rekao,
02:07
I've spent the last five years
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provela sam posljednjih pet godina
02:09
thinking about being wrong.
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misleći na to kako je to kad smo u krivu.
02:12
This might strike you as a strange career move,
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Mogli biste pomisliti kako je to čudan potez u karijeri,
02:15
but it actually has one great advantage:
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ali zapravo ima jednu veliku prednost:
02:18
no job competition.
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nema konkurencije.
02:20
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
02:22
In fact, most of us do everything we can
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Zapravo, većina nas učinit će sve što može
02:25
to avoid thinking about being wrong,
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da izbjegne razmišljati o tome da je u krivu
02:28
or at least to avoid thinking about the possibility
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ili barem da izbjegne razmišljati o mogućnosti
02:30
that we ourselves are wrong.
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da smo u krivu.
02:32
We get it in the abstract.
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Shvaćamo to kada je apstraktno.
02:34
We all know everybody in this room makes mistakes.
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Svi mi znamo da svatko od nas u ovoj sobi čini pogreške.
02:37
The human species, in general, is fallible -- okay fine.
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Ljudska je vrsta općenito pogrešiva -- u redu.
02:41
But when it comes down to me, right now,
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Ali kad se radi o meni upravo sada
02:44
to all the beliefs I hold,
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o svim mojim uvjerenjima,
02:46
here in the present tense,
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ovdje u sadašnjosti,
02:49
suddenly all of this abstract appreciation of fallibility
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odjednom sva ta apstraktna priznanja o pogrešivosti
02:53
goes out the window --
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padaju u vodu --
02:56
and I can't actually think of anything I'm wrong about.
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i zapravo se ne mogu sjetiti ničega u vezi čega sam u krivu.
03:00
And the thing is, the present tense is where we live.
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Stvar je u tome da je sadašnjost tu gdje živimo.
03:03
We go to meetings in the present tense;
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Idemo na sastanke u sadašnjem vremenu;
03:06
we go on family vacations in the present tense;
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idemo na obiteljske izlete u sadašnjem vremenu;
03:08
we go to the polls and vote in the present tense.
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idemo na izbore i glasamo u sadašnjem vremenu.
03:12
So effectively, we all kind of wind up traveling through life,
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Zapravo čini se da kroz život putujemo
03:15
trapped in this little bubble
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zarobljeni unutar mjehurića
03:17
of feeling very right about everything.
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osjećaja da smo u svemu u pravu.
03:21
I think this is a problem.
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Mislim da je to problem.
03:23
I think it's a problem for each of us as individuals,
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Mislim da je to problem za svakog od nas pojedinačno
03:26
in our personal and professional lives,
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u našem privatnom i profesionalnom životu
03:29
and I think it's a problem for all of us collectively as a culture.
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i mislim kako je to problem za sve nas u cjelini kao kulturu.
03:32
So what I want to do today
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Stoga ono što želim učiniti danas
03:34
is, first of all, talk about why we get stuck
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je, kao prvo, govoriti o tome zašto zaglavimo
03:37
inside this feeling of being right.
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unutar osjećaja ispravnosti.
03:39
And second, why it's such a problem.
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I drugo, zašto je to takav problem.
03:42
And finally, I want to convince you
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I konačno, želim vas uvjeriti
03:44
that it is possible
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da je moguće
03:46
to step outside of that feeling
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izići iz tog osjećaja,
03:48
and that if you can do so,
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i da, ako to možete učiniti,
03:50
it is the single greatest
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to je onda najveći
03:52
moral, intellectual and creative leap you can make.
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moralni, intelektualni i kreativni skok koji možete učiniti.
03:57
So why do we get stuck
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Pa zašto zaglavimo
03:59
in this feeling of being right?
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u tom osjećaju ispravnosti?
04:01
One reason, actually, has to do with a feeling of being wrong.
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Jedan razlog zapravo ima veze s osjećajem krivice.
04:04
So let me ask you guys something --
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Dajte da vas štogod upitam --
04:06
or actually, let me ask you guys something, because you're right here:
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ili zapravo, dajte da priupitam vas koji ste bliže:
04:10
How does it feel -- emotionally --
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Kakav je to osjećaj -- emotivno --
04:13
how does it feel to be wrong?
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kakav je to osjećaj biti u krivu?
04:16
Dreadful. Thumbs down.
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Strašno. Palčevi dolje.
04:19
Embarrassing. Okay, wonderful, great.
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Posramljeno. OK, divno, dobro.
04:21
Dreadful, thumbs down, embarrassing --
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Strašno, palčevi dolje, posramljeno --
04:23
thank you, these are great answers,
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hvala vam, to su odlični odgovori,
04:26
but they're answers to a different question.
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ali to su odgovori na drugo pitanje.
04:29
You guys are answering the question:
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Vi ste odgovorili na pitanje:
04:31
How does it feel to realize you're wrong?
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Kakav je to osjećaj kad shvatite da ste u krivu?
04:34
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
04:38
Realizing you're wrong can feel like all of that and a lot of other things, right?
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Kada shvatite da ste u krivu, možete se osjećati ovako ali i potpuno drugačije, zar ne?
04:41
I mean it can be devastating, it can be revelatory,
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Mislim, to može biti poražavajuće, može biti i poučno,
04:44
it can actually be quite funny,
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može biti i prilično smiješno,
04:46
like my stupid Chinese character mistake.
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kao moja glupa greška s kineskim znakom.
04:49
But just being wrong
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Ali samo biti u krivu
04:52
doesn't feel like anything.
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ne osjeća se poput nečega.
04:54
I'll give you an analogy.
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Dat ću vam analogiju.
04:57
Do you remember that Loony Tunes cartoon
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Sjećate li se onog crtića
04:59
where there's this pathetic coyote
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s onim patetičnim kojotom
05:01
who's always chasing and never catching a roadrunner?
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koji uvijek lovi, ali nikad ne ulovi Pticu Trkačicu?
05:03
In pretty much every episode of this cartoon,
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U gotovo svakoj epizodi tog crtića,
05:06
there's a moment where the coyote is chasing the roadrunner
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postoji trenutak gdje kojot lovi Pticu Trkačicu
05:08
and the roadrunner runs off a cliff,
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i Ptica otrči preko ruba litice,
05:10
which is fine -- he's a bird, he can fly.
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što je u redu, ona je ptica, može letjeti.
05:13
But the thing is, the coyote runs off the cliff right after him.
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Ali stvar je u tome da i kojot otrči za njom preko ruba litice.
05:17
And what's funny --
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I ono što je smiješno --
05:19
at least if you're six years old --
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barem ako imate šest godina --
05:21
is that the coyote's totally fine too.
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ja da je to kojotu sasvim u redu.
05:23
He just keeps running --
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On trči i dalje --
05:25
right up until the moment that he looks down
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sve do trenutka dok ne pogleda dolje
05:27
and realizes that he's in mid-air.
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i shvati da je u zraku.
05:30
That's when he falls.
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I tada pada.
05:34
When we're wrong about something --
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Kada smo u krivu u vezi nečega --
05:36
not when we realize it, but before that --
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ne kada to shvatimo nego prije --
05:39
we're like that coyote
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mi smo kao taj kojot
05:42
after he's gone off the cliff and before he looks down.
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nakon što je otrčao preko ruba litice i prije nego pogleda dolje.
05:46
You know, we're already wrong,
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Znate, već smo u krivu,
05:49
we're already in trouble,
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već smo u nevolji,
05:51
but we feel like we're on solid ground.
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ali osjećamo kao da smo na čvrstom tlu.
05:55
So I should actually correct something I said a moment ago.
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Trebala bih stoga ispraviti ono što sam maločas rekla.
05:58
It does feel like something to be wrong;
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Kada smo u krivu to se osjeća,
06:01
it feels like being right.
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osjeća se kao da smo u pravu.
06:04
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:07
So this is one reason, a structural reason,
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Dakle to je razlog, strukturni razlog,
06:10
why we get stuck inside this feeling of rightness.
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zašto zaglavimo unutar osjećaja ispravnosti.
06:12
I call this error blindness.
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Zovem to sljepoća za pogrešku
06:14
Most of the time,
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Većinu vremena,
06:16
we don't have any kind of internal cue
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nemamo neki unutarnji pokazivač
06:19
to let us know that we're wrong about something,
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koji bi nam dao do znanja da smo u krivu u vezi nečega
06:21
until it's too late.
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sve dok nije prekasno.
06:24
But there's a second reason that we get stuck inside this feeling as well --
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No postoji još i drugi razlog zašto zaglavimo unutar tog osjećaja --
06:27
and this one is cultural.
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a taj je kulturološki.
06:30
Think back for a moment to elementary school.
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Sjetite se nakratko osnovne škole.
06:33
You're sitting there in class,
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Sjedite u učionici
06:35
and your teacher is handing back quiz papers,
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i učitelj vam vraća rezultate kontrolne zadaće,
06:38
and one of them looks like this.
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i jedna izgleda ovako.
06:40
This is not mine, by the way.
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Usput, nije moja.
06:42
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
06:44
So there you are in grade school,
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U osnovnoj školi ste
06:47
and you know exactly what to think
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i točno znate što misliti
06:49
about the kid who got this paper.
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o djetetu koje je dobilo ovaj papir.
06:52
It's the dumb kid, the troublemaker,
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To je glupo dijete, ono koje radi nevolje,
06:55
the one who never does his homework.
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ono koje nikad ne napravi zadaću.
06:58
So by the time you are nine years old,
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Dakle, do vaše devete godine
07:01
you've already learned, first of all,
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vi ste već naučili da su, kao prvo,
07:03
that people who get stuff wrong
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ljudi koji štogod krivo shvate
07:05
are lazy, irresponsible dimwits --
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lijeni, neodgovorni tupavci --
07:08
and second of all,
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i kao drugo,
07:10
that the way to succeed in life
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put uspjeha u životu
07:12
is to never make any mistakes.
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je nikada ne griješiti.
07:16
We learn these really bad lessons really well.
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Učimo ove stvarno loše lekcije vrlo dobro.
07:21
And a lot of us --
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I mnogi od nas -
07:23
and I suspect, especially a lot of us in this room --
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slutim, posebice mnogi od nas u ovoj prostoriji --
07:27
deal with them by just becoming
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nosili su se s njima tako da su postali
07:29
perfect little A students,
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savršeni mali odlikaši,
07:31
perfectionists, over-achievers.
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perfekcionisti, nadareni.
07:34
Right,
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Zar ne,
07:36
Mr. CFO, astrophysicist, ultra-marathoner?
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gospodine glavni financijski direktore, astrofizičaru, ultramaratonče?
07:40
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
07:47
You're all CFO, astrophysicists, ultra-marathoners, it turns out.
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Ispada da ste svi glavni financijski direktori, astrofizičari, ultramaratonci.
07:51
Okay, so fine.
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OK, pa dobro.
07:53
Except that then we freak out
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Osim što pošizimo
07:56
at the possibility that we've gotten something wrong.
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zbog mogućnosti da smo u nečemu pogriješili.
07:58
Because according to this,
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Jer prema ovome,
08:01
getting something wrong
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ako u nečem pogriješimo
08:03
means there's something wrong with us.
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znači da nešto nije u redu s nama.
08:06
So we just insist that we're right,
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Pa zato inzistiramo na tome da smo u pravu
08:08
because it makes us feel smart and responsible
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jer se zbog toga osjećamo pametno i odgovorno,
08:10
and virtuous and safe.
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i savršeno, i sigurno.
08:14
So let me tell you a story.
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Ispričat ću vam priču.
08:16
A couple of years ago,
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Prije nekoliko godina
08:18
a woman comes into Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center for a surgery.
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jedna je žena došla u Beth Israel Deaconess medicinski centar na operaciju.
08:21
Beth Israel's in Boston.
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Beth Israel je u Bostonu.
08:23
It's the teaching hospital for Harvard --
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To je harvardova sveučilišna bolnica --
08:25
one of the best hospitals in the country.
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i jedna od najboljih bolnica u zemlji.
08:27
So this woman comes in and she's taken into the operating room.
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Žena ulazi i odvode je u operacijsku salu.
08:30
She's anesthetized, the surgeon does his thing --
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Daju joj anesteziju, kirurg obavi svoj posao --
08:32
stitches her back up, sends her out to the recovery room.
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zašije ju i pošalje u sobu za intenzivnu njegu.
08:35
Everything seems to have gone fine.
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Čini se da je sve prošlo u redu.
08:38
And she wakes up, and she looks down at herself,
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Ona se budi i pogleda dolje na sebe,
08:41
and she says, "Why is the wrong side of my body in bandages?"
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i kaže: "Zašto je kriva strana mog tijela u zavojima?"
08:45
Well the wrong side of her body is in bandages
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Pa kriva strana njenog tijela je u zavojima
08:48
because the surgeon has performed a major operation
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zato što je kirurg izvršio ozbiljnu operaciju
08:50
on her left leg instead of her right one.
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na njenoj lijevoj umjesto na desnoj nozi.
08:54
When the vice president for health care quality at Beth Israel
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Kada je zamjenik predsjednika za kvalitetu zdravstvene skrbi u bolnici Beth Israel
08:57
spoke about this incident,
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govorio o ovom incidentu
09:00
he said something very interesting.
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rekao je nešto vrlo zanimljivo.
09:03
He said, "For whatever reason,
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Rekao je: "Zbog nekog razloga
09:06
the surgeon simply felt
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kirurg je jednostavno osjećao
09:08
that he was on the correct side of the patient."
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da je na pravoj strani pacijenta."
09:10
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
09:15
The point of this story
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Smisao ove priče
09:17
is that trusting too much in the feeling
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je da prevelika vjera u osjećaj
09:20
of being on the correct side of anything
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da smo na pravoj strani bilo čega
09:23
can be very dangerous.
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može biti vrlo opasna.
09:26
This internal sense of rightness
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Taj unutarnji osjećaj ispravnosti
09:29
that we all experience so often
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kojeg svi tako često osjećamo
09:31
is not a reliable guide
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nije pouzdan vodič
09:33
to what is actually going on in the external world.
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za ono što se događa u vanjskom svijetu.
09:36
And when we act like it is,
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I kad se ponašamo ovako
09:38
and we stop entertaining the possibility that we could be wrong,
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i prestanemo propitivati mogućnost da smo možda u krivu,
09:42
well that's when we end up doing things
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tada zaglavimo čineći stvari
09:44
like dumping 200 million gallons of oil into the Gulf of Mexico,
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poput izlijevanja 757 milijuna litara nafte u Meksički zaljev,
09:48
or torpedoing the global economy.
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ili torpediramo globalnu ekonomiju.
09:52
So this is a huge practical problem.
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To je ogroman praktični problem.
09:55
But it's also a huge social problem.
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Ali također i ogroman društveni problem.
09:58
Think for a moment about what it means to feel right.
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Razmislite na trenutak o tome što znači osjećati da si u pravu.
10:02
It means that you think that your beliefs
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To znači da mislite da vaša uvjerenja
10:04
just perfectly reflect reality.
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savršeno odražavaju stvarnost.
10:07
And when you feel that way,
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A kad se osjećate tako,
10:09
you've got a problem to solve,
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imate problem koji treba riješiti,
10:11
which is, how are you going to explain
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a taj je, kako objašnjavate
10:13
all of those people who disagree with you?
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sve one ljude koji se ne slažu s vama?
10:16
It turns out, most of us explain those people the same way,
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Čini se da većina nas takve ljude objašnjava na jednak način,
10:19
by resorting to a series of unfortunate assumptions.
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pribjegavajući nizu nesretnih pretpostavki.
10:23
The first thing we usually do when someone disagrees with us
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Prvo što činimo kad se netko ne slaže s nama
10:26
is we just assume they're ignorant.
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je da pretpostavimo da su takvi ljudi neuki.
10:29
They don't have access to the same information that we do,
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Nemaju pristup do iste informacije kao mi
10:31
and when we generously share that information with them,
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pa kad velikodušno s njima podijelimo tu informaciju,
10:34
they're going to see the light and come on over to our team.
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oni će ugledati svjetlo i prijeći u našu ekipu.
10:37
When that doesn't work,
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Kad to ne uspije,
10:40
when it turns out those people have all the same facts that we do
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kad ispadne da ti ljudi raspolažu istim činjenicama kao i mi
10:42
and they still disagree with us,
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i da se i dalje ne slažu s nama
10:44
then we move on to a second assumption,
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tada krećemo na drugu pretpostavku
10:46
which is that they're idiots.
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koja je da su idioti.
10:48
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
10:50
They have all the right pieces of the puzzle,
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Imaju sve prave dijelove slagalice,
10:52
and they are too moronic to put them together correctly.
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ali su preblesavi da ih ispravno sastave.
10:55
And when that doesn't work,
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A kada ni to ne upali,
10:57
when it turns out that people who disagree with us
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kad se ispostavi da ljudi koji se s nama ne slažu
11:00
have all the same facts we do
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i imaju sve iste činjenice kao i mi
11:02
and are actually pretty smart,
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i zapravo su vrlo pametni,
11:05
then we move on to a third assumption:
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tada krećemo na treću pretpostavku:
11:08
they know the truth,
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oni znaju istinu
11:11
and they are deliberately distorting it
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ali je namjerno iskrivljavaju
11:13
for their own malevolent purposes.
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za vlastite zlonamjerne svrhe.
11:17
So this is a catastrophe.
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Pa to je katastrofa.
11:19
This attachment to our own rightness
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Ta privrženost našoj ispravnosti
11:22
keeps us from preventing mistakes
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drži nas podalje od sprječavanja pogrešaka
11:24
when we absolutely need to
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kada je to zaista potrebno
11:26
and causes us to treat each other terribly.
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i uzrokuje grozno ponašanje jednih prema drugima.
11:30
But to me, what's most baffling
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Meni najčudnije
11:32
and most tragic about this
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i najtragičnije u vezi toga
11:35
is that it misses the whole point of being human.
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je da promašuje bit ljudskosti.
11:39
It's like we want to imagine
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To je kao da želimo zamisliti
11:41
that our minds are just these perfectly translucent windows
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da su naši umovi samo savršeno providni prozori
11:44
and we just gaze out of them
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i mi samo gledamo kroz njih
11:46
and describe the world as it unfolds.
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i opisujemo svijet kao što se odvija.
11:49
And we want everybody else to gaze out of the same window
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I želimo da svi drugi gledaju kroz taj isti prozor
11:51
and see the exact same thing.
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i vide upravo istu stvar.
11:53
That is not true,
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To nije istina,
11:55
and if it were, life would be incredibly boring.
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a kad bi i bila, život bi bio iznimno dosadan.
11:58
The miracle of your mind
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Čudo vašeg uma
12:01
isn't that you can see the world as it is.
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nije da vidite svijet kakav on jest.
12:05
It's that you can see the world as it isn't.
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Nego da vidite svijet kakav nije.
12:09
We can remember the past,
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Možemo upamtiti prošlost,
12:11
and we can think about the future,
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možemo razmišljati o budućnosti,
12:14
and we can imagine what it's like
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i zamišljati kako je to
12:16
to be some other person in some other place.
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biti neka druga osoba na nekom drugom mjestu.
12:19
And we all do this a little differently,
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I svi mi to radimo malo drugačije
12:21
which is why we can all look up at the same night sky
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i zato svi možemo gledati isto zvjezdano nebo
12:23
and see this
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i vidjeti ovo
12:25
and also this
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i ovo također
12:27
and also this.
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a i ovo.
12:30
And yeah, it is also why we get things wrong.
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I da, zbog toga neke stvari pogrešno shvaćamo.
12:34
1,200 years before Descartes said his famous thing
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Prije 1.200 godina Descartes je rekao poznatu rečenicu
12:36
about "I think therefore I am,"
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"Mislim, dakle jesam,"
12:38
this guy, St. Augustine, sat down
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ovaj tip, Sveti Augustin, sjeo je
12:40
and wrote "Fallor ergo sum" --
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i napisao " Fallor ergo sum" --
12:43
"I err therefore I am."
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"Griješim, dakle jesam."
12:47
Augustine understood
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Augustin je razumio
12:49
that our capacity to screw up,
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da naša sposobnost da zabrljamo
12:51
it's not some kind of embarrassing defect
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nije neka vrsta sramotnog defekta
12:53
in the human system,
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u ljudskom sustavu,
12:55
something we can eradicate or overcome.
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nešto što možemo iskorijeniti ili pobijediti.
12:58
It's totally fundamental to who we are.
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Ona je temelj onoga što jesmo.
13:01
Because, unlike God,
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Zato što za razliku od Boga
13:03
we don't really know what's going on out there.
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mi ne znamo što se doista događa vani.
13:06
And unlike all of the other animals,
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I za razliku od svih drugih životinja
13:09
we are obsessed with trying to figure it out.
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mi smo opsjednuti pokušajima da shvatimo.
13:13
To me, this obsession
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Za mene, ta opsjednutost
13:15
is the source and root
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je izvor i korijen
13:17
of all of our productivity and creativity.
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sve naše produktivnosti i kreativnosti.
13:20
Last year, for various reasons,
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Prošle godine, zbog različitih razloga,
13:23
I found myself listening to a lot of episodes
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slušala sam mnoge epizode
13:25
of the Public Radio show This American Life.
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emisije Javnog radija "This American Life".
13:27
And so I'm listening and I'm listening,
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I tako slušam ja i slušam,
13:30
and at some point, I start feeling
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i u nekom sam trenutku počela osjećati
13:33
like all the stories are about being wrong.
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kao da su sve priče o ljudima koji su u krivu.
13:37
And my first thought was,
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I moja je prva misao bila,
13:39
"I've lost it.
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"Izgubila sam.
13:41
I've become the crazy wrongness lady.
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Postala sam luda, greškama opsjednuta žena.
13:43
I just imagined it everywhere,"
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Zamišljam to posvuda,"
13:45
which has happened.
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što se i dogodilo.
13:47
But a couple of months later,
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Ali nekoliko mjeseci poslije
13:49
I actually had a chance to interview Ira Glass, who's the host of the show.
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imala sam priliku intervjuirati Ira Glassa, voditelja emisije.
13:51
And I mentioned this to him,
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I spomenula sam mu to
13:53
and he was like, "No actually, that's true.
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i on mi reče: "Zapravo, to je istina."
13:56
In fact," he says,
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"Zapravo", reče,
13:58
"as a staff, we joke
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"ekipa se šali
14:00
that every single episode of our show
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da baš svaka epizoda našeg šoua
14:02
has the same crypto-theme.
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ima istu skrivenu temu.
14:05
And the crypto-theme is:
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A ta skrivena tema je:
14:07
'I thought this one thing was going to happen
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'Mislio sam da će se dogoditi nešto
14:10
and something else happened instead.'
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a dogodilo se nešto drugo umjesto toga.'
14:13
And the thing is," says Ira Glass, "we need this.
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"U biti", kaže Ira Glass, "mi to trebamo."
14:16
We need these moments
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"Trebamo te trenutke
14:18
of surprise and reversal and wrongness
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iznenađenja, i preokrete, i pogrešnosti
14:20
to make these stories work."
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da bi te priče imale uspjeh."
14:22
And for the rest of us, audience members,
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A mi ostali, publika,
14:24
as listeners, as readers,
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kao slušatelji, kao čitatelji
14:27
we eat this stuff up.
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mi gutamo takve priče.
14:29
We love things like plot twists
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Volimo zaplete radnji
14:32
and red herrings and surprise endings.
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i lažne tragove, i neočekivane završetke.
14:35
When it comes to our stories,
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Kada je riječ o našim pričama,
14:38
we love being wrong.
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volimo biti u krivu.
14:41
But, you know, our stories are like this
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Ali, znate, naše su priče ovakve
14:43
because our lives are like this.
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jer su naši životi takvi.
14:46
We think this one thing is going to happen
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Mislimo da će se dogoditi jedno
14:49
and something else happens instead.
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a umjesto toga dogodi se nešto drugo.
14:52
George Bush thought he was going to invade Iraq,
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George Bush je mislio da će napasti Irak,
14:54
find a bunch of weapons of mass destruction,
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pronaći gomilu oružja za masovno uništenje,
14:56
liberate the people and bring democracy to the Middle East.
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osloboditi narod i uvesti demokraciju na Bliski Istok.
15:00
And something else happened instead.
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A umjesto toga dogodilo se nešto drugo.
15:03
And Hosni Mubarak
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I Hosni Mubarak
15:05
thought he was going to be the dictator of Egypt for the rest of his life,
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je mislio da će biti diktator Egipta do kraja života,
15:07
until he got too old or too sick
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sve dok ne bude prestar ili prebolestan
15:09
and could pass the reigns of power onto his son.
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i dok ne bude mogao prenijeti vlast na svog sina.
15:12
And something else happened instead.
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I umjesto toga dogodilo se nešto drugo.
15:16
And maybe you thought
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I možda ste vi mislili
15:18
you were going to grow up and marry your high school sweetheart
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da ćete odrasti i vjenčati se sa starom ljubavi iz školskih dana
15:20
and move back to your hometown and raise a bunch of kids together.
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i vratiti se u rodni grad i zajedno odgojiti mnogo djece.
15:24
And something else happened instead.
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I dogodilo se nešto drugo umjesto toga.
15:27
And I have to tell you
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I moram vam reći
15:29
that I thought I was writing an incredibly nerdy book
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da sam mislila da pišem izuzetno glupu knjigu
15:31
about a subject everybody hates
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o temi koju svi mrze
15:33
for an audience that would never materialize.
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za publiku koja nikad neće postojati.
15:36
And something else happened instead.
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I umjesto toga dogodilo se nešto drugo.
15:38
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
15:40
I mean, this is life.
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Mislim, to je život.
15:42
For good and for ill,
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U dobru i zlu,
15:44
we generate these incredible stories
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mi stvaramo te nevjerojatne priče
15:47
about the world around us,
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o svijetu oko nas,
15:49
and then the world turns around and astonishes us.
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a onda se svijet okrene i zadivi nas.
15:55
No offense, but this entire conference
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Bez uvrede, ali cijela ova konferencija
15:58
is an unbelievable monument
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je nevjerojatan spomenik
16:00
to our capacity to get stuff wrong.
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našeg kapaciteta da stvari odu ukrivo.
16:02
We just spent an entire week
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Proveli smo cijeli tjedan
16:04
talking about innovations and advancements
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govoreći o inovacijama i napretku,
16:06
and improvements,
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i poboljšanjima,
16:08
but you know why we need all of those innovations
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ali znate zašto trebamo sve te inovacije,
16:11
and advancements and improvements?
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i napredak, i poboljšanja?
16:13
Because half the stuff
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Zato što pola od toga
16:15
that's the most mind-boggling and world-altering --
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što je najzbunjujuće i najrevolucionarnije --
16:18
TED 1998 --
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TED 1998. --
16:20
eh.
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eh.
16:22
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:26
Didn't really work out that way, did it?
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Nije baš ispalo tako kako smo zamišljali, zar ne?
16:28
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:30
Where's my jet pack, Chris?
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Gdje je moje leteće odijelo, Chris?
16:33
(Laughter)
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(Smijeh)
16:37
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
16:42
So here we are again.
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I evo nas opet.
16:45
And that's how it goes.
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I tako to ide.
16:47
We come up with another idea.
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Lansiramo neku drugu ideju.
16:49
We tell another story.
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Ispričamo neku drugu priču.
16:52
We hold another conference.
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Održimo drugu konferenciju.
16:55
The theme of this one,
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Tema ove je,
16:57
as you guys have now heard seven million times,
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kao što ste dosad čuli već sedam milijuna puta,
16:59
is the rediscovery of wonder.
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je ponovno otkrivanje čuda.
17:01
And to me,
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I za mene to znači,
17:03
if you really want to rediscover wonder,
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ako stvarno želite ponovno otkriti čudo
17:06
you need to step outside
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morate izići
17:08
of that tiny, terrified space of rightness
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iz tog malenog, strašnog mjesta ispravnosti
17:14
and look around at each other
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i pogledati uokolo jedni u druge
17:17
and look out at the vastness
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i pogledati u prostranstvo
17:20
and complexity and mystery
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i složenost, i misterij
17:23
of the universe
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univerzuma
17:26
and be able to say,
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i biti u stanju reći:
17:29
"Wow, I don't know.
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"Vau, ne znam.
17:33
Maybe I'm wrong."
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Možda sam u krivu."
17:35
Thank you.
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Hvala.
17:37
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
17:40
Thank you guys.
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Hvala vam.
17:42
(Applause)
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(Pljesak)
ABOUT THE SPEAKER
Kathryn Schulz - WrongologistKathryn Schulz is a staff writer for the New Yorker and is the author of "Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error."
Why you should listen
Kathryn Schulz is a journalist, author, and public speaker with a credible (if not necessarily enviable) claim to being the world's leading wrongologist. She is the author of Being Wrong: Adventures in the Margin of Error. She was previously the book critic for New York Magazine; her writing has also appeared in the New York Times Magazine, Rolling Stone, TIME Magazine, the Boston Globe, the "Freakonomics" blog of The New York Times, The Nation, Foreign Policy, and the New York Times Book Review, among other publications. She is the former editor of the online environmental magazine Grist, and a former reporter and editor for The Santiago Times, of Santiago, Chile, where she covered environmental, labor, and human rights issues. She was a 2004 recipient of the Pew Fellowship in International Journalism (now the International Reporting Project), and has reported from throughout Central and South America, Japan, and, most recently, the Middle East. A graduate of Brown University and a former Ohioan, Oregonian and Brooklynite, she currently lives in New York's Hudson Valley.
Kathryn Schulz | Speaker | TED.com